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tv   [untitled]    May 22, 2012 8:30am-9:00am EDT

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live from moscow this is are you just in time for your headline collision paul swelling student demonstrations in planet earth descend into street battles with police on the eve of the one hundredth day of protest. the i.m.f. warns britain to come up with a plan b. against the euro crisis all schools and universities across spain shut down in protest across the. lebanon's on edge after deadly clashes between supporters and opponents of the regime in neighboring syria spread from its northern borders all the way to break. up next on r.t.
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a political risk consultant dr john holzman gives us his forecast on what's next for europe's single currency zone and it doesn't look good. for the ongoing debt crisis in the eurozone is certainly drawing everybody's attention at the minute not just in europe but around the world a lot of that attention from here in germany is being focused upon what is going to happen next with greece not to find out a little bit more about us i'm joined by john hulsman who's the president and co-founder of john c. hulsman enterprise a group which advises banks and hedge funds about where they should invest their money based on what's happening in the world politically john thank you very much for talking to us a pleasure to be here. well the global economy still hasn't recovered from the financial crisis of two thousand and eight would
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a potential exits of greece from the euro zone have a similar effect on the global economy is the full of lehman brothers did i think it could be worse than the lehmann thing it depends on how it's poundstone the worry at the moment is that as europeans do there as they fiddle while rome burns or in this case athens burns the problem is that a disorderly kind of exit would mean that the bond markets would turn immediately upon portugal and more importantly italy and spain if we get italy and spain game over if they've use this time to ring fence greece which was always the theory and if greece goes out but there's enough of a fund to protect the others recapitalize banking problems for italy and spain all will be well the problem is most of us think they haven't used this time to do anything except throw a plate in the air and hope it doesn't come back down if that's the case we could have an extendable moment in europe where europeans have to decide how much unity they want how much integration they want how much solidarity they're prepared to give up to save the euro or maybe the euro wasn't such
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a good idea in the first place no i've heard some analysts talking about say week until loop scenario that if greece was to go under then all eyes would start focusing on which was the next weakest economy and perhaps we could see some form of domino effect do you follow that policy as well but there could be contagion indeed because what we've done is stop believing that there is one rate in europe i mean what happened was these weaker southern countries less competitive countries to germany had a party for ten years because everyone said well it's a unified currency so the bond rate in germany is going to be pretty much the same as the pawn rate in athens well that theory is destroyed with what's happened in greece at the moment so now if we look individually at the parts of europe we see a number of very weak analysts limping along indeed and the problem is that countries like portugal which is in a similar spiral to greece ireland is different and i think would make it but really even france i mean could be considered part of the. to ation if you look at individual policies the markets are going to have very little tolerance for the reality that indeed this isn't germany the problem is that these countries want
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german standards of living in a german currency without german productivity now the british prime minister david cameron has warned the eurozone that it must make up or else it must break you align yourself with that philosophy i totally would agree with the prime minister because the problem was they set up a currency without having a country and it's like building a house from the attic down you don't get all the things like federal deposit insurance which means your banks are guaranteed you don't have a common policy where the european central bank can act like the fed and be a lender of last resort you don't have all the things that make nations transfer money to weaker areas within countries just as a matter of course in study of germans grumbling about greeks who retire at fifty two and drink so you have greeks grumbling about germans having dick todd's forced upon them that's because these people are in the same boat rowing in the same direction that's the problem and so they created this weird push me pull you two headed monster they've either got to move forward to greater integration to save the euro or they've got to pull back and have less integration and go back to more
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national model this mid-range view has really been failed and that's the theory that's fallen apart here well there was never actually any plan for countries to leave the euro zone when it was created it was always thought that countries would continue to keep on joining nobody would ever leave the club as it was on this is it i mean first the glaring overwhelming problem ninety percent of the people who do what i do ought to be fired because nobody thought this could even happen what a failure of intelligence that this wasn't even a possibility that sounds like a religion and not foreign policy to me what would likely happen would be there would be border controls there would be they would take your own notes close all the banks on a weekend not let anybody have any cash put stamps on it is the urgent argentinians didn't say these are now new drachma they would then refloat the drachma the drachma would lose between half and eighty percent of its value immediately there goes everyone's pension there goes everyone's life saver. it's right there in the in a in an instant and then they would be more competitive and if they did labor market reform in ten to fifteen years all might be well that's the good scenario. the bad
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scenario in this case is that they don't do these reforms that they default the europeans refuse to back them up and pretty soon greece leaves not just the euro zone but perhaps the e.u. as well but on very angry terms feeling they were let down they didn't get solidarity they weren't backed up ultimately the problem at the moment is there's fatigue on both sides the germans have donor fatigue they're sick of paying for a greek system the just doesn't work and they don't want to take for greeks to retire at fifty two when they retire at sixty seven perfectly understandable greeks and returned say we're thirty being told what to do while everyone is losing their pension money anyway it's the politics of this that are creaking if you had enough time you could rebalance the north which actually consumed more in the south which did austerity but we don't have a spare fifteen years as you rightly saying we have maybe it's all june but looking a greek bank deposit runs at the moment greeks are smart enough to pull their money out of the euro right now because they fear if they leave their money in a bank it could be drachma over a weekend and they live has to have their savings at a certain point this becomes
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a self-fulfilling prophecy and this is the danger we're not quite at a run yet but we're heading in that direction can we even make it to june and the election which might not work out but can we make it to june is the key question now there's still a very high percentage of greeks who want to remain within the euro around eighty percent of them. can greece remain in the euro zone without a hearing to the astaire if he plans can they have their cake and eat it you know it's a fairy tale there are a lot of fairy tales wandering around here the german fairy tale is that everyone can do austerity without growth forever and that somehow their politics can survive we've seen that it can't i mean we've seen that in the french election even the dutch with a aaa rating are now talking about spending more money and violating the terms of their solemnly agreed fiscal compact agreements we've seen the greek elections i mean we've seen the italian elections and so the germans don't allow that. matter and the greeks don't allow that economics matter and the problem with the system is that both of them are wrong there is no growth where there isn't you can't you
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don't just say gee i'd like to grow more who wouldn't the problem is that that means you have to do labor market reform you have to do pension reform and you have to work longer for fewer benefits that's not very popular right now and in return if you do that you get to keep more of your money in the long run because the bond markets leave you alone that's the brutal reality on one side on the other side of the germans never mention growth who would you are sturdy forever for no gain and that's also a very good question the problem is these are not questions that hit twenty years down the road these are hitting now and this is what the greek election is about is getting rid of these half truths and getting to reality greeks of taken around one billion euros out of their bank accounts over the past ten days following the elections could we see a similar situation happening in countries like spain like italy as people think well if greece is going to go to the drachma and they're going to have to lose a percentage of their wealth there and they get my money out of my domestic
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accounts and say put it in a undercount in germany where you can and in fact if you look at the bond yields which is the way to see if the bond yields or the temperature of the tells us how the patient's doing if you look at the numbers in spain after the greek situation the bond yield has crept up despite all the austerity in the hallway is the new prime minister has done almost everything miracle would like and yet the bond number is now six point two five to six point three eight percent if it goes to about six point five you can't pay that for very long if it goes to seven game over so we're right on the edge of the precipice in spain they've got to recapitalize their banks as well they haven't even shown bank losses yet we all know that's a joke we know they've got massive bank losses and so the spanish situation is wobbling only because of the greek situation people are saying greece is out where's the next week and all up in the problems spain and italy is collectively they're too big to save and if that happens game over then look at somebody like the germans leaving and so. saying we're just not going to do this anymore and so the strains on the situation it's a house of cards that could very easily come down because we're dealing with human
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beings and as we've seen in europe human beings make mistakes how close are we to seeing the the eurozone collapse completely in but europe tear itself apart and having to declare the euro is a failure by the end of the year will no i mean you know a lot of things that i do are very long term and that's why bad analysts survive frankly is because they can always say well things changed this is not in this is why this is making people nervous by december of this year will either be at a spot where greece is either in or been ring fenced and things in italy and spain are bearable the germans have given away a little bit on growth have said you have longer to do it a lot hasn't been an economic illiterate and hasn't cut the retirement age to fourteen or whatever number of picks but it's been serious about that there's no new spending but there's also no new draconian cuts i mean that that's the best case scenario and then europe trundles along but if it doesn't happen that way and that means everything has to go right which it hasn't up to now if it doesn't work that way by december greece is out in the recriminations begin i think you can see
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the death of europe as a geo political entity certainly is already very near the edge i mean what common policies do they have they don't agree on growth they don't agree on foreign policy they don't agree on defense policy that's not a common policy so let's stop talking about europe i do a lot with the rising powers and they say why there's so many europeans in the room at every meeting when we have six countries in the room or they were united or not and they look at each other and look at their shoes in the brazilians the indians the chinese that rightly don't get it now skeptics often point out that the the european elites in a in its bid to to save the united european project is driven not so much by economic goal political considerations but by a kind of ideological quasi religious fervor yeah it is i've never heard a member of the european elite question any project that had to do with greater. regardless of party we have an elite so out of touch with the reality of what their people are going through and what their people are about if all these people are
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skeptical increasingly skeptical of all these countries all over the place their populist movements are rising and they can honestly say this is an elite that has never run a lemonade stand none of these people ever worked in the private sector they have no clue how business is run and they're not trying to mandate prosperity in heaven forever some very odd and this is the problem it is an irrational analytical decision it's a religious view and the problem is the markets are on to them and they see that the emperor is indeed not wearing any clothing at all so how following the european elite willing in and how much are they able to try and save the european union are they willing to do anything yes if you ask people in brussels today what would they do in a perfect world which is the world they think they live and of course will neutralize all the debts and will get rid of these silly german objections and of course will set up an integrated state run out of brussels where we regulate all the economies of the member states and of course we'll set common european taxes and regulations and of course if you say that to anyone outside of the immediate and suburbs of
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brussels they think you've lost your mind that's where the demographic deficit gets sent are they willing to do these things they are they know they're not able to do them though as younker the head of luxembourg said we know what needs to be done but can we be reelected if we do it that is the actual question and the answer is no the problem is although they want to do these things they are not able to do these things because they don't understand the market so i was at a meeting with senior european leaders and they said what discipline can keep us to doing the snow started laughing and they looked to me i said the markets guys the marks of guy you talk about all this stuff for the first time in thirty years why because you have to you have no choice and that's what's going to happen either they will manage the process or the process will manage them john hulsman thank you very much my pleasure.
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he. says.
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the headlines on odds he collision course swirling student demonstrations in canada i descend into street battles with police on the eve of the one hundredth day of protest. the i.m.f. warns britain to come up with a plan b. against the euro crisis all schools and universities across spain shut down in protest at austerity. lebanon is on edge after a deadly clashes between supporters and opponents of the regime in neighboring syria it's spread all the way from its northern borders to beirut. and i was kate with the sport.
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i welcome the latest for this chance they often hear and hear the headlines. of the top rostov unfold all the favorites to keep their russian can really status as the relegation play offs we take climax. last russia trying for friday's friendly with uruguay moscow as part of a euro transfer twelve preparations as coach took out the car looks to trim this for. the great divide on an elephant called is named as the official predictor for this summer's euros in poland and ukraine following in the footsteps of the late paul the psychic octopus. and it's a crunch day at the bottom of the russian premier league where two teams are fighting for survival in the final legs of the relegation play offs last often also involves the end of the season look all but certain to retain their top flight status they take a three no lead into that final game that should make a good end of the regular campaign for individual one while the ball goes through
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a good bottom unless something to survive the drop they tells me they will get on to a third in division one to one advantage from their first leg. now there are just three weeks to go before the start of the european championships and russia are preparing for a friendly with your ago-i here in moscow on friday as part of their build up however. selection problems with key defend the results be ruled out through injury which is on court records. it was the hottest day of the year in question so fair that the temperature ways you can use fifty degrees. at the current is feeling the heat you can move as he has a number of selection day limits ahead of him because he used a pretty straight down to twenty three play. or user has a number of questions concerning his teammates defense russia suffered a hammer blow on sunday hope to be. but experience defender of silly but it will be rolled out of the euro two thousand and twelve championships after he's failed to recover from a fire injury and had courage to count the cats will be praying that his side
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doesn't pick up any more injuries especially in defense as that's really besides problem position but as you'll see was a sure start of a national team who are not blessed with a number of great central defenders. more fierce says it's up to the team to try and make up a bit as your skis loss suggesting how to share the camp is in good spirits at the moment it's only the start and there's a long way to go there was an emotional managed to perform well then this will certainly help to leave proceedings moving towards him and we will certainly be supporting him all the way into the sea these absence opens the door for a number of new players. because of injury like the madonna and roman shot almost going to take the following one place but now go for almost certain to be on the plane to poland the possession is not just all deserved to be killed up earlier but now too much of that series injury also have a great chance of making the euros very sorry conversely going on as no one wants to pick up an injury at this time. there were only twenty four players on the
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training pitch today as fate posed for their team photo whoever that number is soon going to write a twenty point good marriages minor prison. lisbon to stage a film an advertisement and arriving to join up with the russian national team squad. will spur latest news on mary's mother. is obscene. i'm not sure about the globe but he decision to go so does good i mean you must be quite pleased about that play i want to show you the windswept russian law you showed a lot of those above russians as well as very good for all of us but didn't agree to go into at the cat has to mean it and it's got to be your it's a question that plays to the pain and increase production in. its failure to show themselves especially playing to. richard m. daley for eternity. well let's have a quick look at where russia will be playing their opening group a match against
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the czech republic on june the ice it will be at the municipal stadium based in the western polish city of najaf and can hold just under forty five thousand fans the design was inspired by a chinese lantern mo brought up itself is a thriving commercial center built on twelve islands which are connected by over one hundred bridges. now if you're wondering what the score might be in russia's first game look no further than this elephant. zoom correctly predicted chelsea would be by in munich in the champions league final he apparently did it by picking up an apple which represented the blues and is now the official animal to start for the euros will have some way to go to match the predictive powers of paul the octopus he tipped eight when i was at the two thousand and ten world cup. well i would have predicted montpellier is first french title with thousands of fans turning out on monday to celebrate their unexpected trial of the party took place
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in the city's main square with players and staff called upon stage to stand deafening cheers from the crowd success is a big achievement for the southern french side who picked the big spending barry side to the title by just three points doing it with nine homegrown players while sixty eight year old club president knew we need even fulfill his promise to dye his hair and sport i think and if his club lifted trophy. now. on to american football on the denver broncos have had their first real taste of new signing peyton manning with the superstar quarterback showing no hint of the long term injury which had sidelined him for a whole season while manning joined the broncos as a free agent after being released by the indianapolis colts the human capital of the board in two thousand and eleven but it's the no injury that had sidelined him for so long seems to have healed and the four time m.v.p. took part in a fast paced workout with his new teammates. this is one step in this kind of different phases you know training camp to be your next phase but low shoulder pads
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and preseason regular season so i'm going to take it one step at a time but i was excited for this day to get here before watching the film although when i watch the film. after this and learn from it and see some good things you always see some things you can improve on and i will go from there. and sebastopol now and in the n.b.a. playoffs the oklahoma city thunder have beaten the l.a. lakers to reach the western conference finals there one hundred six points to ninety one on monday night giving them a four one series win to set up a clash with top seeds and san antonio next sunday and elsewhere the boston celtics beat philadelphia one hundred one eighty five to lead their best of seven series three to run fast top scoring to the celtics with twenty seven points. i just think it was just me taking advantage of my opportunity you know they've been doubling paul and we've got a few good players on the team that are going to focus on sort of a love me open tonight and i was i would hit the shot. now with the twenty twelve
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london games starting in just under nine weeks time four time olympic swimming champion alexander pop off we part of the russian representatives in the olympic torch relay which is now underway across the u.k. the forty year old is one of eight thousand people from all over the world who have the honor of running three hundred metres for the torch which has eight thousand homes and it's designed to represent each mile and each run up on its journey and. as well as famous sports men and women of the mantel story the great grandson of russian writer well also be taking part along with a very proud. it's not just for me in the night it's for every torchbearer it's a no no it's a privilege and it's prestige to be part of a thousand to be one of the eight thousand. torch bearers and to be part of it and become a truly. well elsewhere the fastest man in the us you saying bolt has reiterated his plans to set an unlikely mark of nine point four seconds in the one hundred
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meters that's the london olympics the twenty five year old world record holder is currently preparing for the golden spike meeting in the czech city of a style that later this week the jamaican is using this event among others to a climatized to european weather and he says he's proposing anything that would interfere with his title defense in the one hundred and two hundred meters just off of. a much much more experience i know what it takes to be a champion i've been through it all i must say. enjoy being on top of the work from injury back to being the best so i've been through everything i think for about experience i think i'm ready for anything sharp can show me an injury can charge me and different things. and that's all such as ninety nine days to go before record attendances are expected in london for the paralympics and there's plenty of interest here in russia where the british embassy is working host to
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close the upcoming games as possible. with the opening ceremony of the paralympic games only one hundred days away the british embassy in the russian capital staged a commemorative event in the ronald mcdonald sports center for kids with disabilities is just one of many such events organized by the u.k.'s diplomatic missions in russia we've been working very closely with a parliamentary committee we see them all but this great pleasure i believe on the specific project with schools in st petersburg where i opened the event recently and we have this event here today and we just want to make sure that we take the opportunity of being the host for the paralympics to work closely with your federation and the paralympic movement in russia has come a long way from the days when people with disabilities were practically shunned by society and saw good signs and now they're viewed as top athletes and their own rights with some among the favorites to clinch podium places in london while the
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russians are largely under rivals in the winter games other nations aren't in the summer paralympic sports stadiums number from forty and fifty become petition and some sports is very strong because there are three times more participants than and unfortunately for various reasons fresher is not true presented as the fans china will be one of the favorites in london because of the strong government program and of course the hosts who will turn out in huge numbers about what we'll do our best to these young men and women could be russia's medal hopes for the teacher but for young to compete at this year's summer games sporting glory could still lie ahead for them as interest at the paralympic box office continues to grow to. the upcoming forty five a gallon. promising to be one of the best extended straight as according to british media reports over one million tickets have already been sold that's certainly something to live up to their russian winter burning pics and saw in
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a couple of years a month off remark see most all. of us all the sports news life and.
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