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tv   Election Night 2016  MSNBC  November 8, 2016 10:00pm-11:01pm PST

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but i'm not sure it's so much that the democratic party has discarded them, certainly not in policy terms have they discarded them. but i think we'll see what's happening, whether they ever come back to the democratic party, that's the challenge, that's for sure. >> the best in the business, our friend we're now arrived at the 1:00 a.m. mark here on the east coast and that means the polls have closed in the state of alaska. we have this to say about alaska and that is that it is too early to call between clinton and trump. let us, however, look again at the electoral vote totals. here our bar graph on the side of the building now stands as we have chronicled all night, 244,
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trump, 215, clinton. in the balance is the red and blue. and this national map that we have been staring at all evening going back and forth starting in the east and going to the west with the time zones. still outstanding, the states in gray, which we will now display. the states that are too close to call. pennsylvania, too close to call. separated by 46,000 and change. michigan, the difference of about 60,000 votes, too close to call. arizona, out in the desert southwest. around 60,000 vote difference. wisconsin, the dairy belt, 84,225 with 87% in. minnesota, with just about 80% of the vote in. and finally, new hampshire. too close to call.
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82%, look at the difference. >> you think your vote doesn't matter? >> 96 votes between the two of them. >> finally, i almost forgot the great state of maine which has been a pitched battle all night with 81% of the vote in. 17,000 votes separate, four split electoral votes from maine. and that is where we have it at 1:00 a.m. eastern time. >> the polls are closed throughout the country. h this is it. we keep going west, but turns out -- that is where we are. >> you see the map there of those seven states? five, the big ones are leading -- trump is leading, the two little ones, maine and new hampshire is leading. it doesn't look good for hillary clinton right now. >> steve said it would have to be a rust belt miracle, hard to pull off, hard to imagine. we'll wait here and be here until we know.
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steve schmidt what are you thinking right now? >> i agree with chris, i think it's looking very, very dim for secretary clinton right now. it's almost impossible to see how you pull that comeback in all of those states. it's not like she needs one. she has to overcome big deficits in all of those states. so you know, i think the hour is drawing close. where donald j. trump will be the president-elect of the united states. >> beside donald trump and maybe kellyanne conway and differenru giuliani, who is going to be able to say i made the call? >> joe scarborough, they have seen the phenomenon from the beginning. >> yeah, go ahead, steve? >> yeah, no, i mean, look, i couldn't have been more wrong
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about this. i said she was going to be at 323 to 340 electoral votes. i thought it has been over for weeks. you called it right in the primary. but you know early on -- but i get what you're seeing here is just such a backlash in the country against the establishment of the country. a business establishment. a political establishment. a media establishment across the board. and it's -- really it's the collapse of trust in institutions that fuelled the brexit vote. and it fuelled this vote. steve bannon was right when he talked about the similarities between brexit, about a rising populism, and this phenomenon is playing out in all the democracies. and this significant election, they say in france, that she can't win, at a 40% ceiling.
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we'll see. but this phenomenon is not going what any time soon. >> i think part of it may well be that secretary clinton, the fact that she wouldn't be president didn't scare people into voting for her. but there was a sense with maybe bernie sanders, we have to get him president, we're passionate with him. with hillary, they said i'm not really worried about having her as president. there was not a big stake in her. >> peggy noonan wrote about the prote protected class and unprotected. >> and to people, their main goal to get their kids into sidwell friends, that is their main goal. >> and you talk about disconnection, and it's happening here and in europe. and peggy noonan was onto this divide. and whether you predicted the outcome or not -- >> did she vote for trump?
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>> i don't know. >> but you know, steve, when you talked about marie lapen, in france it's seen as a pseudo-fascist movement. her father was almost on the criminal edge in france in terms of hate speech, and inciting violence. marie is a similar version of her father. do you think it's fair to put trumpism along the same number line as far as the british far right, you kept it so in favor of brexit, like the british union fascist. >> lafarge was at the convention, he was here campaigning for trump. >> he went to a battleground state. >> all of our lives, i talked
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about this the other night. politics has been divided by a vertical line down the 50 yard line. we debate between the 45 yard lines right/left, right? we have overheated debates about the difference between justice and injustice, up 39% tax bracket or a 35% tax bracket. but politics now, the line is a lateral line. the people above the line are people benefitting from the technical revolution, and globalization, and people left behind below the line. the seismic generalization, a left over from the financial crisis, 15 million people lost their homes, the banks got bailouts in the millions, and no one went to jail. you can move back and forth between the donald trump camp
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and the bernie sanders camp, and what is increasingly going to define politics is that over/under line. and you're seeing that really play out in this election cycle. with alert -- long-term implications for both parties. >> and for the idea of political normalcy, the reason he was able to be seen as somebody who would shake up the status quo is that he would say stuff that was politically outrageous, because it was so outside the lines. the remark to ban muslims, it was so outside the line. that put him as outside the norm. >> maybe the smartest thing that anyone said in this campaign was celine azito, the columnist for
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the tribune. she said the regular people take him seriously, but not literally. it just profoundly was true. >> you know, in hollywood they call it below the line. so if you're a name brand, you have a contract and good agent, you're above the line, a big shot. the below the line people. so in hollywood, they portrayed the below the line people as archy bunker, he was a below the line figure, they made fun of him. a lot of them said you have been making fun of us, we're going to vote against you. >> i hope it is better polling than it has been so far. i would like to get poll ststern here and tar and feather them. get them in here. >> there is going to be tarring and feathering. >> let's talk about the prize in this after all is 1600 pennsylvania avenue. correspondent ron allen is there, where some people have gathered in what looks to be
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lafayette park across the street, ron? >> reporter: yeah, brian, we're out here right in front of the white house over there. and you can see where the fencing is put up. they're reviewing the inaugural stage. this is billed as an anti-trump rally, there are people for and against trump. i think the guys up there in the tree are people who may be supporting trump. others are watching this as we are, stunned, frankly. here is a couple of folks i met earlier. college students from georgetown. you voted for hillary, how do you think it is playing out? >> we still hope for something better, definitely worried about the possibility of trump being elected. >> have you given up hope? do you think there is still a
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chance? >> what is concerning to me, a main sentiment of hillary is going to win, all the polls, so there was like this flowing of information very inaccurate. and sort of shows how exaggerated voter turnout, a lot of people came forward who were sort of not saying they were voting for trump, who were like oh, you know. >> but you don't think it was this whole idea that people just don't trust hillary clinton and there was that? >> i don't think so, but if you look at even from today, five hours ago, "the new york times" polling, hillary clinton was winning. and in a matter of hours it watts just turned on its head, due to the stigma, those who said they were not voting for trump and then came out into there were a lot of pollsters who were very wrong, but again, not over yet. what do you think went wrong for secretary clinton explosi?
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>> i think a lot of the blame can go to the dnc, for not giving bernie a chance, and a lot of the early voting, for the election -- >> thank you very much. a huge crowd out here, very peaceful. people on both sides of the vigil, as we wait to see what happens as it all plays out. >> really interesting responses. the young man who talked about "the new york times" index, which so many especially elites on the coast have been following did flip, exactly. flipped right over. >> around 9:20 p.m. >> i'm looking at this politico headline that said how did everybody get it so wrong? which will be a question that takes care of a lot of people's nervous energy. wouldn't change the result, but it will be fun. >> see the back drop to the
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interviews that ron was just doing. the obama family, i don't know if they're home tonight. but if you're michelle obama, and the kids, and obama, and you have the lame duck period coming up, and you thought about what you never would have to think about in terms of the future of the democratic party and in terms of the legacy of being the first african-american president, and what happened, more than anything i sort of want to hear from president obama, right now i don't know when that will be proper or -- we've never had in the modern era, a two-term popular president campaign, for a successor that would lose, i certainly want to hear from him more than anybody. >> or joe biden, who has to be wondering what might have been. he is sort of the one -- we've
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talked so much and spent so much time covering. michelle obama, president obama, and -- >> bernie sanders, elizabeth warren. >> but nobody on her bench spoke to the mood of the country or her deficit with voters like joe biden. and mike was out on sunday and wrote an extraordinary east in the daily beast, his day on the trail and the relationship with his agents and he sort of speaks street talk. he speaks working class voter, and speaks to all of the folks would have put all of the states that they have been showing us tonight over the line for trump. so i think there may be -- i think the obamas are probably having this conversation, but i bet the bidens are having them, too. >> but you know he knows it. without quoting him off the record he gets it and surrounded by people who don't get it. and he will talk to you about how he gets it. and what they did wrong.
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>> steve kornacki, did they carry scranton? >> the answer is no, the margin is three for the democrats, almost 30 points four years ago we can tell you pretty much you're looking at the results from pennsylvania. there are still scatters on here, look at this margin for donald trump, this crept up. now north of 50,000 votes. it is tough to see. very tough to see a 50,000 vote deficit being made up by anyone with what is left on here. we said pretty much right here, hillary clinton to get to 270, for all intents and purposes she has to find a way to win pennsylvania, she has to find a way to win michigan, check it out, donald trump's lead right now, sitting just over 70,000, the good news for democrats, there is a shot left for hillary clinton, a lot of votes in wayne county, she could still net a significant share of the vote
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there. still some in macomb there, a big blue collar county that donald trump is winning. clinton has a shot at michigan, look at the news, in wisconsin, 1984, last time a republican carried the state, donald trump's margin is sitting at 85,000 votes. there are -- yep. the two big ones left for democrats -- >> there is a problem with your board, they say we can't touch it until we fix the bug. that is the problem they wanted me to tell you, step whaway fro the board. >> i thought they were going to shoot the board. poor board, poor steve.
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and we're going to take a break because that is what people do in this situation. 1:16 a.m., a lot still to cover. a very, very moving situation -- moveable target here. let's put it that way. there is your political nation. super imposed outside our building. >> eight states still grayed out.
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the race to 270 is what we're calling it. donald trump is at 244. he needs 26 more projected electoral votes. it is a much harder climb, not just the map. but the physics of it for hillary clinton. 251, 55 more needed. you have to look long and hard to see anyone who predicted this type of outcome at this hour for tonight. 1:21 a.m., the states in gray have not been projected. but you see the colors of our
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nation there on the map, eight states not called as we have been saying as our coverage has continued on through the night. lawrence o'donnell is with his insider guests in his studio, lawrence? >> we have been discussing this issue of the polls, and the pollsters are going to get savaged. but all of the polls have the this within the margin of error. hillary clinton's national lead was within a margin of error. all of them within the three points. >> yeah, they essentially got them right and essentially figured out what the landscape would look like. but there were still elements of this race that still popped up particularly in some of the states where you are looking and going look at the over-performance of the white vote in certain parts of the state. in talking to people and calling around, essentially what
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happened, the reagan democrats came back through trump and that made the difference. >> and everybody said that republican women were going to pull to hillary, they clearly did not. part of me wonders, what was the comey effect, because she had them of course so what happened? right now i'm getting e-mails from folks, everybody is really worried about the community, the muslim-american community, and the latino community. and if trump becomes the president -- >> people who feel threatened, what are they feeling tonight? >> los angeles county has had a 24% increase for hate crimes since the candidacy was announced. this is the bastion of liberalism. in the community where i went to school, i got spray-painted. moms had had to tell kids who were 5 years old, what happened.
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if trump wins, he has to turn down the temperature that makes people feel inclusive. and he has to act presidential. >> is there a version of this in which donald trump sees he has won, if had he has won. and he doesn't in the next speech have to try to win votes by being inflammatory. that is not part of his next speech if he has one. is there anyone there and is there a part of donald trump that could hear the advice of now is the time to not -- to do everything you can to not sound threatening to anyone? >> i think there is, and i think this is where if this thing plays out with one state to go, this is where kellyanne conway in his ear will be very, very important. because the first most important thing you do when you're running
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for president is to select your vice presidential. the second thing you do when you win is address the nation, because that gives clues not only policy or any of that stuff, but how you want to bring people together and have people realize okay, this vote was worth it. i think he can do that. i hope he can do that. he needs to do that. >> well, he needs to do that, all of a sudden people are going to have sticker shock, oh shoot, what happened? not only are we giving him the house, the supreme court. >> and the moment of a chance of what does the president-elect trump say in the face of the chants of "lock her up?" >> so many questions at 1:25 a.m., so many questions we don't know yet. steve kornacki has come to an
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understanding with his technology. they have reached a working agreement. are you all right? >> well, let's see if he can hold up his end of the bargain. >> exit polls we talked about it a lot. the split among white voters. college. non-college, we said the early exit polls we showed you may change. they did a little bit. donald trump did better than we initially told you he did. he wins by four points. now, this is down from romney by 14, i have to say this is a lot better than people thought donald trump was going to do with white voters with a college degree. they returned to the republican fold in the stretch of this campaign, the other thing, non-college whites is 39. 26 four years ago. here is the other thing raising eyebr eyebrows. we kept an eye on the latino e vote. now we can tell you this.
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clinton wins 65-29 tonight. four years ago, the margin was obama 71, romney 27, that was a 44-point spread. tonight, you're seeing it only 36 points. it actually has gone down in four years. republicans did 18 points better with latino voters than mitt romney did in 2008. and some said the number would go down in the teens, according to the exit polls, donald trump loses by eight points less than mitt romney did with the latino vote. make no mistake, when you see the stakes on what donald trump is carving tonight what is doing this for donald trump is the white vote. four years ago, people said after the election no republican could go higher than mitt romney did. donald trump is proving you can. >> you know on the hispanic, number two, it's fascinating,
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because if donald trump holds he is doing better than mitt romney did with latinos, still doing worse than john mccain did, the way he is making up for it is by spiking the white vote. i talked about it at the beginning of the night, chris you said you disagreed with me. but i feel like a lot of the really ragged edge of what donald trump did was to change the behavior of white votes. to tap into the enthusiasm, and that would obliterate what he may get from people of color. we have clinton under-performing barack obama with african-americans, although that was expected. what we got, though, the biggest number and the biggest thing that explains how trump could maybe win the presidency with only 29% of the latino vote is that he has spiked white vote. he figured out a way to do that. and that has always been the far right's dream that you could figure out a way to do it
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without minorities, in fact on the backs of minorities by threatening minorities that make a lot of people uncomfortable but that does a waken something that is racial anxiety among whites. and that is how you win. that has been a dream on the far right. the end culture dream of white turnouts. >> the three issues that he tapped into, trade, immigration, and wars, i think he is on the popular side of. the country hates the wars, the establishment has been on the side of the wars, including hillary. democrats want jobs, and the votes. nobody has gotten it together. in terms of trade, the fact is a good part of the states we're looking at tonight, just drive through michigan and wisconsin. and you will see places that are hollowed out. there is nothing left. there used to be a blockbuster's
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movie place to get videos. they're gone, now nothing that is left but the diner. and the community holding together, and trump said i think we can run against this stuff. and he put it together. i never heard hillary railing against the stupid wars, genuinely against the trade deals. she came out against tpp at the very end, nobody really believed it. i never heard her really come out with a comprehensive trade agreement, which enforced illegal hiring. sure she came out and got latino votes, but did she ever come out with an immigration policy? >> where was she on enforcement? >> she was all for the obama party -- >> did she ever campaign for it? >> yes, she did. >> when did she talk about
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everi everify? >> this is the area where she stepped what continually. >> i never heard her come out for the strong elements to the comprehensive immigration program. she thought she could get all the hispanic vote without paying a price. and if you have a law that works and enforce it you have to pay a political price. i never heard her do it. >> what she campaigned on was a comprehensive -- she campaigned on it. what she did not do was say build a wall -- >> did she ever say stop illegal hiring and illegal immigration in this country? i never heard her say it. i never heard her come out against illegal immigration, did you hear her say it? >> i never heard -- >> i never heard a country what didn't have a border or work permit and didn't get serious about it. and i think that the business wants the cheap labor, the democrats want the votes. you know what the solution is?
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what we have right now. that is what the democrats want, the republicans want that we have right now. trump took advantage of it. and i don't think it is racism. the way he did it was, but i don't think the issue was. >> i have two tasks -- well, give me three. number one it took joe biden to call la guardia a third world airport. and governor cuomo deciding how to react to it. and that is like amateur, calling la guardia a third world airport. casey, what did you just learn? >> well, one thing i have done tonight is reach out to people who worked to bernie sanders. because they feel like they learned a lot of lessons from their campaign. and i'm told bernie and jane sanders themselves saddened by what appears to be a donald trump win. they're upset about it. but there is a little bit of i
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told you so that you didn't pay attention to what was going on, that you didn't kind of embrace bernie sanders's ideas and approach enough. and it cost them. >> mike murphy, was surprised to hear michael steel. i'll raise this with him. say that the pollsters essentially got this right. they essentially did not get this right. we're covering a story that no one saw coming. >> well, my crystal ball has been shattered into atoms here, because i predicted the opposite of what happened. we have been living and dying by data for a long time and tonight data died. the exit polls originally were off, the most credible polling was off. trump had resonant issues, people wanted a change, i agree
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with chris, how the working class has had it. this is how they riot. the other half, we can't miss this, is what a big generic republican wave it was. there was a real repudiation of hillary clinton, and i think the third obama term. it needed two pieces to be such a different thing. i think they were both very, very powerful. there will be a lot of soul searching should trump win. in the democratic party -- as well as in the republican establishment. >> what did the prairie fire of bernie sanders and the prairie fire of donald trump have in common? >> they had a lot in common within that universe of primary voters because they both told people of different demographics that basically it was a dream and not in a good position for them, that they may not achieve it. with bernie, it was you can get
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that yoga degree for free. with trump, they were seeing jobs that it took twenty years to get, leave the country. so with them it was the enemy stealing jobs. a different type of resentment to people who had lost faith in the economic plan. i am from detroit. i have seen people there lose jobs and their freight train dismantle and take the jobs to mexico. >> how much will the supporters look to blame the people? how much of the blame do you think governor johnson will correctly get? >> i think the third party will get some blame from both. but the forces were bigger than that. that is atta tactical thing. donald trump's policies, as rough as they were, were embraced. >> he is arguing both were
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grievance policy candidates, they were selling grievances, but also they were selling authenticity. they were selling people something that was real. i don't think we should forget we spent the last few months of the campaign, reading through e-mails and exposing just how blow by blow hillary clinton comes to decide where is she going to be on the trans-pacific partnership, where is she going to stay? instead of saying this is somebody who believes that globalization is a force for good. i think people are rejecting that as well for this. >> which is hats off to the russian government. if we were all combing through the e-mail trains amid all the different trump campaign forces, trying to figure out how they came out with some of the policies and got him to say some of the things he would say,
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would be a blow to his authenticity. >> and it felt that -- >> telling voters something surprising is potentially even more fatal, right? >> a break for us. when we come back we'll check in with katy tur at trump headquarters. we have two campaigns and kind of a suspended animation. a holding pattern, one campaign unlike the other expecting to have some very good news when tonight is out. there is trump headquarters, new york hilton. sixth avenue, not far from here. mid-town manhattan, clinton headquarters. a far, far different picture. over at the jacob javis convention center on the west side of manhattan. our coverage will continue after a break.
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we are back, two very different evenings at two very different headquarters, and in a way kind of a mirror reflection of the differences in the two campaigns. the make america great red ats have been distributed in the hilton ball room in new york. the american flags behind the tell -- teleprompter, and inside the glass ceiling jacob javis
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convention center, which almost bore the name of donald trump were it not for some last-minute construction changes. and at the democratic convention, elaborate huge staging. they were candidly expecting a victory celebration, down to what was once a plan for fireworks over the hudson river, since cancelled when cooler heads prevailed days past when that plan became public. katy tur is at trump headquarters, having campaign e -- followed the trump campaign. >> reporter: i think i have done about 500 rallies. he is awaiting the allocation of
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270 electoral votes. i just want to remind people a little bit with donald trump at this late hour. and the questions that still are outstanding about him. we still have not seen donald trump's taxes. there are still questions surrounding his business and how he would deal with a potential conflict of interest. they talked about a blind trust going to his kids. but that technically is not a blind trust. there is also questions surrounding his relationship with russia. these are things unanswered at this time. and he also has not addressed directly in recent months what he would do about the muslim ban. he called it banning muslims or extremism from territory states, the number is quite high when you consider countries like france, who would have a tax on their soil, even a tax in the u.s. it is not clear how that would
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happen. he talked about people who he called extreme vetting. potentially among muslim registration, which we have not heard him completely review. he also said he is going to build the wall. we all know this. but he said he would end obamacare in his first 100 days in office by executive order. he said he would rip up the iran deal. these are things that are hard to do alone but it is increasingly looking like he is going to have the house and potentially the senate on his side. and if he makes a run with the rest of the states on the electoral map right now, he could essentially argue he has a mandate. so how his first 100 days in office would shape up to be is certainly an open question. there is also the question of who would occupy his cabinet. in the last few days, the talks have been continuing and more earnest than before. donald trump refusing to take
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part in those talks, because of superstition. obviously nothing is set in stone and these names could be something that don't ever come to be. but newt gingrich, as secretary of state, rudy giuliani as attorney general. reince priebus, maybe as chief of staff. there is even rumors out there that corey lewandowski could head up an office. that is how they would want to completely change direction. of course all of this is very preliminary. and there are still a lot of work to be done, this transition had been headed up by governor chris christie. but has sort of faded into the background in recent months. now we're told that jeff sessions has taken a larger role. we'll find out what they're doing in the next three months. after all, donald trump has not been involved in the talks. you can hear the crowd behind me. they are obviously very excited
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for donald trump. he is to take to the change. they're chanting right now. they're watching fox news. they believe the race is over. they just want to hear it. >> katy tur, thank you, it will take years to discuss all that needs to be talked about coming out of tonight. we have a call on the missouri senate race. it's really attracted so much attention. the democrats thought they could eke out a pickup. this race as i said earlier on pure technical grounds, probably gave us the craftiest ad of this campaign. the gentleman on the right, jason kander, the democrat who went down in defeat. showed he would put together an ar-15 blindfolded as countless members of the u.s. armed forces and law enforcement can do. but it was about guns as an issue in this race.
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and one ad does not a senate race or election wave make. so it's a net hold for the republicans. but mr. blunt, the veteran republican from missouri, always an interesting political state. it's going back to the senate. steve kornacki having forged an alliance with his technology, back at the boards, steve? take it out back. >> so we planted this seed earlier and talked about to be elected president it's all with the electoral college. make it very clear. we are also keeping track of the national popular vote. let's put out there what that vote is at this moment. donald trump with a lead over hillary clinton with about 1.2 million votes. however, most of the vote outstanding on this map is heavily tilted towards the west coast, more specifically over the state of california.
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this is an easy clinton win. but california, obviously, huge, only about a third of the vote is in, in california right now. hillary clinton is already leading by 1.2 million votes. now barack obama's margin over california years ago clinton is on page to exceed that margin. his margin is north of 3 million votes. so we are likely to tack on the 2 million votes for hillary clinton. hillary clinton is losing the national popular vote now by 1.2 million votes. now there are places on this map where donald trump will gain votes in idaho, utah, alaska, these are smaller places, there are votes coming in, in washington state, oregon, hillary clinton is winning big. i said earlier i was planting a seed now getting a bit more serious. al gore won the popular vote in the year 2000 by about half a million votes. and of course in that supreme court decision lost the state of
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florida and the electoral college and loss the presidency, now 16 years later, certainly as the possibility coming in, the possibility is hillary clinton winning the popular vote, but losing the electoral college and losing the presidency. >> if hillary clinton wins the popular vote, even if she doesn't win the presidency, that would mean the democrats have won in the last six elections. the last time it was pulled off was the republican party, like 1860 to 1888. if clinton wins the popular vote and the california numbers that steve was just saying suggests that will be true this will be also the case where the democrats lose the electoral college but wins the popular vote. >> i am told lawrence o'donnell
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in his insider segment has more than one pollster in the room tonight. we'll lock the door until you get the news. >> we have bill and fred yang, who is a democratic pollsters. bill, what did the polls get right and wrong? >> well, what they got right was the shape and the contour of this race. what they got wrong was the margins. so for example, in all of our polling we showed trump ahead, about what romney got. that is a net ten points extra. that is 3.4% more of the whole electorate. so then the other changes that trump did much better tonight with white women college. he lost them, but by single digits. in most of the public polling he has been losing by ten or 20
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points. but it's a reminder that where the areas where he won 62's campaigns are about margins. because of the margins it is reshaping the map of the midwest and the presidency. >> but fred, all of these polls carry a margin of error about three points which means if it says trump is at 44, he may be as high as 47, as low as 41. so it's really a ban of possibilities. are all the outcomes we're seeing within that band of predicted possibility? >> i would agree, tacking on to what bill said, in the battleground states because they're battleground states, they're 50/50 states. and today, mrs. clinton was on the wrong end of 50/50. i think some of the margins that we saw in some of the earlier polling compared to 2012 just didn't bear out. she didn't do as well with white
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women or millennials. barack obama carried that group by 23%. i think there were a lot of polls, not every poll, a lot of polls converged to suggest would be a two, three, 4% victory for mrs. clinton, and you pointed out that was within a margin of error. we still have a situation where she won the national poll. but because we have the electoral college she loses the election. >> bill, is there anything that you would see as the chief explainers of the outcomes? >> i think the chief explainers as i said, which was the margins by the men and women that didn't graduate from college. he is extraordinary. in the mid-60s, and just to put it in perspective, he is winning today white non-college voters more than ronald reagan did in 1980 against jimmy carter.
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that is a huge change. >> did the tools work within the margin of error and then therefore, this is what the tools predicted? >> even our last poll we conducted there were a bunch of questions that suggested this is an electorate wanting major change. i just think that we thought that donald trump was not that candidate to bring that change. and you know, they have spoke tonight. and this country that wanted change. >> that is why we count the votes. >> brian, back to you. >> let me ask you questions put to these guys. rachel asked a question, if this was a change vote, which was throw the rascals out? we haven't heard of any has defeat of any incumbents in the house and senate. so why just pick him but keep the usual tong together of the
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establishment? >> great question, fred you just talked about that. this indicated it was a changed election. >> change never means change, it means change the party of power -- >> why doesn't it mean change the senator in power? >> it never changes, they say they want change, you know what it changes? the party in power. despite barack obama's good standing tonight, his open approval. they have been there a long time. she offered more of the same and people said no. i think what you will remember in most polling there is 10 to 12% in third party undecided. well, they dropped as always, tipped republican. and to nate silver's credit, when he said there is a 30% chance this guy could win, there was a lot more slide in the polls, that is why he did a nice job representing. i'm sorry, there is about a 33%
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chance we'll see a president trump. and tonight you flip the coin ten times we deposit one of the three. >> how many late deciders were there? there is so much happening with regard to the fbi, and the leaked e-mails going back to her, did that affect the voting, could you tell? >> well, chris, in the exit polls, 13% of the electorate, they decided in the last week or more recently. and among that 13% they voted for trump by five points, 47-42. and another 9% going to the third party candidates. so i think you know, mrs. clinton's margin was predicated in some respects with the third and fourth party candidates. and groups she did well with also had a higher share of the party group. that goes to the change argument. the final thing i want to say
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for the change argument, there is another neat item in the exit poll. 37% of the american public said they wanted a president whose policies would be more liberal than barack obama's. 17%. and in that, they voted for hillary clinton by big margins, 27-23. in other words, 20% of voters who said they wanted a president whose policies were more liberal than donald trump, than barack obama, voted for trump. >> and saying in exit polls, they also said he don't think he had the right temperament to be resident. >> tonight they had to make a choice. 18% of the folks said they didn't like either candidate. that is three times the amount. he won those people. >> 49-29, which again represents to me what we're trying to say is i'm sorry. here is the line, americans are
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the only people in the world who would build a dream house and move before the roof is finished. it is very hard to get a third term for one party. it doesn't happen very often. harder still in modern america. >> brian, back to you. >> all right, lawrence, boy so much there to think about. and of course all of these know these gentlemen. we've hung on every word they have said on so many conference calls leading up to this election. we knew something was coming and brewing. someone tonight called donald trump the shiny vehicle of change. this change was coming. they were going to hop on a car and get in it and go. new car smell -- >> yeah, that is right. >> that was barack obama in 2014. >> let's record-keep on this senate race in pennsylvania. we talked about pennsylvania so
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mu much. and the incumbent is going back, pat toomey. >> i got a good call, he has won many races up there. people like rendell, the governor who works with us now said that hillary would have to win by four for her to get in. she would need the coat tails to bring her in. but and is in a mood right now. i talked to my brother, he said all the people showed up at the polls that had he had had never seen in montgomery. and he said they showed up, all k conservatives, we may not appreciate that in new york or washington, but up there it capped something, they said i will put up with trump who i consider immoral and awful to get my court protected. >> this is a very important moment for the supreme court and the republicans made a radical decision when antonin scalia
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died. where president obama wouldn't even have his nominee considered. i think roe versus wade is at risk. as james said earlier, obamacare, they have everything in place to repeal it. they have got everything in place they need to repeal dodd-frank. they have everything in place that trump needs to do on immigration, and immigration replatfor reform. roe versus wade have never been more at risk, with trump and pence here. >> i have to say, kristen welker here, am i correct that we'll hear from john podesta, assumed from the podium? >> reporter: well, here is what we know, brian, he is heading
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over here. what is significant is that the clinton campaign has largely gone dark for we over an hour now. let me take you through what happened. he was in the hotel watching the returns with secretary clinton. started to leave the hotel, and countered with reporters who asked for reaction to the results so far. he didn't have any. and they said are you going over to the java center? yes, he was coming here. we anticipate we'll hear from him. that would make sense. he did not indicate that secretary clinton would be coming over with him. in fact, he was asked directly if secretary clinton was coming to the java center, he said no, and there was movement in the headquarters, we'll get some reaction likely from the chairman.
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let me just set the scene here brian inside the java center. a number of people have left in tears. there is stunned disbelief as the results as they come in. earlier in the evening they were looking for any sign that there was a potential just silence as they listen to the music playing and await to hear what happens next, brian. >> kristen welker at clinton headquarters. james carville has joined us -- i'm sorry? maine, we have a projection, maine, it is being projected by nbc news, will be won by hillary clinton. when all the votes are cast, three out of the four electoral votes. >> so that means, we are not projecting the separate congressional district that -- >> no. >> donald trump gets one. >> ah, okay. got it. >>

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