>> you won today. but lets see who wins on tuesday. >> lauren b. will. i already talked to tyler about it. just kidding. katie lee is tomorrow. >> i like her. >> she'll be fun. >> bye. >> bye. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not st to entertain you but to educate and teach so call me or tweet me @jimcramer. seven years ago, this market hit rock bottom. and then it caught fire. if you've been glued to your television, you might have
because my late friend mark canes called that bottom on-air in a rare bit of prognostication, haines, then "squawk on the street" cohost, said there had been enough selling, too much selling, and that brilliant call stood the test of time. today the dow climbing, s&p advancing 1.5%, nasdaq gaining 5%, i want to taunt the winner since the bottom 2009 and how so many of them were totally accessible to you and can still be pretty darn good. first you could have made a killing since the generation aloe seven years ago just by being an index fund. they've done fabulously since the bottom. dow rallied 160%. s&p the typical fund up 194%. nasdaq soared 269% over that period of time. many casual observers of the show think i dislike index funds. couldn't be further from the truth. in fact, as i've said
don't even knowfy need to say it anymore but i will, you shouldn't even think about owning individual stocks until you've invest the your first $10,000 in an index fund. those who go jim cramer on twitter @jimcramer say, i want to buy $1,000, i want to buy a stock. i never help you. i want you to be in an index fund. i realize tick picking stocks as very high-risk proposition. which is why i only recommend doing it with your discretionary nonretirement portfolio. your mad money, so to speak. hence "mad money." i can talk about index funds every night. however i know many of you like to buy stocks and i've seen how lucrative owning high-quality individual stocks can be for regular people. i've been in it more than 30 i've seen it over and over again. the professors of finance and doyens of mutual funds may disadry. the simple fact is you could have spotted with your own eyes
gainers since the haines bottom. those to say otherwise don't want you to feel empowered about making your own investments. i guess they think you're stupid. i don't. i have the utmost respect for you and your abilities, which is why i come out here every night and try and teach you how did put those same abilities to use. so what are the best performers since the bottom seven years ago? unfortunately, the best of the bunch, general growth properties, up 9,975% that might have been hard to spot. it went into and out of bankruptcy, got back on its feet faster than anyone thought possible. the second-best performer was easily gettable, regeneron. the ceo was our first guest on "mad money." and he told us regeneron had
stabilize macular degeneration, a disease that causes blindness. the catch? he said you had to inject it into your eyes 12 times a year. that's hardly an inviting prospect, right? when i pressed him on why anyone would do that, he said the current regimen is once a week. so i told you regereron as buy buy buy! i like the third best performer under armour since my daughter's field hockey team adopted the clothing line. my eyes didn't lie. 2,482% gain. gettable. because i saw what my daughter was wearing and did the homework. we've had ceo kevin plank on for years and we've recommended you buy every tip. this recent pull-back no different. under armour's a technology
clothes. wyndham worldwide, up 2,288%. i think that was within the realm of opportunity. if you had listened when ceo steve holmes came on the show repeatedly wyndham went from being a builder of hotels to a terrific asset light manager of hotels and time shares with that new business model allowing its profits to soar. the fifth best performer, united reynolds, that was a tougher one to spot. leverage buyout that didn't get done because of financing issues caused by the great recession. the equipment rental business has been a good one. we recommended it for a long time. there's a little too much oil exposure for my tastes so i can't say you would have spotted that 1,822% gain all that easily by watching the show. six, i wear haines brands t-shirts -- >> oh god. >> no! >> tmi. hey, i could show you the other haines -- >> no, no! >> hey, you know, i mean -- i could -- >> no!
word for it. that might not have translated into you buying the stock. 1,733% gain since the bottom in 2009. it's a surprising -- all right. nice tie. kind of makes it is so you can't see the t-shirt. it was a surprisingly good gain by haines. i didn't see it. i put the t-shirt on every morning. and something else too. how can we say the same about number seven, netflix? that's a company we've worshipped since its creation. a worldwide internet tv network that has always been too big for its market cap and we've pushed it endlessly, even baking apple to buy the company when it was cheaper. listen, you would have gotten that 1,682% gain if you watched the show. while it's tough to come in on thingth.
cbs coming in eighth, 1,586% from the haines bottom but this is another hide in plain sight call. as cbs tells you endlessly, it's america's most watched network. you could have heard that and bought the stock for certain. number nine, extra space. one of those classic baby boomer storage space, a company for downsizers. 1,556%. i've been behind number ten, price line, since my late sister-in-law told me it was the cheapest way to ply. how did she know? william shatner, he was ever-letter. 1,549% gain. still good. for everyone who saw captain kirk talk it up. did you know every kiss begins with capital gains? signet jewelers, a monster
qorvo which we sell a lot of, that's number 12. and this chipmaker's claim to fame is its biggest client's success, apple. 1,406% run. next it may be the subject of a proxy fight over its stock's underperformance right now. but if you've flown in one of its airplanes you might have failed a 1,396% gain, united continental holdings. should i buy the stock in the answer has been yes. 14th, l. brands, leslie wexler, a genius, had the brilliance to get out of the pure pile game, go into the unamazonable victoria's secret, bath and body works. my staff was excited because
b-role, regardless. all these are companies that jeff basso can't wreck no matter how hard he tries. 1,333%. finally if you watch "mad money" for more than ten days you would know how much i like the stock of starbucks. recognizing it's your own personal ritual is often shared by others can be one of the keys to successful investing. the stock's 1,279% gain, may have been the easiest of all 15 to come by. sure starbucks has ups and downs but the dips have been buying opportunities, this time no different. many if not all these stocks could have been part of your mad money investment portfolio. it wasn't that hard -- in retrospect. you can put almost all of your money in index funds and i love you and i fully endorse it. but based on how obvious some of these winners seem since the haines bottom, seven years ago,
away something extra to invest in a mad money portfolio of individual stocks. they have the potential to give you the kind of performance index funds can only dream of. you know what, we're going to start the calls with dave in illini. >> caller: hey, dave from chicago. big blackhawk buy yaw to you. >> the blackhawks are good, anything from philadelphia always is bad. >> caller: how about it. i have a question. internet securities software. i got fideri. watching it tank, watching it come back. fireeye or something like tech fire? >> i saw this morning, i thought he had a good story to tell, stock has come down a lot. i'm partial to palo alto networks, marc mclaughlin. i like cyber art. uti told a pretty good story. it's been seven years since the market hit bottom but look how
some of these winners, they could have been had. "mad money" tonight. 3d printing was one of the hottest things on the market. can it still add another dimension to your portfolio? or has it fallen flat? i'm eyeing one of the biggest players in space. then the stock of rango resources is shining brighter than the precious metal it pulls out of the ground. gains? the ceo of tech data. if i were you what i would do is stick with cramer! >> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org. or give us a call. miss something?
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rebounding from $8.69 up to $11.89 as of today. hallelujah >> in the wake of such an epic move should we entertain the idea these 3d precipitating plays have gotten their mojo back? or this is a dead cat bounce and it's fill a troubled industry? if you want to get your head around what the stocks have been doing you need to know how the heck they got there in the first place. that's why tonight i'm going to tell you the story of the rise and fall of 3d systems. the market darling. the one that turned pariah that's been rebounding so dramatically of late. for those who don't remember, you have to understand that for years this whole 3d printing group was totally enfuego. perhaps the hottest speculative part of the market in 2012 and again if 2013. april 2012 "the economist,"
publication, said 3d printing represented the third industrial revolution, edging out the assembly line to become the best way to manufacture virtually everything. while there were other smoking hot stocks, when you talked about this amazing trend the first thing that came to your head was always 3d systems. from the beginning of 2012 through the first days of 2014, the stock soared into the stratosphere. rallying more than 910% to peak at $97. but as the business actually began to decelerate in 2014 the stock went into free fall. by the end of 2015 it had more than round tripped that earlier run, $8 and change. just look at this chart. it went down even as fast as it went up. so what the heck happened here? okay. 3d system had been a publicly traded company in one form or another since 1988. but the stock didn't do much for the first 20 years because 3d
effective. but after trading sideways for decades, 3d systems finally started to roar higher in 2012. some of this has to do with 3d printers at long last becoming cheap enough for companies and even individuals to actually consider buying them. however a lot of the strength in 3d systems came down to a massive acquisition binge. since early 2001 the company's done more than 50 deals. in 2011 and 2012 they bought 16 separate businesses. and that, ladies and gentlemen, should be a red flag. suddenly thanks to all these acquisitions, 3d systems started to generate some magnificent revenue new growth. sales 44% up in 2011, 45% in 2013. wow. however, this takeover binge wasn't just about putting up bigger and bigger numbers. 3d systems wanted to be a consolidator, taking out competitors left and right.
about establishing a beginning to end solution for 3d printing. which is why they snapped up hard war maker, software makers, suppliers in an attempt to bring as much of their ecosystem, the term they use, in-house. none of these deals were big on their own. 3d systems figured they were acquiring some serious intellectual capital from these companies. both in the form of patents and contracts with the smartest employees. basically back in the heyday the thesis was that 3d systems was buying up an unmatched brain trust in the hottest industry on earth. but then 2014 rolled around and suddenly things went wrong very, very fast. at the beginning of the year 3d systems finally made an acquisition that wall street didn't like. with the purchase of gentle giant studios. a maker of 3d modeling for the entertainment and toy industry. rather than trying to become
another technology play, they literally bought toys. no wonder the stock plunged nearly 25% in the month following the gentle giant deal announcement. gentle giant. then in early february 2014, 3d systems hit us with another bombshell. the company preannouncing earnings that were well below wall street's expectations. and their own guidance, whoo. even worse at a time when investors were hoping the company would start focusing on maybe profitability, then-ceo avi said, we're willing to tolerate substantial earnings reduction during this period to substantially accelerate our growth rate and market share." this was a tad disturbing. because even though 3d systems had been spending for years, at least the company's margins had been steadily improving. then this ceo comes out and says he doesn't care too much about profits? he's okay with lower margins? hence why 3d systems fell 15% the day of that preannouncement, taking the rest of the industry
turned out this preannouncement was only the first of many disappointing numbers from 3d systems. it was finished. to make matters worse even as the company spent to boost its growth the revenue growth was slowing dramatically. down to 4% in the first three quarters of 2015. this was growth stock. nobody wants to pay up for a company with declining profitability and decelerating sales growth. hence the relentless decline in the stock. however, 3d systems kept making more and more acquisitions until october of last year when the company finally gave up on what was clearly a losing strategy after its stock had been pounded into the dust. at the same time 3d systems supported its first-ever quarter over quarter year of revenue declines. and after that lackluster performance, ceo avi submitted his resignation. since then the company's former chief legal officer's been serving as ceo. that's the rise and fall of 3d systems. what about this incredible rebound, the stock we've seen in
does that indicate all the problems are fixed and this whole group is about to become red hot again? let's understand the reasons for this rally. first of all, 3d systems preannounced fourth quarter revenue numbers, actually much better than wall street expected. even though they represented a decline from the year before. last week the company's main competitor stratisus reported a better than expected quarter, sending the 3d printing cohort roaring higher including 3d systems. what's the verdict? despite the stock's strength of late i think there are way too many question marks surrounding this to endorse it. 3d systems only has that interim ceo. they've experienced two straight quarters of shrinking sales. couple of weeks ago the company announced it would delay the filing of its annual report for 2015 and thus its fourth quarter results. this isn't necessarily a negative. it's a head scratcher. we'll learn the real numbers soon. however, given the stock trades
and considering a long history of disappointment, call me not intrigue the. here's the bottom line. i think the entire 3d printing sector is a wild card. this was a bubble that popped. while some of the players seem to be finding their footing like stratisus, it's hard to feel much confidence in this industry. 3d systems in particular, i think it could be one of the riskiest of the bunch. if you even any, it's giving you great opportunity to ring the register and move on. remember, just because a company's got an exciting product doesn't necessarily make it stock investable. rangold resources faced its fifth downgrade earlier this week. has the stock lost its luster? if you're looking to get a real pulse of the overall health tech market, forget this. there are a too companies like tech data. a money manager you've been hearing about who says the rebound is over.
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capital outflows. you might read this as a story about china. no interest. to me there's a takeaway. it's a bigger takeaway. how to make money with this piece and the piece says to me, buy gold, buy gold, buy gold! why? because i think a lot of the money that's fleeing china's going into gold. if you're a chinese investor worried about a slowing economy, coupled with a currency that keeps getting key valued, you want to hide your assets in cash that retains value in the face of chaos. hence the run on the precious metal in the last three months. you should always have some gold exposure, basically as insurance for the rest of your portfolio against inflation or global economic weakness or just pure chaos. and with the shiny stuff currently roaring higher, i think it's word stressing if you
favor putting your money directly into bullion. if you don't want to pay to keep an actual physical commodity i like the gld, the etf that tracks prices. however, if you're willing to take more risk in order to chase greater rewards, there's only one, one particular gold miner with a stock that's been behaving so fabulously of late that i absolutely believe it does deserve to be bought. as long as you're willing to take a little pain -- >> the house of pain! >> if things go wrong. i'm talking about -- ta-da! rand gold resources, the best gold miner in existence with some of the lowest finding cost in the industry. rand gold has terrific costs across western and subsaharan africa. it's the action in the stock as much as the fundamentals of the underlying company that's making
rand gold just won't quit. in just the past few months this stock has paid not one, not two, not three, not four, but five straight down grades. yet it continues to march higher. normally when a company gets hit with a downgrade you expect the stock to get bruised. five downgrades that stock should be in the hospital suffering temporary paralysis that prevents it from walking let alone running. you expect a sign on the door that says do not resuscitate. rand gold refuses to roll over and play dead or be dead for that matter. the first downgrade, it came october 26th. rand gold was trading a $71. hsbc took the stock from buy to hold. initially dinged 3.3% the following day, since that downgrade rand gold has run up 30%. february 8th it was trading at $78. deutsche bank downgraded buy to hold.
research. february 24th, downgraded from outperform to sector perform, stock barely budged. march 1, a buy to neutral from bank of america. stock was at 91, briefly sent the stock down 3.8%, a loss it quickly recovered from. two days ago with rand gold back at 91, morgan stanley downgraded from overweight to equal weight. stocks are down two bucks from these levels. to put the 30% since the aftermath of the first downgrade, the price of gold is up 7.6% over the same period. when i see this stock taking punch after punch after punch from the analysts and continuing to go higher, that tells me rand gold is pretty much the only gold growth miner out there. they don't care one whit what wall street thinks. i'm not recommending rand gold for everyone.
metal, or the gld. if you're a risk taker it's clear rand gold has a lot going for it even if there are potential downgrades and downsides to evening an individual gold stock. let's talk about those who understand what i could be concerned about. for example, most recent downgrades have pointed out the romp in landgold stock has outpaced the recent rally in gold prices and that's true. morgan stanley says you can't really justify the current share price unless you believe the precious metal's headed to a record price of $1,880 and that does seem kind of crazy. some of the analysts who downgraded worry the strength in gold prices won't last. others cite the company is up against tough comparisons against last year when it delivered strong production growth along with juicy cost cuts. the fact that the stock trades at just over 28 times earnings is unjustifiable.
register. so far these negative arguments haven't been able to make a dent in rand gold's share price for more than a day. how come the stock has been able to rally in spite of all this negativity? analyst downgrades. some of rand gold's strength has to do with the strength of gold itself which is benefiting from the dovish words and behavior of central bankers all over the world, including bill dudley and james bullard. back away from the idea that it's urgent that we raise rates. lower rates go, the better gold does. it matters that interest rates in the eurozone and japan have gone negative are when that happens it makes more sense to keep your money in a hard asset like gold than in cash. meanwhile, we're seeing some major economies like china. and money is fleeing those countries as we said at the top for safe havens. hence the article on the front
if you're a wealthy person living in an emerging market gold probably looks mighty attractive versus anything dominating your home currency. since gold is mostly traded in dallas dollars until reversal in the greenback is good news for the precious metal. it's not all gold prices. a lot of this run has to do with positives at the company itself. rand gold has a terrific track record of growing its production which is expected to increase by an additional 16% by 2017. plus they've got a pristine balance sheet and the company has some of the lowest all-in sustaining costs in the business. because ceo dr. mark bristow only operates in places where he knows he can find gold and lots of it. cheaply. bristow has run the company since 1995, widely regarded as one of the smartest guys in the industry. he knows to get superior assets you have to take ricks and be willing to operate in some areas where others won't go. >> you don't understand africa. it's not for sissies but it's not as risky as you say. >> don't you love that? this guy's kind of the colonel
without the mental health issues. now that rand gold's new mine in the democratic republic of congo is up and running the company's cautioned to climb even further while volumes keep increasing. compare that to the north american miners going the other direction. if you're going to take the rick of owning a gold miner instead of the actual commodity, and it is a risk, rand gold is the only one i will recommend, the only way to go. it is head and shoulders of a above its competitors. bottom line, everyone should have some gold exposure. if you feel comfortable with the higher-risk approach of owning a gold miner, rand gold is the way to goo. the stock's been hit with a series of downgrades and it won't quit, which tells me the big-institution money managers who drive stock prices are still backing up the truck to buy this one and there's no sign they're going to stop that any time soon. paul in colorado. paul! >> caller: hi, jim.
we actually fished together in estes park in the late '80s and i've been following you since then. >> you're quite welcome. >> caller: conoco philips. i've been accumulating it on its way down. and i still like it under $35 a share. what are your thoughts? >> all right, under $35 it's okay. i didn't like the ones that cut their dividend. the reason why i've been sticking by chevron and exxon is they are the two that preserved their dividend and i think that's terrific. my trust owns occidental. added to that stock in the decline yesterday. that one too seems committed to keeping the dividend. jessica in kentucky. jessica? >> caller: hi, cramer, boo-yah from northern kentucky. >> oh my god, one of my favorite areas. what's up? >> i love you. i've been watching you for years. my question is about i heard you the other morning on cnbc, i
>> the other show, yeah, yeah. >> caller: groupon, you mentioned it may not be too late to get in. too early was your word. i was wondering what you thought. >> yeah, they got that new investor ali bab wa. a pastiche, not a mosaic of businesses, if they unlock it would be worth something. i used to joke david faber. zinga and groupon, it's always a good one to buy. i think it's kind of attractive. i would take a spec position, only a spec position, in groupon. you need gold in your portfolio. if you're comfortable with the risk of owning a miner go with the gold, gld, rand gold. is it good news for the overall sector or just for the stock? i'm talking to the ceo of tech data. a star money manager said this market rebound is done. did you believe him? i'm giving my take. celebrating the anniversary of the seven-year bull market
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eliminates mineral build-up effortlessly. so why choose anything other than lysol? if you want to take the pulse of the technology sector, few companies can give you a better read than tech data. tecd. which is one of the biggest wholesale distributors of information technology products on earth. tech data helps huge companies
hp, actually get their products to market via a network of logistic centers. more cheaply than they can do i like to talk about these tech wholesalers as arms dealers. tech data's ceo has taken that metaphor one step further saying that they pride themselves on being the switzerland of the i.t. market. it represents all of the warring faction in the industry. it's good news for the whole cohort when tech data has an incredibly strong quarter, a 20 cent earnings beat off a $2.09 basis, higher than expected revenues, increased by 2% or 11%, they have a lot of business overseas. management gave robust guidance for the next quarter. no wonder the stock soared. the latest results helping push take data up more than 15% year to date. what a winner. we've got to dig deeper. talk to the ceo of tech data, hear about the quarter and his company's prospects, welcome to "mad money." >> thanks for having us back. >> how in the heck can you have
many companies are morning the world growth is slowing and tech i.t. is just okay? >> tech has ability to find hot segment in the geographies we cover. new products, new customers, and we can deemphasize products that aren't performing so well. we do that on the fly. it's one of the strengths of the company, our ability to pivot to those opportunities. >> in the raymond james conference, the apple environment, we didn't sell the apple tv or the apple watch before you got them this year. are those just businesses that you lucked into? or does apple say, it's cheaper to let tech data handle it than to do it ourselves? >> we had one of the least expensive routes to market you can find in the tech spit. the vendors like apples, hp's, ciscos, only pay us when we sell. we're a variable cost route to market. when they come out with a product they want to get to the market, they think distributors like tech data first. back in the day of the white
distributors picked up the low-hanging fruit. >> that's what i was going to -- the beginning of my career. >> i think the paradigm has switched. now vendors think distribution and companies like cisco and hp, 70% to 80% of their revenues go through the channel. >> i thought it was interesting you used the dell example, it's to have a sales force that may at times be idle. >> michael bell said distributors were the devil. >> i couldn't believe tech data is the way it goes now. >> now dell is putting billions of dollars into distributors because we're a more efficient route to market. that's the bottom line. and the industry leaders understand that and respect what we can do from that perspective. >> you talk about going into the hottest area. this one was amazing to me. networking and securities strong in america. that was fine. but notebooks stronger in europe. did you pivot and were ready with the notebook? >> the notebook demand really is you have to look longer.
lots of people bought tablets. >> right. >> thought that they would be the solution. tablets are great to deliver netflix movies or read a kindle book or do e-mail. when you get to real computing, you need the power of a computer. >> yes, you do. people thought the tablet -- you're right. >> i think that's the rebirth of the pc and in particular the laptop. and then on top of that our vendor partners, companies like hp, dell, have innovated. microsoft. we're the world easiest leading company selling surface in the world. >> how's that going? i think surface is selling well and the stocks ar real buy. >> it's a proof of concept from microsoft's point of view, that you can make an all in one windows with a keyboard, light to carry, very powerful. and then the dells and hps have followed suit with their own versions of product. they've redefined the category and it's partly why we're being
>> when i was reading through all the incredible -- you guys are a very transparent company. i was thinking, how come mario draghi is trying to get europe pumped up when in your business, europe's extraordinarily strong. >> this is another one you've got to turn back the clock. in the last ten years we've bought 20 companies in europe. >> good point. >> we have rolled up the distribution space in europe. then we deployed a world-class s.a.p. system that makes our people the most productive in the industry. and the vendors and the customers recognize that and we've been able to find those hot pockets and execute very efficiently in europe. >> i thought it was interesting. you don't care that ingraham's being bought by the chinese. >> we've competed with ingraham for 25 years. we competed with them when they were private, when they were public, and now we'll compete with them when they're chinese-owned. it's way too early to understand the ramifications of that change. again, our strength is our ability to pivot, to -- the
marketplace. we thrive on disruptions. if this represents a disruption in the market, we'll do very well. >> what is the most disruptive product in your chain right now, the one that you see coming that i haven't seen yet? >> that's a really good question. >> come on, come on. >> i think the connected home is where the real opportunity is. >> geez. the honeywell? >> yeah. nest thermostats and monitoring system, diy monitoring systems. little-known fact, tech data is one of the largest sellers of big-screen tvs in the world. not because we want to sell big-screen tvs but by want to sell wi-fi connected so those tvs can access the cloud and get things like netflix brought into the home. it changes the dynamics of the home and computing and life and learning. >> you have the hottest internet of things portfolio too. ceo of tech data corporation. tecd. this is the hottest stock right
big-screen tv? i'm going to tell the wife we have to have one. enough of these little things. "mad money's" back after the break. check this out, bro. what's that, broheim? i switched to geico and got more. more savings on car insurance? yeah bro-fessor, and more. like renters insurance. more ways to save. nice, bro-tato chip. that's not all, bro-tein shake. geico has motorcycle and rv insurance, too. oh, that's a lot more. oh yeah, i'm all about geico. expect great savings and a whole lot more. me pain here. but now, i step on this machine pwhich matches my dr. scholl's now i get immediate relief from my foot pain. my lower back pain.
but i'll plus it. joe in new jersey. >> caller: jim, ati. recommending right now is new corps. company like alcoa, it just got hit. dave in maryland. >> caller: jim, this is dave. my stock is apache group -- >> they need to raise capital. i'm only recommending occidental, exxon, chevron and slumbers in that group. let's go to linda in maryland. >> caller: buy, sell or hold, two harbor investments. >> you cut me to the quick, that is such a hard one. i see that 13% yield and all i can say is red flag. you shouldn't be able to earn that much. let's go to rusty in new jersey. >> caller: how you doing, my stock is cheesecake factory. >> the mall is so crowded who would like there? i like cheesecake factory, i think that restaurant segment is
one more, john in tennessee. >> caller: hey, jim. john from tennessee. what about frontier communications? >> i never like to reach -- companies like verizon give you a better one. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of "the lightning round." >> "lightning round" sponsored by td ameritrade. geico motorcycle, great rates for great rides. man (sternly): where do you think you're going? mr. mucus: to work, with you. it's taco tuesday. man: you're not coming.
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proposition? i ask because yesterday in a widely quoted interview, very smart money manager jeffrey gundlach told a sobering tale of an s&p 500 that he says has only a 2% upside, and 20% downside. he described the recent runup in stocks as simply a small rally within a very large bear market. i know gundlach's double line total run bond fund has beaten 99% of all its peers according to bloomberg data. he does tend to paint stocks with too broad a brush. while it's true that many stocks have a lot of downside i'm ensea yus of those who just made 30% to 50% gains in the energy space thanks to the rebound in oil, gains i'm pretty sure eluded gundlach's grasp. we've been in a roving bear market crushing group after group after group for almost two
so many stocks are so far off their highs this small bounce off the bottom, come on, it isn't that all that impressive. i agree with gundlach when he says there will be real issues with indebted oil companies and the banks if the price of crude doesn't continue to go higher. however, each time oil has spiked like it did today it seems like another handful of oil companies come in and offer stock that's instantly gobbled up. at the same time many of the companies out there sell oil futures to bring in extra income. when you consider the huge capital programs that have been canceled worldwide, hundreds of billions of them. if anything those companies that can sell enough stock to last until 2017 when i expect oil will at last go higher could avoid bankruptcy altogether. what will happen if gundlach is right that there's still too much oil slashing around, even as the gasoline inventory drawdown announced today showed a nice pickup in demand that drove the whole oil complex
i would postulate we'll simply get a return to the rolling bear market in banks and oils along with a surge back into the consumer staples, perhaps another run at the restaurants and the retailers. in other words, the money isn't leaving the stock market, it just keeps rotating amoney different sectors. maybe the next roving bear will trigger a bull market in health care because bernie sanders will fade after his michigan win, perhaps his high point, and clinton can tackle a little more favorably toward the drug companies. maybe we get a merger. sooner or later the big president harma firms are going to make moves. i don't want you to lose sight that a guy like gundlach says addressing you, the small investor. he's trying to make the point the market might be a little more dangerous than you think. if that's really the case, then only more people will buy the stocks of clorox and walmart and
few will buy the stretched ocean plays like stretched out diamond. running $56 billion the way gundlach is you don't have time for niceties, individual stocks. he's making much broader, more sweeping pronouncements that might not have the value ascribed to them. he's a bond guy. gundlach could be right about some stocks for certain. as we've seen time and time again, when someone's right about a certain group that doesn't necessarily mean he's right about other sectors within the broader s&p 500. as i like to put it, even if gundlach says the overall market tools high, there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to find it just for you, even if it's a little harder than usual because of the prevailing gloom, the unremitting reality of slower growth, and a federal reserve that is no longer your friend.
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>> i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to find it just for you here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i will see you tomorrow! it's thursday, march 10th. coming up on "early today." breaking over night, five dead and at least two gunman at large. police are scrambling and asking the public for help. historic rain and flooding continues to wreak havoc while a new storm is brewing out west. democrats making big promises on immigration. and an isis opator erator tells of the chemical weapons plans.