tv On the Record ABC February 14, 2016 11:00am-11:30am EST
ed: good morning it' s time to go on the record. the lessons learned from and after primary, the second-place finishers need to do to stay in the game. the final takeaways from new hampshire and primary predictions going forward. the record turnout and the key issues driving voters choices. >> from wcvb boston, the inside word from washington to beacon hill. today' s newsmakers are going on the record. ed: good morning. thank you for joining us for on the record this morning. our guest is david paleologos. it' s all is good to see you. he' s from suffolk university and you know him as the director of political research.
janet: by first question is what s the most important lesson going s start with the republicans. david: outsiders, big win, donald trump despite saying everything under the book whether regular or vulgar actually increased his lead. then you have this group of 15% grappling in the second tier for the alternative truckload. janet: does john kasich have legs beyond new hampshire? david: he starts at 2%, even a 10% clean bump, he still falls in south carolina so he has work to do. janet: what about democrats? david: a home win for bernie sanders but he broke all of the ideological and demographic barriers.
david: it did. hillary griffin has a few problems but young women versus older women, she has to figure that out quickly and she has to solve that problem and i' m sure she' s solving that. south carolina she has a 30 point lead, 60 to 30. according to latest averages. that first set of polls today or tomorrow will be probably 20% that puts sanders in striking distance. ed: obviously the larger african-american population in south carolina, although that isn' t necessarily going to bernie sanders. david: i can' t see her losing south carolina. it is a much more significant chunk of the vote. if you are sanders, every african-american voter you see is like 4 because it is a four
ed: you said that donald trump despite saying every unkind word, you' re a member george carlin saying the words you cannot say on television. -- you are member george carlin. janet: he feeds into the antiestablishment anti-washington sentiment and he is that person' s vehicle. i was up in manchester. i met people who had registered for the first time to vote for trump. one was a 64-year-old man who had never voted before and he was going to vote that day for donald trump. janet: one of the more interesting numbers i saw out of new hampshire was that one in 10 voters who took the democratic ballot thought electability is not important. does this mean bernie sanders has put that issue to rest as he
david: i would like to see that out of more states. i think a lot of demographics were skewed by the northwest counties. that touched the vermont border. grafton, places like that. that impacted demographics like women, registered independents. janet: so you would tell hillary clinton to exploit that going forward? t know why she stopped going after him on guns especially in new hampshire. that was a folder ability she began to exploit but in the last weekend, you had this antagonistic approach by bill clinton and others , older women trying to hearken younger women to wake up. i think that backfired. ed 4 in 10 republican voters : didn' t make up their mind until the last couple of days. do you think this trend will continue? janet:
places where it will be that high like closed primaries where you have entrenched registered democrats. lower. decides late. janet: in new hampshire according to exit polls, terrorism and were front and center. not immigration. well that change as you move further south? the issues republicans and democrats. there are social issues in play on the democratic side. for republicans, terrorism and national security are very important. immigration in our polling was the third biggest among republicans. as we go through the campaign, you will see a dovetailing of both priorities. ed: there' s a split. democrats caucusing in nevada
a caucus and primary are very different. david: they are considered meetings of neighbors. in nevada, democrats are going to be going to these meetings and churches and living rooms, high schools. they are going to be talking about the state of the race in nevada. and elect delegates which will then elect the actual delegates. kind of a derivative thing. and south carolina it is proportional representation for how the ballots are cast. in south carolina, donald trump has a similarly in new s. sensitively and delicately. if bernie sanders wh ins, he will be 75. david: and it does not impact
ed: let' s go ahead, you go. you live and breathe presidential politics. even though, for many people all that data can turn into information overload, are you ready to keep these dates and numbers in your head? david: oh no. ed: one of the first talents to those -- towns to vote in new hampshire primary is tiny dixville notch with just nine registered voters. sanders was the choice of all four democratic voters. who won the republican vote, 3-2? david: that would be john kasich. trump finished second. ed: 2. our sister station, wmur-tv, tracked the number of trips each candidate made to new hampshire from january 1st to february 7th. which candidate had the most visits? david: john kasich had 100 town meetings so i' m going to say maybe that' s a trick question.
david paleologos, director of political research at suffolk university. which one of these new england states does not hold its primary on super tuesday? a. maine b. massachusetts c. vermont david: i will say maine. you said it would be zero for five. ed: we should play jeopardy music. it takes 1,237 delegates to win the republican nomination. how many delegates do democrats need to win their party nomination? it'
is it 1237, 1382, 2,237, 2,382. this summer the democrats will host a national convention. it will be in cleveland. which convention is first? david: it is a coin toss. ed: that is right. and it' s only a week apart. ed: you help them with that one. the republican convention as first, july 18 to the 21st. the democrats are week later. janet: the president and power, their party goes last. janet: it' s early, but as you look at the numbers and the delegate fight, is there a path to brokered conventions for either party?
if donald trump does what he did in new hampshire, which is to keep the alternative candidates to have even so that nobody really grows, that is a trend that will continue. on the democratic side, i think it' s frustrating for a lot of bernie sanders supporters because they think that he leads in the delegate count. i think they are beginning to learn how far behind he is to hillary clinton because of superdelegates. i see a repeat of 1984 where mondale who was entrenched in the administration runs for president in 1984, gary hart wins the new hampshire primary, and all the college kids who helped gary hart when are looking at each other back then saying what is this thing about superdelegates? why is gary hart way behind?
i' m going to mention a name. michael bloomberg, if he decides to run, how does it realign the fight, especially if it' s trump and sanders? david: i will tell you in about a week because we are actually fielding a poll with usa today and that is the one valid question i insisted on testing which is bernie sanders, donald trump, and michael bloomberg as an independent. i want to know who he is drawing votes from and what the democratic -- demographic breakdown is. janet: bernie sanders says that if he runs it would hurt him more. record turnouts in iowa and new hampshire. to continue this trend, voters have to believe they have a voice. when do you see either party having an obvious frontrunner? do you think it will take the end of march? april? will it move into closer to the summer rather than quickly? david: looking at super tuesday,
hits the road. if hillary clinton has not taken back the momentum, if she carries super tuesday, she has a good chance of doing that unless she falters in the next week or two in these upcoming primaries. then she should be well placed , she goes into the mantra of these elections which are big states. the republicans have their elections which are all or nothing. between march 1 and march 15 will determine. ed: frequently returned to as the sec primaries but massachusetts was a big player on super tuesday and there are a number of delegates available. janet: how quickly do you think hillary clinton is in trouble in massachusetts? david: she beat barack obama back in 08 here. i think you have to look at the difference between the democrats in cambridge and arlington
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ever. switch to better. switch to fios. >> new hampshire has spoken and the 2016 presidential primary season now moves south and west. but what' s the take away from new hampshire? what are the predictions going forward? >> i saw bernie sanders winning and i' m pleased with it. >> i' m disappointed hillary didn' t make it.
>> i was surprised at how extreme on both sides the winners wear. -- were. >> socialism is very popular right now. it' s really en vogue. >> where? >> here, in this country. >> do see a president donald trump? >> that' s scary to me. >> president trump. >> sounds good to me. >> does it? >> it does. >> eventually trump will lose his luster and i think jeb bush is one of those guys that is poised to overtake it. >> i think on both sides there is a race to be run. >> does this surprise you question mark >> no >> time now for the otr political roundtable. this week our analysts are mary anne marsh on the democratic side, and republican eric fernstrom. i have to tell you the greatest week i saw was from marianne.
manchester, she says it was so [laughter] ed: it was so human and so perfect. janet: every four years as a new hampshire moment. maybe it was that moment. was there a political moment in new hampshire? eric: the thing about marco rubio is that he lacks got the endorsement of rick santorum yet rick santorum could not make one a competent. we go into the saturday debate -- could not make one a copy. he has robotic answers which suggests he is over memorizing. janet: was eric right? is at the moment? mary anne: when you run for president you cannot hide who you are. on the national stage he proved it to everybody.
the gaffes were unbelievable. ed: from an optics perspective, tuesday night, after denying it for a day, he stood up and said i screwed up. mary anne: but on the day of he went through the lobby, went to a polling place, went by every reporter and water. -- motor. he is not to the task. it was too late. the marco rubio you saw performed. eric: i think in some ways the press reaction was overdone. he had a chance to recover. it is still early in the process. we will see how he does. janet: let' s move on to the others. what' s the biggest lesson for those who didn' t win, but still have legs. let' s start with john kasich. eric: with john kasich, a lot of people woke up wednesday morning having never heard of them. that' s an opportunity in a way.
eric: he' s a moderate in the field so he goes down south to more conservative voters. the second challenge is for anyone single-mindedly focused on new hampshire is that they don' organization. now we will learn if he can it. what' s the lesson? everything including herself. look at herself in this campaign and make changes across the board. she has to do it quickly. after the win, the patriots win an ugly game or field goal, but we will take it. you t quickly, super tuesday, -- if she does it quickly, by super tuesday, i can be the nominee. ed: hillary clinton admits she has a problem with young voters,
problem with young women. gloria steinem and madeline albright missteps didn' t help. listen to this and we will discuss. madeleine albright: and a lot of you younger women don' t think you have to, it' s been done, but it' s not done and you have to help. hillary clinton will always be there for you and just remember, there' s a special place in hell for women who don' t help each other. ed: is there a special place for women that do that? eric: it is not a good strategy to shame people. she has problems across the board. the only category of voter that she had was women over 65. this is the problem she had. she' s preaching incremental change and bernie sanders is talking about revolution. this is appealing to young people. ed: is there anyway clinton can fix this problem? mary anne: she has a generational problem, not a
to address it just say all the things you want to change, college debt, good jobs, having the future dude didn' t see your parents had -- having the future your parents didn' t have. i can get it done, bernie sanders hasn' t got nothing done in decades and i can get it done. janet: bernie sanders met with rev. al sharpton the day after the nh primary, hoping to get his endorsement. but during their meeting, cameras caught this conversation. sanders predicts he' ll get the endorsement of a woman despite pressure from the clinton camp. >> so she could be a real asset. sen. sanders: she is incredibly smart, she knows this financial stuff. rev. sharpton: forwards and backwards. sen. sanders: yeah, yeah. rev. sharpton: and the issues that we care about. sen. sanders: yeah, yeah. and she' s gutsy, she has guts. ed: are they talking about our senator elizabeth warren and who
mary anne: bernie sanders wants the endorsement and so does hillary clinton and i' m sure she will endorse whomever the nominee is. elizabeth warren claims she is interested in getting a democratic majority in the senate. it has to give her pause after these contests where sanders almost be clinton and clogged her and you have sure. even though voter turnout was up it was down 30 percent for democrats. she wants a democratic majority and that his mission. she needs to focus on that. her endorsement will not change that. janet: you saw the rest of the conversation and sanders said she had to endorse me, she cannot get away with it considering her followers. is he right? eric: with apologies to madeleine albright, it will be a cold day in hell before elizabeth warren endorses hillary clinton. she will not turn her back on the liberal forces that brought her into office in 2012.
aghast at this speaking fees that she took from the big banks. it would be like an antiabortion candidate getting paid to speak at planned parenthood. it will not fly with elizabeth warren or any other liberal. janet: last click one. people don' t vote based on vice president or based on endorsement.
mary anne: eric: donald trump. you have to give the guy his due. he started off in this race one year ago and nobody give him a shot. he is much like bernie sanders and he won new hampshire but convincingly. ed: thank you both for not saying peyton manning. as we say goodbye, we want to show you one of the most compelling videos on election day. a 600 pound voter
today on "matter of fact." >> today on "matter of fact." the front runners face a new test -- can old strategies work in america' s new south? then, dnc chair debbie wasserman schultz reacts to the race between democrats that no one predicted. >> our candidates are going to continue to run their own races. >> plus, with the stroke of a pen, she became a dreamer. now presidential candidates seek her endorsement. fernando: i' m fernando espuelas. welcome to "matter of fact." donald trump had a huge victory in new hampshire. and now he' s moving south, to a road perhaps that leads to the