tv The Place for Politics 2016 MSNBC October 2, 2016 6:00am-7:01am PDT
ants needed to give my shop... a face... no one will forget. see what the power of points can do for your business. learn more at chase.com/ink good morning, everyone, i'm alex witt in new york at msnbc world headquarters. it's 9:00 in the east, 6:00 a.m. in the west. here's what's happening, tax hit. a new report suggests donald trump could have avoided paying on his federal income for years. there's new reaction from trump's campaign this morning. nearly a week since the debate, what do the polls show? the take from an expert in the field. >> it hillary knew, she would have done it already, end of story, i won the debate, stayed calm, just like i promised, and it's over. good night, hofstra. >> donald, donald, there's still 88 minutes left. it's a 90-minute debate.
>> my microphone is broken. >> you got to laugh. spoofing the debate, "saturday night live." and the latest on the day's other big story, bracing for a hurricane as matthew spins near jamaica. the question this morning, will it track toward the u.s.? let's begin with that exclusive report from "the new york times." trump declared a $916 million loss on his 1995 income tax returns, a tax deduction so substantial it could have allowed him to legally avoid paying any federal income taxes for up to 18 years, but we can't know if he actually did avoid paying. less than two hours ago trump tweeted i know our complex tax laws better than anyone who has ever run for president and the only one who can fix them.
the only news here is that the more than 20-year-old alleged tax document was illegally obtained. mr. trump is a highly skilled businessman who has a fi fiduciary responsibility. trump has not said what information his tax returns contain, however, he's said in the past he's paid hundreds of millions in taxes over the years. meanwhile trump is laying out a new line of attack against hillary clinton and former president bill clinton. here's what he told supporters at a rally in pennsylvania last night. >> hillary clinton's only loyalty is to her financial contributors and to herself. i don't even think she's loyal to bill, if you want to know the truth. and really, folks, really, why should she be, right? why should she be? >> the clinton campaign is
boasting this morning about its best fundraising month yet. officials say the democratic ticket brought in more than $154 million in september, $84 million for the campaign and $90 million for the dnc and state parties. "snl" with its take on the election. kate mackinnon reprised her role as clinton and alec baldwin was the republican nominee. >> all the blacks live on one street in chicago, all in one street. i visited them this morning, it's hell street. on hell street they are all just killing each other, just like i am killing this debate. >> secretary clinton, did you have a response? >> not a response, more of a request, can america vote right now? >> we're going to talk more about the report on trump's
taxes. i have to tell you, katie, everyone in the studio, we're cracking up watching that "snl." that was just so rich. i know you're following the campaign. in terms of the taxes, what more are you hearing about this? not hearing anything from the campaign, i've made calls, nobody is answering, but they did release a statement last night and donald trump is tweeting this morning. it's been one of the worst weeks so far for trump and it's gotten worse. an anonymous tipster sent a copy of trump's 1995 tax returns saying he could have avoided paying federal income tax for 20 years. the campaign is crying foul but they are not denying this, and their candidate is trying to change the subject by attacking clinton's marriage. >> thank you. >> reporter: this morning, an october surprise for donald trump. "the new york times" reporting he declared a $916 million loss on his 1995 income tax returns. why is this important? it was a loss so big trump could have skipped paying any federal
income tax for up to 18 years, and that would have been legal. the question of what trump did or did not pay remains unanswered this morning. he says he won't release his tax returns because he's being audited. >> do you pay federal income tax now? >> returns will be released as soon as -- >> the trump campaign releasing a response to the article overnight, stating that the businessman has paid hundreds of millions in city, state, and federal taxes over the years and that, "he has a fiduciary responsibility to his business, his family, and his employees to pay no more tax than legally requi required." a point trump made when hillary clinton raised the same charge in last monday's presidential debate. >> and they showed he didn't pay any federal income tax. >> that makes me smart. >> reporter: the clinton campaign quick to pounce, calling it a bomb shell report and saying he apparently got to avoid paying taxes for nearly two decades, while tens of
millions of working families pay theirs. he called that smart. now the gig is up. why doesn't he go ahead and release his returns to show us all how smart he really is. trump didn't address the tax story last night in pennsylvania and instead mocking clinton for stumbling to get into her car at the 9/11 memorial. and accusing her without evidence of cheating on her husband. >> hillary clinton's only loyalty is to her financial contributors and to herself. i don't even think she's loyal to bill, if you want to know the truth. and really, folks, really, why should she be, right? why should she be? >> reporter: and donald trump is already awake this morning tweeting, "i know our complex tax laws more than anyone who's
run for president. i'm the only one who can fix them." if trump ultimately refuses to release his returns, it will be the first time a major party candidate has not done so since 1980. romney did it in 2012 saying he paid about a 14% tax rate, clinton did it this year saying she and her husband bill paid about a 34% rate. alex, they are not deny right now he did not pay federal income tax for about 18 years and they are not denying he's paid federal income tax, or has not paid federal income tax, this year. >> again, we won't know, because they won't be releasing the tax returns until the audit is over, presumably, if mr. trump sticks by what he said in the past. k katy, thank you so much for that. >> member of trump's national hispanic advisory council, what is your response to mr. trump is not denying they've not paid federal taxes. we have no way of knowing what is happening, because no one has access to them, other than what's been leaked from "the new
york times" from 20 years ago. >> they didn't deny or confirm either. what they have said is mr. trump has paid hundreds of millions in taxes in total. his property tax bills alone are gargantuan because of the property taxes he owns. i think a couple things are important here, one is this is really an incredible comeback story. in the early 1990s, most big real estate developers went belly up and donald trump had enormous problems. he talks about them at length in his book "the art of the comeback", so this is an incredible comeback story that he came from near insolvency in the '90s to today, a multibillionaire. i don't think he should be criticized that he's come from the depths and rallied and created tons of wealth. secondly, it points to the tax code and he's the first to say this, our tax code is an albatross on america, far too
complicate. only tax lawyers can understand it and there are a lot of loopholes that benefit those out there. he wants a simplified tax code where we don't have the loopholes and much, much lower rates so america can grow at the capacity we're capable of. >> steve, can you understand, though, when people say this guy lost almost a billion dollars in one year. i grant you the spin is he's come back and he wrote the book chronicling that, and that's great, but there was a really bad year. >> listen, no doubt about it. we had a severe recession in the early 1990s, real estate was particularly hard hit. i'm not trying to avoid that and neither does he. he's been transparent about that, he had an extremely rough run. mr. trump has gotten incredibly wealthy not once, but twice. he did it in the '80s until that period and the economy at large did poorly and he made a few very bad decisions in terms of his debt levels in those days, but again, very few successful people, just a straight stair
step up to the sky, if you look at the history of most great moguls and leaders in america history, they have tremendous ups and sometimes tremendous downs. thankfully ever since then it's been mostly a stair step up for donald trump economically. what's important is not him. i think most americans care about their taxes and they know their taxes are too high and their incomes are too low. and we have a plan to solve that, whereas hillary clinton says, status quo, more of the same. >> you know, steve, he's not an ordinary businessman now. he is running for president of the united states. that is a position to which most people look up and admire, and they cannot relate to somebody who's not paid federal taxes. again, can't confirm he hasn't, but he hasn't denied that he hasn't. >> right. we don't know that he hasn't, but what we do know now and what "the times" did was illegal and against federal law to publicize these taxes, but regardless, we know he took an enormous loss.
we don't know how much taxes he's paid in federal income taxes. he's paid hundreds of millions in payroll taxes, sales taxes, property taxes. >> we get that, steve, but federal taxes, let's get to that. in the debate, and he's said on the campaign trail we need to fix our systems, education, infrastructure, the broken roads, this, that, and the other. he says he's the right choice to fix our crooked system, but he has apparently taken advantage of that exact system to get out of paying taxes for some years, which he says makes him smart. how do you expect voters to trust him from a system he's benefited so hugely? >> fair question, but i think most americans respect using every legal tactic to pay as little as they can in taxes. as americans, we hate taxes and all of us will do what we can within the law to avoid paying taxes. what i would say, don't hate the player, hate the game. the game is rigged.
it's crony capitalism out of d.c. and the tax code is exhibit "a" in that rotten system and mr. trump wants to smash the current tax code, wants to smash special interests and have a simplified, flat, and far lower rated tax system. >> steve, whatever criticism is coming from speculation about mr. trump and his lack of paying taxes and the like, isn't he, himself, to blame for letting this story balloon out of control, for not getting out in front of it, just releasing his tax returns? >> hindsight is 20/20, perhaps. how was he going to know "the new york times" would illegally obtain documents? >> they wouldn't have had to if he put it out there, right? >> point taken, point taken. here's what's important, too, and what i'm going to focus on and what i think mr. trump should focus on. while he's had troubles in his business career, certainly, serious troubles, on the whole his career has been one of building magnificent buildings, of creating wealth here and all over the world.
conversely, the clintons have got to generationally rich by selling, what, speeches? does anybody really believe you could make a quarter billion from speeches only, or are you selling access? i think we want to provide that contrast so mr. trump has built amazing, tangible businesses. the clintons have become as rich as he is and how? selling influence. people understand that. >> i can't let you go without asking about another big story this week, that's the fact you sit on trump's hispanic advisory council. what's the response to the dust-up of alicia machado. does it offend you at all he called machado ms. housekeeping? >> if he did. he denies this story. i think she's a very discredited accuser and i don't want to deal with some two decade old beauty pageant story. i don't think it's relevant. what's relevant today is how does mr. trump treat women. our campaign is run by an extremely strong woman, kellyanne conway, so i think he
admires women, empowers them, regarding hispanics, i've been incredibly impressed with his outreach of voters with color, something the republican party hasn't done diligently or at all over recent decades, so i give credit credit for actions, not accusations of comments from 20 years ago. >> all right, thanks for joining me, appreciate it. >> thanks, alex. how much weight will it have on the minds of voters? plus, why the race is as tight as it is. all next. sprint? i'm hearing gd things about the network. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your business to sprint and save 50% on most current verizon, at&t and t-mobile rates. don't let a 1% difference cost you twice as much. whoooo! for people with hearing loss, visit sprintrelay.com.
want real change. >> former presidential candidate bernie sanders just moments ago responding to "the new york times" report trump may have avoided paying federal income taxes for decades. we must note we cannot know if trump actually did avoid paying. joining me now, betsy woodruff, ladies, good morning and welcome to you both. i'll start with you, the new york times piece on donald trump's taxes, what do you think it reveals most and what do we learn that's significant? >> yeah, alex, i think it's important to say what kind of person are you going to elect for president. donald trump basically says, look, i was doing my fiduciary responsibility to my stockholders to pay as little amount of taxes as possible, but it's akin to are we going to elect exxon, who's going to take advantage of every loophole or elect something more like apple or a company more responsible, warren buffett is another great
example, somebody who says the system is broken, my secretary should not pay more taxes than i do, i want to pay more taxes, so i'm going to volunteer that. it's an example of somebody who takes advantage of the system and someone who takes advantage of the system and supports the system. >> there was a report, "a further demonstration that the new york times, like establishment media in general is an extension of the clinton campaign, the democratic party, and their global special interest." does this allow trump to blame the media for this? >> i think that's a little bit of a copout. remember back before the dnc when hackers broke into the democratic national committee's e-mail system and released tons of information that wasn't supposed to be public, trump praised them for that, even though now we're fairly confident there were russian hackers behind that leak, which was daeflt illegal. encouraged hackers, but now he's
getting a taste of that same medicine of his private information that he didn't want public becoming public, we get this sank moan yous tone that certainly doesn't comport well with what he said earlier when the same misfortune befell his opponents, so there's a glaring inconsistency. >> despite what you've offered as the dvt ways to interpret this, i'm curious, could it have the romney 47% comment impact? >> it could absolutely have the romney 47% impact, more so than anything else we've seen so far this cycle, because the man lost nearly a billion dollars and potentially didn't pay federal taxes for 18 years. that's a huge -- that's a huge bomb shell, really. anyone who is -- any normal american, everyday american looking to say here's an everyday guy, i want to elect president, it really shows this vast gulf of a difference between he clearly isn't somebody who's walked in their
shoes and he makes this case that somehow he knows the system better than anybody else, therefore, he's going to overhaul it and change it better than anybody else, but he knows a system that's for the top 1%. he doesn't understand being a regular middle class or low income worker here. >> hard to make a case to be the populous candidate with the numbers here. do you think this qualifies as an october surprise, might it have an effect as a october surprise? >> i think without a doubt and it's an inversion of romney's 47% comment. romney got in trouble expressing disdain for voters who didn't make enough to pay taxes, while trump now is getting criticism for intimating or implying that people who do pay taxes are not smart enough, that he somehow deserves credit for himself not paying taxes. that's really surprising and something that's going to bother voters. i watched the debate on monday with a group of undecided pennsylvania voters who were having a focus group outside philly and had overwhelmingly
negative reactions when trump made that comment. afterwards, voters in the focus group said that was one of the lowest points in the debate and made them much more hesitant to support him than they had been before watching it. this forces that into the focus and is going to remind people trump hasn't been transparent about his personal finances, even though he's made a wealth, it's a huge problem for him. i think it's going to be tough to overstate the significant of the report. >> certainly one of the most memorable lines of the debate. that's for sure. this has been one of the worst weeks in memory for any presidential candidate. here's donald trump from a rally in pennsylvania last night. >> the american people have had it with years and decades of clinton corruption and scandal. remember he got impeached for lying. you remember what he lied about, but he got impeached for lying. you know, trump even went on to suggest last night secretary
clinton has been unfaithful to her husband. you get a sense from the trump camp how they might try to bounce back and is this the sort of smart strategy for an attack? is this a good choice? >> no. look, kellyanne conway, few people on the republican side that know women voters as well as kellyanne conway does. she spent decades on it, and the last really from mid-august when she took over the campaign and for the last couple of months he's done really well trying to do a better job appealing to women voters. you saw him getting bumps in the polls and you see her course correcting him. for example, the idea of bringing gennifer flowers to the debate, you know, they floated that, then that was really kellyanne conway pushing back saying that's not a great idea, because, frankly, the demographic he needs to win here, married white women, don't like the idea of having hillary clinton face off with her husband's former paramore in the audience. going after her for those affairs, his affairs, saying she
might have affairs, that only turns off that demographic of married white women. they really don't like to hear those kinds of attacks. they really want to hear economic messages, they want to hear messages that he's not r s racist, they want to hear messages of national security, that he's going to keep them safe, but they don't want to be talking about infidelities and that's not a great strategy for them moving forward. >> okay, ladies, unfortunately i'm out of time. which means, betsy, i'll start with you next time. nbc's "saturday night live" returns to weigh in on the white house. coming up, the cast pokes fun at last week's debate. >> my microphone is broken. she broke it with obama. she and obama stole my microphone. took it to kenya, took my microphone to kenya and broke it and now it's broken. can you hear that? it was picking up somebody sniffing. it's the phillips' lady!
saturday night live weighed in with its take on the debate. alec baldwin and kate mackinnon squaring off at the podium. >> i mean, this man is clearly unfit to be commander-in-chief. he is a bully. >> wrong. shut up. >> he started the birther movement. >> you did. >> he says climate change is a hoax invented by china. >> it's pronounced gina. >> he hasn't released his tax returns, which means he's either not that rich -- >> wrong. >> not that charitable -- >> wrong. >> or he's never paid taxes in his life. >> warmer. >> he spent his life cheating middle class laborers, like my own human father, who made, i guess, drapes or printed drapes or sold drapes. something with drapes. he was relatable and i am also relatable. >> well, other election theme sketches included the game show
"family feud." so glad they are back. donald trump's political attack, how can it change upcoming rallies in the debate after a new report about his tax returns. yeah. well, we gotta hand it to fedex. they've helped make our e-commerce so easy, and now we're getting all kinds of new customers. i know. can you believe we're getting orders from canada, ireland... this one's going to new zealand. new zealand? psst. ah, false alarm. hey! you guys are gonna scare away the deer! idiots... providing global access for small business. fedex.
welcome back, everyone, i'm alex witt at msnbc world headquarters in new york. here's what we're monitoring for you. hurricane matthew in the caribbean. the category 4 storm is heading towards jamaica and haiti and could brush eastern cuba, packing winds about 150 miles an hour. we're going to take you to jamaica in just a bit. about the train crash in hoboken, new jersey, crews are having trouble removing the train because of safety issues inside the damaged station. they are also trying to look at a video that could provide crucial information. investigators won't say what came from the first interview with the train's engineer yesterday. on the new york times report trump may have avoided paying federal income taxes for two
decades according to documents the times obtained. we must note we cannot tell if trump did avoid paying. here's what rudy giuliani told my colleague chuck todd moments ago on "meet the press." >> this points out one of the reasons why releasing tax returns is so bad. "the new york times" writes this long story and somewhere around paragraph 18 point out there was no wrong doing. the reality is, he's a genius. what he did was, he took advantage -- >> okay. >> -- of something that could save his enterprise and did something we admire in america, he came back. a lot of the people that are poor take advantage of loopholes and pay no taxes. those are loopholes also. >> let's bring in jonathan alter and kathleen parker, syndicated writer at "the washington post." awfully glad to have you both here. ladies first, curious, kathleen, what do you think of rudy giuliani's spin there? >> rudy continues to surprise us, i think. he keeps saying the oddest
things, such as that donald trump is a genius. but he's saying that basically, look, everybody tries to get away with paying as few taxes as they can and mr. trump has taken advantage of laws that allow him to escape the tax man. now, when we say that we don't know for sure whether he took advantage of the 18-year window that he had to avoid income taxes, i think it's pretty fair to assume that he did take advantage of it. as he says, it that would make him a smart businessman. i think it's awkward, though, rudy giuliani's defense of trump is this is a virtue to avoid paying income taxes is to me disturbing and offputting to americans like myself, who actually struggle to pay their taxes each year and wish they had all those loopholes available to them. so i don't think it helps him with the middle class that he claims to want to help. >> what about you, jonathan, big picture here, how important is
it really if trump avoided paying his taxes for so long? do you think this would have an impact on a trump presidency or is this just for now a great headline? >> well, yeah, of course it would have an impact on a trump presidency, because instead of going after the rigged system as he claims he wants to, his proposals just allow the rich to pay even less in taxes. look, if he was coming out and saying i know all the games, i know all the schemes, i have a tax reform plan that will close these loopholes and end this outrage, that would be one thing, but he doesn't have that plan. his plan just reduces taxes further. and his rhetoric really separates him from the bulk of the american people. it reminds me of another real estate developer in new york, a woman named leona helmsly, whose son years ago was called the queen of mean because of her nastiness, her trump-like nastiness. when she was caught not paying
any taxes she said, "only the little people pay taxes." that's trump's basic view, only stupid people who can't hire high-priced attorneys and accounta accountants, only they are the ones who pay the taxes in the country, to pay for the veterans, to pay for the infrastructure, to pay for social security and medicare, all the things that trump says he wants for the american people, who's going to pay for them if not him? so i think this will cost him and should cost him. >> to the extent of being, jonathan, like a romney 47% moment? >> well, we can hope so, except in this case he's one of the takers, not makers. you know, the republicans for a long time in that campaign and the years since, have been very critical of the fact poor people pay no taxes. remember that, that was one of their talking points just a year ago. they are not saying that anymore, are they? suddenly they don't care the poor aren't paying taxes because
they are trying to justify the rich not paying taxes and, no, it's not true everybody takes these kinds of loopholes and as trump's own accountant said, dramatically increase their net worth without paying taxes. nice work if you can find it, only possible with the help of high priced accountants that 99.9% of americans can't afford. >> you know, kathleen, your latest piece, i love the title, "trump was mean to a beauty queen. how is this news." you're arguing the story shouldn't be news to anyone but it is still important. how so? >> look, it's important and reaffirming what so many of us have been saying all along, which is donald trump has this habit of being cruel toward people. he's the only person i can think of who actually goes out of his way to purposely hurt people's feelings, to denigrate them, whether it's telling this beauty queen she was miss piggy or implying that the mexicans --
mexican immigrants are rapists and other kinds of criminals, but he's -- when i said this was not news, i meant, listen, where have you people been? this is donald trump, this is the way he's always been and this is the way he will always be. don't ever think for a minute he's going to suddenly change. women learn early that you don't change men, they are what they are. they can behave for a couple of years, but they are going to get back to who they are. i guess the same could be said to women, i don't want to appear to be sexist, but when people seem so surprised by this, gosh, this is who he's always been, and the fact that this has been used to bait him, essentially, it was so clear, so obvious in that moment when hillary clinton tossed out the bait and she, obviously, had some background on this woman and now we know had been talking -- her campaign had been talking to alicia machado since summer, so this was all set up. and donald trump, having been
through all these months and months and months of campaign and having been a deal maker, you know, about which he brags incessantly, hard to believe he's such a good deal maker if he always runs for the debate -- sorry, runs for the bait the second it's thrown out. he's the one that's created this controversy. he could have dismissed it in that moment and it would have been over with. >> well, in this debate trump did not, as many expected, attack hillary clinton about her husband's infidelity, but "the new york times" is reporting she is ready for that in the second debate. >> i don't think he'll ultimately do it, because he's a coward and can't in the room do it, if he did, it's very easy for her to dismiss that and say let's talk about the problems facing the american people. she won't have any problem at all pivoting off that question and she's prepared for it, but i think the bigger question we want to ask is, what does this
behavior tell us about what trump would be like if god forbid he became president of the united states. he can never let it rest. he's always got to prove he's right, even when it hurts him politically, which is what's going on right now. that's where the thing with alicia machado is important, he can't let it go. so what happens if you have a president who can't let it go? the answer, that's what starts wars. this is how wars start. with taunts, insults, not being able to let an insult go, having to prove you're right, unable to back down. we will, i am 100% sure, given what we know about donald trump, we will have a war of some kind should he become president. we could if hillary becomes president, too, but in trump's case we know for sure that his temperament will lead us into a war. >> i don't know i can say that
with such certitude, but i think it bears saying, repeating what i concluded in my column today, he can't control himself. and that's a very concerning attribute or quality to have. if you can't control yourself, under what circumstances are you going to control yourself. >> i want to ask you another aspect, kathleen, because he seemed to have trouble arguing his points and there appeared to be openings he could have prepared some blows. do you think it's he doesn't know enough to explain them or doesn't care to explain them? >> well, it's much easier to avoid answering a question than to answer it if you don't know enough and i think that's probably the case with donald trump. i think he's a mile wide and inch deep and once he starts talking, he's going to quickly run out of words, so he segues to something else that's not important or irrelevant. if you read some of the answers
that he did give during that debate, it's helpful to print out the transcript and read it, because there are times when absolutely nothing makes any sense. it's really kind of almost sad. at a certain point you begin to think, well, should i be feeling sorry for this person because he's obviously in the wrong place. >> feeling sorry for him? the guy is on the verge of possibly becoming president of the united states. unfortunately what's going on, alex, is all over the country people who want to prevent this from happening, some who strongly support hillary clinton, some who weakly support her, are manning phone banks even if they are not in battleground states, and trying to prevent these very, very serious consequences from our country. so maybe after the election we can feel sorry for him. right now, he must be stopped. >> i totally agree with that. >> i want to let that be the last word. thanks, guys, appreciate it. in the meantime, we're tracking one of the most powerful hurricanes in years. we'll take you to the storm in a
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most allergy pills only control one inflammatory substance. flonase controls 6. and six is greater than one. flonase changes everything. ♪ we are following this breaking news this morning, preparations under way now as hurricane matthew sets its sights on the caribbean. this category 4 storm is threatening jamaica, haiti, and eastern cuba. joining me now, wnbc meteorologist raphael miranda. good morning, let's get to the latest and what's happening with the storm. how big is it? >> it's going to be a large, destructive impact, unfortunately, for the caribbean. alex, we're also concerned here in the u.s. from florida up to new england. we may have to be concerned, as well. i'll show you why with the computer models in just a minute. this is the latest snapshot of major hurricane matthew now, a category 4 storm. you can see the outer bands starting to lash the coastline of haiti and jamaica, as well. and these winds are amazing, 150 miles per hour. we're seeing gusts up to 185 miles per hour. and the movement has been very
slow at the northwest around 5 miles per hour. it will take a northerly turn later today, into tomorrow morning, potentially making landfall late tomorrow along the haitian coastline as a category 3 hurricane. we're talking about besides the wind damage, potential for rainfall over 25, even up to 40 inches of rain, which could cause devastating mudslides and also flash flooding, especially for haiti, but also for jamaica and eastern cuba. then matthew heads into the bahamas. this is wednesday, thursday, and friday just off the southeast coast, and these are the latest computer models, and this is why we're concerned. this is thursday night, into friday, both the european model and the american model have matthew as a strong hurricane hugging the coastline of the southeast and then maybe even moving up the coast. that's not the forecast right now. that may not happen, but the fact that both models are showing that has us very concerned and we'll be tracking the storm very closely over the next few days and get a better
idea of where it's headed probably by tuesday. alex? >> okay, thank you for tracking that, lots to follow. let's go to morgan radford in kingston, jamaica, where residents are stocking up on emergency supplies there. good morning to you, what's it like out there right now? >> reporter: alex, this is what you call the calm before the storm here in kingston, jamaica, but people here are nervous, they are stocking up on supplies, boarding up their homes. you can also see where they are stocking up on dry food, batteries, bottled water, but what's interesting here, everyone we've spoken to, it's not only hurricane matthew on their minds, but also hurricane gilbert, in 1988 when hurricane gilbert, a category 3 struck here and the island was out of lek trisry for almost three months. they have respect for what the hurricanes can do and the severity can bring. we expect that hurricane matthew will hit here, the eye of the storm, tomorrow, but tonight we
could see tropical storm conditions and then once it hits on monday, we expect it to move on into cuba, but we're expecting ten to 20 inches of rain, and that's why people here are getting prepared for the worst. alex? >> just extraordinary to see a beautiful day today and in a matter of hours that is going to change. morgan radford, thank you from kingston. back to politics in a moment with a state that's seen a reversal of fortunes for one candidate. what's making the difference? and you need a hero? the action series is based in harlem. click on nbc blk on the nbc news page for interviews with the stars from the new netflix series. >> something i think people can relate to, they are kind of frustrated with the way things are playing out. they are also feeling inspired by this character, because they say to themselves, if they had a power, a super power, what would it be, and this seems a cool one to have. i think innately all people are
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back to politics. new poll this is morning. an abc news/"washington post" post-poll shows 53% consider hillary clinton the clear winner of the first debate. just 18% consider donald trump the winner. a post-debate general election poll from fox news has clinton leading among likely voters with 43% to trump's 40%. joining me now is patrick murray, the director of monmouth university polling institute. good to have you on the show. let's talk about the numbers. patrick, how much do you think of the general election three-point margin there can be attributed to clinton and trump's performances at the first presidential debate.
>> nearly all of it right now. just a couple weeks ago we saw the polls tightening. the average of the polls used to be a tied race or with trump a slight lead. now the average of the polls shows hillary clinton with a slight lead. there's an expectation we'll see more because the more days we get away from the debate it seems the better hillary clinton has been doing. >> what about the second presidential debate one week from tonight? what's on the line for clinton and trump going into that? does history suggest anything? >> well, it's a town hall style debate so this is going to be really interesting. we've seen some fascinating things happen in those. if you remember one of those was back in 1992, bill clinton did really well in that debate, really connected with people. back in 2000 that was the debate where al gore just invaded george w. bush's space. >> oh, right. >> so these are the debates
where people -- because -- and why this is important is because the thing that these numbers and the polls are turning on is not what their stance is on the issues, it's their character, their personality, their temperament. that is what is moving the poll numbers. so those town hall debates are the ones where you have to interact with people and you have to show that you understand the kinds of concerns that they are. and it's very close up so if he -- you launch the kind of attacks that donald trump did at the very end of the first debate it doesn't play as well. it plays even worse in a town hall style debate and we would see those numbers in the polls. >> patrick, do you think donald trump can or do you expect him to turn around the performance from the first debate this second time? because it's been suggested by many it was historically bad. >> i think you need to have a clinical psychologist on to answer that question because that seems to be a very deep-seeded personality issue.
he's doubled down on the worst aspects of the debate. the parts of the debate that made his numbers go down, he doubled down and kept them in the news which is why i think we'll see worse numbers for him in the polls coming out in the coming week. >> so one of your recent poll there is from monmouth university asked voters whether this election cycle has brought out the best or worst in people. the results are pretty darn stark. 70% saying the presidential race has brought out the worst. what could this signal about potential voter turnout on election day? >> well, it's hard to say because we've never seen anything like this. usually we know when there's a negative campaign, when there's a lot of mudslinging, that keeps voters away. but usually that's a senate race or gubernatorial race when that plays out. and there's a lot of people who hate one or the other of these candidates so much that they
have to vote in order to keep them from the white house. so it might not affect a turnout at all because of the negative motivation. >> all right, patrick murray. always good to see you. we'll see you again soon no doubt. i'm alex witt, thanks so much for watching. i'll see you at noon eastern when we speak to debbye turner bell. up next on "a.m. joy" the power of comedy in the presidential campaign. the pursuit of healthier.
and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier we're here to make healthier happen. >> maybe he doesn't want the american people, all of you watching tonight, the know that he's paid nothing in federal taxes. because the only years that anybody's ever seen were a couple of years when he had to turn them over to state authorities when he was trying to get a casino license and they showed he didn't pay any federal income tax. so -- >> that makes me smart. >> good morning and welcome to "a.m. joy." donald trump continues to withhold his tax returns. he says it's because he's being audited and has been every