tv U.S. Farm Report ABC September 4, 2016 3:30am-4:31am CDT
week, wheat prices hitting a 10 year low this week, but a drop in plantings could help prices find a floor. i caught up with national association of wheat growers vice president david schemm during farm progress show this week. he says looking at winter wheat seeding, conservatively, we could see a 5 percent reduction in acreage. but also weighing on prices is a strong u-s dollar hurting u-s wheat exports.
surveys members in 31 states...including 12 key states in the midwest, allendale projects the average corn yield at one-hundred-72-point six bushels an acre, producing 14-point nine billion bushels. that estimate is lower than the august projection from usda. and higher than profarmer's estimate which was released last week as part of the profarmer midwest crop tour. in soybeans - allendale calls for 48-and a half bushels an acre. usda's last projection was for 48-point-nine bushels. .profarmer puts its soy estimate at 49-point- three bushel. < asfar as corn, that december contract 3.08 is our downside target, as far as soybeans, our numbers right now i hate to say it but 8.88 for the november contract> despite those low price projections, the usda is revising its outlook for farm income. it's actually forecasting higher profits this year based on falling costs for feed, fuel and fertilizer. net farm income is expected to hit
but still 11 percent smaller than last year. after months of contreversy, president dilma rousseff is on her way out. the brazilian senate decided to impeach their first female president with a vote of 61 to 20. this is months in the works, after she was charged with manipulating the federal budget in an effort to conceal the nation's growing economic problems. those are the hoffman this week. cindi, it's labor day weekend, september is here, how's the next week shaping up. well tyne it really depends on where you are but we'll get to the maps in just a second let's start off with the u s drought monitor and we continue to see some slow improvement at least on the western fringes of the drought areas in the northeast and into the southeast. let's what show you what's happened over the past four weeks and this is what it's looked like a month ago we sat still had some drought conditions in western parts of
dryness all teh way at least all the way into the eastern parts of texas well as you get through the next few weeks " you're going to see that drought really dwindling into the eastern half of the country still some pretty dry areas there and we do have some problem spots still in part to the plains states and of course in the west united states now in this way we're going to have " have a system in the nation's middle section and it's not gonna be very quick to move so that's going to mean showers and thunderstorms for parts of the upper midwest and into the or monday. a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity across the gulf coast states but high pressure keeping a lot out of the corn belt on the dry side as we get in the wednesay again we don't see a lot of women with that front but we will start to see some more rain coming into the upper lakes and that rain stretching down into the southern plains their otherwise cool temperatures behind that by friday again it's not making a lot of movement but a slow gradual movement movement where we're going to see some more rains in parts of the northeast much of the central corn belt
at 2016 farm progress show is brought to you by channel. find your local channel seedsman at channel.com> welcome back to u s farm report will as promised we're here in the channel tent at farm progress show we just came off of crop tour week an interesting week i know matt you were on a crop tour but to see them come up with this final yield of one seventy points to angie it it seems that we haven't had much traded reaction since no well i think we saw the bulk of the trade reaction come out after the usda come out at one seventy five one i think the
into that report expecting a one seventy one so they have the pro farmer tour go out and come up with one seventy ish around there i think that's really where the trade is centered on they went in with that expectation we traded later on this level we got a higher number from the usda they kind of threw that out didn't change what the direction we're trading at that point and so now i think the fact that it didn't come out in a one sixty two were something way off from what they tus quo at this point but joe a pro farmer found were looking at a major reduction from what usda said in august but were still looking at a massive crop are it's a big crop it's a record crop it's just a question of how big this point and no matter the yield number if it's one seventy one seventy five or anything in between we still have too much corn and we still have a big
setup in terms of of carrying structure august september are gonna be bad months guys and that's where we're at right now this is a seasonal downturn in the market and you can expect this to continue if if it's going to be a normal type seasonal trend continued least until the first week of october if not longer than that so even though this pro former numbers a lot lower than usda doesn't necessarily mean higher prices at well i think the market kind of told us that last week every day we get a little bit of bullish news to come out in the ift lower in so i'm with angie you think they were probably a trade in the low seventies rain one seventy one seventy one i think their farm rest understand that like joe was saying this is a tough time i don't know what we can know what we can expect i can tell you this tyne if you're gonna pay for storage go on into january a you gotta understand pan twenty cents just to get an opportunity to see whether or not you're going to get a rally or not so i'm not one or pay a
to be moving it setting my floor under myself in then buying a strategy cheaper than the cost of storage to take a look at the market later on yes so what about these farmers out here angie that are getting ready to harvest may be some of them need to sell it right off the combine what can you do at this point with prices at this level i think they feel their main priorities go the space you can't you're not gonna leave the field because the only thing worse than cheap corn is is corn that's gone out of quality or condition sitting in the field so you want to worry about your space in and i think mat's right when it comes down to it is a deep pier storage plans cost you fifteen twenty cents you can spend that kind of money on a call in at least to that point you have your floor established by selling the cash and then take that the cost of that option even if you look at something maybe a touch cheaper and basically give yourself the opportunity to have capture a rally in sometime between march and may have talked a lot of guys about that at this point is if space is a concern or cash
establishing then you can take part of at least a little bit in the rally if it happens " joe what's your advice to some of these farmers that need to get rid of some other summer crop one of the things that's in your favor right now is the way that options are priced options both puts and calls a very very cheap the way that we measure option pricing is is a statistical volatility in its simplest terms " volatilities very very low right now so if you need to buy options whether it's a put option to cover the down side or the or call options cover the up had been volatility level spike when we had our little weather scare speculative scare whatever you want call it back in june but he drifted back now to levels that we were at back last spring when prices were very very low so that's one thing that's to your advantage right now matt is there any crop with this point that's paying you to store it for i think you know when you look at the corn market there's carry in the market so part of the reason why i say one put everything in the bin that i
will tell you on storage or drying its on bases i want to look to store so they carry in the market every time that that basis improves on his put money in my pocket all right so when could we see a bottom in this corn market will it not happen until we see a bottom in this wheat market that's the question
the 2016 farm progress show is brought to you by channel. find your local channel seedsman at channel dot com welcome back to u s farm report if you're just now joining us we're here at the farm progress show from the channel tent angie before the break i mentioned you know are we going to have to see a bottom in this wheat market before we see a bottom in corn
t comes to guessing about the weak market is and not yeah i mean at this point in time with the amount we that we have on hand in the areas that we have it on hand the exceptional supplies of wheat are in the southern plains mainly kansas oklahoma northern texas places like that and so corn and we did in those areas are competing as feed in globally their competing as feed so right now it's kind of it seems like a race to the bottom i like to see us establish a low side of the wheat and then what that'll do was allow buyers to and that's usually what you'll see happen with wie and i would love to say that will see that happen once we start on wheat acres and what we're looking out for winter wheat things of that nature but yeah at this point it's very difficult and it always has been very rarely will you see wheat rally without a corn or vise versa i mean it's it's just a kind of worked in him so that's where we're at right now a man in this wheat story it's an ugly one joe we look at a ten year low that we hit on friday were looking at out winter wheat acres and
is your thoughts on this this wheat market moving forward some money it's a money flow market is what it is and i think that in the wheat that the managed money in the hedge funds out there have a lot more influence than perhaps in some of these other markets it seems to go too far in every direction whenever the market moves rather that be flat price or spread that whatever it is where we're used to seeing extreme moves in the wheat market the last ten years really so i think the market probably goes to low right now i think we're gonna get to meextremes and may be the recovery will be equally as extreme and that's what we can hope for i guess switching crops matt soybeans like i mentioned you were on that pro farmer crop tour last week man they're some good looking soybeans that we are absolutely and i think relatively speaking and we were a little disappointed in the corn crop with as far bean crop goes i felt like we saw a lot of good beans you know in south dakota nebraska maybe you didn't see quite as good of bean is
had mud on our boots come out every field that we were in this year i don't know that we have quite as much moisture but especially in illinois where the pod counts are super high there's no question in august weather's been conducive to a big bean yield so i think that the national bean yield could push fifty in the long run i think illinois will end up over sixty city still think we have a lot of downside risk in this bean marketi think that the most the producers i talked to have beans that are good enough yielding that they can make money if they sell beans still now today i don't know if it's going to go up down or sideways but what i do know is if i can make money i'd better be locked in some of them know it's an ugly picture when we look at these prices but the good thing is hopefully it will generate more demand how does our demand picture look at this point angie i think it looks great i mean if if you were alone you went to any meetings this past winter you heard the doom and gloom stories surrounding demand and that's completely turned a one eighty at this point in time
been really impressed with is the inspections the shipments on exports that we've seen everyone thought we werent going to be able to keep up with the pace that we needed in order to get the export sales commitments covered and we we do appears though will be able to do that if not if not hit it will be very very close so we have the capacity of the ability to ship a lot and quickly so this this fall i think that'll help support some bases levels in areas that may not have as much the toledo area especially it was there this past week and o you you should see some support in that and everyday it seems like we get another new export sale announcement from unknown or china on the soybean side and in corn exports have been strong as well export picture looks good now but what about south america what if we see more acres down there what we see more competition from south america this year what is that do export picture com march that that timeframe south america's not gonna help us to fix this glut
percent more corn acres this year in all likelihood they're going to increase soybean acreage by one or two percent so they're in a constant state of expansion their crop problems there last year prices of corn especially are better so they're they're not going help us out and if they end up with a good crop come february march you can certainly expect to see our demand they off a little bit not much time but we have some cattle producers in the crowd today do you think right now cattle was priced to cheap think the cattle market is went too far to the downside and i think moving on out farther in the end of the towards the end of the year i think numbers are going to support a little bit of a rally in the cattle markets are not going to get in a panic mode just here but it sounds like we're gonna have to hold on for a little bit your not talking til the end f the year yeah i think you're gonna have to wait two or three months before he see better cattle prices across the board all right well what are their closing thoughts take
setzer what are you're closing thoughts my main thing when it comes to looking at this wondering what you're gonna do is you have to take into consideration your space constraints and your local market looks like if you know that everyone around you is harvesting a big crop in here expecting a big crop you better speak for space in your local elevator otherwise you're gonna end up sad then the second leak cash flow keep that in mind so you have to make sure they got enough money to pay your bills as you work through the end of the year and then keep in ation what your gonna end up spending on storage in what you're gonna try to achieve if you are in a tore it and look it a way to maybe do a little bit better than that not waste money alright joe vaclavick with a harvest is creeping up this is a bad time of year to do any grain marketing it always has been in the year with big crops this is just the time or the flat prices is not and help me out focus on the decisions that may be in your favor some of the carry in these markets corn market especially at a nice carry structure if there's a
matt bennett " i want to fill every bin that i've got with corn i don't want to pay for a commercial storage and i want to go ahead and some might be especially i know that if the yield levels that i'm expecting i can make money all right thank you all so much for being here stay with us john phipps joins
anticipated that for key machines like the combine, but some of the upgrades look like they are going to be delivered at the last second. meanwhile, older semi-reliable equipment like this drying bin have mysteriously developed faults thanks to corrosion and especially mice. i thought about trouble-shooting this thirty plus year old setup earlier this summer, but experience has shown months or so until we use it. this phenomenon is so common, i tend to be amazed when a machine put away in good order actually fires up and runs without faults. batteries are an expected weak point, although the new practice of including or adding a master cutoff switch
the problems that year old gasoline and ethanol can create in about any small engine. most of you probably do a better job of starting earlier before the machine is needed to get it in functioning order. also, i always imagine i'd be working in the cooler weather of late summer and early fall. that doesn't seem to be the case this year. while i suppose my problem is mostly laziness and procrastination, waiting until the last minute has one bonus. it certainly fills in that antsy time between the end of summer and hitting the fields. instead of sampling fields twice a day and driving the countryside looking for early competitors, i have short-circuits to find, sensors to calibrate, and flat
farm report this labor day weekend. we have much more ahead over the next 30 minutes. cleared for takeoff. our farm journal report looks into how eased drone regs will impact you. it's another discussion on input costs. john is back with round 2. and a popular world's fair that some credit for inventing ice cream. andrew mccrea takes us back in time to the st louis world's fair now for the headlines, john deere's planned acquisition of precision planting just ran into a major legal roadblock, with the d-o-j blocking the potential merger. the department of justice sued deere over the deal, citing concerns about lack of competition. the doj says both companies account for at least 86 percent of u-s sales of
to decide whether to block the deal. in november, deere and the climate corporation, a subsidiary of monsanto company, announced they had signed an agreement for deere to buy the precision planting equipment business. government regulators then launched an anti- trust review, leading to this week's lawsuit. in a joint statement, deere and climate corp. said "d-o-j's allegations about the competitive impacts of the transaction are misguided and the companies intend to defend the transaction vigorously against those allegations," the statement said. "deere has long been focused on helping american farmers become more efficient and productive so that they can remain globally competitive. the proposed acquisition benefits farmers by accelerating the development and delivery of new precision equipment solutions in more merger news, just this week, canadian fertilizer giants agrium and potash corp of saskatchewan say they're in the early stages of merger talks. the potential deal would consolidate 60 percent of north amercia's potation production
icing power. while both caution a decision is yet to be made, the merger would create company valued at 28 billion dollars. lower farm incomes and commodity prices continue to weigh on business margins for both companies. california could become the first state to require farmers pay ovetime for field workers and fruit pickers. it's a highly debated bill, now in the hands of the state's governor. the bill approved by the state legislature would phase in overtime pay for farmerworkers who work more than 8 hours a day or 40 hours a week. california employers are already mandated to pay time-and-a half to farmworkers after 10 hours in a day or 60 hours in a week. opponents of the bill say the added costs will require employers to cut workers' hours. we spoke to a california dairy producer this week who says this, coupled with an expected hike in the minimum wage, its going to have a major impact on farm families in the state.
9. the governor has not said if he will sign the measure. meanwhile, presidential hopeful donald trump could be loosening his stance on immigration. he made a trip to mexico this week, meeting with the country's president. trump says it wasn't a meetng to negotiate, instead just to talk. a big rub is this so called wall trump is threatening to build. after the talks, mexico's president says if one is built, they won't be paying for it. after the meeting, trump told supporters there will be no amnesty, as he'll enforce a zero tolerance policy. trump also said the united states welcomes
properly vetted. the trans pacific partnership may be off the table. the trade deal between 12 countries lining the pacific rim took a major blow last week when senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said the senate won't even take up tpp this year. while major ag groups remain hopeful t-p- can still get passed this year, the odds look slim.
ws for some folks as we get to that thirty day outlooks let's start with the jet stream we have our ridge in the eastern part of the country a big trough in the west and so we've been seeing some cooler temperatures there as we head through the week with him see that rich continuing a lot of the eastern united states cannot not much change and we in the last half hour showed you a front that was a making a lot of movement you could see the jet stream is doing the same thing so we're gonna keep those temperatures on the warm side for most of the week at in the eastern part of the country cooler for folks out in the west we'll finally see some movement of that trough is we get into this weekend so overall the next thirty days are going to be on the warm side for much of the eastern part of the country and we do see a little bit of warm weather in parts of the southwest united states as well. precipitation lots of folks really paying attention to this. we're looking at a below normal from the northeast into a good chunk of the corn belt and then above normal though for much of the upper midwest and
u-a-v's, or drones have taken the country by storm. so much so that the f-a-a built a registry and set guidelines for their use. but starting this week it's easing some restrictions. changes that could have big benefits for the future of the industry. nats.. flying in the drought-stricken west, where every drop of water counts, advanced drone technology is helping some california farmers save the scarce resource. "we invest in these really expensive drip systems that save us 40 to 50 percent on the water that we used to use. > a drone equipped with a thermal camera is helping find leaks in that buried drip line. michael estimates this could save enough water to sustain 550 families of four in only a year's time.
relaxed the rules on commercial drones, a move that could spur greater use of such aircraft on american farms. it lets operators apply for waivers to operate at night, beyond line of sight, above 400 feet and other specific types of operation. kansas state university's polytechnic campus has teamed up with precision hawk, a leading drone data and safety company, to investigate how a pilot can safely operate a u-a-v when it is flying outside of their line of sight... "in order for us to include uavs in the national airspace, i mean think this is something that the faa wants, this is something that the industry wants, it's something that consumers want, but in order to be able to do that we need to be able to give them the quantitative results that allow them to make risk-based decisions. > the experiments will calculate levels of safety by testing a u-a-v operator's abilities, such as pilot response time and decisions making taken when confronted by
fertilizer, seed, etc. has not. find out why no price drop has occurred in the big companies, we do not have enough competition out there for a fair price for fertilizer, seed, etc." as i mentioned cash rents are the focus because other input costs have shown strong pricing power, just as doug indicates in his email. when prices go up, sellers point to their costs, such as the price of oil as the reason, but that is largely just a public relations camouflage. in a relatively unregulated market, all sellers, including farmers, charge not according to their costs, but as much as the market will bear. as long as farmers keep buying seed and fertilizer, no supplier has any reason to lower prices, regardless of their costs like oil. the point is to maximize profit. doug is right that fewer suppliers and remarkably uniform industry pricing contribute powerfully to the ability of vendors to avoid
a fair price is for any product, so we let the actions of willing buyers and sellers decide. nonetheless, there are ominous signs that our entire value chain, from landowners to retailers is facing an unprecedented problem with costs at every level. consider this recent news from bhp billiton, a gigantic mining company that was over half done with a huge 2.6-billion-dollar potash mine expansion. bhp which lost a eds about 400 dollars per ton to just break even on potash. current prices are less than two hundred. with three- dollar or less corn, even $400 is more than most growers can pay. this same situation is replicated all across agriculture from machinery to seed: all of us have much higher breakeven costs than just a few years ago. the big commodity boom not only generated a lot of
will not come down easily or smoothly. it also means that until the supply and demand for commodities get closer together, the red ink will spread out to cover virtually all the businesses in agriculture. thanks, john. and send your questions or comments to john at mailbag at u-s farm report dot com. up next, we head to the birthplace of the worlds fair in
a tranquil peice of land in the middle of a city. roll back the clock to 1904 and you would have found one of the busiest and biggest events on the planet. this was the site of the world's fair and much more! the amazing thing about it was that they ended up with about sixteen palaces all off which were temporary all except one the are palace which was then known as the palace of fine arts, and now is our st. louis art museum, was the only building that was permanent because nobody would lone their precious works of art from all around the world to a building made of wood st. louis was intent on making their version of the fair bigger than chicago's in 1893. planners secured over 1200 acres, much of which is today's forrest park, to become a showcase of the latest and greatest on earth. there were a lot of firsts at these turn of the century fairs if you look at some of the photographs you if you look at some of the photographs you see people understanding for the first time an x-ray machine ,
became something that we depend on today. finger printing was a interesting new concept but just as st. louis was set to take the world stage, they realized their rivals in chicago might, in fact, steal part of the international attention. they realized that the olympics that were originality awarded to chicago were going to be competition with st. louis so they went to the olympic committee and the said that the olympics really should also be in st. louis the olympic committee agreed, taking the games from chicago and awarding them to st. louis in 1904. but what seemed to be a good idea, in reality turned the olympics into a sideshow compared to the months long fair. the marathon was perhaps most interesting and an example of the spectacle the games became. 31 competitors began the race, but only 14 finished. several of the competitors had never run a marathon before two men from the south africa exhibit at the world's fair even showed up to
turns out that lorz had actually hitched a ride on a car for 11 miles before hoping off and running the last part of the race he comes into the stadium sort of relived and looking fairly good and he lets the charade go on for a while and finally fesses up thomas hicks actually won the race. his time is the slowest marathon gold on record, nearly a half hour slower than the next closest winning time. some give credit to the 04 world's fair for inventing things like the ice them, but rather popularized the new ideas. these events were a place where a century ago people to see things they could only imagine. the missouri history museum stands on the spot on that once grand entrance to the 1904 worlds fair and the third olympic games. this is still a place where you can come to see the exhibits and artifacts of an event that truly showed the latest and greatest of the world. traveling the countryside
y pete is the most trusted name in equipment. welcome back to tractor tales folks. this week's classic iron is a ferguson 35 from west virginia. this 1955 ferguson t-o 35 was built from 1954 to 1960 in detroit michigan. owner rick miller doesn't farm but he loves using this 1955 ferguson around his place. got a nineteen fifty five massey harris ferguson to thirty five i bought this tractor from my uncle about nineteen ninety seven and was pretty rough shape and that drove for a while until it wouldn't run then i took it to rebuild the engine and it come out of the garage looking like
like that they was red silver but uh had always stuck in my mind a man i just like that little tractor i'm no farmer but i've got a brush hog and a finish mower and a blade or use it and outside that sits in the barn take it to shows had rebuilt the engine which i didn't know much about rebuilding the engine to time and i wasn't aware the continental engines the bloc would crack in a them undoubtedly my block was cracked what i found out later on so then two years ago i rebuilt it again had the bolt we bolted the block together put six bolts in it bolted it together on the old timer told me how do you that an intake we put it back together and runs good now will this stuff is not original it's the same as like the front panel if their below the grill i didn't have one of them i found a piece of one and a buddy of mine worked in a sheet metal shop and we kind of rolled metal and put it in their and welded together patch it up so it looks the best we could make it y tractor that i really have done this show use it a little bit. today's country church salute goes to the first
joined the first christian church in town, now called the presbyterian disciples church. both churches have ties back to lexinogton kentucky, as that's where their founders orginiated. and after the civil war, robert e lee's chief administrative assistance served twice ast the pastor of the presbyetrian church. a big thanks to john morgan for sharing their story. as always we want to learn about your home church as well... salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us - cropwach is next.
fields on our way to boone, iowa for hte farm progress show this week. my good friend wayne is just west of des moines. he says top end bean yields are slipping daily due to s-d-s. he thinks more than 70 percent death in some places. speaking of farm progress, it's always so nice to meet viewers in person at these shows, such is the case with bryce piper. his dad cody snapped this picture of bryce, we're along side legend radio host mike adams and matt jungmann of farm progress. thanks for stopping to say hi!! as always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag-at-u-s-farm-report-dot- com or check us out on facebook and twitter. for all of us at u-s farm report, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone and enjoy your labor day everyone. high strength steel for high strength
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