tv U.S. Farm Report ABC September 18, 2016 3:30am-4:30am CDT
from the studios of farm journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report.> welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you over the next 60 minutes. a mega merger combining two agriuclture giants... but now regulatory approval could be the biggest hurdle of all. usda says we're looking at record crops and hefty stocks... < it drove double digit losses in the soybean market> this weeks' analysts break down the numbers. diversification is helping this dairy producer survive...
cruise in town." now for the news that moved the markets this week, record. huge. bin buster... these are all words that can be used to decribe usda thoughts about this year's soybean crop. usda upping it's national soybean yield estimate in monday's report... it now sits at 50 point-six bushels an acre, up one-point seven bushels from august. the higest yield looks to be in illinois. usda raising the estimate there by 4 bushels, now at 61 bushels per acre. total soybean production -- that's up 3 percent from august, at four-point-two billion bushels. switching to corn, usda slightly lowering the yield estimate, now at 174 point
billion bushels. as far as new ending stocks go. new corn ending stocks are in at nearly 2 point 4 (2.384) billion bushels. that's the highest stocks number since 1987 and 88. soybean ending stocks are now forecast at 365 million bushels. that's 35 million bushels higher than the average trade guess. here's profarmer's brian grete. meanwhile, the u-s trade representatives office making a bold move this week, accusing china of unfair price
would get for the same grains. the u-s launched a challenge at the world trade organization, saying those supports "far exceed" the limits that china agreed to when it joined the w-t-o in 2001. in response, china says it's always respected wto rules. this is a major sticking point for rice producers in arkansas, who say the price supports give some of these countries an unjust edge when it comes to trade currently china doesn't import any rice from the u-s. but sullivan says based on chinese consumption rates, if
entire domestic crop in 14 days. usda bumped the national wheat yield up this week, calling the domestic crop a staggering 52 point 6 bushels to the acre average. but the u.s. isn't the only country expecting bumper crops. australia, russia, ukraine, and kazakhstan are also expecting record yields this harvest. russia is forecasting its biggest wheat harvest in history despite having the lowest number of acres since the 1970's. after a run of improving margins, the the red. the latest sterling profit tracker showing that cattle feeders face per head losses of 202 dollars. much of that drop pushed by lower cash prices-- now 13 dollars lower than a month ago. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather... mike, i've heard from some viewers who say the rains can let up anytime so they can get in the field. oh i know tyne, but unfortunately, there are some more systems coming
monitor, you can still see that the pockets of a very dry conditions much of the northern and central portions of georgia some surrounding areas also parts of the northeast in some eastern areas have been getting drier and you can see a western portions of south dakota so let's go back over the past month again see how you're seen in some areas trying to develop across the plains never happen because we ended up with more moisture as we move through time of course we continue to see the very very dry conditions in california. alright starting off on monday a cold front coming through the upper midwest will be areas of showers and thunderstorms along that cold front showers back into the pacific northwest as well and a storm system moving away from the northeaster that rain will be ending in the northeastern portions of the country still some scattered showers in the mid atlantic states dry elsewhere however on wednesday were of the watch a potential remnant of a hurricane coming out of the pacific perhaps bringing some decent rains or heavy rains of the southwest
showers and thunderstorms there and is it just we had miss showers and thunderstorms in the southeast otherwise dry great lakes northeast down into texas on friday then part of the remnant of that hurricane again that's all speculative at this point but that may be feeding on up into the northern plains in the northern great lakes with that system scattered showers and thunderstorms up and down the mississippi valley during the latter part of next week that so a look at the weather for this week we'll check the longer range forecast coming up .. we still have a record crop on our hands. we'll break down the report with duwayne bosse and jim mccormick after the break. us farm report brought to you by mycogen seeds. visit acres of
report this week we saw a decrease in that corn yield but an increase in soybean yield and duwayne that's pretty much what we've been hearing that there are some impressive soybean yield out there heard from some folks it's a corn yield may be a little disappointing but overall what are your thoughts on the yield right now the yield that i was really shocked with the higher soybean yield to be honest with the i'm kind of wonder if they don't have to go a little bit higher with that yet anything about it we had just an ideal august in september for filling out these beans are the only thing is it's been so perfect that actually it's slowed maturity just a little bit down but that means they're filling out even better so i don't be surprise in october you even see a fifty one plus is my thought jim on that in this corn yield mean we said the trade didn't believe that one seventy five point one we lowered it just out a little bit do you think the train leaves that are based on that one seventy two one seventy three range they believe it's the one seventy two one seventy three they really believe we had some heat late year and that's caused some problems test weight possibly there's some tip back
that's number there they're convinced that's what's going to be they may have to get to the october report to prove to be proved right or wrong on their convictions and it seems like everyone was talking about that new crop ending stocks and ending stocks kind of stole the show in this last report what do you think while the ending stocks i think what really surprised people is you know they were looking for big draw down in the ending stocks the reality is we've got plenty of grain and in the big picture that we we're dealing with one seventy five one seventy three even one seventy two to one it's a monsterous supply issue that the worst and face right now i mean this was not a bullish report with the quarterly grain stocks report coming up do you expect that to be bullish are we looking at more of the same type of news that i did jim and i were talking earlier where actually both the kind of bearish guys we've got some negative news on this quarterly stocks report coming up you know i think when you look back it you know demand is just maybe overestimating and jim can probably hit on it better than i can on corn that
that you know three and last four years of action gone back and increase the yield from the previous year and we just had a crush report this week a natural that demand maybe wasn't as good as we thought so the soybean ending stocks that might well i would say might i think it's gonna end of over two hundred million for old crop. see an increase in that acreage number i do but you know i've been saying that since may so i'm i will keep going with that but no fsa acres came out this week the certified acres in all not everybody certifies but like for corn acres over the came up with was six point seven million acres more than the previous year so i i think they're going to increase acres in the october report the harvested acres at least probably i don't know two to three hundred thousand in soybeans may be up to a half million and corn soared higher talking barish the yields rt isnt looking very friendly either jim feed and residual use what we need a watch with that coming up on this next report will the next big report is a quarterly grain stock report it's not good for this and give us a final production in the year in the kind of backtrack to find out how much grain we use what one
last three quarters for it to reach the usda's target of five point two billion bushels it's got to be up by twenty percent above last year's last quarter usage which was already a highest in six years is a very good shot the government overstated by as much as a hundred million bushels sold may overstated the feed and residual by a hundred million that will prop as the man of the man of even hire looking in the more suspect was a very good shot that the demand numbers and get revised lower if they do that how bearish would that be on prices considering the levels that were already at that i i think if they would do that they have a potential push in a carry out two to five plus i think that will at least give us a flush out and on the dl last but it will put a flush out back below three dollars a week at least briefly doing yeah i think
in the nearby usually just is good support it and i'd probably be a buyer there too so i think you're gonna get worse prices yet in the next couple weeks maybe even two or three weeks we might bottom out here because we're talking the stuff now in a coarse way the market will start talking in his well we had lows maybe before the report duwayne last time you were here you thought we may see a harvest low early considering that usda could put out a major yield in the august report that they did trade it really really racked but it sounds like you think especially for soybeans i thought you always can be higher in august and they didn't come away that they did come out with a high corn one but is that i'm really bearish is far as soybeans that i think that yields got to go up fifty one plus it has been so perfect in the early yields have been really good, havent' they jim. that have so quite yet i agree with duwayne in the fact is this is a huge crop on the way the market i do i think their still in denial how big it is the producer are in denial how big it is i think the market's going to get the number put it and but i think is a very good shot to happen to the quarterly grains stock report or the wasde report
welcome back to u s farm report, okay, as those crops coming out duwayne, i'll let you go first, okay, noone likes these prices, there's no doubt, every individual can be totally different won by answering that question i think that's why both of us hesitated there you know if you have high storage costs are high commercial storage at your elevator then sell it buy calls, and a lot of us brokers aregoing to push that because that's a smart thing if you do that, you just put a floor in
down quite a bit then if the guys aren't happy with using futures and options i will pay the storage causes bearish as i was in the first segment, i'm bullish long term so what about in these areas jim where it's too expensive to pay the store i if if it's too expensive we are optimistic in the long run we do think this team and will bring the market back up so we think it's totally worth while re owning it so what were down guys do the math forget how much is gonna cost to store it out to march april may may consider just fine and at the money caller vertical calls road that leads you know the some skin in the game is like to say but cuts from risk down to marginal cost speaking of the man wielding a wto filing the complaint and now china's going ot switch and maybe buy some new crop of bushels from from brazil in areas like that we need china for the demand, .but at the same time we understand this this this complaint that was filed what do you think this will have any impact on chinese buys from the u s i personally i don't
to buy the majority of our soybeans er almost all of our soybeans. i don't think is really have a huge effect and maybe had to be done because of their structure of how they were paying their farmers for corn subsidies but i don't think there's a big effect jim are you are you bullish, i've heard some folks saying you know look this demand picture looks really good. are you bullish demand or when you consider this massove stocks maybe we shouldn't be so bullish i'm bullish demand, i'm probably not as bullish as some people are i mean what makes st year the government understated demand by 250 million bushels. they've raised it forty five million above this year's above last year's so i don't think they're going to miss it by that much but i do think like doing said that the man from china's there they have their hog population is the top off if their population equals the next fifty countries combined they got those hogs they're gonna buy beans to feed speaking of hogs and supplies there's no shortage it seems here in the u s no no a
there saying we need hogs, we want them and there have no problem if i am at lower prices so low prices are crashing right now this week and i want to jump in and buy that would be what we call catching a falling knife right now i think i want to stay the heck away form that well when we look at cattle, we look at at these feedyards, looking at in the red you know look in about two hundred per head losses from the feedyars, but these live cattle prices, what are your thoughts shortterm? term short term or limit optimistic catt,e we think we put the low and we're optimistic that reina targets in a row on round the one ten one twelve while on the cash as we move to the end of the year so we are optimistic on that hopefully that will help put a bottom in a hot market to but cheap feed means we could feed more that needs increased weight s. what impact will i'm glad you asked that, tyne, because i'm scared to death in heavier weights right now this week i think we will only gained two pounds on this steer carcass, so we are sixteen pounds under last year so that's good, but remember how
carcass weights than with the big numbers were going below 100 then. jim real quick inflation this week what impact that have low inflation w're seeing it on a friday friday in a big move in the price is what it was a c p i came up the government wants inflation they're getting it and that's got money pouring into the ag market as an inflationary play. all right thank you both will get their closing thoughts when we come back on u s farm report with market prices contstnly changing, it's important to know where current prices stand. get market prices delivered right to your mobile phone, just text markets to
welcome back time now for closing thoughts duane let's start with you i think what i'd like to touch on is probably the soybean market than i ever heard so many people like jim mention were the exact same year that a lot of bullish talk that all u s da is going to underestimate demand again. remember where the demand came from a lot of it came from some small production problems in south america i think usda is pretty close with their demand as of right now lin
e seasonal tendencies article lower let's get to the end of september and then i really want to flip and start talking bullish because from those price levels the upside is huge. alright jim . as for corn, like dywane, i'm a little bit bearish corn right now.the fact of the matter is between corn beans and wheat, we got about two billion more supply that we get a deal with this fall compared to year ago that's gonna cause logistics issues and i am a bit concerned about thie feed issue but i want to put this crop away the demand will show up and i think it is worth while maintaining ownership and we're optimistic we will get a decent rebound as a going into the end of the year and into the witner timme so you guys are both more bullish 2017, absolutely absolutely absolutely never south america they're not gonna gain soybean acres like previous years that's a big thing with a to watch here and wehater. thank you both for being here stay with us john phipps joins us next
welcome back. it's time to head to the farm for this week's john's world. as i mentioned earlier this summer, jan and i celebrate our wedding anniversary every 5 years. not only does this give me a pass 80 percent of the time when i forget, it allows us to save up plan to take cruises. many other farmers have done so as well. it turns out if you plan carefully, they are not as expensive as they might first appear. this summer an entirely new cruise route has opened up: the legendary northwest passage. for the first time a large cruise ship completed the voyage from alaska to new york. it was a controversial undertaking, since a titanic-like disaster would overwhelm the canadian rescue
tourists despoiling yet another pristine ecosystem. but given the price of a ticket, from $20,000 up to $120,000 per passenger plus insurance and your bar tab, it probably won't be competing with the bahamas anytime soon. still, this was the route so many expeditions, including the unsuccessful john cabot and james cook and the successful roald amundsen, struggled mightily to discover. in that sense the historic me. i have been under the arctic ice in a submarine 40 years ago, and the idea of sailing through the northwest passage on top of the arctic fascinates me. so maybe the summer arctic ice cover will continue to decline, and more ships and infrastructure along the way will make this journey a whole lot cheaper. our best chance, i think, is for them to wheel us aboard our diamond
welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead over the next 30 minutes. diversifying to survive... that's this week's farm journal report. we're on the road with machinery pete in north dakota where a crop switch also meant demand for new equipment. and in customer support, are we getting too good at growing corn? john talks the supply side of the equation. and now for ithe headlines, two of the largest ag companies could now be one. bayer and monsanto reaching a monumental agreement this week, calling the new company an innovation engine. the final bayer bid comes in at 128 dollars per share--that's 44 percent above the may 9th share price--when all of this first
regulatory approval will be the biggest hurdle, with bayer offering a 2 billion dollar break fee if the deal doesn't go through. both monsanto and bayer say this marriage means technology will be pushed through their pipelines quicker, with their main example being herbicide tolerance traits. bayer says it will need to file for regulatory approval in 30 coutnries, including the u.s., eu,. canada and brazil. in the u.s. alone, the combined company would own nearly 37% of the seed arly 30% t for soybeans. on the crop protection and traits business-- the merged company would own nearly 31% of the market. however the biggest sticking point may be in cotton. the combined company would own 70% of total market share. s, what will need to be divested? bayer's ceo joked on wednesday saying the overlaps are so obvious they didnt' even need to comment on it. but monsanto ceo says overlap is minimal. as our partners at agweb are reporting,
saw 1 point 9 billion in gross profits from herbicides, mainly roundup, bayer may be forced to drop its glufosinate chemistry, which includes the brands liberty and libertylink. and in cotton, monsanto has 31 percent ofthe cotton market share, while bayer's fibermax and stoneville brands have a combined 39 percent. so, one or more of those brands will need to be sold. american farm buruea's bob young says in today's environment, the issue could be who's in the position to buy? young will testify in front of the senate judiciary committee next week during hte hearing on ag consolidation. he'll be joined by top leaders of bayer, monsanto, dupont, dow and syngenta. so what do farmers
shows 67 percent are not in favor of the deal. 10 percent support it, and 18 percent are undecided. it's a controversial bill in california that's now law. governor jerry brown signed a bill giving farm workers the same overtime pay as most other hourly workers. the rules are set to start being phased in by 2019. farm laborers will now get time and a half pay after eight hours of work in a day or 40 hours in a week. that's up from 10 hours a day or 60 hours in a week. opponents argue farm work is different with critical windows to finish harvesting or planting. a new appeals court ruling says epa abused it's power by releasing the personal information of more than 100-thousand farmers and ranchers. this goes back to 2013, when epa shared the legal names, addresses, emails and phone numbers of more than 100-thousand farmers and
burueau sued to stop it from happening again. the u.s. court of appeals for the 8th circuit in st. louis has ruled the information wasn't public. the lawsuit against epa can now move forward. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the national forecast. mike, how do things look the next 30 days? thanks, tyne, well a lot of the country's going to be warm but they are going to be some areas of the plains are probably cooler than our old ghetto that the second you can see the jet stream for this weak trough from the great lakes into northeast at ridge building in to the middle of the country by the middle of the week. like i said earlier there's a potential hurricane but that will probably seen some moisture they always die off once they come into the southwest that could mean some moisture up into this trough is we had throughout next year this coming week and you could also see that that may lead it into
finally does start to make its way into the northern plains and the great lakes so my thirty day outlet for temperatures above normal mid atlantic northeast and great lakes and most of the west going below normal for a strip of the plains states especially the south central plains precipitation over the next thirty days above normal the upper midwest and great lakes as well as texas and the southeastern portions of coastal areas especiallytynev thanks, mike. we're partnering with our friends at farm journal's milk magazine this year to profile some of the most progressive dairy farmers in the country. in this farm journal report, we introduce you to a producer in california diversifying his operation not just because of lower milk prices but because of the challenges he faces from farming in the golden state. betsy jibben has our september milk magazine cover story. take a ride with california dairy producer greg hooker....
window. (talking about solar pannels. show shots driving by) pieces of the business lining the road to his main investment: a 45-hundred head holstein dairy. it's an industry he married into and the reason he started farming. greg met his wife jennifer at a college in michigan. the two moved back to california near her parent's dairy after graudation. he made the transition from engineer to dairy producer with the help of her family.
illa, california and created diamond h dairy. buying was easy. getting a permit was a challange. the process took several years and multiple lawsuits- one even finding its way to the california supreme court. once phases... today they milk cows in two side-by-side parlors. one a double 34 harringobne, the other a double 45 parrallel. in order to milk more cows and give us more time, we decided to put in the parallel on this side,"> his herd averages 90 pounds per cow per day - 3 times a day. on a three times daily rotation> through the success of expanding.. the challanges of operating a dairy in california
. i dont try to make money out of it. (take out inbetween) we shoot for having about fifty percent of our milk covered by the time that quarter comes."> he uses the margin protection program but greg says it's not exaclty geared for california farmers. but like a midwest operation, greg tries to grow most of his own feed on 25-hundred acres. in fact, part of his long-term diversification plans include... going into the almond business. he's mic'ed up by trees: he says many producers are following suit and it comes with a bonus. he's also making investments in a new valley milk powder plant in turlock, california - a product that will ship worldwide.
profitable. our projections show it will be ok,"> but maybe greg's largest investment is in the future... a legacy he can pass down to his kids... all six of them. that's the goal- and it drives greg everyday. as he works to sustain a future during these fluid times in california. reporting for agday, i'm betsy jibben. thanks, betsy. you can view more stories from farm journal's milk, by visiting milk-business dot com. when we come back, john phipps.
economy. i have labeled these as supply control - where farmers deliberately produce less to raise prices and income; and price control - where commodity prices are simply set by the government. this week we'll look at the supply side, where farmers voluntarily plant fewer acres causing prices and income to rise. the first problem is the relationship to prices and income. cutting back acres by 10% for example would mean prices would have to rise by about 11% to break even. there is no good way to ensure that happens, because it depends on many other factors, such as inventories on hand. it is very possible a 10% supply cutback would lower income, but it is essentially unpredictable. this is why previous attempts to artificially lower production paid farmers to reduce acres to overcome this income loss. there are other issues. most
commodities like grains are produced around the world, so a cutback here would be a gift to brazilian farmers, for example. planting 10% fewer acres would likely not reduce production by 10%, as farmers would idle their worst acres first. we have experience with this from earlier farm bills with set asides. the biggest problem however, other than the math, is the moral hazard. while voluntarily reducing acres may be good for the group, cheating is the optimal strategy for the individual. after all, you get the same price as those who reduce planting. i don't see any sense of commitment to a common cause that could overcome this powerful incentive. voluntary acre reduction is one of those theories that doesn't scale up to a national or international level, but might work in a smaller group like a community or cartel like diamonds. but
we're contining our on the road with machinery pete series this month with a trip up to jamestown, north dakota. farming in that area has changed, and so has equipment. but it's the farmers' ability to adapt that makes many of their operations so unique. a lot of them are dried up but got heavey rain last night to build tehse back up again. a decade ago, most of these fields would be painted in vibrant yellow by a plethora of sunflowers. farmer shawn anderson says pests and other problems forced that to change.
ds are full of mainly corn, soybeans and wheat, all of which have better genetics to deal with north dakota's challenging weather. and with different crops came different equipment. about 5 years ago he upgraded to a newer pair of s-680s. he's not the only one. local dealer valley plains says while big purchases have tapered off some, growers are making a more tactical, versus
methodicall if you will of their purchase they're really choosign what it is they're going otbuy> in this area, it's track equipment leading the way. in that sandhy ground, and in the rollings hills, we can't pull a harvester without tracks. we've tried it dualed up on front and back and you can't pull it up hills , narrow track, we can actually pull the harvesters, so it's pretty critical>
actually under a little bit of pressure the last 12 to 18 months.> machinery pete says tillage search traffic is picking up, < so i wonder if that's going to translate into some maybe some solidifying used prices here at the end of hte year> no matter what these farmers are in the market for, technology drives many of their decision. anderson pays attention to detail both in and out of hte field, keeping his shop and equipment in impeccable shape, something machinery pete says dictates values.
in its category. paul tingler created this work of art from just about every piece of machinery you could think of. and while this garden tractor may not have much use in the field, it is a magnet for the youngest of enthusiasts. we're in the wood climbing flywheelers together in his first time on the tractor he's been around these engines in tractors for since was born so he was comvortable with it. it's made me feel good to see another kid on a tractor that tractors bits and pieces the framework and the differential on the front axle iven to him our brother the rear wheels come off another gave tractor given to me the engine was so i gathered up in mounted on there and some special adjustments made the mount everything on my two boys were seven and four are now built this and they needed some entertainment when we went to an engine show so this was their entertainment this was just a fabrication work a trial and error fit just to make sure we had something safe for kids to ride kids don't ride it without
ride it by themselves but that other people ride by themselves. two year old grandson got on a friend of ours at one time and one lady had to pry those kids' fingers off one at a time that's been to about every show i've been to up in the last forty years i'm amazed at how popular this tractor is after forty years of being at shows the fuel tank setting under the engine was built out of sheet metal drain pipes to build these things you do what you have to do you make up what you have to ntry church salute goes to the niekerk christain reformed church in holland, michigan celebrating it's 150th anniversary this month. they tell us many things have changed during that time, including language, style, buildign and people. but their devotion ot the lord and committment to serving others, has been a staple for all those years. our thanks to rick and nancy windemuller for sharing their
long drawn out muddy harvest in minnesota. cory ritter has been more fortunate, able to get in the field to harvest in central illinois for about 5 days now. corey tells us yields are above average. but the big question in that area - - are yields better than the record we saw in 2014 ?corey says no... slightly under. and they were busy night harvesting in elizabethtown pennsyvilvania this week. eric tells us they are a first-generation farm family and used tobacoo as a cash crop to help with cash flow when getting started. and mike, a big week for you. your birthday. yeah, they don't county anymore. you don't look a day over 31 thanks. it's these studio lights. for
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