tv U.S. Farm Report FOX December 5, 2010 4:00am-5:00am EST
hello and welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm john phipps. on my three-hour commute from our farm each week, i've tried to find ways to stay alert and make use of the time. one answer has been recorded lectures. courses in these disciplines have been revlatory. after several history courses, one conclude emerges for me. the most pivotal points in western civilization were marked by confusion and surprising sequences from individual actions. some day our choices would be thought for scholars. sitting in for al is trisha. >> thank you, john, in the
news, agriculture secretary says agriculture is leading the country's recovery. his remarks came has the ag exports forecast was released for 2011. exports are are now valued at $126 billions, that's $13 billions higher than the august forecast. one reason behind the increase, china's strong demand for u.s. soybeans. usda says ag exports show a trade surplus. as we move through the last few weeks of the 111th congress, rigorous debate continues. at issue is a blending credit and a 54-cent import tariff. this week a group of senators sent a letter urging to allow the incentives to expire on december 13th.
livestock groups and food makers say the sub sities keep things high. on friday, montana's senator proposed extendingtending the tax credit for one year, but at the lower rate of 36 cents a gallon. a leading tire maker says prices are headed higher. they're boosting prices 10% because of raw material increases. at the same time, titan will boost its products as well. that's it for the headlines. now back to john for crop watch . >> crop watch this week begins in central kentucky. a viewer says it's been too dry in his part of the state.
he says they got some rain recently, but not enough to make up the difference on grazing land. they didn't get as many cuttings as last year. he hope as recent blast of cold air kills grasshoppers. pests were a big deal this year. wheat, it was pretty late planting but some warm days helped get that done marketing rally
held this week outside chicago. we assembled an impressive panel of some of the best grain analysts in the country, many of them you see here each week. the first topic is the price of corn. panel host and pro farmer . the first topic is the price of corn. proeditor asked if there's room on the upside. >> i think so. there's a reversal at the top of the chart. you look at a lot of the commodity charts. you can argue that the party is over and it's just a matter of time before we go down. on the other hand, look at
china buying beans, we're in a very bullish situation. we could run out of carryover supplies so i wouldn't be surprised the we haded a couple of corn and beans. >> i actually think we have the top end of the market. but i think it could be challenged here. i don't want to be short for the next four or five days. we could possibly take things out a little bit. if scott is right and we have seven-dollar corn, you're going have every livestock producer out of business because there's not going to be anyone left to eat the stuff. you better hope he's wrong. you're going to kill the demand. i think short-term the markets look positive. come next fall, i will bet heavily you will not have a shortage of corn. >> i think you have to be friendly, yet. the market did put in a top.
we have to recognize that. the funds were up to a 52% ownership in the soybean market. that's just a little bit heavily priced when we're talking talking about regulation. we're seeing it selling. today is the first day we've seen that since prior to the usda report. this is an encouraging thing. >> the corn crop and the cvot wheat crop, that's different than what you're planting. 680,000 acres of production is represented. that's one guy in new york pulling the switch on 22,000
corn contracts. as bullish as we all may be here here, it doesn't necessarily mean that your local market will move in tow with it initially. >> when you talk to people in the end user position, they're not too excited about the opportunity for higher priced corn going into their feed lot and going into their hog operations, dairies, whatever the case may be. we're in this very difficult position right now where fundamentals suggest we could go higher. there's going to be a will the of people concerned about having ample supply to carry us through. at the same time, we've brought a massive fund position to the table. we have end users who are very concerned who will be the next person to buy this thing is this. >> i think we've got an environment of unprecedented
volatility in this market. i think both. bullish and bearish. i think it's unprecedented opportunity. i think as we sit here today, as we look at that's prices, all right it's at an attractive level. regardless, as we sit here today, opportunity is present today. can we get a lot better? you bet. could it get worse? yes, it could. i think each day we wake up and say what new is going to happen, whether it's in china, conflict in korea. something new will come and eventually, no one will see when the top is in until the top is in. i would suggest that this is unprecedented opportunity. producers, exciting times, challenging times, but the next six to nine months may surpass 2008 in terms of volatility. >> mike, you're a bit of a
specklator than a risk manager. so do you think bullish or bearish. >> i don't know where the markets are going to go. all these things, yeah, there's bullish fundamentals out there. i would want to ere on the side of playing those, but you can wake up and things change overnight. if you're in a position, you have to have a stop in. as momentum builds to the down side, i would go short. i think you have a chance of going a lot higher, though, it's not just grains. it's silver and stock market looks very good. gosh, a whole bunch of commodities that look good. who are we to say when it's going stop. the trend is up, play it ! when u.s. farm report returns, we continue your conversation at the 2010 marketing rally with the look at volatility in your marketing strategy. u-s farm report. a
market rally was volatility. for some it equals opportunity. >> the real story here is volatility and uncertainty. you can talk the outlook all day long, and the bottom line is you can't out guess this. when it starts becoming unprofitable, it can be turned off overnight. china can quite buying overnight. or they can keep buying and we'll go sky high. prices get into a wild spiral upward because of margin call liquidation. there's massive uncertainty here. the only way you play that out is by being prepared for everything. you have to lay out all the possible scenarios and have statjys in place that no matter who's right up here, you're right and you win. >> so many times you hear farmers talk about volatility and how it seems to be your enemy. well, it's your friend. the more you have opportunities
in the market, be this position to take advantage of all those opportunities. as a risk manager, i like to do that with long opposition. i want every one of my customers -- and to me this is a key to being a better marketer -- you want to be in position today to be able to take advantage of whatever tomorrow brings. >> it's not always going to be the thing you think it should be. you need to, as others have eluded to here, be ready for those moments. i too share with mark an opinion that we need to be ready for whatever happens next, and the fact remains we don't know what those events are. we don't know if they will be good, if they're going to be bad, and more importantly what their impact on pricing will be because, remember, everybody is looking at these same reports with their own opinions and looking at it as to how it impacts their business, buyers and sellers alike. as we come at this market, you
have to be ready for anything. >> you can't fall asleep in these markets. a lot of us don't like watching it day by day, but you have to learn and develop something within you that says what is it out there that could possibly happen to make me think i'm wrong on the bullish scenario? >> opportunity is present today. can it get better? you bet. could it get worse? yes, it could. there's a lot of uncertainty. we wake up each day and wonder, what new is going to to to to happen? china? north korea? i would suggest this is unpress sented opportunity. exciting times, challenging times, but i think the next six to nine months could be something that may surpass 2008 in terms of volatility. >> back a year ago, the government was playing a policy
for inflation. that's the only way out of this mess. we didn't come out with a bullish agriculture report until october. but guess what the funds were doing two weeks before that. they were selling. the next policy on the books to be debated is ethanol credits and speculation and positioning. so i think the funds are playing the opportunity created by government policy. i think rearising is how they react to that government policy. they're driving the market. >> this is an old bull market. it's been since june. look at the timing and the length of the bull markets, this is a long one. >> this will turn on an event. if we all knew what this event was, it would turn. there will be something that happen that none of russ talking about. there are times you can go to sleep in a market and not follow it on a dilly basis and think, well, if i miss it
today, i'll get it next week. this is not that kind of market. this is a market that in my perspective, you have to follow it every day right now. >> i believe that the american farmer, this idea of marketing and breaking even, is the most foolish thing you've ever been taught n. these markets that are so volatile, you need to make every money you possibly can. look at the price levels we're at. you can make hundreds of dollars an acre. are people in corporate america making those kinds of returns on investments? no. if you don't make the money that the market is offering you, someone is going to buy up that land and they're going make it. >> thank you our panelists for our vigorous debate. mike hoffman is coming up with your forecast. your eyes off the
we'll check out the drought monitor. we've had rains through the ohio valley. that's brought the dry conditions down a bit, but the southern great lakes, matchup of indiana dry. topsoil is getting wetter there. the west, still dry. louisiana on up into the southern mississippi valley. we're getting worse and worse across alabama, georgia, down into florida. we're starting to spread across south texas. eastern portions of colorado getting dryer as well. unfortunately this is the whole area, the southern third of the country that i don't think get as whole lot of moisture this winter. here's the jet stream by monday. powerful system sitting in eastern canada. that's going to be coming across the great lakes and that's going to spread some lake effect snows across a
large area. you can see another trough getting going by friday or saturday and bringing cold air. looks like a start. it's going to be gold in parts of the southeast as well, but you're going to stay milder in the southwest. here's the day by day forecast. we'll go to monday. first of all, lake effect snows ongoing. snow showers up and down the appalachians. we're going the see a little system in the four corner region with some rain and snow. that system dives into the gulf, maybe some lingering showers in houston and new orleans. lake effect snow showers continue later in the week. another system out west by wednesday. by friday, it's moving across the country. we're going to see northern plains rain showers farther to the south. these days. in
fact, it is a surprise when prices don't move dramatically. and when they do, we go looking for the "story". part of the hard- wiring of our brains is to look for patterns in events that will help us predict outcomes. adding a narrative to tie observations together in a nge alsod-effe helpso store ose life ose abilities r when ample, somefe factors in the ain markets ropeancurrency woes,ng efforts ather, south ngressional ficit battles, rd-pressed sts, abundant ee-range
llars, andchanging food by no means ist is exhaustive - i've plausible story plain why at is exactly plausible story plain why at is exactly whais happening. it was more surreal than anything. you're under fire. you're getting blown up. there's definitely adrenaline. there was the explosion, and i remember just opening my eyes, and it got both of my legs. i had surgery after surgery, you know, i was on a lot of pain medicine. "what's going to happen next? and how long am i going to be here?" the wounded warrior project dropped off a backpack for me. and it had everything in there that i could possibly have needed at that time. peer visitors, people who have been where i had been before, said, "look, brother, "everything's going to be okay. "three months from now, or four months "from now, a year from now, you'll be fine." that type of thing was an invaluable service. to be honest, i don't know if i would be as well adjusted as i am now if it wasn't for them. to learn more, call...
or visit woundedwarriorproject.org. it is hard to keep your eyes off the grain markets it is hard to keep your eyes off the grain markets these days. in fact it's surprising when marketing don't move. when they do, we go looking for the story. we look for patterns and events that help us predict an outcome. a cause and effectlingage helps us with those life lessons. to explain any mundane markets today -- some of the factors in the grain markets are chinese inflation fighting efforts.
european currency woes. congressional deficit battles. abundant free range investing dollars. this list is by no means exhausting. my point is practically anyone can mix those into a mildly plausible story to explain why corn is up 20. the hunger often distracts us. thriving as a farmer does not require being able to explain our markets. many of us don't understand women, but many of us have been married for decades. coming up in our next half hour, kentucky farm opens its doors to curious school kids. a major food
hello and welcome to u-s farm report, i'm john phipps. ah, the christmas season. in between stringing lights and shopping for presents, many of us on the farm are observing another december tradition: closing the books and building a budget for next year. this has never been at the top of our favorite activities list, but this year brings new wrinkles. the economic variables in our profession have become economic unpredictables. while budgets the economic variables in our profession have become unpredictable. while budgets have always been a stab in the dark, many of us feel that our knife has been
switched for a pillow. i have several versions handy when i have my annual planning meeting with my banker. she can pick one she likes. >> well, a comprehensive food safety bill took a big step forward on tuesday, but then it stumbled after. that the senate passed legislation that gives the fda more authority to increase inspections of food processing facilities. the $1.4 billion bill passed the senate 73-25. it would place stricter standards and give the fda more power. roger bernard explains why the senate will need to vote again. >> well, what ended upbringing this food safety bill to a halt
was fees. the fees were probably not a problem themselves, but in budget times, they era considered to be taxes. here's where the problem lies. the u.s. constitution requires that any tax policy has to originate in the u.s. house. here's how things are going to play out. there's a couple of possibilities. one, the house could assign a house bill no.to that senate legislation. approved. send it back to the senate for their approval. the other possibility, take that food safety legislation and wrap it into a house bill, vote on it, and send that package back over to the senate. either wayings we're going to have to have another vote on the package. here's the complicating factor. all 42 of the house republicans say they will not consider any other legislation until the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are dealt with by this current congress. woe government a situation in
washington where voters spoke loud and clear, saying that they were tired of business as usual. i'm roger bernard. the food and drug administration said it will allow an iowa egg farm linked to an outbreak of salmonella. to continue to sell to consumers. the company has not been allowed to sell shell eggs since then except to breaker facilitys that past rise the eggs. the fda has now given the go ahead to sell eggs from one of its six farms. that's it for the news. time for the national forecast by mike hoffman. a cold pattern continues for eastern half of the country. a good trough to start this
week. florida, very cold air. there's an outside shot for freeze a morning or two here. for parts parts of central and northern florida, you have to watch that. snows threw the great lakes and upper appalachians. it's going to be sitting there in canada dumping snow. as we head into wednesday, the trough moves east. so lake effect snow through the great lakes and central appalachians. ridge tries to build through the middle of the country. next trough and the next system coming in with rain and snow out west. take a look at friday. the next system and a trough moves on through the middle of the country. that's going to bring snows to the plains. showers in parts of eastern texas. another system coming out west. kind of an interesting week
across the lower 48. there's next week's temperatures. this is for december 12th december 12th through the 18 18th. below normal temperatures in montana. a large area continuing to be colder than normal. above normal, west texas through the four corner region and into southern california. this continues that dry trend, unfortunately, for the southern tier states. above normal trillion the great lakes into the northeast for next week and also above normal for much of the rockies into the northwestern parts of the country. m mt., illinois, ohio, below normal temperatures. above normal for the four corner region. john? the ultimate farm quest
series is brought to you by case ih. with the growing season now in the books for midwest farmers, we're also wrapping up our efforts in the ultimate farm quest. as participants in the ultimate farm quest, they received their advice from a panel of experts. what did they learn about their fields? did they make any marketing plan changes? coming up in the next few weeks, we'll take an in-depth look at their season. we hope you will join us. when we return, kentucky school kids head to a farm for a hands- on classroom. spirit of the heartland is next. for years county
graders. they grow fresh pro produce like sweet corn. do these children know where all these things they enjoy come from. >> have you ever sit and asked them? we ask every load that comes through. this makes the 18th or 19th 19th year we've done this. they have no clue where steaks come from. they just think you go to the store and pick it up. and you don't. >> while making that statement, bonnie said she's seen kids now that have a better idea than they used to of where food comes from. >> there's about five to six years ago you would ask the wagons do you have family that has a farm or live on farms and there would be six on a wagon in about 30 kids. i think we're getting better. a lot of people are growing
gardens and they're beginning to associate gardens with farming. so i believe that's getting better. >> the rock castle center has been holding this program for two decades at the farm. rock castle agent tom mills says students are sometimes surprised to find out that animals on the farm are slaughtered to produce the food students like. >> a lot of kids, you know, don't realize that we harvest animals for our food. you may get a child that really likes a particular product, whether it be a sausage, egg sandwich, or a hamburger with bacon on it. and they don't realize that those are animals that are harvested to make those. >> fourth grade students make the trip to the farm. teachers look forward to it for
the educational opportunities. >> i really enjoy this field trip because it's very educational. it's right here in rock castle county. the students get to learn about life on a farm. they really enjoy it. >> from the university of kentucky college of agriculture, i'm jeff franklin reporting. >> for more information, including directions to the farm, we'll post a link on our home page. next week we're off to oklahoma to meet a veteran square dance caller who's showing no signs of slowing down. his story next week on spirit of the heartland. baxter black sup next on u.s. farm report. please stay with us. gets reflective
as he brings us "the big one that got away" blues... baxter is back in two weeks to tell us why he lov in this week's visit, baxter brings us the big one that got away blues. >> their pictures are painted on ancient caves. or rye i don't know has held them on high. time beyond time they have sat by the fire in the evening. offers prayers to the heavens above for the swiftness, the big heart and case of creatures
that challenge their strength and will to be worthy and up to the task. but often they fail because nature is fair. but they try. that's all they can ask. and there around the campfire, small doubts tweak their mind as they stare at the smoke and glow to summon the courage. though none of us are -- each of us hopes that luck will ride with him at dawn because a second or step in time or in space is the difference between get or gone. these primitive thoughts have clouded their mind since man started stalking the earth. they've heard these same songs
since their birth. it hums through their veins. everyone dreams, though, and that's what brings them here under the stars, that prime force they could never explain. as deep as the crate craters on mars. by the glow of the embers, the teller remembers, the big one that got away blues. this is baxter black from out there. >> baxter is back in two weeks to tell us why he loves women who wear chaps. when we come back, tractor tales and our country church salute. please stay with us. wolverine state
for this week' tractor tales. dan dysinger sh we're off to wolverine state for this week's tractor tales. dan shows off his case that's been in the family for years. >> this is a 1944vac with chicken roost. it was built in 1944 and 45 is when they discontinued the chicken roost and went to the other drag link style for their steering. this particular tractor was originally owned new by my
uncle who passed away in 1973. and i discovered the tractor a few years ago buried under junk in the back of a barn at an old settlement in claire county called dover. i was able to retrieve the tractor. the owner was willing to sell it to me. i completed the restoration of the tractor. it's really a family here loom, and i'm proud to own it, just from the memory of myal. he had a small farm south of claire. he used it there. as a matter of fact, my dad and my uncles remember using this tractors when they were youngsters helping my uncle on his small farm. it was a common model. i don't recall how many were built in 44, but i know they discontinued this style. we use it for duty and detail at the tractor show.
it does not pull implements other than a hey wagon. i think i used it to pull a plow once or twice, but that's it. it's a show piece. these were not heavy duty. i rated at 15-19, what they call 1519. it would pull two 12s easily. if it was light soil, it would pull two 16s. if you could be used to drive the bell. it would do other chores like hauling hay or cultivating. those were the utilities that these were used for. our first country church salute goes to the zion church in illinois. begun as the united church of christ by german immigrants.
the original church was destroyed by tornado in 1878. the current building was built in the same year. they joined with a sister church. our second church is the lieutenant ran church in concord, nebraska. it's a town of 160 in the northeast corner of the state. they celebrated 125 years of ministry this september. swedish settlers began church and held the services in the railroad depot. better and crystal bum mel submitted their church. time to check the feedback from viewers in the stay with us the mailbag is next.
the consumer has seen no inflation. you obviously don't shop for groceries. some items have gone up 20% to 70%. our monthly spending has gone up over double. james, thank you for writing. the most popular measure of inflation is cpi. it's calculated each month after checking the price of thousands of goods and services, adjusting value and weighing the items that simulates what all americans are buying. housing, transportation, et cetera. furthermore, it's weighted proportionate to their sales. each of us have our own rate. if your home is paid for, other tie tells make up your cpi.
depending on which items are in your grocery basket, your personal inflation experience can be much higher or lower than the cpi. nonetheless, in october, year to year, comparisons show increase to only .6%. that's the lowest annual inflation rate since 1957. as always we want to hear from you. send comments to info at usfarmreport.com or leave voice mail. for trisha and mike, i'm john phipps, thank you for watching u.s. farm report. be sure and watch next week. we'll be working to do even better.
it was more surreal than anything. you're under fire. you're getting blown up. there's definitely adrenaline. there was the explosion, and i remember just opening my eyes, and it got both of my legs. i had surgery after surgery, you know, i was on a lot of pain medicine. "what's going to happen next? and how long am i going to be here?" the wounded warrior project dropped off a backpack for me. and it had everything in there that i could possibly have needed at that time. peer visitors, people who have been where i had been before, said, "look, brother, "everything's going to be okay. "three months from now, or four months "from now, a year from now, you'll be fine." that type of thing was an invaluable service. to be honest, i don't know if i would be as well adjusted as i am now if it wasn't for them. to learn more, call...