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tv   All In With Chris Hayes  MSNBC  November 6, 2016 2:00am-3:01am PST

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good evening from new york, i'm chris hayes. at this hour, we have duelling rallies. donald trump about to take the stage at an event in reno, nevada. hillary clinton about to hold a concert in philadelphia with singer katy perry. we are now, i can't believe it, just three days from election day and as of this morning, there have been nearly 40 million votes already cast the data suggesting that latinos are giving hillary clinton a big boost. national polls show clinton with a three-point lead although of course it comes down to the electoral college. clinton has a clear lead in 268 electoral votes in hand. according to 538. she needs, of course.
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270 to win. more than that accompanied by big names in cleveland, beyonce rocking a pants suit and jay-z. president obama, bill clinton and bernie sanders. trump has been much more on his own with prominent main street republicans keeping their distance. joining me now, trump campaign senior adviser a.j. delgado. i think you guys feel fairly confident. you have the candidate going all over the place, minnesota, places that i think, you know, you wouldn't expect. do you guys have internal data? >> absolutely. i think just based on trade deals alone, when you have working class americans, whether it's in a blue state who have been affected by the trade deals, the 5 million manufacturing jobs lost as a result of nafta in addition tos had anti-war message, anti-legal
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immigration message -- >> his anti-war message. >> wait a minute. can you tell me how bomb the s out of them is a -- >> can you tell how playing chicken with russia doesn't lead to world war iss. i don't think you can deny this. >> i think that's a very strong -- >> he realize you have to say that. >> that's a quote of him. we're going to bomb the s out of him. you can say he has different perspectives but that's very hard to clarify as -- >> we agree we don't need to set up a no fly zone the way hillary clinton which will lead -- >> a.j., i don't think that's true. first of all, clearly not everyone agrees on it. but all i'm saying with everything hillary clinton, you just characterized his message as an anti-war message. bomb the s out of them is not an anti-war message. that's all i'm saying.
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bomb the s out of them is not -- you take it more literally. >> i mean with a fervent interventionist approach which hillary clinton has and you have admit that you have severe concerns. >> i think she has intervention instincts. >> i think there's also other problems with giving a bunch of people nuclear weapons. let me ask you this. if you have a story about melania trump working illegally, while she was here she was clearly paid to do work without a work visa, that's a violation of immigration law. >> no. >> i don't care. why should she not be punished for that and millions of americans should be? >> well, you're assuming that report is correct. it's not. she was here legally, worked legally. she's always observed all of the laws. >> are the documents fake? >> i'm not sure what documents you're referring to. has in that article, i think we have to go back many years to see if the documents are correct. >> the documents about her getting paid not while on a work
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visa to work, which is a violation of immigration law, which is something, let's be clear, millions of people do it every year. >> chris, let's be clear, the only issue we're going to talk about melania trump is these two phenomenal speeches given by this woman. america has fallen love with this woman. she did not break the law. do you want to talk about hillary clinton breaking the law? do you want to talk about hillary clinton's bribes she's accepted from the clinton foundation. let's talk about russia and uranium deal. that's the breaking the law that concerns americans. >> i understand that's a pivot. i get that. >> that's the talking point. >> it's not a pivot. it actually matters. it's a pivot to relevance that actually matters. >> you're representing a candidate who has said he would go door to door and kick millions of people out. because they broke the law? when he said there was a deportation force? >> a deportation force already
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exists, it's called i.c.e. obama uses i.c.e. is obama going door to door? is that what you are saying? >> my question for you is, for people who have broken the law in the way similar to melania trump, why should those people be deported? >> she did not break the law. >> the a.p. has got it wrong. >> she did not break the law. this is ridiculous that you're claiming that she broke the law as though it matters three days out. >> a.j., this is a candidate who for 15 months has said immigrants coming here illegally are breaking the law and have to pay the consequences. that candidate, the candidate you are supporting has said this for month. >> yes. and this is a candidate -- hillary clinton for months has said she didn't lie to the fbi. it turns out she did send classified information. how did get 650,000 emails end up on anthony weiner laptop. is she criminal or stupid? she's either corrupt or
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incredibly inept? i don't know which is worse. >> do you honestly doesn't matter if melania trump broke the immigration law? >> did she? no. >> would it matter or not. just answer that question. >> clinton is under fbi investigation. to the bernie sanders supporters watching, i understand completely why you're staying home, and i salute you, because i would not vote for that corrupt criminal if my life depended on it. so i understand, the bernie sanders supporters, they are opting out. good for them. >> obviously you do not. >> they are opting out, chris. good for them. >> would it matter if melania broke the immigration law? >> would it matter to you if hillary clinton accepted bribes? it looks like she did. >> it's my show and i get to answer the question. >> and i'm here as a guest. i get to ask them too. love you, chris. joining me now, senior fellow at the pro clinton group media matters for america. what do you think, eric? >> i think it matters. i'll answer the question. yes, it matters. >> i don't think it matters. >> no, i don't think it doesn't matter. i don't think it matters. my point is that it doesn't matter. it doesn't matter and it doesn't
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matter -- i honestly think those kinds of gray area infractions that happen all the time are not things that along a spectrum of infraction that are almost a crime without a victim, yeah, a lot of people have done that for all sorts of reasons and a lot of the people who have done that have made america great. >> hypocrisy matters, is my point. you can't run around the country saying we got to get rid of these people and it turns out that your wife happens to fall under that umbrella. that's my point. >> where are you right now on the state of the race? when you look at what has happened in the post sort of comey era, this idea that their closing argument, which we didn't even get to because we were talking about that stuff, this idea of change, about knocking off the globalist elite? >> take my mike off. >> where do you see the campaign post comey? >> in terms of status, i think it's very similar to post
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pneumonia. there was this big friday-saturday blow-up when hillary had a pneumonia. bout. the polls went south for five days and it was a major interruption. we've seen that same thing. some early polls, after this comey shocker, people like my barber told me the fbi had reopened this investigation, when that false information got out, i think it interrupted the race. i think we're back to where the race was now. i think she clearly has the momentum, as you talked about the early voting states in nevada and florida. 40 million votes are already cast and she's ahead in those. so i think the race is almost where it was pre-comey shocker. >> there also seems to be that part of the strategy right now in talking about -- it's very interesting to hear, there's clearly a few strategies here. one is, as you can tell from a.j., disaffected bernie folks, anti-war, trade message, part of that is in the midwest.
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but there also seems to be some sort of notion of, look, we're going to make it terrible. i'm sorry. i honestly think it's a very -- and not necessarily a stupid tactic. >> right. >> they had basically all but said trump himself said that the constitutional crisis. >> right. >> and basically the argument is, we're going to make you a brutal slog, if you elect this woman. so maybe you don't do it. >> right. >> again, pre-comey, we saw reports that they were going to try to suppress the vote, the african-american vote. we saw the sort of suppress the bernie sanders vote but now with the comey, and this fake impeachment, we have fox news manufacturing these stories that she's going to be indicted, that they had to walk back. if they can get them to say, you're right, take it, we don't want it, we don't want the president she or the congress, you're going to make it awful, that's their strategy. i can't imagine democrats and a lot of americans are going to
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sit there and say, huh, i'm going to sit at home and give it to him. i don't think anyone has ever bullied the presidency away from another party or scared them away from voting. and i'm just saying look at those lines today. people are waiting two, three, four hours. they don't seem to be afraid that we're going to head into a morass. we'll deal with that when the republican radicals get back. >> it's interesting, clinton during impeachment when bill clinton was quite popular and i think hillary clinton is probably shall did her finest moment in this whole campaign was probably her benghazi testimony. maybe that's in some per verse political way this is actually good. >> look at barack obama. he's at his highest approval rating since 2009, 2010. and they spent eight years trying to block everything he wanted to do. >> eric, thanks for being with me tonight. appreciate it. we have a lot more. i'm going to be here for two hours. settle in, grab a cocktail. do what you are doing. it's saturday night. as we look towards tuesday night, the early voting numbers that don't bode well for donald
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trump. plus, could republicans lose control of the senate or will they retain it? it's hanging by a finger nail. we'll take a look at the latest polling. and hillary clinton's last-minute push to get out to vote. does it achieve more than a admittedly epic photo op? all that and more ahead. simulation initiated. ♪ [beeping] take on any galaxy with a car that could stop for you. simulation complete. the new nissan rogue. rogue one: a star wars story. in theaters december 16th.
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when mexico sends its people, they are not sending the best. >> we have to keep the families together. they have to go. >> what if they have no place to go? >> we'll work with them. they have to go. >> a lot of hispanics. latinos they like to be called in that area. you know that, right? hispanics and latinos. >> sit down. >> go ahead. i have the right to ask a question. >> no, you haven't been called. go back to univision. they are bringing drugs, they are bringing crime, they are rapists. >> we are building a wall. he's mexican. we're building a wall between here and mexico. the answer is, he is giving us very unfair rulings.
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>> we have some bad hombres here and we are going to get them out. >> who is going to pay for the wall? >> mexico! >> who's going to pay for the wall? >> mexico! >> you've ripped out that mexican thing again. >> and some, i assume, are good people. >> the groups donald trump has insulted and threatened during the course of the campaign, mexican-americans were the most consistent of his targets. lucky for trump, they have typically voted at lower rates than other demographic groups. 2012, 48% latinos turned out to vote, 64% whites and 60% -- 67% of african-american voters. this year, however, there are signs that that may be changing. in a number of key battleground states, latino turnaround is up. as of november 1st, latinos made up 13.77% of early voting in florida, a must-win state for trump. that's up 9.89% four years ago.
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it's possible they pull from the same pool of people. who usually vote on election day. in other words, they are voting early instead of adding to the electorate. early suggestions suggest that's not the case. on thursday alone, 82.5% of hispanic early votes were considered low-propensity voters. that's literally nuts, in his words. those are people who may have voted in the last presidential elections, who may have been excluded from recent polls of likely florida voters. joining me now, co-founder of the research and polling firm and professor at ucla. senior political writer and analyst for 538, let me start with you. so two states where we've got both lots of early votes, probably more than half the voting population will vote before election day. and big latino populations. that's nevada and florida. it seems like we're seeing similar trends in both of those
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states when you compare what the numbers say in early votes versus a model or polling would predict about the composition of the electorate. spell it out for us. >> absolutely. we're seeing far greater early voting numbers than most of the mainstream models are predicting latinos, in particular, in florida and also in nevada are overperforming there's also the data polling from dan smith at the university of florida put out that 30% of the latinos were either new registrants or no voting history. these are people voting at high rates, very high rates compared to what we saw in 2012 and they are not seeing this swell that we are seeing on the ground in both of those competitive, very critical as you said for trump battleground states. the latino vote is very, very strong right now. >> so one of the things, harry, with early voting, there's lots of data and lots of ways you can
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screw the data up. >> sure. >> we know partisan affiliation, we know some demographic information but what we don't know, the campaigns know, the clinton campaign, the propensity. you want to them to vote early as opposed to to moving a person who is definitely going to vote on election day is moving it up two weeks. >> exactly. a vote on election day is worth the same amount as a vote cast early. there seems to be a lot of low-propensity voters voting early. here's the question for hillary clinton. >> is it merely that we're getting more latinos into the electorate while african-americans are voting at lower rates? if that's the case, that's not a -- good scenario for her. it will be interesting to see as we move forward in the election. >> steve scale in florida had sort of raised alarm bells and it looks like the percentage of
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the electorate that's black has come up a bit in early voting. one thing that's fascinating. he's live tweeting the numbers in nevada and he's at one location which is a mexican grocery store. >> cardenas? >> yes. that's the scene right there. this is nuts, these people are -- they are going to, you know, if you're in line, it's going to stay open, they are going to bank another thousand votes. he's sort of in realtime watching what is happening and latino decisions pointed out in a poll in 2012, the final was 2.8. in reality, it was 6.7. do you think it's the case that public polling is not capturing latinos effectively? >> it could. harry reid, go back to 2010. all the polls had harry reid was toast. >> he was toast. >> and then he won easily over sharon engle. we have a trend line going back
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through history where we know most voters vote early in that state, and we know that party affiliati affiliation, which tends to hold through election day. there are a percentage of people who voted and if that holds to election day, it's difficult for donald trump to win that state. so, matt, what is your sense from the early voting data and the polling and then stuff in arizona and i think the arizona story is fascinating. if you look at arizona, i said this the other day, georgia looks more competitive than arizona does and yet no one is going to georgia and a lot of people have been going to arizona and i know the clinton campaign has arizona on their target list. they are working that state in a way that they are not working georgia. what do you think the story is there? >> arizona, you know, don't forget about sheriff joe. there's a very hot re-election in maricopa county bringing out
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a lot of latinos. you wouldn't believe the number the people going door to door, not just in a national election but a local county sheriff election. i think that's going to be a huge upset. that down-ticket race may have reverse coat tails and bring out more voters to vote joe arpaio out of office. i think arizona is absolutely in play. we're playing very hard there. it continues to be ad buys and on the ground and you're going to see a really large latino vote in arizona. >> one of the things that is a double-edge sword here, people talk about black turnout and i think people fail to appreciate that african-americans turn out more than anyone. >> right. >> i think jewish americans may have the highest turnout when you go through every subgroup but african-americans turn out high, particularly in the south, in terms of education and income, they turn out in very high rates. this issue about latino votes from a tactical perspective, a lot of them are in states that
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aren't competitive, so they don't give you the same electoral bang for the buck. they are not turning out at the same rates. but the flip side of that is if you have latinos voting what african-americans do, that would be a massive change to the structure. >> it would be a huge change. democrats are expected to do better there in large part because latinos are finally motivated to vote in that state. arizona is a key example of that. at this point, joe arpaio is favored to lose re-election and that's a perfect example where you could see that upticket voting. very interesting time there. >> thanks for joining us. if you could stick around after the break. we'll look at whether democrats could gain control of the senate, but first my kids are here tonight, ryan and david, it's time to play the animal videos. and if you're a regular viewer of the show, it's time to play
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the animal videos. we're opening spanish. first up, butterflies, relaxing as we're coming into the home stretch of 2016. next up, tigers. here's some playing together at the bronx zoo not too far from here. very cute, both of them. we'll be right back.
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all right. hillary clinton is on the stage in philadelphia, the katy perry concert/hillary clinton rally. >> let's take a listen. >> if you have some time, and you want to really be involved
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in winning this election, sign up to help. because when your kids and grandkids ask you what you did in 2016, when it was all on the line, i want you to be able to say, i voted for a better, fairer, stronger america where everybody has a chance at the american dream. [ applause ] i am so excited about this election. because i really think we're going to send a message from coast to coast, east to west,
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north to south about who we are as a country and if we do what we should, then on november the 9th, this coming wednesday, we can all wake up and say, i'm going to do my part to make sure that america lives up to its promise to every one of our people, especially every one of our children who deserve the chance to live up to their god-given potential. so tonight, tonight, it is a celebration for everything that you've already done to help us and all that we will do together, and i am thrilled to introduce a performer whose music has a wonderful message! >> hillary clinton tonight in philadelphia. in that state, this ad right now is currently running. take a look. >> in washington, the rarest political quality is courage. on keeping guns away from criminals, listen to what president obama says about pat toomey. >> we had a democrat and a republican come together and work together to write a commonsense compromise on background checks and i want to
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thank joe manchin and pat toomey for doing that. that was not easy. >> pat toomey fights for us. >> i'm pat toomey and i approve this message. >> yes. that's actually a republican senate ad spot, a new tv spot running for pennsylvania senator pat toomey who is trailing katie mcginty. it's notable, toomey has not answered whether or not he will vote for donald trump. his praise in that ad was not lost on the vice president today. >> that republican senator starts running positive ads with barack obama in them? oh, man. go figure, as my brother would say. isn't that amazing, bobby? he's out there. he doesn't know he's for trump and now he's for barack obama. how things change. isn't it amazing?
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ask yourself, why not get the real deal with katie mcginty. >> after control of the oval office, the next focus will be what's happened on election night, like control of pennsylvania. it's basically a coin flip. democrats have a slight edge in retaking the senate, 52% and 48% respectively. here's what i think has been interesting. there's a bunch of different races and of all the polls i've been following and following the dynamics of the different races, they haven't moved in tandem withal -- in tandem in the way you would in the era of partisan polarization that you have, when you expect trump cresting, they do well. trump falling, they do poorly. they really were moving in a different direction. >> pennsylvania is a perfect example of that. you've seen katie mcginty up up -- open up a lead. one poll has pat toomey ahead. there have been a ton of polls
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conducted there. if you look at indiana, you see evan bye's chances dip. so it's been a very bizarre thing where it almost seems like voters are voting for candidates instead of for parties. isn't that a wonderful thing? or maybe not. >> i think it goes both ways. i think parties are a pretty useful proxy. evan is a revolving door senator and he went and worked in d.c. and he's getting hammered for that. in nevada, that's a race that, again when you look at the math, you think joe hack who is running for the seat. he looks like he's ahead. when you look at the precedent, what harry reid is able to do, what the democrats in that state are able to do, what the unions
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are able to do in terms of turnout, you would think that could get the hand picked harry reid sucker. >> remember, four years ago, they vastly under estimated the polls. it's wouldn't take a large polling era for hoirl illary -- win. missouri like indiana is not really on the map. there's not a ton of presidential infrastructure there to turn folks out. roy blunt, i think at the beginning of the cycle, who is
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the incumbent republican you've got secretary of state jason candor who is a veteran. he's got the best out of the cycle probably where he puts together a gun blind folded. he's giving blunt a run for his money. >> they tell you that race is too close to call. it's really a race that could be too close to call and i also point out that the gubernatorial races in both indiana and missouri are very, very tight at this time. it won be shocking to get two democrats governors. >> candor won't have the benefit in missouri of a full-fledged flooding of democrats through the clinton geotv generation. >> joining me is emily lotte.
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where are you guys -- what are the key races for you guys? i would imagine katie mcginty. >> emily's list is supporting nine candidates this year. eight would be new voices. but we're at the end. where is the main focus. we always talk about these tight races. a huge shot -- shout out to tammy duckworth. she's rocking it. >> i should make the point, she served in the department of veterans affairs. she's a congresswoman. >> purple heart recipient. >> she's almost certainly going to win and the reason i didn't bring her up because that's probably the least contested senate race that's a contested one in the country. >> and it's a pick up. it's an important one, but we all sort of leave that one to the side. i want to give her a shot out.
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she's done so incredibly well. you look at the races that are going to determine the race in the senate. nevada must win seat. maggie hassan in new hampshire against kelly ayotte. as you are talking about jason candor, the surprise race is debra ross in north carolina. >> that race is fascinating to me too and here's the reason. you know, candor is running this classic sort of up-and-coming fresh face versus the old creature of washington campaign. roy blunt is this i'm new. that's not really what's going on in that north carolina race. tell me who deborah ross is. i thd fer -- find her particularly fascinating. >> she's a champion for
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consumerism and civil liberties and women and families. she's served in the state legislature. some folks forget that piece of it. >> she was a public interest lawyer, basically. >> yes. absolutely, and i think that's really resonating when you are up against richard burr who is somebody who walked away from north carolina, is tied to all the special interests, who by the way has had a terrible week after he suggested violence against hillary clinton. >> he apologized for it and said it's a joke. >> it is not something to joke about it. >> he said he would try to keep scalia's seat open for four years were he to turn to the senate. >> this is a huge thing in a couple of other races. i know we've got a long way to go in iowa and arizona. arizona with the early vote numbers, you are just talking about the latino turnout, i get it, but -- ann kirkpatrick has
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put together an extraordinary campaign running against john mccain, but john mccain came out and said, if it's hillary clinton as president, we're not going to do anything with the court. chuck grassley in iowa is saying we're not going to put anybody in there. these republicans continue to be obstructionists. >> you think that moves voters. >> i think it moves independent women. they are very frustrated with the nonaction. what is happening is not gridlock in congress. it's republicans causing gridlock. >> they think it motivates their people. they bootstrap the whole rationale for the trump presidency out of holding the seat open. sometimes i think there's an asymmetry in terms of how it moves the parties. still to come, the hillary
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clinton campaign grabbing a series of get out the vote concerts. katy perry, that's not her. that's jon bond joseph -- joe -- bon jovi. let's listen to jon bonjovi, and not katy perry as is written on the prompter as we go to break. ♪ ♪
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right now, hillary clinton's concert tour continues. as you can see a free katie
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perry show. last night, she was on stage of the beyonce and jay-z. it also includes stevie wonder, jennifer lopez and jon bon jovi. it's an under the radar tactic. joining me now is jill baker who is integral in organizing these type of events. people look at the campaign -- the concerts and they think that's fun. i guess you get a lot of people to come, but there's a pretty intense organizing strategy underneath these concerts. explain what it is. >> there absolutely is. thank you for having me. so the value of surrogates is they can talk to voters with a different voice and a different
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message and drive home what's at stake in the election and why their vote matters and the organizing value comes out in three ways. the first is, you know, organizing directly, so in states with early vote locations, you know, it was no coincidence for the cleveland it was across the street for early voting. as mobilization tools, some places where there aren't early vote opportunities, everyone who gets a free ticket has to share their name and contact information with the campaign so when you look at mobilizing on election day, you have a different group of voters than you had before you started to really energize and make sure she show up. >> that's interesting. i hadn't thought of that. you guy in field operations in swing states are quite sophisticated and developed but the idea is that a concert like
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this, if you do katy perry in philadelphia which is a crucial place for democrats to turn out votes to win the state of pennsylvania, the thinking is there's going to be some percentage of people show up, that you haven't had a lot of voter contact with or aren't in the database or you don't have a good record of touches with as organizers say that come to you and you can good back to two days later to try to get them out. >> that's exactly right. a lot of these voters for this year especially have tuned out this election and may be following the ins and outs of either campaign but they follow katy perry on instagram. she's promoting her presence in philadelphia and getting out to vote. it's just another channel to reach voters who may not be your traditional targets. >> this is something, it seems to me, one of the most fascinating stories in politics over the last eight years is the increasing sophistication and refinement of the democratic parties operatives in turning
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voters out. it seems to me that each cycle from '08 to '12 to '16 has built on it. there's a lot of institutional knowledge that's accrued. is that a fair thing to say? >> that's right. especially around these concerts, these venues are very large. obviously, kind of having vip access and being up front and the first couple of rows is a very special thing for fans especial especially. >> teal baker, thank for joining me. why the national enquirer would buy the rights of an alleged affair between donald trump and a playboy model only to never publish it? that story after this break.
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v8. veggies for all.
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donald is a wonderful husband, father, and grandfather. he's strong. he's determined. bold and decisive. he's also compassionate, thoughtful, giving and loving. [ cheers and applause ] >> donald cares -- >> melania trump speaking on behalf of her husband in north
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carolina yesterday. so this -- the national enquirer story basically a woman alleged to have an affair with donald trump in 2006. the national enquirer is oh, totally sell us this story which is how it works in the tabloid story and they killed it. it's called catch and kill. the enquirer very tied to donald trump. what crack me up? all the things that donald trump has done and said, the 12 women on the record accusing him of unwanted sexual contact, the grab them by the whatever, you know, they probably could have run the story and it would have been fine. >> at least it's consensual. donald has a habit of trading in the mrs. every year -- few
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years. it's not shocking around 10 years ago not long around the time she was pregnant. that he was off to the races again and i think it's sad we've gotten to a point in our culture it's not shocking anymore. this is a garden variety minor scandal for a presidential campaign. >> this is a man whose if i land dering everyone has known. >> on the list of things about donald trump, frankly, the fill landering is so far down. >> it's consensual. that's a messed up thing to do to your wife and family, both parties were at least consenting. >> that's his business. there are so many other aspects of donald trump that are far more important than that that it would have been disqualifying if -- if the bar hadn't been -- i won say lowering.
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it's gone. >> here's the thing, matt. this is one of the most amazing things that's happened in this campaign. "access hollywood" tape has come out. reaction is a horrible reaction. a cal va kad of republicans say i'm out. i can't defend the guy. sorrow, furrowed brow. jason chaffetz. i can't look my daughter in the face. after that 12 women come forward basically accusing him of the behavior he said he did and all those people, a bunch of them after saying i can't, i can't, my soul is so destroyed by this, are like i'm totally voting for the dude. it is bun of the -- one of most kraven things i've ever seen. i've got to say. >> i've -- it's reflected this
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bizarre contortion that they are in. they don't want to lose republican voters. >> if you are going to say i don't care about the guy's moral character, i don't care if you touch women against their consent, because i'm that much of a believer of the republican party controlling the wheels of government, that's a principled argument, but spare me the sew lily qis, out offensive, how anguished you are. if you are going to support the guy. support the guy. do your thing. >> all these republican elect tor rats found out who their voter was. this has been the story since day one. it's not about donald trump. it's about -- >> it's about the voters supporting him. >> it trand sends this campaign. these voters are not going
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anywhere. >> they are not moving out of your district if you are a congressman. >> we found out who these politicians are, these men are, and we found out their own moral character is questionable. everyone is going to have to answer the question where did you stand when this person was running for president. you were for him. for him. for him, for him, for him. >> joy said that and at some level it's true. in a historical sense when they write the history books, but in terms of the parry and thrust of everyday republican politics, do you think that's going to change things?
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>> look at 8:00 a.m. on wednesday morning, if trump loses, the republican party is going to drop donald trump like third period french. it's going to happen immediately. the trump base will be there. there will be a third or 40% of the republican primary ele electora electorate. what happens to his base? where do they go? >> the big fight -- the first fight on this -- this question is going to have to answer where they were, in the world of internal republican applications -- politics, the first answer on that if he were to lose or wins, frankly, is that ryan speaker? >> they are going to demand to pick the speaker. they are already spoiling to do that. they want -- >> they want to destroy him. >> and jason chaffetz now probably believes that he can walk up there and get the speakership. >> you got paul ryan right --
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writing an op ed today. >> he writes that because he knows trump is not going to win. >> that's covering his bases with his voters. quickly, do you think that's true? >> well, the vote within the house on the republican side is november 15th. it's exactly one week after the election. the speaker vote in the house which would be a bigger threat to ryan is january 3rd. ryan is going to win the conference vote by a large margin on november 15th. it's uncertain. we'll see where we go from there. >> change for joining me on this lovely saturday night. our special edition starts with this bonus second hour. starts right after this break. don't go anywhere.
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east coast, just three days until election day, although who is counting at this point. we're tracking live campaign events around the country as the candidates and their surrogates begin their final push to get voters to the polls. hillary clinton wrapped up a get out the vote concert with katy perry in pennsylvania. one of the few gbattleground states with no early voting. >> donald trump is campaigning in reno, nevada. we have jacob rascon and kelly

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