tv All In With Chris Hayes MSNBC November 5, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm PDT
good evening from new york. donald trump about to take the stage in indiana. i can't believe it, but we are just now three days from election day. and there have been already more than 40,000 votes already cast. national polls show clinton with a three-point lead in this final weekend. of course it all comes down to the electoral college. if you count the states where
clinton has the leads, she has 268 electoral votes. clinton is closing her campaign, act companied by big names, beyonce, and jay-z, also boosted by her big name surrogates. trump has been much more on his own. and trump's close ally, chris christie, canceling plan events in new hampshire after two of his aides were convicted by a jury in the bridge-gate scandal. i think you guys feel pretty confident. minnesota, places that, i think you wouldn't expect. do you guys have internal data suggesting that those two states have more republican data showing? >> in neighborhoods across the country, regardless of whether it's a blue state, have been
affected by the trade deals clinton's been involved in. in addition to his anti war message, to his anti-illegal immigration message, all of that resonates even in blue states. you know hillary clinton is a warmonger. i don't think you can deny this. >> i think that's a strong point, but he literally, that's a quote of his, we're going to bomb the s out of them. >> we don't agree that we need to set a no fly zone over syria that will lead to military conflict with russia. she's a warmonger, who everybody agrees who's honest. >> clearly not everybody agrees on it.
you just characterized clinton as a warmonger, but bomb the s out of them is not a warmonger. >> i do have severe concerns, as do many bernie sanders supporters. >> i think there's also other problems with giving a lot of other people -- >> melania trump was paid to do work, without a work visa, that's a violation of immigration law. >> no. >> i continue dare. why should she not be punished by that but millions of others should be. >> assuming that report is correct, which its not.
>> the documents of her getting paid while she's not on a work visa, which is a violation of immigration law, let's be clear, millions of people do every year. >> let's be clear, the only issue we're going to talk about melania trump is these two phenomenal speechlees that she have delivered. she did not break the law. do you think to talk about breaking the law, do you want to talk about the bribes, and the money she accepted. let's talk about the iranian deal, let's talk about the kn nigerian arms deal. >> you're representing a candidate who has said that he would go door to door in this
country and kick million of people out. a deportation force. >> a deportation force already exists, it's called i.c.e. so obama is going door to door? >> people who have broken the law in a similar way to melania trump. >> this is ridiculous, you're claiming melania donald trump worked illegally. >> this is a candidate who for 15 months has said that immigrants who are coming here illegally are breaking the law and have to pay the consequences. >> and hillary clinton has said for months she didn't lie to the fbi, she didn't delete 33,000 e-mails. is she criminal or is she still stupid?
which is it? she's either corrupt or incredibly inept. which is worse? >> you honestly think it doesn't matter whether melania donald trump broke the immigration law? >> would it matter or not. >> the clinton foundation being under federal investigation. >> i would not vote for that corrupt criminal if my life depeppeded on it. >> my question to you is would it matter if she broke the immigration law. >> would it matter to you if hillary clinton accepted bribes. >> would it matter if melania broke the immigration laws. >> would it matter to you if clinton accepted bribes? >> it's my show, i ask the questions. what do you think, eric?
>> i think it matters. >> i don't think it matters. my point is that it doesn't matter, i honestly think those kinds of gray area infraction that happen all time are along a spectrum of infraction. >> yeah, a lot of people have done that for all sorts of reasons and a lot of people that have done that have made america great. >> hypocrisy matters. you got to get rid of that. >> where are you right now on the state of the race in the last week? when you look at what has happened in the post, sort of, comey era. this idea which is interesting, their closing argument, which we didn't even get to, is the sort of idea got change, sort of knocking off the globalist elite. >> take my mike off. >> i'm sorry, i'm still getting
mike. where do you see the campaign post comey? >> it's very similar to post pneumonia. when hillary clinton had the pneumonia bout, it was a major interruption. after people like my barber told me that the fbi had reopened the investigation, when that false information got out, i think it interrupted the race, i think we're back to where the race was now, i think clearly she has the momentum, the early voting states in nevada and florida. 40 million votes have already been cast and she's ahead in those. so i think the race is almost where it was precomey shocker. >> it almost seems to me that part of the strategy right now in talking about -- it's very interesting to hear, there's clearly a few strategies here, one as you can tell from a.j., target disaffected bernie
supporters, the trade message, there's a geographical push for that reason . but there's also it seems to me, some sort of notion of, look, we're going to make it terrible if you like. >> i honestly think it's a very, and not necessarily a stupid tactic. basically they have said, trump themselves have said there will be a constitutional crisis. and basically the argument is s we're going to make it a brutal slog. >> pre-comey, we saw reports that they were going to try to suppress the vote, they were going to try and suppress the african-american vote, they were going to try and suppress the bernie sanders vote. we have fox news, manufacturing these stories that she's going to be indicted, that brett baer had to walk back. if they think they can volley 40 million, 50 million democrats.
to say they're going take it, we don't want the presidency, we don't want the congress, they're going to make it awful. i can't imagine that as a strategy. i don't think anyone has ever volleyed the presidency away from another party. scared them away from voting. >> look at those lines today, people are waiting two, three, four hours, they don't seem to be afraid that we're going to head into a morass. >> it's interesting to me when you think about clinton during impeachment, bill clinton was quite popular, and i think hillary clinton -- her finest moment probably in this whole campaign was her benghazi testimony. maybe, that's actually in some perverse political way, this is actually good. >> look at barack obama, he's at his highest approval rating since 2009, 2010. he said they spent eight years doing what they wanted to do. we have a lot more, i'm
going to be here for two hours, settle in, grab a cocktail, do what you're doing, it's saturday night. the early voting numbers that don't bode well for donald trump, could republicans lose control of the senate, or will they retain it. and hillary clinton's last push to get out the vote, but does it achieve a photo-op? sometimes progressive isn't the lowest. not always the lowest! jamie. what are you doing? -i'm being your hype man. not right now. you said i was gonna be the hype man. no, we said we wouldn't do it. i'm sorry, we were talking about savings. i liked his way. cha-ching! talking about getting that moneeeey! talking about getting that moneeeey! savings worth the hype. now that's progressive.
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crime, they're rapists. we're building a wall between here and mexico. they're giving us some very brad rulings. they have some bad people here and we're going to get them out. who's going to pay for the wall? >> audience: mexico! >> who's going to pay for the wall? >> audience: mexico! >> latinos, particularly mexican americans were the first and perhaps the most consistent of his targets. latinos have typically vote less than other democratic votes. 48% of latinos turn out to vote, compared to 64% of white voters. there are signs that may be changing, in a number of -- as of november 1, latinos made up
13.77%, of early voting in florida, a critical state for trump. it's possible those votes draw from the same pool of people that usually vote on election day. the possibility is they're just voting early instead of adding to the elect terror at the. of course steve schale, on thursday alone, 82.5% of early voters are considered low propensity voters, those are people who may not have voted in the last political elections, who may have been excluded from florida voting. this man has done polling, senior political analyst for 538, matt, let me start with you. two states where we have got a lot of early voting.
nevada and florida. it seems like we're seeing similar trends in both those states when you compare what the numbers say in early votes, versus let's say a model or polling would predict about the composition of the electorate. spell it out for us. >> we're seeing far greater early vote numbers than most of the main stream models are predicting. latinos in particular in florida, but nevada are overperforming what the polls are reporting. but there's also dan smith at the university of florida, 30% of the latinos who voted in florida are either preregistrants or they have never voted before. they're voting at very high rates, higher than we saw in 2012. and i don't think the models are not taking account of that, they're not seeing the swell we're seeing on the ground, in both of those two very
competitive latino battleground states. >> with early voting, there's lots of data and there's lots of ways you can screw the data up. we know some party affiliation, we know some grass roots movements, but what we don't know is the propensity of those voters, you want those low propensity voters to vote early. >> a vote on election day is worth the same amount as a vote that's cast early. it seems like a lot of these low propensity voters are voting for clinton. if latinos or voting as opposed to african-americans, that's not a good thing for hillary.
>> and steve scale in florida had raised some alarm bells that looks like the percentage of electorate that's black have come up a bit in early voting. you've got john ralston camped out last night, he's live tweeting the last day of early voting. he's had one location, which is a mexican grocery store. that's the scene right there. and he's tweeting. these people are going to, you know, if you're in line, it's going to stay open, they're going to bank another 6,000 votes, they're sort of in real time, watching this happen. the final polling average in nevada was obama 2.8. but that was bad latino polling. do you think it's the case that bad polling is not capturing latinos effectively.
>> all the public posts for harry reid were toast. if you look at nevada, what makes it different than the other states, is that we have a trend line going back through history, we know the partisan affiliation of those voters, we know that partisan affiliation holds through election day. if that holds to election day, it's very difficult for donald trump to win in that state. >> what is your sense from this. there's the early voting data, the polling, then there's the arizona, if you look at arizona and georgia, georgia looks like the polls are good. and nobody's going to georgia. and a lot of people are going to arizona. and i know for a fact, the clinton campaign has a target list. in georgia, what do you think is the story there? >> you have to brush up on your spanish in cycle.
in arizona, don't forget about sheriff joe. that's bringing out a lot of latinos, you wouldn't believe the number of people who are going door to door, not just in the presidential election, but a local county sheriff election, that down ticket race may actually have more coat tails, they actually bring out more votes to vote against arpaio. there continues to be ad buys and on the ground. and i think you're going to see a really, really large latino vote in arizona. >> people talk about black turnout, and people fail to appreciate that african-americans turn out more than anyone. jewish voters -- african-americans turn out at very high rates, particularly in the south, particularly for education and income, they turn
out at very high rates. this issue for democrats about latino votes from a tackle kl perspective is, a lot of states aren't that competitive, so they don't give you the same bang for the buck. and they're not turning out at the same rates. but if you're got latinos voting at what african-americans do, that would be a massive change structural for the democratic party. >> democrats are expected to do better there because latinos are finally motivated to vote in that state. arizona is a key example of that. joe arpaio is favored to lose the election. that's the favorite example where you might seen uptick in tu turnout. the republican senator who faces praise from none other than president obama. but first, my kids are here tonight, brian and david, and if you're a regular viewer of the
show, it's time to play the animal videos they like. first up, the butterflies. i'll be relaxing as we're coming in to the stretch here. tigers, this is at the bronx zoo, not very far from here, both cute, both of them. we'll be right back. it's terrible. i don't wanna try it if it's terrible. it's like mango chutney and burnt hair. no thank you, i have a very sensitive palate. just try it! guys, i think we should hurry up. if you taste something bad, you want someone else to try it. it's what you do. i can't get the taste out of my mouth! if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. it's what you do. shhh! dog, dog, dog. but my back pain was making it hard to sleep and open up on time. then i found aleve pm. the only one to combine a sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve. now i'm back. aleve pm for a better am.
when your kids and grand kids ask you what you did in 2016, when it was all on the line, i want you to be able to say i voted for a better, fairer, stronger america where everybody has a chance at the american dream. i am so excited about this election, because i really think we're going to send a message from coast to coast, east to west, north to south, about who we are as a country. and if we do what we should, then on november the 9th, this coming wednesday, we can all wake up and say, i'm going to do
my part to make sure that america lives up to its promise to every one of our people, especially every one of our children, who deserves a chance to live up to their god given potential. so tonight, tonight it is a celebration for everything that you have already done to help us and all that we will do together, and i am thrilled to be able to introduce a performer whose music as a wonderful message. >> hillary clinton tonight in philadelphia, and in that state, this ad right now is currently running. take a look. >> in washington, the rarest political quality is courage. on keeping guns away from criminals, listen to what president obama says about pat
toomey. >> we had a democrat and a republican come together and work together to write a common sense compromise on background checks. and i want to thank joe manchin and pat toomey for the courage to do that. that was not easy. >> yes, that's actually a republican ad spot, senator pat toomey who -- toomey has refused to say, will not answer, whether or not he will vote for donald trump. but his use of the presidential praise in that ad was not lost on the republicans today. >> that republican senator starts running ads with barack obama with him? oh, go figure, is what a brother would say. isn't that amazing, bobby?
he knows he wants to vote for barack obama. how thing change. you want to ask yourself, why not get the real deal? >> the next biggest focus tuesday night will be several close senate races, like pennsylvania, which will determine who controls the senate. 52% and 54% respectively. here's what i think has been interesting, there's been a bunch of different races, and all the polls that i have been following. they really haven't monthed in tandem in the way you would in the era of partisan polarization we have. when you would expect donald trump cresting, they do well. but they're really moving in a
different direction. >> and pennsylvania is a -- i think there's been one poll in the past two weeks, and there's been a ton of polls conducted there. whereas when you look at a state like new hampshire, we have seen maddie hanson's chances dp s di little bit. it seems like voters are actually voting for candidates instead of parties. >> i actually think parties are a pretty useful proxy for voters, but i think it hasn't for the candidate in indiana, i mean biden is a specific thing, because he's a revolving door, as a senator, he worked in d.c., and he's getting hammered for that. in nevada, that's a race that, again, that's a race where when you look at the map, you see joe happ who's running for that seat. he looks like he's ahead. kwhechb you look at the
precedence, what harry reid is able to do, what the unions are able to do, in terms of turnout. >> four years ago, dean hall larhallard was barely -- hillary will win by 4 or 5, and cortez speaks by, the polling average is so close, it wouldn't take a large polling error to win. >> he just narrowly got over, even though it -- >> you've also got, i think the missouri race is the most. >> missouri, kind of like indiana, it's not really on the map, in the presidential. there's not a ton of presidential infrastructure there to turn folks out.
roy blount, who i think is the republican people really didn't think he would be challenged. >> secretary of state sjason cantor, and he is giving blount an absolute run for his money. >> an absolute run for his money. when you speak to the pollers they say it's absolutely no close to call. it's really a race that could be too close to call. and i also point out that the gubernatorial races in indiana and missouri are very, very tight at this time. so it wouldn't be shocking wh i. >> cantor won't have the benefit in missouri of a full-fledged flooding of democrats through the clinton gotv operation. as say someone like katie
mcginty. >> where are you guys? what are the key races for you guys? i would imagine katie mcginty, cortez mastro in nevada. >> it would be new voices, but we're at the end, where is the main focus. we always talk about these kind of races, huge shoutout to tammy duckworth. we always territory about tammy duckworth, but she's rocking it. >> she was both a veteran, she served in the department of veteran's affairs, she's now a congresswoman, she's running against in tthe incumbent. that's probably the least contested senate that's a contested one in the country. >> and it's a pickup for
democrats. so it's an important one, so we all leave that one. i need to give her a big shoutout, because she's done so inge credibly well. you need the races that are going to encourage the democratic majority in the senate. catherine cortez in nevada must win, hold seat, but a must-win seat. you've got maggie hassan, katie mcginty against pat toomey. the other jason cantor surprise race is deborah ross in north carolina. >> that race is fascinating to me too. here's the reason. you know, cantor is running this classic sort of up and coming fresh face versus the old creature of washington campaign, roy blunt is the future of washington, i'm new, i hear you. that's not really what's going on in the north carolina race.
particular -- >> she has really been a champion for consumerism, for civil liberties, for women and families, she's served in the state legislature. so some folks give her that piece of it. she's actually served in public office. >> and i think that's really resonating, when you're up against richard burr, who's someone who has talked away from north carolina. who by the way has had a terrible week, after he suggested violence against hillary clinton. >> he apologized for it, said it was a joke, just to be clear. >> but this is not something to joke about. >> and he also said, and i think this is one of the most importantly news of the week, that he would try to keep scalia's seat open for four years, until he returned to the zmat. senate. >> i know we have got a long way to go in iowa, and in arizona,
though arizona with the early vote numbers, you're just talking about the latino turnout. ann kirkpatrick has put together an extraordinary cam pain. but john mccain came out and said that if it's hillary clinton for president, we're not going to do it through the court. these republicans continue to just be obstructionists. and that's a problem. >> do you think that monves voters? do you think it moves democratic voters? >> i think it also moves women. i think women are very, very frustrated with the nonaction, and what is happening is not grit lock in the congress. it is republicans causing gridlock. >> is the reason they're saying those things is they think it motivates their people. and they have boot strapped the whole rationale for the presidency.
sometimes think it's an asymmetry in what moves the party. still to come, the clinton campaign grabbing a big name in a series of get out the votes concerts, as we watch katy perry on stage. no, that's jon bon jovi, i know it's not katy perry. the woman who ran that effort for president obama in 2008 joins me next. but let's listen to bon jovi, not katy perry which is written in prompter, as we go to break. ♪ ♪ ♪
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right now hillary clinton's concert series in battle ground seas in pennsylvania, ohio and north carolina. it includes artists like stevie wonder, jennifer lopez and john bonn bon jovi. the obama campaign 2008, she's now running for local office in her neighborhood. people open the campaign with the concerts, and you're like, oh, that's fun, i guess you can get a lot of people to come. but there's a pretty intense
organizing strategy underneath the con serts. >> the value of surrogates is that they can talk to voters with a different voice and a different message and really drive home what's at stake in the election and why their vote matters. the organization comes through in three ways, the first is organizing directly in some states, with early vote locations, it was no coincidence for the cleveland concert yesterday that they gave out free tickets, you had to pick it up in person, and oh, by the way, it's across the street from the early voting location, so it would be great if you went across the street and got your vote in. so in places where there aren't early vote opportunities, everybody who gets a free ticket has to share their name and contact information to the campaign so if you look at mobilizing on election day, you have maybe a different group of voters than where you started to
really energize and make sure they show up on tuesday. >> the field operations in swing states are quite sophisticated and developed. but a concert like this, you see katy perry in philadelphia, which is a crucial place to turn out the vote. there's going to be some people who show up, who you haven't had a lot of voter contact with, or who aren't in the database, and you don't have a good record with touchers as you say. so then you have people going to them two days later to try to get them out. >> there's people who have tuned out this election, but they follow katy perry on instagram. and she's promoting her presence in philadelphia and high she's with hillary clinton, it's just another channel to reach voter who is may not be your traditional targets.
>> one of the most fascinating -- the increasing sophistication and refinement of the democratic party's operatives in turning voters out. each cycle from '08 to '16 are building on it. it's not a lot of fair knowledge that's accrued is that fair to say? >> these venues are very large, obviously kind of having vip access and being up front and in the first couple of rows is a very special thing for fans especially. so the campaign has figured out that we can ask people to pick up a walk packet and canvass a neighborhood and in exchange, they'll get a ticket for the front couple rows at a concert that's really important to them. >> when we come back, why "the national enquirer" would buy the
which case it's, like, thank god. i came back for donald trump. or he is going to lose, and people are going to be, like, take out the men in black thing, and we're all just everyone is going to be, like, that never happened. that was a fluke. he was a celebrity. that was totally weird. let's get back to it. >> right. >> and there they go. >> big question. the fight. the first fight on this, right? the question is, like, everyone has to answer. >> that's -- that's the --
>> trying to get off that today after saying he wouldn't defend him, which seemds to me like, hey, dude. he likes that because he knows that trump is not going to win. i mean -- >> he is covering his bases with his voters. do you think that's true? >> well, look, i mean the vote was in the house on the republican side november 15th. it's exactly one week after the election. the speaker vote in the house, which would be a bigger threat to ryan is january 3rd. ryan will win the conference vote. he will win the speaker vote as well, i believe. this is uncertain. we'll have to see where it goes from here. >> thank you for joining us. >> our special free election addition continues with a bonus second. starts right after this break. we have much more to come. don't go anywhere.
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♪ and the rocks on the sand... ♪ it's so peaceful up here. yeah. [ eagle screech ] introducing the new turbocharged volkswagen alltrack with 4motion® all-wheel drive. soon to be everywhere. >> it is now 9:00 p.m. on the east coast. just three days to election day. who is counting at this point, right? at this hour we're tracking live campaign events. the candidates and the surrogates begin the final push. hillary clinton just wrapped up a get out the vote concert with katy perry in philadelphia. a major democratic stronghold in pennsylvania. o