tv U.S. Farm Report ABC September 11, 2016 3:30am-4:30am CDT
from the studios of farm journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report.> welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you over the next hour. bayer and monsanto are at it again, upping the ante, entering into round 3 of major merger. as farmers face the grim reality of commodity prices, reality is setting in... < there's no question there's going to be red ink> our farm journal report talks to one ag banker who has advice on how farmers can pull through. and in john's world... now for the market
of legislation to address. it's still un-certain whether a multi-nation trade pact will be on the agenda. lawmakers returned to the nation's capitol while president obama spent the week in asia at the g-20 summit. many of his comments revolved around trade and the trans pacific partnership. the president says he'll urge congress to pass the trans pacific partnership once the "noise" of the election season is over. " nothing is easy in the us congress right now. maybe there was a time when it was, but i have not seen it. it sure has not been easy since i have been president. but eventually we will get it done." > senate gop leader mitch mcconnell said last month that t-p-p would not get a vote in the current session. one of our major trading partners and the world's biggest buyer of soybeans, says it's planning to increase it's own production over the next four years. china planning to
hopping to eventually reduce imports and balance it's own domestic stocks. ethanol exports skyrocketting in june... jumping 49 percent over june's shipments. that marks the highest monthly total since april. meanwhile, u-s ethanol production declined for a third straight week. also gaining exporot momentum in july, red meat. the u-s meat export federation says the amount of beef exported in july, with japan and south korea carrying the weight. shipments to korea alone jumped up 37 percent. due to lower beef prices, the value of shipments actually dropped. and turning to pork, those exports increased 8 percent in july while the value of shipments rose 11 percent. cattle markets feeling the pressure this week . october live cattle futures at cme dipping below the dollar mark tuesday. the prices is down roughly ten dollars over the past 3 weeks. cash fed cattle prices also dropping on the large increase in slaughter
percent higher than last year. analysts say right now these cattle markets are struggling to find bottom. "we're getting awfully cheap here into some multi-month, multi year lows in some instances. and picking a bottom in the bear market is always difficult business." on the retail side, markets are still trying to evaluate how much beef hit the grill over the labor day weekend. the latest crop progress report shows 18 percent of the nation's corn crop is now mature. that's 0) the five year averge. 74 percent is still good to excellent...that's down a tick from last week. on the soybean side, 12 percent of acres are dropping leaves....right on pace with the five year average. conditions holding this week according to usda-- still 73 percent good to excellent. if you were waiting on la nina you better just keep on waiting. noaa officially canceling its prediction of a la nina weather event this fall. instead it says models point to
week coming up usda has wasde. do you think we're going to see a big change in the yield coming up next week bob, i think the expectation, the hope by the trade is it's one seventy one one seventy two and usda was all wet with the august numbers seems like but i fear that everybody is too conservative in their yields and we're going to trend towards one seventy three one seventy four when a corn yield will be down just a little but the real question will be beans and i think bean yields will be up and so bean yields are bearish, i think balance pulls corn with harvest pressure, so basis widens, caries increase and the market softens, probably not make new lows but doesn't rally until we get into. now rich allenlendale does their own survey on yields, and any you guys have some really impressive yields out there, a little bit different
allendale's mindset right now right now we've got yielsd sitting at one seventy two point six was our twenty seventh annual survey number but as far as the general trade discussion and in gentle key point on yields we do feel it's actually very close what was he for the final numbers well both the september and a final report here our big concern actually is not too much on your side here is actually was going do with these with these old crop supplies issues as well espcially on bean.s yeah, not moving to old crop jsut yet, still talking about yield, if we do see usda knock that corn in price since the trade has their own number in mind? i think the market has rallied here since the two three fifteen december corn low we got recognize we've had a decent bounce over the last ten days so i think a lot of the one seventy two is factored in if there's going be surprises, usda does not adjust until the final number, historially y looked in august to defy number over last twenty years, 11 out of hte last
report referenced, statistically, so the odds favor corn crops getting bigger but do you think that and have no i think 175 is probably top end, i think they were probably really the 172 is a good number, and so we're kind of splitting hairs here how much is factored in i don't think one can like go fifteen higher but i think corn could go 10 lower not what i wanted to hear you have if you only have like a one bushel beans to me or hearing of some impressive soybean fields out there mean so it can always surprise you you know with august weather but you know that that forty nine that we that we had it lately do you think that will see soybean yield come above that fifty bushels per acre mark i really don't i think anywhere from forty eight point two to roughly forty nine point seven i think all those yields are just fine to be honest with you i don't care i think the issue right now is really solve
market wants to see first of all and of course so we can address the longer term issues for the world soybean issues where seeing two years of tightening and stock to useage ratio so the usda that have to shift in this next report for us to actually have a bullish reaction in price nothing? i mean is there anything that that that can be done at this point that would trigger a bullish reaction? the market feels rather twenty two seventy million bushel increase in terms of old crops soybean exports and that certainly can have the numbers are certainly being that howerver, let's be very clear here all our people need to realize that were dropped crush a little bigger domestic crush on monday's report more importantly is we still have a looming threat of the two thousand fifteen production real vision coming and they'll be singing on the september thirty the grain stox report, so we've had a 50 cent rally, okay, the funds have done a lot a long liquidation so i think the market's balanced, it's a little overpriced going into this report for its own health and so the risk on beans is correcting it. to get to your original question how bullish? i think you'd have to take a bushel off the august report to say it's bullish and hte bottoms in and we're taking off but if
o get on even as you get a lot of august but we've had almost optimal growth for what beans and awe goes with that beautiful rains weather has been made, beans are so tall they've fallen over, because they have so many blooms, so i lean towards more towards a fifty two fifty one bush and so my yield is going to neutralize the exports little carryover stays of three thirty three forty four rich i know some the other question on another piece that's that's questionable in usda's numbers is this feed and residual use do you think that maybe usda has been too aggressive on that number well, let's be honest here, their most recent numbers the most recent mine said they're not really pushing any big any big demand change with the most recent supply change and so usda's problems maybe we can argue made
he export side maybe a little bit here i don't expect a revision this month's report by the big picture, our issue is trying to garner demand, and there's not big demand right now we need to talk about demand, coming up, plus nooa now says la nina, forget about it, we're not going to have it this year, so what impact could that have on next
welcome back well a lot of our viewers now are busy harvesting are just starting harvesting so now that we see some of this crop coming out of the field if some of these farmers need to sell now what strategies should they use at this point but will the markets got it thing all carry the back end is premium to the front and wheat has had a big carry you know we had big harevst and we had the break in put big carry in the wheat market and corn had been carrying and beans are inverted the front is premium so the
fear is guys have i have a lot of guys on the traditional hedgers lot of guys have taken off the all their hedges i think a lot of hedges have been taken off and put corn in the ban unpriced and hoping for a seasonal bounce from now till next year and i would caution you against the january february march time period of brazil has a good crop no weather you you probably be remaking yourselves in late november december dump on it and then it won a re on it wait til february. also this coming out what could we find out about demand in that report rich this will give us some clues in terms of what's going on what can a confusing for us usda does a survey of grain stocks which is done actually as of right now they're compiling numbers as we speak and theyre gonna make demand i should say that make the production numbers fit the overall numbers to make that final ending stock work so we can talk about exciting demand, especially in old crop beans which is certainly true
thirtieth reports of bottom line i don't think we're going to be seeing any major change in terms of soybean stocks and from the core numbers yeah, you're gonna drop down maybe on this report from two for two maybe two point three billion bushels but i don't think it's changed the fundamental story of this market all year while one competitors that we need to be looking at as is south america what he thinks a acreage, how do you think that is going to pan out down south this year it's says that you got to decide right now i want play next year ago to give yourself
time in june in april may june july i think anything south of four dollars four to four ten maybe for twenty with a weather problem but in about four dollars in corn looks long ways away the only good thing even say is if we were all seventeen is a very sour year and prices see lower levels next fall banker pressure will take acres out of production create you see then we set the solo cds were great bull market switching gears real quick cattle market that look too pretty this week
this controversial bullgance in supply, just kind of like last year. and this coming week were gonna see slaughter push up to over 620,000 head. far over the summer peak of only 608. so in and get this bottom low in now this month. all right, thank you rich. well, harvest is under way, what should you be thinking about? were gonna get their closing thoughts when we come back. receive a free trial of the daily market letter and gain
back, markets now, bob seasonly , it's time to put away the bear to prepare for fall low. feed buyers should be retained in september first of october should be getting their april may june july feed needs locked in and should be getting your calls bought so you can be a seller of next year playing very aggressively and work on your reducing is no cost and batten
an we are right now, yeah thanks bob rich same type of tory think in generally good all price in this idea of a one big push lower, 3.08 in corn is what we're talking about 8.88 in nov soybeans, so we're still bearish shortterm. but after this point, especially on the oil seed with two years in a row declining stocks to use on a world basis actually, i'm going to bet that soybeans will be the ones which leads us higher in 2017. for right now though i certainly work on pricing around three fifty thank you both, stay with us john phipps joins us when we
fiction fans on our farm, but the recent press coverage of an autonomous concept tractor by cnh became a hot topic on our farm recently. i don't think we were the only farmers to take notice. there have been self-driving tractor systems for a few years, but until you see a tractor without a cab, i don't think the implications of truly autonomous machinery sinks in. skepticism was immediate and robust. what if the machine s up? how about transporting down the road? what about liability insurance? but the truth is, between an all-out push by technology companies from google to tesla, this is not a startling or cutting edge development. in fact, i think such automation could happen even faster on farms than roads. setting that debate aside, looking at this working prototype instead of a computer- generated depiction, should make
implications from this glimpse of a likely future. the in-field video is electrifying enough, but the depiction of a remote operator setup rang a bell with me. see if you notice any comparison with this operator station on our newest submarines or this control system for military drones. my point is what the tractor video shows is not wild fantasy but technology already in use for many years for similar applications. but here's the real kicker for me. who could this remote operator be, and where could the operator be located? the answers are practically anyone and anywhere. what if your off- farm sibling could take a late tillage shift monitoring from his condo in downtown chicago? suddenly mobility or strength problems aren't an issue. my point is, these tractor advances will instigate many changes, but the one of the biggest in my opinion
we have much more ahead this weekend on u-s farm report. as profits get tighter, and lending becomes more cautious , our farm journal report looks at the ag crunch across the u-s. what if everone decreased their acreage by 10 percent? that's customer support and in baxter black, it's the story of a curious cow now for the headlines, bayer back with ort to take over monsanto. bayer raising it's offer by two percent this week... now it sits at 127 dollars and 50 cents a share. remember, bayer's first offer was 122 dollars a share in may, followed by 125 dollars in july. monsanto has yet to accept or reject the offer, saying the ongoing discussions are constructive, but also saying it's evaluating other options. the company didn't comment on
the china national chemical corporation has commitments from lenders on a $12.7 billion loan package to help secure its purchase of syngenta. chemchina acquired the financing from 17 different banks all together. the agreement to buy syngenta for $43 billion came earlier this year in a deal that would make it the largest supplier of pesticides and ag chemicals in the world. the european union is suspending its review of the dow dupont merger, which means the approval process will take even longer. e-u's antitrust regulator says neither company has submitted important information the e-u asked for as part of its review. fire broke out at a usda building in maryland this week. federal agents say there are no initial signs of a criminal intent. that news from a spokesman at the atf. the storage shed that burned on tuesday was at a usda complex in beltsville, a washington suburb. it was one of
about two hours to put out...no injuries were reported. which court should hear challenges to the epa's wotus rule? that's a question farm groups want answered by the u.s. supreme court. the organizations want the high court to review whether or not the sixth circuit court of appeals is the right venue to hear challenges to the rule. earlier, the sixth circuit court dismissed legal challenges that said federal district court is the right place to hear the case not an appeals courtafbf's ellen s the time for the supreme court to resolve the confusion among lower courts as to where jurisdiction lies," new data from the department of agriculture shows the majority of watermelons consumed in the u.s. are produced domestically, but imports are growing rapidly. usda says watermelon imports accounted for 1.5 billion pounds, or a third of domestic use in 2015, up from 11 percent
imports can be attributed to the decline watermelon acreage in the united states. usda says watermelon acreage has dropped near 50 percent in the last 25 years. about a 150 cowboys from feedlots across the plains made their way to dodge city kansas this week. the two-day educational program talked a lot about animal care, handling and husbandry. one of the biggest changes coming to the industry is the veterinarian feed directive. how much are you willing to pay for what some are calling the world's best steak?
that's what blackmore wagyu steaks from austrailia are going for in an l-a buter shop. it's offered at a butcher shop and restearaunt owned by celebrity chef curtis stone. he's the only chef offering the rare australlian steaks in the u-s. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman is back with us for a longer range look at weather. mike, these next 30 days are really key for farmers trying to get their crop out. thanks, tyne overall i think it's looking ok now there will be some times of rains so a watch those obviously that will slow down the harvest but as you can see on the jet stream as we ehead through this week we have another trough for digging in across the central northern plains into the great lakes in the northeast by wednesday with a cutoff piece kind of hanging out the southwest. that'll cook temps a bit in those areas compared to what you've seen as we head
rockies by the end of the week and then, you can see, as we head into the weekend everything can get a little cooler as is typical as we head through september. so my 30 day outlook for temps, rs above normal east of the mississippi valley down into the southeast most of the northeast as well. tyne. thanks, mike. three dollar corn is taking it's toll on producers' moods. purdue university - along with the cme- just releasing their monthly ag economy barometer. based on a monthly survey of 400 farmers across the u-s, the barometer index fell to 95. that's down from one-hundred-12 in july. purdue economists say the 17-point drop from july to august was the
2015. in this farm journal report, we take a trip to southern illinois to see first-hand from one ag banker, why despite the headwinds, he's still bullish on agriculture. brice allard marks the 5th generation on this southern illinois farm. working along side his dad wayde for 15 years, 2016 is proving to be a challenge.
while input costs remain more fixed. the latest rural mainstreet index, which surveys rural bankers from across the midwest, shows one in five crop farmers, or nearly 20 (19.5) percent, to suffer negative cash flows in 2016.. hoskins says those are sobering numebnrs, and precisely why inputs will have to drop
ive reduction in cash rents. in southern illinois, more reasonable cash rents aren't a reality yet. , while there are talks of some producers walking away when the landlord won't budge, it's much easier said than done. at wayde's farm, while some inputs are out of his control, he's trying to do what he can to spend less and hopefully weather these lower prices. < maybe going to a
farmers. and for the allards, challenges are stacking up, but a promsing crop on the horizon, his helping him push through. hoskins says don't let the grim outlook on prices blind you from good opportunities. he says there are good deals out there on equipment, or even splitting a lease with a neighbor. he says that can set you up for success down the road. next up, we'll hear from john phipps.
john's had some pretty intense questions lately. so, it's going to take him a few weeks to get through them all. john. one of the many wonderful things about getting older is seeing some problems for a second, or third or more time. you also see some suggested answers repeatedly. the last few months i have talked often about the economic
iliar responses. for example, i have received multiple emails with this type of solution: "what would be the effect if all farmers voluntarily decreased their acres planted by 10%? they would spend less on everything from seed, fuel, machinery repair, etc. the machinery would last longer, interest on borrowed money would be less, etc. wouldn't the prices on corn and soy and any designated crops go up? i know there have been instances where dairymen dumped achieve the goal of increasing income?" that's from neal vanderwaal. another well-known solution to hard times in ag is parity pricing. this note from jeff ballard in litchfield, minnesota. "the u.s. government has been publishing parity pricing of farm commodities for decades. set in law that no commodity could be bought or sold below the parity price.
her problem associated with the farm bill, crop insurance, price supports etc. top it off with a graduated land tax and things will really head in the right direction." both of these ideas deserve fuller comment, so i'll take them one at a time in the next two weeks. overall, i am suspicious of seemingly straightforward solutions to complicated economic problems. i am reminded of the words of h. l mencken, "for every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong". i will outline why these ideas are in my opinion, problematic. in the meantime, gentlemen, send me an address - you might get your mug by christmas. thanks, john. send your questions or comments to john at mailbag at u-s farm report dot com. up next, we'll
this week we head out west to hear another ranch tale from baxter black. this is the story of a curious cow who lived on mr. marvin's farm in the kingdom of kansas. her name was yvonne. farmer marv had a great large old-fashioned barn with a second story hay mow, a high pitched roof and a rooster weather vane on the tallest peak. yvonne was piddling around the barnyard one fine day doing her hooves, trying to find her cuticles and curling her switch. "how did that rooster get on top of the barn?" she wondered. "well," said peggy, her best hen friend, "i supposed he walked. he could not fly because the poultry protection league made it illegal for us to fly higher than a chicken wire fence."
see." she walked to a steep set of wooden stairs. "you can't go up there!" said friend hen, "because cows can't hop." "i wonder," mused yvonne, and she clattered up the steps like a mountain goat! then walked to the open door. yvonne had never seen the farm from this high up. it was then that farmer marv and son roger came out the kitchen door. yvonne saw their mouths make an 'o'! yvonne and peggy watched from a safe distance as the men constructed a long ramp out of plywood, old boards, tar paper and drywall screws. they had to set some hefty support posts in the muddy ground. "what do you think that is for?" wondered olympics," suggested peggy. peggy was wrong. it took two men, three 8-foot panels, 30 pieces of baler twine, and a
d friend hen out after her, she was heard to say, "i can fly! i can fly! i can fl and that is the story of curious cow, which unlike other fairy tales, is true. i saw the video. hanks, baxter. you can hear more of his humor online at baxter black dot com. when we come back, machinery pete has this week's classic tractor tales.
hree farmall h war time tractors did not have lights rubber tires, battery, starters it was all manual this tractor was original to the farm grandpa bought it new to me in january of forty four he used at the farm it had cultivators, planter there was quite a few implements that went with it. first time i remember i was probably eight or nine years all as far as me farming with at all i ever did was rake hay real simple to drive it turns really easy easy to shift did not have any trouble learning at all on this tractor i've done everything other than an engine machine work i sent that off to a machine shop specializes in my it i rebuilt the engine new
just basic keep the grease in it, change the oil in it every now and then and drive it i've got two other sitting back here in the shed prefer one over them. right now it's kind of rusty and no housing here but i don't i haven't freed it up yet. you can see the paint wore off everything there and i have had to hand crank it which is not easy i do know that it will you across this barn whenever back fires thanks so much. this week's country church salute goes to the our lady of guadeloupe parish church in colarado. it's the state's oldest church. built in 1858, and 150 years old, it still stands and is used today. around 400 families call this historic church home. as always we want to learn about your home church as well... salutes can be sent to the address on the screen.
but for some, harvest conditions are far from ideal. demock mann is in hyde county north carolina. he says it's always fun to pick corn after a hurricane. in ty-rell and that cotton, soybean and corn crops were severly damaged. most of the cotton is in boll opening stage which made the crop especially vulnerable. my friend wallace was busy harvesting in arkansas this week. he says for him, he's taking off a record rice harvest. but that's not the case for everyone in his area. it's the corn crop that's suffering-- he says worst corn yield in 15 years. and it looks good, but the yield monitor is
rag about. combine that with low prices, and many farmers aren't even looking at breakeven right now. and more disapointment in corn yields in central illinois. my good friend john werries is just outside of jacksonville. he said there's a lot of disease pressure. and receiving less than an inch of rain the entire month of june is showing up. john told me that alone took about 40 bushels off the top end yield. but so far, he's seeing yields around 40 bushels below 2014 levels. as always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag-at-u-s-farm-report-dot- com or check us out on facebook and twitter. for john, al and mike, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great
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