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tv   U.S. Farm Report  ABC  August 14, 2016 3:30am-4:31am CDT

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and here's what we're working on for you. usda hits the market with its latest take on yield... we have complete analysis. a viral call for change is causing a shake up among cherry growers... our farm journal report has both sides, and it's a battle over price and trade. i'm andrew mccrea. i'll take you to the birthplace of the first olympic basketball team. he wrote that they would shoot the ball much like a patron would dunk their doughnut into their coffee > it's a basketball team that defied the odds durng the great depression in this week's american countryside. and in john's world... we said goodbye to a good friend.
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year's corn crop report usda's yield forecast coming in at the very top end of trade guesses at a whopping 175 point 1. that's a 7 bushel jump from july. and total production is forecast to be up 11 percent from last year at a record 15 point 2 billion bushels. yes, i said 15. that's much higher than the average trade guess. and for soybeans, usda's yield estimate is 48 point 9, also higher than what the trade was thinking. and ed at a record, just over 4 billion bushels. that's a jump from both the july numer and the trade guess. checking out ending stocks, the 15 to 16 soybeans, to 33 million. the europeon union is investigating the potential merger of dow and nt. the e-u antitrust authority announcing this week it's exploring of hte merger would reduce competition within seed and crop protection. these investigatiosn are common in brussels, but may result in the companies selling some of their assets. meanwhile, brazilian
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agriculture ministry is seeking approval for u-s gmo corn imports. that's as the country's livestock and poultry producers are facing rising prices not enough feed. pro farmer reporting brazil's biosafety commission will meet next month to discuss possible approval, and under intense politcal pressure to get the measure passed. the process of impeaching former brazillian president dilma rousseff is entering its final stage. brazil's senate voited wednesday to move forward with trial, indicting her on charges of manipulating budgets. the trial is expected to take place this month. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather. mike, minnesota farmers got hammered with downpours this week. any big systems next week? thanks tyne i know it's either feast or famine unofrtunately and that's typically the case i don't see a good chance for getting there any big rains across minnesota but i do see some chances in some of the drought areas of the southeast will get to that a second you
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sippi it's also been expanding from southern portions of new england in two parts of western and northern ohio but let's go back a month in sales already drying the black hills area and westward obviously california and was a definitely dry in parts of the southeast that's been slowly expanding and the dryness from southern new england into ohio has been slowly expanding as well but most of the central and western corn belt not really having any big issues here is what goes on this week that a big storm system fact this is the remnants of that tropical like system that was moving along the gulf coast last week looks like that rides up along this front exactly were like those will put down some pretty heavy rains and there's a very good chance the southern half of the mississippi valley into a southeastern texas still warm across most other areas that northern system wont bring a lot of rain a little have some scattered showers and storms but again that that remnant system moving up through
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there and this system coming in the western canada on wednesday by friday is pushing some cooler air into the northwest and northern plains there could be some decent rains along a stationary front the southeast otherwise it's kind of hit miss across most of the country back in our next half hour the longer range outlook we laid out the numbers from the latest usda report. so, where do we go from here? tommy grisafi and ted
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e back to u s farm report on a marketing round table with me this week i have ted seifried of zaner ag hedge and tommi grisafi of advance traading manusda hit us with a major report today some big numbers when we look at the corn yield one seventy five point one bushels per acre that takes a fifteen point two billion bushel corn crop. do you think that's accurate ted you know i think the market is taking that number with a little bit of grain of salt. i mean yield is by taking an ear count which is not a kernal count so they'r enot pulling cobs it's just an ear countand then they're they're applying their statistical analysis of the crop conditions a seventy four percent good excellentwhen you put that together it comes up with seventy five for once every five point one national average yield that's a huge number however i think the trade feels that when they get out into the field to start actually pulling cobs and doing kernel counts which will happen with the september report that number
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to agree with that. there's been some private surveys out there for a very reputable companies one that i follow a very close they came out with one sixty six so there's still a lot of question marks on yield i think the fuel on the trees that we might have just seen the largest field estimate that we've seen. and if you go back to fourteen you had that same sort of thing with the usda got almost up to one seventy five and then had to reverse themselves back down showed up in in in the market reaction right. i mean ere down after the report we were down but then we closed higher in this corn marketvyou and i had talked we did that vidoe live and you said wht do you think and i said corn is only down sevent and it sounds weird to only say 7 on lear at a number like that in our experience could have easily taken us down and taken us to multi year lows woul dhave maybe gave given the funds a green light to sell more and that's when i had asked yu tyne, turn around your hat don't think like
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lock in multiple years of something for something so we typically work with you know i think more farmer marketing" but then we get that part to read it the end user the ethanol guy that this guy that i like you know what you realize what you could do here with this corn structure? touching corn's making money but you have to buy the corn at 2.99 in the cash market today all the ag stocks across the board for anyone taking corn turn into something he had a good day and is having a great ch ted is i mean when we look at this maybe we priced in the worst of it all already you know we got this big number it hit the market hard although we didn't close lower in corn but it hit the market hard and maybe we're going to hit these harvest lows early that we did that in fourteen the last time we had a record crop the one seventy one national average you know we always have this tendency to try to factor in a bigger yield than what the reality is. more often than not things are not as good as they
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again this year where we factor in a much bigger yield than what the reality is and then we when we come back down a reality we have a reaction higher we were able or we did wipe out a key support in the september corn but then we were able to rally back. what does that tell you what is that a sign of tommy? it could be a start of something but you still have to. we're grateful the market close higher but you still have to realize a nd so there's no need to get excited as if producers are making money" they've done nothing year to date they're losing less after day like that. it would be interesting a week i tend to think small as a small trader and then helping people market you you forget when these funds come in here they don't buy five or ten corn or hege two hundred thousand bushels for someone they're moving two million five million ten milliontwenty million bushels at a crack and so when they get in the pool and start swimming it makes a big splash. and so it would be
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back down it it has room to trade down. and that's what we talk about. let's get the worst at the way to trade this market now and start moving again we see a similar reaction and we we had a nice close and yet it seems like we might have made a low when it looked the worst. when all the articles out the news and press were look at these huge piles of wheat that was the load point in wheat possibly soybeans. yield on the big deal that forty eight point nine we're looking at a at just over four billion bushel crop i mean a huge crop there. do you think usda should have raised the yield this soon? considering we are seeing is good crop condition ratings yeah i mean that was pretty much is based on crop condition ratings. i think it was maybe a little early to be that aggressive on soybean yield but you know that's what the usda wants to give us. the impressive part about that is what was done on demand. you look especially old crop we've been having on a daily basis for the last two weeks we
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ay so when you look at this big soybean crop just shy of forty nine national average yieldover four billion bushels of production yet only a three hundred thirty million was a carryover for next yearthat's still relatively tight number stocks to useage number on that is going to be really tight. so you know i don't think that yield number don't think that justifies point because you just don't have you've got the demand to absorb it. and if that yield starts to come down and if demand is really there. i don't know. we've seen a lot of demand recently. where that ends up is a good question but that's leaving the man at the moment really feels quite strong. alright is there more risk in corn or soybeans at this point when we look at the numbers that we got from usda we're gonna
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_ welcome back, alright ommy were talking about soybeans what's your take right now only look at the soybean yield we look at these export numbers what does this soybean market look like moving forward totally different story than corn and wheat. so when you watch your markets and how you watch structure the marketsif you watched tickets if you watch it's really hard to watch your soybean ticket go up like it wheat make new lows. but to ted's point earlier on the show this is a different" you know we grow four billion bushels of beans we've sold half of them to china are gonna sell half of them half easier to put a nine ten dollar bean on a boat than three dollars cash corn if i was gonna buy something i'd buy a nine dollar item and ship it over take that protein and make oother protein. so the world is asking for our beans. they were
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g farmers is there any way you could plant more beans think you can make a profit doing it. it's like the mentaility of hte farmer they lvoe to trade corn they love the story but we have too much corn and that has nothing to with beans and beans wan tto go to $11, $12 over a south american problem there's no reason beans can't go up you'll have funds jump back in and then we'll have corn sitting there watching" you know trying to go up but we're always going to have this problem for a while that we have a little too much corn unless they change number from one seven five one seventy three one seventy one demand picks up and then you could see late of a nice pop in corn. when you look these price discrepancies do think there's more risk right now and corn will be tough question because i would i would tend to want to say corn however like we talked earlier you wonder if we just saw the biggest your number out there in you wonder if you know where we stand in corn today how much downside do we really have i know there's been a lot of talk about $2.80 cent corn but if we
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right now after the report we had today yet we closede higher on the day. so i am not saying that this higher close on the day means we put a bottom in on corn and we're going to go straight higher. you know this was a you know buy the rumor sell the fact sort of thing we could be under pressure again next week and maybe should be but i think the downside in corn at this point isis fairly limited the downside in soybeans if the demand number stays true i think is fairly limited but if that demand starts to fall part soy beans then you've got more risk so for those that are saying that the fact that we closed higher on corn means that this bear market's over. is that a little premature to say that? it's premature to say thatit's not necessarily untrue alrightwhat do you think? more risk in corn beans tommy, you know whenever i think of risque try to take my ego out of it and i look a the options market the border trade like aren't those guys the ultimate risk takers they let you buy it sell at any price. so the one thing i can see in corn is it's cheap to
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ee sixty calming hold and buy three fify hold on you can buy a 3.40 because they're so affordable and so i look at myself as like an insurance salesman and i can sell you insurance for this insurance for that it's really cheap right. it's to the point in the year when those beans were gone up fifty cents a day to ensure beans to the upside or downside was very expensive and i i looked at the bean market today and a put is still put still worth a lot of money so someone thinks beans dropped fifty the fact you can insure corn for as cheap as you can where the need to buy or sell it is appealing right now let's hope you insure little" the market rallies that would be a good friday seemed like a surprise but what are your key takeaways from this latest usda report ted well again i look at the yield numbers we saw today are the highest numbers there we're going to see and i looked
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yields for corn and in beans we beat it hte following year you know i wonder if we're gonna have a similar trade to what we saw in 14 where we really put a lot of pressure into the market going into harvest or getting near harvestbut then once we start getting into harvest maybe realizing it's not quite as good as it seem. and in 14 we rallied from three eighteen to just shy of four fifteen so we had a ninety five cent rally know for ge have that same sort of rally because we don't have the funds quite as short. early harvest or maybe a pre harvest bounce here in these markets could be heavy for another month or so but i'm looking for that bounce to make some sales your key takeaways from friday, tommy? it's impressive how the market digested those numbers what's still disappointing is that the american farmer held onto cash corn for a little too long. so whatever message was put out there through whatever reason it's hard to tell" but it's a big market. there's hundreds of
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last few weeks make new lows that's the grain the farmer was holding to get ready for this big crop arlight well we want to get yoru closing
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_ _ markets now, ted seifried, we'll start with you. yeah, i look at his report that we had on friday it was a initial
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than we were and we're having a very nice close. i think it's too early to say hey the lows are inout i think that sets the stage for something like that. maybe we've got the biggest numbers out of the way now all right maybe you're right. tommy when you go out meet with growers and they they show you their nice equipment their good land. the best seed they bought and then they plant that seed" and then they always end up shocked when they have this crop. i'm more of the mentality nowi'm a technology bull i believe that you use in the best d planting the best seed shocked every year when you end up with a record crop. if you don't have the crop that's why you have crop insurance and there's tools out there you can use and lows and make things a lot smoother on your farm operation.; technically ted one thing on cattleyeah i'm a little worried in cattle right now. we had a very hard time breaking up over key resistance in october cattle. it starts though we might be rolling over with cash trading unchanged it makes me a little nourvous
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appreciate it. john phipps joins us next
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t comes to his home phone, but it may be a glimpse into a larger trend. he explains in this weekend's john's world. after talking about it for a couple of years, we finally dropped our landline. like many of you jan and i were looking for budget savings. so we started noticing how much and with whom we used our house nswers were very little and robo- calls. it also didn't help that our service has been getting worse over the last few years with frequent outages and lots of line noise. but perhaps the tipping factor was discovering our cell phones could use our wi-fi systems to make calls. this is a big deal because we don't have great cell coverage to begin with and inside metal buildings like this cell phones are virtually
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fi systems were set up, all we have to do is enable wi-fi calling on our phones. unfortunately for jan it takes a 5s or better iphone to do so. it will require a later version android phone as well, but you are probably drooling for an upgrade anyway. so it's goodbye to some familiar fixtures around our home and scattered on furniture. and goodbye as well to a $40 per month bill. we had even been using corded phones antediluvian, so i won't miss those aren't-old-people-cute smiles either. the next challenge could be tougher. we're monitoring our tv watching now to see if we can lose our satellite service. it could be easier for us than most because we are not into sports, although that too is becoming more available on streaming services. that would be a big savings, because spending over $100 per month to watch a handful tv
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or amazon prime isn't something that's easy to justify with $3 corn. these two cost-cutting measures reinforce one thing for me. the future of communications, especially for farms and rural residents, is about good internet service. while it's no longer capitalized, it has never been
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from the studios of farm journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report. welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead over the next 30 minutes. it's a battle over trade and marketing orders causing a that's our farm journal report. if you're frustrated with market analysts who said you should have sold your crop months ago, you'll want to watch john's customer support. and to celebrate the olympics, we're off to an historic gym that was the home to the first u-s olmpic basketball team. now for the headlines, farmers and ranchers are still feeling the pinch from tighter margins, taking more
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of the pressure across farm country. three major federal reserve branches releasing the latest ag credit survey this week. farm income and farmland values remain under pressure, with ag credit conditions deterioriating futher. st louis fed officials say while quality farmland values dropped 6 point 4 percent in the first quarter, those same values only fell point 7 percent this past quarter. ranchland is down nearly 7 and half percent. but cropland cash rents crashing, pasture and ranchland is down nearly 21 percent. one baker says farmers in teh region are surving the decline in commodity prices due to conservative spending, improved efficiency and good crpo yields. meanwhile, the kc fed ag survey showing 75 percent of bankers report farm income falling from last year at this time that also means, demand for farm loans and loan renewals is climbing, while loan repayment is becoming tougher.
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irrigated and 5 percent for irrigated. ranchland is down 3 percent in that area. and in chicago, which covers the three i states, plus michigan and wisconsin, shows falling one percent from a year ago, but good land actually increased one percent from the first quarter to the second quarter. by state - iowa is down six percent from a year ago. but wisconsin climbed seven percent from last year.
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are slower and loan demand is significantly higher. if we do see a la nina this year, it may be a weak event. the national oceanic and atmospheric adminstration saying this week that more signs pointing to la nina arriving this fall, with a 55 to 60 percent chance it arrives this year. noaa says those same models suggest if la nina does form, it will be a weaker event. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the national forecast. mike, noaa thinks if we do see la nina, it will be a weak one. what do you think? thanks tyne that is absolutely what it's looking like it's looking like a head just barely a week la nina as we head into the fall and that changes things fairly dramatically ross the corn belt it looks like some cooler air could start to sneak in we'll show you that the thirty eight outlook in the meantime this week still hot across most of the country ut the northern tier states each one of these little ripples will bring a chance for thunderstorms well is some
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that's inging in the cooler air to the northwest as we head through the end of the week nd that will spread farther east into the northern plains and eventually the great lakes as we head nto this coming weekend all right let's take a look about thirty day outlook i'm going below normal now from about kansas city northward to the canadian border into outhern canada the southeast eastern seaboard still above normal and above normal west of the continental divide precipitation a large area of above normal the east coast southeast that could be some great news most of the planes into the southwest only below normal area and showing is in the far northwestern portions picture's worth a thousand words. a viral call for change is putting the tart cherry industry in the spotlight. you may have seen this picture - posted online by traverse city, michigan tart cherry grower - marc santucci. he posted a picture of some of his cherries being dumped, blaming it on the industry's marketing order and imports but there's two sides to
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shows us why some growers fear this call for change is may actually be clsoing the door on trust. you may have seen this picture - posted online by traverse city, michigan tart cherry grower - marc santucci - after dumping a percentage of his crop on the ground to rot - blaming the industry's marketing order and imports coming into the united states. however, the post is causing turbulance within the industry. this is what's left of the tart cherry crop michigan grower, marc santucci dumped.. "there was probably 1,000 pounds here at one point and time."> what was a massive pile, now just a thin layer of red. but the impact of his online post is still shaking the industry. not every producer is pleased with the attention. it's a disagreement ....centuring around the industry's rules for the crop. tart cherries growers have their own federal marketing
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market prices the next,"> that's why the processor is unable to accept all of the grower's crop under the order during years when yield or production increases. this year is one of those times. usda says production jumped nearly 40 percent this year. growers don't have to dispose the crop every year. santucci says this is the first year he's dumped his crop since 2009. santucci says its not just u.s. production rules that bother
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imported cherries and we were dumping cherries on the ground to try to prop up the price of cherries, i felt like like the little boy from holland putting our finger in the dike because if you don't control the whole market, you don't control any of the market. "> santucci says the industry should focus on the domestic market first since the united states already has to restrict inventory. and he's no stranger to global trade.. he was once an economist at the u.s. trade representative office of ag and commodity policy.
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eed to look at factors behind the imports. those are extremely low cost, governemnt supported imports that are coming into the industrial market. if we were going to compete against those imports on price, there would be nothing left for the farmer. no margin left over."> lacross says that would be worse for farmers than having to dump once in a while. e recognizes the import dressed. in an industry that includes lifelong farmers.. and 'new' producers finding their way
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life in the dirt, but i do consider myself a farmer now,"> both agree more discussion is needed .. a process already underway thanks to the spoils of a bumper year. i'm betsy jibben for u-s farm report thanks, betsy. up next, john phipps. why didn't we sell? well that's a 40 year old question. 40 year old question.
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40 year old question.
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lcome back. it's been a rollercoaster year for prices, and some viewers are frustrated with marketing advice. ?0john ved this timely e mail from joe platt. today i was listening to a market analysis at farm fest and in all they?0could talk about is how bad the markets areand how we should've sold earlier in the year when prices were goodcthat ?0thing that burns me is that i don't think these analysts realize that twenty cents higher could mean paying down a loan or fixing some thirty year old
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should have sold more earlier then why didn't they shot out sell or were they hoping for the next move up as well joe when i read this i have the same feeling but your comment prompted me to check back and see what our analysts were saying a?0first take a look at these price charts and because of them i pick the shows from the first three weeks of june and here's what i found that our analysts were saying on markets s that probably need to have some form of sales with calls but against it?0 or some form put underneath fpr a floor you can't not do anything here at these price?0 levels there is downside risk you cannot be complacent here and so it's not time to be ?0sitting around i absolutely if you're not looking at the floor and under this stuff?0 for making some type of cash sales you need to be looking at that now we're between?0 a rock and hard place when it comes to marketing and i would just sell and not look?0 back on what your
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prices now my point is not to rub salt in an open wound because i'm there with ya but rather ?0that there's a gap between hearing advice and taking and i also think that the ?0fact that even four fifty corn was barely enough to meet our cost this year?0 so we may have been extra reluctant to pull the trigger " but i don't think we have reason to say that nobody was telling us sell now thanks, john. when we come back, we're off to meet an olumpic basketball team who defied the ession. american countryside is next.?0 odds in the great depression. american countryside is next.?0
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odds in the great depression. american countryside is next.?0 odds in the great depression. american countryside is next.?0
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odds in the great depression. american countryside is next.?0 if you haven't been watching the olympics, you're missing out, including seeing the u-s men's basketball team in action. but it's been 80 years since the u-s put together it's first olympic basketball team. a start with an even more impressive finish. andrew mccrea takes us
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today you realize the important history behind this gym in downtown mcpherson kansas and is tied to the 1936 olympic games the rich hughes knows it well but u s olympic team was composed of the town team from mcpherson kansas were here at the court the court where the played the old gym still holds much of the charm of decades ago this balcony once held hundreds of spectators came to watch their hometown team there this is this is how it's been in 1934 1935 1936. in the nineteen twenties and thirties businesses might sponsor a team to publicize their products and services. in mcpherson it was the globe refiners coached by gene johnson considered by many to be the father of modern basketball. he developed the zone press fast break and dunking the basketball. mcpheresons players worked at the refinery for 4 dollars a day. while they loved the game, they were also glad to have a job
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for basketball in the olympics and a team single elimination tournament was held in madison square garden to select the players the new york sports writer said never seen a team throw down the ball like the team for mcpherson players came down through the ball down through the who what we know now as a dunk and that arthur daley who he had a hall of fame career as a sportswriter he was just starting out with the new york times and he wrote that they would shoot the ball much like a k their doughnut into their coffee and so that's working from that ever came from all but one player on the nineteen thirty six olympic team was from the two finalists in new york the mcpherson refiners and the universal studios team t this is pictured on the ss manhattan on the way over while the players had earned the right to compete, they had to get themselves to the ship that would take them to europe. times
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for them when if they went to the olympics. and vernon vaughn who had a new addition to his family and wanted to stay in the refinery business he was the 6th man for mcphereson and he gave up his chance at the olympics and ultimatedly a gold medal by staying back in mcpherson. "meanwhile universal studios did not want to support the nazzis by sending players to the olympics their players also lost their jobs for sailing to berlin but they later found work at fox studios when the team arrived in germany they learned that only seven players could suit up the play in any one game so the mcpherson players and those from universal studios remaied a unit and simply alternate and played each game the basketball organizers germany also had different ideas of how the game should be played if a player substituted they could not return. the games played outdoors on a clay tennis court wind affected shots and even worse was the weather for the
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of problems and the final scores only u s 19 and canada 8 but it could be explained because their plane in a mud pit "the u s won the first olympic basketball gold germany quickly urged rule changes to the game they also wanted the have a rule change and it was one point nine meter rule or for us in six foot 2 rule for everybody over six foot two would be prohibited from playing in the olympics while this may be a far cry from today's mba arenas it was the home gym for america's first olympic basketball team a team that went to germany and brought home the gold. traveling the countryside in mcpherson kansas i'm andrew mccrea thanks, andrew. how interesting. you can view more of andrew's stories when we come back, tractor tales
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tractor tales brought to
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southern georgia and we're here visiting a collector who has green blood loves john deere tractors but he has a soft spot for the occasional ford its a 501 ford workmaster i bought down in moltrie and it was all two pieces somebody had started rebuilding a motor it tore up and so the man it was rebuilding just cured it and had it sold and i bought it just pieces and put it back together and brought it home in painted and fixed it like this drove it down the driveway and the motor came tore up again were they half patched it so we got to rebuild a motor twice but it was not tall like this when i bought it and i bought a ferguson had these taller wheels on it for just parts and the ferguson ford has the same type rims on the back and so then the front axle you can flip it and get the height
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crop but all they did build one just like it it's a good tractor and now runs good and drives good there's little hard to get on i need to put me a step on it that hard to get up on it ah i have done everything on it other than paint the fenders and the hood on it i let a body shop do that for me but far as mechanical rebuilding the motor and"painting everything on the bottom part i do it. most time they grow like produce anything around florida and stuff where they grow sugarcane and stuff like that this area we did not farm with high crop tractors there's not many one ford tractors around in this area. you know i don't know when nobody else had won today's country church salute goes to the bethel community church just northwest of topeka, kansas. the congregation will celebrate their 100th anniversary in october. their first church was
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rebuilt church, with addons. they say the celebration is about remembering the past, celebrating the present and lookign to the future. our thanks to harold and betty weller for sharing their story. don't go anwyehre. we have viewer photos next.
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we have some rain and drught to is week. jeremy said he's out spraying this week. that's some of the cotton he had to replant. he says if they can get some rain this weekend, the crop could be average. the crop he had to replant looks good, but the earlier planted cotton is really hurtin from all those 100 degree days. from too dry to too wet... farmers in minnesota are in a similar boat that
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of reports anywhere from 8 inches to 13 inches of rain in one night. alan tells us just north of willmar, his lawn and crops are under water, as you can see here. and jeremy kosek took some pictures in renville county, that's just to the south of alan. he tooks some pictures of the aftermath of crops under water. michael morgan says that rain didn't make it to southeast wisconsin. he says they are about 7 inches behind on rain for the year. rice harvest is underway in louisiana, and as you can see, it's exhausting for luke. bridget sent us these pictures. she says luke enjoyed his nap, while his dad steven and grandpa roy were busy cutting rice. apparently this was taken the day before school started... had to get sleep while he could. as always, we want to hear from you, send comments to
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thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone. high strenth steel for high strenth dependability. the chvecy silverado ist he official news
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