>> that was excellent. bye. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. my job is to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. all right. let's see. the turks shoot down a russian plane. the consumer confidence gauge is plummeting. brussels remains on total lockdown with expectation of imminent attack. we've got a holiday travel advisory in this country warning of increased terrorist threats. the fed is prepped and ready for its first rate hike in years. all of europe's forces are
getting hit hard. and what do we do? in spite of this discouraging backdrop, we rally. dow gaining 20 points. not bad. when you see days like this one, where the odds are stacked against pretty much anything positive, and you nevertheless get a big turn, you have to not working as a barometer of stocks. right now this market is saying it wants to go higher. and it's yelling that message over a cacophony of negativity, the likes of which we haven't seen in some time. what's working? oil, which is supposed to go to $30 a barrel, every time it goes down we hear about dive, dive, dive! it had another good day, a day when it rallies away from its perilous forget weigh station, inspiring one of the greatest
oil stock rallies of the year. schlumberger, exxon leading the way. coral labs rallied almost 4 points. crude may not want to soar into the stratosphere but these stocks sure do. that's an obvious sign that the big institutional money managers are fearful that they don't own enough oil stocks. they fear a lack of exposure. when a russian plane goes down next to turkey it's reasonable to assume that tensions in the middle east could get worse and cause potential disruptions to energy output in the region. when that happens, what happens? oil goes higher. that's necessary. incredibly, the oil glut in this country keeps building. the fabled $30 price tag looms large. until we bounce that high and we're on that way, the short
keep playing out. oil down to $40 and change has too many short sellers. oil up at $48 and change has too many longs. crude pings from 48 to 40 and right back. this time, amazingly, the oil stocks stopped pinging down. that's right, when crude declines, oil stocks don't fall much anymore. when crude rebounds, oil stocks go more. restaurant and retail you would expected to get hammered because less confident consumers spend less money. yet the opposite seems to be happening. nordstrom is following the footsteps of lowe's. today, dollar tree and tiffany join them. two trees definitely not of the same pie, except when it comes to stock trading.
estimates. both stocks got hammered at the opening. but then both stocks, high and low tones, drew in buyers. chipotle, with a stock that's jumped from 536 to nearly 578 since e. coli happened in six states. if that situation gets under control, that will be certain. i can't even figure out today why panera went up. there's the food business. this morning campbell's soup reported a so-so, not an mm-mm, but a so-so number. it talked a good game about cutting costs. and the market loved it.
hormel blew away the numbers. my guiltiest pleasure being bacon on a sandwich after a night on the town. this morning someone on twitter said, i guess cramer is going to tell us to buy hormel again, i'm being harassed for recommending the best stock in the group. all i can say is, harass me, harass away. guilty as charged. i love recommending stocks that go higher. i think it's good. the semiconductor place? people have given up on analog company until the stock was sent roaring today. now even the most bedraggled semiconductor group, they got their mojo back.
these companies are all linked with apple which also went higher. and they have been absent in the whole run of f.a.n.g. -- facebook, amazon, netflix, and google -- which makes the whole thing so hard. stop it, i know answer f.a.n.o. i'm stinging with f.a.n.g. the bear spell seems to be broken now that chips have gone as cheap as you'll see them. how about the cybersecurity stocks? palo alto network put up some tremendous numbers that show the spending in the most important of the i.t. group is growing heavier, not lighter. it's just that the money is going to more full service companies like palo alto rather than the more episodic companies. more on that later in the show. or take the much-bemoaned pfizer/allergan deal. yesterday we heard about what a crummy deal this was for allergan holders. the stock plummeted.
up the deal, especially when i told you to buy allergan down 10 bucks, wow i'm a really bad guy. i was trending for ridicule, hashtag stupid. you would have thought that i was endorsing the purchase of allergan. it was all my fault. i threw my headset down. that was rex. today i felt pretty good. because allergan gained the whole thing back, a 3.22% gain. defense stocks railroad again. our country is lined up to buy the wares of northrop grumman and lockheed martin. at the same time, travel stocks got hurt by the travel advisory. american, delta, spirit all
getting hurt. but here's the bottom line. this was clearly a day where we should have been crushed the way they were in europe. yet it didn't happen. in traditional journalism, it's not a story when something that was supposed to happen didn't happen. but when it comes to the stock market, if you don't get a decline when you should, that's a statement. the market is saying, if this is what happens when the things are bad, just imagine how good the action would be if we actually get some great news. patrick in wisconsin, patrick. >> caller: hey jim, booyah. >> r-e-l-a-x, patrick. >> caller: okay. i picked up a small stake in april in avon. i watched it plummet. now even today citigroup raised it to a buy. i'm thinking maybe it's a target
that might -- >> they do have an upcoming analysts meeting. sherry mccoy, i was talking about it with "real money," she was a major executive at j&j. i think maybe there's something to say. could it be a takeover? i don't know. i don't know who would want them. we did ask the ceo of tupperware, would you buy avon, and he said no. let's speak to lynn in new york. >> caller: hi, jim, a big thank you for your show and books. i've learned a lot over the years. >> thank you. >> caller: big thanks. i own starwood hotels and host hotels, a spinoff from starwood. with the merger of starwood with marriott, the dividend distributions seems will be less
with marriott. so my two questions are, if i sell starwood, should it be done before or after the merger, and two, should i sell host hotels as well along with it? >> no. here's what i want you to do. i was going over with scott berman who works with me, and i was going to pull the trigger for the travel trust and buy more starwood, because it's just too darn low. enough is enough with the selling of starwood. today we should you have gotten hammered. but we didn't. the market is saying it wants to move higher. so you can imagine what would happen if we got some good news. with thanksgiving day just a few days away, is it time to carve out some room for smucker's? i'm eyeing the company's post earnings potential.
i'm going off the charts to see if the holiday season can bring your portfolio some good cheer. why don't you stick with cramer! >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to email@example.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc.
head to madmoney.cnbc.com. all right. what's happening to the stock of hains celestial? they make herbal teas, everything you find in my house. a formerly high flying stock being taken to the wood house. they're down to 41 and change as of today. initially hain got slammed when it failed to live up to wall street's inflated expectations. then three weeks ago it increased by 8.9%, i'll take that, but money managers were
disappointed with the company's declining sales in the uk. now down 14%. at these levels, hain is just selling for 17 times earnings estimates, which means it's trading at a discount with the 1 and 2% growing packaged food companies. at what point do we acknowledge the bar has been lowered and the expectations have come down to levels where they can be beaten? it's check in with irwin simon, the founder and ceo of hain celeb challenge. welcome back to "mad money." >> hey, jim, how are you? >> as i said on air, no one was tougher about hain than hain itself. you guys, john carroll in particular, said listen, our shortfall was driven by, and he
you are in the stores and unprofitable, i mean, jeez. it was relentless. you guys were down there giving yourselves the business. >> so, hey, you know, we're tough on ourselves. you know, we put out great food, and, you know, with what we put out there, you've got to be tough on yourself. what i said on the call, i have never seen the demand for natural organic food by more retailers out there, whether it's a walmart, target, whole feeds, et cetera. on the other hand, there's more competition. but you know what, there's $800 billion of food sold in the u.s. every year. so there's a big market. and hain is not going to change that market by itself. on the other hand, there's 94 million millennials. let me tell you something. they're demanding clean labels, clean ingredients. we're the only country where 40% of our products are organic. >> you said it, but again, i'm referencing your call. you said you're going to have to
start spending to get the word out. spending scares people. >> you know what, spending if we're going to grow that top line, we'll get the sales for it. who was the biggest seller of organic foods today? costco, walmart. >> amazon. >> amazon is one of my fastest growing customers, our biggest baby customer today. with that, jim, you have to invest back in your brand. we'll continue to do that. if you look at hain, there were a couple of brands that performed not the way we wanted it to. we'll sell 1.8 million turkeys this year, at some good prices. we're seeing some good volume growth. with that, we'll spend some money on our brands. on the other hand, if you look at our acquisitions and integration, sg&a, we're taking costs out of this business. our profits are up every
our top line sales are growing digits. we're delivering. >> about you're talking about the perimeter of even the natural organic stores doing well, but not the center. people are starting to worry maybe there is this kind of stagnation, even though you reel people still associate you with whole foods. >> and i love being associated with whole foods, they're a great customer and a great partner. whole foods will get it together. we're seeing great growth on our turkey business at whole foods. that means consumers are going there shopping for thanksgiving. >> we've done whole foods thanksgiving for a couple of years now. >> right now we're seeing 20% growth of our turkey business at whole foods. that's saying something. >> that's very good. let me go over that again. you're saying year over year, 20%, for something we have every year.
pounds, 16 to 18 pounds. consumers are buying bigger turkeys this year. just to come back for a second, jim, in regards what you said -- >> no, what you said, that i'm reporting on. >> hain will continue to invest back into its brands and expand distribution. where the consumer is going is health and wellness. you've talked today in regards to acquisitions being done. everybody wants to get into this category. different categories, different brands, and around the world too. >> here you go, you talk about how walmart, you lost these aisle caps, and now they're coming back. what happened? >> walmart went to some new strategy on -- doug is trying, doing the right thing. he is focused on natural organics. >> i like him. he is trying. >> so do i. let me tell you something. his customers are asking for it. there's a big focus on it there.
and with that, hey, hain will be there, hain will replace a lot of other products. >> you go into plant based foods, that's white wave. you're going head to head with other guys. >> there's no other food company out there in the natural organic space that is diversified with us. personal care, snacks, plant based, meat free, protein, groceries. if you look in europe, what we're doing throughout europe today, whether with tessco, with sansbury, in the middle east. >> remember, like i read through the quarter, i said, man, i'm too bullish. >> you know, listen, again, maybe we're hard on ourselves. we were up over 9%. our operating income up over 9%. year over year. and we did not lower guidance. you come back and look at it, our stock got beaten up and we
did not lower guidance. so, you know, i'm excited. and i've got to tell you, healthy eating, not a fad, not a trend. it will continue to be a big part of life. just coming back at thanksgiving, 1.8 million turkeys sold, organic turkeys sold, that's what the consumer wants today. you just recently saw the world health organization come out and said, hey, eating protein or eating deli with nitrates, with carcinogens, what it can cause, i've got to tell you, do you mean how many retailers who called and said, my deli business is down 40%, can you get meat-free or antibiotic deli in here. >> happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving to you. >> "mad money" will be right back. >> announcer: coming up -- hack attack.
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what's going on with the j.m. smucker, the packaged food company known for its jams and jellies not to mention jif peanut butter? the stock exploded 7% higher last thursday after the company reported a quarter so spectacular, it caught a lot of people off guard, especially the short sellers. if you've been paying attention to smucker's, you know this has been coming for a long time. it's been a stellar player for ages, to the point where this old school purveyor of jams and jellies has transformed itself to a packaged food heavyweight with a powerful presence in baking products, coffee, even pet foods. dominance in the aisles. how has smucker pulled off such an epic transformation and were are people only just now beginning talk about it? this is a multi-year story that gradually unfolded episodically
bought proctor and gamble. by 2008, smucker had become a market leader in baked goods, oils, coffee, and of course peanut butter and jelly. in 2013, the company hit a rough patch. it started to look like buying wasn't such a successful strategy for smucker, everything from consumers shifting to natural and organic products, all of which combined to produce some very disappointing results in 2014 that threw a lot of people off the consent. now when 2015 started, smucker seemed to get its mojo back. the stock is up 21%. how did they get it back? the stocks took off overnight last week but the turnaround was many quarters in the making. i want you to take a step back
you can spot the next smucker. the turn got going in june of 2014 when smucker showed signs of life as they explained how they were dealing with a number of challenges. smucker was able to put through a 9% coffee price increase without batting an eyelash. most people didn't think it could hold. it did. their peanut butter division lost ground to the other guys. this is when management indicated that peanut butter was ready to make a comeback thanks to big product launches like jif whips and jif to go, both of which are awesome. the stock leapt into the stratosphere at the beginning of this past february. when smucker reported a strong quarter. for importantly, the company said it was buying big heart pet
brands for $5.8 billion. this deal was truly transformational. it gave smucker a whole new platform to grow its business, building a three-legged stool of coffee, human food, and pet food, the latter of which is rapidly expanding. the stock shot up the day after the deal was announced. for months after that the big heart pet acquisition, smucker stock marked time, pulling back to as low as 105 in late july. it was trading at 113 last week. basically the same levels when the big heart deal was announced back in february. in part that's because when smucker reported at the beginning of june, the big heart business missed the top and bottom line targets. while the coffee business continued to be slammed by competition, in retrospect it was merely a speed bump, because the next time they reported at
the very end of august, smucker's coffee business had finally found a bottom. coffee sales rising 4% year over year. on top of that management started talking about some transformational opportunities created by the pet food acquisition. fast forward to a little over a month ago. j.m. smucker laid out their whole strategy, a brilliant presentation. this is when we learned smucker had cracked the code out of squeezing profits out of new flavors and line extensions. the company seemed to have gotten religion when it comes to embracing natural and organic foods that people can't get enough of these days. they rolled out jif natural peanut butter and fruit spreads. they introduced more natural products like pillsbury mixes with no colors or artificial flavors.
its long term organic sales forecast from 3 to 4%. this is an up or down situation. also reducing its pet food sales guidance. once again, you got the sense that the big heart pet food acquisition may not have been quite as positive as we first thought, which is why the stock tumbled more than 3% thanks to the number cuts. but then we get that number last week when smucker delivered a truly incredible quarter and the market seemed at last to embrace the same sentiment as one of the analysts' reports, "better late than never." good news on the pet food front, the rollout of the natural balance pet brand appears to be going very well. meanwhile smucker's coffee business is rolling again, causing management to raise
share from competitor maxwell. i also use eight o'clock and starbucks, so you know. smucker raised its cash flow guidance from 900 million to 925 million. no wonder the stock jumped nearly 7% in one day. i think it's become clear that not only does j.m. smucker have a terrific long term vision, but more important, they seem to know how to execute on that vision. that's why i think the stock remains cheap. given that it's trading at 19 times earnings, that's a substantial discount from kraft hines. and my travel trust owns mondolese and kraft hines.
it's down a buck 50 from where it closed yesterday. i think the stock would have been much higher today if not for the secondary, a big reason why the shares were down 40 cents, because today was a huge day for the food group. the last time smucker's did one of these it turned out to be a terrific buy opportunity. i am telling you this will be again the same. real turnarounds don't happen overnight. boy, are they bumpy. remember i told you about real invention last night? it can take time, sometimes years. at this point i believe j.m. smucker is well and truly turning. it's about to have a breakout. which means the stock has a lot more upside. especially if you can buy it in the weakness like we got today because of the secondary offering. i want to go to drew in
>> caller: hello. >> drew, what's up. >> caller: i bought groupon six months ago, and ever since, it's been dropping. should i keep it or sell it? >> it's way too early to own groupon. sell it. joel in florida. >> caller: a big booyah and the shoutout to the eagles. i was calling for that you are thoughts on wing stop, could it be the next big fast casual restaurant? >> no, i would rather own buffalo wild wings after that disappointment. i'm sorry about that brain freeze. you mentioned the eagles and sometimes, well, unless it's hotel california, i've really had it. here we go. with a name like smucker's it's got to be good. much more "mad money" ahead. plenty of concerns in this market.
don't let that rain on your holiday parade. why it could be the most wonderful time of the year for your portfolio. and it's not a car ad. then a surge in cyber hacking today. time to make a return to the cyber stocks? and it's my mother-in-law's birthday the same day. don't tell her i know that. i think it will be very profitable. stick with cramer!bout the cowboy walk because of a saggy diaper it's time to dance freely thanks to new pampers cruisers the first and only diaper that helps distribute wetness evenly into three extra absorb channels. so it stays drier and doesn't sag like other diapers so wiggle it jiggle it and do, whatever that is, in new pampers cruisers love, sleep and play. pampers
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right now we've got a lot of noise to contend with in this market. turkey shooting down a russian warplane this morning, that's about as serious an international incident you can get to, not to mention france still reeling from the terrorist attacks a week and a half ago. everybody concerned the federal reserve will start raising interest rates next month unless we get some awful economic data between now and december. put it all together and this environment can feel pretty daunting. at times like these it's worth taking a step back and looking at the technicals. that's why tonight we're going off the charts with a brilliant technician and a commodities expert and my colleague at "real money" on where she thinks the
she points out we're now approaching the time of the year where the equity markets almost always seem to find a bid underneath. every year we hear about the santa claus rally. after looking at the history of these, garner sees it as are no of a thanksgiving day rally, or the stock market is just celebrating christmas earlier and earlier each year. consider that historically stocks go higher in mid- to late november regardless of what's happening with their fundamentals. garner points out last year the s&p 500 managed to put selling on hold during the holidays which achieved a 200-point rally from late november to early january. i'm talking about the heart of the great recession. of course these gains went away pretty quickly.
2008, when the world was falling apart, and the center did not hold, the year-end rally thesis was alive and well. if it could work back then, why should it be any different? take a look at the seasonal chart provided by moore research center which depicts the average price pattern based on the december s&p 500 futures contract. this is a bit of an unusual chart from what we usually do in "off the charts." it's got a y axis from zero to 100, with zero the most likely time for an annual low in the s&p 500 and a 100 reading indicating the most likely time for an annual high during this 15-year period. historically we tend to get a big dip in october followed by a fabulously bullish move into the new year. this pattern has repeated itself
where garner believes it's silly to try to buck this trend. this year, instead of coming in october, the big selloff of the averages took place in september, which allowed the market to bottom at the end of september and cause the rally to begin a few weeks earlier than usually. garner points out the wednesday before thanksgiving, that's tomorrow, and the friday right afterwards, black friday, tend to produce some fabulous gains in the stock market. get this, this is astounding. over the last 62 years, garner notes there were only 13 years where these two sessions produced a combined loss. 13 out of 62. i mean, there are some nfl teams playing at that pace, but really. garner things the next trading days will be good ones. the last trading day in november has been up in the last six years. this year it will be monday. no wonder we didn't get clobbered today.
how about the actual holidays, though? garner points out if you bought the s&p 500 on december 15th and held on to it, you would have have made money in the last 14 of 15 years. this stuff is pretty dispositive. it's why garner things it doesn't pay to bet against the they're the most distinctive in it tends to push the market higher this time of year. let's move past the seasonal patterns and zoom right into the daily chart of the s&p 500 and things look right now, this year. garner points out the s&p spent the first two weeks of november pretty much digesting the gains from the rally that began at the end of september.
after pulling back to the point where it retraced roughly 50% of that previous rally, the s&p found its footing. garner believes it will keep climbing until it retests its early november highs at 2109, up about a percent from where it is now. if the s&p can break out from its highs at the beginning of the month, which is what garner things will happen, then she thinks this benchmark index can roar higher. how high? she would not be surprised if the s&p makes its way up to a new high of 2150 or even 2180. that's just over 4% from where we're going. you know what, you want that 4%. that's it. garner always has a hedge here. she says if she's wrong about
ceiling resistance, the s&p could pull back down to 2040. that's not that bad. and maybe 2000. here is the downside. this is the upside. you've got this versus that. i think that's significant. still, even if the s&p 500 can't break through the ceiling the first time around, garner thinks they'll get a second chance for a breakout before the end of the year. the rsi down here, that's an important momentum indicator. and the williams percentage, which we've looked at a lot of times, measures were in overbought or oversold territory, each of these indicators have been trending higher. neither one is in overbought territory yet. it has lots of room to run until we breaks through at 2100. this is the line in the sand. we get past that, and you'll say, why was i so negative? yeah. let me give you the bottom line.
the charts as interpreted by one of my favorite chartists, suggests that the s&p 500 could be ready to roar through the holiday season, which dovetails with the tendency. stick around, the lightning round is up next.[cough, cough] mike? janet? cough if you can hear me. don't even think about it. i took mucinex dm for my phlegmy cough. yeah...but what about mike? has that dry scratchy thing going on. guess what? wor on his ugh o. coug guess at? works on s ugh to what? stop!don't pull me! spoiler alert! she doesn't make it! only mucinex dm relieves bothweand dry coughs for 12 hours with twoedicines in one pill. start the relief. ditch the misery. let's end this. i take pictures of sunrises, but with my back pain i couldn't sleep and get up in time. then i found aleve pm. aleve pm is the only one to combine a safe sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve.
robert in arizona. >> caller: hi jim, wynn resorts. >> no, we're going to split the difference and hedge our bets, we're going to buy mgm which i really like. dave in massachusetts. dave? >> caller: what's your outlook for specialty products? >> pain. here's the problem. they got the a little cocky and these kinds of deals, whether it be this or any other rollups, i don't like it. lionel in oregon, where my daughter is. >> caller: good afternoon, jim. rite aid. >> you win either way. you win if the deal gets through or you win on earnings. now we're going to robert in texas. robert? >> caller: happy thanksgiving from the great state of texas, jim. >> oh, man, we've got to get back to texas. what's up?
comments from the saudi arabia oil minister's softening their policy on production, i'm wondering if you think now is the time to get into high quality stocks like matador. >> no, that's not high enough quality. i like occidental. i don't trust the saudis to do what's right for the american economy. let's go to chris in texas. >> caller: jimmy, energy transfer partners. >> almost pulled the trigger on that one. had sold some higher for the travel trust. down an 11% yield. candidly, kelsey warren has to come on and explain himself. why don't we take one more call. we'll go to m.j. in texas. >> caller: would you buy, hold, or sell express? >> i would buy lb, everyone was disappointed, it was nonsense, i said buy it. and that, ladies and gentlemen,
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year over year. down the road, profits will be there. a lot of people have been saying, yeah, sure, about palo alto, because it's not profitable. but i think some cash flow projections will ameliorate that concern. no wonder the stock jumped 10 points or 3.6% today. the ceo reminded us why we always want to invest in the best of breed in any business, including hack, because in the end that's the one that tends not to disappoint. why was palo alto able to deliver such phenomenal numbers? simple. i would bring in fire eye. the notion of cybersecurity has become less episodic, meaning less the function of specific
in target or sony, and more on a solution that companies are depending on all the time to prevent such intrusions. it seems to me that palo alto is the one that's winning in this environment. palo alto is pulling away from the competition. he mentions rival cisco by name, saying, and i quote, we continue to beat cisco handily quarter after quarter as we've done this quarter, unquote. i've never found it fruitful for ceos to call out ceos of other companies. the sheer number of new customers across so many sectors, that's what palo alto talked about last night on the
come. i can't speak for cisco. i want to reiterate that smaller players like imperva and cyberark are perfect fits for any big tech companies who want to expand in this business, particularly ibm, international buyback machines, which desperately needs the growth. cyber walk protects the keys to the entire digital kingdom. it needs a bigger home. this notion that ibm should bulk up to challenge palo alto is the firestorm of criticism i took on twitter for even suggesting it. it wasn't so much that people didn't think they were groundwater ideas, they seemed to like them, or even that they were too expensive. the critiques centered on how ibm would screw up the acquisitions, drive the good people who work there away.
i frankly question that negativity. i would remind people when you have a secular growth story this strong, you have to shell out some capital and copy of the brains behind the organization running things. ibm could absolutely make these potential takeovers work, they are just need to stop spending all their available cash on dividends and needless buybacks. one thing's for sure. we now know that the funk in cybersecurity stocks has nothing to do with the fundamentals which are on fire. palo alto is winning right now but there's room for everyone, including, yes, cisco and even ibm, if they want to try to expand on what may be the fastest growing information technologies in the universe right now. why don't you stick with cramer! mouth, then you'll know how uncomfortable it can be. but did you know that the lack of saliva can also lead to tooth decay and bad breath?
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