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tv   [untitled]    September 29, 2012 12:30pm-1:00pm EDT

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the infrastructure up to modern standards if these modern is ation after it's not very popular with tourists if you come into a very authentic place like non-sport it should stay the way it is that would be my wish i mean that's the part of the a little you know authentic tradition here. i should not i would not like to have it in a shiny condition to be honest this time to change even for the better is not always good for business something that even a local band has become attuned to when they try to add morning russian songs to die repertoire the audience called older wanted to hear it was a song comfortably familiar. hello and welcome to on the money where the business of russia is business i'm
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peter lavelle go east young man go east we are told this is the plan russia wants to go in search of markets and trade how realistic is this and over what time period where does the russian economy stand in this turbulent world. to discuss this i'm joined by ben eris he's the editor in chief of business new europe and erich krauss he's an independent asset manager all right first gentlemen let's go place your marker this is our the beginning of our program eric in a few words where or where is oil prices going to the stable or up. it's going to be stable next couple of years. ok what about the implications of that later china harder not so soft landing. it fly. it's slowing down by this because it's maturing i mean this is a natural evolution so still growth growth but not quite as fast a commodity prices are probably going to be under pressure for the next because of
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the bends answer on that for oil and that when i think it'll be probably weak for the next eighteen months then strong. again it's it's a function of the global economy is slowing down and so that's going to put and ok my favorite topic eurozone crisis eurozone crisis been delays but only for a year and then it's back ok there's optimism euro zone it's not predictable it's not an economic question it's a political question the europeans can save themselves if they so choose ok we're talking about saving countries obama reelection definitely yeah sure ok where is russia's position in this volatile world it's a place it's always been it is a major developing economy it's halfway between asia and europe it grows much faster than belgium but slower than china yeah the story is unchanged it continues to grow and develop it's being slowed down by the problems but that's all it's just having to wade through the pain mount point of using. bad idea
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quantitative easing probably necessary but you're going to have to get off it at some point ok and the attractiveness last question the attractiveness of emerging markets are. terrible except that they're better than any other markets out there was being rebuilt and they were emerging markets are taking their rightful place and people have to wake up to that ok now we're also joined by simon fenton fletcher he's a portfolio manager with renaissance asset management before we go to my two other guests here but take a look at russia's turn to the east. this month the russian city of lot of us stock hosted the apec summit for the first time since russia joined the group fifteen years ago the lot of us took some meta was and if it suited for russia to diversify its night throughout the asia pacific rim curan clee europe accounts for around the heart of russia's foreign trade well treat stands at about a quarter but that is. by media. russia's trade with europe accounts for fifty
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one percent of the whole world its trade with the asia pursue. region makes up twenty four percent however with economic growth in the asia pacific so much russia's trade with this region will also increase this doesn't mean that we should stay idle and just watch as things unfold we understand these processes and should adapt to them are we preparing for this yes we are how we are expanding infrastructure capabilities this sun we also resulted in a number of new investment projects such as the launch of them as assembly line in florida was a hyundai engine plant and many others asia pacific companies have already penetrated the russian economy and their products and services are in high demand we suppose there is a huge demand in russian japanese solutions. when we came here we found that unfortunately cables take the technology is not developed here so they found out for us to be huge fear to develop at the moment. in several projects such as
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construction of the mystery dome and said it better to be build by world cup two thousand and eighteen as well as we are providing engineering solutions for construction and so if you qualify you to go with the chief then many more asian business is done through russia the government says this would not happen at the expense of the country european partners nonetheless as the euro crisis drags on countries like russia have every reason to believe that it's trade eastward that is yourself undermining artsy. simon i'm going to go to you. lot of us say they want to turn to the east but most most of russia's trade is to the west the european union how realistic and what timeframe we looking at turning to the east we're absolutely right i mean at least fifty percent of russian trade is through to you but europe has been going through absolute turmoil over the past few years and it looks like it continue for the sable foreseeable future growth
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rates asia office a substantial opportunities it's one of the few. growing regions in the in on in the world. is going to occur it's going to have an enormous amount of infrastructure cost associated with that but i mean it's just it is the natural natural route for russian trade and it's the most obvious way ok ben it's a natural route i agree but the cost is immense ok let's remind our viewers pipelines don't you can't twist them around and move them in a different direction to build a new one ok the coast is in for tests and more compared to mount of money we're talking about with trade i mean i think we have to put this all into context you know the much vaunted globalization place they were at the very beginning of the process. goldman sachs to report that total global trade was worth thirty percent of g.d.p. global g.d.p. ten years ago now it's hard it will be eighty percent in the next decade and we're talking about hundreds of trillions of dollars and so in that context russia to
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actually focus on trade this is going to be the enormous tectonic change that's going on in the world and it's exactly right and what you need to do you need to put the infrastructure into place but once you've done that you're going to see enormous volumes of money goods i think involve us like i saw a lot of infrastructure there but i think it's not there's not even a question involved here i mean the west is the past east the east is the future i mean it sounds like a bit now latino but i've been saying so for the last decade or so russia has got to look east if it wants to keep up with the global development also you know i just i would like to keep this in perspective though in apec russia is a member of apec it is accounts for one point five percent of apec trade i mean let's go back there's a lot to do here there's a lot to do and a lot of the infrastructure is going to be financed with asian money the chinese are you know overwhelmed with dollar reserves they don't know what to do with their
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reserves and in numerous countries they. our prefunding all sorts of export projects they're doing it in argentina they do it in brazil they do it in the ukraine so the chinese under proper conditions will certainly finance a lot of the means which will bring them what they're looking for and. it's the synergy made in heaven between china and russia saluted the russians have the roots and they have the rovers the raw materials and the chinese have the money and that the money to live in was you know easy going to the country and simon let me go to you i mean russia over the last twenty years has finally attained its economic sovereignty is it willing to go into such broad partnerships with other countries and china has more money than god right now i mean but they have certain ways of doing business their own workers their own ideas on trade and what direction i mean there's an opportunity here but there are some kind of risks as well yeah i mean it certainly has more money than god but at the same time it has severe lack of natural resources what i mean bennett mentioned the natural resource and natural
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gas and japan and south korea is something like four times the cost that it is and it is in the u.s. it's nearly sixty percent higher than it is in europe so i mean there are the absolute advantages for russia forging ahead with the infrastructure projects and trying to push out its energy energy resources i mean that makes absolute sense the real problem i think is more psychological and political the economic economic economically it's a no brainer the problem is that both both sides there's a certain distrust there is a history of misunderstandings between the soviet union and china the russians still are a bit afraid of the yellow peril the chinese aren't too sure what government they're going to be dealing with so it's taking time to build the bridges and putin has been working assiduously at this for a number of years and we're beginning to see the fruits of that now i mean russian trade with china has gone from
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a fast growing and in significance to sas growing and now very significant it's russia's largest trading partner. i mean is the russian government doing the right thing for a private enterprise to get involved in this. it's still a lot of work to do i mean you know with the infrastructure it's hard to do business however i mean increasingly like eric said i mean this is not a natural marriage of love between these two countries but increasingly we're seeing a pragmatism coming in i mean the whole lot of our stock event was the showcase the russians put their flag in the ground and said this is our top priority we want well you know you bring up a point i think it's very interesting i mean is this just some are also a little bit of grandstanding with the were there dissatisfaction with what's going on in the eurozone because you know whatever happens in the euro zone hits this country very strong is the fundamental part of russian foreign policy and they said from the beginning that they wanted a multi-polar relations to govern the world and not the uni polar in other words the states and now we've progressed to the point where this sort of political ideology is being manifest on the ground in terms of building bridges and roads and
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rails and i ceased tying these economies together and so it's in the russian industry it's not so much the turning away from the west it's just the opportunity to the east and we're going to build that out and it's a little west is also scored a spectacular own goal they have been antagonizing russia for the last fifteen years and russia basically threatens no one except itself occasionally if the problem is if there is going to be a threat to the dominance of the west it is not russia it is from china russia is a status quo power china is a rapidly growing power which is seeking to extend its influence and they have forced russia into closer and closer political alliance with china and that is in c. so i'm going to give you the last word before we go to the break go ahead i'm in complete agreement with mr gryce that i mean you know the the coming together of these two is that it's the chinese the chinese growth is phenomenal and it's how it's had the relationship between russia and china as it is there's always been fractured and
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sometimes not exactly friendly in the slightest the evolution of that will be. interesting to say the least i'm sure that the u.s. politicians are watching this with with fear in many ways ok all right john i'm going to jump in here after a short break we'll continue our discussion and much is economy and much more state . the french invasion of russia has started again after two hundred years up at the. sub jet the emperor napoleon has arrived from overseas to lead the army i
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have to really take my time to prepare myself to get it right i know. the bloody battle near moscow is going to start over. james brown will reveal the victor the soldiers are back to do it all again. but you know persian twenty twelve on r.t.e. wealthy british style stock. market. find out what's really happening to the global economy. for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines kaiser report on. the
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welcome back come on the money on people about to mind you we're talking about russia's trade reorientation all right ben if i go back to you i mean i was invited us like i was in apec i was extremely impressed and what they've done i mean it's vast they have built a whole new city here ok but it's a bike a baseball field will they come i mean what are they going to what do foreign investors looking for i mean you could be looking at the joint venture is there because a lot of us are doesn't have a lot of really modern facilities. where they're trying to build they're trying to build a third capital the asian capital i mean it's a huge chunk of the territories in asia and very must give us the same sort of that and the investors will come if there's opportunity i mean there's
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a market their manufacturing base is a possibility and to the whole pacific rim certainly it's trial transport hub i mean you're seeing it's one of the most amazing ports you could ever imagine it's very it happens to be placed in the midst of the world's largest trade. highway that basically the advantage of the countries which have done that's the developing countries which have done best are those where they are placed physically geographically in the midst of the high trade floats this is where a lot of africans out of south america it's been left behind because they're out of the physical flow like the bus stop is right in the middle of it here but it's very far away from that so i mean what kind of opportunity you think foreign investors will be looking at if we look at the third the third. brush of lot of our stuff well one of the most important things that there is there's a labor force it's highly educated obviously the university has been set up that twenty five thousand students one of the key things will be fine because the population of ready thought of a lot of very slow stock fell from
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a million to six hundred thousand key is having a highly trained and skilled workforce and that's one of the primary things that and the fact that i mean obviously russia's skolkovo project will probably have a far east and a far eastern wing into it and there will be the make the most logical sense sort of mentioned the russians of reopen the so-called northern routes this is the shipping route that goes not round africa to asia but it goes over the top and it's like two thirds the distance and so it's faster and cheaper and that that's already started because of the ice breakers nuclear powered icebreakers and those trade flows that way they only increases voted on stocks imports and so you know if you're sending goods from asia to europe and so you don't. on global warming benefits at least one country in the world right yeah i mean as putin said moscow with palm trees what's so bad about that. change gears a little bit take a look at russian perspective here so i mean how is russia doing it compared to its emerging market peers ok because we still have a lot of turbulence out there yeah absolutely i mean russia is highly impacted by
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the commodity prices it's brazil and its base had actually fallen off a cliff and india is doing very badly. i mean we're having rolling blackouts across india china i mean china we haven't you know between seven point two and seven point five percent growth i was talking to a construction bank of china and they said that that feels like an absolute recession thank you imagine it's seven it's a great recession a great i mean seven a half percent is just i mean our profit friends in western europe would die for that so yes seven and a half percent but it feels very very bad and that's not is not a great thing erica so rusher in comparison is doing now we've had a slowdown but where if you know would run for four percent you can still see that the consumer spending here in russia no and i think it ben you pointed out earlier i mean we want to know when you have a dozen. so the employment in moscow is at an all time low all time five point two percent. of the economy is running at full capacity and. russia has basically you know the several fives we're looking at about five percent inflation we're looking about five percent unemployment that we were looking at five percent growth maybe
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four percent growth now plus a budget surplus or at least no deficit russia is extremely undead it has the best macros of any country almost any country in the world right now maybe except for norway think that's because you know and you know we're all old hands you think that's because of the one nine hundred ninety s. because of the governor because of it was there's the despair i don't you miserable experience the the meltdown and all that it left them extremely fearful of becoming in that the way the germans are scared of inflation the russians are now scared to death so they've been hyper conservative also because we have a political system which is that of a work in process the government has not had to buy support from the populace until now so they have been able to limit their spending whereas the europeans have just been having to you know keep buying the support of the lower middle classes and you see with it eventually it could bend the reform project i mean it may mean we've been watching it for quite a long time now with this turbulence how did how putin doing with his reforms
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because you have these two things you have to balance all of the time the first thing to say is the russian government's never been good at doing everything at once and so they focus in on the areas topics big given the you know the vertical so much capital but on the things that they're working on for example the capital markets that's about to be transformed russia will be hooked up to euro clear and you can buy russian submarine bonds from your chair in london and that could be transformational i mean the amount of money going into sovereign debt here will triple in the first few months just as people rebound and. brings up a very good point i mean it's more globalization of finance but you know there's a lot of contained in out there i mean this is something of thing the russians have to. worry about yeah i mean absolutely i mean the markets take a turn for the worst and you know this sovereign crisis in europe and still completely explode that will have an absolutely detrimental effect on russia unfortunately i mean the world is so into combined fifty percent of trade to be said to be said to be for when it when europe europe takes a nosedive into
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a serious recession russia will soften on fortunately looking after the. yeah we have to differentiate a bit between financial flows trade flows here and. also has a very deep internal market russia is increasingly producing things for russians everybody talks about oil what they're missing is that i think the most important story maybe agriculture right now russia and the soviet union was the world's great agricultural importer and now russia is becoming a major force first in grains now they're going to be exporting chicken fairly soon and they're basically going to become self-sufficient in beef so russia can feed itself it can feed asia and this is going to have to be a transformation of the economy you know because it's only paint it's one of the interesting things during the soviet period almost everything people in the soviet union used and bought was made in the soviet union some stuff from eastern europe east german stuff today you go to stores what is made in in russia for for russians
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i mean my mind it's coming up but i mean it's still pretty spicy i mean it's been difficult in so much as because of the increases in wages and per capita the cost of labor is going up and up and so that stage when they could have invested in line manufacturing and made things for themselves because they were excluded from the bluto it didn't really happen and now people are actually too rich and too expensive in order to make it worthwhile investing into that kind of thing when you can go to ukraine or kazakstan or somewhere else so russia's got a bit of a problem there but then that's why the governments focused on high tech and really that is the only solution they have to do the high value added things and they're pouring money into the other problem is china has sort of blocked the first run on the latter countries used to go from making cheap transistor radios to making computer disk drives to making jet fighters the chinese and asia in general has occupied the light manufacture now if you go to the shop here most of your fast moving consumer goods are made in russia right food stuffs because
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a lot of companies they could be for frequently foreign companies don't know want and the like. but. they're producing in russia the automobile sector is most almost entirely made in russia under foreign marques anything that contraflow long distance like food is made here because things because within that's been there and that's another place where the reform process has worked very well and very well and the state has encouraged and pushed that and everybody is now doubling tripling quadrupling their production so i mean we're doing one automobile plant per year in russia we're going to lose russian language by russian cars ok simon let me go back to you i mean ben made the point you think that the russians have to jump into the high tech and words more value added yeah i mean that it makes absolute sense i mean you know the days of a lot of code dominating the eastern europe are gone and i think russia has thank goodness for yeah absolutely you know the truth and maybe not but. you know i actually think that that the push into high tech and you know acquiring silicon
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valley type skills russia has some highly highly educated engineers and software engineers i think it's a four it's a move forward step forward and who knows where innovations have come from that science i mean there was a survey just out last week saying russia has the best educated population in the world i mean there's problems in the academic education sector but the population remains best educated and the other hand the biz the way business operates in russia is just not up to scratch there are some small businesses which are doing brilliantly well there are some wonderful stories but by and large a lot has got to be done to improve the business climate so that russian invention inventions can be developed can be commercialized can be manufactured in russia we're still a long way simon last time we did this program or in between time my group went on vacation and we went to a lot of our stock there was one story that dominated the the papers and the internet that was pussy riot and none of this what we've been talking about here where it's russia's political risk because that's the only story we heard for about what six weeks or so as russia's political risk changed whatsoever because of that
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or what i would call russia's kone two thousand and twelve i mean i think there's a. the hypocrisy of a sore sore in the western press. in the u.k. where there were the riots during the summer a couple years ago and we had instant instant courts and cameron saying that we must put these people in prison and yet with where we are with russia you know all of a sudden i would push the right everybody condemning the verdict the girls were very stupid there probably wasn't the best choice of place but it was a western western plot where the western press just went a little bit ballistic ok eric while they were you wrote a little bit about this basically this was god's gift to the kremlin puts you right because the russian every man i mean the guy who works in an automobile factory the woman who sells food in the shop and they don't talk to western journalists by the way to them now the russian opposition is associated with people who defy all the holiest pay place in russian religion and who carried out
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a series of extremely obscene acts and then broadcast them on the internet in some sort of a weird political protest and this is in many ways unfortunate because russia needs an opposition every country needs an opposition ben last word you have to put it in context i mean the west made a big deal out of it in russia eighty percent of russians consider themselves to be orthodox and people were genuinely shocked about the desecration the cathedral and the poll say more than half russians think because you've got what they deserved and that's the context of the story here which is totally different from what any report is only stupid because if you're trying to raise the russian people up against the putin regime you don't start by attacking their fundamental belief structure it's done on that point many thanks to my guests and thanks to our viewers for watching on the money see you next time on our team.
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good leverage tory. to build a most sophisticated. mission to teach me. this is why you should. only. courageous and creative.
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and full and public speaking. a few european bodybuilders against millions which immigrants. don't seem so serious now. this could be a real threat. to. european extremists.
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