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tv   U.S. Farm Report  ABC  October 30, 2016 3:30am-4:30am CDT

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os of farm journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report.> welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you over the next 60 minutes. the countdown is on... just a little over a week away from the presidential showdown. but where does each candidate sue? that's our farm journal report. soybeans are getting a demand boost, with the november contract shooting through 10 dollars. federal officials are investigating the issue of drift. but one ag group says epa is partially to blame. and in john's world... great
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to you by the dependable, long lasting, chevy silverado.> now for the news that moved the markets this week, as farmers face a bumper crop, it's not slowing down soybeans, as the november contract broke through 10 dollars this week. the rally driven by a bump in soybean meal prices, as well as short covering. demand has been a bright spot in the soybean market, with this week's export numebrs showing a 2 percent increase over last week, but that's 12 percent above the four-week average. the biggest buyers china, mexico and italy. it's been a slow soybean harvest in central illinois this year, as many farmers are raking in record yields. we stopped by to visit with farm journal field agronomist ken ferrie this week. he told me april planted soybeans are yielding much better than the crop planted in may, as the later planted crop suffocated from sudden death syndrome and emergence issue.
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field averages. fighting big tall beans, also some green stem. slowing down some of hte combine by 2/5 miles per hour. and can't cut too early or too late because of moistures, natinoally, soybean harvest is right on pace with average as 76 percent of the crop is harvested. farmers in the western corn belt still battling rain.. iowa is trailing the nebraska is 10 points behind. the nation's corn crop is 61 percent harvested. one point behind average. that's a 15 point jump in just a week. cattle prices trending higher since mid october. the momentum supported by usda's latest cattle on feed report, fidning inventory numbers smaller than expected. september placements also down, seeing a 2 percent reduction from last year. our
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ty to move the hefty amount of meat in storage. latest numbers shows september refrigerated supplies rose 1 point 6 percent from a month ago. but it's 11 percent higher than the 5-year average. the latest sterlign profit tracker showing some improvement, but feedyards are still seeing sharp losses. our reporting partners at drovers say at losses of 193 dollars per head, that's a 55 dollar per head improvement from last week. the situation is also a little better than a year ago when feedyarsd faced losses of 257 dollars per head. and pork producers also seeing red. sterling profit tracker showing farrow to finish pork producers lookint at 46 dollar per head losses, a dollar more than last e year. the chemchina buyout originally forecast to close by the end of 2016 but now regulators in e- u and other countries are asking for additonal time to get through the regulatory process. syngenta ceo trying to ease concerns that
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committed to the transaction and confident it will close. syngenta shares falling 9 percent on monday after the e-u triggered some doubt over the mega merger this week. the dow dupont merger may also be delayed until the new year. bloomberg reporting european antitrust officials are taking more time to consider potential competition issues in pesticides and crop seeds. the european commission this month delaying its decision deadline until february 6th as it seeks additional information about the transaction. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather. mike, it looks like many of our viewres are warming up this week. yeah that's right ty.e it's going to be mild for november for many parts of the country will get to that a second in the meantime the only area that we've seen a worse a main area for drought in a widespread area anyway is a southern portions of the mississippi valley you can see we go back a month, that wasn't looking too bad it was just starting to get dry but that area in the southeast is
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has got a little better over the last week in new england and also in the northwest still pretty bad though central and southern california you can see as we start the week a storm system moving through the upper midwest from our rain across the candian border, snow to the north of that in the central prairies of canada but you can see all the warm dry weather for the ohio valley most of the mississippi valley into the southeastern parts of the country by wednesday then we're looking at a couple storm systems kind of riding along ch will be some showers from the great lakes back into the high plains and into the southwest so this system will actually bring some more rain even get a fair amount over the last couple weeks in central and southern california and that next system coming into the pacific northwest on wednesday will be over the central part of the country on friday showers and thunderstorms up and down the plain states but warm and drive of the ojai valley in the southeast again
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our next half hour thanks, mike. it was an interesting week in the livestock market. we'll get teh details from matt bennett and don roose next. and don roose next. and don roose next.
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welcome back to u s farm t on the round tables with me this week don rosse of u s commodities and matt bennett have been a consulting firm only switch things up just a little bit and start off with livestock this week cattle prices last couple weeks had some decent some decent trades what supporting prices right now that i think cattle were oversold for the most part i think you know with most of our producers we looked and where they had floors set in place from earlier in the year we said let's go ahead and take profit on these and maybe move these down just a little bit because the bottom line for us is that it looked just like maybe things will get a little bit over done for the time being i do think that there could be more weakness on down the road i think for the time being we overdone enough to where we could see just a little bit of a bounce so matt sees weakness
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found a bottom well it looks like again tyne that we put in a good seasonal what low here short term but he still have a law supplies we have to deal with the fourth quarter five percent over year ago also when you get into one o five and one oh 8 on december cattle with supplies of a protein that we have come in as in the fourth quarter those were probably catch up risk management opportunities across the even in the second third quarter so matt heading in a twenty seventeen what concerns you the most with this cattle market i think our adequate and i think a producer has a stop and think you know what what's the upside in this market you know wherever they look a tie with the cost structures are a lot of guys were telling me that if they protect cattle and this one off four one five area a lot of them can still do ok and several of them been able to buy cattle just a little bit cheaper in the last couple months and maybe what they thought they were going to earlier but we've been very strongly urging them to keep force in this crisis don in this hog market timing were looking at you know not not
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we saw it i did a decent week but some analysts think that we could be going back to a situation we saw in the nineteen nineties with this with these pork prices is it that bad where you know the good news tyne is i think that we talked that up so aggressively and we've dialed in that bigger slaughter pat pace going down the road you know and really what we need to do is move back from the six to eight percent slaughter that we head down to where the government estimates are two to four percent and i think you have to remember the government in the fourth quarter said that the price was going to be forty eight to fifty dollars and were trying to move back into that level so i think what happened is we just got too negative too early and we are finding a dead cat bounce right now but probably has some risk management opportunities as were sitting right here going out the end of the week but we need china we need china to need our pork do you think that that that continues well and that was one of the big stories that we had the middle the summer early summer is at the chinese with an aggressively buy pork and they were they were pretty aggressive
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on their purchases that doesn't look like they're gonna show up anytime soon but for mexico's been a strong buyer and our exports do have to a pickup if we're going to expect to hold these prices speaking of demand some impressive demand out of that china for soy beans i mean this demand picture seems to just keep getting better and better it is is that what's supporting thes soybean prices as of late i think here lately the world vegetable prices are definitely been a huge catalyst you know whenever you look it is for the u s producer's ually gained on the dollar a little bit and so you know as far as our beans on the world market they've been quite competitive yes chinese demand is phenomenal i think that this week's export numbers were larger than expected and one thing i think on down the road is if we do have a really large crop and south america i don't want to think that maybe our exports are gonna stay as strong all the way through the years what they did last year so be just a little bit cautious but they've been great to this point that this is
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advertising it so have we are we learning anything from this wet yet that and that's a good point i think really what happened is exactly i think what we're doing is adding some risk premium to the market market the trade did get caught off guard with weather problems in south america in march and again we're start some rain issues in argentina just as we're about to start planting soybeans planting corn right now forty percent done so i think we're adding some risk premiume to the market into some weather issues down the road but when you're at ten twenty on this november beans or ten dollars on next year beans we need some weather problems if we're gonna maintain or move higher from this level so is this the soybean rally is this market today a little top heavy will ask matt that when we come back as well as look at this corn market what's going on with corn right now will do all of that when we come back on u s farm report
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soybean conversation matt do you think this soybean market maybe a little top heavy right now in my opinion when you look at all the things that we know this is a huge soybean crop we we have record yiles and another stop a bushel or to talk and sometimes five ten fifteen a bushel above best yields in a large part of the corn belt and so we had record acreage we got a record yield u s bean crops continue to grow. yes demand is quite strong but have we overdone this in the middle toward the harvest in my think so. and so i think that we need to be very cautious as to buy into the fact that we're gonna take this thing whole lot further want to be very careful to set floors underneath the market if i haven't done anything yet and not trust tjat this thing is going to get too carried away don before we knew we were going to have bean yields this big i mean we knew they were going to be large but not what we're seeing today we had said you know what we cant afford any hiccups in south america right now whatsoever is that still the
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're going to have updated production estimate it probably goes up a half to one bushels on soybean so, our carry out could be up around four hundred fifty million plus so that's a pretty big cushion but the thing we have to remember south america raises about one and a half times of soybeans that we do in the u s so we're not the big elephant in the room any more we can bridge the gap but if south america has some issues it'll show up again it depends on the demand but look at the chinese they buy almost weekly and i think the big issue is they do not want to get caught short beans in case we have a la nina issue in south america and by the way you know the odds are that they could have some weather issues in southern brazil in the northern argentina's i think that's partly what the rally is. partly about everybody trying to get covered here just in case and before an election a price and short covering yeah, last week you know we were talking soyoil was really what had been leading that rally which was which was odd is that still a case there is now as the soybean meal becoming a major major player
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soybean meal you saw that kind of reverse itself sais it look like sonya mills may be oversold laments or you know was maybe overbought just a bit and so yeah i think that's absolutely what's going on towards the end of the week corn prices whats supporting these prices as of late well the corn market really is caught in a big broad trading range we have a hard time moving out of the range we have in march a corn three forty three seventy weve got big carries in the market we've got adequate n out over time much as we're trying to do in soybeans right now so there's really no shortage of grain its just a matter of despair and just a matter redistrubiting in overtime so rallied for an end to a lot of resistance but the demand holds us on the downside if usda comes out and knocks this corn yield down a little bit you know because we are hearing some in were still seen good corn yields with some are saying you know i'm a little disappointed so what's a usda does not a little bit of yield
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the market's going to do after usda that's been proven well, if we're safely above two billion bushel carryout which we will be that can be quite safe and i did that gives you enough cushion i you know have you look at this corn situation you could probably take a bushel off fairly easily and it's not gonna hurt us in an extreme way but i i'm with you, i'm hearing a lot of producers are saying more so with corn and bean yields are quite as good as what we thought they were going to be outside of say a western and northern illinois. illinois in my opinion hasn't quite what i felt that it was going to be so maybe we'll get back down to two hundred under but bottom line is i think this corn you back off just a hair more looking at both corn and beans and looking at new crop should some of these producers take advantage of the prices that we're seeing today well when you look at acres next year and soybeans could go up five million u s a ten dollar beings are an opportunity from risk management standpoint in corn if you take a first down
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and half billion carry out next year so you can have large supplies not only this year but into eighteen if we don't have some weather problems or some reduced take her someplace around the world in my opinion of you look at these prices you really have to look again cost is well it's always like a profitanility and on corn lot of my producers are saying forty two seventy five dollars an acre less in input costs and whenerver you look at soybeans as don was saying were we were able to lock in place is a board above ten dollars at this point and we could be locked in a significantly higher acreage by all means i think that we need to be protecting these prices. what about corn in the bins i think with one of the bins you've got a keep in mind that you know we had a nice rally and basis you know has actually been fairly good but we stand at almost four carrying the market so a producer who's looking out maybe hege out to the july might not be such a bad thing to do because we get continued basis appreciation there and put that line their pockets as well we've seen some ddgs back up. does
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meal, which tried to moved to the upside but it just tells us that we've got big supplies out here argentine meal is a you having a hard time moving in the world market china's backing away from the ddg market so in almost a flat think it just goes to the heart we just have to big of a supply and the overall food supply all right well we need their closing thoughts we'll get
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welcome back time now for closing thoughts matt bennett ou well this has been a very large crop and a lot of people said what if this is a two thousand fourteen type rally and and i don't wanna buy and that just yet. we ve had a really good rally at this point i want a look at what kind of production have at times what the what the prices are the bottom line is as long as we're making money keeps us in the game things have been pretty scary the last several months. guys have been worried about profitability but i think we can lock in reasonable probability if we protect prices at these
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llied over eighty cents on soybeans since the first beginning of october last year sixty of a some cents so i think these are opportunities for producers to catch up on sales on old crop beans take a look a new crop soybeans and also on corn make sure you get some insurance on out to july, take advanantage of hte carry. because you're you can do much better with profitablity at this level. and scratch our heads because this rally came out of nowhere do that to. stay with us john that when we come back
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in central illinois this week, where farmers are pretty pleased with how this year's crop is turning out. but not all illinois farmers feel the same.
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a summer storm that pummeled our farm last july. while we knew it had taken a toll on our corn - leaning it over badly - at least we didn't have green snap, like some neighbors suffered. enough corn stayed erect to make it seem it might not be too bad. well, here we are today trying to harvest that corn. we're getting most of it up, but only at a snail's pace. don't get me wrong, i'm really not whining about our problem, especially because across the road is a field that makes ours look like a cake walk. and yes, we had wind insurance that will help mitigate the losses. all across the corn belt there are producers like us that will not be happily surprised by their yields and harvest speed. this is always the case. and we all
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lottery sooner or later. but the reminder of misery loving company kind of applies when only a few of us are affected instead of a widespread weather hit such as a drought. this is why it is almost physically painful to drive by a damaged field anywhere. unpleasant memories of our own difficult harvests trigger considerable sympathy for our fellow farmers. maybe you don't make this visceral connection until you gh harvest - i can't remember what it was like before my first bad experience. one thing i do know is even though we silently count our blessings when we hear or see of such struggles, the only thing that can really offer much relief is to get the field finished. so i hope we will be done with this effort soon, and i am just as anxious for my friends and their problem fields. because the truth is
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thanks, john. still to come, we're less than two weeks away from the presidential election. but where do both candidates
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urnal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report. welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead over the next half hour. it's the great ag debate in washington as the presidential camps go head to head. in customer support, a nice note from a loyal viewer. and it's all about weather when we head out west with baxter black. now involved in the 2-4-d drift issue this year, investigating drift complaints and damage in southeast missouri. just since june, missouri saw more than 40 thousand acres of soybeans and other crops damaged by what some believe to be spray drift. in total, the missouri department of agriculsture says more than 100 pesticide drift complaints have been filed on several crops such as soybeans, peaches, tomates, peanuts cotton and
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of dicamba, being sprayed over tolerant soybeans, which are more volatile and prone to drift. but epa has not approved new formulations of dicamba for use over the top. now its sending agents to at least four missouri counties looking for evidence of misuse...as part of a criminal investigation. i spoke with ron moore of hte american soybean association. he's partially blaming epa for not approving the new formulations of dicamba like they said they would. however, asa strongly reminding growers to follow all current label e xtend herbeicde gets approved, you still will not be able to apply baville or clarity which is a generic, or generic dicamba to xtend soybeans. that will still be off label, so we're telling farmes continue to use the herbcides as they're prescribed on the label, that way you don't have any problems with drift.>> the epa is expected to make a
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sue of drift has become an emotional one, even believed to cause of a shooting in a rural arkansas county. the county sheriff says a 26 year old suspect is in jail after he allegedly shot a man in his mid 50s on country road 38, which is northwest of leavhville. the shefiff says the motive may have been an argumkent over the spraying of agrucltural fields. no names have been released at this point. a former canadian trade minister says the trans pacific partnership doesn't need the u-s. on canada based real ag radio this week, gerry ritz said progress on a canada-european union trade deal is reigniting momentum on t-p-p, saying canada should move ahead on ratifying it's part of the eal. ritz says the japanese will have the measure through their upper house by the end of november, while new zealand and australia are also pushing the agreement. so there's no reason canada should wait on the u-s to make a decision t-p-p.
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the americans in this. we negotiated our own portions of this and there's a huge benefit for us. when you've got south korea now talking about joining,. taiwan musing about it, there's also talk about other countries choosing to join in instead of a sperate side bar deal, there's lot of future out there in the pacific rim. > ritz says even if hte u-s isn't part of the deal, t-p- p countries could still have access to the u-s market via canada. that's under the north american free news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the 90 day forecast, which takes us into january. mike, let me guess... it's going to get cold. tyne you're absolutely right for least part of the country including where you live we'll get a latte the second is not a star off mild in the eastern part of the country this week and little ripples coming from the west of the so that means storm systems continue to pelt the west coast and some of those will come an eastward in a weakened form is you can see on
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model is showing in an otherwise it's starting to turn colder after the first week of november and that's the trend my november rally for chapters of a loan all from the northern lights northward but it's going to start warm so it's going to turn cold at all shy of the warm air down to the southeast below normal for the middle of other so much of the summer anyway or ohio valley northeastern plains great lakes and northeast above normal out west and wait pan at a little bit more northern plains great lakes town of the ohio river below normal above normal for the south and the southwest precipitation in the southern areas probably below normal for a month from eastern tennessee northeastward and central colorado northwestward above normal precipitation time with just a little more than a week until the general election, both sides are pushing hard to pick up votes. a few days ago in washington d.c.surrogates for each presidential candidate were on hand for something we haven't seen much of...a discussion
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to dive right in with your permission and nbc's famed national press club the farm foundation farm journal media bush campaigns from the trail for answers on how a trump or clinton administration might handle agriculture and rural america the next president must fight for diversity in agriculture former deputy secretary of usda kathleen merrigan spoke for misses clinton do they have to comply with the same labor practices that we have to comply with e stage for donald trump fifteen percent corporate tax rate which means for most farmers which are incorporated small businesses rather than having to pay the personal income tax rate that the that we all pay and we will then be able the get the pass throughs done and will pay it that a rat in a traditional rate of fifteen percent which all corporation will buy so broad bands essential. she is really
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water that means transportation that means a lot of different things she's really interested in reducing the bureaucracy around community banks so we'll get some more capital more equity into rural communities both sides agreeing on the importance of a timely farm bill and keeping the farm and nutrition titles together both winning support about technology and renewable energy she has committed to five hundred million solar panels before her first her and she sees rural america taking the lead there the one thing that does bother me of the ninety one million gallons of ethanol again imported into this country when we're producing fourteen point two billion gallons of ethanol a rear regulations however found them sitting apart compliance issues on smaller businesses frankly have raised the cost of operations to the point that a lot of small businesses cannot
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t a bad thing they leveled the playing field they give certainty to business is they give certainty to our farmers and ranchers also what are the topics of immigration and farm labor war make sure that they understand we're not going to cripple our industry simply because we had a change of administration and we wanna make sure that they understand though also that we are going to establish the rule of law and we want their workforce to be legal so will give them time to transition to a legal work force in american agriculture is is really dependent on foreign born labor and we need to figure this out hillary clinton does have a plan on immigration reform shoes make commitments a hearse hundred daschle put forward a comprehensive plan the campaign has seen plenty of fireworks over trade and so agriculture based on the nature of the products they're involved is not likely to be affected by trade agreements one where the other the real issue that we have to
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of that trade agreements have on on the country writ large to produce our own fruits and vegetables that's not putting up a trade barrier and on the trans pacific partnership we are going to come back for a lame duck we'll see what happens but this is going to be a conversation that needs to be continued and so we really don't know what's in the trade agreement and in its entirety i think the transparency aspect of this is ave always positioned for a negotiated and were being asked is the american people to support a trade agreement we are in a what's in the trade thanks clinton. a new poll of farm country is out from agripulse. it shows, 55 percent of those surveyed say they'll support donald trump. 18 percent favor hillary clinton. 2 percent are backing libertarian candidate gary johnson. that still leaves 15 percent of
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those polled, 18 percent of females say they're still undecided. up next, john phipps the email i needed after a week of down corn. us farm report
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your show. i know sometimes your job gets rough, and you get tired, but keep up the good work. i watch your show every chance i get, thanks." please send me an address, garth. you deserve one of the clean mugs. there is no greater encouragement than your remark about making your life better. it is at the top of our to-do list at us farm report. but i want to clear up any misconception viewers have about usfr. tyne immediately forwarded this on to me, saying this guys is talking about you, but kind as that was, i think it is mistakes. when tyne replaced me as host, she also assumed full editorial direction for the show. other than my five minutes or so, it is her journalistic professionalism that makes the show what it is. more importantly, as a journalist
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f objectivity. tyne builds the stories we air from facts and opinions from experts or farmers themselves - not her own convictions. the polished product that is us farm report will stand up to any criticism of journalistic integrity and fairness. i was proud to be the host for nine years, but thank goodness farm journal found a true professional to take usfr to a much higher level of performance. my fingerprints are limited to a few minutes of you-tube quality video and the very best resear and opinions i can muster. if viewers think tyne has made their lives better, as garth remarked, they ought to see what happens to people who work alongside tyne. it's not easy to keep up. john, that was very kind of you, but he's just being humble. he has the hardest job of the show...
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easy task! but john is what helps make my job so fun up next, baxter black. with market prices constantly changing, its important to know where current prices stand. get market prices delivered to your mobile phone, just text markets 8 to
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welcome back. in our business, a lot of the coffee shop talk is about weather. it's also on teh mind of baxter black this weekend as we head out west. one thing that separates farmers from their city brothers is the weather and many times have you heard the local anchorman say gosh kimmy thats a really good news i'm sure getting tired of this rain well on the big city weatherman mans map has a yellow
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realize how far from nature some parts of our civilization have been removed but somewhere out beyond on the cattle guard farmers' standing on the edge of his wheat field watching the rain and smiling farmers and ranchers are students of the sky they spend a lifetime looking for a blue horizon or a black cloud to bringing them luck sometimes badsometimes they win 't looking at it through a window they are truly part of their environment and maybe that's why we don't take it for granted i've been out on j p point one spring after the thaw the water was so thick a fish could walk the road washed out all away but still a struggled ony i just drove my pick up truck from rock to rock. one
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ettled into snow. we had to dig a tunnel to put cows in a shoot and that today i froze off all my toes. and then down at the bear ranch the fog was so thick we didn't need a fence to hold them in, we gathered up some two by eights mailed into the air and hung the gate securely on the end the clipper flaps a cant remember which the weather turned off mighty cold down to minus ninety nine degrees but if you're looking for a hole to send someone you hate try the sheep corral the cat creek by the rise the only place i ever stood in mud up to my knees and had the dad gum dust blow in my eyes this is
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more of his humor online at baxter black dot com. when we come back, machinery pete has this week's tractor tales. what happens to the presideintial candidates who don't get
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time now for tractor tales with machinery pete. the most trusted name in farm machinery. welcome back to tractor tales folks. we're off to west central iowa this week for a classic orchard. owner will sick travelled from iowa to new mexico to pick up this international o6. he said it was in pretty rough shape when his son-in-law steve found it, so he
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very excess of tin works to keep protect the operator and most work in the orchard was pulling of sprayer in using the trailer and they might have a had a hand boom on for the trees and then this area between the trees for weed control has the extra tin work to keep you from getting slapped in the face repeatedly by tree branches as the same engine as an m farmall and i've son-in-law was on a job site in new mexico and saw this tractor along with an os6 let me know they were there a year later they were still there so we called on got them purchased than went down with a trailer and got em. when we got these tractorsthey were pretty rough shape not have the side shields were brought in here to my place and then i decided to keep the os6 and he took the o6 home to
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he did most of all we found some red dirt in the air cleaner which the only place i could think of a come from is oklahoma and my son-in-law mentioned it and steve mentioned it might come from southern california will probably just continue to show both of them just get em out on sunday and drive em around now i have herrold with this one on mine a little bit but if nothing not the easiest tractor driver doesn't have any church salute goes to the maranatha baptist church in plains, georgia. now, this friendly church draws quite the crowd every sundy, as it's also the church of president jimmy carter. he teaches sunday school frequently there, attracting people from all over. and president carter has one request-- if you want to attend his sunday school class, you must also attend the church service. it's a packed house when he's there, with even a meet and greet once he's finished spreading the gospel.
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475 people. as always we want to learn about your home church as well... salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. from teh farm photos are next. teh farm photos are next. teh farm photos are next.
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welcome back. some of our viewers dodged mother nature this week, but we have some happy farmers, glad to be wrappng up with harvest. nick is in northeast, alabama. he says he found the last six rows of harvest. but he says the last round was bittersweet... he hated to see such a good crop come to an end. mike said they also finished up in illinois this week. he's in the east central portion of the state and this is a look at his last 8 rows of harvest 2016. here's a cool slow mo video of harvest
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year, due to the amazing yields and some green stem issues early on. but when you put it in slow mo, harvest just looks so much more dramatic. area farmers told me they've been very fortunate with great yields this year. corn wasn't as good as 2014... but still a very nice crop this year. and zane jones took to the sky to capture their harvest progress. he says they're still a week away from wrapping up in northern missouri. but zane says they're extremely happy with harest his year. yields are much average. as always we want to hear from you you could send your photos or videos anything to us our address is on the screen for all of us that u s farm report thank you so much for watching be sure to join us again next week will actually be from kansas city will be doing our entire show from there so we'll see you next weekend until then have a great weekend
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