tv Boom Bust RT July 20, 2017 4:29pm-5:01pm EDT
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it was a. time when the francis is the boss broadcasting around the world from washington d.c. tonight the euro line european central bank how much anticipated one hand interest rate also one hedge fund legend he beat the s. and p. five hundred for years and now he's made a killing in bitcoin as it heads above twenty six hundred today and the state of illinois is in a debt crisis that extends way beyond that it goes across the nation and we are seeing similar problems around the world stand by for us but right now.
the euro jumped to a fourteen month high after european central bank president mario draghi stated that interest rates will remain unchanged he also vowed to continue the e.c.b. as asset purchasing plans for december or even beyond before the speech the euro traded as low as one dollar fourteen cents and that climbed one basis point two one sixty. the highest since january twenty fifth the british pound dipped to nearly one twenty nine the euro has been one of the strongest performing currencies this year up nine point nine percent in two thousand and seventeen point eight percent just this week alone. and future. future pens for nerves will have to work an extra year to collect their retirement in the u.k.
the pension age will be hiked to sixty eight over two years starting in two thousand and thirty seven pension funds currently spend five point two percent of the nation's g.d.p. this is said to affect around seven million people now let's take that further afield now retirement age in china rested sixty with a third of the population hitting that age by two thousand and fifty its pension balance was six hundred two point eight billion dollars at the end of may but the chinese academy of social sciences predicts china's pension surplus will turn into a deficit by two thousand and twenty three over to brazil people retire at fifty eight years of age that pension fund is seventy two point three billion dollars in the red and cash strapped greece had one of the most generous pension pension funds in europe with the retirement age of around sixty five and an eighty five percent of the income was actually replaced by the government for those pensioners now
those are all but cut to the fund has a revolving shortfall of twenty nine billion dollars. the state of illinois managed to pass its first budget in three fiscal years narrowly avoiding a junk credit rating people blame stubborn politicians illinois has some very specific problems of its own but we are seeing themes stretch across the nation and the world first let's touch on the prairie state though joining me now from new york to discuss cate long founder of puerto rico clearing house look how do we get to this place in illinois let's go along partisan lines here illinois reflects much of the nation the democrats and the republicans have decided early different views of the current budget so how do we get to this place. hundred percent right lindsay in the state of illinois the democrats have controlled the house in the state legislature for decades. and on and off they control the senate and they've mainly had is democratic governor and they've just spent and spent and often not collect
enough taxes and most importantly put off their pension liabilities so just like your lead in on the foreign countries illinois has this massive overhang of unfunded pension liabilities that they have to deal with well let's look at some of the specifics here let's go to chicago feeling with urban blight jobs the violence that follows that the budget let's look at some material though my colleague on a particle was in chicago very recently talking about this crisis take a listen to what people have to say. one hundred percent agree with that because when you think about it. if were you fish not on the street they actually were working that's less time spent in having to carry a gun the reality is you have young people who have been neglected for generations there fred this is generational poverty we've we as a society and i'm talking about the government i'm talk about the church and i'm
talking about society in the whole have neglected the communities for a long time this seems to be priority number one for a lot of people do you feel this was actually addressed by the republican governor in his budget proposals. no not too much lindsey because you know that again that's the governor's running the state is responsible for the state budget and. the city is run by a mayor and they're somewhat separate in terms of their budget responsibilities but i agree one hundred percent with your. comments is that you know chicago is a place where there's great wealth there's a lot of corporate headquarters there but there's also these pockets of deep generational poverty there in kabul itself to be healthy in illinois they really it's a goal they need to make a priority for the long term is improving the job opportunities in these communities and helping people be safer really by but there's there's also you know
obviously you point out that the city is a city a city state but at the same time there are funded mandates there are links there and do you feel like this has been a real priority in trying to get this we've got three fiscal years of getting a budget through do you feel like this was actually addressed because this is what the nation's talking about when they talk about chicago and then illinois and addressing something that the theme across our nation do you feel like that was ever really a discussion of the capital so it there has been a historic problem in the state of illinois with the state underfunding teacher pensions in chicago which meant they've had to divert a lot of resources to funding the teachers' pension system and it's an unequal treatment to other communities in illinois and that is something that has been an ongoing fight it was not resolved in this budget that they just completed last week and will continue to plague you know chicago in terms of carrying this heavy you know liability for the teachers' pensions so you know how they resolve it long term
as a state don't just have to keep fighting. ok well let's talk about what it would have happened worst of worst cases if illinois had actually defaulted hasn't happened in many decades here. right so no state in the mainland his default since the one nine hundred thirty s. when arkansas defaulted illinois was not close to defaulting but the credit rating agencies were threatening to downgrade them to joe from investment grade which meant their borrowing costs would go up tremendously so they weren't it wasn't evident that they would default on their bond obligations but the threat that they would become kind of like complera pariah in the bond market was real and what is bad about it let's talk about something as as you mention the bond market drop one hundred ninety here let's we've got it we've got a visual so people can actually see how bad this got illinois state bonds were holding strong and then they got you know the credit lowering and then threatening to junk it. is it possible under these new bonds that it can make
a recovery to pre-decided two thousand and sixteen levels look at that drop it's huge oh yes sure there's definitely the bond market wouldn't issuers get themselves under control and become credit worthy again people absolutely go back and buy those bonds and you could see them go back up to you know far hundred right let's let's take it further afield now obviously we've got a lot of states to we could talk about with that with that sort of a theme right now but let's talk about puerto rico it's the elephant in the room we've got to talk about it. we're seeing you know the spending and the inability to collect the money we're now seeing a massive massive problem what do you think of puerto rico right now. the situation how we're going to go forward from here right so in case of puerto rico like many distressed you know states like illinois or new jersey connecticut these problems you know happened over decades politicians made a lot of promises to constituents in terms of services or buildings or whatever
they didn't collect enough revenue and often in case puerto rico the issue debt to cover some of these expenses you know for things that they had promised it's going to take probably a decade to work out of this problem the congress put a control board in place to oversee the. you know the government of puerto rico and to work on the debt restructuring and this process is kids going to take a long time to untangle all right thank you so much for weighing in on this kate long founder at puerto rico clearing house thanks. greece's economic crisis has been going on for nearly eight years now there's been a few improvements along the way but a growing number of greeks aren't willing to stick it out much longer who has more on that for us now what does labor market looking like to see some shifts there
right so the greek labor market could see a bit of a dip in unemployment which is good but it's having a lot of trouble we're taining workers and encouraging unemployed people to look for work in greece which could obviously have very serious long term effects on its economy and you know the country as a whole and the face of severe economic and political development that's been difficult for greece tour cover from its financial crisis there has been some progress made but it's no longer enough to keep everyone around according to a new study from adecco thirty three percent of unemployed greeks are actively searching for jobs abroad that's up from twenty percent in two thousand and sixteen and eleven percent in two. thousand and fifteen before the crisis respondents said the main reason they sought work outside of greece was for higher wages but during the past two years the goal was better career opportunities as of april the current unemployment rate stands at twenty one point seven percent which is
a welcome decline from its peak in july of two thousand and thirteen at the same time over half of survey respondents said they've been at least once without a job and a quarter of them said they're completely out of the labor force so while the overall decline in joblessness is something to acknowledge a lot of people in greece still don't feel positive about their economic prospects while the impacts of the so-called brain drain are debatable that alone could influence the younger generation in two thousand and sixteen almost half of greek teenagers couldn't find a job that rate has fluctuated over the past year but still remains high at forty five point five percent so if the younger members of society see their parents leaving it might encourage them to do the same and as the european commission recently pointed out young people searching for work are more likely to be offered temporary contract gigs are also less likely to receive pensions now what makes the
situation for them even worse is that youth unemployment is a problem all across the not just in greece. but luckily when you're young you can have a cavalier attitude buy a plane ticket and get out of there which means brain drain another story to grease those new human rights watch report and refugees you tell us about that well it's not a positive report according to the human rights watch greece has been missed identifying child refugees as adults so when they are in the process of classifying them and doing all their paperwork for labeling them as adults which means that they're not getting enough attention and care as they probably should be getting because their children many of them come alone and they're separated from their families so it's leaving a lot of these kids stranded and so. operated from their family that might be elsewhere in greece or in the e.u. and you know at this while greece is not proud of this they have for the past two years now been begging the e.u. to offer more aid and more help to deal with this refugee crisis because they're
really running low on resources as a twelve year old is being cast as an adult or are we talking someone said well in a half yeah so it's sixteen years of age and they're being they're saying they're eighteen or nineteen and they're not you know they're just doing the best they can to bring everyone in and keep everyone alive of course it's not negatively intend intentional but that's you know it's a big problem that's going at it from afar and their course the economic problems thank you so much for the bus. time now for a quick break stick around though when we get back my guests christopher medical research says the u.s. economy is slipping you can prove it as we go to break check out the numbers the closing bell.
and all the world. and all the news companies nearly players but what kind of partners are into america play r t america. r t america. usually just like the real. bad actors. you could never your. the heart. of the world all the world's a stage we are. all a trial where i've spent countless hours warning through documents that tell the story about a. plant worker. media uses to talk about the car. i'm going to create a clear picture about how disturbing how people love for put on the car and model these are stories no one else can i might have thought your post the american.
question. would you have for breakfast yesterday why would you put those for the face. of. what your biggest fear is in the bin on the playwright was the last time that i'm bored you say if you ever met him suppose what about. this point the topic doesn't belong in the. now i didn't do due to a question. legendary investor bill miller put one percent of his net worth in decrypter currency in two thousand and fourteen recording has turned into quite a success for him in two thousand and fourteen traded between one hundred eighty three dollars and nine hundred fourteen dollars currently it's trading above twenty
six hundred it's a twelve hundred percent jump now according to miller bitcoin ranks as one of his top holdings miller's fund l.m.n. had two billion dollars in assets as of february he says the risk of a complete loss the big one was outweighed by potential gates miller is famous for beating the s. and p. five hundred for fifteen years straight between one thousand nine hundred one and two thousand and five. actually survives a potential split this summer the digital currency will likely gain more traction among financial professionals. i guess says we're heading into a period of economic slowdown when indication he points to his federal reserve chair janet yellen and wall street together pouring cold water on president donald trump's growth plans i caught up with christopher chief investment officer at the medical research. well a couple things one when you say where are we heading into it we're already into it lindsey you know if we trace back the g.d.p. figures that we've been looking at remember the first quarter was weaker than
expected second quarter you know lana fed. had the atlanta fed their g.d.p. now case started off at four point three percent and it's to indulge all the way down to two point four percent the new york fed is hanging around one point nine percent so we have slowed down marketability and what's happened while the bloom is off the rose and what we say is the trumpet bump that was fueling all sorts of expectations coming out of the election has now turned over and we're starting to see not only a push out in trump's policies again you know there the g.o.p. continues trying to figure out something with the health care act tax reform has now been pushed back some time or october no word on the infrastructure rebuilding so everything is getting pushed out and people trying to temper expectations for that at the same time all the economic data we've been getting whether it's the p.m.i. data industrial production i say manufacturing it's all been rolling over even retail sales as well and we've had no signs of inflation in fact we're seeing. so
we put all that together you know we continue to see a softer spot happening in the second part of your question should we be worried well. we're still growing that's that's the good part but a lot slower than we previously thought the issue is going to be those two factors the trump factor and the digestion of the real speed of the economy we're going into second quarter earnings we just we just a couple days ago and we're already starting to see some kind of sketchy things happen where earnings beats are not being received as well as people would thought some stocks are trading off we've been saying it's a matter that we need to see the expectations for the second half of the year come back in there kind of stretched a little bit calling for eleven percent growth second half first the first half five point six percent is the average over the last several years so you take the slowing economy the push out with the trial and all of a sudden eleven percent how do we get there lindsey it's got to be dialed back so for the market i would be surprised over the next three weeks as earnings really
heats up and people digest all these numbers that we do see a reset of overall expectations and i could see the market trading off not a ten percent correction but probably somewhere three to six percent ok so you said that this economic slowdown is not reflected in the current forecast no and so does that mean we're automatically going to see fiscal retrenchment this year when you say fiscal retrenchment are you talking companies are you talking the government government government well i don't know because we haven't got any policies out there yet right so you know we need to understand a how is going to rejigger their policies to get them moving one of the things that i notice a lot of people say you know as you have you bad as you have mentioned throwing cold water on trump's plans but can't that also be sort of referred to as a congressional crash just today earlier he was he was talking about donald trump is talking about he said this in a number of cases about getting these bills passed before the recess and health
care passed you know passing no recess this is the market reacting fact that congress isn't isn't. also passing things or is it more just the president you know is there i think the market candidly is paying some attention to it but the mainstream press has done such a good job of reporting on every little suppose it scandal that i think there's some fatigue that's going on as far as getting things done before the break hey that would be great you know if we were able to get some things done you know people can start to assess well what's next when are we going to see infrastructure water when we start to wrap our hands around certain things so then the market which like certainty might be able to get a little more comfortable now to be clear i'm not throwing cold water on trump or what the what he's trying to do i think you know repairing you know the d. plus american infrastructure would be fantastic create a lot of jobs if we were to overhaul tax repeal of the taxes great reduce the tax rate make it things a little more free flowing for people that businesses invest more the issue is when
he came in it's as if you know people expected all sorts of things to happen immediately like magic and the reality is even back to reagan it takes time so we're starting to see that people come around to realizing that that's the key here right ok but you say the current data points to a bunch longer wait until we see the fed hike and you know when yellen testified people were watching that very closely became very apparent right away you could see it unwinding. the balance possibly coming in september do you agree with that so far it looks like yes we will see the balance sheet start on one in september but here's the thing though at the same time you know even in her testimony before congress you know the the language of this she's using because we parse that quite a bit mater it was kind of a key word indicating a slowdown even she said that you know we are seeing signs of falling short of the fed's inflation target so you start to roll that together now the expectation is the fed probably won't do anything till late fourth quarter early first quarter but
remember the fed has never had its balance sheet the way it is and on winding it is something very. new so it's kind of an unknown so it's can be very interesting to listen to the fed later that later this month that there is a lie meeting and then for those september meeting to see what they say you know parsing the language and the actual plan assuming there is one for the morning that and of course the earnings as you mentioned will earnings without a doubt the next three weeks are going to be the primary driver of the market no doubt about what about the congressional budget office coming out with its numbers janet yellen definitely sort of pouring cold water on. percent economic growth isn't she kind of afraid for her job well i don't know yeah. it depends you know i think at one point during the campaign he said you know twenty five percent growth you can never be too sure it was about three percent of various points that's documented this kind of
a situation where they're saying look three percent is not going to happen is the kind of situation where it's better to sort of wait and see before trying to sort of set a number analyze the past look at where we are before start of projecting into the future it seems just automatically disappointing well you manage in the trump is trying to set a. rational target that he thinks he can hit a target that's going to say that if it doesn't come from the exit exactly right so you know from my perspective when you look at the age of the population you look at the lack of productivity gains i've had three percent might be a little tough if i was to advise i would have said look mr trump let's come in let's under promise and outperform you have nothing to gain that i missed that he was in part and that's what i don't get do you get it does anyone out there get it to project i don't i and i don't get it but you know it to me again saying that you're going to repeal the affordable care act day one which is a splintering issue in hindsight it would've been much better if you came in if he led with the infrastructure bill who wouldn't who wouldn't be for that. jobs your promise that's well it's the jobs putting people back to work with good paying jobs
right helping the infrastructure yes and that would be one i want. sure far away but a much easier way to get people to reach across the aisle to build credibility to build goodwill and then tackle the hard stuff but i think the reaction is to trump coming out heading harder than he has on passing this health care bill now because obviously we're seeing incredibly tight deadline for the august recess oh you know we just can't agree on it and then donald trump is coming out and saying if you don't support this you are not my friend all of these all of these things where everyone's feeling like they're being tied into a knot and then threatening i don't think you should take a recess is a stacking attack against that and do you think that the market is going to look at this and say this is just one state well you know i think you got to be careful because remember too that over the summer we also have this little thing known as the debt ceiling but they have to do it so we are going that are just under seven i'm just i'm just saying so you know in some respects i can understand what we're trying to trying to do right or something gets to get something you know get
a wind if you were on the other hand there's a lot of push and pull that with other issues that have to be thought about particularly the debt ceiling so i would prefer them to come out with a good plan that people can get behind actually support rather than twisting arms to pass something isn't that how we got the affordable care act in the first place actually yes that is absolutely right interesting to see as these earnings reports come out too and all of us and the july july meeting from the allen because people are watching so closely and of course it's them deliberately obtuse answers wouldn't you say as far as the first day she said some stuff out of the market reacted to a then let's go to the second day and she tried to moderate you me let me break out my yellen decoder ring but the fed has always done that and to be fair to them they can have a tough job because at the one on the one hand they have to affect the communicate what's going on but they also need to remain cheerleaders because as we often say you know so it's
a matter what happens if the fed actually comes out and said yeah things are not looking good all of a sudden becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and we i mean nobody wants a cooling fire in a theater. so maybe not a serious is that we're talking life and death but if they come out and say something like that it's nothing but negative yes then all i mean if it turns negative then that ripples through right through you know other economists big business leaders c.e.o.'s oh the fed says things are slowing down maybe we should retrench or spending maybe we should be hiring and like that you start to see things slow down all right thank you so much for coming in and talking these numbers for us it may not be all you know peaches and cream peaches and cream flowers and roses as they say but it's honest and we do it very well you know i don't build myself is just wrong to relist i like that very much thank you so much chris for such a huge investment officer right now they can restart sure thing. we're all familiar with the phrase our home away from home president trump is no exception you have
two additional residences outside the white house the one we all know mar-a lago in florida and the other at the famous trump tower new york city however the military is now spending a pretty penny at trump towers as well so far the white house military office has had to spend more than one hundred thirty thousand dollars per month for an apartment the president hasn't used even once and the government even signed a lease for the unit at more than two point three nine million dollars the washington post reports that the security team is had to request more than eighty million dollars more for trump's protection through two thousand and eighteen. that's all for now check out the show on the us have you to back com slash r t. thanks for watching see you next time.
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question. going up on our team eric overnight more violence struck the city of chicago we continue our special coverage of the violence plaguing the city. and the president from ns the cia's covert program to arm and train syrian rebel. and civilian deaths in afghanistan spike even higher in the first half of two thousand and seventeen those stories and more coming up right now. it's thursday june twentieth five pm here in washington d.c. i'm ashley banks and you're watching r.t. america.