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tv   Saturday Night Politics with Donny Deutsch  MSNBC  August 17, 2019 5:00pm-6:01pm PDT

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like to be cared about, like to be asked. donald trump's entire political success has been and is the awareness of the lonely millions who felt left out in the cold by the good people who can we all agree might have worked a little harder to keep their faith. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with ugs. stay with us right here on msnbc. good evening, i'm donny deutsch and i am thrilled to be here. there are exactly 444 dads until the 2020 presidential election. tonight i have a simple message to all educated affluent trump voters who sold their soul for a buck with the trump alibi of course i don't agree with all the divisive racist stuff but he's good for the economy so he's got my vote. you've fallen for trump's biggest lie. fun little fact. look at his first 937 days in office. the s&p was up 25%. at the same time in obama's tenure, the index was up 46%. sorry, donald, obama's was much bigger. lots to cover. this is "saturday night politics."
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welcome to the festival that is known as "saturday night politics." great panel tonight. we've got a first-timer, shavar jeffries, a.b. stoddard, who i met on nicole's show and i said we've got to get you on and we've been begging, here you are. associated columnist for real clear politics. joyce vance, probably my favorite msnbc person. you're here not just as joyce vance, not just as a u.s. attorney, you're here as a person beyond. you're going to get out of that mueller box. thank you for coming up from alabama. >> thanks. >> and then there is my gb friend, jonathan lemire. thank you for stepping in. >> i thought it was mike barnicle. >> he is too big for this show. we've got a lot to go. to let's go right to the wall. trump's casino economy.
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this week's ominous storm warnings from the bond markets, china and germany, show a looming recession, maybe even worse. are trump's erratic trade grenades equivalent to what he did to his casinos in the '90s? >> come to the castle in atlantic city. it's more than a hotel, it's a four-star resort. how about this. it's got action, it's got night life, the whole deal. it's too much. it's too much, isn't it? i like that. you're going to love it. >> and that was just one of the six bankruptcies. so, jonathan lemire, is the $39 hotel room in vegas a precursor to the $4 trillion in debt, one of the many things along with the trade wars along with all of a sudden china and germany showing signs of softening and a market starting to crater? >> right. to quote the now president, the
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whole deal for this president is the economy. he and his team are banking on that. they say the number one argument why he deserves another term is because he has overseen a strong economy. granted of course he inherited it from president obama, it was already on the rise. but for most measure, the economy has been pretty good during president trump's term. there are signs of weakness here in the last week or two in particular. you mentioned it. the china trade deal, which has stalled and we're seeing retaliatory tariffs going back and forth. the stock market, very volatile this week. other warning signs, including the big "r" word. for the first time there's some talk of maybe recession, maybe. if it shows up, if it shows up next year, next summer which people around the president fear it could, that is a significant hurdle for this president to overcome. as you were saying in the intro, for all those republicans who were sort of -- and independents who might have been willing to look the other way for some of the divisive policies and racist rhetoric, they did so because the economy was good. if that goes away, donald trump is in trouble. >> what's so ironic, joyce, is a
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guy who's a new york businessman and trump ran on being this fix-it business guy, that he was known in new york as a charlatan. let's put up the failed businesses before joyce responds. just the amounti of businesses e ran into the ground. he's had two or three properties that were successful and everything else is a failure. it is hard to spin right now the economy is going the right direction. >> you know, i think that's right. trump is a businessman. his style was conflict and brinksmanship. he did deals with other people's money, and that, as you point out, led to a string of failed businesses and bankrupt casinos. his style as president has been exactly the same, conflict and brinksmanship. that kind of uncertainty does not convince anyone to invest in the long-term economy. >> when things are soft, you have three tools to stimulate the economy. you can do a stimulus, but already our deficit is insane. oh, you can lower interest rates. can't really do that. and what's left, a tax cut?
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oops, did it. so he's out of magic wands and that's what makes it even more, more troubling for any trump people out there. >> that's right. the uncertainty is just escalating because he used the buffers that we would need in a downturn early on. he gave the economy a sugar high with the tax cut. it largely helped corporations. most persons don't feel it enough. it was so toxic as a political issue in 2018, republicans couldn't run on it in the midterm elections. now as you said, these are erratic trade grenades. he goes against the advice of his best experts and the treasury secretary to designate china a currency manipulator. it doesn't get him any help. he thought that would scare them and they'd back away. what it looks like is that the farmers and the chinese have him firg figured out. we'll see what happens. those are the two things he tells us every other day. nothing is happening and it appears that the chinese are set
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to ride this out. >> oh, yeah. >> to dig in for the long haul. >> by the way, somebody ran into mnuchin at a party and mnuchin says we don't know what china is doing. there's no there, there. a little reminder of trump's business acumen of the an nbc news piece in the early '90s will give a lot of warmth and comfort to those believing that trump will get us out of this. i say that facetiously. >> when you borrow as much money as donald trump did, nearly $2 billion, and the economy goes into a tailspin and you can't pay the interest on your loans, the bankers move in and they have. , the bankers move in and they have his trump shuttle goes to northwest airlines. what donald trump gets is a chance to start over. he probably won't have to
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declare bankruptcy. er he probably won't have to declare bankruptcy you know, this president, he's a salesperson. sident, he's a salesperson. he wants the people to believe things that are not as they are and as the economy continues to destabilize, he won't have any argument left. back to the wall.
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yours truly has that, elizabeth will get trounced by president trump in a 2020 presidential face-off. the newti polls showing that wi the suddenly weakened economy suggests this is one more example of why my first book was titled, often wrong. nevered in doubt. >> she'sr a spectacular human. i have nothing but respect for her. if the democrats end one her or bernie. they lose 47 states. the big democratic money that's waiting to get in there. if they run a candidate like warren,li it will begrudgingly the other way. >> as a marketer. she's running a great campaign. and oncet again, if we give trp the ammunition to call. and it's not a gender thing. anybody is socialist.
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i don't know if people want to welcome it into their living room. maybe it'sth the politics of bernie and elizabeth. but -- >> i'm sticking with that but i'm looking lying it could be wrong. >> i admire your stubbornness. >> she's surging here. not just that she's picked up the traction. she's improved as a politician. she's been able to connection on the ground in a way that some of her peers are not. she's better organized. she has more people out there in her organization ande her abily to a get them on caucus night t cast their ballot for her. a big test looms. the next debate in september. is this the night that we see her and joe biden on the stage at the same time in thede biden people are very nervous about
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that. they'rerv fearful how he perford with kamala harris. >> let's look at the polls. she is surging. he shas an 11-point lead in ohio. she is looking very, very, very, very strong. once again, tell donny he's wrong. that she can win. >> i'm very conservative about thesey early polls. i think they're very little more than beauty pageants. you want to see the trajectory over the long term. like you say, she'll face tests ahead but she's done very well. particularly with younger voters getting them animated. i think that's an important test. >> anythingn on the, i don't think i want to invite her into my living room every night? i'm going to get the texts. the likable president wins every
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time. >> i think if biden is tanked by the democratic party, they have noat alternative and she could n the nomination and lose the th general. and there are many who are petrified ofho this. all the moderates are at 1%. she's running a great campaign, grinding it out. she's really energizing the superin hyper engaged primary voters. she's considered a radical. they have likability issues. this is not misogynistic. likable is a factor. i wrote this months and months ago.on she come off often like a
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professorial at school. i like that all these voters think she's really great. she's really earning it and my hat isly off to everything she' done to outwork, outrun and outorganize everybody. i think she's the only one in the entire scenario who really wants to be president instead of think they should be president. she really wants the dirty job so she's d formidable. she has several impediments ahead of her. >> once again, she's amazing. my daughter should grow up to be elizabeth warren that 1972, doing the exact same thing. galvanizing the base. whipping it up in primaries. he lost 49 states. she wouldn'tos do that but i believe it is the same
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vulnerability. i think they're focused on who can win. i'm not as concerned about the likability question. highly subjective. i'm concerned about the privacy queflt i think medicare for all is something that most don't want to see. they don't wantwa to see the government taking it away. >> that's a loser. you're going to get on there and tell somebody like, anybody at this table that we can't get kind of insurance we want for our children. great in theory. it's a loser. i just did a scarborough. >> the idea that bernie sanders, for example, will decide for everybody, i don't think it will work. i'm more concerned about the
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policy. not being clear about how the country pays for it is something in a general election, they'll be concerned that. i think people want to see biden do very well. his performance in early debates has given people pause. >> i keep calling joe biden teflon joe. people want it son badly and ty believe, he doesn't drool on himself. it is the idealized joe. i believe if he performs just as he has, he'll succeed. am i crazy? >> people love joe biden. he reminds us of a time when the company was not coming completely off the rails. he's but not burnished a little with his closeness to barack obama. i think among younger people, not tor imply that you're old. but younger people, newer voters are very interested in these candidates who haven't been around for a long time.
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and to ab's point, i think they found elizabeth warren to be very likable. an interesting ticket is biden with one of these people. >> one thing i've learned with the more moderate suburban voters. people go from something r radical. >> if youet look at the electore and you look at the people sick of trump and might go either way, they're not looking for a revolution. we've just been through one and they're roexhausted. they don't think it's very successful and they want stability. while the young people who say they can'tg vote for a white me and they need radical change and they want elizabeth warren and brern and a now society, there are two more who say i just need
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normal. >> still ahead, trump's fear factor. he will try to ride the wave for a second term. i'm badse but you should see th other guys. let's stop pretending the most powerful man in america lives at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. vegas, baby! we'll tell hue has the edge in theas betting markets. viva las vegas ♪ what might seem like a small cough can be a big bad problem for your grandchildren. babies too young to be vaccinated against whooping cough are the most at risk for severe illness. help prevent this! talk to your doctor or pharmacist today
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welcome back. joining our group, becoming a regular, sam nunberg, a former trump campaign adviser. last week's show we rated through the roof and he's our new ratings machine west won't go back to the well. we had a little discussion that i thought was really interesting. we were talking with how trump and biden were to go a debate. trump won't show up at the debate. >> why does he have to? he can go to the first one and then say i don't feel like it to the second one.
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he breaks every rule. >> the counter is that he can't resist the big stage. everyone will watch and he will want to be part of that. >> he has to answer questions now. >> everybody here, you're thinking he understands he has weak knows. he doesn't. in this new hampshire rally -- >> that's a great tease. you're also a teasing machine. trump has built a white national presidency on fear. thursday night, new hampshire. he reveal his latest tactic of fearful can you imagine how bad it would be without me? >> if for some reason i wouldn't have would have been the election, these markets would have crashed. and that will happen even more so in 2020. see, the bottom line is, i know
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you like me and this room is a love fest. i know that. but you have no choice but to vote for me. because your 401(k)s down the tubes. everything will be down the tubes. so whether you love me or hate me, you've got to vote for me. >> all right. sam, you decode that had for us. >> when i spoke to him early on, we were looking at his approval ratings. when he ran, if we got his approval ratings up to 50%, it was giuliani. when julie jolly debated ruth, look at the way you treated the city. look at your staff and he would say, this is a tough business. what you saw him doing. i used to say i don't want to be nice. i don't want to be nice. he's trying to say that he knows he has likability problems.
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so he's changing the message to say, you may not like me but i'm necessary. >> so you say i know i'm going in the wrong direction but the other guys will take you further in the wrong direction. obviously in 2016, donald trump was going against someone who was nearly as high in the negatives. it won't that be way this time. there is concern about the economy. there's worry they'll try to demonize the other side. if they can't win on the economy, we'll see the cultural stuff that has really picked up. more and more of that. a tax based on race. >> i don't think that works when you get the money guys to look the other way.
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there's not enough. out of that 40, there's seven or afl this is not based on stats. >> that's the gamble. if he loses that, the argument won't work. >> i think that's true. he can stoke abortion issues. other issues besides racially divisive attacks. but i do think that donny is right. i think before the mid-terms, neil newhouse went to the white house and that for lack of a better word, cult following, is at 25%. if you look at, he has this very durable floor. i think it can go down if the economy, if we're not in a recession but there is no resolution on this trade thing into the spring. that's very dangerous territory. then he will lose the farmers. they're not stupid. they know more about trade. at some point they'll realize, their markets are gone for generations.
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maybe for the rest of their lifetime. >> i think as the economy slows down, what will happen is his white base will realize that they have so much more in common with class people of color than the wealthy white folks who benefit from the large tax cuts. they'll realize an everyday hard had a american, working in way. >> i think the economy is extremely weak when you look at trying to win a general election arguing on the economy. consumer debt, mortgages, bankruptcies, all up. that's why i disagree with donny about somebody like elizabeth warren. she says this economy is working for certain people and i'll make it work for all of you. i'll do these plans. and she makes it sound workable. that's populism. i think this complete misnomer
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about trump's base. i've seen the newhouse thing. that base is supposed to be your floor. that is his ceiling. president mcconnell. the two-headed monster. maybe they should focus on this. >> a dirty little secret is that mitch mcconnell is way more powerful than donald trump here. i don't think there is enough acknowledgement of the power that mitch mcconnell has and that he is the most powerful person in washington. because he is the one who is calling the signals on everything. >> would there be anything better for the democrats to do to really cause the republicans to just gnaw at each other by saying, guess what, mcconnell is the bigger problem. that would drive trump insane. >> that would definitely drive
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him crazy. and i think she's right. he's much more powerful. >> basically, all the policy is mcconnell. he decides what's going. what's not going. he's deciding on guns, on whether to keep our election safe. he's deciding on russia and trump is the guy out front. >> right. although mcconnell has said on guns that he's changed his tuna little bit in his rhetoric. but he said, if the president can rally support among senate republicans, then i'll get behind it. he knows donald trump even last time was on camera for confiscation. let alone all the universal background checks. so mcconnell has been to this rodeo with donald trump so many times. he will put his members up for re-election next year out on a shaky branch. >> i guess, the one thing that killed steve bannon was he was
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on the cover of "time" magazine. >> to me, don't laugh about it. >> if trump is watching this right now, last week he watched again. we got our second tweet. i know you love the show. you're not watching joanie and chachi. >> mcconnell is in a weird position. his numbers are terrible. he's in kentucky. trump's numbers are very good in kentucky. so they have a weird, almost symbolic relationship. i don't think it is reasonable. it's not feasible for the senate republicans to deal with nancy pelosi and the congress.
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i believe he will end up with the tariffs. he's the guy with the big club. what is the dynamic of the personal relationship? you would know better than anyone. forget policy point of view. do they like each other? >> not really. but they get along. certainly better than with paul ryan. there is a respect for mcconnell. he understands mcconnell does wield power. and he's delivered some of the biggest victories. the supreme court justices. >> mcconnell has delivered them. that's interesting. >> that was coming from the senate. not something from the president. he signed off on it but he understands there's a win there. yes. trump could provide it. it may or may not happen.
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the senate is not rushing back. i don't think anyone should expect something significant. if we can't figure it out from here. >> if little babies getting slaughtered didn't do it, this won't do it. when we do get three branches in 2022, that's when the world will change. coming up. absolute trump beating. it may not be a democrat who beats him. it could be a third candidate. >> we're going to win. we're going to win because there are only two things stopping us. making sure people have a reason to vote and the right to vote. >> there is something about stacey. she's not running for president but she says the she'll help democrats take back the white house. could she be the key? the key
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joining the group is tim miller from the jeb bush 2016
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campaign and he's a contributor to let's get back to the wall. absolute trump eater. without these three americans, theres no president clinton, no george w. bush, and most importantly, no president trump. it's time for america number four to change history. >> look at all the three candidates and then vote your conscience. >> promises to special interest groups over $10 billion. finding out the truth, priceless. there are some things money can't buy. for everything else, there's your voter registration card. >> this is climate madness. two men captaining our shipment of state into more danger. end the climate silence. stand up. >> all right. you told me last week that gary johnson, maybe roger stone was behind it. >> in 2012, roger worked for gary and took new mexico off the map for romney.
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he's the governor of new mexico. he takes a couple states off for republicans. he's very bad for democrats. particularly last cycle. he raised $13 million. and the world has changed with digital marketing. not only can you raise money but you can get to your voters. >> the tool for the democrats is just get somebody in. look at the perot numbers. he got 93%. we have no bill clinton without that. and we go back to the last election. let's put up the trump numbers. particularly in the states. look at that. there is no trump. so tim, who was out there that the democrats go to and even if they put $10 million in their pocket, say you're running as a third party. >> so this is a little known/unknown for me. if you look back at 2016, there were a ton of voters that dislike trump and hillary. among them, 20, hillary, 20, third party. so i get concerned no matter how conservative the person is, that
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you put in, you're asking people that don't like trump who feel like they have two bad choices that might suck it up and vote for biden. they might vote for the third party. so you might help trump even by putting a conservative into the race. >> that's why bill weld was gary johnson's vmp p. that's why new hampshire was so close. that's why trump was able to get an electoral vote out of maine he is well known from massachusetts. it was so bad. they realized he actually endorsed hillary. >> we don't think we can find a candidate that we would be sure would take 1.5% from trump and only a quarter percent from the other side? >> an evangelical? i'm trying to create a hypothetical candidate. maybe a really devout evangelical that just carves out some of the voters who don't like trump's morals but are voting with him anyway.
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that might be the jill steinway. hard right, gay issues, maybe. anybody in the middle, i'm open to the possibility. depending on who the democrat is. that could it help the democrat. but man, there is a risk there that you're giving anti-trump voters a home. a safe place to go instead of forcing them to hold their nose and vote for the nominee. >> an interesting suggestion coming off the polls that says people who don't like, as far as i'm not going on vote for trump. i don't like him 46-10. >> for biden. >> i mean, i think tim is right. an incredibly rksy proposition for democrats. the one thing we're not thinking about is that there could be someone from the democratic side who decides to play spoiler in this race. we could have a tulsi gabbard candidacy. >> that would, trump needs a third party candidacy to win. next topic. something about states dhacesta.
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no current presidential candidate would have as much lighter fluid as a vp nominee, stacey abrams. >> this is our country. and our voices will be heard. in 2020, we will shout louder and harder and more than we ever have before. because this is our time and the power is ours and we will not let anyone take it from us. we are going to have a fair fight in 2020. i'm going to use my energy. i'm going to use my energy and my very, very loud voice to raise the money we need to train those across the country in our 20 battle ground states to make sure donald trump and the senate take a hike and we put people in place who knows what we need to have in the united states of america for progress. >> she has something for me that none of the other democratic candidates have. she moves me. and elections are about how i feel. there is an authenticity. a passion. she didn't say any different words than any other cat says,
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but she is to me a secret weapon for the base. >> stacey abrams is an amazing leader shelf won more votes than any person in the party's history. young people. she has an amazing way. as candidate, her work to make sure that every vote should count is critical. we talked about the work mitch mcconnell did in the courts. the rolling back of section five of the voting rights act has led to a massive purnging. marchly in the south. her fair fight effort to make sure we can get everybody. every registered person to the polls is critical. she's an amazing leader. >> obviously you pair with biden. would it be suicide to pair with warren? i want to hear your answer as the wol on the panel to put god for bid two women running for
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office. >> i don't think it is a problem and i agree with your assess many of abrams on the stump. she's really talented. i have a big concern about her. that her advocacy about voting rights, i agree with. but she has leaned over into conspiracy territory in a way that is a little bit concerning to me. she said some things that if trump had said it, we would be condemning it. saying the election was stolen from her, she was the rightful winner. there was definitely some purging of the rules that should not have been there. she got a million more votes. >> i'm not even talking about policy. i'm talking about person and you fall in love with that woman. >> she's absolutely wonderful. i'm biased as a southern democrat. but i like her message. i like the way she delivers it. and i really don't think she is into could not peercy theory territory. as a u.s. attorney, i spent a lot of time and energy, every
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election psych ol' election integrity and it was never about voter fraud. exceptionally rare that we saw voter fraud. but suppression was a massive problem and it didn't come in just one package. it came in multiple times. she lost by a lot of votes. twa wasn't that close. >> the state of georgia could that make changes in their voting practice unless third cleared by the justice department. >> her opponent was running that election. you had her possibly is secretary of state in charge of the election. with that decision. >> suppression, she lost by a l lot. up next, vegas, baby. this will be fun.
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maybe instead of listening to the talking heads, we should check out who the casinos will win the nomination. a lot of interesting stuff to bet odds on. even if you don't want to go there. >> i'm not going to vegas! >> vegas! vegas, baby, vegas! ♪ limu emu & doug look limu. a civilian buying a new car.
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. welcome back. you're going to enjoy this one. let's get back to the wall. vegas, baby! if you want to get real insight, it's vegas, baby! >> we need to know about your trip to vegas. >> that's nice. ♪ >> one of the best advertising campaigns of all time. technically it's not vegas because you can't make political bets in vegas. but there are plenty willing to take your money. we'll start with the odds layout. first for the u.s. presidential election, right now donald trump is even money. joe biden is like 6 1/2 to 1. the reason the democrats are
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much bigger odds, none of them know who it will be. if you break it down, joib is 5-2. elizabeth warren, 11-4. so it's not even even though it says biden is a clear front returner, the betting odds, not so much. let's go into the fun stuff. celebrity odds. the u.s. presidential betting odds, michelle obama is 100-1 that she'll win the election. oprah winfrey, 150-1. george clooney, 250-1. you can make those bets. here's another one. melania trump's bets. 8-1. trump to marry -- this is real stuff. to marry for furth time as president is 50-1. and melania trump to run for president against trump in 2020 is 200-1. other bets. trump convicted by the senate in his first material.
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16-1. trump impeached by the house in his first material. 3-1. trump opens area 51 to the public in first material. 2-1. france will ask for the statue of liberty back. 200-1. and finally, trump narcissism specials betting odds. trump to have a u.s. navy ship named after him. 7-1. to have a u.s. military base named after him. 12-1. trump to publish precise dimensions of his hands on twitter. 50-1. okay. the interesting thing is going back to the betting odds. that right now, odds still have trump as 50/50 in vegas. >> there's the power of incumbency. i would say to go back to the silly ones, do they have bachelor trump in the white house. that work remarkable theater. we think we're in a remarkable theater now? imagine that.
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>> you say that in jest. we all know that trump is into producing a reality show. that would be a show. even as we watch -- >> you know, i'll play it out more. he says melania, leave me. now we have a broken, instead of a womanizer, a broken donald trump in office. the next show is who wants to be the first lady on fox? >> i think that trump's voters will find any of this endearing. because we know that this week, he criticized a guy in front of thousands of people for being overweight and the guy thought it was delightful. so he can do no harm. >> the narcissism bets are good odds. trump naming a ship after himself. easy money. that's what i'll be betting on. i thought warren and kamala had
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pretty good odds too. >> right now you have to place a bet. your year's salary, who is president come 2020? >> i'm going opposite of you. i think elizabeth warren. >> i would think to go with biden but i'm uncomfortable. >> i think it is a warren trump match-up. >> donald trump. sadly and unfortunately. it pains me to say that. >> i'm going with trump, too. reverse jinx. does it work if you announce it? >> i think there is a rush to count trump out. not necessarily here but as the punditry as a hole, to think he's too weak to squeak through. he did it last time. towed squeak through but he did it. maybe he loses by much more this time. it could be a very narrow margin. may be it is down to one state. >> wisconsin. he could win again. >> a few months ago i would have. absolutely trump. i think it is 50/50.
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and let's not forgetering with don't have very safe voting polls. still ahead, our trump moment of the week and it's chilling. ment of the week and i chilling (vo) the hamsters, run hopelessly in their cage. content on their endless quest, to nowhere. but perhaps this year, a more exhilarating endeavor awaits. defy the laws of human nature,at the summer of audi sales event. get exceptional offers now. if you have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, every day can begin with flakes. it's a reminder of your struggles with psoriasis. but what if your psoriasis symptoms didn't follow you around? that's why there's ilumya.
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time for our trump moment of the week. this is a man who sums it up. he wants to buy greenland. that's right. trump's green new deal considering buying greenland. i didn't think you could buy chunks of the planet. i know you can buy a tower or a casino and run it into the ground. i don't get it. i want to thank my excellent guests tonight. that does it for us tonight on snp. we'll be back next week at 8:00. have a great week, everybody. woman: (on phone) discover. hi. do you have a travel card? yep. our miles card. earn unlimited 1.5 miles and we'll match it at the end of your first year. nice! i'm thinking about a scuba diving trip. woman: ooh! (gasp) or not. you okay? yeah, no, i'm good. earn miles. we'll match 'em at the end of your first year.
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and i hope you at home have a good weekend too. i'm sure you deserve it too. i can tell. before we get there, we have kind of a doozy of a show tonight including some of the weirdest news stories we've covered in quite some time. we're going to start tonight in new york state where this is the duly elected attorney general of the state. her name is tish james. she was first elected this past november. won by a huge margin. very popular in the state. she is the first woman to ever be elected attorney general of the state of new york. she's the first african american to ever serve as attorney general in the state of new york. she is the first african

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