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tv   U.S. Farm Report  ABC  October 9, 2016 3:30am-4:30am CDT

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welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you over the next 60 minutes. canidates taking shots at trade on the campiagn trail... what would life be like without the 20 year old deal? that's our farm journal report. as hurricane matthew rages on, thousdands of crop acres stand in its way... "it's got the potential to just devastate the crop entirely> cub ethusiasts from west virginia are this week's tractor tales. and in john's world... fire in the washing machine
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ers along the east coast didn't need one more inch of rain, but that's exactly what they got this week calling the tropical storm devestating for harvest thousands of acres of ready crops. north carolina farmers just can't catch a break, with parts of the state receiving anywhere from nine-to-12 inches of rain last week, making field work impossible and ravaging a ag statistics service, as of last week, just five percent of the state's cotton has been picked, which is the five year average. the cotton bolls are open on three quarters of the crop, a very vulnerable stage. "it's got the potential to just devastate the crop entirely. you know, it's possible there'd be nothing that would be worth harvesting after if we get much wind and rain."> field workers are also handpicking tobacco in advance
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has open bolls, and only 9 percen tof it is harvested, which is right on track with average. in georgia, 13 percent of that crop is out of the field, 5 points ahead of average. but 90 percent of the crop's cotton bolls are open. rains across the country also slowing down harvest in other areas. corn harvest is now behind the five year average with 24-percent in the bin, compared to 27-percent average. we saw a nine point gain from the previous week. minnesota reached eight percent - up five points in a week but half of now. .wisconsin is single digits. .and iowa reached ten percent. a six point gain, but still lagging the five year average. after weeks of talk, china is officially completely removing it's ban on u-s beef prodcuts. it's a ban put into place in 2003 after the united states b-s-e scare. the moves open the door for u-s bone in beef and boness beef for livestock under 30 months of
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into china shot up 51 percent compared to the same time last year. this was the scene at the world dairy expo this week, as producers are facing the stark reality of struggling dairy prices. the class iii milk prices just keeps slipping. usda announcing hte setpember price falling to 16.39 per hudnrewedight. that's down 52 cents from august, and 57 cents below the same time last year. u.s. dairy producers have a growing herd and growing supplies. mke north of commodity ement groups says milk prices will need to move higher to get margins back in the black. north says he expects pressure to continue on these prices to close out 2016 and heading into 2017. the u-s is still facing a growing hog herd. as of
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over year. total population now 70 point 8 (70.85 million head) million head. that includes a record number of market hogs. farrowings from june to august were also above 2015 (3.02 million head) including a new record high for the pig crop. those are the headlines...meteorologist cindi clawson is in for mike hoffman this week. cindi, i know you're keeping an eye on hurricane matthew. can we expect any improvemntes in the drought monitor in the southeast? well we certainly hope so but unfortunately we've been seeing conditions continue to deteriorate not only in the southeast but in the northeast as well but we got a hold at least some of that rain will bring at least some short term improvements but obviously were pretty well in drought here so it's going to take a lot over longer periods of not a bit one time rain, alright, ehre's a looka thow it's changed over the past four weeks and you can see a month ago we still have some pretty dry areas in the southeast northeast and of course out in the west as well but over the course of the last
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intensify in the southeast and into the northeast let's take a look at the week ahead and now this could be a lot of uncertainty with what matthew does as its models have been kind of all over the place but we do still have a least a small chance for some rain in there and some wind with all that touch on that too much because so much can change so stay tuned to your local affiliates for that we'll have a front that's gonna be moving through parts of the northern plains upper midwest will bring some showers with that continuing into much of the pacific northwest but high praise for keeping things cut high and dry for a lot of the south and in the east at least for monday but that front will make some easetern pgoress and we'll see some showers and some thunderstorms moving through much of the corn belt as we get into the middle part of the week where it is still see some pretty hot temperatures in the south and a chance for some rain down into a especially florida friday another front comes in brings us a chance for showers maybe some rumbles as we get into the upper midwest in
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more weather coming up a little bit later on in the showtime thanks, cindi. could this soggy harvest impact price? we'll check with dustin johnson and brian splitt after the break. with market prices constantly changing, it's important to know where current prices stand. get market prices delivered right to
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welcome back to u s farm report this weekend on the show with me we have dustin johnson of ag yielding brian split of allendale ok we're going to just get this question out of the way have we put our harvest well brian i'll start with you i think in the very least we've established a good low end of the range whether this market needs to go make a new low by a couple cents like corn likes to do sometimes that's quite a possibility but i think we've established that the low of three dollars three fifteen a reasonably good area value and
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perception dustin do you agree with brian i think the lows are not in if you look at what happened last year october seventh a lot of people said ok here we go the october low is in and if you look at the may contract between then and march thirty first we dropped another sixty eight cents so are there still a lot of risk out there and the loss of kerry in a sideways market when we have very large stocks is what is making that risk will harvest is falling a bit behind when we look at these torrential rains that we've seen a part of the corn belt in any of hurricane matthew coming in this weekend that does that help provide some support here a short short term or does it have any impact at all and might give a little bit of support but i think if you get rallies based on the idea of harvest ways you have to sell into those rallies those are not meaningful long lasting rallies all right what about this national yield dustin i mean you know i know this corny for disk
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final yield is going to be on on corn what i don't think anyone has a better estimate than the usda does and so even with their september stocks the number they've got way more resources put into it then almost all the private analysts combined i've seen hundreds of anecdotal yield evidence you know a lot of really good deals with its now suspect the see when the usda is forecasting a one seventy four one seventy five national average so i would say we trust in the usda will see what they ve with the next was the report one seventy four one seventy three caen one seventy two at the end of the day what yield do we have to to get what is their man will yield a need to be in order to move these prices higher because no matter what you're looking at a record crop sure and you could say cut the yield by say for bush a one acre in bringing down one seventy point four and that would cut production by roughly i think three hundred sixty five million bushels even if you cut
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ets in on and on it saying that that's where the yields going to do but we have to see a rather substantial drop in yield in order get carry out below two million bushels and i think that's a tough thing to happen next couple months and soybeans brian i mean we're looking at a monster crop out there for beans as well right here on and we continue to hear reports in the dakotas of you know twice a ph i've got a cli minnesota i talked to this morning that said that they're running above with the national averages which is very atypical for them on there so i have yet to hear a disappointing soybean yield report so what are we going to do with all these beans i mean me do we have enough demand and to chew through this massive amount of production that we're going to have on her hands when it's all said and done here is a question i actually think it's the other way most people that i keep reading say that they think no matter what we grow china just going by that because chinese the man's been off the charts do you believe that we
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ng to be in access and a lot of the government changes are happening around the world like china lowered his price support program that could ultimately result in less beans imported as their corn meal feed ratio starts the realign with the rest of the southeastern asian countries says lot of things that are kind of unwritten that could be actually less forward demand projected for beans than what is currently thought the same time we look at corn exports brian i know alandale talked about this week our exports up seventy percent for corn over the five year average pace mean we're just looking at a massive amount of corn shipments do you think that can can last is that sustainable or is that just a short term i think a lot of this is something we may see continue until maybe the end of the year brazil recently improved gmo corn in there got some supply issues where we need to maybe fill their pipeline until january but we are running ahead of the pace
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marketing year and i have a feeling we're in a front end load this little bit then things may be a little bit more disappointing on the back and as we get in the first second quarter of next year all right so we have some more export news to talk about when we come back as well as what impact could the election results have on
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welcome back well continuing on this export conversation this week brazil announcing that it will accept some gmo corn from the united states at three different products basically for livestock feed so as we see some of that demand to go down to brazil is that just a temporary demand boost or or could that be more long term is well sure i think it's the headline
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carry out is is not gonna be very large percentage of the carry out either way so that it to his point earlier you are still going be looking at that to two point two billion bushel carry out even though all these things are happening i think that the usda is already over forecasting export demand is what our own projections are that we have to see a record total demand by seven earned thirty million bushels just to reach the usda's numbers so a little bit more goes to brazil i don't think that's going to be a really truly affect price action also looking on the export front when we look at meat exports u s meat export federation coming out this week saying that that meat exports were hit in almost a two year high for some of this so it is that a case for lower prices are curing lower lower prices we need to see this i think from all of total meat supply standpoint we're gonna have the most meat available to the u s consumer in the last nine years so we've got an awful
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through this so just like corn and soybeans and you've got low prices you need to see this export program very strong and is that something that can continue i mean when we look at you know this u s dollar right now gaining strength we know that's not favorable for exports so looking at all of this bullish export news that we have had this week could the dollar may weaken but keep a lid on things ah yes the on the dollar has been climbing again to in a multi month toward month a multi denominated assets are gonna find that to be negative but i think just the overwhelming amount of bushels from the world is people have a choice of where the source that they or least not if not now within the next twelve months so that is going to be an impact i think on a lower commodity prices if the fed raises interest rates if that happens what impact could
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dollar has been going up and we are near some small time on ties and i think the dollar is trying to price in this rate increase we saw this roughly this time last year so what happened last year in december the fed did raise rates and then we went on a cycle of the dollar dropped for about six months and you know if that is something that materializes on the back and here maybe that could be somewhat supportive to commodity prices if we do see that same cycle or in the dollar for the first six months a twenty seventeen as we wait the next have the november elections coming up what type of impact could the outcome in the election have on our stock market i think everyone agrees that trump is the wild card and so whenever you have the uncertainty of a not being able to predict what is going do exactly that could be for some assets for safe havens like the dollar should be support of the dollar especially when he's had a preacher terse tone towards janet yellen and just the fed a policy in general
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as the favorite and the dollar going up it could be negative for commodity short term the same time we've seen a surge of corn exports to mexico and considering how vocal us and these candidates have been about mexico do you think that's a coincidence no i think if i were in mexico and i had a lot of corn to buy and i have the combination of multi year lows and corn prices and a presidential candidate that is r it and we don't know how that happened but could be through trade policy i would be pre emptive for those two reasons and i think that's why we saw such a large purchase by mexico for corn because you have these things coming down the pipeline and so weather we see that continue in you know that's iffy but i think this is a little bit of preemptive action on their part to make sure they get sand needs covered before we see what the results are more near term we have this supply demand report coming out
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rt i think the the biggest thing is that yield times price equals revenue so the yields are making up for a lot of that lower price and odd to a point earlier about the loss of carry over time you start to see those back monsour actually in a pretty decent price that might not be around by the time we get to that march to may time frame are just as the example earlier all right well from here the closing thoughts when we come back on u
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welcome back time for closing thoughts. brian split we'll start with you you know dustin made a really good point about whether the follow is in or not in. these back months are at higher levels and there is substantial carry in the market and all things being equal, unless the size of the crop perception really changes should eventually come down to where nearby is right now. so that will mean new contract lows for the march may
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have bushels need to make sure capturing the carrier using at her advantage and that's there and soybeans while rinsing november july beings have about twenty five sen carr all right good point just in i think the market needs to think about what needs to do in the future and that is reduce north american corn and soybean acres last year were on this that the exact same price for corn and we still picked up acres so those two were combined record last year corn soybeans and art so the market needs the try to disincentivize that and you know at what price does that happen special we just came off a ten year lows a rather good point thank you both stay with us john phipps joins us now
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phipps joins us now phipps joins us now
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time now to head to john's farm
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hear from your spouse just as you're beginning harvest honey there's smoke coming from the washing machine sure enough while one of most depended on appliances in the house the washing machine was in serious trouble now i could could call a repairman were sixty miles away trying to coordinate his visit let alone pay the seventy five box although i don't begrudge it its a long way out here just for a visit and probably would take two to get the parts in the back and forth is a is a big hassle so i did before i started do not before almost all problems i just googled it that you put in smoke lg washing machine you'll get a series of answers one of which really help it was a video on youtube of an appliance repairman showing me how to check and make sure wasn't the main bearings and back and if it was the main front seal, which i thought is hte problem how to
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dot com, which i strongly recommend this a great place to get parts for anything if you don't know what it is, and and i ordered the park two days it should be here with the video i should be able to get it fixed now the reason i'm telling you this is not to just simply an endorsement of of google or youtube or lg washers or anything else it's just that this is one of those things that has made our life so much better be able to solve this problem so much faster and with much less cost of just the trips alone is is a big deal but it doesn't show up in any of our economic measures one of the problems economists have right now is the things that are making our allies better being able communicate on facebook or by e mail or fix our own washing machines unless money changes hands it doesn't show up so i'm a little bit skeptical again
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counting all our blessings and one blessing to believe it or not, is google thanks, john. when we come back, major trade deas are receiving negative press this year. but many in agriculture argue nafta is one deal that works. that's after
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report. this weekend on u-s farm report. what would the world look like iwthout nafta? that's our farm journal report. often, its farmers' better half doing the heavy lifting on the farm or ranch. we''ll hear from baxter black. it's a politcal blast from the past with john phipps. now for the headlines, after last month, views are starting to rebound. the latest purdue ag barometer survey shows farmers sentiments coming in at 101. that's a modest improvement over the 95 we saw in the august survey. but it's still well below the 112 the barometer showed in july. the report is released by both purdue and c-m-e. the authors say the liveestock sector is more
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soften the blow of lower livestock and milk prices. subsidies for last year's crop are set to be released, and could come at a vital time. usda announcing this week payments to farmers will top 7 billion dollars. tthat number is expected to be more than 10 percent of farmers net farm incoems this year the majority of these payments cover arc and plc payments for hte 2015 crop year. the lower commodity prices are triggering bigger payments, as that 7 billion dollars is a wheat, teh payments are spread across the entire u-s, topping 50 per acre in several counties. the treasury department is proposing new rules that could sharply increase producers' estate tax burden. but, agriculture groups and lawmakers are fighting back. treasury wants to hike the value of producers' farm and ranch assets by reducing discounts for certain ownership, making it harder to qualify for the estate
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state tax exemption from more than $5 million down to $3.5 million, and raise the tax rate to 45 percent from 40 percent. donald trump's tax plan includes the estate tax, which clinton says favors the rich. taxes a major theme of the first and only vice presidential debate. governor pence even discussing trade and family farms.
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re. that's it for news...meteorologist cindi clawson joins us again. cindi, what's in store the next 30 days? well we're gonna talk about this week first cause i know a lot of folks have seen very big temperature swings and saw one of the show the jet stream and work things even out a little bit be a little more seasonable for a lot of areas especially in the northern united states i think we're still in a season pretty warm temperatures out south there was a little trough was any coming towards the great lakes as we get into wednesday that's going to be bringing a cold front into one of the great lakes area was there to see a trough building into the western united states though is we get into thursday and friday as well so look for some cool temperatures and some stormy conditions there now as we get into saturday for next weekend to see trough then moving into again the great lakes area so we'll have few chances for some rain there now a thirty day temperatures overall we're looking at above normal for the eastern half of the country parts of the west as
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precipitation wise it's a little wet for harvest time in parts of the corn belt also also a little wet in the northwest but perhaps little dry and some of the gulf coast states and into the southwest thanks, cindi, for some of us in agriculture, we don't know or remember what life is like without nafta. a major trade agreement put into place more than 20 years ago has just become a way of life and business. but this election season has been one for hte books, even shining light on a agriuclture say works. but what would life be like without nafta? that's this week's farm journal report. trade is a heated line of debate on the campaign this year, with gop nominee donald trump taking shots at the north american free trade agreement, even threatneing to pull out of the deal. trump's ag advisor sam clovis telling agritalk host
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it's time to review nafta, we don't want to get rid of it, we want to review it> but groups like american farm buruea say when you look at nafta by the numbers, it's a deal that works for agriculture. looking at it by country, canada was the number 1 consumer of u-s agricultural goods in 2015, and the top buyer of u-s fresh fruits and vegetables. mexico ranks #3 on the overall list, but is the top destination for u-s corn, poultry and soybean meal. today, mexico has the highest porportion of overweight and obese children in the
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an attractive option. mexico also purchases 23 percent of all u-s corn exports. but it's their growing demand for protein that could provide an added boost. if we can feed it in the u- s, feed ourc corn in the ui-s to our animal industry, and the livestock industry and export that finished product, that's the biggest value we can get> mexico is currently the largest market in terms of volume for u-s poultry and pork, and the second biggest for beef.
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is our number 1 dairy trading partner and canada can be number 2 or number 3> but for groups like rice producers, it's the products coming in that's becoming a concern.
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right quanities, the right quality in the right form, of sugar into our country at the right level> but he says even with the suspension, there are still loopholes allowing sugar to enter the u-s in sub-standard forms, then processing it into other products. < a melthouse can what we call clean it up a little bit, they can reprocss it, typically they liquify it and spray it onto a food product, so they add sugar that way, not going trhougj the normal channels. well this adds pressure to those cane refineries, they are losing a piece of hteir normal business> despite mexico being the u-s sugar industry's number 1 competitor, even those growers don't want to see nafta go away. as for hte presidential candidates, their stance on trade is mainly
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you how manufacturing jobs in hte u-s have fallen 40 percent
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john has been covering some pretty controversial topics lately, and we've heard from many of you who appreciate john issues head on. sometime you get a reminder of how old you have become. this email from steve andersen: "i hope you continue to bring up controversial subjects on your part of the show. i too remember price controls from the nixon years and the pain of having them removed due to shortages
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nattering nabobs of negativism stop you." first of all, thanks for the support. send me an address. but while it was depressing enough to realize many viewers don't remember the events or the presidents you mentioned, it was the quote at the end: nattering nabobs of negativism that made my day. for all you youngsters, that phrase is what passed for flamboyant political rhetoric back in the day. no, seriously. the words d political writer william safire and spoken by nixon's vice president, spiro agnew. they have stuck in my mind - and steve's obviously - since they were uttered in 1970. the sentiment being expressed by both steve and vice- president agnew is a familiar one. right now dissatisfaction seems to be rampant, but i view these complaints with considerable skepticism. take those
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omy or country. there have only been a few times in my life that a majority of us answered positively, so being disgruntled is kinda what we do here. we're always grumpy about the future. except when it's your future. while polls show we think the nation is going off the rails, they also show a majority of us currently are ok with our own futures. this is inconsistent to say the least. finally, if you ask unhappy citizens which direction we should be going you get answers like this. not exactly helpful. the nattering nabobs of negativism are always with us, and may be part of the discontent with the status quo that pushes us forward. what is important is recognize it as a commonplace attitude, not an unusual dissatisfaction. a nice history lesson today. thanks, john. if you have questions or
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axter black. most family farms and ranches are a team effort i live around and help him with their cows now and then. i see them at the ag meetings at the school sporting events in the church and bigger the family the less help they need from outside their pretty self support as far as labor goes this bunch their responsibilities were pretty clear from feeding the cows to checking the dog water. the dad is usually the boss the mom is the head adviser pie baker child raiser chore divider, school coordinator birthday rememberer ten pm heffer checker check
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livestock peers he usually introduces her this way this is my wife. she does the books i do the important stuff like mend the fence and check the cows she makes sure the income's enough to cover the cost of farmin' she's tight as a new hat band i need to buy a new baler she figgers out if we can i spend lkin' with the scs or checkin' the price of hay or dealin' with the accountants and keepin' the banker straight i might be cleanin' a ditch out or hangin' a rusty gate she fills out all the blasted forms the government makes us keep she reads those regulations till she's fightin'em in her sleep me, i go
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the inventory or estimatin' bales she finds time to bake a pie between her business deals and i keep busy all the time just greasin' squeaky wheels i told my wife that we should think 'bout gettin' a hired man runnin' a farm ain't easy good managers need a plan she agreed that it weren't easy to manage and keep abreast "but, why," she asked, "get a hired man? i've already got the best." thanks, baxter. you can hear more of his humor checking out baxter black dot com. when we come back, machinery pete has this weeks' classic tractor tales. u-s farm report rboguht o you by kubotas bx and l series compact
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yoru local kubota dealer.
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machinery pete, the most trusted name in used equipment. welcome back to tractor tales folks! this week we've got some cub enthusiasts from west virginia. this '49 cub was restored by tommy bunner and his wife and it's a hobby they really enjoy doing together. this is the fifth cub they've restored, mastering all of the work from mechanical to paint. is the wife and we were a collector we've got the twelve twelve of them its a hobby i retired and we just got into it as a hobby while growing up my neighbor had one and i had a passion whenever see them i wanted one when i got able to and to afford one a i
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horrible but this is the finished product they're all the paint and the motor everything that we will we do know my boy i have known the decals for small farmers five acres or less so you got all kind of most people use them for the belly mower, side mower low around the fence rows but they're not something to get out to twenty acres in other very slow very it's only eleven horses motor on but they're unique you know what want right now with belly mower this one didn't come with a hydraulic and had taken off out of another tractor and put the hydraulic on and get everything tuned up and running running sequenced and tuned up but we we gotta went pretty good finding parts is kinda hard but they're out there its retired i just show them play around trade on the whatever today's country
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years of faith and committment. the congregation received a new church building in 1990. the altar was moved from the old church to its new home. our thanks to jean warren for sharing their story. as always we want to learn about your home church as well... salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us - from the farm photos ar enext. farm photos ar enext.
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farmers were busy harvesting casner got hte drone out. he says they're still a week away from wrapping up corn, but yields have been all over. the good drained soils are above average, whiel the poorly drained soils are below average. he's the same one who sent us this flooding footage a couple months ago. he says the biggest issue with those fields have been grain quality. mark putney had similar issues in elgin, iowa. that's in the northeast
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water on it. now, much of the crop is suffering from white mold. turkey river that runs by him has flooded three times in the past month alone. don't talk about water to matt keel. he posted this video on twitter, joking, saying harvest is going great. this is what the field looked like last week after those torrential rains hit hte state. scott was busy harvested peanuts this week in alabama. he says they are halfway through and the fields 3 thousnd pounds per acre. but he says the ground is getting dry, making it difficult to get the shaker in the ground. as always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag-at-u-s-farm-report-dot- com or check us out on facebook and twitter. for all of us at u-s farm report, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week,
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ength durability. the chevy silverado is the official news-gathering vehicle
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