tv [untitled] June 1, 2011 11:30am-12:00pm EDT
markets. find out what's really happening for the global economy for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines tune into cars a report. hungry for the flu we've got. the biggest issues get the human voice face to face with the news makers. who are watching our t.v. live from moscow these are top stories seven polish soldiers standing trial over the deaths of afghan civilians have been acquitted by a warsaw court inside a lack of evidence to support the charges of war crimes which included the killing of six people among them a pregnant woman and a child. bosnian serb wartime commander rocco milan it's reduced his weight and un prison in the hague to be tried for genocide his lawyer said he may
not live until the trial begins and question the legitimacy of the evidence against him. boss economists in the us are warning that unemployment could be the biggest threat facing facing the nation with even low paid work running out there are currently fourteen million people in the u.s. without a job. that's all for me now my colleague kevin no one will bring you the latest news in half an hour but first peter val and his gas on cross talk to bait the ongoing crisis any yet. keep.
away unwelcome the cross talk i'm peter lavelle is the chaos being played out in yemen turning the country into a failed state how should the international community be reacting to events there and will the endgame for the regime in yemen result in still another terrorist base that threatens the region and world. came. across not protesting yemen i'm joined by daniel pipes in philadelphia he's an author and director of the middle east forum and in washington we have edwin hall he's a former u.s. ambassador to yemen and he's also author of the book high value target countering al qaeda in yemen all right gentlemen this is crosstalk that means you can jump in anytime you want mr ambassador fine go to you first here i mean as we go to air here there's a lot of speculation some people say evidence that the the leader in yemen is
opening the door to al qaeda to make sure he can stay in power and what looks like what most people are saying now is a civil war how would you assess that statement. well al qaeda in the arabian peninsula was a threat before this current revolution in yemen and it has become more of a threat since it started simply because its operating space in the country has expanded but i doubt the president has intentionally exacerbate that threat he may seek tactical advantage from that but i don't think that he has an interest in opening the door to al qaeda in any case i don't think he's getting any benefit from that and in any case. the challenge remains to get beyond the current impasse and to deal with this threat in the long term ok daniel what do you think about that because this is even if there's any any evidence of this or that is true is
that you know we have a leader in yemen that has been a very loyal american ally for a long time and if there's even any hint that he's trying to use this to keep himself in collar which are his critics saying that he's doing right now i mean what does that say about how the u.s. is picking its allies in the region. well i would be a little less strong in my terminology going to a very loyal u.s. ally i guess or how can i give you more details than i can but he is someone who we could work with who was on again off again not not the greatest ally actually and part of that is that many elements in the country don't want you to have a role there don't want to be fighting al qaeda and he's not that strong i mean yemen is a very difficult country to rule and the central government's writ doesn't go very far so he never was great shakes from the american point of view and now he this is
even less useful i joined the ambassador and doubting that he actually is complicit with al qaida or benefiting from the garden but it certainly is an accusation from his opponents that in both john and zinjibar two towns that are now under arrest on this rule that he has fomented this has has allowed this to happen i got it but that is nonetheless a important consideration in yemen these days mr ambassador is salo of worth a worthy of protection by the united states now is that they would just like to see the back side of him in that still have someone there that would protect american interests in the region after all it does border on saudi arabia. our current terrorism cooperation with the un has has always extended beyond president salva he was an important part of it but not. essential well mr ambassador you are he said look you already said was so if you're implying that he's in the ones he's in the past tense category now. well i think in terms of ongoing counterterrorism
cooperation it's considerably reduced and also in terms of his long term. shelf life and i think he's part of the past not its future it's interesting daniel pipes i mean in looking at this and i guess we could ask the ambassador because you probably know far more about it because having been on the ground but i mean yemen is a very very difficult place to rule because there are so many different variations right there you see there's a possibility and salah says this in itself did you know if this continues we could see another libya scenario where the country becomes partitioned in not just in two parts but in more parts and then what do you think the likelihood of that is. rather than expect partition or i would say anarchy you would see that no central government has control over the country's ready or in fact somewhat the case that would be all the more the case more the somali or the afghan no the lebanese model
where it's no but it was that was so remarkable in the yemeni case is how many opponents the central government has i count like a number of them if you like but it's so many it is very hard to see. with all or will remain in power mr ambassador i mean that if there is given u.s. interest in the region they wouldn't want to united states does not want to see chaos in yemen for a very long i mean what kind of role can the united states and i would stress positive in this case a positive role now given the obama administration's at least nuanced approach maybe not a radical change but what is the united states going to be doing now looking is this country falls into absolute chaos i would agree with daniel i mean there are so many different elements right there how does the how does a country like the united states would like to have a relationship with yemen how do they decide now how to how to proceed maybe the best procedure is to stand back for a while. no i think that would be a serious mistake first of all i would emphasize that it's much more than us
inconsistent at stake here there are very significant regional interests first and foremost saudi arabia and you've seen that because the gulf cooperation council has been engaged in trying to work a solution to this but beyond that there are international interests what we see here is is in some ways or i'm innocent of this situation there was enveloping in afghanistan pre nine eleven where the international community as a whole was threatened by increasing safe haven for al qaeda now and what we do about that is another matter but i think we have to be active and take the initiative and i would suggest that you've got three forces at play here you've got forces within you have and there are significant not only the protesters in the street but generally lawson and the other tribal leaders of the tribes so there are there are very strong forces inside yemen moving toward change you have the
regional forces the gulf cooperation council which have a great deal of influence and then i think the international community needs to step forward and needs to step forward in a much more purpose for way than it has up to now then you i mean if we look at the influence of the gulf countries i mean i lost count how many deals that saleh was given what four already now and he's probably walked away from each one of them i mean what can the region do and i would like to point out that so you arabia does. very harshly and specifically when it sees its interest. comes to mind of course i mean do you see that saudi arabia would be emboldened to do to pick a side and to be even actively getting involved on the ground. well the saudis have been and will there's the house the rebellion which has been going on and particularly two years ago in august of two thousand and nine the saudis sent forces into yemen and back and i think six things they did they were full fledged
participants in a war which egypt's going all of the nasr was in on the side so yes there's a history of saudi involvement in yemen in particular military history the final so far the final g.c.c. offer was turned down by saddam on the twenty second may just over a week ago and it doesn't look like they're promising is going very much further and by the way it didn't look like that was going to solve very much because what it foresaw was solid stepping down that his vice president taking over for a month and then having a very unwieldy and unlikely group of islamists and socialists and nasr right some tribesmen coming in but it also saluted a number of important actors such as the house the rebel rebels and the tribal leaders and the youth. who are who started the whole thing in january so it was imperfect at best and i'm not quite sure that that much was lost by its injection bus on the interim mr mansour is selling were to step down let's say
hypothetically yes can i jump in there go right ahead yeah i'd like. yemen is not bothering ok. so the intervention allah behind in yemen i think would be a disaster any arab country. generally any country that's tried to intervene military any in yemen has lived to regret it certainly the gyptian good and the saudi intervention these are d.d.l. two things was on the side of the president against saddam but where the saudis have influences with the pocketbook a great deal of resources flow from saudi arabia into yemen in their recent indications that the. saudis are using that as a significant lever. i'm a little bit more positive on the g.c.c. initiative also than. mr pipes i think it was a well designed effort i think it got far i think developments in
the region really complicated it because when you started to see what was happening in egypt with hosni mubarak i think president saleh got cold feet and really question whether or not he wanted to give his state over and i also think he was motivated in seeing developments in places like libya and syria where dictators have held on to power through military force so it's it's a larger regional phenomenon it's interesting daniel i mean if we take this on board here. no matter what happens the president steps down now it's going to be just absolute chaos theory i mean which way could he go and i mean there are other people that well know there are some people who are very concerned that he could we could see al qaeda really get a foothold that's how i introduce this program is that it would be a threat to the region and beyond how serious do you think that is because we know that there is that we know how it is already there we've established that going. so
i was that and i would take it as an assumption that ali abdullah saleh will not be the head of state in yemen for much longer i think he's finished i would put him in the past case there are different sorts of islamists in particular there's the islam movement which has become a political movement and then there's the what we talk about the house the rebellion which is shiite and then there's all kind of which is sunny all of them with a different ideology with a different perspective with its different personnel competing in ways cooperating in other ways. but there are serious forces in yemen they wish to see a car off of yemen from the west not cooperate with the west not be part of the international system but rather as an afghanistan a decade ago to create an islamic emirate that deal with you we will continue on this point well after a short break and out of that show break we'll continue our discussion on yemen
on large. the close up team has been to the world the grand reach. the string point a moon more to. this time the party goes for the region where half of the area is occupied by a nature preserve. where the young generation transition their ancestors to come where the mysterious city and the deadlocks world come the republic of north essential russia closer carkeek. to kick. start. the fall. welcome back to cost a computer a little to remind you we're discussing yemen's possible futures. kick.
start. ok mr nasser and we've been talking about yemen specifically but let's broaden it out and see what the international community possibly can do on my dad to carry out we have a intervention going on in libya right now that does it's at the very very least it's very very messy. and then make people go much further and say this is a stalemate this is a partition and that we have really nothing good has come of this intervention so with that in mind what can the international community do i mean are interventions off the table now or is it going to be turning into the flavor of every single month as we go forward in the in the arab awakening. well an armed intervention in yemen would be a terrible mistake. it would be even more problematic than libya so that is not the way to go in my opinion however i think what you need to do is construct some positive exit from the current impasse and it can't be all negative
it can't be all sanctions and it certainly can't be passivity rocking the country to spiral down in a death spiral but yemen does have a political culture. that is surprisingly positive they've had several elections that have been deemed generally free and fair by the international community and from thousand and three two thousand and six the presidential election was contested then. it has a political infrastructure that includes functioning parties including an islamic party that is more reminiscent of a turkish islamic party than a radical one so you have material to work with and my thinking in my opinion what the international community should do perhaps in the united nations is to come up with some kind of a an exit strategy from the impasse and it may involve some sticks sanctions
but also in some carrots building following yemen's tradition of politics traditions of elections but with a more robust regional and international involvement in that to make that path forward more credible and mr ambassador i can stay with you on this point is that how do we get rid of salo or if you know because that seems to me that that's the has to happen for this for your scenario to work out i mean you know get rid of him i mean quote unquote of i'll let my audience decide what needs. well i think you need to start working more on what comes after so you don't focus all of your attention on just getting rid of saddam because as you shape what comes afterwards you grease the skids for his exit. and beyond that what you have to do is to continue to narrow that base of support and it's already we're all very
dramatically most dramatically when general allen lesson. left him and i think you have to create a situation where his current supporters have to choose they have to choose between him in the past and the future yemen as it think. where their interests are better served daniel if i can go to you i mean i want to stay with the international community but let's go back to yemen real quickly i mean the current leader is what ignites all of these protests i mean if you were suddenly to disappear do you see that civil society is political society is strong enough as the master is pointed out to do to you really wind down the violence and actually sit down and have elections and have a civil dialogue because it is the longer this violence continues the seems more likely that would be. you know i'm more pessimistic than mr hill on two points first i think that there is no basis for
a common vision beyond getting rid of the current regime. everybody agrees on that a lot of people grin that they don't agree what comes next they're competing visions and i don't see any serious chance that they can come together and work on a combined joint future secondly i don't think that we in the west have any substantial friends and yemen and mr hall referred to a turkish slumber party was there no friends of ours they've turned into quite a hostile element i don't think we have a base there so where is he we're trying to construct a apology. that is that we can work with i think it's probably wiser to preempt and say that this is a state whose population is hostile and therefore we should put it on notice you have it but then i think i can i just think it's just coming out of the can i can interject i mean sol is because he's perceived is an american ally doesn't that
create the anxiety in the in the dislike of the united states in the west just by the very fact that he's been restored after the murder of thirty thirty thirty three years he's been in power and basically being called a friend by the united states maybe not the best friend but a friend. well not probably was not a wise thing to do but he wasn't as i tried to starboard earlier really an ally he was someone we could work with no more than mubarak was and i like these people could work with we have no shared. values or vision with them the saudis the same thing with you know so my of my view would be more negative let's let's put this the yemeni leadership whatever it might be in the future on may on notice that if we get any any hostilities from there we will make it painful for them if there are no hostilities then we will work with them and by the way this is a country that is and he's at the point of near collapse there are such problems with water with the economy that are extreme and i don't think i don't
think that putting money is going to solve it i think we need to protect ourselves from the potential dangers i might conclude by saying that i've never in my life put on a program television program before they discuss yemen yemen was obscure and it is in one way a sad development that we have to talk about yemen and yet it is an important development yemen is part of the pond today mr ambassador your prime minister would you like to read on that go ahead please do. yes you are first of all pessimism is not a policy i mean it's pretty easy to especially with yemen to wring our hands and say downsides are all greater than the upsides we're still it's imperative upon us to develop an approach and i would argue an approach with the international community and the second thing is shared visions and values are great if you can get there and i mean wonderful having great britain but the fact of the matter is in my experience as a diplomat what you really work upon are shared interests and it's thankfully.
does provide a shared interest not only with the un but many of the state of the middle east and al qaeda will continue to provide. a shared interest in that regard and we just have to be adept enough diplomatically to build on that shared interest either bilaterally with yemen i'm talking about solid yemen or a posada yemen and internationally with the russians the chinese the europeans and more broadly this is our basis. if i could stay with you mr ambassador let's let's say the assumption is that the the u.s. and its western allies would he would support any leader in yemen who would take on al qaeda in a serious way do you think that's a good idea would that backfire on the united states and the west go ahead. i don't think that's true i don't think it's any one gets our support i think we can be more demanding that listen the yemeni is going against al qaeda it's not
a favor to us al qaeda is threatening yemen. it is a shared interest that we have so it's not a something that they can use to blackmail us but our interest in yemen should be much broader than just look at it should be development it should be political political stability there if we have a narrow approach i think we're doomed to failure and i think you can go back historically and that's what i do in my book and show from all one two or four when we had a broad sustained approach that all not only targeted al qaeda but also supported yemeni political and economic development that is when we need are major gains against al qaeda and actually severely degraded its leaders in its ranks and in the role for the constituted a negligible threat to the united states and the international community daniel
pipes that are going to you let's let's really be optimistic super optimistic right now let's say let's say very solid leaves everyone says hey we've had enough and we can sit down we can talk we have civil society political society and actually get some kind of reform there but i think all three of us in this program would respect wouldn't saudi arabia be really upset about that and we're contagions you know going bahrain. well of course it depends what it's going to look like but i would say no or the saudis would probably be concerned if yemen goes back to its usual quiet what the actual internal rangelands are within yemen what role the zionists have of what role the shah fees have. the south and the north the various tribal configurations the hotshots in the book wills that really is not terribly important to the saudis if it were quiet the saudis would probably be quite happy mr ambassador if i can ask
you it's brought in now for the clothes i guess cannot go right ahead that's what this program's all that's a distro games all about go right ahead. yeah but i think it would be shortsighted on the saudis part if they just hadn't had a lot of stability and that was as far as it went because it's not sustainable in the long run the economic pressures the increasing water supply the greedy decreasing gas and oil the growing populations mean that for a long term stability on the arabian peninsula you need yemen that is. integrated with the rest of the arabian peninsula and i don't mean integrated politically because the g.c.c. is a club of monarchs and they're not going to accept a republic but i i mean economically you've got to address the economic needs of yemen not with charity but with things like finding work opportunities in
a labor starved cold for a labor rich young man and you've got to look at those natural complementarities between yemen and and its neighbors and build something positive on those complementarities all right jim overall run out of time and we're all. just because we're just there many thanks my guess would be in philadelphia and washington and thanks to our viewers for watching those here on our feet see you next time remember crosstalk. the admission in the credits haitian three. three.