tv Up W Steve Kornacki MSNBC August 10, 2013 8:00am-10:00am EDT
government shutdown back on the horizon, brought to you by the tea party. members of congress return to their districts this week to report back to their constituents. republicans in particular even hard line conservative republicans got an earful from their base. take robert pit tin jer, a republican from north carolina. he should be the poster child for obama era conservatism in the house. he won a seat last year and already put his name on over a dozen bills to repeal parts or
all of president obama's signature health care law. but when pittinger faced the locals at a town hall monday, he found himself confronted by tea party conservatives who demanded to know if he'd vote against any federal spending bill to implement obama care, even if that means shutting down the entire federal government. >> real quick easy question, this is what the tea party wants to know, will you vote with mike lee and meadows here to defund obama care? yes or no. [ applause ] >> a thoughtful answer? >> i want yes or no. >> no. >> that answer, as you can see, did not go over well. the crowd began pushing back against pittenger who said even if it passed the house, it would never pass the democratic senate and would never be signed by
president obama. that only enraged the crowd even more. >> will you make a stand to get them back on board. >> do you think hair harry reid is going to pass it. >> it doesn't matter. we need to shoe show the american people we stand for conservative values -- [ applause ] >> pittenger is not the only republican catching heat. senate minority leader mitch mcconnell is himself facing a primary challenge next year in matt bevin. he used what amounted to his campaign kickoff speech in kentucky to bash mcconnell for not signing up for the shutdown threat. >> stop talking about yanking it out root and branch and start voting in the u.s. senate by defunding it. stand with senator mike lee. be a man, stand up and put your money where your mouth is! >> the pressure on mcconnell and
pittenger and others are coming from those like marco rubio who said this on monday. >> i'm not attacking anyone directly. all i'm saying is you cannot say you are against obama care if you're willing to go for a law that funds it. if you're willing to fund this thing, you can't possibly say you're against it. >> there's at least one big-name republican urging caution. the party may not be exactly be interested in what he has to say anymore. that would be mitt romney slowly returning to the plight cat scene speaking tuesday at a state gop fund-raiser in new hampshire, he said, quote, i badly want obama care to go away. stripping it of funds has appeal. but we need to exercise great care about any talk of shutting down the government. i'm afraid in the final analysis obama care would get funding, are our party would suffer in the next elections and our people would not be happy. i want to bring in christina bell tony, nick october chela. nick, that doesn't do your
career justice. i've known you for about ten years in my new jersey days. you were with espn, had a very interesting career. welcome back. msnbc contributor perry bacon junior, the political editor of our sister site, the agree i don't.com, democratic representative jerry nadler of new york who needs no introduction, a regular on the show. christina, let me start with you. tell me if i'm wrong on this. a few weeks ago the idea started getting circulation. i noticed john mccain and a number of other republicans came out and seemed to bat it down. i thought, okay, that's not going to happen. i'm watching that town hall we've just showed in north carolina and this has happened in other town halls across the country where republicans are being confronted with very angry and demanding crowds saying this is the litmus test of whether you're a true republican. i'm wondering if they're not going to come back from their recess spooked by this and saying this is something we have to do, whether we want to or not. >> i don't know why anyone would want to be a member of congress right now.
this is such a tough position to be in, right? you've had this continual crisis gove governing. they know it may not pass the democratic senate like that congressman said. mitt romney, the realist is saying probably would would happen. you might have this vote, you get blamed for it, republicans get in trouble and you're not going to defund it anyone because you have divided government. democrats are laughing at this divide. it puts the country in a difficult position of waiting to see what's going to happen again with no real funding for the government in place. >> congressman, you're going to have to deal with the consequences when you guys all come back next month. you represent the west side of manhattan. i'm sure you're being deluged with tea party members at your town halls telling you to defund obama care. what do you expect the consequences will be when you reconvene next month? >> i'm very worried that the republicans will force a government shutdown, not so much over this. they may or may not be crazy
enough to force a government shutdown over this. the fact is, they can't agree among themselves, never mind with the democrats, on funding the government. we had a bill on the floor to fund the departments of the treasury and hud, housing and urban development, and the bill had draconian -- transportation, not treasury. >> this was the thud hill. >> yes, transportation and hud. draconian cuts, 50% cut. 50% in community development block grants. less than president ford allocated when he first started. 30% cut for amtrak, 30% cuts for transportation. ridiculous. a number of republicans could not vote for it because no suburban republican can go home and say i voted to raise the fares on long island railroad or new jersey transit, which is what this would do. some republicans voted against it because it wasn't bad enough. they couldn't get a vote. they had to pull the bill off
the floor. the senate bill -- the senate counterpart bill was far more generous, was a reasonable bill in my opinion, a democratic bill with senator collins of maine, and they filibustered and killed that because it was too generous. i don't know how republicans can agree with themselves, never mind the democrats, on the bills to fund the government past september 30th. >> that's right. it is a bigger issue here than just whether the implementation of the affordable care passes, basic spending bills to fund the government, that's also a question mark. i want to stay on that point about the affordable care act. president obama had a press conference yesterday and addressed these republicans threats to shut down. i want to play what he had to say. >> i think the really interesting question is why it is that my friends in the other party have made the idea of preventing these people from getting health care their holy grail, their number one
priority, the one unifying principle in the republican party at the moment is making sure that 30 million people don't have health care. >> so perry, there are some republicans who see the potential political disaster that would come from actually forcing a shutdown. they can remember 1995, bill clinton, newt gingrich, that shutdown. that's two decades ago. i wonder how many republicans in congress have a working memory of that. there seems to clearly be a divide in the republican party right now with some warning about this and some, what we've seen in the town halls this week, how does that get resolved. how can the john mccains of the party actually convince the pittengers of the party -- >> if you talk to heritage action, one of the big activist groups of the right, they say they misremember the 1990s. in fact, the republicans want control even after the shutdown. it wasn't that bad. why is it a problem? that's part of what they're
hearing. if you look at the mike lee letter that says we should defund obama care, there are 15 senators that signed it two weeks ago. even though mitch mcconnell has a lot of pressure, it still hasn't pushed him. in fact, right now eric cantor last night talked to national review and said i don't think a shutdown is the way to approach this in terms of defunding obama care. we don't have enough votes in the senate yet. eric cantor is usually pretty aware of where the republicans and the caucus are. i think there are republicans, not even just the john mccains, but pretty conservative people who are saying this is not a great idea. >> let me just say one comment there. there are some sane republicans, yes. but i think there's a great difference, which is very interesting, from what happened 18 years ago. the big political struggle during that shutdown was who is to blame? is it president clinton's fault
we had a government shutdown? is it the republicans' fault? whoever's fault it is, it's terrible and we're going to exact political price from them. no one was claiming we wanted it. here you've got republicans saying we want a shutdown, we want a shutdown. if there is a shutdown, republicans are going to get blamed because they're saying they want it. nobody in the public is going to like that. >> the definition of what that means now in today's politics, in today's congress is somebody who is not willing to shutdown the government over implementation of a law that was passed upheld by the supreme court and validated by the voters in the election. that's the new definition of what political sanity is? >> the older i get, the less i understand. this started -- obama care started as a republican initiative. that's not a democratic initiative. democrats would prefer something like a single-payer system. individual responsibility is
supposed to be republican mantra. well, that's what you got and they're against it. i don't know why they're against it. but there you go. i don't understand a lot of things anymore. the whole republican party, it seems to me, why are we surprised about this? these are the people who wanted to drown the federal government in the bathtub. i'm really not surprised. >> let's look at the other piece. we asked where the lead should could come from on the republican side to call off the hounds on this. you would look to maybe john boehner the house. that won't amount to much. mitch mcconnell in the senate -- i think there was a telling exchange this week, you probably saw this. this is jesse benton. this was rand paul's campaign manager. i think this is a rand paul family in law, as close as you get to ron paul, managing mitch mcconnell's re-election campaign and was secretly taped talking about mitch mcconnell. this is what he had to say. >> between you and me, i'm holding my nose for two years
[ inaudible ] that's my long vision. >> he says he's holding his nose, managing mitch mcconnell's re-election campaign in kentucky. they tried to make light of it. this was the picture, you might have seen this this week. mitch mcconnell and him holding his nose. it seems like jesse benton could say anything he wants about mitch mcconnell and he won't get fired because he needs the rand paul people. >> if you're looking for leadership, you won't get it for any senator who is up for re-election next year. that applies to the entire house of representatives, they're all scared. i don't know where the leadership is going to come from. in new jersey we know every conversation is recorded. >> that's right. it's not an activist from iowa on the other end of the wire. >> you have to be very, very careful. >> what's interesting about this exchange is that's what people assumed anyway when jesse benton was hired. mcconnell has been very, very
strategic knowing he was facing a tough re-election fight. people always want to challenge the leader of the party, no matter what statement they're from. he made all these smart hires. everybody assumed that's what he's doing. now you have him on tape saying that. at the same time, jesse is not going anywhere, he is a fairly smart political operative that's run races there and can't investigated a lot of different people in the republican party. he knows exactly what he's doing. he's been very deliberate about his moves. >> so fascinating with mcconnell because i can't remember seeing a sitting senator bs especially somebody in leadership, who has the dual challenges of you have to survive a serious primary challenge and the general election challenge is just as serious. any move you make to help you in one, hurts you in the other. i can't see how he can do anything except cater to the tea party. lord knows what that's going to mean. fried butter on a stick, a busy saturday in ames, iowa, we'll have a live report after this. into a business.
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day three of the iowa state fair is up der way in ames this morning. across town republican politicians and activists are gathering for a summit hosted by the family leader, perhaps the most powerful in the first of the nation caucus state. senator ted cruz of texas, steve king of iowa, 2012 presidential candidate rick santorum and yes, donald trump. i guarantee he's not running for president. let's ignore that. it's early. the 2016 race is under way. much more on the republican side than the democratic side. we'll talk about that more in saechblthd first i want to bring in msnbc's kasey hunt at the family summit in ames, iowa. we can see the crowd has yet to fill up. very early out there, probably a time zone change.
tell us who is going to be there today. we gave us a few names. what are we expecting to hear from them? >> steve, you hit on the major names coming here on the 2016 hopefuls or potential 2016 hopefuls, you donald trump, rick santorum who eked out a victory over mitt romney in 2012. but in some ways what's notable are the names that aren't yet coming out here. there was a long list of republicans who were invited but who are not actually speaking this year. rick perry, governor of texas, bobby jindal, governor of louisiana, senator marco rubio from florida. there are banner names who are likely to pop up on the republican side who haven't yet arrived in iowa. also senator ted cruz will be here. what we will be hearing from cruz, santorum, those who do come is a focus on family leaders core messages and
values, they are anti-abortion, sort of the evangelical cadre of the republican party here in iowa. that's the audience that they're going to be speaking to today on stage. >> all right, kasie, in another part of the state yesterday there was an event called madam president that emily's list, the group that supports final maim democratic candidates for office. this was called the first hillary 2016 was not there. senator claire mccaskill who has already endorsed her was there. tell us what went on there yesterday. >> mccaskill was acting as though she was a surrogate for a hillary clinton presidential campaign. i spoke to her after the event. that was really focused on, in fact, being a counter point to this event we're seeing here today. emily's list organizers wanted to make sure there was a contrast between what we're going to see on stage today, which is largely men and who are focused on issues that emily's
list in particular disagrees with. they wanted to make sure that they were showing that there's already discussion of a potential female president. while hillary was the focus of it, there was discussion that other women could be leader in the democratic party going forward. senator amy klobuchar, elizabeth warren, wendy davis in texas. a lot of names thrown out yesterday. >> a want to thank kasie hunt reporting live from ames, iowa. thanks for joining ut. i am really jealous of kasie. i've never attended the iowa state fair. we said fried butter. the massachusetts state fair does not compare to the kind of food you can get up there. i'm jealous she's getting to sample that this weekend. let's talk about the republican race taking shape here. it's a lot more active than what's happening on the democratic side.
in particular, ted cruz is going to be at this event in iowa today. the head of the group family leader that runs this, bob vannederplats. his claim to fame he was with mike huck key and he won the state. he was with rick santorum who won the state. 60% will be evangelical christians. this is ground zero for evangelical christians in iowa. he said about ted cruz, he's never seen anything like it before, like the appeal of ted cruz. i'm wondering what you make of the phenomenon, perry. >> i'm not surprised by it. one of my views about this, the republicans are looking someone on their ticket who is not a white guy. there's going to be somebody on the ticket that's not a white guy. the fact that rubio has gone down in terps of the immigration
issue, they're looking for somebody else. cruz is a pretty charismatic guy. he went to iowa and had a couple one-on-one meetings and met with vannederplat. i'm not surprised there's a cruz boom, there's a search for a latino candidate on the republican side and cruz has done a very good job of capturing that. he's against the comprehensive immigration bill. >> he's against everything. >> a very good job of cultivating that part of the party. this is a moment where he can, like obama, cruz is new to the senate but the moment might be there and why not jump in and take it. >> we were talking about where the pressure is coming on mitch mcconnell and john boehner and republicans who might have instincts to resist like a shutdown. it's coming from people like ted cruz. he gave an interview to tom cruise. i thought it was interesting because i hear this argument to justify far right etiology.
when the republican party has nominated a moderate, it loses. when it no, ma'am naelts a conservative, i wins. it's such a narrow reading of history because it leaves out 49 years ago when they nominated barry goldwater and he lost about every state in the country. >> he would be a liberal in today's republican party. >> they nominated ronald reagan in 1980. if he wasn't running with double digit inflation, double digit inflation rates, the iran hostage crisis, i'm not sure he wins in 1980. i look at what ted cruz is saying and get the basic power of that to the republican base. the power of purity. i see how that's helping him politically hurting the republican party nationally. >> ronald reagan would run out of the republican party. ted cruz not only wants to shut down the government. he wants to keep it shut down. i think he's using the obama model, as perry said. i think he's -- why build up a record that can then be used against you. run as soon as you have the opportunity. i think that's what's happening.
>> and go back even to the convention. he was one of the best-received speakers on the floor at the republican national convention. he has this style, this sort of preacher-like cadence. he wears the face mic or whatever like he is madonna. he does have a lot of that charisma. it goes back to what we were talking about in the last segment with the government shutdown idea. he's not well liked among the senate. he's well liked among the people he's talking to in early presidential states. mitch mcconnell, not a friend to this guy. a lot of these people that try to get deals done, the john mccains of the republican party don't like him and that creates this tense environment. >> so far we've likened him to madonna and president obama. i wonder, not being able to get a deal done in the senate, not being cooperative with mitch mcconnell, it seems like that's almost a badge of honor for a republican. >> i think it's very interesting that you've really got two
different groups for whom that's a badge of honor now. two different groups that think mitch mcconnell is a sellout. ted cruz personifies one of them. this is just far right off the wall, wackiness, and sort of neocon foreign policy. but then you've got rand paul and company. they're just as wacky, off the wall on everything else. but on foreign policy they're a throwback to the robert taft pre world war ii isolationists wi w we haven't seen who didn't want to deal with the rest of the world and was fine with hitler taking over europe. they didn't want that, but they didn't think we should do anything to prevent it. that went into eclipse because of pearl harbor because of world war ii and anti-communist and the cold war. russia, we don't like these days, china we don't like. but they're not communists. so the isolationism is
reasserting itself and although rand paul on any domestic issue is going to be very similar to ted cruz on foreign policy, he's going to be much more similar to the extreme left wing of the democratic party. >> speaking of rand paul who is not going to be at this event today in iowa, but i think his presence will be felt, there was one of our colleagues here at msnbc had an interesting prediction about rand paul this week. >> obama won in 2008 over hillary clinton because the opponents of the iraq war had had it with the party leaders who played it safe and backed the war. i believe the republican base will do the same in 2016. they put up with george bush i, put up with bob dole. deeply disappointed by george w., disappointed with mitt romney. will now come loaded for bear for 2016. i predict the hard right will take over the republican party in 2016 and the nomination is going to rand paul. you watch. this is what i do for a living.
>> well, i kind of doing it for a living. i get predictions wrong, too. i love he went out on a limb there. i guess i don't quite see it with rand paul for a couple of reasons. one of them i look at is we're talking about ted cruz, talking about rand paul, scott walker. there's going to be so much territory that's occupied by all sorts of different candidates on the right, i almost wonder if that's a perfect setup for the establishment candidate who seems to win these things. >> in the last six iowa caucuses, the winner has won the nomination twice. it's not a path to the nomination, santorum, huckabee, et cetera. also the moderate candidate or the mitt romney won last time, john mccain before that, this candidate tends to win the primary. chris christie, marco rubio, paul ryan. i think someone in that area is more likely to win the nomination. even in the republican primary, california has more votes than iowa does. you have to think about that. a moderate candidate can do
well. rand paul, he talked about he doesn't support the civil rights act, doesn't believe in the minimum wage. i just don't see rand paul -- >> most republicans don't believe -- >> he had this aide who co-wrote his book in 2010, the south even event jer. there was an interview on npr with john harwood and rand paul, i don't think he handled it well at all. it's bad enough if you're associated with a neo confederate, but you should be able to handle the question about it. >> those are all the things that will bring out democrats against him. he does connect with a lot of republicans. if he can do better than his father did among some of the younger generation, get these people to show up to vote, he could have a chance. >> there's one thing that will give him a huge problem on the right among the evangelical christians. the evangelical christians are very large in iowa, large in republican primaries, very strong supporters of american aid to israel and israeli
security. rand paul doesn't care about that. he's made very clear among his other isolationist tendencies that he would abandon israel in every way conceivable. i think that will present a problem for him among the evangelical base of the republican party. >> maybe one generation at least from a break through. we'll see. it is early. stop calling chris christie a moderate. he is not one, i swear, and i can prove it. that's ahead. look at walmart's price. wow. that's great. now all your back to school meals are covered. thank you. ok, ready? what?! that's the walmart low price guarantee backed by ad match. save time and money getting your kids ready for school. bring in receipts from your local stores and see for yourself. save more this back to school packing kid friendly and tasty lunches with low prices on velveeta slices, kool-aid jammers 10 packs and jif creamy peanut butter. with our low price guarantee backed by ad match. you will lose 3 sets of keys 4 cell phones 7 socks and 6 weeks of sleep
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could never win the republican presidential nomination, another rudy giuliani. perception is not always reality. >> i believe that the institution of marriage as it's traditionally known is between one man and one woman. >> they said it was impossible to touch the third rail of politics, to take on the public sector unions. >> i'm pro life, i believe in exceptions in rape, incest or life of the mother. that's my position. take it or leave it. >> we were talking about what's going on in iowa, chris christie will be nowhere near of iowa. he's running for re-election of a blue state. i've been hearing and watching this conventional wisdom take hold about chris christie the moderate republican. i'm not buying it. i'm thinking he's the democrat's worst nightmare if he wins this nomination. i remember seeing this -- i used to cover new jersey because i'm biased when it comes to christie. i remember thinking to myself, if he could ever get the
spotlight, i didn't think it would be like this. i remember thinking to myself, with that personality, if he can get the national spotlight, interesting things would start to happen, the most interesting thing about him was he was in the blue state and against abortion. that's the litmus test, the fundamental litmus test for republicans and he passes it. >> in a state that doesn't matter. it's not like he'll be presented with a bill like virginia, texas, south carolina, so it allows him to have those positions. it's not even the first it right position. in addition to that, i did a story on female tea party activists in 2010. i was in minnesota and nebraska, they all brought up his name saying they loved he took on the unions. at the same time, democrats saying he's the best candidate to go up against hillary clinton, i heard a lot of that about rudy giuliani. not that they're similar in politics, but that this is the guy that can beat the democrats.
republicans don't vote that way in primaries. >> here is the rudy comparisons. what i would take issue with is, first of all, rudy had the pro choice background, rudy had been very, very liberal on gay rights and immigration. christie has a little baggage at least within the republican universe on immigration. i also look at the rudy giuliani who ran for president in 2007 was like comatose. they were so scared of angry rudy showing up and yelling at people or saying something too liberal. i look at christie, christie is not going to have that problem, he might have the other problem where he says way too much and lord knows what will happen. christie has the personality where people want to give him -- republicans want to give him the benefit of the doubt. >> you know this guy better than anybody. where do you peg him? >> it depends on what you mean by moderate anymore. we're playing games with this. the republican party has moved so far to the right, he may be a moderate in the modern republican party, but i'm not sure any of that matters. i think a lot of politics about
personality and stack up any of those guys that you're talking nabt the last segment against chris christie and he's going to win, personality. >> i think he's clearly no moderate. you can go down a list of positions and he's very right wing on them. but he has a number of positions where he appears somewhat moderate, and although he's not really. he has nuance positions on some things like gun control, like immigration, and i think those are enough -- those may be enough to really hurt him in the republican primary. >> when he appointed a muslim judge, and some of the people in the republican party, a pretty moderate party, got very upset about this and started ranting about sharia law. he said i'm tired of dealing with the crazies. >> new jersey republican party is pretty moderate. you mentioned, congressman, gun control. there are bills on his desk right now. he signed a couple of gun control measures the other day. he did not take action on
measures that are opposed by the nra. they're sitting on his desk right now. one would have firearms permits printed on your driver's license, another would be mandatory safety training course, background checks for private sales of guns. these are all issues that the gun crowd will go crazy about if he signs, but also roun runing in 2013, perry, it would be good politics to sign. >> you say abortion is one litmus test. gun control is certainly the other in the republican party. it's a long way from the election, so i'm not going to say it will hurt him permanently. signing a gun control bill in this plate pl kalt environment, particularly when president obama talked about it so much this year, will be a very dangerous thing. i think that's one of the challenges. look at him more broadly. he had the right tone for the republican party. the republican party whantsz someone aggressive, the government wastes money, he has the right personality. i think he could have won the nomination in 2012 if you think about it. it's hard to say he's too
moderate for a party that was begging for him to run two years ago. in some ways, mitt romney, why he's a pretty viable candidate. >> this is why i think he's dangerous for democrats. the problem mitt romney ran into in 2012 is he got pegged as a top 1% guy running on a top 1% message. chris christie has the appeal of a 99 percenter. the platform would be top 1%, he could sell it in a way that mitt romney couldn't. >> he's a middle class guy with middle class values. that's the image he projects and wants to project. does it ultimately play? i don't know. >> he's a very charismatic guy. he's not stiff. romney is hard to talk to. chris christie can be funny, can be b caustic. he will not be boring like mitt romney. >> in 2012 so many former lawmakers, former governors, their tenure was somewhere in the past.
this is someone running on his record today. >> we have to end it here. i'm sorry. i want to thank you, congressman jerry nadler from new york for joining us. arkansas was once a democratic stronghold. it kind of isn't right now. more on that next. and when your hot dog's kosher, that's a hot dog you can trust. hebrew national. that's a hot dog you can trust. "stubborn love" by the lumineers did you i did. email? so what did you think of the house? did you see the school ratings? oh, you're right. hey babe, i got to go. bye daddy! have a good day at school, ok? ...but what about when my parents visit? ok. i just love this one... and it's next to a park. i love it. i love it too. here's our new house... daddy! you're not just looking for a house. you're looking for a place for your life to happen. ♪
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we like being in business because we like being creative, we like interacting with people. so you have time to focus on the things you love. ink from chase. so you can. it's the middle of august. the weather is beautiful. the pennant races are starting to heat up. i think i know exactly what you're thinking about right now, the 2014 u.s. senate race in arkansas. okay. maybe not. there probably aren't even people in arkansas who are thinking about that right now. come on. the first game of the college football season is three weeks from today. august 31st, historic razorback stadium in fayetteville. arkansas playing host to the louisiana lafayette raging cajuns. the 2014 arkansas senate race is not on many people's minds right now. there was still some pretty important news that happened there this week. that news is republicans have a
candidate. tom cotton is his name. he's a very conservative freshman republican congressman. he's 36 years old. he has two degrees from harvard, served in iraq and afghanistan. now he's going to run for the senate against the democratic incumbent mark pryor. why is this important? because this is a race that republicans absolutely have to win if they're going to take back the senate next year. right now democrats hold a 54-46 advantage in the chamber. that advantage is going to grow to 55-45 when cory booker is elected in new jersey, barring an act of god. that means republicans will need a net gain of 26 seats in 2014. you don't get much riper than arkansas. this is a state that voted for mitt romney by 24 points. there is no democratic incumbent running in 2014 who will face a more obama-phobic electorate. a poll at the end of july had both good news and bad news for
the incumbent pryor. the good news, he was ahead of cotton by eight points. the bad news, his support was just 43%, well under 50% which is a very dangerous place for any incumbent to be, especially an incumbent democrat in a state like arkansas. pryor could hang on, but this is definitely a winnable race for republicans, especially now that they have the candidate they want. there's something bigger going on here. we are watching a state that not long ago was one of the bluest in the country transforming into a republican bastian before our eyes. part of this has to do with a familiar story. you know it, the steady decades-long shift of white voters in the states of the old confederacy, away from the republican party and into the republican fold. it started during the civil rights movement and has created today the most deeply and reliably republican region in america. the story is more complicated in arkansas. since 1964 it has voted for more
republican presidential candidates than democrats. but it also gave us bill clinton, still has a democratic governor today. since reconstruction, only a grand total of three republican governors. as recently as three years ago three of the four house members and both u.s. senators from the state were democrats. arkansas didn't vote for barack obama in 2008. if hillary clinton, that's former arkansas first lady arkansas hillary clinton had been the democratic nominee, there's a good chance she would have carried the state. arkansas is not tom state like this. it's representative of a very specific area of the country, a cluster of rural states around apalacha and the ozarks, states that did not abandon the party with the same ferocity as the deep south. you've got arkansas, missouri, kentucky, tennessee, west virginia, even louisiana. these are states that al gore had a chance to win in 2000. if he had won just one of them, it would have made him
president. they weren't that far gone for john kerry in 2004. his campaign thought it could win west virginia when that race started. in the obama era, these states have swung hard to the gop. take arkansas. kerry lost it by only nine points in 2004. four years later, obama was swamped by 20 points against john mccain. in the 2010 midterms, democratic senator blanche lincoln lost by 21 points, one of the worst showings for any incumbent senator anywhere ever. in the same year, 2010, republicans won three of the state's four congressional seats. that was the first time in history they did that. last year they turned around and made it a clean sweep. there are a couple of forces at work here. some of it is demographic, older voters who grew up when these states were democratic bastions are dieing off. some is cultural, too. it's hard to believe race isn't playing a real role as well. the question, though, is how far gone arkansas and states like it
are from democrats. states that clinton carried twice in '90s. to keep winning national elections when the president is no longer on the ballot. what if the next democratic nominee is able to win back some of those old clinton coalition states? to win back a state like arkansas. this sounds like a long tease for a segment on the clintons. it kind of is. guilty as charged. bill is getting a presidential medal of freedom, hillary is -- we'll talk about that after this. i'm tony siragusa and i'm training guys who leak a little,
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let's talk all things clinton here, because the clintons were in the news a lot this week. first i want to bring in crystal ball joining us, the co-host of msnbc's -- what's the show called? >> it's called "the cycle" on at 3:00 p.m. eastern time weekdays. you should catch it sometime. >> it must be new.
i'll update the dvr at home. welcome crystal ball. the big news with the clintons obviously was the movie that's going to be on nbc apparently. we stress the wall between nbc entertainment and msnbc. cnn doing a documentary on hillary clinton. the twist that broke overnight, "the new york times" has a report that says the company that actually produces this hillary clinton movie may actually be fox entertainment. this whole idea that the republican national committee threatening to withhold debates from cnn and msnbc because they're associated with this demon clinton film, it may be produced by fox, ps. we have that. >> it is after all a business. people do what they have to do in business. >> if i was hillary clinton, i would be very nervous and uncomfortable. you know how careful the clintons are about managing their image and nobody more than hillary clinton. here is something you have no control over. she also wants to emphasize certain parts of her resume, her
time as secretary of state in particular and not be thought of so much as the first lady. i think that, even in and of itself is an issue for her. >> that's what i wonder when i think about this. i wonder two things. first of all, these movies, when they do these made-for-tv bio pics are almost always crap. >> you might look at the most popular figure not just in the democratic party right now, but also worldwide. she's got all this global respect. of course you'll make a movie about her. it's not the first and won't be the last. >> why not pretend he's outraged, i'm going to cancel a debate. he wanted to do that anyway. a very brilliant move on his part to lower the number. the debates were an embarrassment for them last time. the debates themselves are not
useful for the republican party. that may be a good strategy, whatever this movie is about. >> if he eliminates nbc and now maybe fox, where is he going to go? >> netflix. >> youtube. >> i want to make sure to get my obscure 1979 political reference in somewhere in the show. i'm going to do it here. here is what i thought of where this could be a glowing portrait of hillary clinton that could make republicans mad. krystal, the other side is the clintons may not be happy with this. when ted kennedy got into the presidential race for 1980, he was about to get in and cbs rushed, before equal time rules came into effect, they wanted to do a prime time special on ted kennedy. it was just ted kennedy because of the kennedy name. this is where roger mudd, got the exclusive interview with ted kennedy and asked him a simple question, why do you want to be president? he could not answer the question. his campaign was derailed before
it even started. when this thing was announced, the republicans were screaming and the carter white house was screaming this was preferential treatment for the kennedys. the clintons may not be happy with it. it may just be a terrible movie. >> how much will they emphasize the fact that she spent $62 million to blow the democratic nomination -- >> you've got to relive the late '90s and white water and all that. how boom and bust media coverage cemented a fake irs scandal into place. that's up next. ♪ summer's best event from cadillac. let summer try and pass you by. lease this cadillac srx for around $369 per month or purchase for 0% apr for 60 months. come in now for the best offers of the model year. still running in the morning? yeah.
♪ school's out [ male announcer ] from the last day of school back to the first, they're gonna do a lot of note-taking and note-passing. so make sure they've got a whole lot of paper. this week only, get filler paper for a penny. staples has it. staples. that was easy. we are going to talk about the attention that has been given or more recently that has not been given to the so-called scandal at the irs. we're here with christina bellantoni, nick acocella, perry bacon and co-host of msnbc's "the cycle," krystal ball.
so it was 39 years ago on thursday night that americans turned on their televisions and watched this. >> to continue to fight through the months ahead for my personal vindication would almost totally absorb the time and attention of both the president and the congress in a period when our entire focus should be on the great issues of peace abroad and prosperity without inflation at home. therefore, i shall resign the presidency effective at noon tomorrow. >> that's what a real scandal can do to a ppt. watergate started small with a little noticed burg ri in june of 1972 and then grew and grew and grew until it finally toppled richard nixon this week in 1974. in the decades since, it has provided the single most overused and flat-out abused point of reference whenever a hint of possible scandal comes
anywhere near an administration. think of a few months ago when there were reports that the irs might have targeted conservative groups. peggy noon noon wrote, quote, we are in the midst of the worst washington scandal since watergate. she wasn't a lot alone. there were plenty of people in the media who went right along with the basic white house scandal narrative, present company included. unlike watergate, unlike any real white house scandal, the irs story has not built and built and built. irs officials testified under oath that the white house was not involved. we learned targeted groups also included the terms progressive and occupy as well as other organizations without a conservative bent. the original charges of the tea party groups being uniquely singled out debunked, media attention dropped off precipitously. on the right the scandal narrative is still alive. if you haven't heard much about it from the rest of the media lately, that's not an accident. a new study of irs-related
stories from "the new york times," "the washington post" and politico shows as the narrative fell apart, major media outlets basically dropped the story. no maya culpa, no former exoneration of the white house and they let it go. the white house has been happy to let them. the author is bren dn nyian a contributor to the columbia journalism review and joins us from hanover, new hampshire. brendan, thanks for being on the show. i remember when we first heard these reports, i think i said on this show, this absolutely is a scandal. it absolutely wasn't a scandal. let's go back to may when those initial reports broke, when idiots like me were saying things like that. take us through what's happened since then. what is the real story here? >> well, the initial reports focused on two points that made it so explosive, the first was that the white house might be involved, and the second was that conservatives were being
targeted exclusively. both of those fell apart. the wheels have come off that narrative. as you said, the evidence suggests that other groups were targeted using key words and there's no credible evidence that the white house was involved in directing this process. so it's not clear at all that those initial reports were correct. the impression the american public got from them, hasn't been supported. of course, the media doesn't want to run a headline saying not as much news here as we thought. so instead they simply stop covering the story and that can leave people with a misleading impression. >> right. i think that's sort of the old story, the paraphrase, the employee jay, you're indicted on the front page and exonerated on page b-27 or something. to pick up on the point, has this picked up the situation where the narrative of the white house did something wrong, the white house was doing something nicksonian in orchestrating something against the political
enemies. the perception has taken hold precisely because of what you're saying, there was no real forceful correction ever issued. >> that's right. it picks up on people's suspicions of obama who don't like him, fears of the irs, beliefs that obama practices so sort of, quote, chicago-stale politics. tl there are lots of threads out there that this narrative swept up and capitalized on. we should say, steve, in defense of your initial reporting there may still be important things to find out here. at least as a policy question, how to regulate these tax-exempt groups is a very difficult problem, and it may be true that the conservative groups were subject to disproportionate scrutiny, but that's not what the original reports were suggesting, they were saying ex-clue shivly directed at conservatives. that's not been supported. >> i was wondering if you looked at any sort of public opinion or
any sort of indication of what impression the public was actually left with. certainly it would seem from your study that because the coverage was most intense when people were thinking that there was a scandal and then it sort of dropped off, that people were left with the impression that there was a scandal, but do you know, have you looked at any opinion research that would support that? >> the problem here is because the media coverage dropped off, the polling coverage dropped off as well. so my understanding is these questions haven't been polled as much since the scandal fell apart. my piece for "columbia journalism review" cites a cnn poll showing half the american people said they thought the white house wouz involved in this case. how many of them actually new about the scandal and how many were saying that as an expression of dislike for obama, we don't know. but it at least suggests that people were coming away with a very negative impression. >> the other thing i just want to ask here, i know you've
studied more broadly just scandals in general, presidential scandals in general. how they take shape, what the necessary ingredients are. i wonder what your analysis of why the media sort of latched on to a much more sinister narrative at the beginning of this than maybe was there. what is your explanation for sort of what happened back in may to make this the big sort of fake story that it became? >> my research on presidential scandals suggests that the conditions were ripe for scandal at the time this took off. president obama had not had a major scandal since he took office, so there was something of a scandal backlog. there was latent demand out there for obama scandal, both among the media and among the republican party's base. they believe there must be something shady going on, we just haven't found it. the other thing is, of course, the republican base doesn't like him and there wasn't much going on in the news.
the political media needs stories to cover. you have a news hole to fill regardless of what's going on. in his first term there was quite a lot going on, and there were many other competing stories out there. but with obama's agenda stalled in congress, and we're kind of hitting the second-term doldrums period, there was a news vacuum and this story helped fill it. >> this story got more traction than the solyndra story that doesn't make the white house look good. but at the same time it came in the middle of finding out the justice department was looking into what journalists were doing, surveillance stories, it all bubbled up around the same time. show me a media that didn't drop off on an important story? the gulf coast oil spill should have been front page for much longer than it actually was. the real question i have, yes, the white house may not have been involved here. but if they're targeting any groups, does it really matter
what size it's on? that's a big deal. >> sure it is. what brendan said, there are definitely unresolved questions here. the key to me is approaching this through the scandal prism was probably a mistake. the question then is, is targeting the right verb for what happened? was it an agency that was told to interpret the new rules it was never set up to interpret. >> and doesn't have enough resources to do it either because their budget has been cut by such a large amount by congressional republicans. >> i sort of knew it wasn't a real scandal when nobody put the word gate on the end of it. >> i think they did, didn't they? >> this is what we do. we hype stories and then when they prove not to be as big as our hype, we drop them. that's what we do. >> a bit of a feedback loop where we hyped it, therefore obamas asks for resignations from the irs. therefore, we hyped it more because people are resigning.
>> members of congress can fundraise off of it. >> also, the other thing to keep in mind, there's a bias in the media for action. once a scandal starts, darrell issa has a press conference, john boehner, then there became stories about reaction and so on. right now the media coverage action, there's nothing happening. no one is giving press conferences about it. that's a problem, we at the msnbc, "the washington post," politico, should cover news more. >> did the white house react too swiftly to this? look how they've handled this since. since it's fallen apart, the idea of white house orchestrated targeting, instead of saying we're right, we're exonerated, they just don't want to talk about it. >> now we're writing stories about obama care is failing.
not we, but people in the media are doing it, reacting to a new controversy that may end up -- six months later we'll think about stories we're writing about obama care are also wrong. they don't have time to say we were right about this because they have to move to the right thing. >> remember at the time the criticism of the president and the administration was they weren't getting out front on these scandals, they weren't being proactive enough to deal with them. i think there was even more pressure, not only to deal with that scandal, but to show that he knew how to lead and he knew how to handle when things went wrong. >> to deal with the narrative as we call it. >> when you look at the media analysis of it, one of the reasons "the washington post" had so many front pages in brendan's study is because they got leaked documents. if you have something exclusive, of course you'll put it on the front page and it feeds itself. that's why the politicians respond to it. >> brendan, i mentioned this before, we're talking about how this disappeared in your study,
politico, "the washington post" and "the new york times," this alive and well in conservative media, if you turn on talk radio, fox news, conservative web silts, this thing is still going full force there, isn't it? >> it is, it is. that narrative is going to push forward. it's interesting because it may feed the idea that there's sort of a media bias explanation for what's gone on which i don't think is consistent with the evidence. "the new york times" and "washington post" were happy to play this story to the hit at the time it was sizzling. now that there aren't as many exciting new developments, they've moved on. the media has a short attention span. >> they're still talking about who killed vince foster on talk radio. >> they hope darrell issa will shoot the cantaloupe. >> i don't know why brendan didn't include breitbart in his study here. >> i want to thank brendan nyhan from dartmouth college for joining us from hanover.
the big green i think it is. thanks for joining us. just three african-americans have ever been elected to the u.s. senate. in about 84 hours, cory booker could be on the path to becoming the fourth. we'll talk about what the tilt of senator could mean for him, for his party, for the country. that's next. that's next. ♪ i'm a hard, hard worker and i'm saving all my pay. ♪ small businesses get up earlier and stay later. and to help all that hard work pay off, membership brings out millions of us on small business saturday and every day to make shopping small huge. this is what membership is. this is what membership does.
barring an ability of god on tuesday new york mayor cory booker will be the no, ma'am nae for the senate seat vacated by lautenberg. polls show booker is on top to flatten his republican opponent in the special election in october. new york mayor has a unique national profile with more than a million twitter followers in close relationships with mark zuckerberg, oprah winfrey.
freshman are expected to be seen and not heard. although it's kind of hard to see booker playing by those rules. i guess before we officially core nate, he has three opponents, congressman frank pallone, congressman rush holt from the princeton area. this is the guy who won jeopardy who beat winston, wilson, will fred, the super computer. >> bumper stickers that say my congressman is a rocket scientist. >> that's right. gina oliver, the speakerer. the latest poll has cory booker 37 points ahead of his nearest rival. nick, confirm for me, no suspension here, right? >> no suspense. booker has over 50% in a four-way race it would take a miracle at this point for anything else to happen. >> with all due respect, let's talk about cory booker. i think one of the reasons why
this is such a runaway, people in new jersey and a lot of people nationally have been waiting ten years for the chance to vote for cory booker for something. here it is. it's why he's able to raise all this money. perry, you wrote about him a couple months ago. senator cory booker, what is the model. when hillary clinton went to the senate, al franken, we have not heard from him in the last three years. he's trying to be a senator, a long-term senator, not the model cory book ser going to follow? >> not at all. he's talked about his campaign of poverty. he wants to bring that issue to the senate. he's in this thing where he lives on food stamps for a week. it's easy fto imagine if the republicans cut food stamps again, i think he's going to be a big media figure. the challenge for him would be, if you listen for him, he says i want to be mr. bipartisan.
i want to work with people the way i did with chris christie. there's problems with that. he also wants to run for president. those two goals will be in tension continuously. obama told his staff i want to vote for john roberts as a show of bipartisanship. roberts is clearly very qualified. i can do that. his staff said, sir, you're the preside one that wants to be president. he said yes. they said it would be a mistake. booker will be pulled in the same direction. he wants to be the guy who brings people together, but if you want to keep the national option open, you need to vote the way elizabeth warren is voting. >> because he's a national presence, they'll be treating him like a rock star. do you put your head down like al franken, do you do the hillary clinton workman thing and pick an issue or do you do the obama thing and become the star that you are, right? >> i think cory has sort of discovered a third way in the way he's been mayor of newark.
even his twitter following and the things he puts on twitter, they are a lot of them focused on his constituents but broadcast to a national audience. just like you're saying with living on food stamps, that's a way of empathizing with a certain constituency, but doing it on a national scale. i think that's been his brilliance, really. >> i cannot see cory booker sitting in a committee meeting for some subcommittee of the interior committee marking up an appropriations bill. i can't see it. he's a celebrity. he's got more name recognition than almost anybody else in the senate. and being a legislator is as much work as you want to make it. you can do what hillary clinton went, from being a rock star to being a diligent legislator, or you can continue that projection he's on of being a presidential candidate and a national celebrity. >> you made an interesting point, perry, cory booker won't
be the first politician to do this. going from a city or state whereby partisanship is a lot more possible than the polarized realities of wash-. the relationship with governor christie came up. cory booker has been invisible the last two months. he's been everywhere for ten years before, but his opponents tried to play up the close ties to christie. i'll show you how that looked. >> actually found it surprising that they count it as a criticism that i worked with governor christie. the truth is he and i disagree on most everything, from marriage equality to the issue of giving women access to preventative scare. despite our differences, i'm the mayor of the largest cities of the state. i've got to work with the governor to get things done. >> to be bipartisan, you have to have a partner. it works with chris christie because he is in a blue state looking to make a national
reputation looking to cozy up to as many democrats as possible. you get to washington, washington ain't trenton. washington is a jungle compared to trenton. >> especially when cory will be representing a very blue state where his constituents don't really want him to be looking to partner with the republicans as they exist right now. >> nothing to partner on. >> he owes a little bit of the fact that this looks to be an easy race to chris christie who chose the timing of the election where he's spending less money. >> the other thing is, the extent that cory booker got a taste of the difference between getting media coverage in new jersey and being mr. bipartisan in new jersey and what that translates into nationally, this is a clip from may of 2012. you probably remember this. this is when cory booker tried to be mr. bipartisan on "meet the press" in the context of a national presidential election, this is what he said back then. you probably remember this. >> i'm not about to sit here and indict private equity.
to me we're getting to a ridiculous point in america. i live in a state where pension funds, unions and other things are investing in things like bain capital. if you look at the totality of bain capital's record, they've done a lot to support businesses, to grow businesses. this to me, i'm very uncomfortable. this kind of stuff is nauseating to me on both sides. >> this is what i'm really interested to see happen with cory booker. if you remember, the after nan of ma -- cory booker is generally an unflappable, super smart, super quick politician. in the aftermath of that he was totally unprepared for what he got hit with. >> a several-minute explainer video. >> the hostage video. >> he didn't expect it. >> the republicans actually coined a term bookered because you didn't see much of him on the national stage in terms of helping the president run for re-electi re-election.
at the same time he said he's not going along with the obama line. >> this is an ambitious guy. videos like that aren't going to help him in the democratic primary. the democratic primary is changing. there was an article in "the new york times" about him cozying up to silicon valley and working with the company. i think for him being close to silicon valley and wall street are helpful because that's where the money is. if you're running for president which i think he's going to try to do, i think he has to be a more liberal kind of figure now if he wants to move forward. you have people like elizabeth warren, like al franken, like amy klobuchar who are not talking about how great chris christie is. i'm not sure booker can do that if he wants to ascend any further. >> you mentioned the silicon valley story that came out this week. i wonder what the implications are going to be long term for cory booker if there are any. this story raises some red
flags. a company called waywire. cory booker was basically given the eons of it by a bunch of silicon valley people. one member of the board was the 15-year-old son of jeff zucker. when this story came out, the 15-year-old resigned from the board. i would love to have been on the board. we went to look at waywire, some sort of social media thing, a video aggregator that makes it easy to collect, curate and share videos across the web. it was a cross between youtube and buzz feed. it was 30 bears explaining climate change or something. his interest was worth like $1 million to $5 million. he didn't put it on his disclosu disclosure. when they caught the story, he amended the forms. >> we have shower or thunderstorm memories. i'm not sure it affects him long term. they'll sell the thing off and it will be over. the thing that made me crazy about it was he left it off his
financial disclosure form. what were you thinking? how many one to five million dollar assets do you have that you didn't remember it? >> in fact, that was the only one to five million dollar asset that was listed. >> i don't know many with one of those, but if they had it, they would remember to put it on the form. >> i agree it doesn't have a huge long-term implication. cory is so savvy. the two instances of bad ujment were on the bain capital thing and on this issue. there's nothing illegal here, right? but he's soliciting -- using his influence to solicit donors mostly in silicon valley like these powerful tech entrepreneurs who are billionaires to have this startup. it shows -- it confirms for some people what they fear about cory booker, that what he's really interested in is his self, the constituency he's most in touch with is wall street and silicon valley and not the people he's supposed to be representing. to me it was just startling bad judgment and also you are mayor
of one of the most troubled cities in the country, how do you have time to be starting a startup? >> they called him inspiration architect. i don't know what that means. >> it's a new experience for new jersey. usually when the politicians go to office and get rich, it's through the taxpayers' expense. anyway, from cory booker to michelle obama to a very special episode of "different strokes." we'll show you how to get there coming up. coming up. then i better use the capital one purchase eraser to redeem my venture miles for this trip. purchase eraser? it's the easy way to erase any recent travel expense. i just pick a charge, like my flight with a few taps, it's taken care of. impressive baldwin. does it work for hotels? absolutely thank goodness. mrs. villain and i are planning our... you scare me. and i like it. let's go what's in your wallet? [ crashing ]
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who you believe is up to you. then again, if you go ahead and try them, at least it won't be out of ignorance. >> you remember nancy reagan's "just say no" campaign. we will tell you what it does and does not have in common with the campaign michelle obama has launched as first lady. that's next. don't tell mom! don't tell mom. okay. don't tell mom. don't tell mom. don't tell mom? yeah. the best stories you'll ever tell start with, don't tell." don't tell dad. start yours in the new santa fe. from hyundai. all this produce from walmart and secretly served it up in the heart of peach country. it's a fresh-over. we want you to eat some peaches and tell us what you think. they're really juicy. it must have just come from the farm. this right here is ideal for me. walmart works directly with growers to get you the best quality produce they've ever had.
a few months ago america's foremost print source for fake news, the on june declared michelle obama's signature crew said as first lady was officially officially replacing it. it was pretty funny. we found out the joke was on an on june because of an announcement on wednesday by the centers for disease control from 2008 to 2011 the rate of childhood obesity dropped in more parts of the country that it increased. it's tough to establish a direct connection here, but also hard to believe that this good news does not have something to do
with the fact that one of the most prominent and popular women in america has made getting kids to eat right and exercise her defines cause. she's hosted kids state dinners and her let's move initiative has promoted exercise and physical fitness in innovative ways, when she teamed up with jimmy fallon to explain the evolution of mom dancing. ♪ >> now, every first lady has had a pet cause, but not every first lady gets results. one who did was lady bird johnson. her cause was highway beautification, clearing the enter states of billboards and
replaces them with greenery and landscaping. billboard lobbyists battled back when she tried to do that. lyndon johnson told his advisors, quote, you know i love that woman and she wants the highway beautification act and, by god, we're going to get it for her. lyndon johnson did get it for her, passed the highway beautification act in october 1965 over the objections of some in congress including an up and coming republican named bob dole. dole suggested when it came to removing billboards, the law should remove all the references to the secretary of commerce and replace them with the words lady bird. betty ford with the renowned drug and alcohol treatment center that bears her name is also well remembered for sharing her own struggle with substance abuse as she left the white house. as first lady she had a different issue, breast cancer awareness. she was dying northwest wiiagno month after moving into the white house. she encouraged women to get
screenings. there was an uptick in the number of women who sought out ma'am graphs. other causes have ranged from reading, literacy, mental health and foster care. the most memorable was nancy reagan and the just say no command. the magic three-word commandment that she implored kids to remember if they were ever offered drugs. on march 19, 1983, nancy reagan unretired as an actress and shared her message with arnold an his classmates on a very special episode of "different strokes." 32.5 million americans tuned in, six million more than the episode averaged. the legacy of the just say no campaign remains contested. according to the reagan foundation, by 1988, they were more than 12,000 just say no clubs across the country and
around the world. plenty of skeptics wonder if her simple advice really shaped behavior. as the on june put it, nancy reagan ends nation's drug problem with very special different strokes appearance. i can't see what future spouses choose as their signature issues. the report that can stop the keystone xl pop line, that's next. long lasting twists, next. p line, that's next. line, that's next.
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keystone is subject to public approval because it crosses the united states border. back in march the state department which will make a formal recommendation on whether to go forward with the project, back it march it issued a report that down played the potential environmental impact of the project. it was quickly revealed that experts with the state department who relied on it previously worked for keystone. that calls into question the legitimacy of the report. the state department is now looking into it. president obama's most recent comments on keystone came at a press conference back in late june when environmentalists were encouraged by these words. >> allowing the keystone pipeline to be built requires a finding that doing so would be in our nation's interest, and our national interest will be served only if this project does not significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution. >> christina, there was that
line that gave environmentalists hope, that maybe the president is creating an out, the justification for turning down the project. the other thing was he also disparaged the potential jobs impact of having it. the big case that republicans and some democrats make is this is a book for jobs, thousands of jobs will be created. i think he put the number at like 50. environmentalists looked at that and said, maybe he's not going to do it anyway. what do you think they're going towards here? >> the delay is very interesting because a lot of people expected it at the beginning of the summer. the speech you showed him giving, that's a whole point, he's going to lay out his bipartisan climate change plan that republicans and democrats could get behind. this is sort of the one thing that might have a chance of occurring. so the white house is under a lot of pressure to see it happen. i recently went to canada and was talking to different governmenters about this. they're saying they're worried, they want jobs created there. it's not a political issue for
them. it's an economic issue. >> it seems like, the conventional wisdom, obviously i don't have any inside information on the deliberations of the white house, but the conventional wisdom is they would ultimately approve this. at first it was just getting through the 2012 election but they'll ultimately approve this. i'm wondering because they've delayed this so long. what's your read? >> i'm with you steve. i thought he would eventually approve this. if you look at the interview with "the new york times," 15, 20 jobs, thing like that, the estimates are 4,000, all the groups said the president was wrong about this. whatever the merits of his statement were, he seems to be downplaying the jobs impact of it severely, suggesting it's not much of a job creator, talking about it being an environmental concern. he doesn't seem like someone who is on the verge of saying this is a great project. seems like the politics are moving son and maybe he decides in the end to block it.
i wouldn't say there was zero ance last year, now i think there's a stronger chance than before. >> actually the time to approve it would have been during the election when you can see here ask what i'm doing, i'm working across the aisle. i think you're right, perry, he's backing away from it. on the jobs numbers, this sort of thing is notoriously difficult to predict. you the direct jobs on the pipeline and the republicans want to use the huge inflated figure of any job that is possibly connected in any way, dancers, bartenders. >> 8.4 million. >> exactly: the truth lies somewhere in between. i think it's a few more than 50. it's very difficult to estimate so you can put out any number that you want to and have some sort of report to back it up in. >> nick, does this tell us something about maybe the politics within the democratic coalition?
it's kind of split there. is there maybe a sense that the environmentalist side is winning a little bit? >> he sounds that way. ultimately i think he has to do it. i don't see how he does -- >> why does he have to do it? >> because of the job situati situation -- >> even a couple thousand is not much in this economy. >> he's trapped with the labor unions, they want this, they want the construction. he may be right about 50 jobs on a permanent basis. but the construction which is a jump starter for the whole economy -- >> it's not only a political split, it's also a regional split. you'll see people in states that can benefit from this be more in favor in some cases or more against it. people on the coast aren't going to care as much or they want to hear more done about offshore drilling or more on wind energy or solar energy. >> what's different now, too, you have general kerry in place
as the secretary of state and he has the long environmental record. gina mccarthy is in place as the epa chief. i wonder -- the team has changed as this thing has sort of been delayed. >> nobody has said this is going to lower fuel prices or heating fuel or whatever this canadian shale oil -- is it for cars, is it for heating? nobody says it's going to lower prices. ma militates against it. >> there's also this myth that this will somehow be our oil? it's tar sands oil, it's the difficultiest that you can possibly extract from the earth. i understand why canada is very interested in the project. it's not like this is going to increase our energy independence. it's a commodity, goes tint global commodities market. i don't think it really impacts prices one way or the other. >> i wonder if politically we reached a point where four-plus years, almost five years into its presidency, he's made the
gestures before where republicans are saying just do this, prove you'll be bipartisan, take one of our ideas, do it. you think like in the budget talks every time you offer something, it gets nowhere. they walk away from the table. if that was the nags name for doing this, to prove buy partisan, i wonder after five years. >> he's done with these bthese bipartisan proofs. if some environmental calamity did happen because of this, a very small chance of it, but if it did happen, it would look very bad on his record considering that this is something if he approves will create 2,000 or 6,000 or some infinitesimal amount of jobs. >> 20 years from now you don't want nebraska to look like the gulf of mexico. >> what do we know now that we didn't know last week? answers after this. is like hammering.
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buck ran for the senate in 2010 against an appointed democratic incumbent michael bennett. he was running with a powerful national republican and was well positioned to win. among other things he compared homosexuality to alcoholism and joked voters should choose him over one of his female primary opponents because he, quote, does not wear high heels. he lost to bennett in a squeaker, one of the reasons the democratstime, buck would be rug to unseat mark udall. ken's going to finish the job in 2014. buck's decision wasn't the only good news democrats got on the senate front this week. we also know now in georgia, michelle nun, the democrat's consensus candidate for saxby
chambliss' seat is now tied with or leading her potential gop opponents. no nun is hoping her eventual republican opponent will have the same instincts ken buck showed a few years ago. and that hope may not be so far-fetched, because one of the leading gop contenders, congressman phil gingrey, suggested on the house floor earlier this year that grade school should teach children traditional gender roles. out of georgia this week, we also know now that former food network star, paula deen, who it was revealed earlier this year, who had mused about planning a wedding with a true southern traditional theme, with black servants, was still liked we pollers. amongst self-described
republicans, deen actually had a favorability score of 73%. you can compare those numbers to martin luther king's. he was also tested in the poll. his favorability score among georgia republicans, 59%. and finally, we know now that in politics, pretty much anything can be used as an excuse to raise money. and that includes a heart operation that the former president george w. bush underwent this week to relieve an arterial blockage. just hours after bush left the hospital, the national republican congressional committee sent an e-mail to supporters, soliciting them to, quote, chip in k$5 to help us send president bush a bouquet of blue bonnets, the texas state flower. they provided other donation options as well. the possibilities went as high as $250, according to the dallas morning news. probably a very expensive blue bonnet bouquet that they got. i want to know now what may guests know now that they didn't know when the week began.
>> pbs announced that glen eiffel and judy woodriff will be the first hour female co-anchors. they'll be co-anchoring starting in september. it's really exciting times and a lot of fun. >> congratulations to them. nick? >> what i know is that while hispanic major league baseball playersre 25% of the total, they are 62% of those who have been suspended by major league baseball for drug use. i don't know what this means. it could mean that hispanics are more likely to take illegal substances or that major league baseball targets hispanics or that they're more likely to get caught, but it's an interesting fact. >> perry? >> what i now know, we don't talk about sexting anymore. anthony weiner is down to fourth in the polls in the new york mayor's race, and we're seeing a real race about issues now, between kristi christian and bill plazazo. we're having a real debate now,
instead of a debate about what anthony weiner has told women. >> so we can actually just ignore him now. >> we now know, thanks to dan balz's new book, "collision 2012," just how much chris christie was encouraged and begged and sought by the republicans to get into the race last time around. we'll see if he is still so sought-after in 2012. >> thanks to dan balz and thanks to chris christie, who was one of the most cooperative of any of the people featured in that book. my thanks to christina bellanto bellantoni, of the pbs "newshour," mike act telly, perry bacon of thegrio.com, and krystal ball, co-host of msnbc's "the cycle." thank you all for getting up and thank you for joining us for "up." join us tomorrow at 8:00 where we'll have former congressman tom davis, and julia ioffe from the new republic. coming up, the problems with
putin. even in the dog days of summer, it's feeling awful chilly between the united states and russia. that's on "melissa harris-perry." she's coming up next. we'll see you right here tomorrow morning at 8:00. thanks for getting up. okay, a? b? b. a? that's a great choice. let me show you some faucets to go along with that. with the latest styles and guaranteed low prices, you can turn the bath you have into the bath you want. good choice. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. right now, this abbey vanity combo is a special buy. just $299. [ all ] who's new in the fridge!
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