my thanks to jonathan lemire, jon meacham, charlie sights. "mtp daily" with chuck todd starts now. welcome to a special holiday edition of "meet the press daily." i'm chuck todd here in washington where a block one of thor year waits us in 2020. i know what you're thinking, can you really top 2019? we better. not only are we anticipating a senate trial to remove the president from office but we're counting down for the fight in the first four when the first voters will have their say in the 2020 presidential election. for months we've seen democratic candidates in iowa, including some no longer in the race,
barnstorm the hawkeye state, introducing them to voters. >> hello iowa! >> he willo iowa! >> hello! >> hello iowa! >> after the iowa caucuses of course comes the new hampshire primary, then the nevada caucuses, and then the south carolina primary. all four fights are in february. and all four fights could decide the fate of the entire democratic primary. or they could set this contest on a past of total chaos and confusion. as axios noted earlier this month, the democrats say there is a scenario where pete buttigieg wins iowa, elizabeth warren wins new hampshire, bernie sanders wins nevada and joe biden wins south carolina. it's not implausible. michael bloomberg is all in on the super tuesday strategy so he isn't even factoring into all this just yet. all this hour we'll take an
in-depth look at those all-important early state contests. we'll look ahead to a general election match-up against the president with -- who else? there are four hurdles in order to sort of get democrats to understand the pieces of the electorate they need, whether it's midwesterners in iowa, learning how to do grassroots stuff, appealing to independents in new hampshire, the first time you get to do that in primary, latinos, an important constituency in nevada, african-americans in south carolina. when you think about these first four states, don't assume they're four states randomly on a map. there is reason to this randomness. ann henderson, the news director of news iowa, joins me. eugene scott from "the washington post," and msnbc contributor and former rnc
chairman michael steele. kay, first, let me delve into something about iowa that seems different this time, that is this desperation of the iowa democratic party to create a set of rules to appease national democrats and progressive democrats that this will be a much more open process, much more diverse process, and they've done so much with it, that it's possible we have two different winners on caucus night because they're going to track delegates and turnout. how confusing is all of this going to be? >> it may be very confusing. or there could be a really significant result if one of these candidates sort of sprints out ahead of the rest of the pack. there will be delegate decisions released first and then we'll see the raw vote totals. we'll see the raw vote totals from the first alignment where people go into parts of the room and support a candidate and a group. then we'll see this second raw
vote total if there is a realignment on a second round of voting. so actually, to complicate things more, there could be three victors. >> so you make gave us a third way to really confuse things on caucus night. >> congratulations. >> if you're a data nerd, we can do all sorts of analytics and all of that. >> exactly. >> we're in late december. and there's a new guy that no one ever heard of when this campaign started, mayor pete, who is ahead. you've done this for a while. pete buttigieg. is he howard dean or barack obama? >> we don't yet know that. but he's been laying the groundwork in iowa for quite some time. he was here 27 months ago for his first swing through the state. that's when he was trying to become the chairman of the democratic national committee. i've actually had some people who work on other campaigns say, gosh, we wish he were the chairman of the dnc, we wouldn't be dealing with him now. he's a prolific fundraiser.
he's been a great campaigner. but as you mentioned, you don't want to peak too early. so all eyes have been focused on one of iowa's neighbors, iowans like a neighbor, they liked barack obama, they liked dick gephardt. this time around they're looking at amy klobuchar. and she's visited each of iowa's 99 counties. >> you know what's funny about her, i had a bit of an '04 flashback with her, and the person in this role at this time was a guy named john edwards. while he wasn't a neighbor, he was sitting there where everybody said, we really like him but he hadn't bump yet, gets the "des moines register" endorsement, and had it not been for the dean scream, edwards/ r edwards/carey would have been
more of a fight. does klobuchar have that potential? >> i think in the debate earlier this month you saw that she did go up against mayor pete. she had more time because there were fewer candidates onstage to sort of present herself with that midwest sensibility, with a little bit of humor thrown in. that's really working for her on the campaign stage here in iowa. the other thing is she has been staffing up. she's been raising more money so she's able to hire more people. she's hired key people from the beto campaign. she's hired people to come in from other states. so i think she is the one to watch at this point. >> very quickly. impeachment, is it just sort of background noise, or does it have -- is it a motivating factor? or is it just sort of an "it is"? >> i think the real impact of impeachment on this race will
be, it could stall candidates like klobuchar and booker and warren who will be stuck in washington, d.c. at an impeachment trial. >> very quickly, on turnout, the highest turnout ever was in '08. pretty good turnout in '16, even, between bernie and clinton, that got to about 170. will this top '08, will this get to 250,000? >> it's hard to say that right now. i've been trying to pay attention to the voter registration numbers in iowa. and i don't see an uptick in voter registration yet. my suspicion is campaigns like a warren campaign and the buttigieg campaign have been out there identifying new voters, they're holding onto those voters and we'll see that result on caucus night. >> all right. kay henderson, can't wait to see you when we get out to iowa. won't be very long now. we'll just get this impeachment
trial out of the way and we'll get there. thank you very much. let me get the panel in here. eugene, you know, every four years people try to say, maybe iowa won't matter much this time. here we go again. the person that wins this first, whether it is biden, he shuts people down, or buttigieg, he shoots into the top tier, iowa will matter again. >> absolutely. midwestern voters matter, they always have. but they really matter when you have candidates competing for the white house whose brand is in part, i'm a midwesterner and that's what america needs right now, someone who is, you know, mild mannered and even tempered, who is a unifier and who can pay attention to people like them, give them the attention they need and let them know that you have solutions for their concerns. one thing that's interesting about iowa, there's been conversation about iowa not needing to be first because there's so much emphasis on
diversity in the democratic party and iowa is not the most diverse state compared to other states. i've done some reporting and read how many iowa voters actually are mindful of diversity issues and it pushes back on the idea that diversity is only a concern if you are a woman, if you are a person of color, if you're some kind of a minority. we're seeing white people in iowa saying, we want to get behind someone who can win. >> there is evidence that white democrats are more sensitive on non-white issues than non-white democrats. >> when it's topics like justice reform, you're seeing liberals in big cities addressing issues in ways that you would assume that black people workiare takie lead in and that's not what everything supports. >> is iowa playing the role that you had hoped as a democrat, so far? >> it is. and to the point you just made, there was a big "new york times" story that ran recently that
talked about how iowa caucus-goers are very mindful to make sure they're doing their part to pick someone who will do well in states that are not entirely white states but also someone who can a do well and potentially be the nominee for the entire democratic party. i do think in that sense iowa is doing its job there. also at the same time, i do think the person who wins iowa, because there has been such a mix in terms of front runners in this election primary so far, i think the person who wins iowa is going to really, really matter. to the point you just made, it will matter more than it did in 2016, possibly more so than it did in 2008. >> unless you get a 2016-like result that it's so close that two people can claim victory. >> i have a very contrarian view of things. >> good. >> i don't think iowa is as important as it used to be. i think it will play the role that a lot of people think it
will in this election cycle because of the external and internal dynamics politically, both inside and outside the democratic party. if iowans were so concerned about the diversity piece, then where is kamala harris, where is cory booker, where is julian castro? they're not even in the top five. so that dynamic for me, it's nice on paper and it's a good talking point for people to share, but at the end of the day, iowa voters will do what iowa voters do. i don't think it's dispositive of where this case will ultimately go. >> eugene, it's not lost on me that if you look at the democratic candidates who have become, it's been midwesterners and southerners, trying to be overly appealing, a bit nice or charming or whatever you want to call it, southerners play well in the midwest, midwesterners play well in these places and there's something about
buttigieg and klobuchar, and barack obama, he won every state but two that touched illinois. >> it's true, this is a very policy-rich debate and everyone has ideas and plans, and we're talking about it. at the end of the day there are voters who are measuring their support by, can i have a beer with you, can i get coffee with you. people in neighboring states tend to know how to connect to people who live around the corner. >> all right, guys. we'll take a break. we'll travel from iowa to the route we all have to do, take a nonstop to manchester. up next it's new hampshire. the granite state has a history of not agreeing with iowa and even a second place finish there can be a game changer like it was for bill clinton back in 1992. he did not win the new hampshire primary. but he won the new hampshire primary after he got trumped in the iowa caucuses. >> i think we know enough to say with some certainty that new hampshire tonight has made bill clinton the comeback kid.
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hello, new hampshire! >> hello, new hampshire! >> aloha, new hampshire! >> hello, new hampshire, great to be here. >> it is good to be back in new hampshire. >> it is so good to be here. >> here in new hampshire. >> welcome back. just eight days after the iowa caucus, new hampshire will take its place as the first in the nation primary. being from a neighboring state has spelled success for candidates from new hampshire in past primaries. this year both bernie sanders and elizabeth warren have those nearby advantages. as senator sanders knows well, success in the new hampshire primary does not mean a lock on the nomination. dante scala, happy quadrennial
primary season to you, sir. >> thank you, sir. >> so i have to admit, i think there are so many different scenarios of what could happen in new hampshire. and i want to run down a few of them by asking you some questions, which is this. first, just forget any -- who has the best natural constituency in new hampshire of the two neighbors, warren or sanders? >> i think right now it's bernie sanders. by virtue of being on the ballot four years ago, and also so far, i think sanders is showing a better job of attracting a coalition of voters in new hampshire, including young people still, progressive voters, and even some white working class voters who still vote with the democratic party, whereas elizabeth warren so far is in something of a box right now. she's found a niche among those
progressive, well-educated voters but she's having trouble breaking out of that. >> i'm curious, the rising number of residents, of former massachusetts residents that live in southern new hampshire in particular, is that a net positive for her or a net negative? >> i think that's a net negative. one group i'm watching closely are those voters in southern new hampshire, maybe half an hour from the massachusetts border. they live in affluent towns. oftentimes those towns lean republican in the general election. but they might be undeclared voters, they're two-income, college-educated families, and they will tend toward moderation. they may not like president trump at all but they're not going to be eager to vote for so-called radical progressive democrats. so they might be looking at one of those moderate democrats, whether it's biden, klobuchar,
or especially right now pete buttigieg. >> that brings me to the other unique test that new hampshire brings and why it's such a -- when you put it in as one of the first four hurdles you have to clear, it's a good one whether you're a republican or a democrat, and that is winning over independents, undeclared voter and possibly even republicans who decide on primary day to vote in the democratic primary. first, have you seen much evidence of campaigns actively trying to appeal to that group of voters, beyond just messaging but literally door contacts, looking for republicans for buttigieg or things like that? >> i haven't seen republicans for buttigieg, but you're certainly seeing mayor pete with a ground game that's been developing for months now. and keep in mind there is a republican primary. but no one expects it to be competitive. so i expect there is a very good chance that record turnout,
eclipsing 2008 totals in new hampshire, so there could be as many as 300,000 voters in the democratic primary next february. that's going to include -- >> in '08 we had two competitive primaries that did that. so you expect it even higher than '08? >> on the democratic side, yes, around 300,000. so there are a lot of voters who are going to show up who are just tuning in right now. and they could be eager to vote for the new kid on the block. and if pete buttigieg succeeds in iowa, he comes here with momentum, he could very well go two for two for the first two contests. >> so there's a fifth candidate in iowa that a lot of us think could pull this off, do the slingshot, pull the rick santorum, right, where they didn't campaign anywhere else but there, and that's amy
klobuchar. if she pulls that off, finishes first or second, gets that momentum, give me a sense of her operation there. will it be too little, too late? or could it super charge her to at least get in the top three if she pulls off an iowa upset? >> i think an iowa upset could yield klobuchar dividends in new hampshire. she's got a decent operation here which could translate, i think especially among former hillary clinton voters from 2016, you know, women who are in their 40s, 50s, i think they could find -- they voted for jeanne shaheen, they voted for maggie hassan, the two incumbent senators. they would find amy klobuchar a very nice fit for what they would like to see in the white house. >> look, i don't have a lot of time, but we've barely mentioned biden. you've noted he's not even advertising in new hampshire, he's got a finance issue, that
may be part of the problem, so he's focusing on iowa and south carolina. do you have a sense they know they're not winning in new. and that's why they have a light touch? >> i think it's the case that joe biden -- you know, john kerry endorsed joe biden a few weeks ago. i think biden will try to take a page out of kerry's playbook. you remember in 2004, kerry decamped, went to iowa, and came back and won new hampshire after surprising. i think biden hopes to do the same, win iowa or surprise in iowa, then come here and a lot of new hampshire democrats say, okay, i guess it's biden. >> dr. scala, you did exactly how i had hoped and then some. good to see you, sir, we'll be there soon, looking forward to it. >> sound good, sir, same here. up next, it's a little bit of a longer flight. we're going west. when it comes to the nevada caucuses, all bets are off. i'm happy to give you the tour, i love doing it.
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hello, nevada! >> hello, nevada! >> it is fantastic to be here with nevada democrats. >> nevada democrats! >> it's tremendous to be back here in nevada. >> it's good to be in nevada. >> the silver state. >> thank you, nevada. >> thank you, nevada. >> you've done a hell of a job here out in nevada. >> welcome back to this special
edition of "meet the press." we're looking ahead to the first four fights. after iowa and new hampshire comes nevada. don't say ne-vah-da unless you want to suffer the wrath of my next guest. neva nevada has a sizable his panic population. t john, good to see you. let me start this way. these caucuses, this is the third i guess competitive version of these now. does this feel like a statewide event right now? the last a couple of times it seems like it was getting its sea legs. do you feel like this is now a statewide contest? >> i think so, chuck. the democrats have put more and
more work into this each time but i still think there's some uncertainty about how it's going to go off, not just the uncertainty of the election itself, but they've added early voting this time, and they're trying to really juice the turnout. it's uncertain how many people are going to come out, how it's all going to work. but this is, as you know, chuck, one of the most well-oiled democratic machines in the country and they're pretty confident they can carry it off. >> look, i'm pretty confident, watching it the last couple of times at this point, i was skeptical at first, and it seems at each time smoother. harry reid has been sort of the godfather, the guy everybody has to visit, pay homage to. is he going to put his finger on the scale for anybody? >> it's a very good question. he keeps insisting he's not going to endorse before the caucus. but as you remember, chuck, when bernie sanders was running
against hillary clinton, he said the same thing, they were his colleagues, he likes them both. and then after bernie won in new hampshire and hillary clinton's lead started evaporating here, reid made a phone call to the culinary union, which as many of your viewers know is the most powerful force here in democratic politics, and did put his thumb on the scale behind the scenes, and that helped clinton hold on. and that could have been a serious problem for her if bernie had won here, gathering the momentum for new hampshire, as you know. >> who has made the most inroads with the culinary union? there's always the old school way of working a union, biden knows how to do that. i note grassroots in this union is younger, it's hispanic, and i'm going to guess sanders has some inroads in there. are they going to end up being split, the culinary union? >> it's another good question, chuck. and i think it's hard to tell. the culinary also likes to play
it almost as coy as harry reid, we're busy, we're doing contract negotiations, we've got other things going on. but they are now, this time, doing something that i don't recall them doing in the past, chuck, which is inviting each of the candidates to come in and do town halls with their members. of course the members are not sheep, they're not just going to follow what their leaders say to do. but the big issue for them, as you know, is medicare for all. the culinary has negotiated some of the best health care benefits in the country for its workers. there is a fear there about lubricatio losing their benefits under medicare for all. warren and sanders have had to make the case, don't worry, you won't lose your benefits, where is biden exploits that. whether it makes a difference in the election, it's still too early to tell, chuck. >> we haven't mentioned the
mayor. he's got a good presence in new hampshire, a really good presence in iowa. we know he's got money, i'm guessing he has a decent presence. his name hasn't rolled off your lips yet. >> are you talking about bernie sanders? >> really? is mayor buttigieg just not making an impression in nevada? >> actually i think those are the two most underrated candidates, chuck, both the mayor and bernie sanders. let me talk about the mayor first since that's who you asked me about. he has not done well in the polls here. we had a poll done for "the independent" about a month ago, it showed joe biden with a ten-point lead over warren and sanders and mayor pete is still in single digits. but, and this is a big "but," chuck, he has set up the infrastructure here. he has dozens of staffers. these been out here a lot to take advantage of any momentum
from iowa and new hampshire. that's going to be important because what happens in iowa and new hampshire is going to affect nevada. having said that, i think that bernie sanders may be an underrated force here, especially if he can do well again in new hampshire, coming here. you know, bernie sanders has these adherents and they're going nowhere else, chuck. they are fervently devoted to him. if he can win new hampshire, he has those folks here and he has more professionals running his operation here than he did before, some former harry reid acolytes are helping him. so i think both sanders and mayor pete, who are not showing up in the top two in most of the polls here, could do well here. and you mentioned the latino vote could be important for bernie sanders. >> and it could be a key to california next door. jon ralston, my friend, sorry
about your wolverines, i had to do it once, but i'm guessing you're loving your bills, so that's awesome. >> the bills are doing well. >> they sure are. >> thanks, chuck, happy holidays. >> you got it, you too, man. our upcoming nbc news debate will be hosted in las vegas in partnership with jon's organization, the wonderful news organization, "the nevada independent," that's february 19th. watch it right here, after the first two contests have actually taken place, a debate after results. up next, we're heading to south carolina, the end of the road in our fight for the first four. last time it was the end of the road for the man who many thought was going to be the republican party's nominee. >> south carolina is always full of surprises. they make up their mind late, and they do shape elections. so that's why we came here. the people of iowa and new hampshire and south carolina have spoken and i really respect their decision. so tonight i am suspending my
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we're going to do well in south carolina. >> south carolina. >> south carolina. >> south carolina. >> south carolina. >> south carolina. >> welcome back. south carolina will be the fourth primary contest of 2020 or fourth contest, second primary, but it will be the first state in the south to vote and the first state in which african-american voters will comprise the majority of that primary electorate. that will likely help former vice president joe biden who leads the democratic field by double digits among black voters according to recent polls. it could potentially also be a rough place for pete buttigieg who while he's leading in iowa, he's been struggling to win over black voters. the columbia bureau chief for "the courier" in south carolina, eugene scott, adrienne elrod, and michael steele are back as well. there's a part of me that thinks, boy, this race is never going to be that close, it's going to be impossible for them
to catch joe biden at the end of the day, there's just none of the other three major candidates here who have any kind of traction. ideal that conventional wisdom be wrong? >> well, joe biden's lead has been shrinking in south carolina over the year. essentially at one point he held a lead well into the 30s. it's now down to 7 according to the latest "courier" research poll. >> do you sense which other candidate is making inroads among african-americans, and if so, is it specific, is it by age that you're seeing a split? what splits are you seeing? >> essentially the african-american vote is still very solidly behind the former vice president at this point. with kamala harris getting out of the race, the biggest candidate among african-american
voters was elizabeth warren, she's third in our latest poll, neck and neck with bernie sanders who is also doing solidly with african-americans in south carolina at this point. >> organizationally, i know how much effort biden has put down there, if he's got spare time and it's not iowa, he tries to go to south carolina. who has a good organization and who in the top tier have you been surprised have not been so good there? >> in the top tier, warren, sanders, biden, they have good organizations. cory booker has a very solid organization here. pete buttigieg has been building a good organization here, a solid one at this point. he's playing catch-up, he hasn't been here as often as other candidates, but he's coming here more frequently and he's trying to build that support base as he's seeing success in the other early primary states. >> finally, is there any issue that's cutting through more than any other? >> health care remains the top issue among likely democratic
voters which is why i think sanders and warren have both been doing very solidly and have been eating into that lead with joe biden at this point. in fact it's interesting, if one of them were to drop out, they probably would surpass joe biden in support in south carolina based on what we're seeing with the polling. it's going to be interesting to see if that dynamic changes. >> that's interesting, that it can happen there, because that dynamic is different between the two of them depending on a state's electorate. andy shain, the other important part of south carolina is a chance for us to warm up after iowa and new hampshire, as long as we don't have too many weird cold fronts there. andy shain, thanks, much appreciated. aid rehe kn adrienne elrod, south carolina is joe biden's firewall. >> yes. i don't think he's going to lose
south carolina. >> he possibly ends up winning it bigger than we think and it's sort of like the way obama won it over hillary, it ends up almost not being relevant. >> hillary clinton won resoundingly in south carolina over bernie sanders. we were obviously very excited about that in the campaign because we had narrowly won iowa, we lost new hampshire, we barely one nevada and in south carolina we had a blowout. that moment carried us into super tuesday. that will are the interesting dynamic there because you also look at the fact that you're not going to have a clear front runner coming out of the first four states. you've got the first four taken care of. super tuesday, not trying to jump ahead here, but bloomberg is spending so much money, how are those dynamics going to come to pass? >> if buttigieg hits the mark in one of the first two, we're going to find out if he can do something. >> whether there's that obama thing, you know, you get love in
iowa, or new hampshire, and it sling shots you to south carolina. >> maybe. >> this is not that electorate. and he's not that candidate. as much as i like him and know him, i think that there are systemic issues in the black community relative to him that he hasn't overcome them by now, i just don't see that worm turning before south carolina. >> eugene, can anybody really make inroads with the african-american vote other than biden, of who we have left? bernie sanders hasn't had a great history winning over african-american voters. elizabeth warren hasn't ever really had to appeal to african-american voters. pete buttigieg has and we know how he's done. it feels like biden will be here by default. >> people can make inroads. can they replace biden? i don't think that's the case. i think what a lot of black voters are doing is making themselves more familiar with the candidate options they have, even if they're not going to back them.
what's really interesting is how early people have been talking about who they would like to see as vice president. before even some of the debates were happening, or who they even want to see in the cabinet. so we've seen people on the ground paying attention to candidates but are they going to be their first choice more than biden? probably not. >> if biden starts floating things like stacey abrams, does that come across as desperate, or is that a smart strategy? >> i think it depends on the timing and where. if you're a presidential candidate, especially if you're the frontrunner, you never want to make it seem like you've got to have a certain person for your vp to propel you forward and keep that frontrunner status, you have to be careful about that. you have to make sure you're not putting the cart before the horse. there were times during the campaign, the primary cycle, that we thought, oh, this person might be better as the vp but as
the primary played out we realized where our strengths and weaknesses were. the other factor, we didn't know who our republican nominee was going to be, this time around we do. >> michael, what will be the most of the -- which state matters to you more to see who can do a general election? >> south carolina. >> that's what you want to see? >> yeah, i want to see how you stir the pot in south carolina. i get the other states and i appreciate it, but south carolina speaks to a new truth that's going to be realized in this upcoming election, and that is the power, influence, and impact of the black vote, specifically black women. and if you cannot turn that corner with the black -- everybody says, oh, black men support donald trump. that's because they haven't had a conversation with the black female in the household. >> it's 10%. when you see that, oh, it's not 1%, it's 9%.
there's one quick wild card, charleston and the suburbs. they may start coming into a democratic primary. we just don't know if they will actually vote in the democratic primary. >> it's possible. suburbs are fascinating because suburbs nationally are so different. a lot of times when we talk about suburbs, as if they're just this homogenous community. >> they're not homogenous, they're different, it's a different makeup depending on the community. >> not at all. but people are really interesting in seeing what will happen there. >> adrienne, michael, eugene, this has been fun, i appreciate it. next, we can't do a campaign preview show without talking about november. i have the big board, i have kornacki, and another terrifying alternative snore. scenario. create your own ultimate feast
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relief and remission within reach. welcome back. we've ban playing a lot of what i ifs. steve kornacki is here with the big board. this is like two guys that own the same car, and we fight, i'm backing off, man. the steering wheel is yours here. here we are, you've set up the 2016 map. if we start touching things, we can start making some magic here. >> what's going to change in 2020. >> so the big three from 2016,
pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, are you ready to take any of them out of trump's column? >> to show folks, if you did that, if you gave the democrats all three, because remember, the margin was just 75,000 votes across all three, that's all to. you do that, that's it. >> so there you are. let's do that for a second here. what would trump do? he couldn't do this. he needs to find -- what does he need to find? 10 electoral votes. >> yeah. >> where is he going to find ten? one easy place to find 10. >> he's looking in minnesota. but the thing is if the democrats are flipping wisconsin, pennsylvania and michigan, i don't think he's flipping minnesota. >> but of these big three, there's one we're not so confident in for the democrats and one we're not so confident in for trump. >> i think that's fair. >> i would argue, michigan, wisconsin. >> exactly. let's say the democrats do get michigan, but wisconsin, remember, democrats barely, i mean pabarely won that governor
race. there it is. >> here we are. look at that. so trump would get there. >> yeah. >> that's what's scary for the democrats. of the three that he swept, if he holds everything, loses michigan and pennsylvania, he gets there. now, there are other won electoral votes. let's not forget nebraska. let's show what would happen if that one omaha district goes democratic. >> clinton only lost this by two points. >> so the likelihood of this is probably a 50-50 coin flip. >> now you've got 269-269. you think our politics can't handle impeachment and the first four? throw 269-269 at the end of the calendar year. >> and we go to the house of representatives and it's done state by state. california with 50 some members, one vote. north dakota, one vote. >> we'll be waiting for recounts in arizona and north carolina to see who controls that delegation. >> yeah, because it's the new congress, the new house that
gets elected in 2020 that would vote to break the tie in a presidential election. >> there are other paths for the democrats. >> right. >> they seem to have more than trump has. >> yes. >> explain. >> part of that is if you look at how trump won, he got all the breaks in 2016. the closest states broke toward him by and large. that's one of the reasons there's more upside for dems. we talked about the second congressional district. the one after that is arizona. arizona suburban phoenix, democrats had a big breakthrough there in 2018. the margin here in 2016 was 3.5 points. you've seen an evolution in arizona. i think for a while now suburban toward the democrats, certainly away from trump. arizona 11 electoral votes, that is a prime target. >> if we go back to the '16 map, how fast can we whip the '16 map here. i want to show people where we are when it comes to where we were. so if you take the '16 map and talk about the importance of arizona. >> there we go, we got it.
>> just put arizona in the blue and add pennsylvania, and michigan. >> pennsylvania gets to 263. michigan if you're democrat puts you over the top. >> and that's the thing here. democrats believe they can cede wisconsin. >> you can trade that for that. >> and they actually net one on that. look, they like georgia. we know florida is going to be whatever. georgia if you look at the governor's race, that was about a point and a half in 2016. we always overlook north carolina. >> three points. >> so there is this -- we look at what trump did. there is a electoral landslide scenario for the democrats if they catch every break, isn't there? >> you can say point and a half in florida, that's probably the hardest point and a half in politics. >> let's say a democrat got 54% nationally. >> you're over 300. that's not even giving them wiscons wisconsin. >> in a scenario like that, you're probably with wisconsin. >> throw in north carolina, these are big states here.
>> go georgia. >> now you're up to nearly 350. that district in nebraska too. >> what if we had 1980 in reverse? >> here you go. >> what happens in that one? >> if the democrats ever flipped texas in 2020, i mean now you're at a level of -- >> that's probably -- >> that's higher than obama 2008. >> the best case scenario with president trump probably having huge problems and a democratic nominee being well liked. >> that's the bottom falls out plus adds in the second district of nebraska and that's probably the max out point right there. >> there it is. >> absolute max out point. >> and we did a trump max out point. >> yeah. >> we got him up to 330 without winning the popular vote. >> that's right. because again, point and a half in minnesota, less than a point in new hampshire, a couple points up in maine and couple points in nevada. you're up to 330. >> if he can grab 20 plus electoral votes and still lose by 3 million votes.
good evening and welcome to a holiday edition of "the beat." we have some very special things planned for you tonight. americans have been leaning into the holiday, stepping back from a year where donald trump's actions certainly caught up with him, facing a december impeachment and existential crisis for the trump presidency after a news year consumed by his mistakes and scandals. >> i'm announcing the house of representatives moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry. >> they are under fire from all sides for this whistle-blower complaint. >> what