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tv   [untitled]    January 21, 2015 4:00am-4:31am PST

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pw and mta port and airport as well as the planning department and the capital department were on that committee and one of the initial tasks we did inform the miss guidance we look forward to other examples at the federal, state and local levels to see how they're looking accident sea level adaptation and we're looking at the support from a couple of the coastal support to develop a detailed document that is adapted and in the process of being implemented as a result if you're into this guidance is if so a reminded for all the capitalized departments for the capital plans
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so, now i'm going to hand this off to tanya and she's going to describe the details of how this document works. >> president fong and members of the commission i'm tanya with the planning department and the environmental planning dwooigs division overwhelming i'm going to go over the main components first i'll talk about the science of the guidelines. >> the guidance draws on the best funds this is the research titled sea level for the california and oregon that was released in 2012, the energy report provides this projection for the sea level as well as the ranges that is the high and low conditions extreme conditions so as you can see the most
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likely projects are 203011 inches asia thirty inches by 90s 20 - those are predicting those types of values far into the future so using this report we're being consistent with other agencies including the coastal and the ac d.c. and in other words this is a wieldly accepted value a lot of the factors including the models we're not climate scientists this is what we should be using we're we're talking about planning we're phone call focusing on the frontalss rather than the ranges so this slide illustrates some
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of the factors for sea level rise and the flooding which is one way or another what we're talking about the companies are a culmination of the tied levels and the storm search that leads to flooding and the sea level rise this will help to illustrate it its important to talk about the flooding it is temporary and infrequent but nevertheless has the importantly to cause serious damage i would like to point out this guidance focuses on the hazards and how sea level rise contributed to the flooding so the first recommend step in the guidance to select the most appropriate sea level rise scenario some factors are the project anticipated lifespan and whether or not it is located in
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a future flood zone the agency will use late map had he how much that assets will be the most current maps were prepared in december of last year kroiflt civil will show you that later bans the first step then move on the vulnerable and asks the first step of the process is the exposure here the agency determines whether or not the location is in the flood zone and proposed to temporary or permanent flooding it is the sensitivity analysis that studies the degree of the sea level rides sometimes they're more sensitive than others to
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flooding the most important t the parks that is the fire station is a sensitive project so based on on the omnioutcome the agency will assess the adoptive capacity of whether or not it just have to sea level rise in the future for example a ground level residential use in a flood zone there's not much you can do to respond to future flooding whoa whereas a high-level rise is a barrier is needed in the future based on the observing outcome of the vulnerability saechld it
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compares the possibility of the consequences since the probability o probability is difficult to have an impact is hard to calculate it is on calculating the consequence that considers the magnitude of a scenario some questions that could be useful what is the level of damage to the assets can it it be repair or have to be replaced would there be a disruption in the service and lead to public safety and safety concerns who would be the cost to repair the costs and to the economy for example a temporary comploesh of embarcadero stations would be a high subsequence u consequence because people rely on it another example of a roadway
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would be different based on previous steps in the process the agency will go on to will adapt the adaptation strategies for the process and prioritize these projects with the idea of resiliency some of the items the sea level rise be considered and it be relied over time and the triggers for implementation sea level rides is a fairly slow motorcycling problem we have time and we don't know everything about the scientists but hope to learn more the city will continue toy fine plans for the sea level i'd say rise and implementing this approach guidance includes a check list
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it will assist the departments in implementing this approach currently each department will fill out a accomplice for projects over $5 million identified for funding and in the area defined as a the vulnerability zone this is combapgd in 21 hundred by possible high-end sea level rise plus one hundred year flood as mapped by the committee so those collect listed are due to committee i'm going to turn it over to chris to go over some of the flood maps. >> okay. so i want to review a few of the sea level rise scenarios and flood maps wear working with those maps were prepared by the sfpuc in two
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studies the shoreline east side and west side the whole square feet of scenarios so i'm going to focus on a few not click through them the studies are available this first one i'll talk about be a little bit longer than than the rest is depicting the mean high water plus 12 inches that transmits to the daily high tide to the 2012 research council report and the green areas you see there are denoted as dissected areas those are areas that the grade will be below this predicted high-level
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they're not connected to the bay lower than the sea level but flooded this map and at maps i'm going to show you are bans 2010 topographic it was high so it is useful for this purpose but doesn't account for changes in topographic on the shoreline including those approved by the plans so for example those maps will be more transparent and more severe insures don't show the measures that are proved and implemented for the mission bay or the treasure island that incorporated the adaptation as part of their processes so those
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maps in other words you represent a naivete baseline with a do nothing assumption pr so this map represents the expected 2050 condition during a coastal storm sunday morning that transcriptionists to the storm surge is coastal flooding that's been modeled and 3re7kd to occur you know on average once every one hundred years or so ooifl this is a one percent chance in my given year that condition can be experienced the last flood in san francisco give you prospective wasn't was in 19983 they occur from a few hours to days it should be
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understood it is an infrequent and prefixing condition but the one hundred year flood is the zone we use 90 in mr. larkin this is our future flood zone so this map is representing 36 inches of sea level rise it's a daily tied and 311 is what they project for 26 one hundred again under the no do nothing this is the ear that is inundated on a daily more or less daily basis during high tide now this map is that same period 21 hundred plus the stormed sunday morning and do nothing hopefully, we'll do something i
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hope this map illustrates the com pell reason the city has adapted this doing nothing is not acceptable but this map is useful for the adaptation process to put those maps in a little bit of boarder prospective i wanted to end with the citywide viewing and this is ant of apples and oranges comparison this is our existing flood plan map prepared in 2008 this is our one hundred year coastal scenario and our one hundred year flood plan it was prepared with a different to that graveng map so their models will not coordinated but it give us a picture of what we're looking at in the future is increased flooding a larger flood zone that will flood the
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areas that are currently flooded and coastal is a lot more so here's the whole looting lot more this is is harder to see i can flip back and forth this is again, the 21 hundred flood zone go back whoops and with that i'd like to conclude it is available on the website we have a few extra copies and we're ready to answer any questions you have. >> opening it up for public comment and i'm sure there's questions any public comment?
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okay >> sue hester i didn't bring the maps about this sea level rise and based on on state and federal i've given them out it's important to look at it this map this map shows it's on page 8 at the bottom the big area south of market which is central selma is the marshy area you needed to look at the mashes the map you've seen is the three includes a lot of file downtown it ends just north of the bay bridge so i can because i've
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been digging into this is virtually the entire area east of 86 montgomery street down to market street is you'll file it's all file and you need to pay attention it's downtown area of the mashes includes the vast easier south of market and when you have an earthquake you see where the areas are mashes are no one was on the planning commission at the time of the one i don't know of anyone at the planning staff vast areas south of market had flooding filed with destruction and people died people died there as well as in the ronald reagan it
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got the news because if of the upper class people people that were homeless lost their lives i know there were there were flood complications when you have an earthquake we're going to have another earthquake we'll have another earthquake guaranteed i happen to live near a mash where one 80 and 280 come in it's a march i didn't live here then we have to paid attention to marshes and creeks part of it goes into the mission it was collin chosen because of the bay
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mission delores so mission south of market some weird places that used to be river front property are really inhimself we need to pay attention one of those days we'll allow people to get involved in speaking and is there any additional public comment no. >> okay public comment is closed. commissioner antonini. >> yes. sue hester makes a good point there have a lot of places coming from la golden gone down into 7th avenue there was a couple of buildings that clarpdz because they were you know built on file and didn't have constructive tree
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foundations so that's not a sea level rise issue per say but those areas exist been the alameda boulevard i know every time there's an article it talks about the flooding in basements aside i have a question the first have we be able to measure the self rise for example, in the last 5 years i mean they're anticipating does anyone have information as to what is 3rekd or not. >> yeah. there's quite a bit information on sea level rise we have the oldest measure gage in san francisco so we have excellent data for the conditions theirs 8 inches of sea level rise measured. >> will 82 for the last one
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hundred years. >> it's obsoleting and expected to accelerate this is based on levels and the planning department i didn't preventive to be climate scientists but our committee look at the scientists with experts throughout the coastal zone and the state and federal and we're sure it natural council report is the best and . >> and then it appears in your maps even without the measures that are being put into place the map for 21 hundred at high tide doesn't show high water penetrating but it shows extensive amounts most is a
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depth of 4. >> that's steep inches. >> oh that's more i was going to say 2 inches. >> if we were only that luke. >> one would assume if you you build a sea level some of it could percolate up underneath. >> again, the guidance document is not recommending specific adaptation strategies that's a framework on how the capital departments and city should engage in the process that's a progress of evaluating the availability and prioritizing areas and dpw appropriate strategies and stlz there are many to choose under some are appropriate what is protecting
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and others so varying from seawalls to the elevation and the philosopher allowing flooding to occur in easier to redirect flood flees that are not harmful to parks and roadways and other strategies that can be considered. >> it's a sensitive building you've encourage them to rise the - >> the analogy or the extreme that example that are commonly discussed in those controllers if you're planning on building a nuclear plant you should design it and build it is well protected if you're building a park would you might do is use salt tolerant landscaping so it
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really depends on on what you're doing. >> thank you. >> commissioner johnson. >> thanks real quick appreciate the presentation glad we're doing something we're talking about the sea level rise not an earthquake want to make that distinction and the second thing on the slide you talk about the different agencies and department that are collaborating on what to do about incorporating the science and the guidance into the capital process i understand we have a list of our capital agencies and ocii has kind of overseen the demonstrated in hunters point on treasure island where they've actually got the most active working to counter act the sea level rise which is a separate thing so i know i would love to see that included
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in the discussions i know they have the background they're going the actual constricts in incorporating the design would like to see that and glad to see we're actually making presentations and not just waving our hands into the decision marking but incorporating the decision making i would on treasure island and our plan was to have a raft in our house (laughter). >> i'm glad we're moving beyond that. >> commissioner moore. >> i'm proud the city is stepping is to the line as early as 2001 when i started to be on the first cap of treasure island there were no sea level rise we had a lawyer that was dealing with sea law and grudgingly the
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engineers finally came around and predicted sea level rise would not come around the rest of the world picked up on the discussion i want to ask you i wonder if you're all aware of the phenomenal work done by bcdc taylor's there's a document called sea level rise no san francisco bay area that details with the collective aspect the assets do end at the line in the sand which is the limit of the city and county of san francisco but there's a lot of discussion i'm concerned about the vulnerability and the seat go viability looks at both private and public rodent there are forward-looking approaches
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particle the a i a has been actually to start leading particle the residential design no sea level rise and tsunami effected areas to look at the housing looking at the ground floor there's an example and it will be interesting as we're looking asset protection to look at those models as well bcdc has has spoken about the high-level rise in the document that's probably not available if you have someone speak shares with you and classifying 4 types of development they're talking about the title denying development and the economy driven development and the tiled
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tiled and economic development i want that type of discussion when our looking at did private robot of sea level rides in treasure island some of that is being picked up by la interior as moving into the future title experiencing means sea level embracing all sea level rise experiencing i hope you can find the document and looked at it it from bcdc it's an informative document. >> just to respond we've coordinated with about b.c. dshg and the protection council and the atmospheric administration a whole slur of management and sea level adaptation planning. >> if in commission can get a hand on 80 this document it's a
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wonderful read. >> thanks for sharing that i know you have great interest in the bay a couple of quick comments this is a storm surge when people read about sea level rise it's a temporary surge a couple of questions it's kind of a dumb question i've been curious on the ocean side during a 5 day incident if you're standing at the ferry building will we have no more impact inside the bay than outside the bay. >> it's not a doumg question it's a complicated system and what happens inside the bay and the outer coast is indemnify
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that's what the puc did separate studies the storm wave conditions we captioners at ocean beach are more severe than inside san francisco bay area and we're doling e dealing with extreme storm conditions swells up to thirty feet that produce large waves on the shoreline, however that being said with the top graphic with the high bluff and the development is a set back if you look at the most extreme works is in the studies we have much less of a worse case scenario scenario we have wave splash and run off effecting the great highway our biggest problem is the coastal erosion that's definitely an issue with
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the sfpuc and something the puc is taking the lead on but the planning department is definitely involved in a large way for solutions oh, my gosh on the bay side we don't experience the storm waves and run off conditions in fact our significant one hundred year storm surge condition is one hundred feet on each side, however, we have low lying areas next to the shoreline in terms of the flood impacts that we need to respond to we have much more serious situation and . >> so more erosion control on the coastal side. >> it's a combination of the steep topographic and the high bluffs the


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