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tv   Charlie Rose  PBS  September 29, 2011 12:00pm-12:59pm EDT

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>> charlie: welcome to our program. tonight a conversasation with a group of chinese business leaders who have come to washington to talk to members of the obama administration about the relationship between china and the united states. they are are guo 3├▒shuqing. >> i think the economy is doing too much and the business and education and also scientific research and other area but we have some advantages in some areas but even in that area we need some reform restructure. >> charlie: and you can say that with no fear of worrying that some how somebody else in as important as youre will object
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to you saying that? >> ah, we have different views it's good. >> gao ziqing. >> i've been back here and i always find myself on the defending side of the system trying to explain to my countrymen where the system is superior and now i find it more and more difficult to do that ee especially after in the economic field and political field so people start to think well maybe, you know, the reason why our system has been here for over 2500 years is the reason. >> charlie: and gao ziqing. >> the china and the united states have relation for three
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years and we come along way and accomplished a lot but if we want to continue t make progress i think we really need to trust the other side. >> charlie: chinese business leaders on china and the united states when we continue.
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captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> charlie: we beg with the business leaders partnership initiative. they're a group of chinese business leaders who are in washington d.c. to talk with the secretary of state, the secretary of the treary and white house chief of staff and others. they have come in a sense to prote understanding between united states and china and
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introduced by them by the chairman of morgan stanley and begin with guo shuqing and it's china's mortgage lender and i am pleased to have him at this table for the first time. tell me how you see china's role in the economic world. >> at the moment i think china accounts in terms of exchange rate is 20% of the total of gdp in the world but in terms of the ppp, according to world bank and mf it should be double. it means 18% around. just because we in the past few years china's economy grows very fast so in terms of incremental
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figures china accounts for a lot. >> charlie: and china's w trying to move from an export economyo a consumption economy. give us a sse of ho fast that will develop and what it will mean for the rest of the world. >> it seems that in the past time we have misunderstanding about china's economy and exporting, investments. we're largest in consumption economy in the world in terms of housing and clothing and everything. at the moment we have ough auto mobile is number one and have 1 million to sell to the people
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but this year 20 million so that's number one and the food and beverage and other things, you know. especially in the housing. we consume something like the total half of the total steel and half of thetotal cement in china. >> charlie: half of the total steel and cement in china is used domesticly. >> and the consumption of the housin we in china do not have the market rent and statistic figures about house owned housg that should be rent equivalent 30% in this count and hig china 3.
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>> charlie: would you disagree with the idea that it's important in the future for the two economies for america to become more of a saving economy and for china more of a consuming economy because the development of a middle class in china will serve chinese manufactures and american manufactures and others. >> i think the economy's different and the coumption's different in two category. first is about goods. th second is about service and in this country it's more than 17% service butn china it's more than 40% services. >> charlie: 40% of economy is service economy. >> yes, so that's difference. and i mentioned mainly service.
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lily china increase very much in both sides investment good, consumer goods and service so that can be very potential. >> charlie: so in the last two weeks i've seen reports that the chinese economy may be slowing down. >> yes. >> charlie: do you believe that? >> already slowed down compared to previous years. 9-point something. >> charlie: why is that happening and does it worry you? >> i think we control the growth rate because we ha much higher inflation rates and the first eight months average we have 5.6 cpi. >> charlie: are you concerned? >> yes.
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whol country concerned. >> charlie: about the inflation. >> yes. >> charlie: and how do you believe you can attack inflation? >> i think we alreadysee some in the future at the moment. the figures inaugust lower than the previous months and also because we have the agriculture harvest this year and also we have international commodity market the prices are going down. that's compared with previous. >> charlie: do you fear a commercial, residential, real estate bubble? >> yes, to some extent. real estate market is different from city to city. see, in the coastline cities the prices growing very fast but in
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the inland there's slow down a little bit but recently even in the inland area the housing pricing growing very fast. we worry about that so they control the lending through that sector especially to the developer but for ordinary people when they buy their first in housing our bank providing the lending most more than 19% is first time by the housing. >> charlie: it is said by many out side china that it's crucial for china to have the economic growth it does because it ishe bestay to diffuse any social tension between rural and urban and coastline and i inner city.
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>> it's a question especially for e disparity between they will. the migrant workers now a days working in the areas they p much less than people doing the same job in the city. if we put all the social security and things together maybe american workers, you know, one-third and not covered by the social security system and the housing system program. >> charlie: it's often been said also that part of the reason that china was a saving economy ratherhan a consumption economy is people didn't have that safety net that existed in other --n the united states
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say. people were worried about that so therefore they save more. >> yeah, the save a lot but how much in real terms in absolute terms depends on how much yo got your income. if the income is several hundred yen per month even wh a savings rate of 50% is only 200 or 300. that's not very much. >> charlie: you've had an interesting career in terms of economic planning and spent in the 80s a couple years at oxford. so you know the world. what do you think the biggest misperception about china is among the people that you know. >> quite a lot. first thing they say is china is going to become the number one,
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surpassing the u.s. >> charlie: it's not a misperception. your aggregate economy will be larger. >> in terms of 1 the economy he innovation driven and china is still in dus in dust industry e. every country talking about education and education reform even thi country. if you compare with about reading and mathmatics sense,
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china may be good for the middle school and primary school but for the university and college, that level, the u.s. and the u.k. is very strong. >> charlie: the pool of talent you have among the young people is significantly better than it's ever been before because they want to be in china. because they get wonderful educatns outside of china and now they want to come back there's excitement about what china can be and is becoming. >> at the moment we see some very well educated peoplen domestic institutions for the university and colleges but unfortunately we do not see very many creative -- >> charlie: i hear you and that's a very important point.
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how do you change that? creating innovative talent? >> we have to change -- you know, reform the education system and also the scientific rearchystem. scientific research system in china is still very traditional one that's very big national system for that. >> charlie: so that's a huge challenge. >> yes. >> charlie: the sense of making sure because you're developing great technology companies. >> yes, we have that and we need to protect the intellectual property not for the foreigners but for -- >> charlie: there is the question of -- always comes up a
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sense of control. is it on the part of the government too much of an effort to exercise control over everything. >> yes, i think in general the chinese government is doing too much intervening too muchin the business and ecation and scientific research andther area but we have some advantages in some areas like social measurements but even in that area we need restorm and restructure. >> charlie: and you can say that with no fear of worrying that some how somebody else as importants you are will object to you saying tha >> we have different views. that's good. that means we can discuss that. in th
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many institutions with individuals in hong kong and everywhere we have a very mixed structure has proved very successful the ownership is mixed so the board of directors come fromll over the world and you have interviews and so ny times debate. i think it makes progress. >> charlie: you're saying in china what the west ought to understand and t emerging world ought to understandthat while china there is within china at the highest levels of business and academic and government a debate constantly about how we can achieve and become all that we have the potential to become. >> yes.
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we encourage that an fromhe top level and talking many years about it to be an innovative country and organization so we have to do that. >> charlie: what do you admire most about america? >> i think the research and the education especiallystudy. >> charlie: the great universities have great research and scientific inquiry. >> academic. >> charlie: academic, yeah. and what do you -- what's the most significant change china has taken place in china over the last ten years? >> in the past ten years ihink very big result for the whole
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country is people reale enterprises and individuals and academic andeconomy and we should develop a sustainable growth pattern for the coming futures. for won't last for long. >> charlie: if you don't you make sure the economic growth is sustainable. sustainable at what level? >> i think first is we cannot consume the energy. >> charlie: that's the big question. >> like the u.s. and european in the past time and near future we already see that. we waste a lot for money a lot of materials to build building, highways and bridges then we destroy that for this reason or that reason. that's a waste a lot in china.
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>> charlie: what do you worry about? >> about china's economy? i think inflation is still very, you know -- >> charlie: and the threat of inflation is felt most in food? >> yes, the food because at the moment because the basket for that index but ihink also the housing rent should have a share that's also very high. >> charlie: just to make sure i derstood you you think that the real estate bubble in your judgment will not burst. >> if we doing thingsike sof lending and -- >> charlie: and how will you achieve that?
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>> we cannot give measures to quickly, to heavily so we allow the growth rate to become lower and lower sometimes. >> charlie: whatdo y feel will happen in europe and if there's a contagion will it are have a huge impact in the global economy. >> i think european's problem is very limited. there are several small countries have a worse spending -- >> charlie: greece and italy and portugal. >> yeah. all the european countries reach agreements of common sense to deal with that to fix that. i think it's very easy to solve.
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in greece you have is 2.6 of the european economy and they still have high value-added services so i think the common fundamental conditions still is good so i don't think it should be a problem. >> charlie: will state capitalism in 15 years in china look different than it looks today? >> maybe 50 years. >> charlie: it will take 50 years. >> 50 years and before the reform? >> charlie: yes. >> yes, the planning commission -- economy, right? >> charlie: yes. >> of course it's not very efficient resource and education is not very good. not --
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>> charlie: here's my point and you're the economist and i'm not, clearly. my point is there are arguments made today that the chinese model of state capitalism may for some people the model they aspire to ratr than the political and economic model in the united states. that there may be a debate about which is best and most efficient. >> i think you can't compare it simply because we have completely different conditions in the u.s. from china. china is a a traditional agriculture society and over populated conditions. it's quite different. >> charlie: as you go from generationo generation in leadership, how do you chart the evolution there?
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are the leaders moving in a certain direction? >> yes, i think the leadership is much more close to the reality. >> charlie: closer to the reality? >> yes, become more pragmatic. close to the real conditions and also put the economic affairs i'd say, you know, very much in basics. >> charlie:and if there is a great debate i china today about its future, what uld it be? >> i think it's about the sial justicend that means the economic income distribution and potical,ocial and equality.
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>> charlie: and is human rights changing? >> yes, of urse. chging very much. now a days people enjoy it ve much. >> charlie: even though there are significant cases we all see that get worldwide attention whether it's an artist or nobel recipient. >> if you use western countries standard which of course is still different but -- >> charlie: but if you look at your mark that's change that's taken place. >> yes, of course. >> charlie: it's a pleasure to have you on this program. thank you. >> thank you very much. >> charlie: we continue with gao ziqing with a fund of over $4 million and it was formed in
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2007 as an investment company for chins invest returns and i'm pleased to have him at ts table, welcome. tell me about china today in terms of the economy is it slowing down inour judgment? >> well, by the nuers of course it's sort of slowing down. i'm quite happy because for a while we are those of us who see the things coming were afraid that the economy's going a little too fast especially in some of thinland providences where people still have gdp as an only measure of their success so it's pushing and even though today some of the providence people are pushing very hard just to change to get the
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industes out and we have the pollution and the over heating and all these things and the real estate is not a big thing but over the past two or three years the government has been trying very hard to some extent to suppress pricing and to slow down the economy. >> charlie: keep a look on inflation. >> right. and even inflation number's definitely higher than last year and the year before and some people are predicting a little highernflation but as far as i can see we're containing it. >> charlie: how do you see the global economy and what kinds of things where are attractive to you? >> well, first of all the global economy overall is not in good shape right now because a lot of the problems not short term bu some of e long term fundamenta fundamental props especially in
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the western world it becomes more difficult to say get the data in general becausee economy is slowing down. but at the same time you see emerging markets still going strong in many places and some of the larger counies with so many people, there's a huge base of domestic consumption and our governments, chinese and indians and south africans are all encouraging our people to conse more and because of that our economy's still going forward and therefore we now look a little more versus the western hemisphere but the united states' economy's the laest in the world and europe's a huge part of the economy. we see opportunies it's just a little harder. >> charlie: you and i participated in a conference where they addressed the
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problems of europe. and whetherhina may play a role in helping them come out of e crisis. >> that's a question people constantly ask us the way i see it -- of course we'rell interconnected so we're helping each other the problem is you can't expect china to be the savior of the west. we have our problems and they kind of trillions of dollars that people see as this huge trough with which to help is the foreign currency reserve is not for the government we will try to help to the extent that we can but we have to watch the bottom line. >> charlie: are there any restrictions in terms of investment you'd like to make in the west especially the united states that there are
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restrictions on that make it difficult for you? >> well, first of all there are restrictions in industry which we don't worry about -- weaponry producing and any tobacco industry or industry has it produce the mass killing machines we never wanted to do that but even with other infrastructure or banking and some of the western countries always have certain restrictions and now they'remaking it more difficult for large investors like us and somimes people can't help but get more cynical about it in china because if let's say other countries which have probably similar
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ideological background they probably won't have a problem because we see them invting in banks with more than 10% nobody had a problem but wn we started doing it people started making life diffict for us and will more forms to fill and takes longer to approve so people get cynical. >> charlie: the other places to put your money. >> no other places to put our money. that's unfortunate with over 200 countries the world. >> and the emerging markets are very attractive. >> they are at this time. many of the emerging mkets you can have very low price for assets they have other problem, political stabity, corruption and things but it's all in relative terms >> charlie: the ceo of the co-cola compan areoing very well in china and around the world but especially in china.
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it's bome an increasingly attractive for them he said it's easier often to do business in china than to do business in the united states though coca-cola's headquartered in atlanta, georgia. you think that's true? >> in many ways it should be true because we have all these people. i know a lot of manufacturing people who say well, it's a lot easier because they never expect to take such long breaks and demanding so much hours for this and that and so therefore on any given projectt takes longer to get anything blt here in this country. charlie: because of regulatory requirements. >> and the workers can only work a few hours a day but in china we have a law but very few people take heed of the law show
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workers make longer hours. >> charlie: because they want to make more money. >> yes. it's easier to get things done there, that's true. whether or not it's a good thing i don't know. eventually it encroaches upon the health of the worker and otheproblemsbut the thing is in today's wld if you're in a competitive mode and want to be successful country versus country then that's the way things seem to be done. >> charlie: is the playing field level today a rule of law where people give predictability and expectations to those that want to come to china. >> have you to put it in historical perspective if, compare china today wh the western world many things we have to improve and have not done to a perfect extent but at the same time if you look at china today compared to china 20 or 30 years ago it made a
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tremendous amount of progress and in the past few years people talk about the property and i personally have many friends including family members working in the internet field so o course it's dear to my heart as well and i support it butt the same time if you look at it from a business point of view this piracy and things you look at the business model changing and it would no longer be a problem in a few years time because the whole business would turn into eye much more service-based business rather than copy based therefore it doesn't matter any more if you copy someone else because gradually the work and propty would be based on time rather than copy time say. >> charlie: on the other hand there are those who argue that
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in china there will be increasing respect of copyright and intellectual company because of growing companies and they'll want protection for their own products. >> that's what i meant. they all -- all my friends say we have to give it to ourselves first. >> charlie: it used to be said right after the economic collapse here in 2008 that china which had looked at the united states as a model and with great preciation at their final markets after what happened in 2008 many chinese businesses and intellectuals and public officials said maybe we should take a second look. maybe we don't want to be exactly the way they are and maybe we want to look at it a
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different way. >> that's true. i've been back to china for the past 23 years and i can tell you my friends for the firsten years i found myself on the defending side of the american system and explaining to my countrymen this is how their system works and why it's superior in many ways but now i find it more and more difficult to do that especially after a lot of changes in the economic field and regulatory field and political field and people start to think maybe the reason why our system's been here for over 2500 years is the reason. >> charlie: there was something good about it? >> right. have you to look at it from a much longer view. >> charlie: sometimes people will look at what happened and say for long time this there was an idea that some how the united states had a market on creativity and innovation but over the last ten years as china grows and experiences a new
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confidence there's also a new creativity and innovation. can you make that case? >> definitely. first of all, the united states is still the most dynamic economy and most creative. the system is still very conducive t these things but at the same time the other countries are growing up. the differences aregetting smaller. we still have a long way to go to where the united states is at but espeally china the young people coming out of the system and trng so hard to get ahead and they're learning and learning from the creativity from the intellectual progress that we're seeing so and the country's getting much moreopen than before.
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spite all the criticism from ourselves the country is much more open than before and all these young kids coming up no longer worry or fearof this sort of repressive system before and for them this is no longer a problem. >> charlie: there's a degation of which yore a rt of and others will sit at the table visiting the united states and having an opportunity to talk to policymakers from the secretary of the ste and secretary of treasurynd chief of staff. what do you hope to get from that dialog. >> i'v participated in the dialog and this is useful to the extent that people would start to understand things a little deeper from a third voice because when two people get
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engaged in an argument sometimes you can agree, sometimes you don't, after a while you start gettininto a stalemate but if you hear from a third person, someone from seemingly neutral you hear, well, maybe there's a point. i think it's a very useful purpose and it should serve the purpose in china as well. >> charlie: and the purpose it will serve in china is what? >> forages our government deal with other government from official channel and they have their set rules to do these things b if our peoe go back and these members of this dialog go back and talk and we all our connections and tell our government people this is how we think. this is how those people think despite their officials then i would think people would get a richer experiee and they would
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think more about their dealings and how theyeal with each other. >> charlie: is itair to say that the chine are more concerned out the dysnction in our political system than there are in our long term sort of economic possilities. that it's the inability to deal with political issues. >>well, i can say -- these two things are interconnected. in the wrong run because we're all long term people. >> charlie: chinese arelong term people. >> especially chinese. for every chinese student we have to spend a lot more time to study our history than anyone else's. we have that baggage. >> charlie: or that wisdom. >> you can say that, i was trick to be modest. when we look at american system there are so manydvantages to your system and when we look at
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your economic strengths we look at your creativity and millionaires in your cture and that's great. it's a results of your system in a way but today when all of a sudden we see such -- >> charlie: inability to come to a common policy everybody knows will be beneficial tthe people and economy. >> when you see and people start thinking well maybe that's the problem. some how you're system has come to some sort of a dead end at least for now that you need to rethink about a system because otherwise things should not be done that ay. things should t be handled that way. people start to think mor about it rather than before basically thinking that the unitestates is probably the model for the western world and in our effort to learn from market economy we
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ought to look at it and we have a lot of people studying it. i'm sure on the average level the chinese understand your system a lot more than you're pele understand our system. >> charlie: chinese government hold as a lot of american treasures but they're connected and dependent with the united states because it serves as a huge market. is that a fair statement of where the amount of dollars you hold stands with the volume of the exports that you're able to sell. >> it's interconnected. >> charlie: will it be changing? >> well, it's changing on a daily basis. >> charlie: you're selling on a daily basis? >> buying and selling. the fundamental thing here is that the united states ithe biggest market in the world and e u.s. treasury market is the largest in the world so let's
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say from some of the blogrs in china say you should sell the u.s. treasury because we can't go down with the dollar. what do you buy with that money? at the present time there's not much of a choice. we get some sort of uck there with you so the two of us -- that's why people call it a mutual it's like a channel for mutual destruction, if we pull out, we go down, you go down but to the extent that extent the economy are holding your market products would be tantamount to your contribution total government. the government can print money. it makes people nervous, right. >> charlie: that's one difference with europe today.
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thank you for coming. a pleasure to see you. >> thank you. > zhou wenong headsthe forum for china conference and is back to talk about it. welcome. >> thank you. >> charlie: so the delegation is here. you in fact al are vice president of the u.s. people's friendship association. how would you measure the friendship between china and the united stas today? >> at a different level. at the level people to people level goes back a long way. a level between the two governments. on the whole the relations are in good shape but we need to take care of it. we need to manage it very
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carefully. on the one hd we share many common interests and i think we need to work together to make sure that the common interests increase. >> charlie: common interests being a stable world -- >> peace and stability of the world and common development, growth f everyone. security. on the other hand there are many differences between the two untries. >> charlie: and those are? >> if he question of taiwan and for instance the currency bill. >> charlie: let's talk about currency because that's one of them that always comes u secretary ithner you met with today i'm sure that was part of the discussion with secretary geithner. he believes it's in your interesting to let your currency appreciate.
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>> it is appreciating and started in the year of 2005 because i was ambassador here already and started in june of '05 so if you count the appreciation since 2005 it has appreciated by some 23%. now if you add inflation to that figure it's about 29%. so i think this is a fact. then secondly i think argument hear and you hear very often is not really very good argument. people try to tie unemployment to sort of so-called manipulation of chinese currency. >> charlie: the argument goes we become an import market and you can sell products less expensively and therefore it hurts american manufactures and therefore they have to lay off
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people. >> the fact is simply because you stop producing certain things now you have to import and you have to buy from us or other people. if you don't buy from us you have to buy from other people. this is a reality in the united states and because the cost of bor is higher and the oth costs are higher so it's not profitable to produce certain things here and it's happening here and elsewhere. it will happen to china. >> charlie: in terms of the impressions that you think washington has of china and china has of washington, there are two elements. one is that some people in china believe the united states wants to contain their role in the world and their growth. some people in the united states believe that china wants to sort of has long range ambitions to
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dominate everything. are thosboth wrong? >> the agreement between the two sides by the two governments is to build up a cooperative partnership based on mutual respect and winning for all. that's the aeement at the official level and i think we need to focus on that. . we need to work for that so that it will be implemented. as to the doubt, suspicion -- >> charlie: on our part our your part. >> here and in china but we need to prove to the people the suspicion is not necessary. >> charlie: as you meet with secretary of state, secretary of treasury and white house chief of staff, do they ask you about your intent with are respect to your role around the world?
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do they ask you what it is you want china to become? >> the secretary saw our foreign minister and i'm sure that will be part of the conversation. i'm not in theeeting but i think they will touch upon these things. we nee to -- youlso need to to us and we need to show to you that we mean what we say and you mean what you say when we are talking about peaceful development and peaceful coexistence when we're talking abt winning for all. i said thisoint that maybe we need to make more efforts to make sure that what has been said will be implemented. >> charlie: when you look at various issues around the world, north korea, iran is there more
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and more cooperation there. >> there's been cooperation among parties. but of course the situation varies from time to time but on the whole basic too is a cooperative tone though may not be to the satisfaction of all partiebecause different parties still have different views on some of the question. >> charlie: you think united states and china have a different judgment about whether iran is seeking nuclear weapons or not? >> i think on the question of iran and korea and the korean peninsula we have the same goal that is peace and stability and
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the nuclearization of the ninsula and denuclearization of the country in question. i think we have the same goal but sometimes we have different approach. >> charlie: one big opportunity for cooperation has to do with the environment. china always makes the point that you've been do this and living in the industrial age with a larger cacity to influence the environment than we have so don't expect usto live by the same standards. >> i think myeply to that is first of all, chinatill developing country and as was agreed by the international community developing countries and developed countries have a common but differentiated responsibility in terms of the climate change. that's point one. number one. secondly, china is doing what we
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can in improving the energy efficiency. we have set a goal that is to make sure that the energy consumption wi come down and we're working on that. >> charlie: is energy efficiency in your judgment the best way to go. will it provide the largest result in ensuring global warming is restricted. >> that's one thing and we need to try new energy. wind power, solar power -- yeah. >> charlie: is your commitment to that stronger and better than the u.s. 'commitment? >> i will not pass judgment on how strong -- i think chinese commitment ist( very solid. >> charliewhen you look at at's now called cyber warfare and cyber security, is that a concern for the chinese government? >> my concern for chinese government but for political governmes of many coutries.
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i think wha we shoulwork together and we need to work together in this area to reach some kind of international agreement concerning the cyber security. we'll have international standard which would be agreed upon, should be agreed upon wh every country. >> crlie: with he is pee andage an -- >> charlie: with espionage and thinlike that. >> yeah. >> look, china and united states have relations for about three years and we have come to -- we have come a long way and we have accomplished a lot but if we want to continue to make progress then i think we really need to trust the other side. >> charlie: exactly. yeah.
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i mean the thing tt most serves both is to be able to trust each other and not to act in fear of each other. >> for us we have just published a peaceful development paper and the chinese government solemnly has made the commitment to peaceful development and it has very detailed descriptions of what we mean by peaceful development so that shows china is determined to take their part all the way to the end so i hope people will no longer think china development will be a threat or is a threat because that's not square with the fact. >> charlie: should we expect a different china because you're getting new leadership?
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>> i thi the -- we have already chartered a course and the course will be course for china's development chartered by xi jinping and we have accomplished two of themnd by the middle of this search centul be able to accomplish the third step. that's the will of all chinese people and i think the new chinese leaders will follow that. >> charlie: thank you for coming. pleasure to see you again. >> thank you. captioning sponsored by rose communications captned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org
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