give up on me, baby ♪ ♪ oh i'm jim cramer, and welcome to my world. you need to get in the game. firms are going to go out of business, and he is nuts! they're nuts! they know nothing. i always like to say there is a bull market somewhere. "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome totorararica. her people want t m me e friends. i'm m ststrying to stoavavyoyoa littleleonon.. j j i inonojust to enteain you, but to teach you and educate you on days like today to figure out what it means. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. every day during earnings season, we take the measure of the market and we make a judgment, a judgment on the future. today with the dow plummeting 129 points, s&p sinking 0.62%, and the nasdaq giving up 0.43%,
we judge the future negatively. but how did we reach that judgment? how did we reach that point total? it's almost like a sports match expressed mathematically. don't roll your eyes, i'll make it easy. each day starts at zero, meaning the averages would be flat if nothing happens with individual companies or with governments and central banks. that's the so-called micro, the companies, and the macro, which are the governments. so we've got a flat line here, okay? that's how every day starts. of course, something does happen every day, which is why we are almost never flat, typically on days where central government or banks squawk some sort of data. so let's just presume we're never going to be in zero. then we get to earnings season and the equation changes dramatically. we get really granular. we extrapolate the heck out of each and every earnings report to see where the averages are headed. so consider the box score from one 24-hour sports cycle, using
the parlance of football. why not? it's football season. it will be easy for everybody. here is the playoff play. first we get earnings last night from yum! brands, parents of taco bell and pizza hut, and it is dynamite. yum is putting up restaurants all around the world. and why not, they have two million restaurants per million in the merging versus 58 per million here in america. china didn't slow as much as we thought. and taco bell tacked up 7%. same store sales growth. no wonder short sellers think taco bell could be taking a share from chipotle. the stock jumped high single digits. right through the 70. so you know what? let's spot the bulls on the strength, on the strength of yum. two touchdowns, okay? 14 points. 6, an extra point. that's one touchdown for the surprise that china wasn't awful, and a second td for an improving u.s. and great growth prospects away from china. 14-0 is the score after yum. but it wasn't all rosy last
night. that's because cummins, the best enginemaker on earth, preannounced a hideous quarter. decided weakness in china and the u.s., given that cummins had said negative things over the summer, this really hurt. it meant the decline is cascading, it's accelerating. that's enough to cost the bulls the two touchdowns. take away 14 points for bulls. and yes, everything is going to be take away or add points. because remember, the baseline is zero, which is where we were after the yum/cummins shoot-out. right back to zero. at the same time we heard from alcoa. while the company delivered on the actual earnings note, the top of the number you read, it also took the growth rate down. i didn't see the negatives that others did here because aerospace and others were good while construction was bad. nothing really new. and while china was indeed weaker, oil alcoa's ceo is talking about a very strong rebound in china for 2013. no matter what i think, though, people chose not to hear the point of views and alcoa kicked
a field goal for the bears. so now we have the new score. it's bears 3, bulls 0. or minus 3 for purposes of the tote board. the news kept coming last night as we heard from chevron in the mid quarter update. the giant oil company totally imploded on the headline basis with a real one of those substantially worse than expected screamer. even as i thought that the story is pretty much expected by those who actually follow the company closely, as i do, having just been selling some chevron for action alerts.com, my charitable trust. somehow the old facts, a hurricane and refinery in california hurt the quarter were regarded as new news, and chevron scored another touchdown for the bears. all right. now the score is minus 10. again, parlance of football, as well as what we look at as the averages. europe proved to be a nonevent. so we came into this morning session in the red. down by 10. come on, nothing devastating. the score stays at minus 10
after we look at europe. i thought for a moment that we were going to have maybe a real good day because very early i saw costco report robust numbers. looks like consumers still very much want a bargain. costco is giving you one. no wonder so few members are balking at the increase in membership dues. i've been a costco shopper of late. last weekend i jammed the aisles with not one, but two shopping carts. i used one of the big orange ones. it was so bad that i had to let the guy behind me go ahead of me because he only had a handful of items in his cart. i was glad i did. because by the time i got home, i saw @jimcramer on twitter. my line compatriot tweeted, i'm calling costco a field goal for the bulls, and that's putting the score at minus 7. bears advantage. but then something happened that knocked the bulls' socks off. something so devastating, i had to interrupt "squawk on the street" when i saw it. cataclysmically awful by avnet. business is so broad and so
global that you knew the day was going to be ceded to the bears. it was a question of how big a margin. give the bears 14 points on avnet. it was that devastating. 14 points. that's two touchdowns, right? that's being charitable. this is about as unexpected from a well run company as you can get, as i'll explain later in the show. uh-oh. suddenly it's 21-0. and the game hasn't even started yet. it's so bad i'm thinking this is going to be a game like last sunday's when the actual chicago bears kept scoring touchdowns with the defense. i tell myself it's early, that there will be more countervailing news. sure enough, there is. walmart is holding a big rah-rah meeting in bentonville, arkansas, and their reports are outstanding. the stock climbs and climbs. considering this is the world's largest retailer, i'm awarding the bears 7. there is hope!
plus apple, which has been an anvil around the neck of the bulls. suddenly has pep in its step. it doesn't open down. it doesn't stay down. given apple has been such a drag on the market, you got to give the bulls, let's give them a field goal, one of the david akers 62 jobs. and now it's an 11-point game. admittedly negative 11, but not the end of the world. there is only one problem with this analysis. for the purposes of explanation, i'm going to shift sports entirely, just for a nanosecond, and talk about, you bet, bowling. hey, dialing for dollars. come on, i'm trying to get you involved. you see the great numbers from costco and yum and walmart. they were all in the retail sector, every one of them. all that did is to serve something we already knew, that the consumer is still spending courtesy of the wealth effect of a stronger stock portfolio and house value. that news comes because fed cheryl ben bernanke is keeping rates super low since he knows from the boss, no doubt from that wednesday night concert that everybody was at except for me that you can't start a fire
without a spark. but cummins, alcoa, avnet, chevron, the bull has knocked over three pins, the bears bowled a strike, taking down industrials, construction, technology, the oils. holy cow, pins are flying everywhere! next thing you know, to heavily mix sports metaphors, the bears are adding two touchdowns. to their minus 11 advantage on this pin action. we got a 25-point differential going into the -- going into the second half here. 25. wow. that's going to be tough. oh, get this. it gets worse. this was an amazing one. remember when the market was under the impression it was good news if romney takes the white house? be careful what you wish for, partner. today's macro conclusion from the recent romney surge was truly a low blow. it started to dawn on people that the first thing romney would do is fire bernanke. and there goes qe3 with all the gasoline that pours on the retail fire. give the bears another couple of touchdowns. you know what? let's make this one a truly ugly one, except for the people who took the under.
let's make it 39-0 for the bears. bottom line, we got a lopsided bear victory today, one that requires me to take license to come up with 129-point decline. it was an ugly beatdown in the frozen tender, but here is the great thing about this game. on any given weekday, the score can change dramatically. and the same bear squad that took it to the bulls could get its face ripped off tomorrow. alas, that's 24 hours and a ton of pain -- >> the house of pain! >> -- away from now. robert in arizona. robert? >> caller: boo-yah, jim. enjoy the show. >> thank you. >> caller: a quick question on boeing. what do you think? buy, or sell or hold? >> not even an issue. we're not playing buy, sell or hold. invest. it's one of the greatest manufacturers in the world. we saw the big european merger that was supposed to hurt them so badly is not going to happen. i got to tell you something, this stock is the cheapest stock in the dow.
carlin in arizona, carlin? >> caller: hey, jim, boo-yah from old towne scottsdale in arizona. >> i've been there. i tried to play golf. i wrecked the course. they wouldn't let me play anymore. that's okay. what's up? >> caller: you can come and visit. you're my most valuable asset, just like your recording says. the reason i'm calling is the fedex. reconstruction, if that's a good investment or buy or wait? >> i was thrilled when stephanie link came to me the other day. fedex, it is way too low. i said yeah, let's get some for the charitable trust. we pulled the trigger, got the stock. it ain't done. fedex is going higher. they're taking the costs out. the bear case is over. it probably drops a couple of points tomorrow and maybe you picked some up too. it turned out to be a lopsided victory for the bears. it was brutal. gee, my fantasy team got shut out too. look, on any given sunday, meaning on any given weekday, meaning on by any given tuesday and wednesday, the game fluctuates. you know what?
tomorrow is any given thursday. who knows. maybe it will go back to even. "mad money" will be back right after the break. coming up, the anointed ones. google, amazon, visa and mastercard. cramer has already named these four stocks he believes are blessed by growth-obsessed money managers and should continue their ascent until year end. don't move. jim's 4q hot list gets two more sizzling plays next. and later, making dough? health conscious consumers have made panera a win, rising to 50% new all time highs in the past year. but is it finally leveling out? nbc universal's healthy week continues when cramer talks with its founder, just ahead. all coming up on "mad money." >> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question, tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to
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where the market just got totally smacked around, let me remind you that sell-offs, even heavy back-to-back sell-offs like the yesterdays and todays are not necessarily a reason to panic. just like i told you yesterday, stocks are just like any other piece of merchandise. when they come down in price, they get cheaper. as long as the business is still good. and that means you need to view this pullback as an opportunity to buy, or a sale at the mall. listen to me. if saks cut prices like this, you wouldn't run screaming out of the store, you would take an opportunity to buy some nice stuff at a discount. like i did. i got this nice shirt a couple of weeks ago. i got two of these for about 95 bucks. a little baggy, maybe? i'll work on that later. what kind of merchandise should we be looking to buy in the weakness? all week i've been talking about the momentum trade, the mo trade. it's our hot list where growth oriented money managers take a look at the stocks in their portfolio and buy them aggressively until the end of
the year. look, i know it doesn't seem like it on a day like today, but that trade is still on. i'm seeing it. i'm seeing it. right now you've got a terrific chance to buy what i call these anointed stocks on the cheap before these money managers spend the rest of the year taking them right up, walking them right up. it may seem strange that i'm telling you to focus on some of the hottest stocks out there when i tend not to like expensive stocks during the rest of the year. but historically this kind of seasonal trade has worked out. hedge funds and mutual funds are going to buy these stocks hand over fist right into this profound weakness. and whether you agree with them or not, whether you like it or not, the truth you can't beat them. which is why i'm advising you to pick one or two of these and join them. certainly ahead of the schedule, so you can try to profit from their buying. we've already had two smokin' internet stocks to our fourth quarter hot list, amazon and google. then yesterday we highlighted the roaring credit card stocks, visa and mastercard. these are momentum stocks delight. and tonight two red hot retailers that will be fourth quarter winners.
you may never have heard of them, but be ready. these are in vogue. i'm talking about ulta salon, the beauty retailer that is rallying 48.9% since the beginning of the year, and tractor supply, the number one operator of farm and ranch stores in america. sort of like the rural home depot. it's a stock that is up more than 40% year to date. can you imagine these two? these are the hot list. what on earth does a beauty retailer have to do with a tractor supply store? other than being places i like to shop, because i like to shop everywhere, simple. they're both regional, national growth stories. when you have a retailer that is expanding from being a regional player to a national one, just like when we had conagra last night, you got a stock that can generate tremendous multi-year gains. right now we're in an environment where there aren't a lot of companies with genuine rapid growth. but ulta salon and tractor supply, they have it in spades. they have the long-term secular growth that makes money managers salivate. they're like dogs at the dog tracks before they get the mechanical rabbit.
anyway. let's start with ulta. here is a company that has 489 stores in 45 states. and we know these stores are doing very well, or at least in the united states. how do we know this? in the latest quarter ulta posted a 9.3% increase in same store sales. ulta plans to open 100 new stores this year, increasing told footage by 22%. that's what these managers are looking for. you might think that kind of expansion can't be sustained for very long. you'd be wrong. ulta believes they can have a 1,200 locations in the united states, that's a 45% increase in the current store cap. that's what these managers like. that means the company still has a very long runway for growth and it's why investors have been lapping up the stock all year. until it gets near that target of stores, i think the stock can climb higher, though this is an icarus situation with the sun being saturation. as short sellers think the good news can't last, but that's even more grist for the mill of many momentum funds. oh, wow, a big short position.
let's go down there and give them the business. how about tractor supply? right now they have 1,135 stores in 45 states. the company is on target to open 90 to 95 more this year. the expansion isn't nearly as fast as ulta's, but still they have plenty of room to grow. the company believes they can 2,100 stores in the u.s. before they saturate the market, 85% increase, give the guys what they want. up 3.2%. decent. but again, not spectacular like ulta. but where tractor supply comes out ahead, though, the fact that they don't really face much in the way of competition. because of where tractor stores are located geographically, largely in rural areas like mine on route 202 in new jersey, the company's only real competitors are local, usually small mom and pop feed grain places like the one my family uses that i fear actually might falter simply because it's within tractor supply's 20-minute radius. there is very little overlap with lowe's or home depot here, and that's allowing them to take market share. plus it is a rebound on the
housing market. ulta is also taking share in the beauty business. the company is already the leading specialty retailer of cosmetics in america, out of nowhere. but even as the leader, ulta only controls about 2.8% of the beauty products market. and that's .2% of the salon services market. a ton of room for them to keep taking market share. both companies have healthy inventory levels. ulta increased by 3.9% on same store sales basis. but wait a second. but it's growing at 9.3%. that's good. tractor stores declined on a 3.9% basis. excess inventory is the bane of every business. it means you have to discount to move product, which kills the profit margins. your balance sheets are spotless. ulta has no debt. tractor supply has barely any debt. $179 million in cash. the growth guys hate debt. what about management? ulta's ceo chuck rubin has proven himself since he took over in september of 2010. before that he ran office depot. i mean the guy is from the retail business, although odp has not been any kind of
standout performer, to say the least. maybe more important, though, this man knows how to be a manager. as he originally comes from a big consulting company. at tractor supply, the current ceo is step do you think in january, although he is going to stay on as executive chairman. the incoming ceo gregory sanford extremely familiar as he has been tractor supply's chief merchandising officer since 2009. i don't know where he gets his stuff, but he is very good. he was promoted to president and chief operating officer in february. so he has been groomed -- he has been groomed for the succession. and i don't think we have anything to worry about. okay. we got two well-run fast-growing companies. but what about their stocks? both ulta and tractor supply have run a lot. neither one pays a substantial dividend, although ulta did pay a dollar special dividend in march, and tractor supply raised its teeny tiny dividend in may. these are not the safest stocks out there.
people, understand that they're not safe. this is a trade. they are 100% capital appreciation and zero capital preservation vehicles. again, that's one of the things that the growth mutual funds find so charming about them. on the other hand, they're all domestic, which means you don't have to worry about what bad news out of china or europe might do to the share price. you wake up in the morning after europe is down 2%, these stocks tend to open down and they rally the rest of the day. people are hey wait a second, they don't got no tractor supply in beijing. they probably say it like that too. ulta sells for 29 times next year's earning estimates. the average stock in this market sells for about 14 times earnings. oh, but ulta is far from the average stock. terrific 25% long-term growth rate. remember, though, money managers who will buy these stocks are valuing them based on what is known as the earnings in the outyears, o-u-t-y-e-a-r-s. look at the estimate for 2015. ulta is only trading at 18 times those numbers, and that's
actually cheap. tractor supply, a healthy 18% long-term growth rate. in short, for these managers, ulta and tractor supply may have rallied hard this year. but based on the way these guys trade and invest, because they pride themselves on a longer term time frame, believe it or not, to them these stocks have plenty of room to run. let me give you the bottom line, okay? you need to take advantage of the sell-off to buy what are going to be red hot momentum stocks as the rest of the year unfolds. they're being temporarily marked down before they become anointed by momentum-chasing hedge funds as we go into the home stretch. look at what happened to ulta and tractor supply today. they did really well, even as the rest of the market went down and stayed down. that's the pattern i'm looking for here. that's power of a growth stock that has been anointed in the fourth quarter, even as stocks suffer their worst two-day slide since the end of july. that's the power you want to be on the right side of as we slide
into the new year. i want to take some phone calls, please. i want to talk to jeanie in new jersey. jeanie? >> caller: hey, jim, it's jeanie. i just moved to florida from new jersey, but i wanted to ask you about lowe's. i bought lowe's back in may, april-may at 32. and it had gone down ever since. in august it hit a low. now it's going back up. so what should i do? should i hold it? >> well, look, lowe's is an inexpensive stock. we at actionalertsplus.com, our charitable trust would rather own best of breed, which is home depot. but sometimes owning the second best of breed in the turnaround is fine too. i'm going to bless your lowe's. i think 28 downside. 34 upside. mike in delaware. >> caller: ba-ba-ba-boo-yah. >> i'm liking that. what is going on? >> caller: cabela's, man. got it earlier in the year. it's going like gang busters? do you think they might do a dividend in the future? >> cabela's is on fire.
a friend of mine went to cabela's the other day and said they are actually out, i kid you not, of bow and arrows. bows and arrows. people love to shoot things. hey, you know what? i can get into that. but i got to tell you something. cabela's is going higher, particularly during an election year. believe it or not, again, this stock is a horse. i want to go to victor in washington, please. victor? >> caller: hey, jim. how are you doing? >> pretty good. how about you? >> caller: good. thanks for taking my call. >> my pleasure. >> caller: i got a quick question about coach. i have owned this stock for a while. and the stock has been hammered lately from the 70s to the 50s right now. i don't know if it's because of the slow chinese growth or their underlying reasons. but i want to know if it's a good time for me to get some more or sell? >> i'm worried about coach. i want to see how they execute this quarter. i owned it for my trust and decided it was a little too risky. i want to see if they figure out the discounting problem they have in america this year. china is a dice roll. nike bad, okay.
but wow, yum real good. so let's not get too aggressive, coach. under 50, boy, i would pull the trigger. amazon, google, visa, mastercard, and now tractor supply and ulta, okay? these are sexy kinds of stocks, high growth. if you can't beat them, join 'em. remember, not for the squeamish. after the break, i'll try to make you even more money. coming up, making dough? health-conscious consumers have made panera a win for investors, rising over 50% to new all-time highs in the past year. but is it finally leveling out? nbc universal's healthy week continues when cramer talks with its founder, just ahead. with arthritis pain. and two pills. afternoon's overhaul starts with more pain. more pills. triple checking hydraulics. the evening brings more pain.
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i've always been a big believer in the idea that you should never let little things like your values or morality get in the w of picking great stocks. this business about trying to make money, it's not about symbolism. even if you hate smoking, it shouldn't stop you from owning altria. the only difference is if you get to participate in the upside when the stock goes higher. if you're an environmentalist, no reason to avoid buying an oil stock. you can always donate some of your profits to the sierra club if you want to make a difference. i've been hammering this point home for years. it's very rare to find a company that makes lots of money by going out of its way to do great things for humanity.
not a criticism, just not what businesses are doing. however, lately we're witnessing a trend where certain companies are doing well by doing good. i want to talk about it here on healthy week here at nbc universal. because it is all about health. a handful of chains have figured out a substantial number of people really do care about their health and have had incredible success by making good tasting food or good organic products that are good for you. take panera bread, the quick serve chain that my daughter clued me in to many years ago because they make healthy salad. everyone on her field hockey team ate there, even though it was miles away from where they practiced. i started recommending panera in july of 2008. it was trading at 46. i've been a fan of the stock ever since. it's a 259% gain. thank you, summit field hockey. panera has been on a real roll, up 14% in the last three months. but stock has become more of a battleground as investors fret about how food costs could hurt the bottom line and they worry
about the valuation. since panera is trading 24% next year's earnings, but i don't think it is that expensive. the bulls see another leg of growth coming thanks to a bunch of new innovations to increase traffic to panera stores. the company is testing out new ordering kiosks as well as mobile ordering and pickup. this is to make stores more efficient can usually lead to a big boost in same-store sales which is how we measure companies in the restaurant business. the company reports on october 23rd. they're currently in the quiet period, meaning they can't talk about the quarter. but we can't have a healthy week without hearing from panera. that's why i'm thrilled to have ron shaich with us to talk about the company's long-term prospects and the business of healthy eating. mr. shaich, welcome back to "mad money." >> great to see you again. >> great to see you too. let's cut to the chase here. panera has healthier food than a lot of other chains. when you try to figure out what the secret is to panera's success, is that not the number one reason why you have broken
away from the pack? >> i actually think it's about the fact that people trust that when they come to panera, they can be in control of their lives, they can do what they want. so panera offers lots of options relative to health. if you are in a situation where you want to eat low calorie, you can get it at panera. if you want high protein, you can get it at panera. if you want to eat any number of ways, you can get it at panera. and there is a lot of transparency about what we're actually doing. so panera was the first chain i believe nationally to put up calorie information. that's about options, and that's about transparency. >> now demographically, there is a new generation coming. a lot of people feel the new generation isn't that wise. i think they google everything and they know everything. what is your demographic at panera bread? >> it's interesting. our average customer will run slightly older than what fast food typically does. it's more of a casual dining customer, somewhere between 25
and 50. they are folks that are willing to pay just a little bit more for something that has far greater quality. and, you know, when you think about the fact that our chicken is all antibiotic-free, all natural, when you think of the quality of the ingredients we're using, people get it. they respond to it. they vote with their wallets. >> ron, i got a panera near me in brooklyn. the place is packed. it's one of the places that has adopted this new technology. a lot of people, i've read research lately that have been a little tougher on it. bmo capital, downgrade. miller tabak, downgrade. i'm thinking if they're looking at the stores that i'm looking at, you can't get in them anymore because of the kiosks and this new mobile plan that you have. >> you know, jim, just more broadly, initiatives come and go. the reality is panera has delivered because there is a stew of factors impacting the guests. the reality is panera has been the best performing restaurant stock when measured over the last ten years, when measured
over the last five years, when measured over the last two years, and when measured year to date. so one never knows where the stock will be next week or next month. but i can tell your viewers, i can tell you we at panera are committed to staying in the lead and delivering for our investors. >> a lot of people are concerned, i know it's a quiet period, that when they look at the price of some of the stuff in the supermarket that has all gone up because of the drought, and they think panera has the same problem, they won't be able to pass on the price increases, they must be hurting. >> the reality is we're bought forward generally for six months to a year. so we have lots of room. what we care about is having visibility into the future so we can adjust prices. i think we see relatively modest inflation coming. and as we have in the past, i believe with our customer, those folks that really, frankly appreciate what we're doing for them, the quality of the ingredients, the quality of the food, the quality of the experience, we're able to pass on the very modest price increases that we need to take to maintain our margins or improve them. >> you know, ron, i talked to you many times on and off
camera. i have two vegetarian daughters who have helped me tremendously in trying to pick things. but i also discovered they not alone. you go to colleges, there is now a vegetarian dining hall there is almost always big, big offerings for a vegetarian. i'm hearing you're going to do pasta next year, which is the other great thing besides salad that the vegetarians love. is that that going to be rolled out or is that just a sample? >> you know, jim, we have a whole bunch of things in test. and we're very careful in commenting on anything that hasn't been formally announced for roll-out. but i think as you know, we've been testing some forms of pasta for several years. it wouldn't surprise me to see it next year. >> fair enough. customer loyalty program. if you have healthier food, it seems that you probably have a following that is more loyal than the other guys. how is that working? >> jim, we've got 12 million members of the my panera loyalty program. the reality is people love it. what it's about is giving people an opportunity to affiliate with panera, and then it's
essentially surprise and delight. so we find opportunities, we understand each of our customers individually because we can track the data. and we find opportunities to give them rewards that actually matter to them. it's been a wonderful, wonderful thing for panera. it's created additional loyalty. and as well, it gives us the ability to talk to people in the way that they want to be talked about. >> terrific, ron. i think that healthy week and you agree. it is transparency, and it's the right to choose the healthy way. >> yes. >> that's what people want. >> you know, jim, i think you're like me, right? i have vegetarian friends all over. you have your vegetarian daughters. there are days that i am very focused in being in control of my diet, how i eat. and i'll come into a panera where i eat almost every single day. i'll have a soup and a salad for lunch. the salad will be nutritionally -- the soup will be nutritionally dense. it will be a veblg vegetarian soup. and then i'll have a cobb salad. three or 400 calories.
i'll be eating high protein, low calorie, i'll be feeling great. there are other days i'll come into panera, it was just yesterday. i had just that lunch. i said you know what? i said to my assistant, have them throw in a blueberry muffin. i'm just in the mood for that. i think the reality is people are smart. our consumers are smart. they make choices. they make tradeoffs. when we treat them with respect, when we give them options, and then when we give them transparencies so they can make decisions, we're really serving them. that's what this is all about. >> a simple solution that works for america. thank you, ron shaich, panera chairman, founder and co-ceo. >> thanks, jim. profitable week. it's been that way for panera since we've been recommending it. guys, if the stock should come in, you know what i think, i think you should buy it. stay with panera. stay with jim cramer. coming up, the clock is ticking. call cramer at 1-800-743-cnbc to
it is time. it is time for the "lightning round." on cramer's you say the name -- >> buy, buy, buy! >> sell, sell, sell! >> when i play this sound -- [ buzzer ] >> -- and then the "lightning round" is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? let's start with dave in michigan. dave? >> caller: hey, jim, big detroit tiger boo-yah to you. >> nice. good luck. what is up? >> caller: hey, jim, agnc. i've got it in my retirement fund, and it's been dropping like a rock. and they're saying it's because of qe3. what do you think? >> look, there are issues involving the fact that these particular mortgage real estate investment trusts should not do as well in this particular environment. i think the yield, i think the dividend could go down a little, i don't know. to me, this one and annually, they have navigated almost every yield curve. i'm not going to back away from
them. maggie in connecticut? >> caller: yes, jim, it's maggie. >> caller: hi. >> caller: i want to ask you about alexion, alxn. >> this is a good one. now here is the problem. it's opinion a red hot stock. it's really speculative. it's up a huge amount. there is a correction going on. these stocks drop in a correction. i do not think that alexion should be sold, but it can come down in these corrections because a lot of people ring the register. kino in texas? >> caller: how you doing, cramer? >> real good. how about you? >> caller: all right. today, actually i want to talk about barclays. >> barclays, look, i got to recommend best of breed, and barclays is not best of breed. all i can tell you it's better than it used to be. i personally prefer to own domestic banks. i don't want as much exposure from europe as i do almost any major domestic bank. ralph in alaska, ralph? >> caller: yes, boo-yah, jim. >> boo-yah.
>> caller: thanks very much for the great show. >> thank you. >> caller: srpt? >> look, it's a highly speculative situation. the stock tripled the day they got the good news. it's been coming down ever since. you have to pick your spot where it's going to bottom. maybe it's in the hands of the technicians. i do believe the company is going to be a partner with a larger company. i would prefer to see it in the 20s. that's where i would pull the trigger. bob in massachusetts, bob? >> caller: yes, boo-yah, mr. cramer! >> boo-yah to you. >> caller: my stock is clmt. >> i know, i know, i should be interested in those kind of things. i'm going to send you to a better one in the industry. i'm going to send you to linn energy. more reliable, better. >> buy, buy, buy! >> i think it fits your risk portfolio, if that's the stock you like. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round"! >> the "lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade. i'm done!
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all right. today may have been another loss for the market. dow closing down for its third consecutive day. but as i said earlier, the great thing about this game is that tomorrow the bulls can easily come roaring back. the key to smart investing, though, is having a portfolio that can profit no matter who is winning on any given day. and the way to do that is through homework and diversification, and that's why we preach being diversified and play "am i diversified?." this is where you call me, tell me your top five holdings. i tell you if your portfolio is diversified enough, or if you need to mix it up little. first a tweet. someone went to @jimcramer on twitter. this is dr. ted wattsen who writes, am i diversified? gld.
that's the spider gold trust. monro muffler brake, dunkin', which is dunkin' brands, cat, which is caterpillar, and toll, toll brothers. and boo-yah, thanks for all you do. #madtweets. gld. that's my fav. that's the way to play. caterpillar, diversified machinery company. monro muffler, a terrific auto related play. and dunkin' brands, a restaurant chain. we got auto, we got machinery, we got housing, and we got gold. hey, listen, that is picture-perfect, doc watson. well-played. >> hallelujah! >> let's go to lorraine in minnesota. lorraine? >> caller: yes, thank you for taking my call, mr. cramer. i have american mobile, amx. heckmann, hek, eli lilly, hewlett-packard, hpq, visa, v. now, am i diversified enough? [ buzzer ]
>> let's check it out. visa, one of my hot stocks for the end of the quarter, end of year. eli lilly, what a fantastic stock. we recommended it a while ago. goldman just woke up to the idea it's good. hp, one of the worst stocks i've ever seen, but it's a technology play. heckmann. an oil service play. and telco, technology but involving finance, real technology and drug. technology, drug, finance, oil, tech, a telco. ♪ hallelujah >> that was easy. >> janet in my home state of new jersey. >> caller: hi, jim. my brother and i watch you all the time. >> thank you. >> caller: a good boo-yah to you. my stocks are eaton, etn, verizon, vz, mcdonald's, mcd, state street, stt, deere, de. am i diversified? >> a wild performer. we have interesting. eaton, a charitable trust name. a core position for action alerts for years.
state streets finance. mcdonald's, deere, terrific product. not a well-run company, unfortunately. and verizon telco. we have telco, farm equipment we have restaurant, we have diversified manufacturing, and we have financial. again, picture-perfect it's got yield, yield, yield. not bad. boy, our players really were good tonight. ♪ hallelujah >> i know oh, come on, these guys all know the game. hey, you know what? i don't care. diversification is the only free lunch in the stock market business. "mad money" is back after the break. [ male announcer ] research suggests cell health plays a key role
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what happened to the trading pattern that made money for ages and ages? i'm talking about the fourth quarter technology trade, the trade that allows you to take advantage -- >> buy, buy, buy! >> of all the tech from the technology czars and the consumers always buy in the last three months of the year. you buy tech stocks now, you profit from the fall sales. i hate trades based on nothing more than superstition. like sell in october because we usually crash in october. buy in an election year because we've been up in election years before. these are all presuming some steady set of fundamentals, as if nothing changed year over year. with the facts seasonally, things should do the same. that's nonsense because the facts are never the same. they differ all the time. but two things have always been certain about tech, two facts. one is that there is a holiday buying season, where regular people go out and buy consumer products that use a lot of flash memories -- semiconductors, dish drives, screens and the like. and the other is companies have a lot of money allocated each year for their technology budgets.
that money needs to be spent that year or taken away. if it hasn't been spent by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, it's going to get spent in that quarter, because the people managing these budgets would be idiots to do anything differently. and believe me, they're not idiots. flushing budgets, just like clockwork, year after year after year. these aren't unreliable, they're empirically analyzed trends that make way too much sense to balk, except this year. because this year the seasonal tech trade so far has been nothing short of disastrous. why? first, the whole consumer tech world is currently in disarray. sure, we're selling gadgets in this country. but consumer tech is global, and there is a total slowdown in the global consumer spending world that we with our better than anemic spending can't make up for. plus, the consumer is faced with two choices there is the apple closed system, and then the open system for everyone else. guess what? the consumer likes the closed system more. so the consumer side of tech seems to have gotten very zero
sum lately. apple gains market share, and everyone else loses it. the enterprise is even more convoluted. we've seen a gigantic shift away from internal tech hardware buys and towards the cloud. that's the reason why i bring on the ceos of red hat and salesforce.com. those are businesses that allow us to save on hardware costs while allowing us to become more productive. each no longer needs its own gigantic tech infrastructure, which is costly and has these stocks for year. they call it bring your own device to work world where individual companies are taking tech matters into their own hands, typically buying apple products and convincing information technology departments to back away from the dells and the hewlett-packards and the research in motions of the world. we have witnessed a slowdown in telecommunications spending. it appears that verizon and at&t built out their network from now, don't need any more infrastructure. jeez, if metro merges with t-mobile, that's another client that is going to go. these are all trends that are manifesting themselves right at
the moment when tech spending is supposed to be at its most robust. these surface in avnet, the tech supermarket which has always been a solid part of the fall tech trade. i told you that. but it blew up hideously this morning. or how about jay bill circuit? that's been a bedrock, but uncharacteristically has lagged the market horribly so far. i know i believe in this tech cycle. it has worked for me for years and years. but here it is october, right in the tech sweet spot, and it sure isn't happening. now i'm thinking maybe it just won't happen at all. the result, unless you have a very specific tech player that is taking share and taking names, here i'm thinking amazon and google, two of my hot stuff selections, and it might not pay to play the seasonal tech trade. in fact, it looks like it's become the most deadly trade of all. stick with cramer. new pink lemonade 5-hour energy? 5-hour energy supports the avon foundation for women breast cancer crusade. so i can get the energized feeling i need and support a great cause?
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