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tv   Saturday Night Politics with Donny Deutsch  MSNBC  August 17, 2019 8:00pm-9:00pm PDT

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>> i'm so grateful to both of you. unfortunately we're out of time but we'll continue the discussion, i have a lot of shows in this place. thank you to both you. that does it for "all in," catch it every weeknight right here on msnbc. good evening, i'm donny deutsch and i am thrilled to be here and there are exactly 440 days until the 2020 presidential election and tonight i have a simple message to all educated, affluent trump voters who sold their soul for buck to the trump alibi of, of course i don't agree with the racist, divisive, hateful stuff but he's good for the economy so he's got my vote. fun little fact. looking at trump's first 937 days, the dow was up much bigger in obama's administration. much to cover. this is "saturday night
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politics." welcome to the festival known as "saturday night politics "we've got a first timer, a democratic strategist and attorney. and amy stoddard who i met on nicolle's show, we've been begging to get you on and here you are. joyce vance, probably my favorite msnbc person. you are here not just as joyce vance, former u.s. -- no, i'll get to you in a second. not just as a u.s. attorney. you're here as a person beyond. you have to get out of that box. thank you for coming up from alabama. >> thanks. >> and then my good friend jonathan lemire, carrot top could not make it in from vegas. >> i thought it was mike barnicle. >> he's too big for this show. let's go right to the wall. trump's casino economy.
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this week's ominous storm warnings from the bond markets, china, and germany show a looming recession or maybe worse. are trump's erratic trade grenades equivalent to what he did to his casinos in the '90s? >> come to the casino in atlantic city. it's more than a hotel. it's a resort. how about this? it's got action, it's got night life, the whole deal. it's too much. it's too much, isn't it? i like that. you're gonna love it. >> and that was just one of his six bankruptcies. jonathan lemire, is a $39 hotel room in vegas a precursor to the $4 billion in debt, one of the many things along with the trade wars, all of a sudden china and germany showing signs of softening and the market
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starting to crater? >> right. the whole deal for this president is the economy. he and his team are banked on th banking on that. granted of course he inherited a strong economy from president obama, it was already on the rise. for most measures, the economy has been pretty good during president trump's term. but there are signs of weakness here, in the last week or two in particular. you mentioned it, the china trade deal which is stalled, and we're seeing retaliatory tariffs going back and forth. the stock market, very volatile this week. other warning signs including the big "r" word, for the first time there's some talk of maybe recession, maybe. and if it shows up, if it shows up next year, next summer, which people around the president fear it could, that is a significant hurdle for this president to overcome and for as you were saying in the intro, for all those republicans and independents who might have been willing to look the other way for some of his divisive policies and frankly racist rhetoric, they did so because the economy is good. if that goes away, donald trump is in trouble. >> what's so ironic, joyce, a
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guy who is a new york businessman, trump ran on being this fix-it business guy, that he was known in new york as a char charlatan. let's put up the failed businesses, the amount of businesses he's ran into the ground. he's had two or three properties that have been successful and everything else has been a failure. it's hard to spin that right now the economy is going in the right direction. >> that's right, trump is a businessman. his style was conflict and brinksmanship. he did deals with other people's money. that has, as you point out, led to a string of failed businesses and bankrupt casinos. his style has president has been exactly the same, conflict and brinksmanship. that kind of uncertainty does not convince anyone to invest in the long term economy. >> when things are soft, you have three tools, to stimulate the economy. you can do a stimulus, already our deficit is insane. or i guess you could lower interest rates. can't really do that. and what's left?
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a tax cut? oops, did it. he's out of magic wands. that's what makes it more troubling for any trump people out there. >> that's right, the uncertainty is escalating. he used the buffers we would need in a downturn early on. he gave the economy a sugar high with the tax cut, it largely helped corporations. most americans don't feel it enough. it was so toxic as a political issue in 2018, republicans couldn't run on it in the midterm elections. now, as you said, these are erratic trade grenades. he goes against the advice of his best experts and treasury secretary to designate china a currency manipulator. it doesn't give him any help. he thought it would scare them and they would back away. he threatened new tariffs then backed off a little bit. i kee he keeps thinking that china will come to the table. we'll see what happens, the chinese are dying to get to a deal. that's what he tells us every day. nothing is happening. it appears the chinese are set
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to ride this out. >> oh, yeah. >> to dig in for the long haul. >> somebody ran into mnuchin at a party the other night and mnuchin says, no one knows what china is doing, there's no there there. an nbc news people in the early '90s will give a lot of warmth and comfort to those believing donald trump will get us out of this. >> when you barrow orrow as mucy as donald trump does, the bankers move in. and they have. here's what's in the works. donald's $100 million yacht goes to the boston safe deposit and trust company. his half interest in the grand hyatt hotel goes to bankers trust. his interest in alexanders department store goes to citi corps. what trump gets is a chance to start over.
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he probably won't have to declare bankruptcy. >> you get a chance to run and become president of the u.s. is this a great country or what? >> it's an amazing country and unfortunately we have a con man for president. my grandmother said, you can't call syrup on crap and call it pancakes. >> did you just call the president syrup on crap? >> yes, that's what it seems like. his trade policy of tweeting by night seems to have cost us our trade partners. germany's economy is struggling right now, that hurts us. and so, you know, this president, he's a salesperson. and he wants the people to believe things that are not as they are. and as the economy continues to kind of destabilize he won't have any argument left for reelection. >> his argument, we'll get to it in a segment a little later, yeah, imagine how bad it could be. we can imagine other thing. back to the wall.
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elizabeth the great. yours truly has said all along elizabeth warren would get trounced by trump. this is one more example of why my first book was entitled "often wrong, never in doubt." she's a spectacular human. i have nothing but respect for her. nothing i've been sure of, with the democrats end up with her or bernie, they lose 47 states, the big democratic money that's waiting to get in there. if all of a sudden they run a candidate like warren, a lot of it is going to go the other way. i as a marketer, as a strategist, say wrong call, elizabeth. jonathan, i'm sticking with it. she's running a great campaign. once again, if we give trump the ammunition -- it's not a gender thing, it's bernie -- anybody a socialist and money sits on the sideline. and one other thing, this is what i want to throw out to the
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table. i find both her and bernie beyond their politics a certain stridentness that i don't know if people want to welcome into their living room every night. it's always the most likeable candidate. maybe it's the politics of bernie and elizabeth but that gnaws at me also. >> i admire your stubbornness if nothing else. she's surging here. it's not just that she's picked up in the polls. she's improved as a politician even in the last few months, she connects with voters on the ground than some of her peers do not. also she's organized, that's a story in iowa that's going to get more and more traction. she has more people out there, more organization, better ability to get caucus people to go out and cast their ballot for her. she is someone who is having a moment now. a big test looms, though. the next debate in september, is this going to be the night that we finally see her and joe biden at the same time? the biden people are nervous about that, they're fearful how
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he performed with kamala harris. elizabeth warren could go after him just as hard. >> biden still harolds a 31-20 lead. but she's got an 11-point lead in ohio, five-point lead in wisconsin. once again, tell donnie is wrong, that she can win. >> look, i'm very conservative about these early polls. they're really very little more than beauty pageants. you want to see that trajectory with polls over the long term. like you say, she'll face tests ahead. but she has done very well, particularly with younger voters, getting them incredibly animated and going to work for her. and i think that's an important trend for 2020. >> ab, anything to my "i don't know if i want to invite her into my living room every night"? and once again, her and bernie. the likeable president wins every time.
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this is not gender. this is persona. >> no, i absolutely agree with you. i agree with your thesthesis. i wrote about this yesterday. if biden is tanked by the democratic party, they have no centrist alternative and she could absolutely win the nomination and lose the general. there are people petrified of the scenario. all the moderates are at 1% or can't make the debate stage. there is no alternative. she is running a great campaign, grinding it out, working really hard. she's really energizing the super hyperengaged primary voters. but she is considered by the general electorate a radical and so is bernie. they are scolds like senator ted cruz. i wrote a piece that this is not misogynistic, likability is a real factor, months and months ago. it's not fair to say a woman can't win because no woman can win. she comes off often as a
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professorial scold. >> if i said that, i would have gotten killed. >> i like the fact that voters think she's great, he's earning this. she's outrun, out-organized everybody, to not be splashy, to earn this the hard way. she's the one in the entire scenario who really wants to be president instead of just think they should be president. she really wants the dirty job. she's formidable. but i do think that she has several impediments ahead of her and i think she would still lose the general election. >> once again, she's amazing. my daughter should grow up to elizabeth warren, i only come back to who could beat trump. i probably don't remember george mcgovern, 1972, doing the exact same thing, galvanizing the base, whipping it up in primaries, ideologically taking us there, and he lost 49 states. elizabeth warren would not lose
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47 states. >> democratic primary voters would like to see joe biden do well, they're focused on who can win. i'm not concerned about the likability question. that's obviously highly subjective. i'm concerned about the policy question. medicare for all is something the majority of americans don't want to see. >> let's stop right there. that's a loser. you'll get on there and tell somebody like anybody at this table that we can't get the kind of insurance we want for our children? no, ain't gonna work. great in theory. it's a loser. i'm sorry. i just did a scarborough. >> i agree, americans trust themselves to make decision about their health care more than the government. the idea that bernie sanders for example will decide for everybody what sort of health insurance they have i don't think is going to work. frankly with democratic voters, let alone voters in a general election. i'm more concerned about the policy orientation. continuing to have a series of proposals that are very expensive and not being clear on
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how the country pays for those will be a concern in a general election as well as in a democratic primary. people want to see biden do very well. his performance in the early debates, though, has given some folks some pause. >> joyce, i keep calling him teflon joe, just like trump is teflon don. i think if he doesn't drool on himself and it's the idealized version of joe, just put it in neutral right now, stacey abrams, somebody great, and i believe if he performance just as he has, he will succeed. am i crazy? >> people love joe biden. he reminds us of a time when the country wasn't coming completely off the rails. he's burnished a little bit by his closeness with barack obama. i will disagree with you and say this, i think among younger people, not to imply that you're old. >> i am old. >> younger voters are interested in some of these candidates who haven't been around for long
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time. to ab's point, i think they find elizabeth warren to be very likeable. an interesting ticket is biden with one of these other people that whether or not he'll stay the course i think is anybody's guess. >> one thing i've learned in consumer behavior, and this is certainly with the more moderate suburban voters, people go for something that is out there and radical. they tend to not go back to radical. >> that is the other point about her being a radical. if you look at the electorate and you get away from biden winning the rust belt, you just look at the people who are sick of trump and might go either way, they're not looking for a revolution. we've just been through one and they're exhausted. they don't think it was very successful. and they really want stability. while the young people who say they can't vote for white male and they need radical change and they want elizabeth warren or bernie to reorder society, for every one of those voters there are probably two more that say, no, i just need -- >> let's break it here. ahead, trump's final fear
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factor. it worked for him the first time, i'm try and ride that wave of fear back for second term. his latest argument, yeah, i'm bad but you should see the other guys. plus i said democrats should run against the two-headed swarp thing. i think democrats should run against mitch mcconnell. and vegas, baby, want to roll the dice on the 2020 presidential hopefuls? viva las vegas. ♪ viva las vegas we're pretty different. we're all unique in our own ways. somos muy diferentes. muy diferentes. (vo) verizon knows everyone in your family is different. there are so many of us doing so many different things. (vo) that's why verizon lets everyone mix and match different unlimited plans.
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welcome back to "saturday night politics." joining our group, sam nunberg, beaked a regular, former trump adviser. last week's show's ratings went through the roof. he's a ratings machine. >> i'm a ratings machine. >> we started talking about basically how would trump and biden do in a debate. you brought up, trump won't show up. >> why does he have to? he breaks every rule.
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>> if the counter is he can't resist the big stage, everyone's going to watch, the ratings will be huge, he'll need to be pafrltpart of that. >> to say, look, i'm above this, and he has to answer questions now, are you an unindicted co-conspirator. >> you're thinking he understands his weaknesses. he doesn't. in his new hampshire rally -- >> that's a great tease. >> -- he says "my poll numbers are going up." >> trump built his presidency on fear of the other. will that make trump look like a loser? thursday night in new hampshire, he said can you imagine how bad it would be without me. >> if for some reason i wouldn't have won the election, these markets would have crashed. and that will happen even more so in 2020. see, the bottom line is, i know
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you like me, and this room is a love fest, i know that. but you have no choice but to vote for me because your 401(k)s, down the tubes. everything's going to be down the tubes. so whether you love me or hate me, you've got to vote for me. >> sam, will you decode that for us? >> when i spoke to him early on, we were always looking at his approval ratings. and we thought that if he ran and we got his approval ratings in the early states in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, up to 50%, we would then say, especially with a plurality, is what i call the guiliani. when giuliani messenger, she would say, you're disgusting, look at the way you treated the city and your staff, and he would say, this is a tough business. you remember this, trump used to say, i don't want to be nice. what he's trying to do is say to everyone that he knows he has likability problems. this is where you know he knows he's losing right now. he's trying to change the message to, you may not like me
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but i'm necessary. >> are voters, jonathan, that gullible that you're going in the wrong direction and you say, i know we're going in the wrong direction but the other guys will take you further in the other direction. are the swing voters that naive for lack of a better word? >> we'll have to see. obviously in 2016, donald trump benefitted greatly from running against someone else who had negatives nearly as high as his. that's not going to happen this time around, almost certainly. that tool in his arsenal goes away. i think we are seeing this, there is concern in the white house about the economy, they're worries they're going to try to demonize the other side, call them socialists. >> exactly why if we set up elizabeth warren or bernie sanders, they'll lose. don't give him that out. >> the culture war stuff, he's going to do more and more of that, attacks based on race. >> that works when you get the money guys to look the other way. there is not enough baked into
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that 40%, i don't believe. out of that 40, there's 7 or 8. i think when they don't have that, if he loses that, that argument is not going to work. >> i think that's true. he can stoke abortion -- i mean, there are other issues besides racially divisive attacks. but i do think that donnie is right, i think that before the midterms, he said his for lack of a better word, cult following is 25%. it's a durable floor. it can go down if we're not in a recession but a downturn and there's no resolution to the trade thing by next spring, that's very dangerous territory. then he begins to lose not only the known guys as you said, but he's going to lose the farmers. they're not stupid, they know more about trade than donald trump does. at some point they're going to realize their markets are gone for generations, maybe for the rest of their lifetime.
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>> as the economy slows down, i think what's going to happen is his white base is going to realize that they have so much more in common with working class people of color than the wealthy white folks who benefitted from the large trump tax cuts, they're going to realize that an everyday hardhat american driving a truck, working in retail, they have a lot more in common with that person than in a billionaire con man. >> i think the fundamentals of the economy are extremely weak. consumer debt, mortgage failures, bankruptcies, all up. that is why i disagree with donnie about somebody like elizabeth warren, because i think that she says, look, this economy is working for certain people, and i'm going to make it work for all of you, and i'm going to do these plans and i'm going to do this of she, unlike bernie, makes it sound sensible. that is populism. that is something that we attach donald trump too. that is different. she's doing a good job with it. i also think this complete misnomer about trump's base.
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i've seen the new houhouse thin he's doing another one now. that base is supposed to be his floor. that's his ceiling right now. he's in a terrible position, a terrible position. >> president mcconnell. last week i introduced a scary swamp thing as a target for the dems to run against. maybe on second thought the dems should just focus on the most powerful man in america, president mcconnell. >> the dirty little secret here is mitch mcconnell is way more powerful than donald trump here. i don't think there's enough acknowledgement of the power that mitch mcconnell has. and that he is the most powerful person in washington, because he is the one that's calling the signals on everything. >> ab, would there be anything better for the democrats to do to really cause the republicans to just gnaw at each other by saying, guess what, mcconnell is the bigger problem? that would drive trump insane. >> oh, that definitely would
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drive him crazy. i think senator mccaskill is right, he's much more powerful. >> i mean, basically all the policy is mcconnell. he decides what's going, what's not going. he's deciding on guns. he's deciding on whether to keep our elections safe. he's deciding on russia. and trump is just the guy out front, you know, flagging around. >> right. although mcconnell has said on guns that he's changed his tune a little bit in his rhetoric, he's not promised to -- >> give it a few weeks from now. >> he's said if the president can rally support among senate republicans and republican members in the house to do something on guns, then i'll get behind it. but what he knows is that donald trump, even last time he was on camera for confiscation let alone universal background checks and other things and then walked it all back. so mcconnell has been to this rodeo with donald trump so many times, he will not put his members up for reelection next year out on a shaky branch only to have trump knock it down. >> the cover of "time" magazine,
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that was the beginning of the end. >> i told them to take that magazine in to trump and laugh about it, don't ignore this, deal with it immediately. >> and all of a sudden, if trump's watching this right now, by the way, because last week he watched again, i know you love the show, donald, i know you're not watching "joanie versus ch h hchh chchc -- chatchie" reruns. >> trump's numbers are very good in kentucky. they have a weird, almost sa symbiotic relationship. i don't think mcconnell wants anything to pass on guns. i don't think it's feasible for senate republicans to deal with nancy pelosi in the congress. so what's going to end up happening here is that i believe also mcconnell is going to end
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up pressuring trump on these tariffs as well. >> that's my point. jonathan, absentee the's the gu big club. what is the dynamic of their personal relationship? forget policy point of view. do they like each other? >> not really, but they get along. certainly the president's relationship with mitch mcconnell is better than it was with paul ryan who he grew to really detest in that role and thought was weak. there was respect for mcconnell because he does wield real power. mcconnell has delivered supreme court justices, countless judges to the bench. >> mcconnell has delivered them, interesting that you said that. >> that was coming from the senate, not something that originated with the president. but he signed off on it. he understands there's a win there. and there is a sense, yes, trump is more popular with republicans than mcconnell. trump could provide some cover for those republican senators if he really did come out for background checks and whatever other gun control measures may
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or may not happen. but at the same time, the clock is running out, momentum may fade, i don't think anyone should expect something significant. >> it's such an obvious -- if we can't figure this out from here, if little babies getting slaughtered in school didn't do it, the next one's not going to do it. until we get all three branches, it's not changing. and had when we do get three branches in 2022, that's when the world will change. coming up, it may be a third party candidate that ends trump's candidate. plus this. >> we're going to win. we're going to win because there are only two things stopping us in 2020. making sure people have a reason to vote, and that they have the right to vote. >> there is something about stacy. stacey abrams is not running for president but she says she could help democrats take back the white house. this was me six years ago...
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welcome back to "saturday night politics."
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joining us is a contributor to bulwark. ross perot, ralph nader, and jill stein. without these three candidates, there is no president clinton, president bush, or president trump. it's time for candidate number four to change history. >> look at all three candidates and then vote your conscience. >> promises to special interest groups. over $10 billion. finding out the truth? priceless. >> there are some things money can't buy. for everything else there's your voter registration card. >> this is climate madness. two men captaining our ship of state into more danger. end the climate silence. stand up. >> sam, you told me last week that gary johnson, roger stone was behind the gary johnson -- >> in 2012, roger worked for gary. it took new mexico off the map for romney, he was the governor
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of new mexico. he takes a couple of states off for republicans but he's very bad for democrats, particularly last cycle. first of all, he raised $13 million. the world has changed with digital marketing, not only can you raise money but you can get to your voters. >> i mean, the tool for the democrats is just get somebody in. let's look at the perot numbers when he ran against -- he got 19%. i'm not saying a third party candidate will get 19%, but we would have no bill clinton without that. look at that, there's no trump. so, tim, who is out there that the democrats go to and even if they put 10 million bucks in their pocket, say you're running as a third party. >> so this is a little bit of a known-unknown for me. if you look back at 2016, there were a ton of voters who disliked trump and hillary. so i'm concerned, no matter how conservative the person is that you put in, what you're doing is
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you're asking people that don't like trump who feel like they have two bad choices, they might just suck it up and vote for biden, they might vote for the third party. you might accidentally help trump even by putting a conservative in the race. >> that's why bill weld was gary johnson's vp the last time, that's why new hampshire was so close, because he's well-known from massachusetts, he had been governor, and it was so bad that when bill weld realized, at the end he endorsed hillary. >> we don't think we can find a candidate who would take 1.5% from trump and a quarter percent from the other side? >> i'm trying to create a hypothetical candidate, maybe a really devout evangelical who ca carves off trump's voters who don't like his morals? that would be the way to go, that's sort of the jill stein
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play, way far to the right, hard liner on abortion, immigration, gay issues, maybe, that's the best thing i can think of. anybody in the middle, i'm open to the possibility depending on who the democrat is, that it could help the democrat. but man, there's a risk there that you're just giving anti-trump voters a home, a safe place to go instead of forcing them to kind of hold their nose and vote for the democratic nominee. >> joyce, that's an interesting suggestion, coming off the polls this week that says, people that don't like as far as i'll going to not vote for trump as opposed to not vote for biden. >> i mean, i think tim is right, it's an incredibly risky proposition for democrats. and the one thing we're not thinking about is the fact that there could be someone from the democratic side who decides to play spoilner in this race, we could have a tulsi gabbard candidacy or a bernie write-in candidacy that would be devastating. next topic, something about
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stacey, no current presidential candidate would have as much lighter fluid as a vp nominee, stacey abrams. >> this is our country. and our voices will be heard and in 2020, we will shout louder and harder and more than we ever have before, because this is our time and the power is ours and we will not let anyone take it from us. we are going to have a fair fight in 2020 because i'm going to use my energies. i'm going to use my energies and my very, very loud voice to raise the money we need to train those across the country in our 20 battleground states to make sure that donald trump and the senate take a hike and we put people in place who know what we need to have in the united states of america for progress to be brought. >> she has something for me that none of the other democratic candidates have, i lean in, and she moves in, and elections are about how i feel, there is an authenticity, there's a passion. she doesn't use different words
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than any of the other candidates have said but she to me is a secret weapon for the base. >> stacey abrams is an amazing leader. she won more votes than any democrat in the history of the state of georgia. she brought on african-american voters, latinos in record voters, young people in record numbers.charisma. she is an amazing leader. in addition, her work to make sure that every vote should count is critical. we talked about the work mitch mcconnell did in the courts, the rolling back of section 5 of the voting rights act has led to massive purging of people of color from the voter rolls, particularly in the south. her fair fight effort to make sure we can get every registered personal to t person to the polls, is critical. >> would it be fair to pair her with warren? will we ever be roieady to put o women running for office?
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>> i think stacey abrams is more talented than anyone in the field. i have a big concern that her advocacy about voting rights i agree with, but she has leaned over into conspiracy territory in a way that's concerning to me. she said some things that if trump had said it, we would be condemning it, saying the election was stolen from her, she was the rightful winner. i mean, there was definitely some -- there definitely was some purging of the rolls that shouldn't have been there but she got a million -- >> joyce, i'm not even talking about policy. i'm talking about a person, and you fall in love with that woman. >> she's absolutely wonderful. i'm biased as a southern democrat, but i like her message, i like the way she delivers it. and i really don't think she's into conspiracy territory. as a u.s. attorney, i spent a lot of time and energy, every election cycle, on election
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integrity, and it was never about voter fraud. exceptionally rare that we saw voter fraud. but suppression was a massive problem. and it didn't come in just one package. it came in multiple different times. >> she lost by a lot of votes, though. it wasn't that close. >> the history of georgia and the section 5 of the voting rights act is that the state of georgia couldn't make changes in their voting practices unless they were precleared by the justice department because of the history of voting rights. it's clear that without voter suppression, she would be governor of the state of georgia. >> you had her opponent as secretary of state in charge of the election, in charge of purging from the rolls, and also with shelby county, with that decision and the lack of -- >> the suppression is bad, but she lost by a lot. >> we've got to go. you guys didn't wait to get called, this is what makes the show good. up next, vegas, baby. this will be fun, guys, trust me on this one.
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maybe instead of listening to the talking heads we should just check out who the casinos think will win the nomination. we'll tell you where the smart money is and other interesting stuff to bet odds on even if you don't want to go there. >> i'm not going to vegas. >> you're going. >> i'm not going to vegas. >> you're going to vegas, mike. >> will we get there by midnight? >> vegas, baby! much you clean, does your house still smell stuffy? that's because your home is filled with soft surfaces that trap odors and release them back into the room. so, try febreze fabric refresher febreze finds odors trapped in fabrics (bubbles popping) and cleans them away as it dries. use febreze every time you tidy up to keep your whole house smelling fresh air clean. fabric refresher even works for clothes you want to wear another day. make febreze part of your clean routine for whole home freshness. ♪la la la la la.
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maybe that's why most of our clients come from other money managers. fisher investments. clearly better money management. ♪ corey is living with metastatic breast cancer, which is breast cancer that has spread to other parts of her body. she's also taking ibrance with an aromatase inhibitor, which is for postmenopausal women or for men with hr+ / her2- metastatic breast cancer as the first hormonal based therapy. ibrance plus letrozole was significantly more effective at delaying disease progression versus letrozole. patients taking ibrance can develop low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infections that can lead to death. before taking ibrance, tell your doctor if you have fever, chills, or other signs of infection, liver or kidney problems, are pregnant, breastfeeding, or plan to become pregnant. common side effects include low red blood cell and low platelet counts,
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welcome back to "saturday night politics." you guys will deploy thenjoy th. want to get real insight to what the future brings in washington? it's vegas, baby. >> we need to know about your trip to vegas. yes. >> vegas was nice. you know, it was -- >> one of the best advertising campaigns of all time. technically it's not vegas because you can't make political bets in vegas. but there are plenty of odds makers out there willing to take your money. i always say follow the money. we'll start with two kind of odds layout for the presidential campaigns. for the u.s. presidential election, 2020, right now donald trump is even money. joe biden is 6 1/2 to 1,
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elizabeth warren 7 to 1. if you break it down between the democrats, joe biden is 5 to 2. elizabeth warren, 11 to 4. so there really is not, even though it says biden is a clear frontrunner in the polls, the betting odds, not so much. here is some interesting stuff. let's go into some more of the fun stuff, okay? celebrity odds. u.s. presidential betting odds, measurable obama is 100 to 1 that she'll win the election. oprah winfrey, 150 to 1. george clooney, 250 to 1. melania trump bets, revealed to be living with another man in trump's first term, 8 to 1. this is real stuff, guys. trump to marry for fourth time as president is 50 to 1. okay. other bets. trump convicted by the senate in his first term, 16 to 1. trump impeached by the house in
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his first term, 3 to 1. trump opens area 51 to the public in his first term, 2 to 1. france will ask for the statue of liberty back, 2 to 1, you can maybe that bet. finally, trump to have a u.s. navy ship named after him, 7 to 1. trump to have a u.s. military base named after him, 12 to 1. trump to publish precise definitions of his hands on twitter and trump to commission his face on mt. rushmore 100 to 1. i guess the interesting thing is going back to the betting odds, the first one, the presidential, jonathan, right now odds still have trump as 50/50 in vegas. there is is the power of incumbency, inherently that's a good bet to them. we certainly don't wish for the dissolution of any marriage. the idea of bachelor trump in the white house, that would be remarkable theater. we think we're in a reality show now? imagine what that would be like.
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>> you say that in jest, that trump is producing a reality show. that's a show people would -- even as we watch the -- go down the -- you know, play it out more. he gives -- he says melania leave me. now we have a broken, instead of a womanizer, and the next show is who wants to be the first lady on fox. >> i think that trump's voters will find any of this endearing because we know that this week, he criticized a guy in front of thousands of people for being overweight and the guy thought it was delightful even though it turned out he was a supporter. so he can do no harm as we know. >> the narcissism bets seem to be the good odds. i think trump naming a base or ship after himself seems to be easy money. >> speaking of bets, right now,
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you got to place a bet, your year's salary, who's our next -- who's the president come 2020. >> i think elizabeth warren. >> i would have to go with biden, but i'm uncomfortable. >> i think it's a warren-trump match up. >> donald trump. >> i'm going with trump too. >> reverse jinx. >> there's a -- people think he's too weak. he squeaked through it last time. but there's a way that he could win, maybe he loses the popular vote by more this time. it could be a very narrow margin. maybe it comes down to one state, let's say, wisconsin, he could win again. >> a few months ago, i would have said absolutely trump, i
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think it's 50-50. still ahead, our trump moment of the week and it's chilling. ♪ be right back. with moderate to severe crohn's disease, i was there, just not always where i needed to be. is she alright? i hope so. so i talked to my doctor about humira. i learned humira is for people who still have symptoms of crohn's disease after trying other medications. and the majority of people on humira saw significant symptom relief and many achieved remission in as little as 4 weeks. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b,
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♪ time for our trump moment of the week. this is the moment that sums up who our president is as a man and president and is. he wants to buy greenland. i didn't think you could buy chunks of the planet. i want to thank my guests tonight. that does it for us tonight. we'll be back next week at 8:00. you can follow us on all of the social media places. have a great week, everybody. ♪ ♪ applebee's handcrafted burgers now starting at $7.99. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood
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