tv Breaking the Set RT November 27, 2013 10:29am-11:01am EST
ideal has been struck well it will be some kind of deal there can be no doubt this first step agreement between iran and the great powers is of historic significance it could become the foundation for far reaching geopolitical shift in the region but have no illusions the naysayers are intent on scuttling the deal and the use of force we're told remains on the table. to cross talk the un nucular you i'm joined by my guest richard white's in washington he's a senior fellow and director of the center for political military analysis at the hudson institute also in washington we have daniel mcadams he's the executive director of the ron paul institute and in bangkok we cross to pepe escobar he's an investigative journalist and author right gentlemen cross-talk rules and effective means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it pepe if i can go to you first in bangkok what do you make of the deal is it a historic deal and will it go anywhere of course it's historic i'm sure all our
viewers remember real man the goal to around the neo-cons ten years ago before during and after the invasion of iraq bunch of losers real men do deals with their around so this is the number one i would say the only one so far victory for the obama administration it could be the beginning of obama's nixon in china movement but it's a long long shot we have six months ahead of us we're going to have the saudi wahhabi israeli. while i could say link but it's not to link in fact it's an axis badly disguised axis trying to derail this by all means necessary we're going to have the neo cons trying to they were going to have a lot of republicans trying to derail that we're going to have a lot of us congress paid by israeli lobby trying to derail it but we have political will on the part of the obama administration. political will in europe
which is also very important and political will in tehran rouhani if in of course the so-called reformers around them against the hardliners have basically revolutionary guards but it's going to be. don excuse me to you fact and fasten your seatbelts ok richard this is you know nixon in china analogies being brought up in the media and i tend to agree with pepe this could be the only positive thing we've seen in the obama administration do foreign policy once in a while but the odds are against him domestically at least at this point what are your thoughts i'm not sure the odds are against and domestically the congress has gone along with not connecting any new sanctions at least for a while they are now going through the motions of preparing a sanctions resolution but that would be use only if the six months do not result in a longer and it was just a this is just basically a negotiating tactics as a means of warning iran that if he didn't give talks do not succeed then even
more sanctions might follow but i think that the president will get a grace period i mean i'm not sure of this in the store agreement or the nixon and china analogy holds but we just don't know and certainly it's a modest risk for potentially big gain so i think it's i think people are going to give the president the benefit of doubt here for a while ok danielle what do you think about that because the relationship between the united states and iran has been deplorable for thirty three years is this a turning point is it possible i mean should we be afraid to succeed well i think what's happening is that the the media and certainly congress is overselling this what this is a very very early confidence building measure there aren't substantive changes iran is taking some minor symbolic steps the u.s. is releasing the minor amount of money seven billion over the over the next six months half of that is in assets that have been seized i think the media will try
to overplay this and the real danger peter is that we're going to go back to i think it was zero six all over again where you had the beginning of some confidence building measures in iran agreed to suspend to observe the additional protocols of the nonproliferation. and in exchange it got no sanctions relief whatsoever so when they suspended their voluntary observation of that additional protocol that was viewed in congress and in the us media as oh here they are going at it again so there is a big danger that that the media will sell this as some sort of a final agreement so if nothing happens in six months and they go back to the status quo then it will be an additional. room for additional sanctions on iran and pepe if i go back to you in bangkok israeli prime minister netanyahu says this is a historic mistake but that tells a lot of people that if it's a historic mistake in his opinion it must be a good deal. look at the historic mistake is p.v. himself you know he is the mad dog. sometimes least in the middle east everybody
knows that then on a lying movement russia china the bulk of the developing world the only one who does know about this is us public opinion most of it and all busily us corporate media so he's going to be kicking and screaming like a need for the next six months on a daily basis but seriously the grown ups are paying attention russia and china and that this is something that we should develop in our discussion debate in the long run benefits for i do the whole of you resham this is the big this is the beginning of the new great game in your asia involving russia china the us iran turkey the real big players is right is the detail in saudi arabia come on it's an acronym ism one hundred percent ok didn't get into that you want to jump in now go ahead here break in a little bit yeah i just wanted to point out something that pepe said earlier he
talked about american public opinion what's interesting just in the last day or so there was a rest news and poll that showed that the majority of americans are backing this interim agreement so we might be seeing is a replay of what we saw in that toward the end of the summer with the syria situation where the vast majority of the american people are opposed to what attack it's very possible the americans are tired of this confrontational attitude toward iran and syria and then we may be demanding something different and in that case there may actually be a danger of a backlash and further resentment toward israel if israel continues to do what it's doing which is sending an army of lobbyists to the halls of capitol hill telling all sorts of horror stories and of you know getting american congressmen and senators to oppose this deal by any means necessary so there may be a danger of a backlash americans are behind this deal with iran they're cautiously optimistic. richard it's clearly quite interesting if you look at this interim agreement and
neither side gave away very much it seems to me that it's more it's more about trust in it's baby steps of taking trust and it's the best way of diplomacy you take a small step the other one takes a small step and you think this is what this six months is really all about because i mean it looks like there are some backsliding on capitol hill and the end in the white house wondering if it's really truly possible to get an agreement because we've been told for decades you can't deal with you can't negotiate with a rainy and suddenly that's different isn't it. well i think that the way you phrased as why we're having this try you know try before you buy six months that there are people who are you can't cross the reigning government and therefore you need to take a smaller in term and cream and see how that goes before you agree to a larger package and i agree that's probably the right tactic. i'm not sure though if we can so easily dismiss the terms i suspect that a lot of what we seeing in the end term agreement would find its way into any
comprehensive agreement in terms of increased fare for cation and transparency that what the iranian nuclear activities are in terms of limits on the stand and intensity of iranian enrichment sanctions relief and so on and so i think that a lot of that what we're seeing now would probably be find its way into an interim agreement and of course they can always roll over the interim agreement for another six months if they have to and so on and then you know again if i go back to you in washington it's all of a it's all about enrichment because we have some countries in the world that say iran has the right to enrichment and other countries say they do and so it's there's a small number of countries in the world is iran doesn't have the right to enrichment which is that is really nonsensical because they are members of the nonproliferation treaty but you still have people in washington obviously in israel saying the same thing and i want to talk to pepe later about saudi arabia but it's about enrichment daniel well in fact there are very few countries in the world that don't believe you iran has the right to enrich uranium in fact when the us was
negotiating the nonproliferation treaty back in the late sixty's the us insisted that article four explicitly provided for the enrichment of uranium and if you read article four and you have any sort of brain you realize that the word production of nuclear fuel for the use of nuclear energy production means enrichment it's not about some fairies coming down and giving it to you so it's it's impossible to read the article for and not see that it provides. richmond ok richard go ahead jump in go ahead rick i think the thank you i think the argument is not so much that there rand didn't have that right it's that iran has taken activities which now call that right into question because you're not supposed to engage in nuclear activities that could lead to a weapon if you're not a if you didn't already have a nuclear weapon the time to sign it is because it was signed it's not true and there's argument there rain in activity in the past some indication they were
testing designs for a nuclear warhead for example and that would call into question whether they not put that right of enrichment under suspension at least until more information about their past activities comes to light and safeguards against future activities like that pippi is what do you see fit going on in iran i mean how much how much stonewalling can the revolutionary guards for example you know put put a stop on this because we're focusing all on washington right now. yeah for them oh this is this is the most important part the internal situation in iran i've been to run many times i'm in contact with a lot of people in different areas from foreign ministry to hardliners in fact even political prisoners and at that moment pick on census is rouhani one supreme leader ayatollah khamenei gave him a green light and he delivered so this means for the next six months there's going to be no internal opposition but this depends on both sides following what he
proposed in the interim agreement the u.s. respecting their side in the end you know and the europeans of course respecting their side of the bargain and what's going to happen during dinner go see a shift doing this next six months until may two thousand and fourteen if the iranians see that this is going nowhere in terms of respecting their rights to enrich me i was sorry i have to jump in here if you know that you were going to go with the word train and then ask is actually a break we'll continue our discussion on iran state with our team.
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happens on this island that makes them return to it again and again. saves them. join me james brown on a journey for the soul. only see. you know the only thing we want. is a. welcome back to cross talk we're all things we considered on peter lavelle to mind you were discussing the nuclear deal with iran. ok richard going to go back to you in washington i think it's kind of tantalizing to think what if the united states in iran and its allies and we have russian the international community actually get a deal
a real deal with the ground not an interim thing but going beyond it it changes the geo political space in the region i mean we've seen the united states and its allies demonize and marginalized when for decades now this agreement could normalize around quote unquote in the international community and that's something significant way beyond any kind of nuclear deal yes the logical relationship between iran and the west is that of alignment. strategically the iranians would wander off shore balancer to help them against close and threats economically the natural part of iran are the west they would export their natural resources oil and etcetera and receive advanced technology in the west but because of the story and other developments as lyman it's been broken so the dominant foreign actors in the russian and the rain economy example are russia and china and so you would logically expect iran to realign with the west in this at
a deal could bring that help bring that process that bow but the legacy of history is a new very difficult to overcome. speak to that because it was a realignment because the the the two major countries that are again. this is israel and saudi arabia they don't want this realignment at all and this is really what it's all about they want to keep iran isolated and israel probably with saudi arabia would like the united states somebody else to attack iran but it's the likelihood of that happening is getting smaller at least for the time being. yeah and this is not going to happen this is where the and these are minor players i would like to focus on the major players once again this is the new great game in your asia it has been brewing for the past fifteen years now there's a major realignment in sight number one will the obama administration they have until two thousand and sixteen that's very important finally recognize iran as
a sovereign independent can through we've their own independent foreign policy we still don't know if that is the case we're going to have a definitive deal next year and then we're going to have russia china and iran three independent eurasian independent foreign policy from the west that's a major development if it happens all right turkey very important i wrote about this last week turkey wants to position itself as the crossroads of energy transit energy from east to west for that they need the iranian guess with no went to sanctions iran will sell even more gas to turkey through turkey to europe this is what the europeans say if you talk to europeans in brussels i've been doing this for fifteen years they always say we need iranian gas but we cannot get it because of american sanctions on russia they have already a strategic partnership with iran china they already have an energy and commercial partnership with russia is going to be even more increased if iran is normalized
let's put it this way so the whole arc from southwest asia to east asia is going to change completely this is what the grownups in the room and outside the rooms are waiting daniel this is what pepe something about it's a major realignment here i mean i'm looking at all of our faces here i can see you and you know what we're more or less the same age that kind of alignment is something that's never been thought of you know look being aligned with the rand or at least not be. having iran as the great enemy and this is something that's very new and you know gentlemen ever since the end of the cold war a lot of things have happened the none of us ever expected so daniel detente with iran. yeah but it's by no means certain and i think what's important to remember is the structure of u.s. sanctions against iran some of these sanctions were imposed by executive order therefore president obama can lift them himself some of them are passed as
legislation with some limited waivers that obama has some wiggle room but quite a bit of the sanctions are written into u.s. law and the president cannot change those that would require congress to change those and i can see a scenario there's a huge danger of the president going over to geneva or wherever and signing a permanent deal coming back home and having congress reject the deal and that would make the u.s. first of all the laughingstock of the world and second of all at that point i think these view would come into place anyway which is that the international sanctions regime would break down at that point it barely holds together now the u.s. is barely able to hold it together now for all of the reasons that pepe outlined of the world is waiting to have an economic relationship with iran the world needs it it's good for the world so if the deal fails the sanctions regime will break down if the deal succeeds hopefully the sanctions will completely break down as well ok
richard let's talk about the role of congress here in the in the israeli lobby i mean how much of a headache is this really going to be for obama because you know there are people who say that they're all powerful other people say they're not as powerful as you think but this issue is very important to the israeli lobby in the united states are they going to throw everything at it. i think we've already seen that's not going to be the case i think you've seen a lot of the members of congress have said that they i mean there where israel's concerns and then stay share these concerns independent of any lobbying what have you there's a lot of people who are very wary about dealing with iran in this and the implications of that but as i said it's a modest agreement it's not if he fails it's not a major change from where we are now and certain so i think the congress as far as i can tell is going to let the president try try as approach see no sanctions for six months see what happens and now if we face
a comprehensive agreement then maybe it'll be a different scenario me with a much more name and opposition but i don't see that yet ok pepe you want to jump in go ahead pepe and. in thailand to go ahead you know i want to i want to jump ina yet. compliment our other guests who are seeing fact i would say that the obama administration and rouhani they have a window of opportunity of three years in fact two thousand and fourteen fifteen sixteen until the next presidential elections in two thousand and sixteen if they can evolve towards a comprehensive deal and their response to call will on both sides they will be strengthened to fly u.s. congress new york some republicans parts of the israeli lobby the wahhabi petrodollar lobby you name it in the u.s. and inside iran of course people who are allied with the hardcore factions of the revolutionary guards which add them at the moment they're being called thing by the
supreme leader himself but imagine the possibility of the supreme leader dying which is not absurd within the next three years we could probably have a much more lenient leader given even more leeway for the rule to clinch the deal and if at all a company stays in this position for the next three years he gave them a green light. this is for a city own last it's he already said that two days ago in fact if our sovereign rights are not infringed we are open to all sorts of the negotiations so you know how many you know he is derided the in d.c. as a as a fanatic he is not is an extremely rational player he saw that what the ahmadinejad government did for eight years was completely absurd it was not working so you know and don't forget your opinion diplomats they are first class diplomats i had some
interactions with them they are among the most sophisticated diplomats in the world and i'm sure john kerry would be able to a pass that when he would be talking about his interactions with saudi richard if i go to you in washington what are the biggest stumbling blocks over the next six months for you because when there's going to be more inspections this is iran's is going to open up more lowered in richmond and other issues that iran can easily do and be watched ok what's what who could fill in the monkey wrench what are issues that could derail him during this interim period in your mind. i don't see the interim period being much or a problem i think more of what's going to be the problem is converting it to longer term and that could feed back and negatively affect the interim agreement because it's not clear to me yet has a rand for ever gone the desire the operation of try and richmond to twenty percent are they only going to accept five percent forever are they cannot continue to keep their centrifuges detached even though they've built them and rather than
put them into the cycle are they going to adopt the additional protocol can the u.s. remove all the sanctions as daniel pointed out i mean some of them are executive order that's easy but a lot of them. require an act of congress street people i mean all those things they'd have to do and to reach a final agreement and it could be if that looks like they're not going to do that then it will feed back negatively and around but as i said i think the interim by itself it's a modest effort and therefore i'm not anticipating major problems of execution gagnon what do you think about that next six months what do we get what do you expect and i think richard makes a good point you know the the danger really as i said earlier is that the media sells it says this is the permanent deal here in iran as richard points out can never go back to enriching to a higher percentage for example for medical isotopes or for other for other means
you know the n.p.t. it does not say to what level you're radium can be enriched they can rich enrich it as much as they like they simply cannot divert that enriched uranium for the use in nuclear weapon when he was just happy you know that you know when you give me the word here just want to give pepe the last word here pepe all the while all the while we even meeting is reputed to be this is a good question for ok you know all while you everyone's looking at a rant but it looks like saudi arabia is just going to buy a weapon from pakistan but that doesn't make headlines does it. look the house will solve this on the road to absolute irrelevance it's going to take maybe what one year two three five they're going to have their arab spring over there in the eastern province majority shiite they're going to have their arab spring but returning saudi students that go back to jeddah and riyadh study in the west they say this is completely absurd let's really move there now is this country so their days are numbered absolutely and that's why they're so desperate and very very
important even beyond that of bush our friend bummed out bush who saw that he would control everything in syria launch a war in syria you know it was provoking thing to abandon syrian boman irani you name it he's got nothing and now he's even more desperate and now there's going to be geneva two. about syria and january and bombards goes are not going to be there so house of south by by pushing a deal that point thank you very much gentlemen many thanks to my guests in washington and in bangkok and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r.t. see you next time and remember cross talk rules.
for probably the most complex of. the phenomenon of friendly fire probably. extends back to the invention of gunpowder. and kill a bunch of people in. their families they're really us people. reading. this some of them shoots my brother in the leg not intentional because of it because it was night time or in the morning even the best even the belch shoulders. are going to make mistakes this is this whole idea of brotherhood
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