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tv   [untitled]    June 1, 2011 3:30am-4:00am EDT

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it's a tsotsi international headlines for you this hour former bosnian serb general rock of that it is in the hague to stand trial for war crimes his defense questions the validity of the evidence rather it is him who live in the enough to see the verdict six to nine year old is reportedly poor health having suffered three strokes. the prime suspect in the case of a murdered russian journalist anna politkovskaya his friends are mosco for questioning from in chechnya a coast guard of the dead outside
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a human was born four years ago. battle on the home front of american struggle to find jobs well three costly military campaigns going for cities and working against them but cripple the u.s. budget in the minimum wage the struggle for the likes of mcdonnell seventy able to hire twenty one for one hundred infants. the next cross-talk discusses the situation in yemen and asks how much longer will the president signing and crush protests against his regime. can't stand.
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alone when welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle is the chaos being played out in yemen turning the country into a failed state how should the international community be reacting to events there and will the endgame for the regime in yemen result in still another terrorist base and threatens the region and world. can. start. to prosecute protests in yemen i'm joined by daniel pipes in philadelphia he's an author and director of the middle east forum and in washington we have edwin hall he's a former u.s. ambassador to yemen and he's also author of the book high value target countering al qaeda in yemen all right gentlemen this is crosstalk that means you can jump in anytime you want mr ambassador if i go to you first here i mean as we go to air here there's a lot of speculation some people say evidence that the the leader in yemen is
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opening the door to al qaeda to make sure he can stay in power in what looks like what most people are saying now is a civil war how would you assess that statement. well al qaeda in the arabian peninsula was a threat before this current revolution in iran then. it has become more of a threat since it started simply because it's operating space in the country has expanded but i doubt the president is intentionally exacerbating that threat he may think tactical advantage from that but i don't see that he has an interest in opening the door to al qaeda in any case i don't think he's getting any benefit from that and in any case. the challenge remains to get beyond the current impasse and to deal with this threat in the long term ok daniel what do you think about that because this is even if there's any any evidence of this sort is true is that
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you know we have a leader in yemen that has been a very loyal american ally for a long time and if there's even any hints that he's trying to use this do to keep himself in power which are his critics saying that he's doing right now i mean what does that say about how the u.s. is taking its allies in the region. well i would be a little less strong in our terminology going to very loyal u.s. our gasohol can ok try to be more details than i can but he is someone who we could work with who was on again off again not not the greatest ally actually and part of that is that many elements in the country don't want you to have a role there don't want to be fighting al qaeda and he's not that strong i mean yemen is a very difficult country to rule and the central governments writ doesn't go very far so he never was great shakes from the american point of view and now he this is
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even less a new use for i joined the ambassador in guarding that he actually is complicit with all carter or benefiting from al qaida but that certainly is an accusation from his opponents that in both jobs and zinjibar two towns that are now under islam this rule that he has fomented this has has allowed this to happen i doubt it but that is nonetheless a an important accusation in yemen these days mr ambassador is a silo a worth a worthy of protection by the united states now is that they would just like to see the back side of him and still have someone there that would protect american interests in the region after all it does border on saudi arabia. our current terrorism cooperation with yemen has has always extended beyond president salva he was an important part of it but not an essential point to remember you are he said what you already said was so if you're implying that he's in the ones he's in the
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past tense category now. well i think in terms of ongoing counterterrorism cooperation it's considerably reduced but also in terms of his long term. shelf life and i think he's part of the past not its future it's interesting daniel pipes i mean in looking at this and i guess we could ask the ambassador because he probably knows far more about it having been on the ground but i mean yemen is a very very difficult place to rule because there's so many different variations right there you see there's a possibility and so i was says this and so did you know if this continues we could see another libya scenario where the country becomes partitioned in not just in two parts but in more parts than that what do you think the likelihood of that is. rather than expect partition peter i would see anarchy you would see no central government has control over the countries already or in fact some are thinking some would be all the more the case more of the somali or the afghan or the lebanese
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were just nobody was so remarkable in the yemeni case is how many opponents the central government has i count something like in the numerator if you like but it's so many it is very hard to say that. will remain in power mr ambassador i mean that there is given the u.s. interest in the region they wouldn't want the united states does not want to see chaos in yemen for a very long i mean what kind of role can the united states and i would stress positive in this case a positive role now given the obama administration's at least new wants to approach maybe not a radical change but what is the united states going to be doing now looking is this country falls into absolute chaos i would agree with daniel i mean there are so many different elements right there how does that how does a country like united states would like to have a relationship with yemen how do they decide now how to proceed maybe the best procedure is to stand back for a while. you know i think that would be
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a serious mistake first of all i would emphasize that it's much more than u.s. interests at stake here there are very significant regional interests first and foremost saudi arabia and you've seen that because i go through operation council has been engaged in trying to work a solution to this but beyond that there are international interests what we see here is is in some ways are innocent of the situation that was developing in afghanistan pre nine eleven where the international community as a core was threatened by increasing safe haven for al qaeda now now what we do about that is another matter but i think we have to be active and take the initiative and i would suggest that you've got three forces at play here you've got forces within yemen and there are significant not only the protesters in the street but generally not son and the other tribal leaders of the tribes so there are there are very strong forces inside yemen moving toward change you have the
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regional forces. operation council which have a great deal of influence and then i think the international community needs to step forward and needs to step forward in a much more purposeful way that it has to now daniel i mean if we look at the influence of the gulf countries i mean i lost count how many deals they saw always given what four already now and he's bought walked away from each one of them i mean what can the region do and i would like to point out that saudi arabia does. very harshly and specifically when it sees its interests. comes to mind of course i mean do you see that saudi arabia would be involved if you do to pick a side and to be even actively getting involved on the ground. well the saudis have been involved there's the house the rebellion which has been going on in particular two years ago in august of two thousand and nine the saudis sent their forces in from yemen back to the one hundred sixty s. they did do they were full fledged participants in
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a war which egypt and all of the nasr was on the site so yes there's a history of saudi involvement in yemen in particular military history the final so for the final g.c.c. offer was turned down by solid on the twenty second of may just over a week ago and it doesn't look like the diplomacy is going very much further and by the way it didn't look like that was going to solve very much because what it foresaw was solid stepping down that as vice president taking over for a month and then having a very unwieldy and unlikely group of islamists and socialists and nasr right some tribesmen coming in but it also saluted a number of important actors such as the how for the rebel rebels and the tribal leaders and the youth. who are who started the whole thing in january so it was imperfect at best and i'm not quite sure that that much was lost by its rejection by saddam mr masur it's our word to step down let's say hypothetically
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yes comment and i jump in there go right ahead yeah i'd like. yelling is not about hearing ok. so the intervention all about having them and i think would be a disaster any arab country. generally any country that's tried to intervene military only in yemen has lived to regret it certainly the options and the saudi intervention these are the us who things was on the side of it wasn't against saddam but where the saudis have influences with the pocket book a great deal of resources flowed from saudi arabia into yemen and there are recent indications that the. saudis are using that as a significant lever. i'm a little bit more positive on the g.c.c. initiative also then. mr pipes i think it was a well designed effort i think it got for i think developments in
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the region really complicated it because when you started to see what was happening in egypt with osama barak i think president saleh got cold feet and really questioned whether or not he wanted to give his state over and i also think he was motivated in seeing developments in places like libya and syria where dictators have held on to power through military force so it's it's a larger regional phenomenon and such thing daniel i mean if we take this on board here. no matter what happens if the president steps down now it's going to be just absolute chaos theory i mean which way could he go and i mean there are other people but i know there are some people who are very concerned that he could we could see al qaeda really get a foothold and that's how i introduce this program is that it would be a threat to the region and beyond how how serious do you think that is because we know that there is that we know it is already there we've established are going. so
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i was not and i would take as an assumption that ali abdullah saleh will not be the head of state in yemen for much longer i think he's finished i would put him in the past case there are different sorts of islamists in particular there's this last movement which has become a political movement and then there's the what we talked about the house the rebellion which was shiite and then there's all kind of which is sunny all of them with a different ideology with a different perspective oppressed different personnel competing in ways cooperating in other weights. but there are serious forces in yemen that wish to see a car off of yemen from the west not cooperate with the west not be part of the international system but rather as an afghanistan a decade ago to create an islamic emirate that did you what you will continue on this point after a short break and after that show break we'll continue our discussion on yemen
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state with our. they live not only next to the border of the gaza. but also on the border of peace and war. they are responsible not only for themselves. but also for their loved ones. they are ready to take any risk.
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streets. the close up team has been to the ground reach thank you on the string point of the war to. this time the party goes to the region where half of the area is occupied by a nature preserve. where the young generation transition their ancestors to come where the mysterious city on the deadlocks welcomed the republic are the subjects russia close far keep. kicking the story. and. welcome back to cost a computer the culture of niger we're discussing yemen's possible futures.
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kick. start. ok mr ambassador and we've been talking about yemen specifically but let's broaden it out and see what the international community possibly can do i'd like to add the caveat we have a intervention going on in libya right now that does it's at the very very least it's very very messy. and then make people go much further and say this is a stalemate this is a partition and that we have really nothing good has come a vis our intervention so with that in mind what can the international community do i mean are interventions off the table now or is it going to be turning into the flavor of every single month as we go forward in the in the arab awakening. well an armed intervention in yemen would be a terrible mistake. it would be even more problematic than libya so that is not the way to go in my opinion however i think what you need to do is construct some positive exit from the current in chaos and it can't be all negative
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it can't be all sanctioned and it certainly can't be passivity watching the country to spiral down in a death spiral but yemen does have a political culture. that is surprisingly positive they've had several elections that have been deemed generally free and fair by the international community and from thousand and three two thousand and six the presidential election was contested then. it has a political infrastructure that includes functioning parties including an islamic party that is more reminiscent of a turkish islamic party than a radical one so you have material to work with and my thinking in my opinion what the international community should do perhaps in the united nations is to come up with some kind of
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a an exit strategy from the impasse and it may involve some sticks sanctions but also involves some carrots building following yemen's tradition politics traditions of elections but with a more robust regional and international involvement in that to make that path forward more credible mr ambassador i can stay with you on this point is that how do we get rid of salo or if you know because that seems to me that that's the has to happen for this for your scenario to work out i mean do you you know get rid of him i mean quote unquote i'll let my audience decide what needs. well i think you need to start working more on what comes after sol you don't focus all of your attention on just getting rid of saddam because as you shape what comes afterwards you grease the skids for his exit. and beyond that what you have to do is to continue to narrow that base of support and it's already narrowed very dramatically
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most dramatically when general allen lesson. left him and i think you have to create a. situation where his current supporters have to choose they have to choose between him in the past and the future yemen as it's involving where their interests are better served daniel if i can go to you i mean i want to stay with the international community but let's go back to yemen real quickly i mean the current leader is what ignites all of these protests i mean if you were suddenly to disappear do you see that civil society is political society is strong enough as the ambassador is pointed out to do to do really wind down the violence and actually sit down and have elections and have a sort of civil dialogue because it is the longer this violence continues the seems more likely that would be. you know i'm more pessimistic than mr l. on two points first i think that there is no basis for common vision beyond
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getting rid of the current regime. everybody agrees on that a lot of people ground that they don't agree what comes next they're competing visions and i don't see any serious chance that they can come together and work. combined their joint future secondly i don't think that we in the west have any substantial friends you know yemen and mr hall referred to with turkey as long as forty one there are no friends of ours they've turned into quite a hostile element i don't think we have a base there so where is he we're trying to construct a apology the. that is that we can work with i think it's probably wiser to preempt and say that this is a state whose population is hostile and therefore we should put it on notice you have it began i think i can i just think it's just coming out of there can i can interject i mean sol is because he's perceived is an american ally doesn't that
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create the anxiety in the in the dislike of the united states in the west just by the very fact that he's being very small rather than the average thirty thirty thirty three years he's been in power and basically being called a friend by the united states maybe not the best friend but a friend. well not probably was not a wise thing to do but he wasn't as i try to establish really or really an ally he was someone we could work with you know no more than mubarak was and i like these people we could work with we have no shared. values or vision with the saudis the same thing would go so my and my view would be more negative let's let's put aside the yemeni leadership whatever it might be in the future on my own notice that if we get any any hostilities from there we will make it painful for them if there are no hostilities then we will work with them and by the way this is a country that is and is at the point of near collapse there are such problems with water with economy that are extreme and i don't think i don't think
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that putting money is going to solve it i think we need to protect ourselves from the potential dangers and i might conclude by saying that i've never my life but on a program television program before they discuss yemen yemen was obscure and it is in one way a sad development that we have to talk about yemen and yet it is an important development yemen is part of the pond today mr ambassador you were prime minister would you like to read on that go ahead please do. yes you are first of all pessimism is not a policy i mean it's pretty easy to especially with yemen to wring our hands and say. sides are all going the upsides we're still it's imperative upon us to develop an approach and i would argue an approach with the international community and the second thing is shared visions and values are great if you can get them and i mean wonderful having great britain but the fact of the matter is in my experience as a diplomat what you really work upon are shared interests and. thankfully
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al qaeda does provide a shared interest not only with the un but many of the state of the middle east and it will continue to provide. a shared interest in that regard and we just have to be adept enough to let it lead to build on that shared interest either bilaterally with yemen i'm talking about solid young men who are opposed to yemen and internationally with the russians the chinese the europeans and more broadly this is our basis. if i could stay with you mr ambassador let's let's say the assumption is that the the u.s. and its western allies would he would support any leader in yemen who would take on al qaeda in a serious way do you think that's a good idea would that back fire on the united states and the west go ahead. i don't think that's true i don't think it's anyone gets our support i think we can be more demanding that listen the yemeni is going against al qaeda is not
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a favor to us al-qaeda is threatening yemen. it is a shared interest that we have so it's not a something that they can use the blackmail us but our interest in yemen should be much broader than just al-qaeda it should be yemen's development it should be political political stability there if we have a narrow approach i think we're doomed to failure and i think you can go back historically and that's what i do in my book and show from all one two or four when we had a broad sustained approach that will not only targeted al qaeda but also supported yemeni political and economic development that is when we need our major gains against al qaeda and actually severely degraded its leaders in its ranks and in all four they constituted a negligible threat to the united states and the international community daniel
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pipes that i go to you let's let's really be optimistic super optimistic right now let's say let's say very somber leaves everyone says hey we've had enough and we can sit down we can talk we have civil society political society and actually get some kind of reform there that i think all three of us in this program would respect wouldn't saudi arabia be really upset about that and your contentions you know going bahrain. well of course it depends what it's going to look like but i would say no or the saudis would probably be concerned if yemen goes back to its usual quiet what the actual internal rangelands are within yemen what role those ideas have of what role the it's sufi's have. the south and the north the various tribal configurations the hotshots in the book wills that really is not terribly important to the saudis if
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it were quiet the saudis would probably be quite happy mr ambassador if i can ask you it's broader now for dayglo because i just cannot go right ahead that's what this program is all that's a distro runs all about go right ahead. yeah but i think it would be shortsighted on the saudis part if they just hadn't had a lot of stability and that was as far as it went because it's not sustainable in the long run the economic pressures the increasing water supply the greedy decreasing gas and oil the growing populations mean that for a long term stability on the arabian peninsula you need yemen that is more integrated with the rest of the arabian peninsula and i don't mean integrated politically because the g.c.c. is a club of monarchs and they're not going to accept a republic but i mean economically you've got to address the economic needs of
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yemen not with charity but with things like finding work opportunities in a labor starved gold for a labor rich young men and you've got to look at those natural complementarities between yemen and and its neighbors and build something positive on those complementarities all right jim over all run out of time and we're all going to keep iraq just because what you just said there are many thanks my guess is in philadelphia and washington and thanks to our viewers for watching us here on r.t. so you next time remember a prostitute. in the. pacific.
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in indonesia all g.'s of a little in the grungy shirts the media who took the ritz carlton hotel and leave the hotel to tell me the millennium hotel in china you can see on t.v. in.

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