tv Election Night 2016 MSNBC November 8, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm PST
of becoming the president-elect of the united states. of being the commander in chief of the world's most powerful military, with its most potent nuclear arsenal. i do think we should spend just a second talking about one of the history-making aspects of tonight, which would be the execution of probably the most successful intelligence operation, since the code-breaking in the second world war. where you have a hostile foreign power intervening in an american election, trying to influence its outcome, with the wikileaks attacks, and the hacking of the democratic party and the clinton e-mails. certainly it's had an impact on the election, on her reputation. maybe an obvious question is, why are the russians so keen on having a candidate of their preference be elected? we're just in uncharted territory. i think every intelligence agency in the country, you know,
you talk to -- you listen to mike morale, i don't think there's no debate -- >> the question is their motivation. do they want to win or make us look like less a democracy than we've always seemed, to try to disrupt us. >> i don't know. >> trump has promised, one of the things he wants to do, if he won, he would like to meet with vladimir putin, now, even when barack obama is president of the united states, he wants a one-on-one donald trump-putin meeting, even while we have another president filling out the end of his term. so i'm sure that's very attractive to vladimir putin right now. >> he can't negotiate for our government. >> before we plan an inauguration, let's get an update from steve kornacki on pennsylvania. >> yeah, i think the last time i talked about this, hillary clinton had a lead. seems like a long time ago. just in the last few seconds,
donald trump has pulled within 7,000 votes statewide of hillary clinton in pennsylvania. now, show you what is still out in this state, democrats talked a lot about philadelphia. chris matthews has been talking about, getting info there. it's good. the democrats did get their margin out of philadelphia. sitting about 450, a little north of 450. that's what they needed. look in the suburbs, though. this is not what they expected. look at bucks county, donald trump doing as well as mitt romney, in fact, better than mitt romney did in this county. we talked so much about the struggles he was supposed to have. but if you look at where the vote is still to come, there's still a bit of a scattering in the philadelphia suburbs. clinton will still get some bounce from there. the biggest single source of outstanding votes in pennsylvania appears to be butler county, which is just north of pittsburgh. give you a sense. four years ago, nearly 100,000 votes were cast in this county.
they are just starting to count. donald trump, i should say, the red counties you're seeing around pittsburgh and across pennsylvania tonight, they are a lot redder than four years ago. donald trump is going to get a lot of votes here. we talk so much about scranton, this county where scranton is, it was a blow-out for barack obama, he won it by 28 points. tonight hillary clinton's winning it by three points. that's the progress donald trump has made away from philadelphia in the suburbs in this state, and that's why, let's see if we've got an update on the vote. that's why he's within 4,000 votes and closing in pennsylvania. >> overall, 89% of the vote in, in pennsylvania. watching these numbers just click up. we're up over 50% in all the outstanding states. minnesota's got just under 70% in. wisconsin, three-quarters of the vote. we're getting close, the numbers are getting tighter and tighter in terms of the percentage of
the vote that's in. maine, we still don't have a call. 68% of the vote in. hillary clinton appears to be ahead in maine, but we don't have a result there either. >> shows that the big city came through, but i heard another source, the people on the republican side have a real problem. they hold their nose on trump, but they do care about the supreme court. he was able to get people to vote for his party line, despite him. >> i heard that from john boehner a week ago. i said, what's your message as he's out there, a private citizen now. he said my message is exactly as you articulated in the same words. hold your nose and vote for him for the sake of the supreme court. it obviously resonated. >> who knows what he's going to do about the supreme court. the fact that he put out a list that he never read that somebody else gave him as his list of supreme court nominees. we'll see. >> what time is it now? midnight. the democrats fondest hope is how to figure out how to replace mitch mcconnell with chuck
schumer. what kind of an opposition leader can the democratic party fashion? it's depressing for the democratic party to say how obstructionist can we play, with a 60-vote goal to prevent them from getting anything done? the republicans may not know what they're going to do as president, but the democrats are already planning how to obstruct it. >> we don't know if that's what they're planning. we're talking about it. >> the 60-vote goal is a way to stop the other side from doing anything. >> but we don't have any intel from the democrats right now in terms of what they're hoping for. but i do think there's a different dynamic at work here than there would be in a different year's election. donald trump has proposed stuff while running for president that is unprecedented in its radicalism. he has proposed banning people from this country on the basis of their religion. >> vetting. >> a nationwide deportation force that would round up more
than ten million people in this country. >> it's horrific. >> he has proposed building a wall on the southern border. so if the democrats are thinking, what are our options, when you're talking about someone who's brought forward a policy menu, that's completely off the chart, you do start thinking about what your options are within the realm -- >> nots just democrats. the policies you mentioned are appalling. i think that's where some of the divide with paul ryan came from after the muslim ban. the mass deportation force and the muslim banning, they were not only not in line with republicans, they were unamerican. so there might be a bipartisan effort to say, whoa. >> maybe. >> but those two policies are appalling and i don't think he won because of those two policies. we had this argument ten months ago. i think he won despite those ideas. >> after he proposed the muslim
ban, nationwide polling of republican voters showed two-thirds of people were in favor of the muslim ban. >> i don't think that motivated his vote. i think it was economic despair. >> typically a candidate is elected president and we say, the other party was defeated. the reality is, if he becomes president-elect within the next couple of hours, two parties were defeated. the establishment of the republican party. >> he burned it down. >> went down in flames with the democratic party as well. the party of ronald reagan. the party of george bush, 41, george w. bush, president 43, who we worked for. the party doesn't exist anymore. and i'm not sure what the new republican party is and what it looks like, and what it assistants for and how it works with a president trump. i'm not sure what the opposition coalition looks like, from a national security perspective. i know one thing, i know that john mccain feels a deep commitment to america's security alliances around the world.
and believes profoundly that they're essential to maintaining peace in the world. so i don't know what the new coalition looks like in terms of advancing a president trump's agenda, or an opposition to it. >> that will make for an interesting dynamic. steve kornacki, you're in wisconsin right now. >> let's take a look. we were looking at a clinton lead -- excuse me, a trump lead of about 60,000. trump's lead is now closing in on 100,000 votes in wisconsin. again, this is the product largely of these rural counties, just bit by bit coming in. la crosse county by the way, still a lot of vote to come in there. donald trump with the advantage. meanwhile, more vote has come in from the two democratic bastions. this is dane county, university of wisconsin, madison, not all in yet, but think of it this way. four years ago, 300,000 votes were cast here. we are seeing higher turn-out
this year, but you can see a big chunk of the vote is now in there. also milwaukee county still vote to come in. clinton can still make up ground, but trump can too. trump is sitting on an advantage in wisconsin that is approaching 100,000 votes. i want to flag one other thing. keep this in mind, yes, we elect the president by the electoral college. we're looking at the path there. and we're tracking the popular vote. right now, it's at 50.8 million for donald trump, 49.7 for hillary clinton. there it is. it's up on the screen. donald trump over 51 million. one thing to keep in mind, the single biggest source of votes, raw popular votes that's left on the map is california. it is only starting to report right now. hillary clinton north of 60% of the vote there. she's going to get an enormous popular vote advantage. it's just a seed to plant right now as we talk about donald trump moving along this path to
270. there's sime ul taneiously a path for hillary clinton even if he doesn't get the votes -- >> this is not something that's being tracked from our election desk. just watching gary johnson's numbers and where third-party candidates conceivably might have made a difference, it appears that the third-party votes more than account for the margin of victory in trump states, including florida, in outstanding states where we don't yet have a call, including new hampshire, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania. again, we can't tell you where that third-party vote might otherwise have gone, but it looks like, particularly in florida, which is a state that we've called, that that third-party margin more than accounts for the difference between these two candidates in that state. >> can i offer a calming note on the issue of immigration, which is the hottest issue we're talking about banning people
because of their religion which is totally unconstitutional. if there's going to be a new immigration policy in this country, it's going to have people who really aren't responsible. rubio, lindsey graham, chuck schumer, it's gonna be -- of course your guy, john mccain. it's going to be people who are pro-immigration relatively and they are good people about this one issue. i think they are. so whoever left or right has to cut the deal to win, they're going to have to deal with these people. so the good thing, if you're concerned about immigration, and you want a solution, you want a true comprehensive solution, which includes some kind of restraint on illegal hiring, opportunities for people to become certainly green card people and maybe citizens. there's a route. and it only goes through those guys in the middle. so i know -- >> you think donald trump is going to sign immigration reform? >> i'm just saying if there's going to be any change in the immigration law, it's going to have to go through these guys. >> donald trump campaigned on building a wall. >> i know what he campaigned on. >> deporting millions of people,
mexican immigrants being rapists. >> you can't campaign on that. >> he has to sign the legislation. >> this debate has ended up through two presidents, it's ended up in the group of the same hands of senators. the late kennedy was in the middle. and john mccain and george w. bush, it was sabotaged by republicans. but you're right, law making is very difficult than running the campaign he ran. people are really scared. >> most of campaigning is bs, let's be honest about it. it's saying stuff to get votes. when he gets to the presidency, if he's the winner, he has to succeed as president. the only way you succeed as president is to pass law that you can sign. >> right. >> and what you described has a 63% approval rating with the public. >> what lesson did the republican party just teach itself about the politics of immigration reform? i mean, in the primary, was there any more -- was there any
worse vulnerability for any republican running for office than having been soft on immigration reform? right? and then the guy they picked was not a guy who was a hard-liner on immigration, he's the build-the-wall guy. they're not looking at this, saying, we really got to deal with this immigration issue. they went harder and harder and harder line on this, and the people who went the hardest line got the biggest rerewards. and that's not a recipe for constructive policy making on that issue. it's not a recipe for any sort of policy making on anything that's going to involve any of the centrists that you're talking about. >> but for sure, we're not going to have a big wall with a terrific door for the good ones to come through, any more than the dinosaurs are coming back to life. it's not happening. >> we made a decision here in country, we're in the process of making a decision that a lot of people thought was totally impossible. take the guy at his word.
>> i'm taking the position, we will not only endure, we'll prevail. we will make it even with trump if it comes to that. >> take the guy at his word. >> guantanamo is still there. >> let's go out to nevada, where harry reid is vacating his senate seat. and where the democrats had the chance to have the first latina woman in the u.s. senate, and they appear to have done so. it was tight all the way. joe heck, his fortunes kind of rose and fell and tonight they fell just enough for the democrats to hold a net hold of this seat. we're going to take a break. we'll have more of our live coverage when we come back.
space inside the javits convention center, named for the late great republican senator, there in the middle of the united states is the lectern where we will hear eventually, one would assume, hear from hillary clinton. the crowd came in very jazzed up, high energy. we saw the overflow room, and then as the first projections came in, the mood started to sour and then darken. and there have been sporadic pictures of people in the crowd in tears, embracing each other. that sort of thing. steve kornacki is at the board with new numbers out of the state of pennsylvania. >> told you a few minutes ago, donald trump was closing in on the lead in pennsylvania. donald trump now has the lead in pennsylvania. he's moved ahead by a thousand votes. the reason we told you, the biggest source of outstanding votes left on the map in pennsylvania was right here in
butler county, a republican bastion that donald trump has made more republican. donald trump with a lopsided t victory there. a couple of other things going on on the map. more vote coming in still from philadelphia. chris matthews is right. they really got the job done there, the democratic machine now 453,000, still maybe more to come out of there. there are still votes in the philadelphia suburbs. two pieces of bad news for democrats. number one, that doesn't necessarily mean they're votes for hillary clinton. this looks like it's just changed. we have it red. trump and clinton have been going back and forth in bucks county. the thought for democrats was that they would be comfortably ahead in the suburbs. you see one piece of gray here, there's one county in the state of pennsylvania yet to report, lebanon county. you'll get 60,000 votes out of here, mitt romney won this 2-1 in 2012. so donald trump right now, the biggest source of votes left on
this map belongs to donald trump, but there still are scattered votes coming in. you can see trump's lead sits at about 2,400 over hillary clinton now in pennsylvania. >> steve kornacki, you are not making projections from the wall, but it sounds like you can see where pennsylvania's going to end from where you stand. >> there's also some question, do we have absentee ballots, if it gets really close. if you have something that's really close, you could say an apparent winner or something. at this point, though, trump has taken the lead. that's what i'll say for right now. >> all right, steve. the states we are watching that are still outstanding at this point, pennsylvania, michigan, nevada, new hampshire, maine. that's all that's left on the board. neither of these candidates has made it to 270. trump is significantly closer and he's within a state or two. >> this is the time of night we often call in michael beschloss, presidential historian, author, and a frequent contributor to
us. michael, we've had wave elections. we've had trend elections. we've had status quo elections. what in your personal scope of history are you comparing the possibility of tonight to? >> sure looks like a wave election where there's a trend through all these states. and one thing, brian, you know, we've talked about all sorts of reasons why the donald trump surge happened tonight. one of them is, i've been thinking about it all evening. you know, two years ago, exactly this month, president obama made a little noticed comment. he was talking about 2016 and who might succeed him. and he said, you know it may be impossible for me to pass along this job to a democratic successor, he said. the people may want that new car smell. that was the term he used. and i don't think he was thinking about this. but if you look through american
history and go back through 200 years, it's extremely rare that one political party controls the white house for three terms in a row. 1836, jackson was able to pass the white house on to his vice president, martin van buren. the next time that happened, you have to go all the way up to 1988, when ronald reagan was able to do that for george h.w. bush. even, for instance, in 1960 when dwight eisenhower, a very popular president, tried to leave the presidency to richard nixon. couldn't do it. bill clinton, whose popularity had rerebounded by 2000, tried to do it for al gore. couldn't do it to such extent that gore was able to escape the fate of the recount in a supreme court ruling. the democrats lost the white house. so i think as we think about all the reasons why this happened tonight. it's not reason number one, it's not reason number two, but on that list is the fact that
structurally, it was very hard for president obama and the democrats to retain the white house for another term and hand it along to his preferred successor. >> here to for, to ask a structural question, they have been members of the party apparatus. this is different because this is someone, as we've established over months, who kind of burned down the house of the party establishment. >> right. >> plowed through all of his competition, and every contest during the primaries. >> and wears that as a badge of honor, as we've said many times. this will be, if donald trump is elected tonight, this will be the first president that we've ever had with zero military experience, zero public service experience, and also probably the smallest relationship with the leaders of his party of any president that i can think of. >> yeah, it's hard to think of a
sitting office holder who would be jeff sessions in the senate, chris christie the governor for another year of the state of new jersey. it's difficult when you look at allies, people he could hit the ground working with. >> and not only that, if you're thinking of things that we've never seen before, the talk both from mr. trump and the people around him, that he may undermine the sitting republican speaker of the house, paul ryan, and try to look for someone else and throw ryan out. >> michael, on that point, i was just about to ask you about that. are there historical allegories to that sort of thing? there has been so much drama over the years, have to believe something like that has happened before, but i don't know about it. has it happened before? >> i can't think of a case where a new president has come in and said, we've got a speaker of my own party, even though i may not like him, i'm going to work with him. that's usually what you hear. i can't think of a case where a new ppt said, concurrent with my
inauguration, i'm going to commit a coup d'etat against the speaker of the house. >> i take such comfort when i think something is unprecedented. and i think you're going to tell me it happened in the 1880s and everything was fine. >> sorry, can't find any reassurance on that one. >> oh, great. michael beschloss, a comfort to have you here. >> thank you. >> i want to also bring back into our conversation now, the good and great chris hayes, who's been at the news desk for us tonight. chris, what do you got? >> so we've been following some of the first kind of reverberations of what appears to possibly be -- obviously it's not been called at this point, but the markets beginning to price in the possibility of a donald trump presidency. the dow is down 800. here's an interesting data point. nasdaq and the s&p 500 have halted trading on the futures market until the opening of equities market tomorrow because they hit the 5% loss break,
which is an automatic emergency break that happens when crashes happen. so that trading has been halted. that gives you a sense of how global financial markets are most likely going to respond if it is the case that donald trump pulls out a victory tonight and is declared the president of the united states tomorrow when those markets open. the canadian immigration website, this is not like some joke, it actually is crashed, from apparently people's interest there. so we're just now again beginning to see how some of this is going to reverberate out across the world. there will be a lot more of that if this night continues in its current tragedjectory. >> and just to be clear, it's the nasdaq and the s&p 500, they have halted trading in futures because they've triggered the crash warning basically. >> that's right. all those markets trade during the day, during business hours.
there's a futures market during off-business hours. if things are moving, people will try to get ahead of that for tomorrow. those future markets hit their essentially bottom, their automatic brake switch. they've opened back up for trading, so we'll continue to monitor those. >> the dow futures are down over 750, chris hayes, thank you. >> while a lot has happened, we're watching a lot yet to happen. we'll fit a break in here, our live coverage continues right after this.
sthmpt >> we are back and we wanted to stake stock of the states that have yet to be called. pennsylvania, and its 20 electoral votes still too close to call. michigan is on that list, as is arizona. still too close to call. upper midwest includes wisconsin we just had a projection. this is a call, interrupting our list. hillary clinton is the projected winner in nevada, with its six electoral votes. here is where that leaves us, 244-215, trump over clinton.
and here's what the map looks like with the pickup of nevada for the clinton campaign. you see the coastal argument people have been making. it's pretty hard to deny that we are a coastal blue country. steve kornacki has been looking at the state of pennsylvania, the path to 270. you name it, he's got it. >> let's take a look in pennsylvania right now, in terms of -- that's the wrong thing. let's try to get pennsylvania up here. i'm sorry. this thing is about to collapse, i think. let's see if we can get in pennsylvania. >> come on, pennsylvania! >> come on! >> see, there it is. >> got everything but the results. let's see if those come up. oh, for god sake. can you come back to me in a minute? >> yeah. >> unbelievable. >> we have six states outstanding. pennsylvania, michigan,
wisconsin, we've got new hampshire and maine in the northeast, and then we've got arizona in the southwest. so six states outstanding all together with nevada now off the map and in the democratic side. what was that for, chris? >> i'm just amazed at the ethnic break-out of the country the way it's going. what's going on, it's not a pretty picture. >> no, its not pretty at all. >> when you get a tremendous black vote out of the city of philly and you ththen you have counterpunch. it's a pattern. >> you had very robust turn-out among latinos, african americans, who came out, who delivered the votes, but there was a much bigger turn-out from those rural areas, from the small towns, from not just the rust belt, actually. it's beyond the rust belt. so i don't know, there's
obviously a racial divide. there's a urban area versus -- small town or rural area divide. there are lots of ways to split this up, and we're going to, you know, spend a lot of time figuring it out. >> it's not the usual result in american history. center left and center right party. sort of splitting somewhere in the middle. this is a different kind of division. >> it is. >> it's troubling. >> in some ways, it's, you know, the america of yesterday versus the america of tomorrow. the america of yesterday appears to be winning tonight. the america of tomorrow, the america of our demographic future, the america that's more cosmopolitan, more connected with the globalized economy, that's doing better from it, seems on the verge of losing. >> at this point, we don't have -- we don't have the final result. we don't have the final
demographic splits, and we don't know how the country is going to evolve in the future. i don't think we can say that all the people who gave donald trump majority are going to be dead in ten years. >> not at all. >> it's not a waning demographic. i don't think that the country is shifting away from the groups that are giving them these majority. if they were, he wouldn't be winning in such big majorities. right now he's put together a list of wins that is impressive by any republican standard. he hasn't taken any deep blue democratic states. he's just taken every state that was within reach. >> the sorting out that's been going on in american life is really advancing, where you have big cities which are overwhelmingly liberal, progressive, black and white and brown, liberals. then you go right outside and you find another part of the country which is just the opposite. this is a divided country. >> right. >> i would just like to point out how badly everyone in washington, d.c. has been disconnected from all of this. because i gotta tell you, it's
not just democrat, shock, surprise, stunned, probably saddened by this. it's also all of the republicans who worked for the 16 other people who ran for president who i was talking to, and they were waiting for donald trump to lose so they could move on to the next thing. i just got off the phone with senator lindsey graham, who is one of those people who ran against donald trump and who called some of his comments unamerican, he didn't vote for him and now he's saying, if donald trump is the winner, he's going to be my president, i'm going to have to try to find consensus. he says he will work with donald trump to try to repeal obamacare, do some of the other republican priorities. he says that he will not and the quote is, when it comes to being a friend to putin, count me out. so some early indications from graham that he wants to be a little bit of a thorn in the side. he also said, for example, that deporting 11 million people who are already here in an undocumented status isn't
something that could pass the senate. that's a policy that trump has put forward, but i think you're starting to see people in washington grapple with this idea of donald trump being in charge, that just seemed completely like it was from another planet, even four hours ago. >> well, it is. to the people in washington, it is from another planet. they've never seen anything like donald trump and it will be an amazing thing to watch as he comes to washington, if need he does come to washington. we don't know yet that he will. but if he does, that's going to be an incredible thing. i do think, we shouldn't afet ve avert our eyes from the fact that this big vote for trump, this is not a rainbow coalition out there voting for trump. it's just not. you look at where the votes are coming from, and you look at who lives in these areas. they're overwhelmingly white areas of the country. and he did not expand his appeal to encompass people of color.
>> i spent four months on the road with bernie sanders, and that should have also been another earlier indicator to the clinton campaign of just how wrong they may have had some of those things. and those crowds often overwhelmingly white as well. overwhelmingly -- i came away from that feeling, and ideologically very different, obviously, but bernie sanders and donald trump in many ways had more in common with each other, and hillary clinton and paul ryan have more in common with each other than those respective party labels. >> doris kearns goodwin has been listening to the coverage, keeping one eye on her television. hey, doris? >> not sure what i'm listening to -- >> oh, boy. that's a necessary evil for all of us. >> in this moment, let me correct something i said wrong. i said there were six states outstanding. i forgot minnesota. to my many friends in smint
minnesota, i'm sorry. they're also outstanding and leading to the cluster of the country where we don't yet have an answer. minnesota, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, all outstanding, as well as new hampshire and maine in the northeast and arizona in the southwest. seven states outstanding. >> steve has wrestled his technology to the ground. >> it's going to probably turn on me again in the next few minutes. but big development in pennsylvania. donald trump's lead just jumped up in the last minute. he now leads hillary clinton in pennsylvania, look at this, by 26,000 votes. we said this has been the white whale for republicans, every republican canndidate says they can flip it. can trump hold on to that? again, still a little bit, a scattering of precincts in philadelphia county and a couple of the suburbs, so there could be more clinton vote coming out of here. you still have precincts here.
this is where harrisburg is and hershey. but that is countered by this one. lebanon county, produced 60,000 votes for years ago, it's a 2-1 romney county. we don't have a single vote in from here yet. so donald trump stands to pick up ground from there. hgs lead, 26,000 votes in pennsylvania. >> wow, zero vote in that from one county. do we know why? >> there's a lot of good movies just qcoming out. >> that's true. nice day for a late walk. >> well, i suppose we'll get a huge parcel of votes out of lebanon county, p.a. at some point. >> we don't have a lot of reporting on the sources of the delays from these states in terms of why we don't have vote that we don't have. nobody is less than 50% out at this point. arizona, 65% of the vote is in. in maine, 76% of the vote is in. that's still considered too close to call. hillary clinton appears to be leading in maine.
so it's four electoral votes. arizona, 11. new hampshire, 4 electoral votes. the bigger ones, the double-digits, minnesota, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvani pennsylvania, with pennsylvania being the biggest one there. >> you look at the map with the exception of arizona, longitudinally -- >> got it. >> i cheated myself on a syllable that first time. you could make an argument that it's all up there in the same area. let's take a break, see if we can get any finer reporting on either headquarters. the map has not changed since our call of nevada for hillary clinton. there is trump headquarters. sixth avenue, new york city, the new york hilton hotel. across town, a different picture at the javits center, clinton headquarters. we're back with more right after this.
had guessed that would be a central part of what they expected to be a victory speech tonight, as we mentioned, there was a plan that leaked for victory night fireworks over the hudson river on manhattan's west side. those were canceled before they occurred. kristen welker is there for us. what have you been able to gather there? >> brian, the mood is somber here inside the javits center. a number of supporters have left in tears. i've been walking around. people have stunned expressions on their faces. one person described it as grief setting in. now of course this race is not over yet, but these supporters are just shocked by what they are seeing. one of secretary clinton's supporters and volunteers joining me right now. she is cuban, born in puerto rico. lived in new york, recently moved but you just came back so you could vote and volunteer for secretary clintons. your reaction now as you wait
these returns? >> i came here today to cast my vote and to celebrate to make history and to break the ceiling. all i want to do right now is just go underground. that's all i want to do. i'm sad, i'm disappointed. and i know it's not over yet, but it really feels like it's almost over. >> there were so many issues that were voting for and that's why you voted for secretary clinton. what are your concerns if donald trump does, in fact, win tonight? what's your top concern? >> one of the biggest concerns is that i'm a two-time breast cancer survivor, and i know what it's like not to have access to a doctor, or to suffer from pain. and considering what's going to go on with the deductibles and the rise in the deductibles, i'm afraid that people are actually going to be without access to health care and that their numbers are going to rise and it's going to get worse in this country. >> anabel, thanks so much for sharing your perspective with
us. this crowd continues to watch these returns, but, again, brian, it is quiet here tonight. shocked, stunned disbelief as they watch these returns come in. this was not the celebration they were anticipating. they thought they were here to make history and it's not turning out that way. >> soon we'll get reporting as to what's been going on. clinton headquarters in brooklyn, the kind of traveling clinton headquarters in manhattan where this was obviously supposed to be a celebration with the former president and extended family. steve kornacki is at the board. steve, do you have any new math? >> we do. pennsylvania, we've been monitoring this. donald trump's lead has grown. why? we said one county was outstanding. that county -- let's get it here. that county has now come in. lebanon county. donald trump adding 20,000 votes to his lead. a scattering of precincts, maybe
some absentees around the state, but donald trump with a 35,000 vote-lead in pennsylvania. if we zoom out, that bottom line question here, if hillary clinton is trying to get to 270 electoral votes at this hour, how could she do it? she would need a couple of things here. first of all, if she somehow got a win in pennsylvania, that would be a -- she would get 20 electoral votes. if she could get michigan, she trails in michigan right now, that would be 16. 36 to 215, sitting at 251. if he could pick up minnesota, 10 there, she'd be at 261. then wisconsin, the problem, she's trailing in wisconsin. she continues to trail, but if she were to pick up wisconsin, that's 271. that kinda looks like the most viable path, maybe the only viable path here. and i'm not even sure how viable it is. we just showed you, she's 35,000 votes behind in pennsylvania. she's behind in all these states
right now. you look in michigan right now, she's running 42,000 votes behind donald trump. there's still vote to come out of wayne county. also vote coming out of the republican area. she's 90,000 votes behind out there. she'd have to find a way to string all three of those states together. pretty much her path right now. arizona is not looking good right now from the clinton standpoint. >> in terms of those states that we have out, we have alaska comi coming at the top of the next hour. that is the state that has yet to close. the only state where polls are still open in the country. at this point, the trump campaign is just waiting, basically for the numbers to fall in place. but we're not -- in terms of anything outstanding right now, there's not really a potential for a surprise here, at this point, is there? >> a lot of democrats, certainly online i see, are talking about arizona. you look at 11 electoral votes. the reality in arizona, two counties are the story of the state. one where phoenix is, one where
tucson is. it's not what democrats need. they've tightened the margin from 2012, trump is leading by three points. maricopa county here, bottom line, romney won it by a bigger spread, but trump is still winning it. it's the biggest county in the state. donald trump even by winning with a narrow margin, it's almost 40,000 votes, his lead there. you see, what's the clinton margin here in the second biggest county. it's just over 40,000 votes. this is an improvement for democrats from four years ago. it's why it was a fringe target for them. but it's not enough. when maricopa and tucson are cancelling each other out. then you see a lot of areas around the rest of the state are trump areas. so it's not looking good for clinton. i can also tell you, we have now called it, this second congressional district up here in maine, a rural one, donald trump is out to a pretty sizeable lead in that district. again, stressing we haven't called it. also you wouldn't know it from
looking at this map, there's one congressional district in omaha, nebraska gives it out by congressional district. that's been close. the trump lead in that district sits at 5,000 votes. so if there were some scenario where clinton could pick off that district, but she's running into a hurdle in omaha and rural maine as with will. -- as well. so if there's a path for hillary clinton, it's a rust belt miracle. got to win all three of them. >> steve, thank you. the number of numbers that steve's able to keep in his head while he goes through this thing is stunning. i keep flashing back to my conversation a week ago, i guess it was with bill weld, with the former massachusetts republican governor running as the vice presidential nominee of the libertarian party.
he gave just a litany of criticism against donald trump and then he said he was there to vouch for hillary clinton. and he said he would not say that he was dropping out of the race. he would not say that people should not vote for the libertarian ticket, but that if they had a choice, people had a choice between trump and clinton, he could not have been more emphatic in terms of his preference for clinton. but it matters who you vote for. not just how you feel. and in all of these states where we are seeing the johnson number be larger than -- significantly larger than the margin between these two candidates. what they were asking for was an anti-trump vote, but they weren't willing to cast it for clinton. that's what they needed to say. to the extent that the anti-trump vote was a gary johnson vote, that may have made trump president.
>> the story we' >> doris kearns goodwin joins us from boston, mass, author and president yag historian. doris, what are we witnessing? >> i suspect that the intensity of the feeling for mr. trump outweighed our normal predictions that a ground game mattered, that somehow this entire race, we have underestimated the feelings of the people who felt the political system had let them down over this period of time. but i think the more worrisome thing for america, it's so close, america, this election, that whoever is going to be the leader, whether it be trump or hillary pulls it out, is going to have a really hard time leading in a polarized -- the last thing we needed as a polarized nation was to have a polarized election where there may be recounts, where people will wonder if it went the right way, where people will wonder if the third-party undid it, we need some direction to go forward in a certain way. what worries me most, we worry about both these people as leaders. people don't trust either one of them and we're in a state in our
country where we need somebody to make us believe in the public system again and this election is unlikely to do that. even if people are unhappy about trump, he's going to have a really hard time. the one thing that's good, people have voted and come out in ways that we might not have thought they would. i don't know whether they'll feel that sense that their vote mattered. they should. every individual vote is showing it matters roight now. >> we had a conversation a couple weeks ago in a different context, about historical parallels, for what we are looking at this year, and for the kinds of choice the countr had to make. we are still absorbing and we don't have a call in the presidential race and in a number of states. anything is possible, but it's looking like donald trump is likely to be the winner at the end of tonight. i wonder, now that we are on that precipice, if you feel like there is anything in history
that can give us a guide to understanding a character like donald trump as a president of the united states. if there's any parallels you see to any historical figures in all your scholarship? >> i'm not sure there's a parallel to an historical figure. but i do think there's a parallel to an historical time for sure. when you look at the feelings that the people had in the industrial revolution at the turn of the 20th century, they felt the country was changing in ways they were frightened out. people were moving from farms to cities. there were monop well is talis r and the pace of life was speeding up. there was populism then. there were demagogs there. the republicans carried it through and teddy roosevelt was able to channel a lot of that anxiety into positive action so the country moved forward. i think now you have the feeling that the country is changing beyond the waves a lot of people feel. you have immigrants coming in. there's a sense that cities have overtaken rural areas and that
cultural decide and that sense of inequality, same as we had at the turn of the 20th century. that feeling is against modernity, it's against change. again whether he's wins or not, he's come really close to having captured that. the question is, what do you do with that? do you channel it in a positive direction? you can't go backward. this is our country. it's a good thing that it's becoming more diverse. how are you going to make people feel that sense of fellow again, rather than one class versus another. teddy roosevelt said a democracy depends on people feeling a sense that they're all in it together. and that's what america has always been so strong about, a diverse nation. if we're feeling that we've cut each other off now, it's a scary time in that sense. so my hope is that somehow leaders stand up to it, and we need leadership now more than ever. >> doris, you write beautifully about the roosevelts and about the kennedys. let's talk about them, the democrats. back when bobby was killed,
daniel pat ring wrote a letter to ted kennedy, and said, we've turned away from the white working class. we've left them. they're our people. and i watched many time the pictures of the bobby kennedy train going through new jersey, and the white dirty faces of the white working class, saluting the train as it went by, that white working class that probably, i think of them as the guys rooting for the vikings and green bay, tough big guys, used to be democrats, parents certainly were. how the democrats get them back. because if they don't get them back, they're out there, they voted for trump. they're angry. they feel like they've been discarded by the democratic party. do you agree abowith that? do you think they were discarded? i don't think helping minorities meant to exclude those people and discard them, but they feel discarded and they voted for trump. >> the interesting thing, you're right about bobby kennedy, he was able to win the minority vote and the white working class vote and go through indiana and
bring those two together. but i'm not sure it's so much that the democratic party has discarded them, certainly not in policy terms have they discarded them. but i think we'll see what's happening, whether they ever come back to the democratic party, that's the challenge, that's for sure. >> the best in the business, our friend we're now arrived at the 1:00 a.m. mark here on the east coast and that means the polls have closed in the state of alaska. we have this to say about alaska and that is that it is too early to call between clinton and trump. let us, however, look again at the electoral vote totals. here our bar graph on the side of the building now stands as