tv U.S. Farm Report FOX December 11, 2011 4:00am-5:00am EST
. today on united states farm report. the u.s.d.a. reports new employ and demands numbers. the search for missing customer funds is not going well at mf global. and policy experts sharing views on a new farm bill. >> united states farm report brought to you by chevy, and their award winning cars, trucks and crossovers. . >> hello. welcome to united states farm report. the normally low excitement december supply demand report fit in perfectly with the december weather. al will have the less than thrilling numbers in a moment. many of us are already looking toward the real heavy weight report in january. unusually strong basis levels in much of farm country and the absence of huge outdoor piles of corn have raised questions about where all this corn is we are supposed to have grown. i sense a lack of interest in
produce ear tension to markets right now. let's get to the headlines now. here is al. >> thank you. world supply and demand numbers the u.s.d.a. on friday were uniformly bearish. ending stocks rose largely due to higher production in other countries and lower exports the united states. farm price estimates lowered 90 for beans and 50 for wheat. ending stocks came in at 848 million-bushels a corn, 230 for beans and 878 for bushels for wheat. all slightly above analyst predictions. in washington the former ceo of mf global testified before the house.
they want to know who caused the collapse of the company. it's one of the largest filings in hit. there are questions about how $1.2 billion supposed to be apart from company funds disappeared. the ceo said he hasn't had access to some of the company information and he doesn't know where the money went. he and mf global where hot topics at farm forum. three senators attended. the three spoke about the 2012 farm bill. they praised the bi-partisan work that let them finish a draft saying though the committee failed the bill could still be used this year. >> in only -- in washington could you spend all summer and fall trying to cut the budget
and then when that is apart you try to spend more. that's what they are doing. to try to do all this they want to d payroll tax cuts and doctor fixes and amt and all this they will need money so there may be a slim chance that they may say, the agriculture committee has 23 billion, maybe we should pull that in. we will see how that plays out. >> senator said she is not planning to release the final language of the so-called secret super committee farm bill. both senators say they think the public deserves a look. those are the headlines. now back to john. >> crop watch this week is a multistate swing. the nash office in ohio said corn harvest has reached the 80% stage. last week farmers had about a
day of good waste much of it'll be harvested after the ground starts to freeze. meanwhile in the southern plains u.s.d.a. said lingering snow is providing grain was moisture. there was about an inch of snow around texas. from buffalo nebraska most of the fall work is wrapped up. the bean yields average the 81- bushels an acre. the july wind storm took a big bite out of the crop. when we come backal is back to talk markets. the discussion starts in just two minutes. please stay with us. . our round table guest is mike flores, and andy and we had a supply demand report that came out on friday and everybody is looking at it and mike i know you are a speculative trader and you have said you don't pay much
attention to the numbers. the bearish report you must be thinking something. >> i pay attention but don't believe them. i don't think the -- we are getting accurate numbers. regardless i'm a speculator and i have to live and die with that. the markets took a -- on the corn fairly well. beans didn't do so well. they add aid lot of supply to the soy but i think it's coming to the end of the down and i'm quite positive on corn. i think it's a good-bye right now. >> you don't think it'll go further. >> i don't. >> i will go to you and yes. i know you have close relationships to people in china. one of the things that the report said they raised the amount of corn china had on hands. that true? you are smiling. >> you can believe everything that the u.s.d.a. and china says but it probably won't do you any good. they say the crop is 191 which i know they had good crops in
china and it was better than the last two years, there is no question about that. if you talk to people that actually buy the grain over there and what the farmers had, my numbers in the 170s. we are a good 20 million-tons below what the u.s.d.a. says and road -- the odd thing is that the u.s.d.a. sent people over a couple months ago. people forget things and i -- u.s.d.a. said the crop was smaller and you know it like the illinois crop was small. it's not very hard to figure out. they thought it was not as big as the 180 they were saying then but they throw 190 on the report. that's -- china holding half of all the corn stocks no the world and the price is eight to nine dollars on the board and no corn stocks last year and now all this. i would be bullish corn and if you buy in to the global stocks being high you are wrong.
>> also, they suggested we would grow more in every other country in the world -- in addition to us and plant more next year. so -- looks like they are trying to set up a kind of bearish trend for next year in terms of corn and wheat. is that true? is that just me? >> i think the -- the wheat is legit. >> okay. >> we have put it in a lot of acres around the world. there is no question about that. there have been good crops, i think that is legit. south america is question mark at this point. i know one thing, i buy a lot of high crop insurance when i have la nina in the united states and it's setting in in brazil and argentina that's dangerous saying they will have a souper crop in the next two months, i saw our stuff here with la nina. >> they could have not have a
good weather and it could be a less crop. we start arguing about it is 1st of june you don't know until the end of august. where are we going to go? are you kind of bullish. >> 100% technically and i have all the cater -- when they get this far bent in one direction you get a reaction back and that's what i'm looking far. march corn could probably -- in the next say month, six weeks could probably touch 6:50f. i got cash corn i -- i think there is going to be a significant bounce. >> soy guess what i'm trying to do is create for the producer out there, because is he looking at his next year's crop and coming holiday season, saying it doesn't look all that hot right now. what should we think about between now and the 1st of february next year?
>> we are going to set crop insurance premiums in february, the numbers are 75% of the time are february prices, the way it's been recently its been higher than decent. january and march has been higher than that. i believe pricing opportunities between here and there and we should be able to get revenue guarantees that you should be able to build a market plan off of then. i think it's a little early to be thinking about it and being ready for it. >> if you look at -- down the line you say we will have to adopt the prices that corn is today and they won't be that crop potential we were talking about seven or eight dollar corn and a lot are putting cash rents up so that will make a difference. >> yes it'll. the new crop is only trading in the 60s or the 5:50. the profit levels are less but still there. probably shouldn't pay $700 for cash rent. >> we will be back with more
well, i first started skating with my friend. he had an extra board, and then he just gave it to me, and i've been skating ever since. well, when i don't land a trick and i have my mind set on something and i'm not getting what i want, just keep going for it until i get it right. um, my mom, she didn't go to college, so she wants me to experience that whole thing, and so i could end up getting, like, a good job. aah!
i think to get into college i'll have to be determined, just like when i want to get a new trick, and skating's helped me realize i've got what it takes. . mike for he's, we started out with you earlier because you are a speculative trader but that is a different kind of trading than most of a producer and a lot of people watch the
show look at because they are basically supply demand and this kind thing. you look at technical aspects. what kind of technical aspects you looking at that lets you take the attitude that you have right to you now? >> i usually have 12 different indications, from timing -- lows being made now are based on what the marks are doing in the past. a lot of momentum, over sold indicationers, weekly charts, monthly, try to get together where support should come in. com pile that, when they all kind of start leaning to heavy in one direction we are ready to got other way. so, that's what i do. >> basically all the numbers come out and the attitudes, does that take into consideration the outside funds and how much available? they have been backing off the market. >> i'm glad they are leaving. they have out flows of money in the markets right now and
that's what caused a lot of this decline. they have so changed things, so many straight up moves and straight down and you just don't know where markets going to go based on money flowing out and it's not just the gray markets, even the stock markets are saying say yesterday are you down and now up. hopefully that money is leaving doesn't come back. >> all the way into august people talk about what the outside markets doing and about that. >> since the tsunami that's my marking point. since then its been crazy. >> okay. now i'm going to come to you because i know you work crop insurance, you work in the hedge business with a lot of producers s the kind of information that mike uses on a regular basis valuable to a producer making decisions and where should he put that decision in his marketing plan? >> well, mike and i were talking off camera, that --
technicals are interesting sometimes and the whole community was convinced that there was a formation that was built that as the corn market was bouncing down like a ball once it hit 586 on march futures, if it hit that it was going to bounce down to five. didn't happen. maybe it'll next week, or the week after, i don't think so, you have to create these trap type of situations and that's what is stopping it from going down and starts the next thing. if you don't like selling the market when it's low which i don't have you to try to avoid those kinds of traps. you better have half your game in technical its or you aren't going to do very good. as --. >> half the game, not dollars, are you talking half your mind and making decisions. >> yeah. you need to behalf your game there as far as how prices go because you can seek out profits for your corn, places
to do that. we have opportunities every year. you know the problem that you run into it -- all the junk around you and between making your decisions, and -- you get pushed into making sale its on the low when i don't think you should. this is not a time of year i normally cell anything. usually looking for a price increase from here and for the price i'm going to increase from hopefully it's six dollars and that's where we have been hold; maybe 650or maybe better. >> normal year this is the type of year you wouldn't sell any way because it's the independent of the market year and the market is full and everybody is stored up and the price is normally low. >> and -- if all the grain we sold sold off the farm to end users, a lot of that got bought into the first quarter. the end users didn't have to go crazy. prices didn't get real aggressive to the upside when people have to make decisions the end users received you get to another quart we quarter --
you don't have that urgency. > >> i guess my question -- as these prices went down and did go down are the end users going to take advantage of that and start pick up sales? >> probably should. >> are you saying they should. >> we are at the low end of it. i would say identify was in the end user and making those decisions i would be buying. >> i think the stocks report in january will be bullish. i think they did buy and the corn out there got sucked up and i think our first place where we measure it if they tell the truth on the report you will see a couple hundred million bushel its swing back to feed on the next crop report. i have a hard time thinking with more cattle we will have less feed. >> more catting we have fewer this year. >> we have fewer cattle but it's 30 year lows on feed.
>> okay. sot use is there anda -- >> yes. >> yeah. okay we are going to have -- both for positive market. >> i am. >> i think we will had up into the spring. >> okay, good deal. we will be back with more in just a moment. . let's check the weather now as mike hoffman. very been at meetings guys minnesota and they started watching the drought maps, southern minnesota and northern iowa. they are dealing the shortage. it's not rained since july. >> we have been talking about the southern parts all long. southern minnesota, just like you were -- they are in a
severe drought. it's still worst in most of texas and parts of new mexico, western oklahoma be southwest kansas and much worse in georgia but nonetheless it's that dry tend continues that could be a problem in to the next growing season. the jet stream as you can see we continue to kind of see the jet stream from the southwest to the northeast. that generally keep itself mild in the southeast, even milder than normal into the great lakes and the northeast. the coldest air continues to plunge out west. let's see how it goes, cut off, that has been happening several times, the models bringing a shot of cold air in to the northern plains and the great lakes toward the latter parts of next week and next weekend. it may actually warm it up a little bit out west. let's go day by day. we see another cold front across the northern plains, we
aren't talking much moisture, central and southern plains, scattered rain showers, this one will be a big rain maker. that starts to come into oklahoma and kansas with good rain in the southern mississippi valley, eastern texas even and good rains on up into the ohio valley and southern great lakes, some of this area hasn't seen a snow yet. snow on the northwest fringes of that system out west as you can see and in the shot of very cold air in to the northern plains. how far south that gets in question by friday at this point but another system coming across southern plain states will produce rain and snow across the plains, showers and thunderstorms into the southern mississippi valley. it'll be an interesting week, especially the middle and latter parts of a couple of strong systems move west to east. we will check the longer range forecast in the next half hour.
the commodity future trading commissioner is getting a lot of heat over the missing money and why they didn't prevent it. one reason may be because its commission hasn't been get age lot of love from congress or farmers in recent days. this summer a bill to slash the budget was pushed by legislators seeking to prevent
more, oversight. the result is a bad message, we want them to police financial activity but without staff or budget and without hurting trading. in the case of mf global what many hope for is government funds to make their trading accounts whole by focusing the blame on the cftc. the dream is minimal regulation with unlimited free insurance. allen green span has said one of his biggest problem was thinking markets couldself regulate. this is even less likely when they get bigger. he we aren't doing business just with who we know and trust. the problem is always those other guys. a better attitude about market rule works. let us know what you think. send e-mail to united states farm report.com or call and leave us a voicemail.
coming up in the next half hour, ballgames not just about fruit anymore. stay with us. the second half is coming up. . >> united states farm report . the texas koi herd goes down as drought forces liquidation. consumers continue to spend carefully at restaurants movement in case you get a part ridge in a pear tree how to tell when they are ripe. >> united states farm report brought to you by chevy and their award winning cars, trucks and crossovers. john phipps. . >> hello. welcome to united states farm report. all it takes is snow and a new calendar for it to sink in that the year is almost over. most of you i'm sure have added
up your profits and losses my desk is still waiting for me to create quarter from the chaos. i blame jan. i have been busy doing work on the green house support structure. a modest, 1800 square foot wood working shop. there is just to much fun, to close to my house for my attention span. my appointment with my banker looms and even i'm mildly curious about how the year turned out. let's start with the headlines. >> thank you. texas is known for its big skies and herds of cattle but in 2012 they will be smaller. new numbers show drought has reduced the herd by 600,000 head. the 12% drop is the second largest in history and the biggest since the dust bowl of mid-30s. many producers couldn't find hay or pasture for the cattle. that forced them to sell out or
pick through them and heavy culling. many headed for slaughter. the reductions will lead to strong 2012 prices for ranchers but higher prices for consumers. nationally it's expected to dip 4% in 2012. the world's largest pork producer said it'll phase out the use of gestation crates by 2017. smithfield has been criticized for breeding sows in crate that restricts their movements. humane society said they weren't moving fast enough to stop the use of the crates. consumers holding tight on the food service dollars. a firm says continuing high unemployment and low consumer confidence kept visits flat in the first three quarters of the year. they say quick service restaurants account for 78% of
all restaurant visits. have you ever walked through the produce aisle and thumped a melon? what about a pear? the pear bureau says 84% of shoppers don't know how to tell if a pear is ripe. the marketing organization has launched a cam pin to educate people about the proper steps. it's called check the neck. they say just apply gentle thumb pressure to the neck or stemf. it pushes in a bit the fruit is just right. that's it for news. mike hoffman is the national forecast. >> interesting weather pattern into the middle of december. we continue to see cut off lows in to the southwest, we see cold air plunging in to the western parts of the country trying to come east. that continues to be the casew.
are still talking about a split flow this one very mild through the southern tier of this one does at least bring colder air especially out west. you can see the moisture up and down the plain states in to monday and also good storm system out west. that all tracks in to the southern mississippi valley, southern plain states in to the middle of the week and a little bit a shot of cold air behind that as well with the northern jet stream. a lot of rain in to the southern great lakes n to the middle and southern mississippi valley. a fairly wet system coming east. another one into the western states and by friday that one is into the center of the country. this is a pretty good shot of cold air, looks like it comes off the arctic circle. this could bring very cold air in to the northern plains by the end of the week and a good area of snow across the plain states in to the great lakes, south of there kansas on southward more than likely will start off with rain showers. let's check the longer range
forecast. this taking us to christmas eve. above normal temperatures in the southeast, up into eastern portions of virginia. you can see most of the middle of the country including the corn belt near normal. that includes a lot of ups and downs more than likely. it'll average out near normal, probably colder than normal in the southwest. precipitation above normal from east texas which will be good news. the mississippi valley into the great lakes, much of the northwest. probably wetter than normal. that will include snow in the northern sections, below normal the plain states in to the southwest and the 90 day outlook from the great lakes to the northern plains in to most of the norther central rockies, below normal temperatures for the next three months and above normal through texas into the southeast parts of the country as far as precipitation is concerned over the next 90 days we are looking for below normal and -- john in the drought areas of the southern plains in
to the southwest, same in the southeast. above in areas where its been wet and that includes the ohio valley, tennessee in to the northeast and great lakes. >> that's been pretty consistent. >> it has bee. >> thank you. spirit of the woman: what does it feel like when a woman is having a heart attack? it can feel like there's a ton of weight on your chest. you could also feel squeezing, pressure, or discomfort. don't make excuses for these symptoms. make the call to 9-1-1. you might also feel shortness of breath. so don't make up an excuse, like, you're out of shape. make the call. did you know feeling nauseous
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. spirit of the heart land brought to you by yamaha, the first name in motor sports. >> a dairy farmer near the alabama, mississippi state line is very social. from facebook to twitter he uses just about every form of social media to get the word out about american agriculture. in this report from mississippi state, we have more on a farmer bridging the gap. >> i don't think there are any dairy farms in downtown chicago or los angeles so somebody has to let them know where the milk
comes from and may as well be us. >> when it comes to using social media to tell the story of agriculture few do it better than a third generation farmer. using his smart phone he may post over a half dozen messages a day on twitter, all the kois have been milked and fed for the morning he wrote on july 6th. after breakfast we are going to sort and give vaccines. since the messages start from his smart phone he may send them from the floor of the milking barn or from the cab of his tractor for from anywhere else on the farm. the messages get followers a snap shot of farming on an every day basis. >> what seems to work best, or what very found worked best to keep people interested and attract them to list seven talk about what we are doing. day in and out. just give them an idea of what
farming life is and what we do. >> many times he will take a picture like this with his smart phone and post it on twitter. after two -- this cow gave birth today. he has over 2700 people following him on twitter. this popular social media is only one of many ways he talks about agriculture from the farm. of course he has a facebook page up and running for the dairy too. over 1800 people have clicked that they have liked something on the page. long before twitter and facebook, his first communication effort was the dairy farm website. he developed and launched it almost ten years ago. in 2003. his father david is a second generation dairy man and also a mississippi state graduate. david doesn't actively use social media himself but supports his son's efforts to
talk about agriculture. >> somebody fleds to tell our story. there are plenty of people ready to tell a story but may not be just exactly how it is. >> will added videos to his website in 2009 and started posting them on youtube as well. his father as appeared with him in at least one segment. this episode is titled a typical day, and has received almost 1400 views online. >> we do get a lot of feedback from people in agriculture that ask us about some of the things we do on the farm. we also get comments people who live in cities and urban centers who don't have a dairy farm anywhere around them or any kind of agriculture so it's a great way to connect with those people. >> from out in the country, social media is letting will successfully convey his important message round the
nation. from alabama,. >> if you would like to follow will's blog head to gilmer dairy.blog spot..com. we will have a link on the home page. next week find out what it's a wonderful time of year to be a chainsaw artist. we are off to that next week. when we come back orange harvest and a bowl powered by potatoes. we will be right back. >> miss any of today's show in head to united states farm report.com to watch the program online. united states farm report, the spirit of the countryside. you're familiar with the rose, orange, sugar, and cotton bowls. but what about the potato bowl? this year c y . >> this year college football will pay tribute to spuds at the idaho potato bowl . the idaho potato commission is the sponsor of the game is getting
the word out. they grow 12 million pounds yearly, enough to fill five football stadiums. >> they are very important to the state. they represent over 30,000 jobs here in the state and we are a state of about 1.5 million people. 30,000 jobs is important. it represents over $4 billion in revenue yearly to the state. >> the game will be played in december 17th in boise state. the bobcats will take on the aggies. harvest season is in full swingn. this report from the agriculture center we visit the heart of louisiana. >> branches on the trees hang heavy with ripening fruit.
joe eve say this is year the quality is high and the volume plentiful. >> the main thing is without rain the sugar content gets higher and each piece is sweeter. >> a long running drought that destroyed other crops kept the citrus small but didn't keep them from being sweet. >> the smaller the fruit the sweeter >> he has gone through freezes and storms. he still manages to produce naval oranges that are starting to ripen now and grape future for around christmas. the parrish lost half of lieutenants acre after hurricane katrina but still have around 500 acres. the area is perfect for growing citrus. >> great clue mate continues that we have here and the rich
delta soil. those are the main factors. >> it's the most popular food among homeowners but they may have a hard time determining when to harvest. >> pick it from the top first it'll be the ripest first, outside second, inside last, go by mainly color clay but taste it. if you like it that's what you want. pick similar color. >> it can be damaged by hard freeze. the plant it in an area with full sun. keep the ground bare and water it just before a freeze. >> thank you tonight yes. . when we come back tractor tales and country church salute. with tractor
31mccormick motor. it was bought new in 49, ordered it. it was a main motor tractor on the farm until about 1999 and they moved off the farm and went into a town home and my dad got it and then i got it. then we still do use it as a back up for in the winter. you have still bucket that can pop on there and use it so, it's still getting used. this is -- the m's that are out there, some people they are -- amazed at how it works you know and the -- how it's -- operates. compared to nowadays we are all joy sticks, manual bucket, have you to push a lever. five-years that's on it i know
it cruises down the road about 18 miles an hour. maybe 35 horse. that may be pushing it. the buck pet -- we went through the clutch, that was worn out. they had to put the fenders on it. ordered the dealership said fenders wouldn't fit with the motor on. lo and be hold they do fit. when we got it all done, start it up we brought grandpa out here and have him start it up for the first time. so he -- so he did and by then he was in his early 840s and got up there and fired right up this is my favorite one. it's bought new in the family and still in the family. this is my favorite. >> do you like antique tractors? you can down load segments both youtube and facebook. just search for tractor tales.
today's country church salute goes to the first baptist church in kansas. it's celebrating it's 125th year. the church was first organized in 1886, it took a few years but the church built it's first building in 1901. the church was then dedicated in 1960, congratulations to the first baptist church. our second salute to st. paul's lutheran in waverly. it was organized in 1871 with 30 members. in 1885 a new church that is still standing was built. services were done in german until 1918. they add english speaking services then. the present membership is 135. our thank you to lester for sharing the good news about st.
paul's lutheran. as always we want to learn about your home church. salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us. the mailbag is next. . >> country church salute brought to you by farmers feeding the world. agriculture leading the way and feeding a hungry planet. learn more, give, dream huge with us. time now for our weekly look
tim . time for the weekly look inside the mailbag. when i remarked farmers were out growing the farm bill i was reminded of some of the less controversial ranges this would we affected. the nrcs was a real disappointment because of its funding being zeroed out. i have been at several meetings were people were asked what to expect from the government and the answers rarey went far beyond direct payment its, sobbeds and ethanol. every proposal i have seen floats as a way to cut the budget has serious decreases for conversation. even farmers seem as a group willing to short change conversation in order to save
more favored subsides. the problem is that most of us have gotten used to being paid to be good stewards though we take credit for efforts made possible by a carrot by the federal budget. will we continue to protect marginal ground and hold the top soil? i hope so. many of those would work in conservation onto as optimistic. my priority who be to fund programs first and crop subsides not at all. regardless the almost certain cuts will take the measure of the claims to be the real environmentist. as always we want to hear from you. send comments to mailbag at united states farm report.com or leave us a voicemail. for all of us, thank you for watching united states farm report. be sure to join us next week. we will work to do even better.