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tv   MSNBC Live With Stephanie Ruhle  MSNBC  November 1, 2016 6:00am-7:01am PDT

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>> no. >> mickey lolich. the tigers and the cardinals. he won game one, four, and seven. and was he the tiger -- >> the left hander. >> the one who hit the home run? i think lolich hit a home run. >> that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. >> thank you, mika. randy johnson, i'm going to say one of the best baseball names ever. good morning. i'm stephanie ruhle. we have breaking news. state of the race. a new poll has donald trump leading nationally while others show clinton holding on to her lead. we're going to cut through that noise. and breaking overnight, oppo dump. a flood of bad stories for donald trump. the fbi looking into his former campaign manager's ties to russia. the "new york times" digs deeper into his taxes, alleging he, quote, used legally dubious
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methods to avoid paying them. and now reporting that the fbi director did not want to state russia was tied to the clinton campaign hacking for fear that would affect the election. hillary clinton is seizing on those stories. >> donald trump should immediately disclose all of his ties and connections to the kremlin and its associates. >> let's walk you through the timeline. the fbi is saying they're moving as fast as they can on her e-mails. democrats are blasting back. they want answers. >> there is no case here. >> and donald trump doing a pretty good job staying on message. >> hillary is the one who broke the law over and over and over again. >> we begin today with the state of the race, with exactly seven days to go. hope you have the energy for it. our new poll shows hillary clinton up by six. but there's another now showing that trump is in a slight lead.
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can you guess which one mr. trump is tweeting about this morning? here's a quote for you. wow, now leading in abc/"washington post" poll, 46 to 45. gone up 12 points in two weeks. mostly before the crooked hillary blow-up. guess what we're going to need to do. break all of this down. we have a team of correspondents and analysts to help us do that. i want to start with msnbc's steve kornacki. steve, i need you to help us. i want to start -- well, first of all, donald trump, who for weeks has been saying polls schmolls, they're broken. they oversample democrats. they stink. they're the worst. well, he doesn't think this abc poll is the worst? >> interestingly, stephanie, this is the particular poll that donald trump was talking about, about a week ago, when he went on one of those rants about the supposedly rigged polls. it was specifically the abc news/"washington post" tracking poll he was talking about. at the time, that poll had donald trump falling behind by
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12 points. well, here we are, what a difference a week makes. that same poll this morning is out with this number you just showed a minute ago. 46/45 for donald trump. they have trump ahead by a point. now, crucially again, this is a tracking poll, so you're getting responses in here that have come since that announcement by the fbi that they're reviewing more e-mails from hillary clinton. they seem to be showing some effect here from that. again, that is a big change from 12 points more than a week ago. what is driving that? if you look in this polling, you say how does donald trump go from behind to ahead by a point? what's going on here? what they're pointing to in this poll is the question of enthusiasm. they asked trump voters,voters,y enthuse astzic about actually going out there and voting for your candidate on election day. that's a huge question. who is actually going to turn out to vote, and what they're finding, what they say they're finding is there is now more enthusiasm for donald trump than there is for hillary clinton. >> steve, can i ask a dumb
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question? jus because you're extra excited doesn't mean you have an extra vote. what does enthusiasm matter? >> not everybody votes. if you take 100% of the adult population who are theoretically eligible to vote, the question is how many of them are even registered to vote. you can lop off tens of millions of people there. then you take the pool of registered people who are eligible to participate if they want, you're talking about sgat58% maybe who show up to vote. it's crucial, that question of who makes up that 58%, 60%, whatever it comes to. what the "washington post" poll here is showing, they're saying, hey, the enthusiasm is on donald trump's side. again, that's one poll. we're in a pick your poll environment. you can also look at this, our new nbc news/survey monkey poll, hillary clinton, 47%, donald trump, 41%. if you look at the trajectory, the trend, no noticeable effect from the comey announcement. she was up about six before, she's up six after. we also have a new reuters poll.
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this also a six-point lead for clinton. three polls, a lot of sort of confusing information in both directions. one of the safest things you can do in a situation like this, average them all together. if you do that, it points to a lead of about four points right now for hillary clinton. but obviously, it is a volatile moment in this race. we're a week out. ee have a lot of stuff swirling around in the air, in that "washington post" poll does suggest volatility out there right now. >> all right, thanks so much, steve. i want to bring in peter alexander live in king of prussia, pennsylvania, where donald trump will be speaking later today. peter, like it or not, the fbi investigation still seems to be the hot topic on the campaign trail. not jobs, not immigration, not the economy, not education, not health care. it's the fbi. >> yeah, no, i think that's exactly right. for donald trump's closing argument today here in king of prussia, he's going to alongside his running mate, mike pence. basically his only surrogate.
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they'll be side by side, not so much focusing on e-mail but another thing central to their argument in the final days. that is the obamacare premium hikes. they think that is a story line that resonates. that's what they'll be focusing on in just a few hours from now. already this morning, trump is again tweeting about hillary clinton on the topic of those e-mails. calling her out for what he describes as bad judgment. hillary clinton says there is no case here. she remains defiant. here's a little bit of the back and forth from the trail. >> i made a mistake. i'm not making any excuses. but i will tell you this. if they want to look at some more e-mails of one of my staffers, by all means, go ahead. >> if hillary is elected, she would be under protracted criminal investigation, likely followed by the trial of a sitting president. this is just -- hey, this is just what we need. just what we need. >> i'm rubber, you're glue.
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now there's reports the fbi is looking into donald trump's former campaign manager paul manafort's ties to russia. they have known this for quite some time. now we're seven days out? >> yeah, so in terms of strat y strategy, donald trump trying to go on offense. hillary clinton now using this line to go on offense against him right now. nbc news has learned via law enforcement and u.s. intelligence sources that the fbi has opened up -- is in the middle of what's described as a preliminary inquiry, not a full-blown criminal investigation, but a preliminary inquiry into paul manafort, donald trump's former campaign manager's foreign business connections, specifically about potential ties to russia. nbc news reported a matter of months ago that manafort was viewed as a key player in a multimillion dollar series of business propositions with russian and ukrainian oligarchs, including one man, an ally of vladimir putin who is said to have ties to organized crime. stephanie. >> all right, thanks, peter. i want to go back to that e-mail investigation now, and lawmakers who are demanding the fbi probe
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really provide more details about what they know at this point. the response from the justice department that they, quote, appreciate their concerns and will move as, quote, expeditiously as possible. well, that didn't sit well with democratic leaders who called the response disappointing and inadequate. i want to bring in justice correspondent pete williams. what's the latest? >> let me translate that letter for you. what the justice department is saying we didn't like the fbi sending this letter to you in the first place. now that it's out there, we're all for trying to get this resolved as quickly as possible. the fbi is going through all these e-mails. we don't have a good progress report yet on what they found, but there was some optimism they could get an answer quickly. now, that is a little bit tempered. but we should know more a little later today, stephanie. >> peter, there's also reports saying that the fbi director, james comey, wanted to withhold revelations about russian ties to that clinton e-mail hacking because it potentially would affect the outcome of the
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election. but many are saying this is a double standard, sir. what can you tell us about that? >> that's what some former officials have said. but fbi officials say that they're mistaken. it's true that the fbi director thought that it was too soon to atrinity these attacks to russia. but his concern was based on investigating issues. possibly compromising investigating methods. he never mentioned effect on the u.s. election. >> thanks so much, pete. >> there's one more story that dropped overnight. the "new york times" saying donald trump avoided paying potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes in a way that even his own lawyers considered questionable. drawing on documents reviewed for the paper by tax experts, the report says trump, who is facing financial collapse back in the '90s, used, quote, a mathematical sleight of hand, trickery, a strategy that his lawyers said the irs would have most likely declared improper if
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audited. he posted a one year loss of more than $900 million back in 1995, which may have allowed him to avoid paying federal income tax for a total of 18 years. the trump campaign says these tax expert misread the law. i want to bring in megan murphy from bloomberg news. let's start with donald trump and his taxes. this tax issue has been going on and on, surrogates have said they're going to comecome. we'll see those taxes. his lawyers said we shouldn't release them. how big of a deal is it, a, that we didn't see them, and b, do his supporters care. >> it's fascinating we're more than a week away and we're not going to see the taxes. his refusal to release them, particularly in light of the bombshell earlier that he may have been able to avoid paying taxes for 18 years by writing off these losses.
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but now the campaign has taken so many twists and turns, this morning, we're dealing with at least three different russian conspiracy theories about his campaign and the tax issue seems lost in the weeds. this is quite detailed about a particular tablth f tactic he might have taken to reduce it, but it doesn't seem like something that's really driving voters right now. >> did the clinton campaign get too cute in the last month, when they looked at polls and it looks like they were so far in the lead. president obama was campaigning for state legislators. should they have been driving the tax issue? it got lost in the weeds, and this should have been front and center day in and day out, calling for it. frankly, we haven't heard much about it until today. >> i couldn't agree more. polling showed something that annoyed voters. they said he should release the taxes. whether or not it's cuteness or complacen complacency, i'm not sure. as recently as the third debate, this race looks over. she was on message, disciplined. this october surprise from james
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comey was a big one. it has certainly scrambled the race. we'll be picking it apart from this week to months and years later when we dissect what really happened. in terms of her weaknesses, this perception of e-mail that her staffers might have been hiding something, that she might have been hiding something and the server, it fit so squarely and neatly into the republican narrative, and that's why i think you see this dump of oppo, this almost not panics response, but hyperaggressive response from her campaign. thas know this could hit her where it hurts. >> has it changed the race? these polls are very confusing. mike pence has been calling for republicans to come back home. to come home. those republicans, are those undecideds who had said donald trump is too much for us, is the most recent news from hillary clinton too much for those undecideds or those moderate republicans reminded of who hillary clinton was to them for all these years? >> his base was enthusiastic, he had 90% of people and she said
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90% of people saying they were enthusiastic to vote for them. i think in this final, as people have been calling it the closing argument, he's going to make a closing argument today about obamacare. that this is something that does resonate. whether there are enough undecideds particularly in key battleground states, that's a whole different question. we heard she's restarting ads in colorado, a state they locked up. pennsylvania, the polling is all over the place. there's no question the race was tightening. whether it's tightening further specifically due to this issue or whether it's becoming a more traditional election, who can turn out the voters who are excited in them, who believe in their message and want the change candidate. >> how tight do you think this race is? i trust you ahead of all these polls? >> i think it's going to be a long night. that's what i'll say. i think it's going to be more traditional than people thought as the returns come in. but look, who knows what to believe. every night, we're up until 1:00 in the morning sifting through
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different story on the trail. we'll see if we have one last november surprise. we'll soon find out. megan, thank you so much. i have to share breaking news out of baltimore, very bad news. a deadly collision between a school bus and a passenger bus this morning has left at least six people dead and several others seriously injured. crews had to rescue several people trapped inside the mangled buses, including the school bus driver. police say there were no children inside that school bus. we'll have more for you on that as the hour continues. that is a tragic, tragic scene that we're seeing out of baltimore, maryland, this morning. we'll take a quick break. coming up, back to politics. the growing battle between the fbi and senate democrats. fbi says they'll get back to them later. one of the senators leading the charge will be joining us next. by the hollies ♪ oh the fishes will laugh as they swim out of the path ♪ ♪ and the seagulls they'll be smilin' ♪
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i have to give the fbi credit. that was so bad what happened originally. and it took guts for director comey to make the move that he made in light of the kind of opposition he had. >> while donald trump is praising the fbi director, senate democrats are slamming him, demanding answers in the clinton e-mail investigation. justice department officials say they're going as fast as they can, but they're not making any promises. joining me now is one of those democrats leading the charge, maryland senator ben cardin, ranking member on the foreign relations committee. good morning, senator. >> stephanie, good to be with you. >> thanks so much. after you complained to the justice department, a letter was sent back saying that they would, quote, take appropriate steps as expeditiously as possible. is that good enough for you? >> no, not at all.
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what we know now of course is that they discovered some information. we don't know the relevancy of that information in a separate investigation. we don't know what impact it has at all, and based upon that, director comey sent a public letter so close to an election, breaking the protocol of the department of justice when you're very close to an election. because they did that, and because donald trump has drawn certain conclusions even though there's no substantiations into conclusions he has drawn, it's incumbent upon the director to release more information. >> you have said you want director comey to make all of the information available before election day. what would that look like? should comey come back and talk about it? should there be a massive data dump here? >> well, we don't know what the information is, but we know that it was preliminary. there was no indication that there was any additional concerns concerning secretary clinton.
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there was just additional information. i think he needs to make that public because it's being used by donald trump to try to convince independent voters to vote for him or if they're clinton supporters, to stay home. based upon conclusions that donald trump has drawn, that there's no evidence to show that those -- that that's correct. it's now incumbent upon the director to release information so the public can make its own judgment. >> what is incumbent upon him mean? besides you sending letters ppleaing for him to do this, can you actually take action? >> no, i think we're too close to an election for anything effective to be done in regards to congress. we're not even in session. what we want -- what we expect is that you're going to see that there's nothing new in these e-mails. secretary clinton has said that pretty directly, that there's no reason for additional investigations to take place in regards to secretary clinton. i think the public has a right to know that now that the director has sent this letter to
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congress. the letter was pretty inconclusive. there was a discovery of information. there was no determination of any relevancy here. and yet, the campaign of donald trump used it as a way of saying it confirmed their suspicions when it did not. i think it's very important, and many members think it's important that there be additional disclosures. >> as a ranking member on the foreign relations committee, can you tell us anything about the reports that director comey argued against the u.s. publicly accusing russia of meddling in the election around those clinton campaign e-mail hacks. because it was too close to election day. can you confirm those reports? >> what i do know is that russia was involved in the hacking in regards to the democratic affiliation groups that they used that information to leak it to wikileaks, that was made public. we do know that they were
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engaged in a procedure to try to discredit the u.s. elections. that much we do know. and i expect that the fbi is doing some investigations in regards to that. we do not know about how they drove conclusions in regards to what they would make public and what they would not make public. >> if we find out that director comey did make that decision not to go public because it was too close to the election, would you consider that a double standard? >> well, i don't think he should make any information available close to an election unless he has conclusive information that the public has a need to know. so i think he made a judgment mistake by releasing the information in regards to the new information on the e-mails in regards to independent investigation. so i'm not suggesting that he needs to make more public information available in preliminary investigations this close to an election. but what i am saying is he made a mistake in regards to the e-mails that had been used
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against secretary clinton, and that information needs to be made public. >> do you consider it anything more than a mistake? you know him well. you have worked with him for years. >> i think it was a mistake in judgment. let me just underscore, we are very concerned about what's happening with russia. we're very concerned that the trump campaign facilitated the release of that information. a foreign government's involvement in our campaign is unprecedented and is outrageous and needs to be responded to. that is very much a major concern to many of us. we also would like to know donald trump's connections to foreign governments. his tax returns would show that. as you know, he's refused to disclose his tax returns. that's a major concern. there's concerns out there that the voters had a right to get more information. donald trump should have released his tax returns. >> senator, thank you for joining me and sharing your thoughts this morning. >> thank you. coming up, hillary clinton and democrats have blasted director comey, claiming a double standard after reports
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surfaced that comey did not want to name russia as a source of those wicky leak hacks because of the election. the reporter who broke the story will join me next. ♪ ♪ style lets you stand out from the herd. what's inside sets you apart. the 2016 cadillac escalade. [aand i've never seen a rocketge ship take off like this. [owner] i'm lindsey. i'm the founder of ezpz. my accountant... ...he's almost like my dad in this weird way. yeah, i'm proud of you. you actually did some of the things i asked you to do the other day (laughs). [owner] ha, ha, ha. [accountant] i've been able to say, okay... ...here's the challenges you're going to have. and we can get it confirmed through our quickbooks.
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welcome back. it's time now for your morning primer. everything you need to know to get your day started. we're exactly one week, seven days from election day. hillary clinton is sprinting through the must-win state of florida with several early voting events taking place. while donald trump is in the democratic leaning state of pennsylvania and then wisconsin. meanwhile, john kasich is snubbing donald trump in his absentee ballot. rather than voting for his party's nominee, he opted to write in senator john mccain. >> with 4700 mass transit workers in philadelphia went on strike today, leaving a total of 900,000 commuters scrambling this morning to find alternative means of travel. it's also raised fears that a
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potentially prolonged shutdown could keep voters from the polls on november 8th. >> in baltimore, a tragic, gruesome morning. a crash between a school bus and a transit bus has left at least six people dead and several seriously injured. according to police, there were no students on that school bus. >> and tonight, game six of the world series. the cleveland indians are looking to win their first world series since 1948, while the chicago cubs are trying to force a game seven tomorrow. good luck, gentlemen, across the board. >> and we're going togo back to politics where the stakes couldn't be higher. the clinton campaign jumping on a new report that says fbi director james comey did not want to name the russians as interfering with the u.s. election because it was too close to election day. a former bureau official tells cnbc, quote, some government insiders are perplexed as to why comey would election timing
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concerns with the russian disclosure but not the huma abedin disclosure he made friday. i'm joined now, tell me exactly what did this former bureau official tell you about comey's decision not to go public with the russia disclosure? >> the former fbi official wa walked me through timing here, stephanie, on this, saying there was an internal debate inside the obama administration that sort of dragged on for a while about whether or not to name the russians as being behind these hack attacks against u.s. political entities. ultimately, comey said that he did not want to name the russians because he was concerned that the debate had gono so long that it was now getting too close to the u.s. election, among other concerns. that's according to this former fbi official and the official told me that some other insiders were perplexed that comey would have made that decision on that issue but then on the hillary clinton e-mail issue, he would have decided something quite different on friday in terms of
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election timing concerns. i should say this official also told me that he doesn't think this was a partisan effort on comey's part. this official's take was this was simply a personal involvement by comey in the clinton e-mail story. now that he's had the press conference and gone very public with his take on this investigation, this official said that comey is very personally involved in that story, and that's why he felt he had to come forward on friday. >> in terms of this double standard that the clinton campaign is claiming, let's perplex us a little more. nbc has other sources that are saying the decision had nothing to do with the election. it had to do with the fact that the fbi didn't want to tip off the russians. what do you make of these disagreements within the bureau? >> clearly, there are different takes and perhaps different takes on the same conversation inside the building. i can tell you that nbc news has done its own vgz into this exact issue. they're citing this morning a former senior law enforcement
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official with detailed knowledge of the matter who said that comey was in fact concerned about election timing. but they're also citing a senior fbi official who said comey was opposed to releasing the information, but he had other concerns. investigative concerns and not election timing concerns. so there you have it. you have a number of different sources here, all saying versions of the same thing and slightly different things. the "washington post" has a story out this morning in when they're citing their own sources backing up a similar account to the former fbi official saying that comey was in fact concerned about election timing. >> thanks for joining me this morning. >> hillary clinton's campaign have jumped on this specific report saying the fbi director had, quote, blat nant double standard. kasie hunt is live in dade city, florida. they're really trying to make this into something. are they going to stay on this today? when hillary clinton sets the tempo, when she's on the offensive, that's when she wins. not so much when she's on the defensive, which is where she is
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now. >> i think they are going to try to continue to focus on this through the course of the day, steph. i think that one impact that this fbi news has had on the clinton campaign is a shift away from the way they wanted to close out this campaign, which was in a positive way. you had seen her campaign release a positive ad. she was out on the stump trying to be upbeat and essentially selling hillary clinton's vision for the country. you have seen in the last couple days a shift to the campaigning they had done for the previous months, which is attacking donald trump. you have seen that kind of one issue at a time. yesterday, it was the nuclear codes. today, it's going to be women. the clinton campaign is out with a very tough new ad. it's a minute-long ad highlighting things donald trump had had to say about women over the course of his life. and she's going to be onstage here today in dade city with alicia machado, the former miss
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universe that trump now somewhat famously called miss piggy. that's what they're going to try to change the subject to. you can probably expect that some of this news about russia and donald trump could make its way into one of her stump speeches today. she has three events across the state of florida. here, the orlando area, and broward county, which is in near ft. lauderdale. and president bill clinton also here in the state, as there are some democratic strategists familiar with the early vote totals and trends in florida who are getting a little more nervous about what those numbers look like here as early voting progresses. there's still one week left, but right now, registered republicans have a slight edge in that early voting total. steph. >> all right, thanks so much, kasie. >> coming up, battleground arizona. once solidly red, it has become a toss-up with both campaigns barnstorming the state a week before the election. we're going to head to arizona, home of one of my favorite
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places on earth, the grand canyon. [ keyboard typing ]
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with just one week to go before election day, the race is super tight in arizona. the real clear politics average of polls has hillary clinton with 43% of the vote, donald trump with 42%. as part of our battleground america series, nbc's chris jansing joins us now from phoenix. chris, hillary clinton is the first democratic nominee in 20 years to have a chance of winning the state. what's her campaign doing this week? >> reporter: the answer, stephanie, is everything they possibly can. she's coming here. kate is coming here. he's going to give a speech in spanish. we have seen the first lady here. we have seen chelsea clinton, bill clinton. the heart of this campaign are folks like this. that's big breakfast just opened. a little bit of a crowd already. maricopa county. this is key because this is where the population center is.
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and they have already added a dozen staff in recent weeks. they have 33 offices opened. 180 staff members. ernie owns this fine establishment. are people talking about the election here? what are they saying? inabsolutely. for the most part, they're ready for it to be over, be done with it. >> but they're all talking about it. >> they're all talking about it. it's exciting because arizona is a swing state, this election is unlike anything we have seen. yeah, it's exciting, but we're ready. it's going to be over. >> i think a lot of people feel that, and that's why early voting has been so important here. stephanie, obviously, g.o.t.v., get the folks to the polls before they're done with the election. >> chris jansing joining us from phoenix, arizona. coming up, democrats and hillary clinton are blasting james comey months after praising him. is he violating the hatch act or simply doing his job? a former assistant director
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hillary clinton's campaign is crying foul over reports the fbi director opposed releasing information of russian interference close to election day, yet they announced another probe of her e-mails last week. joining me now is former fbi assistant director, also the president of the law enforcement legal defense fund. ron, do you believe director comey showed a double standard in publicizing the persutd of hillary clinton's e-mails again but not the russian ties? >> i think we have two very different sets of facts. very different concerns. on one side, publicizing what the fbi recently found and deciding to move forward. on the other side, there are always concerns on the cyber side about what we disclose, how we disclose it,
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and so the sets of facts are so distinct and different, i don't think a comparison should be made. >> some critics are saying that, well, director james comey had a lot more at stake personally tied to hillary clinton and her e-mails. we know he already testified. we know he chose not to indict here. could one draw the conclusion that, listen, he really wants to tie that one up, and as far as the russians and the hacking, well, he can steer clear of it. it doesn't affect him. >> you know, the director certainly has something invested in the former. because of the actions and the judgments of the attorney general, jim comey stepped into the breach to make the statements that he did back in july. and engage in this path of unusual transparency with congress. and i think he was committed to keeping congress informed of a dramatic change of events. in a previously closed case. he had a commitment to tell them that we were done and now
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something dramatic happened that told him we weren't done. the investigation was not complete. we had to start again. once again, and secondly, i think we're actually talking about the wrong thing. in a perfect world, the timing of this would be irrelevant because it would have been resolved five or six years ago on bob muller's watch. jim comey wouldn't be a factor. the fbi would have known about this activity by clinton, by huma abedin and their closest advisers, and the case would have been resolved one way or another. >> unfortunately, hindsight is 20/20, so here we are. on friday, the letter that james comey put out had explosive results. huma abedin's lawyer today said the fbi still hasn't reached out to her. how does that make sense? >> there's a process here. the fbi first wants to find out what they have in their possession. there have been reports since friday that it's thousands of e-mails, tens of thousands.
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you know, i have heard 650,000. i don't know what's true. the fbi presumably is trying to figure out what's true. determine first from what they possess lawfully and what they have the right to examine, which purportedly occurred over the weekend, they want to know what they have before they reach out and start to think in terms of an interview. i think they're just informing themselves. >> real quick, if there's a process, if there's 650,000 e-mails, they're not sure what they have, do you have any confidence we're going to get any more information, which is what hillary clinton's campaign is asking for, before the election seven days away? >> no, i don't. you know, in fact, the irony there is huma abedin should be in the best position to know what they have and she should take to the stage and answer the questions. the fbi has a process they have to go through. that is filtering what they already had from other sources against this and try to determine what's new. go the next step, find out what among that might be classified. and that involving inner agency
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partners. there's going to be a process involved. i know there's a pressure. i don't know that we'll hear anything more before the election. >> this is one hairy beast. ron, thank you for joining me. coming up, paul ryan just announced who he voted for, but why won't be he actually say the name? was just a bottle.
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i have said it before. this show needs a commercial cam. one week until election day, and house speaker paul ryan says he's already voted in his home state of wisconsin. take a listen. >> i already voted here in janesville for our nominee last week in early voting. we need to support our entire republican ticket. >> okay. joining me now, msnbc contributor daily news columnist mike lupica, and nbc contributor and "new york times" political reporter nick confessore. i'm going to start with nick and then i'm going to turn to you michael. paul ryan tells us he voted and in like harry potter voldemort
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style, won't say donald trump's name. what gives here? >> he doesn't want tape anywhere of him saying i voted for donald trump. it's the balancing act they're all trying to do of saying they support the nominee, this random vague person who they can't nam say his name. i think just avoidance but i think he wants trump to be the president because he would be in the driver's seat on policy which is important to him. >> for the highest role in the land, paul ryan doesn't want to say who he's voting for because he doesn't want there to be tape. what do you think of that as an american? >> it's like when someone gets caught in the barrel and gets publicly shamed in this country. >> luckily, that doesn't happen. >> like ryan lochte, with the confession confessional, he never says, i lied because he doesn't want that piece of tape to be out there forever. the one who cannot be mentioned.
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>> like voldemort. >> i'm tired of hearing about people in a tough spot. it's looking like a phony. >> people who are in a tough spot are the people in the united states who can't get jobs, live in places without good schools or can't get affordable health care. so to say paul ryan is a in a you have spot. >> i get tired of hearing james comey was in a tough spot. boohoo. this comes with the territory. this comes with the job. when i hear, there was no good choice to make, yes, there was a good choice which was to shut up and do the right thing. >> nick. shut up and do the right thing? some people say, james comey wants it both ways. he's going to release, they're doing more of hillary clinton's e-mails but not mention the russian hackers. what is james doing here? >> it's not clear. i counted three or four stories from different organizations
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saying different things, contradictory things. what you have to imagine happening is that teams are trying to defend their actions and their investigations. the clinton foundations and e-mails but it's not supposed to work this way. the fbi is supposed to investigate and the department of justice is deciding who gets a prosecutor and who doesn't. you don't comment on these things and dangerous territory to break that rule. >> you know what else? the polls. can you help me understand? on one hand, you say, hillary clinton is up by 6. but got a strong lead and abc with a tracking poll saying donald trump is up by 1. what do you believe? >> it's a good thing we don't cover teams in sports the way this race has been covered by the punditry because it's like watching day traders getting hysterical every time it moves. i believe it's a 4 or 5 point. >> follow the averages.
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follow the averages. >> what does that mean? wi >> don't look at individual polls. the averages are the best way to go. >> what does it tell you? >> very close and she's ahead. >> i think with everything that happened last friday, nick, it's like if you're in the rain and it rains a little harder. at that point, you're wet. you don't care anymore. i think people are tuning out most of this e-mail stuff. i think she's going to win and get 300 or more electoral votes unless the fbi calls in another press conference on friday. >> the opposition dump, "the new york times" piece about donald trump and his taxes. maybe looking into paul manafort and his ties to russia. clearly this, one could argue this is coming from the clinton campaign. why weren't tai prehey pressing
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points harder? this donald trump tax issue isn't being reported. >> they're complicated. tax policy is complicated. so that was a lot of work and flowed naturally out of the scoop on his tax returns from '95. look, i'm not sure why the focus has been off the taxes except with donald trump, so many other things to focus on whether it's women or his taxes. today, i think you'll see a pivot back to policy on women, on taxes, conventional points of vulnerability for donald trump and they want to change the subject away from the thing with the fbi. >> before we go, nick is right to say this was the clintons behind the "new york times" report. >> i don't think there was a reasonable expectation this guy was going to release his tax returns. you could hold your breath and
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hop on one leg. it's not going to happen. tha thankfully, "the times" has done this kind of reporting and put a light back on. i think it's a way bigger issue than e-mails. >> you're absolutely right. i was wrong there. nick, michael, great to see you. >> i want that piece of tape forever. >> you know what? all day long, every day. it's every day. you're in luck. lot of that tape. we'll take a break. chblgt coming coming up, trump supporter defending hillary clinton over the letter. congressman joe walsh will be here and first, no one does halloween quite like the white house. the first couple got flash mobbed so you know is my dream to be flash mobbed with the unofficial theme song of the holiday "little thriller." they showed off dance moves. it is my dream.
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you can see me on @sruhle. your head shot is come hither. thank you. we'll see you tomorrow. >> here's my friend craig. how about the head shot? >> what a week to go. presidential race. anyone's guess. new poll positions. survey monkey online tracking poll conducted both before and after the fbi news shows hillary clinton up 6. that's virtually unchanged from last week before that e-mail bombshell. but donald trump now holding the slimmest of leads in this
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morning's abc news "washington post" poll. it's the first time the republican has led in this survey since he clinched the party's nomination back in may. it's also a 13 point swing in just a week. our senior political editor mark murray helping us understanding what's going on there and also, donald trump taking to twitter this morning to praise that poll showing him ahead. not all good news for him though. the fbi looking into his former campaign manager's relationship with russia. a report in "the new york times" that trump used, quote, legally dubious methods. trump on the trail in pennsylvania and wisconsin, two states where he's down in the polls and president obama and vice president joe biden campaign for hillary clinton in ohio and north carolina respectively. the nominee herself spending her day crisscrossing florida and calling on the fbi to work

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