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tv   The News Hour With Jim Lehrer  PBS  July 2, 2009 7:00pm-8:00pm EDT

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captioning sponsored macneil/lehr productions >> lehrergood evening, i'm jim lehrer. on the newshour this thuray, the lead sty is the jump in bless numbers. then, we have theother news of the day, t latest on the big u.s. offensive against the taliban in afghantan. a paul soln "making sense" ake on the real unemploymen figures. an update othe power struggle in honduras. and a margaret warner reporon life and deathn russia. majofunding for the newshour
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with jim lehrer is pvided by: >the world is changing, and how we use energy toy cannot be how we use it tomorrow. there is none solution. it's nosimply more oil, more renewables or being mor efficient. it's all of it. our way of life depends developing all fms of energy, and to use less of it. it's ti to put our differences aside. will you be part the solution? chevron, human eergy. inte supporting mathnd science educatn for tomorrow's novators. the atltic philanthropies. a with the ongoing support of these institutionand foundations. and.. this program was made possie by the corporion for public oadcasting. d by contributions to your p station from viers like you.
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tha you. >> lehrer: u.s. employs cut far more bs than expected last month. that rd came from the labor department today. it was a freshlow to hopes for early recovery. the report sd 467,000 jobs we eliminated in june. that was 100,0 more than most conomists predicted. the unemoyment rate rose a tenth of a point to 9.5%,he highest in 26 ars. in response, president obama said he w "disappointed" and "deeply concerned". he spoke toy with the associed press. >> we have successfully stabilized the financial markets. and that's important because that s a huge drag that helped precipitate the crisis. 've started to see some stabilization o housing.
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butwhat we'retilleeing itoo many jobs lost. too many families whore worrd about wheer they're gog t be next >> lehrer: the jobs report t off a day-longelling binge on all street. indes fell more than 2%. the dow jones industrial arage lost 223 pois to close at 820. the nasdaqas down 49 points to close at 1796. for the short holidayeek, the dow lostearly 2%. the nasdaq fell more han 2%. and oilrices hit their lowest levels in a mont on the employmt news. oil closed below $67 a barre in new york tradg. jeffrey brown h more, now, of oulead story coverage. >> brown: and our clos look at today's employment figures. and what they say abouthe prospects f economic recovery comes from david onhardt, economicsolumnist for "the new york times." welcome back. >> thank you.
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>the number of jobs lost every month had been ading downward. >> w. >> is it suprise that it went ba up. >> it's a moderate surprise and the size of the increase is what's particularly disturbg. i pen weadfalleno 2,000 jobs lost in may which is still a d testimonyut was so far down fm 750 or -- so tha were lost in january. above all the way up to 470,000 is quite woisome. nd it's just a sign of w long this downrn is likely to last. >> before we go ere, what else do we so in tms of sectors, par of the economy? >> we see unbelievable continued loes in nstruction. i mns that's what the rsting of the housing bubble is. so we've nowost since the beginning of 2007 we've lost almost 20% o jobs in construction. which is a stunning nmber. we seeontinued heavy losses in manufactung. we s blosds, really, pretty much across-the-boa eept for education a heah. and we seen sa some losses in fderal govnment
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employment last mont which y just be a blip related to the sense of hiring but iis still people who have lost their js. >> demraphics, i mean a lot has been taked about on geer, for one thing. gender, ageet cetera. what do you s? last month the recession took another really hard whack on mn in the labor force. thenemployment rate for m is now 10%. it's nearl doubl inust aear. the unemploymentrate for women is still below 8%. so b but not as bad. or the early mons of this year,the first half of this year now we've se this become a little bit more of an equal opportuty recession sit has still hit less educated workers and minorities much more than it's hit more eduted workers or whies. but its -- it'spread its in a little bit more to college graduates, for example, over the course of the las sixonths. >> and wages. >> wages are this really funny picre. because a stnge way there m be the only silver lining w have inhe
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report. so let's start wit the bad nes. the bad news is that hourly was are stuck. they really aret rising at all. and the work week is shrinking. and so that means e weekly paycheck tt people are taking ho is shrinking a little bit. but over the course of the last year because we had so increases earlr on, the weekly paychecis still about 1%. d here's where the silver lining com in. ices are actually down 1% over the last yea d so amazingly eugh in the middle of this terrible recession, e worse in a generation, the buy pog are of the tycal worker who still has hi or her job -- >>s that eat key phrase of course. >> that is the key phrase but i's important to member that that is the majority, byar the majority. the buy pog we a of the typical workerho still has his orer job has increased. and to this point the recession, a year and aalf into a recsion that is highly unusual. >> all right, let's explore some of the bigger picture th you started to raise. always talk about unemoyment as a lagging indicato, right? so thexpectaon is that a
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recovery could be under way ut the number, the joble number would stilbe going up. >> that's right. the odds that a recovery is der way yet are extremely extremely small. with job losses of this size, the odds that t economy is gring are something aroaching zero. i mean this ws a larger job lo relative to the size of th economy than any month the 19, '91 or 01 recession. so this is still a terrible moth. but that's right. we could get e economy growing later this yea and we cou still haveob losses. and that's because emoyers don't really tart toamp up and hire lots new workers until there very condent thanot only is the eonomy growing, but 's growing a pretty rapid pace. that why this -- we're not -- we're not anywhere clo to this turning in the ecomy feeling good. >> toy just made that as clear as ever. >> that's right. i mean you could have some -- before today you could have som hope. >> and peop did. iean there has been lot of talk abt maybe things have started to turn. >> absoluly. and it s -- and it was not unreasonable, we stepped bacfrom the press i buiness but this makes it
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clear that we step ba from the precipice b we're a long, longwayrom being in a good place >>ow it also raised a lot ofissues, put them bk on the table if theyver went ay, you wrote a column yesterday, you raised some of the questions. onewas about the stimulus. yeah. >> how much has it accomplished. ist possible thate need to look at anoer one. >> the first things that's important to say i that theres no o out there ho knows how much of a differen the stimulus is makg. it is literal an unanswerable queson. so we have to ma estimates. and we can't rer a enario in which we have the past sixonth was a stimulus package. it seems to have bn making a all difference. we can see that in consumer spending. it seems that the x cut king a small differenc >> and at the state level i should say because our viewers knowesterday i lked to an expert here about the state budg. >> rigt. >> who said th it has been making some difference, clearly, and helpgtates tide ovea bit. >> ablutely, a if you look at the unemplment numbers were n see much inclines in state employment it another indication that the imulus package is
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makinsomething of a difference. >> but there is no way the stmulus package can completely eras the efcts of arecession of this depth. this stimulus package wasn't perfectly desned. ihink it was pretty good. but it waby no means perfect. and it may not have been big eugh. and that rises the question of whether wre going to need another one downhe line. and are you starting to ear that question now from economists, from politicns? >> you are starting to ar it a ltle bit. david axelro, the top obama advisor talked over the ekend about the fact that it's still too early to think about ether we need new one. and that seems righ to me economically as well. we're only now inmay and june really getting the big rp-up in stimulus ending. and sof we g to september or october when we've really had fur or fi, six months of really trong stimulus snding, andhings still look terrible, i ink that's the point at which you wan to talk about the possibility of a second stimulus. >> y mentioned axeod and to puit inolitical terms, another thing you wrote
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about i this question of optimism and pessimistic, as a political question, what is the right tng to be saying, to be tellin people at this point, oh, thi is again a qution. >> it is. look, the ministration has a hard jobere because on the one hand it needs to be realistic. and on the other hand it es want to do some of the fdr bucking up the ation. i thik they got this a little bit ong, though. ty came in and i think they were clearly tw optimist. they sort o believed e conseus wallstreet economic forecasts which at this point think we know n to put o much faith . an as a result, they said that unployment now would only be at around 8%. and instead it is at nine and a half percent. and thatreates polital headaes for them and it lso doesn't really ppropriately prepare people for jus howlong and how tough a nothing we're going to ha. >> nd briefly that slog includes thejobs numr probably getting to 10%. >> i think at this poi it would be extremly unusual if th unemployment rate didn't get abov 10%. and so we're en looking at
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what may well be the wst recession sincehe great depression. we are not there y, the early '80s weretill worse but we, unfortunatel, seem to be on our way. >> all right, davi leonhdt from the new yo sometimes, tanks against. >> thank you. >>ehrer: paul solman will have more on the unemplment numbers latein the program tonight. >> lehrer: in oth news today, thetate of california began issuing an initi batch of iou's for morehan $50 million n bills. thas after governor schwarzeneer and lawmakers failed to agree on howo close a budgedeficit. it's projecd at more than $26 billion. state offices will also haveo close tee days a month to conserve cash. ice president biden made an unannounced trip iraq today. he arrived in baghdad foa three-day vit, and a greeting by iraqi aders and u.s.
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it came two days after iri troops took ctrol of the coury's major cities. bid is expected to urge the iraqis to make me progress on ronciling their political differences. in france, inveigators issued thir first report on the air france passenger jethat crashed off braz last month. all 8 people were killed. we have a rept from robert moore of indepeent television ne. >> one month on and the mystery not only endures, in many ways it epens. investigators revealed day the ple did not explode in th air. it appea it was tact duing the whole of its terrifying dissent io the -- descent into the ocean. hundrs of piece of debris have been rcovered. and australias pformedn 51 bodie at today's news conferce an investigator outlined some of the few facts he could be certain of. >> theircraft wasot
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estroyed in flight. it appears have struck the surface of the water in ine of flight n atraight li, in other words, w a ry high vercal aeleration. >>ne key fold may ha been e failing sed nsors. they are now being upgraded across the a330 fleet. the pito tubes are loced on the exterioof the fusage and used to measu the air speed of thelane. although heated to prevent them freezing over, tey c become blocked nder some nditions. that c leave a pilot lacking crical information, flown t slow theplane can stall. too fast, it can bre up. one air frce pilot said the new modifitions ma the pla safe. >> now we have these brand-new a speedsensors. and the aircraft is more safe than ever >> you wld put your own family onne without hesitation. >> no hesitation, ily it myself maybe on a week around the rld. i el safe with that, yes, i'm okaywith that. >> the absolute frustration
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for investigators is that the explanation lies within those black box da recorders. but they are at a depth o 6,000 ters andheir acons are expected to fade within days. iteans the story of air rance 447 could become one of the world's eatest aviation mysters. >> lehrer: the investigars did say today ey found no trace of fire or explosions on the wreckage they've rovered. north kea has test-fired four more short range missile the south koan defense minist reported the launches. it said the missiles re anti- ship weans. at least two were firedrom a base nearhe city of wonsan, on north korea's east coas the north koreanhave also warnethey may test fire a long-nge missile, possibly ward hawaii, over the fourth of july weekend. >> lehr: and still to come on the newshr tonight: the real
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jobless numbe; the coup, or t, in honduras; and the unhealthy russians. that follows the latestn the u.s. offsive against the liban in afghanistan. we begin with a rept from james mat of independent levision news. >> reporter: they promed desive action to finally break the taliban in southern afghastan, and this is what i looks like, theiggest airborne eration since vietnam. thousands of u.s. mares, by air and by land, huge arred convoys heang straight for the taliban stroholds in the hemand river valley. we squeeze the whole river vley at the same time. it is really their ability to reinfoe the whole area because eve area is under preure at theame time. >> reporter: the brish have fought re these last four years, they have won importa vicries, but have never had the numbers to do morehan maintain a esence. the arril of this huge u.s. force should change all tt.
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it has been nam operation strike of the sword and is the biggest american oration since the tack on fallujah in iraq in 2004. it beg at 1:00 am, helicopters inserng troops into the villages of nawa and garir in the lowerelmand valley. by dawn 4,000 marineand 650 afghan oops were in the field. >> the aim of the air asault was to put mari recruitts -- foes out behind enemy lines. we dropped into a few places that nobody d been. >> repoer: if the taliban try to flee, rather than sta and fight, pakisn is reported to deploying forces. it's to capture insurgents fleeing over the borr. we had watchedhe buildup last week as the marineseadied for today's assat, the sheer numbers of mored vehicles poting to the u.s. strategy of overwhelmingorce. the taliban haveittle defence gainst this sort of firepowe
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but it will be danrous. the talib will fight, and wherthey choose not to they will not go aw but fade back in the civilian population. >> lehrer: one u.s. marine as killed in the rst full day of e operation in helmand province, and several oers were wounde separately, the u. military announced an arican soldier w missing in the east. he was apparently a cative of the talan. now, judy woodruff h more on the u.smarine offensive in the south. he spoke earlier this evenin with jiv chandrasekaran of the "washington post." he's embedd with the u.s. rines at camp leatherneck, i helmand provinc rajiv thank you for talking with us. you were with the marin as they launched thi how is thfirst day gone? >> well the first day has gone better tn themarines had expecd. me marine its have enged inire fights with the taliban insurgents. some of them had hit roadside bombs but overall
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with 4,0 maris pticipating in this operation, which one of the largest in theistory of the u.s.ilitary engament in afghanistan, thin have gone surprisingly well, commanders here say. marine units ve been out and about in afghillages in the helmand rir lley walking foot patrol talking to communit members, passing out handbills, talkingo people with the helpof interpreters, trying to convin th that ey're here to stay. a thathey're here for the protection of t people. what they are trying to d is essenally enge in a form of unterinsurgency rategy by trying t prote the civilian populationnstead of focusin in on kick down doors and hunting dow taliban insurgents. they fige if they can win over the people and start building some more effective local government and serity institutions, then the talib will be marginalized and tt will be aetter use of their
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resources th simply focusg in on offenseive operations against e inrgents. >> woodruff: whyid they pickhis part of afghanistan to bring such large force to bear? >> well, the violence here has just been o the charts, judy. lmand province is one the most dangeus and votile parts of fghanistan. it's also a placehere drug lords connected with the taliban, grow huge amots of opium-pducing poies. poppies gro in lmand province produces more than half of the world's opium supply. and so this i a partof the country where u.s. commanders feel there needs to more resources, more military attention. is is a part ofhe country where e unit states had essentially rmed out the security responsibities to mens of nato.
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d -- the britsh simply hen't had enough troops here to restore order an conductthe necessary operations. so that's why the 10,000 rines that haverrived re, andhat's why over the courseof the next several months tre will be an almost similar nber of u.s. army soldiers going into other parts of souern afghastan. >> woodruff: raji why do they think this is the best tatic when the taliban are known for their ability to rink back into the opulation and wait things out? this tactic is recognizes hat taliban fighters will sort of mel back into the population. so tey're saying look, we're to the going to focus on trying to just fight these ys. we're going to try toocus in on usg our resources to try to improve the governmenhere, trying to create more effecti afghan secury forces and effectively try to marginize the taliban. the belief here among u.s. ficials is th most of
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the rank and filealiban fighters are simy doing it forase economic reasons becse they get 5 or $10 a d to lay roaide bombs or to participate in ambushes. and they fire if they can create a ecomic opportunities for tse people f they can create a mor effective government adnistration that might sort of represt the interes ofeople in the towns and villages across this area, they caneel away that support from the taiban. and then essentially white the taliban down to a smaller grou of hard-co figers. and then th will focus mitary resources on either trying to apehend or ll those pele. >> meanwhile in anoer part offghanistan in th east, a u.s. soldier has been captured, we'v learned. what informaon do you have about that? >> well, what are hearing ithat the soldier wandered off his base in easter afghanista
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the precise motives aren't ear but h left on his own. the basic securi ptocols dictate that soldrs are never to leave their bases by themsees. and what we'reearing is that thissoldier was kidnapped alo with sme afghan security forces. his prise location at this point is unknowns is his coition. u.s. military ofcials here re being fairly tight-lipped on the specificsf this ce. while theyry etermine this soler's condition and whe batts. >> rajiv chandrekarenn, joing us fromcamp atherneck in afghanistan, ank you very much. >> a pleasure to talk to you tonight, judy. >> lehrer: next tonight, a pl solman report the true magnitude of unemploymenin the u.s. we hrd earlier about the traditional, familiar jobls numbers. but there ar other numbers suggesting the problem may
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even worse. it'part of paul's on-going series on "making sen of financial ns." >> solman: in chicagoebony len, on her way to a job interview on the southide of town. a tough trek in an econoy with official unemploymentt 9.5%. escially since, as this story will show, many think thereal number is aot higher than tt. >> solman: howany interviews like this do you get say ia month? >> one, and i need to pr for that one if get that one. >> solman: downwn, job expert jo challenger says the numbs are far worse an you hear. >> the unremployment rate, which includes the people who are in part-time jobs but uld prefer a full-time job, a those people who weren'tounted as umployed but they've been out ofork and been looking in the last year, but t in the last mon pushes the rate way
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up. >> solmanhere are the new mbers, from the labor department's monthly sury of 60,000 houselds. as of june thefficial number is wh the government reports as 3": 14.7 million unemployed as of jun that's 9.5%. u-4 adds discourad workers, who'vstopped looking: that would make unemployment0%. u-5? marginally attacd workers who say they'd take a job, bu haven't looked in month: the numberould then be up to 10.8%. the mt inclusive number, u-6, adds part-tims looking for fu-time work: bringing the total to 16.5%. ebony len hasn't worked at all in over o years. wonder margo strotter's fir impression matte. >> tell me a little bit abt yourself. >> i'm a diligt person, very putual. i have good people skis.
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>> soln: it's tough enough for women in this jobless rket. with construction and manufacturing shard hit, thoughit's tougher still for men. >> my na is john leone. i'm lean manufacturing engineer. ve been looking for work sin september of 200 >> my name is john kessberg. i was laid offn october of 200 i'm a senior engineer in manufacturing. >>solman: a networking group for out-of-work executis in bolingbrook, chicago suburb. >> i'm chrisemaio. i've beeout of work since december of 2008 and im senior financi executive. >> my name is john frech i'm a senior audit executiv from the bankinindustry. i've been itransition since january of this year. >> myname is bharath tolappa. i'm an i.t. infrastrucre rofessional and i have been lookingince january of this year. >> my me is barbara tomczak. i'm a human resource lear. i've been inransition since ebruary 2008. >> i'm john lopata. i'an inventor with 38 united states patents.
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i've been out of workince january of 28. >> i'm peter sturvant. i work in avy civil nstruction. i've been loong for a new position f a year. >> solman: ery u category was represented here, includi "discouraged" wkers, if you cou the one mber of the group too discoured to show up and take his seat next toeter sturdivant. >he just seems he's at a dead end. he's beelooking for a long time, he's discourage we had talked abo this especiallat the last meeting whn we felt that it wasn't jus the normaroller-coaster cycle at the botm, but it might have been the beginning of spir. >> solman: anthen you stop looking for worentirely - you're discouraged worker and you' not in the labor force all and you're n part of the unemoyment number? >> that'correct. >> solman: john lopata a john freck, meanwhile,re part of the biest undercounted group: involuntary part-time. >> i worked with the.s. census formarch until may and i typically averaged about0-35
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hos a week in that period of time. >>olman: were you looking for full-time work athat point? i was still looking for ful time work. >> solman: and what abo you, john? >> was able to secure an adjunct teaching profesr opportunity. i'm averaging about 15ours a ek with that assignment and oking for full-time work at the same time. >> solman: though they coider themselveunemployed, neither man is in thofficial tally, but only in t rarely mentioned u-6, a category they share with millions of itinent workers d so-called "consultants" ike barra tomczak, who's freelanced sinceosing her job aear and a half ago. >> i'm an iependent contract worker. >>olman: so as much as half this group isn't coidered unemplod," if you include the discouraged guy who failed to show. no wonder they think e uneloyment rate is higher than reported. wh here thinks its higher an 12%? 15%?
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20%? howany people think it's %? and 20% may not be f-fetched, it turns outbecause of two other groups never count as unemployed. one is those on government sability: 7.5 million americans lie 57-year-old bob zawacki, a chicago carpenr. >> i've had arthroscopic surgry in my knee twice, so ie got a lesseng of the spacing between two bones there, and ie got prominentearing loss. and i've had a progressiv proem with my neck, my ceical spine, and i have stenosis or a degenerate disc disease and wheyou've got to deal with that pain throhout the day it arts to affect your mind. you're not a happyamper. >> solman: by a yeaago, zawackis injuries we becoming appare. >> so i was lagging bind a little bi anmy boss mentioned it a coue of times, nothing serious
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t it came to the point where he just camup to me one day and said we've got to l you go. >> solman:hen came the great recession. he's applied r social security disability, roughly equal t retirement benefits, drastic reducti in take home pay. if jobs were outhere now, would you take one instd of vxlying r disability, ev given your nk and all the ret? >> yes, i woulgo for a job. d it might even be contrary whamy doctors advise me to do, which means, you know, i'd b bringing re harm on myself but it's more mone >> solman: ma think the burgning government disabilit proam, paid for by social security,ay be a good thing. without i would unemployment be even higher than it is >> absolutely yes. >> solman: m nash is zawacki's lawyer. hesays the baby boom has been driving the disabity boom and expaing his business.
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>> because disility is driven by age and the rules are essentially that e older you are andhe more that you've had a history of hey work, the re likely it is that you'll become disabled. 10,000 baby boomers rn age 50 everyay. >> lman: in fact, more than two and a hf million people have applied for soal security disility in the past year. many of the 50%ho figure to gett would otherwise be counted as unemployed. and the same goesor folks like thse. >> how o i know i can trust you? >> i say if you give me 10%f your trust i'll do myarnest to earn e other 90%. >> solman: at chago's safer oundation, they lp ex- convicts get jobs, conducng mock interviews tprepare for theeal thing. >> you checked on your application you've bn convicted of crime. can you elorate on that for me? >> yes i can ss bell. i'm glathat you asked.
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>>olman: there are two-and-a- quarter million amicans locked up athe moment. their unempyment rate, were hey out and looking for wor safer psident diane williams. >> i would say it uld be upwards of 80% thatould not be ablto find employment. >> solma and that estimate may soon show up in the numbs. illinois, like so ny states, s a budget deficit that mus be remedied. >> one of the solutns for this unbalanced budget is to relse people with low-vel offences back into the communi. that cld be anywhere from 7,000 to 10,000 people. athe same time that they're talking about reducg the numbers of peoplin prison and sending them homethey're also talking abousignificant cuts in the services th are available to people when th are released froprison. >> i've been locked uover half my li. >> solman: pa stephenson did me for armed robbery. >> you know body wants to hire me because this thgs on my backgrou. u know its terrible but i'm not that person anore. >> just because we have
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backgroundoes not necessarily mean thawe are monsters. >> solman:ichael davis was nvicted of sexual assault. >> we are trying to make a living anwere trying to make a change to be better people nd we just need lp. >> solman: but ev with help from ples like the safer foundaon, the odds aren't good. 7,000-10,000 leased prisoners in illinois uld translate into hundreds thousands nationally, most ofhem presumably aed to the unempyment rolls. and ifhose on disability were also looki for work. well, the 20% employment guess of the network execives starts to sound etty plausible after all. as r ebony allen, well, as it happens, s too is part of the safer foundion program, having been on probation for dru dealing. >> solman:hat'd you like? what'd you like less? >> e fact that she came presentable. i get a lot of fks that come
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in blue jeans d that kind of thing d she communicated very well. she wasn time. the only thing i didn't likei guess, is that get that same paanswer all the time. like i have good people skis, customer serve, and i really ed to see that happen rather than take her wordor it. >> solman: but the end, ebony len didn't get the job. she remains one of americs 14.7 millioofficially unempled as of this month. >> lehrer:n our website, you can find theatchwork nation map,t shows changes in jobless numbers arou the country over the past year. >lehrer: now an update on honduras, a sma central americanation with two pridents. ray suar has that story. >> suez: supporters and
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opponents of the ousted hduran president fanned out in t streets of tegugalpa last night. various mael zelaya's backers isted signs that read "we nt ace in honduras" and "we wan democracy." zela was ousted sunday. head tried to organize a referendum to end the constitutional limion his presidenti term. thatnraged the country's congress and armed fors. the army storm the presidential palace, remod him from office, and sent him costa rica. honduras' new present, roberto michetti has already begun to appoint new cabinet nisters. the country's congress h approved a nightly curfe and 24hour detention rules to keep the peace. on tuesday, micheletti said e old president s not welcome bak. >> ( translated ): he had already violed the constitution and the laws,he cannot returns the president
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of this country, unless a esident from a latin american untry puts him there forcib by arms. >> suarez: condemnation ofhe foed ouster of zelaya has been swift and unrenting: from both the united states and the organization of american ates. the 27 memberstates of the european union have whdrawn their ambaadors. on esday, zelaya received a standing ovatn at united natns as he criticized the new regime. >> ( transated ): dictatorships repress, as has be the case in hondas today. a dictorship has now been established. repression has been estlished in the coury. i ought for e reversal of this system,nd the people fought for the overthrow othe system. but the eli refuses us. >> suarez: some of zela's strongest cking has come from hugo chavez of venezueland other lefti leaders. the united stat, which has had close ties with hondus and its military, has insisted zela is the conitutional ruler of the country and thatilitary action wanot warranted.
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on monday, president oma labeled the reval "not legal." >> it would be a terrie prcedent if we start moving bkwards into the era in which we are seeing mility coups as a mes of political transition. >> suarez: zelaya postpon today's planned returto hondas as representatives from the organizaons of american ates headed there, to negotiate a settlement tat would include re-instati the hondruas' elted president. >> suarez: so, was thhonduran mitary conducting a classic coup or upholding th constitution? get two views on that from roger noriega, a form ambassar to the organization of american states in t bush administrion. he is now aisiting fellow at the american enterprise institu; and christopher satini, senior director of pocy at the americas society, a think tank focused on lan america.
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he's ao editor-in-chief of its magazine, "americ's quarterly." christopherabatini, let's start with you. was manual zelaya remov from ofce in a coup. >> yes,his was a claic coup. e military me to his palac at night, literay kicked him out of be in his pack ammas. put him on plane, se him to coasta rica and roved him from office. having said tha it should be pointed out that this man hasightly been championed as being a victim ofa coup. but he by n mans should be seen as only a victi in the week pceding his removal from office, had, indeed,overriden the congress ipressing for this referendum. head ignored the ruling of the supreme court whic had declared the referendum unonstitutional. anhe had also removed a number of military leaders who had refud to coorate so ere is a lot th preded it. and ths with really seen primarily to be seens really a train wreck of
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stitutional stalemate and conflict. but it ultimately this was a coup that remed him on june 28th. >> suarez: ambassador noriega, at this was a coup reminiscent of the bad old ys in latin america? >> no, i rlly don't. the furthe you get away from honduras, the morand moreit may looklike a coup. your excellent report and chris's cmentary just mentioned that the military remoed zelaya from office. that's not corrt. he was reved, ordered detained itecause of his violationsof the constution by the spreme court of honras. the mitary was carrying out those orders. it never held on to power. it passed that power tothe congress whh followed a constitutional processo replace him this is a tgedy. andt's one, frankly, that's broht about by zelaya own excesses trying to follow hugo chavez'slay book and steal power. and hold on to power for at
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least anothererm which is absolely against the hon du an consttution. -- hduran constitution. its he a process that cou haveeen avoided. laya is moving forward, deliberately defyin explicit orders of t court nd courting this disaster because he felt he cld roll over these othr institions. thas where the real challenge or us today is how do you get t oes, the united states diplomacy to respondore effectively when these strong men run rough shod over the democraticnstitutions in their country. weresponded too little, too late. >> suarez: christophe sabatini,ou heard the ambassador suggesthat this was do strictly by the book with the authization ofhe honduran sueme court? quite frankly f this wre done by the bookhat they would have dones impeach him. ths not a case where he had so striped awayhe powers of the congress and th supreme cot that they were not fee toct and serve as a legitimate voice for the
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opposition. they had opposed i they could have allowed the referendum to go forwa and then done what democraes usually do includinghe united states, ipeach the president forreaking the law. instead,they called on the military which may not have kept power but did p h on plane, did arrestim at gunpoint d got him the ck out of the country. that's a coup. >> suarez: the honran constutional, ambassador is a pretty long document, many time longer than e amerian constitution, in fact. and a you suggest itoes sayhat you can't change the term of a president in this way. but does it also spify how a president shoulde removed from ofce? and wasthis it? >> i don't think this is an ideal situationy any means. i think that zelaya ould note in exil today. he should pbably be in jail. and it wouldave been bter. i think, in my opinion, as a feigner if the hondurans had tied him, impeach him, had a publ discussion of
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his offenses and vote on his removal fm office. in point of fact heas remed from office by vote of 14 to 4 in the coress of honduras. i don't know which honduran law schoolchris sabatini went to, but i didn't. but i think that e hondur supreme cot has something to say about this. >> suarez: t what about mr. sabatini's suggestion that there s a process and the army coming to your housein the middle of the night isn't i >> e supreme court said that the army acted in the appropriate discharge of its funcons, in its duties. i hve anrder, the capture ord here in my pocket. the supreme court said tha this was a legitimate process. no does it lo like a clssic cup? obviously it looks engh like one thatpeople making curseory jgements from 4,000 miles away thi that it is a classic coup. in point of fact, this was a
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legal proces and the honduran really need the support of the intertional community, not the condemnationf the international communit they needed that support. and i knochrisgrees on this point, a weeknd a half ago. and months ago when zelaya was running rough shod over these institutions. but the oas didot respond. the u.s. diplomacy obviously dn't respond effectively enough. a that's where we need to get it right. i would hate ee hondurans sanctioned for doi what they in thr own judgement, and this is a universall held opinion, really, hon dureas amonghe political parties includinganual zelays own party. all 58 -- or all but a hanul of 58 members voted o remove him from office because of his vlations. and so tis reflokts a consensus >> arez: christopher sabatini what about that? that the other instutions
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honduran governmental cires approved of the action and the army has the backing ofhe courts and the coness. >> democrat institutio, given the other separations of power can conduct a co just the same as the president or t military can conduct a up. this was an institutiol coup lead by tsupreme cot, and the congres roger is absolutely right. in that this couldaveeen avoid. is was brewing for the last couple of weeks a unfortunately t oas and even to a certain exte the uned states could have done someing to avert it much ast did, r example, in the case of nicarag a few years back with the anything wag -- nicaraan congre. but that did not occur here. but should not mistake the fact that a decratic institution, wheth it is a president, elected predent or a supreme court or a congress can overstep the bounds of initutionality ich is exactly what appened. simplyack up a predent, sending him out the
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office withou any -- is what the oes has defid and this is internationalaw it is not honduran law s an alteration in t constitutional processand needs, under u.s. -- under oas regulatns and under regional la needs to be condemned as a coup day that. >> suez: the head of the oas is heading down to hon dureas -- honduras. he has given the government three ys to make it right or ese they wil kicthem out of theoas. is there sll several more chapters to play in this confrontaon? > thereare several more chapters it. very quickly, i don't think this is an insoluble proem. first of l there are elections cong up in novembewith two candidates alread. zelayaasn't one of the caidates. and he would have had to step down by january 27th anyway. i think what you are ginning to see slow is a softening ofome of the positions. zelaya has saithat he will not tryfor re-ection. i thinkyou just maybe move
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forwa the date of the elecons a little more quickly to g him out of thoffice. maybe move forward th date. but you get h back in as a symbol, even to democratic nstitutions throughouthe hemisphere that overstepping t boundaries and removing a president wo may he run rough shod over institutions themselves simply not an accepble way to rolve political andven constitutional dferences. >> and ambassador, quick response? >> i do not think that zelaya will be aowed to return to pwer because th is now a questionf hourans defending their territorialntegrity, their sovereity and their digni against hugo chavez's iervention. it's beme thatolarized. >> but you were ambassad to the oas. you understand that institution very wel they arehreatening to kick honduras t. >> well, ihink that the oas should answer for its failures in ecuaor, in bolivia, in nicaragua, in venezuela and in honduras before it makes judgements about wh the hnduran people are doingo save their ownemocratic stitutions.
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>> suarez: christopher sabatini, ambassaorroger noriega, gentlemen, thank you bot >> thank you. >> lehrer: nally tonight, magaret warner continues her week of reports om russia, night, the subject is life a death. >> warner: moscow's parks re filled with children on weekends, ung mothers pushing strollers, toddlers oswings, tow heads running throu the grass. the tragedy for russia , there aren't enough of these you chilen to keep pace with the number ogrownups who are ing. funerals are outpacing birs in most russianities. and an astonishinnumber of the aves hold men who died in th prime of their rking lives. russia's populaon now stands at 1 million, a drop of 12 million people, sayshe u.n., since thcollapse of the soviet union 16 years ago.
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>> e mortality rates are two times higher thanhe birth rate. soyou can call it a crisis by all means. >> rner: kirill danishevsky, chiefpecialist at the private open health institute, ys the implications e immense: if sething isn't done, he predicts, ruia's population could drop as low as 0 million in 20ears. >> a lot of the currendreamsg of russibecoming super power, super economic, a super enomy in the 21stentury might not work ou because simply there will not be engh people to sustain this idea. >> warner: the arage russian man lives to barely 60, 15 ars less th his american counterpart. an 13 years less than russian women cardiovascar disease is rsia's one killer, just as in the u.s. but its three timesore deadly here. the reaso it's clear, is despread overuse and abuse alcohol and tobao.
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offial russia was electrified last week when ainternational am of public health researchers, led by a ruian door, reported that drinking caused me than half of all russn deaths in the post- soviet years of the '90 president dmitri meedev reacted with alarm on esday, saying we drink more thann 1990s. and healled for a stepped-up campaign to turn that arnd. many russians enjoy soal inking, the karma bar in moscow on a turday night looks like any american watering hole. but far too many russns, especially m, end up like ths. pubc health advocate dashevsky said the problem is that both alcohol d tobacco are way o availabland way too chep. and he took us on a tour see that.
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>> 5 rubles, th's about 15 cens. >> warner: o that blue box therethat's 15 cents for a pack of cigarettes. >> yeah. >> warner: at nearby train stion, he scored some homemad vodka from an olwoman. if hadn't know what we were looking for, we wou have missed it what did you get? >> vka. >> ll, it's actually ethanol dissolved with a ttle bit of wate and since she didn't have change, e added a glass the bottle. so its 25 rubles r this bottle. >> warn: so that was like 80 cents. >> yh. yeah, it's 8cents. that's what gets a male ofn average size etty drunk. >> warner: in addition tcheap prices, there areowerful social andultural attitudes. from the novelsf tolstoy, "war and peace," andostoevksy, "the brhers karamozov", to russian grocery store shees today, vodka is deeply ingined in russianife.
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>> russiapeople do not believe that alcohol is harmfulo health. there are lot of myths about alcohol being good for you health so r instance if you have heart attack it's consided good practice to drink 100 grams of cognac a if ve headache it is good to drink little bit ofodka. >> warner: in addition, rusan men are famous reluctant to sk medical attention. >> ( trslated ): the problem is that historicallymen don't really likeo look after their health, and don like going to thdoctors. >> warner:atiana golikova, russia minister of health, says younger russians oer the best hope ofurning these soci factors around. >> ( translated ):the generation at we are trying to bring up a hlthy one, its a w generation that was born i russia. we are working at schoo, colleges, itsard. >> warnerwhen russians do seek medicalttention, e care they finin public hospitals is too often substandard.
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we were taken to see one the country'sost advanced hospals, the pirogov medical surgical center in mosw th deputy director, dr. alexei kuznets, acknowledges this place a stand-out. >> ( transled ): our center is unique. the are quite a few problems still in our healthare system and not evermedical center los like ours. russia needs mo centers like os. warner: after a decade of under-funding heah care, minister golikova sd the governnt is going all-out to improve it. >> ( ranslated ): in t last few yearse have been incrsing the budget at all levels, and the amount ohealth care finanng. this is a seme that does not bring the results immediate, there is a deled effect. >>warner: public health advocates sathere's one governme step that would do more th any other to help - impose hefty taxes on alcol and tobacco athe u.s.
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and mostther western countries do. the last srt-lived attempt to do this, by soviet presint mikhail gorbacv in the 80s, d drive down drinking, but also his popularity. to dealith the demographic crisis and the health cris in russia you d't need any money. all you need is political wi. if russia woulharmonize its toacco prices with albania or romania or any po country in eure, we would get several years to the life expeancy. >> warner: the curnt health minist doesn't expect to try that again anytime soon. >> ( translated ):ncreasing tax for a sensitive product for the people has to te into the accounthe social consequences and such incase must be donby stages. we are going to keep phing that decisio but it won't ppen momentarily.
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>> warner: meanwhile, the other endf the demographic seesaw, the government is ao campgning to encourage more births. this moscow subwaposter urges pares to produce more potential sports medal winns. somfamilies with many kids received medals from president med ved-- med veive last month and the vernment is giving banee -- baby goness and the gornment is giving by bonuses worth $7,000-to- $10,000 to famili that have a second child. but thisoung couple, walking in theark saturday afternoon with their new tee-week-ol baby, maxim, sa financial inctives have nothing to do with their decision totart a family. >> ( translate ): our child is very calm, he slee well, i am happy with myusband and have nough of everything. >> wner: russia just needs more couples like them. >> lehrer: tomorrow, maaret interviews ssian foreign miister sergey lavrov.
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>> lehrer: ain, the major delopments of the day. the u. economy lost another 7,000 jobs in june. and the unemployme rate rose a tenthf a point to 9.5%, the highest in 26 years. he news sparked a sell-off wall street. the dow jones industrl average lost 3 points. 4,000 s. marines swarmed over helmand province in sthern afghanista one marine was killd in the first ll day of a major offensive against the taliba d vice president biden began an unannounced trito iraq. on an online- only feature tonight. on our site tracking healthare reform, bty ann bowser asked experts ur questions about a public insurance plan. the newshr's journalism is available whenever you wantt at we'll see you on-lin
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and again here tomrow evening with mark shields and micha gerson, among hers. i'm jim lehrer. hank you and good night. major fundinfor the newshour th jim lehrer isrovided by: intel. suprting math and science education for tomorrow' innovators. chevr. and with e ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. an... this proam was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributns to your pbs stion from viewers like you. thank you.
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