tv U.S. Farm Report FOX August 12, 2012 4:00am-5:00am EDT
hit producers. us army port. brought to you by the 2000 while chevy silverado. the most dependable, longest lasting full-size pickup on the road. >> hello and welcome to us farm report. i'm john pitts. we all know the news today is the crop report, so to save time on lap one note. the august crop report is always controversial but this one demonstrates how difficult it is for the usda and methodology to assess crop size. i will let our crop experts and markets point out why here's like 2012 and a somewhat rigid bureaucratic rules could erode agency credibility. let's get to those numbers right now. >> thanks john. these usda august production report has been hyped for weeks and there was certainly enough drama
in the actual numbers. the critical estimates were for the end of july, a total of 10.8 billion bushels below most analysts estimates and the smallest since 1995. the national yield was dropped to just under 3300 bushels per acre. total production came in at 2.7 billion bushels with a yield 36 bushels per acre. state-by-state may be the most telling. looking at five key states there is in a decline from one year ago in illinois. 46 in indiana, 31 in iowa and 13 in nebraska. much of that decline came in the last month. minnesota is the one bright spot with 1 bushel difference. and while the supply and demand report was equally shocking. while there was 100 million bushels of old crop carryover, even with usage cut ending stocks looked to be about 650
bushels. for soybeans, both got carryover was dropped by 25 million bushels. coupled with the production of recipients 2012 through 2013 leftovers will be 15 million bushels barely above the pipeline requirements. world carryover was reduced across the world while events in ukraine, and south america contribute to scarce supplies. now back to john for the drought watch. >> the us drought monitor shows a slight improvement in the scope of the drought, but the intensity has worsened. the updated map shows 52% of the country and moderate drought or worse. 20% of the lower 48 states are in extreme drought or worse, up
one point from previous weeks. the intensity extended in hard- hit missouri, arkansas and a number of planes. if that seems early, you are right. usda tells us the earliest published corn harvest in the database is august 30th 1987. and that will be nearly three weeks ahead of its earliest report on record. as a typically they don't start publishing the harvest data until 35% of the corn crop is rated as mature. and the it department says it will provide additional assistance for livestock and crop producers. it will also increase the capacity for lending two small businesses including farmers by
>> roundtable guests this week, we have great hunt from archer financial services and mark gold to talk third egg marketing. we had an enormous report friday and everyone has been waiting all year for this to really move the markets. if the markets really moved that much friday? >> well and made a new contract, and that can issue a key reversal in the corn,
despite all the rhetoric about the disaster that we have out there, and there is certainly a disaster out there, but the market didn't react well to the report. being close about 12 or $0.13 higher in the numbers were a little bit lower than expected. when you do the math on the deeds we have tight carry-ons on the bean crops. >> not much information about week except we are looking at what russia is doing and what the world is doing more en route, wouldn't you say? >> well week is just a follower in this game at the moment, and trying to price itself around the world, were a substitute of corn. and this was in an atypical pattern of any market after a report like this. the market did a great job of dialing in pretty close to where these yields were. and we have a speculative community that can get what it
wants and sells the fact. so in that respect, the markets held up fairly well. considering what we have been doing. the key now will be, how are you going to rush them to stop? you have to keep this price is up to get the job done, and the community out there that needs to stuff just does not have coverage. we have seen it come out from the head of cardio, you can see stocks of various publicly traded agriculture companies and how they have been making new lows for the year, so the job of rationing will probably be quicker because of that fact. but it is going to be a job to be able to take this much demand out of the market. >> greg, there are probably some folks out there who don't realize, what you are talking about are these guys that need this crop later on and have not already purchased this crop, so
then they will be in a real bad situation? >> gas. in other words all the markets got away. we got a lot away from our domestic end users in the feed and grain industry and it got away from the major great companies. so it has left anyone behind. >> so when they are behind, what can they do? >> while the end-user will get some coverage where they can but i don't know that it will be quite as tight as great things. and we look at how the market reacts to this report. over the last three weeks never in history have we seen so much media coverage, not only in print that on tv, and about the dryness and disaster and everything else, corn closes tonight where it's been for the last three weeks. it tells me that the market has
built the same. it's gone from $5 or $4.89, and we may be doing a better job of rationing them that people want to admit. i think the strength of the market came from -- everybody thought this would be incredibly strong here today. it looks to me like i sold corn and unwound some of those threads, but i'm not qsure they will be able to unwind a carry- on. these aren't cheap prices and i think you have to be very careful out there that this thing with dramatically higher. >> still discussion out there, whenever these combines get in the field and we start getting some real yields it might make a difference. >> well, even if the yield does stay the same, it have to take about a hundred million bushels of upbeat usage. that can be done overnight.
there is only a certain amount of packing houses that will take south anyway and the kill floor is a way to keep it constant. then the chicken guy still hasn't done anything yet. so the whole function of this market right now is that the front has to go up to kill this demand and you can't just do it in one day. >> we want to go on how we will cut that demand back. we will return with more us farm report in a moment.
probably keeps in a small? >> well we won't see anything on the ethanol stand. but you know, the beans have done a pretty good job of pricing this thing into getting these spread that crazy levels to entice guys to back off of the nearby. but, the bottom-line here is, despite all the rhetoric and bullishness, korn hasn't made a new reversal. it just tells me that despite all the rhetoric and how tight -- we all know how tight it is, but it's still partly a money game. if they have to blow out of some of these positions these things can have a setback. so all i'm saying is, if you have grain out there or if you are looking to protect your
insurance payment, you need to be doing something today because there's still plenty of risk. we've been at these kind of bubbles before, and into company would cut the price in half in october. china is in tough economic times and i think you have to be careful out there, because you can be too bullish at these levels. >> while the market has been bullish, like i said six weeks ago. but now, the function this market will be now is, a speculator will get out of the market, but it will be put into stronger hands on shallow breaks in corn. corn has to pull together in the front month to get this job done on the rationing. it has to be a job that's never done before. we didn't rationing away on its prices because these people have coverage. this time around that will take a tremendous amount of
liquidation of our heart heard, chicken heard and chickens, and then over in asia we have seen pork prices in china come down about 19% for the year. they are crushing margins are negative now, and it looks like they will have a heck of a crop, at least the way it stands right now. so that takes some pressure off. but as we move down the road, think about time. there's going to be opportunities there to protect october prices, but think about what happened two weeks ago. they take time to kay and the markets are taken to a dollar puts that were trading at $0.30 two weeks ago, they are probably traded down 210 or 11 or 12. so the more time comes off this
market, be patient enough that you don't get sucked in to pay for that because right now he will have an underlying cash fire on the market is not covered, and as long as the market holds together is all you really need. and then you can take advantage. >> i think that's a big question on whether the market will hold together. >> and what would you buy a? >> while today i think you could buy the 750's. >> well, i guy could do that, but what he's really saying is, there is a lot of guys out there who could be looking at that, and it's probably to have some part of the weakness that we could be seen here in in the short- term. but i think the white sky and the smart money will sit back and be able to get those things
is some across southern great lakes and northern indiana is across the website now but it hasn't changed a whole lot. still extreme drought in parts of college in indiana and northern illinois areas. so we might see that slowly getting better, but look at the huge area of an extreme drought and a large exceptional area. thus the highest level possible from west central and south indiana all the way down through most of north and central arkansas, and towards the $10 area as well. so in operation across most of the corn belt. let's check the situation. we will see that trough sitting over the great lakes, not quite as strong as it was late last week, but you will notice the trough lingers with the rich trying to come east but more of a zonal low for a while this
week. we have more of a talk through the great lakes eventually, and that will bring cool air. anytime it comes further south you at least have some chances into the drought area for some showers and thunderstorms. so here are the maths day by day. don't get too excited about this but there will be a stationary front across the stationary planes, and there will be some areas of rain which will help in some spots, but they are mainly hit and miss thunderstorms. from the dakotas down to missouri, in the northeast and also out west. so still some scattered showers and thunderstorms there. more systems moving through the plains states so most of the areas that have been getting
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energy. out nfronting our >> hello and welcome to the us farm report. i'm john picked. as do many farmers braced themselves for the news from the combine yield monitor there is some comfort to know that it will be over with as much sooner than usual. it is racing towards maturity thanks to over abundant solar energy. we will talk about confronting our apprehensions over crop yields later but that initial horrifying shock does wear off often faster than we think. our brains have some pre- wired coping mechanisms and as hard as it is to comprehend right now even those with the worst fields will find ways to create in the future. this resilience is our heritage, both as humans and thus farmers. >> much of the us corn crop is struggling because of too little rain. however that is not the case everywhere. according to the usda, 23% of
the national corn crop is good- i thought. 52% is good-excellent. and the corn crop is hitting the bin and some louisiana farmers are all smiles with 81% good-excellent. >> i would take typically we are cutting around 160 bushels per acre, that's in comparison to last year and a year before that when the statewide average was somewhere close to 130 bushels per acre. >> crusade irrigated corn acres could set records in the state. deals are coming in anywhere from 250 through 200 bushels per acre. those numbers are almost too good to be true. this may not come as a surprise to many of our viewers but it's been a record hot summer. july has been the hottest month ever recorded in the contiguous united states since 1895. the average low temperature was
77.62 greece which breaks the old record set during the dust bowl in july of 1936. in addition, the national climactic data center says it was the hottest twelve-month period of time on record. the number of farmers markets in the country continues to climb. the usda says there are more than 700 markets operating. each year the usda publishes the national directory of the top states were california, new york and massachusetts. the mid-atlantic saw the biggest percentage growth in markets this year by nearly 15%. national farmers or bracket week and this weekend. the 2012 progress show is just a couple weeks away and once again we invite you to join us as we take our show on the road to prove iowa. along with lunch will be treated to a marketing roundtable featuring myself,
our pal, and three veteran analysts. space is limited so make your reservation today. let us know who you are and how many tickets did it by sending an e-mail to mail back at us farm report.com or give us a call. we've been talking about you up on the show and set to get a good look at your tv to go to the middle of your field. but there is nothing more miserable on a hot summer day. >> what we are seeing is the failure of the old windshield survey. 100feet or 200 feet in the center of the field, it must have been scorching because what we thought were decent politician events did not turn out that way. i don't blame people for not wanting to go out there because i wouldn't either. let's go to mike for the weather.
>> well we continue to kind of stupid jetstream dipping into the great lakes and northeast and that means cooler air at least air at least for the great lakes and the northeast. also some areas of thunderstorms. the keyword here is, i'm showing you areas that have a chance and it will be mainly hit and miss kansas through louisiana. there is a better chance all the way down into the missouri valley, but we will have to watch that to see because the jetstream is a little further south than it has spent most of the summer which gives us an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. the monsoonal thunderstorms which aren't nearly as bad as they were a couple weeks ago, but nonetheless, still there. a little bridge trying to come into the great lakes, and scattered showers and thunderstorms from the great lakes back through montana, and hit and miss thunderstorms in
the southeast including eastern texas and parts of arkansas. scattered thunderstorms in the far southwest as well. by friday, you will see the top started to dig again in the northern plains states and that will bring another shot of air in the school areas. hopefully this will be causing showers and thunderstorms and that will bring good news especially in this area. but when you are in a drop it's tough to get that moisture, then we can hope but it's not a definite thing by an late in the week. it's still hot in texas as you can see. now next week, this takes us from august 19th through the 20 fifth. above a normal part for the mid- atlantic and counter alabama, below normal temperatures for the dakotas and montana and across the northern and central great lakes and most of the northeast. cooler weather continues in the northern tier of states. about normal for the northern
plains all the way to the great lakes. the atlantic and right through the central and southern mississippi valley which could be good news for the areas in the severe drought in those areas, at least in the eastern corn belt. a 30 day outlook for temperatures, normal for the mid-atlantic, below normal for the great lakes and northeast anticipation unfortunately below normal for most of the tennessee valley, northern and central plains states and great lakes d d eastern seaboard. >> spirit of the heartland is next.
flying family that is well grounded. >> if you live near wakarusa indiana, the tv family is not hard to miss. especially during the height of the growing season. >> michael is to make this application as a whole as professional as possible. >> debacle he's been working on since the mid- 70s. he owns and operates the business with his wife and two sons. they apply insecticides fertilizers and occasionally seeded wheat, why and grass. >> the biggest thing that happens is causing tremendous growth in our industry. >> that opened the door for his
two sons defined airspace in the family's business. my youngest son wanted to see an agriculture pilot and be involved in the business and we brought him in that he started with a cessna 188. >> i would actually do a lot of things like most kids would do with there go cards when dad wasn't around, but it seemed like he would come back from the neighbors and they would tell stories about you. >> his brother ryan got a pilots license before his drivers license. today he told apartheid in the air and the rest of his efforts are spent managing another effort, agsync. that's an inside job by getting outside and in the air is still a passion. >> is a changeup from the day- to-day activities for me, you get a chance to go in and sit
in the aircraft and fly. >> their sister is also in the family profession but not involved in the family business. >> when she was a junior in high school, she decided she wanted to fly also. >> event mom and wife denise knows her way around an airplane although she prefers -- prefers to work in an office. >> to put together costs and organize field -- organized fields. >> having a flying family is not a job choice to make lightly. >> at that one moment in time, david was in a plane and all three children were in a plane. it was like, my whole family is on a plane at that one moment in time. >> is a feeling she'd have to get used two. david has long been a believer in using his abilities to help
others. in 2007, the family helped distinguish a massive fire at three in the morning after getting a call from 911. they trade and dropped nearly 2000 gallons of water, a service they offered free of charge. >> i feel happiest when i help people. all the businesses we have started is involved around helping people. >> business needs passion making the work easier, though both lighter and the payoff growth for the soul. >> he says he felt the effects of the drought. the number of requests to space- bar undecideds down but praying for spider mites is way up. up neofoffers a detailed de
all things, cowboy's measure things differently than the rest of us. baxter black joins us >> as is the case with just about everything, cowboys may ship things differently than the rest of us. baxter black visits from his arizona ranch to explain. >> grampa tony's dad used to say, a tower full a substantial amount. well, over a minute on an turned cow can hold 300 300- pound than by anybody's standards. say you have a cowful of pocket
change, you'd need a couch to keep it in. say you had a tea of wet laundry, it would take a forklift to get it into the dryer. under that system, 15 scoop polls would equal a cowful. to boot polls would make a screwball, to have holes would make a boot full, half a twofold make a candle, six cant polls and 22 drops in a simple poll. but the dosage for penicillin. it would read poorer teardrops provides scoop polls of body weight in her muscular. does our usa packs a cowful was a measure of weight or volume possibly the distance between post- holes would become the standard unit of measure per link. i.e., or comes to a hand, to coyote went to a post hole. decibels of lightness would be
described in more understandable terms, from chicken pack two pig squeal, for everyday sounds. but noises would be characterized as small rack, bigger rack and a heck of a rack. so did you here about poor but getting bucked off? must have sailed five kia website at the side of the great benefit of this bool and two couples of pellets going in and smashed him flatter than a rabbit ear. they agreed that the postal of intestines. he's been a sheep's gestation recovering and the doc says it was a shock but, i'm sure it just scared that people ought out of him. this is baxter black, from out
al joins us now - i hear we have a rare allis- chalmers this week... >> al joins us now with the tractor of my youth, which is why it's an antique. >> it comes to us from northwest washington state. this is one of three classic alice chalmers and the owner has in his collection of fuel that drives this doctrine makes it unique. >> it's a wheat plant version. the only tractor they had was
this one so they made some wheat plants. they had to go but as with the big boys like mini mall and massey ferguson. in may 200 of these things but they found out they didn't work very good because they didn't have enough power so they discontinued them. to my knowledge this is a propane model, and i've only seen three of them. the wheels on the back are different. they made them like that, i went to an 184.6 tire which the other tractors did not have. they put a different hitch on the back and the big fat vendors which is the only difference. the propane tractors out here were never very popular at all. i knew a few when i was a kid but they were not use out here. propane was born in the midwest. to my knowledge on the only one in the nation that has all three of them. one of them i got had a big dent in the vendor.
offenders are too thin to find on these tractors. the grills on these are all our growth, because it's 1960. black are grilled which indicates which decade it is, and the only thing wrong with the propane thing is you don't stop at the gas station and get propane. most people haven't seen is because there aren't too many of these around. so when i die, the auction is at 2:00. >> so don't forget, this report is online at us farm report.com . today's country church salute goes to think paul's evangelical lutheran church. arab member of them is very subtle and think all the
celebrating its anniversary. there were some tough years during the late 18 hundreds due to outside influences, and even now, there are differences, but current pastor or know a card says the current church has survived. congratulations to st. paul's lutheran and as always we would like to learn about your home church as well. so itto the address on the screen. stay with us, mailbag is next.
time now for our weekly look inside the farm report mailbag... the report from my farm prompted some advice, like this from don cornue payback time now for a weekly look inside the mailbag. last week's remarks prompted this, but if he is going to tell us how bad things are on his farm, maybe he should build a spot on the part that really
has a problem. and, the videographer on the 97-degree day was voting no very emphatically. we simply enter conservative numbers in our computer some of the combine have the final say. but the big reason is one well expressed by stan holman from berlin wisconsin. if the fear of flying is a via phobia and the fear of heights is agoraphobic and come up what's it called but i'm afraid to go into my cornfield? well at that point, we were specifically talking churning a version and we had a pretty sufficient idea even than what the harvest was going to be like. but in answer to your question, it appears psychologists have not gotten around to a fancy label for killed scouting beers but perhaps this amateur can
help. leave us a voicemail at (800)792-4329. i'm john fitz saying thank you for watching us farm report. be sure to join us next week, we will be working to do even better. get more outfits out of clothes.three items you need to stretch your back to school shopping dollars... monday on fox45 morning news.