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tv   The Place for Politics 2016  MSNBC  November 6, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm PST

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ack, or, get 0% financing for 72 months on select remaining 2016 silverado double cabs in stock. find new roads at your local chevy dealer. look at that. you are looking live at democracy plaza. what we affectionately call home. and up the road in new england, you're looking live at an event in manchester, new hampshire. hillary clinton has taken the stage for a late sunday night rally there on this night before election eve. tonight there is big news. we have been kickoffing breaking news all evening. today's letter of fbi director comey to congress.
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mr. comey could not have changed the tenor of this presidential race more than he already has. and so, his decision on this football sunday to say in effect, nothing to see here. the ruling on the field stands, where it relates to those clinton e-mails has both campaigns now reacting fast and wondering what might have been. good evening, all. brian williams, rachel maddow, chris matthews. rachel, what a six-hour period. >> it's been a remarkable close to this campaign in general. this campaign was going to be one for the record books regardless. we've got somebody running for the first time ever who has zero record of public service, who would be the oldest president inaugural rated if we with wins. we would have the first woman president. they made history by their just being nominated. but to get to the end and have it be this, it is the best
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analogy i can come up with for what the fbi did is if you were a pilot or a firefighter as you are, or something else, which you needed a physical, go to the dock torks get your physical. the doctor calls your employer and says we drew blood. when you draw blood, you can diagnose all sorts of stuff. all sorts of stuff that can kill you, so i just want you to know, we drew blood. and thep nine days later, your doctor then kaus your would be employer back and says, by the way, we did lock at the blood results and it turns out it's fine. in case you're thinking about still hiring that person. what the fbi director did here was such an intervention into this race. a lot of o people early voted between the time he made that then said never mind.
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the fbi will never be viewed the same. >> chris, we've been watching your coverage. what do you make of it? >> final absorb you had what rachel understands here, there was a time impact. it does matter because it has mattered to all the early voting. i have found an interesting parallel with baseball. the final game of the world series where you had the amazing three-run homer by davis, which was sort of this intervention. but it didn't stop the ultimate resu result. i think the campaign will go back on. i'm surprised by hillary clinton and her people are smart. they know more than we know. they decided not to really jump on this. decided not to make this a chance to spike the ball or whatever to say we're right, they're wrong. i think they want to end this campaign on some other topic than the e-mails. zwl they don't want a sound bite containing the frad e-mails.
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they wanted to be on something because she said when they go low, we'll go high. she needs that. she's probably going to win in her head and therefore, she's already building toward a government. that she's got to lead and i think today when she started to say i know some people don't trust me. she's trying to build that connection which she's capable of. maybe by not jumping on this with her two feet, she may have a chance to say you know what, okay, i won this one. i'm not perfect, but let's talk about the future together. >> it's interesting to think just thought experiment, chakd she say about this. if she was going to jump on it. how could she because you're right. as long as efb's talk b at her e-mails. nine days aerks he didn't allege wrong doing. so, her saying i'm cleared still means we're talking about this story. which was nothing from the very beginning. nothing. >> as a political matter, the trump campaign celebrated the
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fbi director forfor nine days. today, they pivoted to see, we told you, the system is rigged and as a matter of law, our justice correspondent, pete williams, covers the fbi director as part of his broad meat of topics in washington. i saw a statement by you today saying that in effect, this is lights out for this investigation. >> right, this is not the halftime report to pick up on your football analogy. we've looked at the e-mails, the question of whether they were classified materials on her server. what they say is that they've gone through and foubd that many of them as we suspected they would be were duplicates with a data set the fbi already had after months of gathering the documents that were found on her server. many were duplicates, some social message, what time do you want to go to the airport. the remainder, they determined
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one and two partial bits of classified information and that's why comey says this doesn't change the bottom line for us. they had concluded that no prosecutor would bring this case. >> pete williams with the ek pla nation of today's legal matter. >> now we're going to go north live to manchester, new hampshire, where andrea mitchell is at the clinton event there. in her closing argument, hillary clinton is appear wg the father of captain khan who was killed in iraq. how's it been tonight in new hampshire? what's happening there? >> it's been extraordinary. first of all, she did not mej s mention the e-mail continuesy with lebron james. their decision is and their telling us this. anytime they are talking about e-mails and people are thinking about private servers, they are losing the game. they know there has been damage.
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they had the momentum over the last nine days just stalled and the real damage if she does end up winning none the less, the damage to republican candidates who now got a lifeline. so, the damage is to their democratic opponents. kelly ayotte may well win here in new hampshire. same for roy blunt in m missouri. real tang bable results damaged to democrats around this country from what happened in the last nine day. tonight, there was a concert. it's filled. the overflow room is filled. there are lot of people here. james taylor played for 45 minutes. it was extraordinary and i thought, well, that is so mellow, how does khan follow that. he came and this crowd was on their feet screaming for him
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with his heartbreaking story about his son and a message against bullying. this has been sort of magical night staying on message and trying to recapture the momentum going into the final day. >> thank you very much. live report from new hampshire. on that key point of the momentum. the momentum feels different this career than it does other years because some of the vote cast. trying fo capture the exact moment where we are on the campaign without that vote banked and on that note, we go to now peter alexander, who in moon township, pennsylvania. which is where to be the's trump event is getting underway. what's the scene there? zbr he's an hour behind. ultimately, he'll sleep in florida tonight, but despite the fbi e-mail conclusion today, the
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folks here don't believe that hillary clinton has been vindicated. chance of lock her up have been peppered throughout the course of last hour as we've anticipated. donald trump's aprooifl in his last stop in michigan, he said what has been the campaign's message. since this announcement. he said that it's not b possible that the fbi could have gone through 650,000 e-mails in the last nine days. he says that hillary clinton is guilty and ultimately is urning the voters to provide the final verdict on tuesday, november 8th. what strikes is the fact that these people who said were coming around to trump are proud of supporting him. that's what a senior adviser told me. the problem has never been the white working class voters, it's been the suburban republicans, were kalas trant about their support. he says those are the ones that as a result of this e-mail investigation have come home. much the same way mike pence has described it. we are hearing from aides over
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the course of this day, they're projecting real confidence, specifically about the state of michigan and the upper midwest. it's a state that no republican has won since 1988. if that path doesn't work, they're hoping he might pick up a state like minnesota. no republicans won there since 1972. trump today as we're hearing cnn sucks chants behind me now. cnn was in minnesota, he's bb there many times. today was the first day he had a rally. back to you. >> thank you. in moon township, pennsylvania. it is a weird act of, not exactly bravery. but it is something different than it usually is on political campaign to show up at a donald trump rally as a political reporter. the way that the speakers including trump himself direct the crowd to turn on reporters in the room to denounce them and scream at them and flip them off. it's a weird thing. >> our technical folks will tell you there's been a record number
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of requests for the two ear ear piece we always wear. i wear one in one ear, but in a loud environment, you wear two and you have to block out the world or nothing you say would make sense, so as long as no one gets hurt, a boisterous room i think we would call that. let's bring in our expanded family. nicole wallace is here with us. former xlcommunications directo for the bush 4i white house and eugene robinson with "the washington post" whose column this week sets out his closing argument on why people should not vote for donald trump. nicole, what do you make of to this sunday, in american politics? >> well, i think it's more sinister. going back to your blood. i hate blood, so don't know why i'm going black. >> the blod draw. zbl we were on the air when the news broke and there was the sense there was something wrong,
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it was more like the early indications are that the patient is sick. there was a great story of "new york times" about impact the news had on donald trump as a candidate. turned him into something no friend, no family member had been able to do. dana bash described him today as a thunder bolt from god. gave him the space he could win, so not only is it immeasurable that it affected the people who already voted, it turned him into somebody different. >> my favorite detail in the story twhauz steve bannon, he late rally caught on fire. it's the most overused method forin metaphor. he was focused so much on frying to come up with a response, his
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pants lit on fire. >> that's the heat of political campaign. you know -- zpl yeah. zpl really happened. he was next to a -- >> he had on like -- special pants. >> i thought it was spontaneous combustion. >> i think the clinton campaign's reaction to today's comey letter and let's hope there are no more before tuesday, was just realism. a whole bunch of people have early voted. under the impression that hillary clinton was once again being investigated on the e-mails and you know, all the smoke out there. and so now, they know there's no fire. did that affect the vote? probably did. did it affect the vote hugely? i wonder. i think it probably did some republicans home to party. i think it did and this is more important for down ballot races. probably did bring out
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republicans. to sit this one out. >> you know, how did -- had it been 36 hour, three days, nine days of early voting when more than 30 million americans are early voting. he hit the sweet spot in terms of locking in something negative about candidate. if comey did have as a political mizechiga missile, he kobt couldn't have hit it more directly. >> the day after the election, that would have been, people would be going crazy, so, you know t bulk of the vote will be out on tuesday. and yeah, i think the clinton folks want to pmitigate the damage. >> i heard the clinton campaign fearing, the comey letter may have been a permission splip for moderate republicans who couldn't vote for donald trump or so they thought, wow, early in the evening.
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and went the other way, could not in the end support hillary clinton. our first break and our coverage will continue on the other side. james carville, among those waits to talk to us. we'll be right back.
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there they are skating on the rink that will prove two night frs now, will show the national map. where the red is, the blue is. for now, it's all the way up the side of our building. if you're watching on a sunday night prime time, you're a nervous democrat or republican or can't get behind oakland or denver. beb that as it may, we welcome them all. hey, where does this race stand? we hear you talk so much about battleground states. we're happy you asked that
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question because steve kornacki is at the big board with a concentration on the battlegrounds. i see stripes. >> because there's states where it's gets by congressional district. the big picture, we've known this for a while. clinton is ahead in trump is playing from behind. so the question the you're trump and you're trying to pull off a come from behind win, what do you need to happen in right now, clinton in good shape here in states equalling 268 electoral votes. the gray you see these are the closest states. these have been the toss up states and obviously, if clinton's that close to 270, if you're donald trump, you have to run the table. your first option here is run the table in every one of o these gray states. every one of these toss up state, if you get them all and get those two congressional districts, you get 270. the problem for the trump campaign, some of the indications we have been getting from early voeing from demographic patterns, sukt he is in trouble.
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nevada. nevada is looking very shaky. trz if you give one state, give nevada to clinton, she's over 270. she would be president-elect unless you can take one of the states that's blue and flip it to the republican, so where the decide been spending his time? michigan is a state they're focusing on. pennsylvania. what's the formula? they're looking for places where we're talking about rural white voters, noncollege white voter, also talking ab states that don't have larnl latino populations. that's another story hear. you start looking at these states. when they look inside minnesota, this is an ultra long shot.
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make no mistake, but if you're the trump campaign, what do you see? you think about the iron range. this is a blue collar state. traditionally democratic. there have been some kagss that trump could win the district up here that's normally democratic. maybe the upper peninsula in michigan. the rural parts of michigan. mccomb county. run up the score with maeb you could flip one o twor of these states. this is an indication of trouble they're having in some of these states. you need a hail mary pass in one of these states. >> before the night is over, donald trump's going to loud b b b county on the western epd of
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the babd outside d.c. they're in minnesota for goodness sake. >> they're desperate, but the pattern is clear, this has been i mean, it's a sad commentary on the democratic party now. used to be the party of the little guy, the little woman. forgotten man a. and now, it's the party of the college educated because if there's one indicator you look at, did you finish college, they tend to be people voting for hillary clinton, who's very well educated and represents the establishment class and democratic party used to represent those people. we're going to hear from robert costa from western pennsylvania. i think you have to go outside the city of philadelphia where i was born. outside the suburbs where people read the newspaper, catch the train, maybe go to new york were a play once in a while. they're sophisticated. you go beyond the brif ledged area of the big city, purk as well and you reach the trump voter. he's outnumbered. a he mostly and he's angry.
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the question we got to deal with eventually is where they going to go next? back to the republican party under paul ryan? will he be able to bring them in or go, will the democrats go looking for him? i would tlik see a competition. like to see hillary clinton say you may be angry at me, but i'm going to try to bring you in and the interesting thing is, minorities because of their economic status in the country, have the same status as working and poor whites. they should have the same issues. remember the great "saturday night live" thing a few weeks ago, showed the guy doing black jeopardy and tom hanks played the trump guy that had tall right answers. it could bring them together. >> i've enjoyed my moment as a noncollege educated white male. i have noeever felt so sought after and special. our friend lawrence o'donnell is in our sister studio next door
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with our insiders and they're going to weigh in on everything we've witnessed today. hey, lawrence. >> we're lucky we have the guys you want to hear from tonight. james carville and steve schmidt. they've been there on a sunday night before the tuesday presidential election. james, 1992. you were with a candidate called clinton who was polling in the 40s. going in to tuesday. but here's something you didn't have to deal with. a letter from the fbi director. had a campaign playbook between the two that tells you what to do. >> this is the single strangest thing. starting from the press conference to the first letter, now the second letter. i've never seen anything like this. it's remarkable. there is no play book. political something 101, there's not the fbi letter. >> so far, hillary clinton has not said a word about this new letter. zpl you're right. i don't think there's much to say about it.
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the fbi director had this extraordinary intervention politically into the race. the fbi law enforcement organization of the world is leaking in this election like the secret police organization from a banana republic. it is another institution you can put on the list of discredited ones. institutions that have lost the trust of the american people as a direct result of the agency over the last few weeks, but hillary clinton went from being on a track to be between 350 to 400 electoral votes. commanding lead in this race and this hurt. but look, i think you look at map. she's on track here to be over 30 electoral votes somewhere between 320 to 340 heading in. >> in 1991, you guys with bill clinton won the presidency with 43% of the vote because ross perot was a strong third party. what i didn't realize and had to
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look up months ago and was kind of stunned by was that you got 100 more electoral college votes than you needed. at 43% of the vote, you got 370 electoral college votes. >> remember, in the electoral college, it's a plurality, not a majority. and perot got 19. bush was incumbent and got 38. look, i thought that steve's presentation of the map was i agreeded. the thing i'm a little surprised going to loudon county, virginia. not sure that's the target rich area of virginia, but he has a very tough map. of all those gray states, the mother of them all is florida. that's 29. >> steve, you see donald trump flying to minnesota. >> right. >> like the end of a football game. dropping back. it's fourth down. three seconds left. you're throwing the ball as hard and far as you can down the field. hoping a receiver is going to
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pop up with it in the end zone, but it's unlikely to happen. you know u, statistically, he's not going win minnesota. highly unlikely to win michigan. we kind of come up the sea board, the state of florida, state of north carolina. we look west to arizona and you see some of the early voting numbers now with hispanic vote. it may be we're sitting around oon wednesday morning this race was lost at the first hour when donald trump came down the escalator and talked about mexicans as rapists and murders in this race and we may hear a tidal wave crashing of latino vote here on tuesday night that will forever change american politics. the race that nicole and i were very much a r part of, president bush's re-election, the one race, last six, that republicans had won the popular vote. got 33% of the hispanic vote. >> two things.
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in the morning, how many people voted. if the health of dpoksy, the number of voter participation is some indication, we can say it's healthy. the second thing we're going to say is the coup tri has never been more divided. not just by race. by education, location. the cities and the inner suburbs are going to be overwhelmingly democratic. >> back to the mother ship. brian, back to you. >> all right. lawrence, thank you. thank you to our guests, our insiders. we're going to take another break and the national political reporter with "the washington post" is standing by to talk to us about a state the clinton campaign considers load bearing. that and more as the zamboni works hard on a sunday night when we come back. that my shopf the morning ritual around here. people rely on that first cup and i wouldn't want to mess with that. but when (my) back pain got bad, i couldn't sleep.
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g new cars. you're smart. you already knew that. but it's also great for finding the perfect used car. you'll see what a fair price is, and you can connect with a truecar certified dealer. now you're even smarter. this is truecar. well this here's a load-bearing wall. we'll go ahead and rip that out. that'll cause a lot of problems. hmm. totally unnecessary and it triples the budget. we'll be totally behind schedule, right? (laughschedules.
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schedules. great, okay. wouldn't it be great if everyone said what they meant? the citi® double cash card does. it lets you earn double cash back: 1% when you buy, and 1% as you pay. the citi double cash card. double means double. spent all last week for nine days inpining intregty of jim comey. i think that's unfortunate. even the president of the united states got into the act saying we don't deal with innuendo, speculation, shouldn't be interfering with an election. do they think this announcement is quote interfering with an election? and so, i think they just were way out of bounds in the vicious attack on jim comey because they didn't like the result.
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>> donald trump campaign manager kelly ann conway. we've been talking a lot about pennsylvania tonight. both candidates are just blitzing in these last few days, but they're both in pennsylvania today. >> robert, give us a picture of the two kinds of voters in pennsylvania. all-states have them. the trump voter and nontrump voert. voter. there's a lot of trump signs. a lot of enthusiasm, but in pittsburgh, the city of philadelphia, the organization is there for secretary clinton. the turnout is there. so you could be seeing extraordinary turnout among the trump base, but the clinton base it's there as well. >> what makes the republicans believe they can snatch pennsylvania from the democratic fold?
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every time they seem to believe they can do it. >> it's not just a direct shot. got to be a bang shot. got to get the republicansish in bucks county. when i was there, the fbi probe, pushed republicans toward trump. but you've got democrats in philadelphia and in the suburbs, this is an educated area, an area that's moving toward being a a blue region of the state. >> we've got the president, his wife, the former president, hillary clinton, the three, two obamas, three clintons and bruce springsteen and bon jovi. why philly? all this. effort concentrated in one city the night before election. >> because if the turnout in philadelphia is is strong and you get not only the urban voters in philadelphia, but the springsteen voters in the suburbs and elsewhere, then any kind of strange occurrence in twes, if you get hundreds of thousands of working class
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voters who usually don't turn out in the pittsburgh sush sush ushs, the democrats will be fine. if it comes out around president obama levels in terms of democratic turnout in philly. >> thank you so much. robert costa. this is almost like the dominican republic and haiti. they share the same land mass, but they are two different. the area around philadelphia is probably the amtrak route. part of the east coast, liberal, diverse. includes a lot of white liberals then you get out. i remember in high school, we went to redding, pennsylvania and i know that the religious retreat. i noticed the jukeboxes has cowboy music on them. this t, it's alabama in the middle, it's pretty true. >> you know, the political cop test over pennsylvania because of that gets really intense in terms of the ability for people to vote and voter intimidation issues. you see, it's not an accident that when trump and pence have
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been saying go out and poll watch, you got to make sure we're watching people vote. leave your own pri presimgt, they keep talking about philadelphia. >> gene, i don't think this is going to happen. >> no, i don't think it's going to happen either. it's fascinating that urban rural or urban slash small town split you see in pennsylvania is what's happen ng the rest of the country. it is. you see it in alabama in the real alabama where a city like birmingham is very liberal. and increasingly so, then a few miles outside and you are literally in alabama and that's true in georgia, the atlanta. texas. >> it's true in new york. >> in texas where the cities are bright blue and everything else is red. >> explains -- >> we don't say writ large. >> explains there's never, they've been on the defense in explaining their schedule. this dynamic explains their
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schedule and they're going to have to knit together what you've been talking about. that the reason they're in blue states reliably blue states is their vote breaks down. the reason they're in pennsylvania shoring it up is because they are not positive that there aren't enough. they're prosecutet shia sure, b wouldn't be in michigan if they were positive they're not enough of o those voters, so what's so interesting is even a campaign and candidate with all of the resources and all o traditional metrics and really far superior polling, ground game, they're still going to michigan. they're still going to pennsylvania. with seven celebrities. they're in ohio with lebron james. they're still doing these things because they're not totally positive. >> ten days ago, this was not the schedule. this is the comey effect. this is what jim comey did knot
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election, tto the election. he put donald trump in minnesota and hillary clinton in michigan. that's the way, that's the effect of the momentum change in this race that was put on this race by the external actions of the fbi. and that's, i think it's unforgivable sin for the fbi, but i don't know that it's something we know how to project from. >> for our viewers friday night who did not see chris matthews reporting ton democratic boss in philadelphia, if you missed t t that, but if you were watching tonight, he went home for a little while because he used the word attitude on the air, on television. >> imported from there long enough. >> a-t-t-y- >> we're going to go to a break. we'll be right back. >> he's giving me atty tude. [burke] at farmers, we've seen almost everything,
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so we know how to cover almost anything. even a rodent ride-along. [dad] alright, buddy, don't forget anything! [kid] i won't, dad... [captain rod] happy tuesday morning! captain rod here. it's pretty hairy out on the interstate.traffic is literally crawling, but there is some movement on the eastside overpass. getting word of another collision. [burke] it happened. december 14th, 2015. and we covered it. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪
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skating over the candidates, they are, but soon, we'll need the rink for our blue and red state map of the united states. we will get results on election night. i promise, but for right now, the best thing we have is polling. there's a lot of it. not all of it agrees, but we have no shortage. >> we have tons of polling. actually, depending on what kind of political junky you are, it's great or terrible news that a two days from now, we will have no more polling. handing shaking as you're talking. for efg that we've been through, oaf the course of this campaign, for everything that has changed, reversals of fortunement we're going put this up on the screen. this is how hillary clinton was viewed at the start of the campaign in january. 40% positive. you see that? he's how she is viewed now.
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october 26th. oh, look, 40% positive. 40% in january. 40% in october. now look at donald trump. start of the campaign. this is january donald trump. viewed positively by 29% of the country. now, donald trump has gone from 29% then to this is october, to 29% now. the country has not changeded. i mean, in terms of the likability, which is the basically the core view of these candidates, we haven't changed over the course of everything that has happened. and b even if you can people how they feel about the prospect of either of these candidate being elected, look at this. these numbers, as they start in february and they dpo through to october. this is would you be hopeful or sats fied if donald trump wins? 33% say yes. in october, 34% say yes. it's exactly the same for hillary clinton. would you be hopeful or satisfied? p 43 in february, 43 now.
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this campaign has riveting, but you know what, these candidates and brian has talked about the from the beginning. they were household names from the very, very beginning of this. we knew how we feel about them and we still feel exactly the same way given efg we have been through. >> i felt donald trump was first presidential candidate with 100% walking away name recognition. >> and the only other for that is hillary clinton. we knew what we thought about them before. we have had that reaffirm ed. zwl this brings us to hugh hewitt. he has a raid show that bears his name. he's here in our new york studios, back to these numbers. hacksaw ridge, the film, has come out and it's another one of those films about a pitched battle lost loss of blood and treasure over a small, ugly piece of the earth and it seems to me with all the arguing, fussing and fighting, all the words spent to rachel's point,
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her dwragraphic, what have we learned? >> the map has changed. i would say we learned that donald trump promised to shake up the map that won iowa by six point points. looks like donald trump is going to win iowa. looks like donald trump's going to win ohio and gene and i both know michigan. tas lot like pennsylvania. two deep blue dots in ann arbor and detroit and google has its big new campus there. donald trump sees an opening like he sees in pennsylvania. doesn't have coal country, which might make it a harder play, so donald trump did change the map of american electoral system. however, in some doing, the back door florida where are wr the latino vote surge is real and it's not going favorable to truch, it's not impossible that we could wake up on wednesday and he would have taken iowa and
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ohio and still lost because he lost friday. >> to leave the map out, you went to harvard for goodness sake. what's the larger message of what we have been through? >> i think it has to do with i brought up before jd vance's book, a lot of people are worried about their kid's future. they believe if you've got connection, their kids have a ladder than others don't have and peggy noon has written about this extensively, the unprotect ed in america that are not nigh norty believe strongly that donald trump is sounding their alarm b about what's happen ng the american dream. they're talking about this in the green room with steve, jim and robert. there's a lot to think through on this, but i'll dpo back to something rachel said. secretary clinton owns this comey thing because she put the sever together and just today,
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we have the cutter story, the weird maid story in the "new york post" and the doug ban e-mail to chell' about getting foundation to pay for the weddinging. it never stops, so her negatives have come back and the states have come into play because of secretary clinton. >> all of those stories are not been reported fully by nbc news, but hugh, thank you, we'll be talking to you along the way. >> rachel, all those numbers you gave us about how nothing changed from the beginning to the end, it does bring into question the charnl charnl of the power of the media because all the information we've delivered every night, every hour on the hour and it hasn't changed public opinion about basic attitude one wit. >> i think people have a lot more information b about both of these candidates. i think the you ask people a quiz on the basics, you would get different answers, but in terms of whether people like them, same answer. >> it also speaks to how settled
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this race has been for a long time. this is been a four, five, point race for many months. >> i don't think it felt like it to the clinton camp when the story broke, but it may settle back as a five-point race. >> i'll tell you wh it felt settled to. black people and latinos. >> so, i can say we'll be back right after this. >> what's in? >> where are you looking? >> who are you people? didn't know you could come in from that angle. the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier we're here to make healthier happen.
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back here from 30 rock. steve schmidt said today the latino vote if lost by trump will have been lost in the first hour of his first campaign event. chuck todd said today the latino vote as a story may be one of the huge driving themes we'll be covering in this very room on election night. steve kornacki at the big board with a look at the latino vote. >> the indications -- some of the indications at least that we're getting are obviously trump getting crushed when it comes to latino voters in the early polling so far. also may be much higher potentially latino turnout in this election. if that happens, what does it do to the electoral map? where is it most significant? obviously very significant in florida. pretty close to a must-win state
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for donald trump. very significant in nevada, arizona. it could potentially make the difference for hillary clinton in all of these states. there is a flip-side to this. if you're looking for the potential for there to be a shakeup in the map, we're getting indications that african-american turnout may not be as high as it was in 2012, 2008. enthusiasm among black voters may be down. where could that work to trump's favor? that could help him in a state like north carolina. could potentially help him in a state like ohio. talking about states that don't have as significant of a latino population where the non-white population is more of a largely black population. if the black turnout is low, could help trump. pennsylvania. let me show you quickly something inside pennsylvania. that wasn't supposed to happen. you probably notice the clinton campaign has scheduled a rally, the final night, tomorrow night. barack obama will be there, hillary clinton will be there. in philadelphia. check this out. these are the results in philadelphia four years ago. no surprise obama won it.
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what was the margin, though, out of philadelphia? it was nearly half a million votes for obama. 500,000. that speaks to the incredible black turnout that barack obama generated. when john kerry was the democratic candidate in 2004, that margin was closer to 400,000. that's a big difference. the clinton campaign, one thing they're a little concerned about are some of these indications with black enthusiasm and black turnout. this is a blue state that trump has some interest in. indications are clinton it ahead but they want to get the black turnout number as high as they can. >> very hard to be the next act in democratic politics after the first african-american president when you are talking about trying to maintain the african-american vote numbers and enthusiasm. i'll say, if you're going to watch one number in the polling between now and election day watch the national latino number. the last time the presidency was won by a republican it was george w. bush in 2004 with 44% of the vote. four years later, mccain, dropped to 31, he lost.
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romney dropped to 27, he lost. donald trump in the new poll his number down to 20%. that is a number by which you lose the presidency. that's fatal unless everything else changes a lot more than we think it's going to change. >> back with more right after this. and at progressive, we let you compare our progressive direct rate... great deals for reals! ...and our competitors' rates side-by-side, so you know you're getting a great deal. saving the moolah. [ chuckles ] as you can see, sometimes progressive isn't the lowest. not always the lowest! jamie. what are you doing? -i'm being your hype man. not right now. you said i was gonna be the hype man. no, we said we wouldn't do it. i'm sorry, we were talking about savings. i liked his way. cha-ching! talking about getting that moneeeey! talking about getting that moneeeey! savings worth the hype. now that's progressive.
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you are looking live. everybody's schedule goes late when you're within three, two, one day of the vote. mike pence working late in wyndham, new hampshire. again, the battle for new hampshire, one of those we probably couldn't have predicted in full when we got started on this. but it goes on tonight. minute and a half left in this broadcast. rachel made the point right before the break, if you're going to watch one number on election night -- and people have their favorites that
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they'll be watching -- watch the latino vote. i would take that one step further. if you're going to watch one network, does this need to be said really? that this is the family? we are america's -- we are america's dysfunctional [ laughter ] >> i say that with love in my heart. yeah. nothing but love in my heart. >> listen. i will say one thing that i like about working here at this time is that things are so freaking, um, tense. yeah. things are really intense and they're tense and people are at each other's throats. >> we reflect the nation. >> i think this is a place where we've been able to talk about this stuff and get into the meat of it without being uncivil. i wouldn't want to be anywhere else than here tomorrow and tuesday. >> i think the republicans will learn a bad lesson tuesday night you can't spot 25% of the election and win the general. they never made the phone call to mrs. king. jack kennedy did.
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the mexican-american vote could have been a great opportunity for the republican party. >> the latino vote right now -- not just the preference but if the turnout is as big as it's going to be it could change national politics forever. >> this is how much fun we're going to be on tuesday. we're just getting started. lawrence o'donnell takes over from here. lawrence. appreciate it. >> you rolled your r. >> this is a special sunday night edition of "the last word." we have a new letter from fbi director comey today about hillary clinton's e-mail. nbc's pete williams is here to translate that letter. and the most likely threat to our voting machines is not hacking. it is the old age of those voting machines. some of them are definitely going to break down. we'll tell you what to do if that happens to you on tuesday. a november surprise.

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