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tv   U.S. Farm Report  ABC  November 20, 2016 3:30am-4:30am CST

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when you pull the handle forward, redispense the beer under pressure at a controlled rate to maintain as much carbonation in the body of the beer so you'll see you didn't create a lot of noam and push the handle in the backwards position, utilize sound waves to provide the ideal density of foam to give you the most amount of aroma and a rich smooth and that's a hand pour. >> that's great. >> and this is a wow. >> it is such a huge dramatic difference. >> astonishing how it mellows out the flavor of the beer. you can do this with all kinds of beer. >> sure? >> we actually have a really great russian imperial stoult that was aged in bourbon barrels in here, and with this particularly beer you're really, really, the foam will bring out complexity and give you a great mouth feel, and, again, that's a
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this is a 10% abv which is very difficult to create a foam. >> that's a great beer. i should know, i'm a brewer. wow. the difference is shocking. >> this is not like an aeroator or decantor where you're reeling in the advanced palette. the difference between a hand pour and fizzics is dramatic. >> even for people not beer fans in the first place. >> where do people get it hand how mucho >> currently available at best buy, target, brookstone and amazon. current generation device $169 and our new way tap that will be launching this week is $129. >> so cheers, good luck with it. >> thank you so much. >> and that is the show for today. i'm contessa brewer in for becky quick. thank you so much for joining us. next week what to buy when. the best times to find holiday shopping deals whatever it is you're looking for.
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is u.s. farm report.> welcome to u-s farm report this weekend. i'm tyne morgan. we have a packed show over the ext 60 minutes. the u-s dollar hitting a 13 year high, and it's weighing on commodities. pressure on pork producers... < the industy is looking into a loss at approximately 40 dollars per epeat of 1998? that's our farm journal report. if you're in the market to buy, now could be the time... we're on the road with machinery pete. and in john's world.. the soda tax. is it a good idea or not.
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week, the u-s dollar hitting a 13 year high as the market digests what president elect donald trump's fiscal policies could mean for the economy. the u-s dollar taking out the december 2015 high this week. that strength acting as a wet blanket on ag commodities, weighing heavily on prices this week. our partners are profarmer break it down. grete says the strength of the dollar poses the largest risk on the wheat market, and then corn and cotton. dow jones inudstrial hitting a new high this week, after seven straight days of gains. the rally started after trump secured the victory last
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consoidation following such a sharp and unexpected rally . federal reserve chair janet yelling saying this week an interest rate hike could come , quote relatively soon. many analysts expecting that rate hike to hit in december, however, some investors now backing away, speculating hte possinility of another delay as the market still adjusts from the trump victory. it's that uncertainty that could push the fed to kick the can down the road another month. u-s farmers could plant the fewest winter wheat acres in usda reporting history. informa economics releasing its latest 2017 acreage forecast this week pegging winter wheat acreage at 33 point 7 million. that's a 2 million acre drop from it's previous forecast and would be the lowest planting since usda started keeping records in 1919. informa pegging 2017 soybean acreage at just over 88 point 6 million acres. that's a record
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ion to 90 point 8 million, a 3.6% reduction from 2016. corn weekly exports skyrocketing 35 percent this week. at 1 poin 66 million metric tons, that's also 47 percent above the 4- week average. unknown destination buys accoutning for 433 thousand metric tons. and japan purchased 255 thosuand metric tones. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather... mike, i can't believe we're already talking about thanksgiving. but it's also deer season for many viewers. how's the huntign weather shaping up? thanks tyne, well it won't be too bad at least in between the storm systems will show you those coming up in the meantime he'd love to get a storm system in the southeast this is getting bad folks a really exceptional to extreme drought in many parts of mississippi alabama georgia and some of the surrounding states as well if we go back a
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weeks he and see all that area's expanded its also been expanding westward into a parts of eastern oklahoma and eastern texas as well hasn't gotten any worse in the northeast hopefully it won't lead all expected to bid it probably will get worse still in the southeast over time here's what's going on on monday pretty good storm system double barrel one come in and now west us know in the northern rockies otherwise rain even some thunderstorms in the southwestern portions of the great lakes into the northeast will be some lingering snow showers in those areas heading toward wednesday then you can see that western system comes into the middle of the country so rain for wednesday the busiest travel day of the year across the country you can see from chicago western great lakes all the way down in new orleans it will be wet at times system starting to come in out west as well by friday then after
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snow in the northern fringe a little bit of snow up along the canadian border with the rain again moving in to the pacific northwest. back in our next half hour with a longer range outlook with such a powerful performance by the u-s dollar this week, we'll talk to the analysts about what it means for commodity prices moving forward. brian basting and jim bower join me after the break. u.s. farm report brought to you by mycogen seeds. visit mycogen dot com or your local mycogen seeds dealer to learn about our relenteless dedication to you
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h me this weekend brian basting of advance trading and jim bower of bower trading. what an eventful week in the stock market, in the u s dollar. we had the dollar hit it hit a thirteen year high jim. the stock market dow jones industrial had a new high. is it just the unknown of what a trump presidency will mean for our fiscal policy or what's driving those markets right now? we're going to see higher interest rates probably higher inflation and higher value of the dollar, all of which could have direct impact on agriculture in a pretty major way. but the market needs time. i made a note that, be careful about putting too much emphasis what happens between election day and inauguration day. because history says there isn't much correlation from that point forward in terms of the election to see if there's a major change. but the market senses
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we've over done it? do you think maybe the dollar has gone too far at this point? that certainly a possibility. one thing i'd i'd caution your viewers on as this, sometimes the timing of this can be good sometimes it can be bad for this reason. the higher interest rates and the higher currency value of the u s dollar right now is causing the brazilian producer to be in a great position to plant more corn. and so there's a window here where where if they're domestic price of corn spikes because the stronger dollar versus the real, we could see a significant increase in double crop corn acres in brazil in january february. so just a secondary factor . do you expect that to happen? and i've heard that that that jim planting and there is going extremely well. our scouts sent us a video. it looks like he was coming up through madagrosa de sol and it looked like the crop was about six to ten inches tall in good shape so far. they have a good planting progress ahead of normal but the critical time is the next twelve
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weather and weather related factors and that's that's a week first full two pages with having down there. weather is still key this point forward. the acreage mix, initially, are you thinking maybe more corn now since that seems like a more profitable option now when we look at the double crop situation? jim made a real good point that the soybean crop is planted so much earlier this year. last year they delayed the planting because of dryness and that delayed the harvest of soybeans. and delayed a planting of double crop corn. this year the beans january, we could see up one hundred percent the double crop corn acreage in brazil planted in the best window in january february. last year was later and it suffered drought. at the same time early planting means early harvest which means that it could eat into our exported and be a bigger competitor to us earlier on. so we have trump inauguration in january, possibly that late january time frame, maybe we could see some
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bit? it seems like some negative news that could come at us at once in this new year? it's going to impact not only what happens in brazil. as far as their situation and it's gonna come back and in fact what are farmers and ranchers are thinking here in the united states, i just looked at the ratio of soybeans to corn for next year, two point six two thirty two point two five a year ago. still favors planning and soybeans but the are things gonna change between now and then planning decision process? but the one thing about those arkets, i said do what the chinese do, not what they say. they are great traders. they have a way of understanding value. they have scouts in brazil also argentina and they're watching what's going on. i wouldn't be totally surprised if their crops develop as strong as it is, that they don't can't some of these sales they or purchases that they made .and i'm hoping not so far they've been very very aggressive on the buy side. as we get closer to the finality of
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mentioned acreage here, and informa released some acerage forecast this week. you know bearish on the corn acres that thinks that we're going to see more soybean acres, which it is the popular opinion of of many when you look at the prices today. but do you think they could see corn acres go under ninety million. do you think we can dip that low? it's a possibility. that seems a bit lower today here in mid november. but i would say that's a possibility. a lot of producers or maintain a more flexibility in their planting ago. i e they're putting on the nitrogen in the spring . those were decisions they made ten years ago in the fall. so i think that that that would seem a little low. but again the economics of the economics dictated down the road and producers will embrace beans. but also really low in the wheat acerage. the lowest in fifty years or maybe ever possibly. do you think that we will see that few of winter wheat acres go in? yeah i think
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significant reduction in parts of the hard red winter belt. maybe not as much as people thought earlier. same for soft red . there were some some really drastic cuts being talked out earlier. maybe not quite so high but still down as you said. and i do think that we right now and just have a difficult time getting producers to think their tension . we never want to cut production jim, but that's what we need in order to raise his prices right ?not only production here in united states. wheat is very global. in my feeling is, i think we're gonna see more reduction in inks at the present time. we had a little bit of improvement with the russian situation. that they had to bump their crop up a bit. about everybody else has got some issues with planting with at this level or lower. you saw what happened in oates when they decide to turn in their in their way of course the funds were short about a minute short about a hundred twelve thousand contracts a week. there's a spark there that something happens i had that we are going be a little bit more about all of the more interesting than a
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realize that? i know the usda comes out on january twelfth with their winter wheat seeding report. so that we have a closely watched report. our first estimate for two thousand seven planting mix. all right we have much more to talk about including a possible cut in oil production at this point is opec even matter and the big in the big game we'll talk about that when we come back on u s farm report u s farm report brought to you by kuboda b action l series compact tractors warranty
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he first roundtable we talked a lot about south america and the crop is going great. and we you know we've kind of talk that we need a hiccup to happened down there in order for us to have have higher prices here. so because the crop is it going in so well, can we bank on a record crop down there at this point? it's a
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we had extreme flooding argentina late in the growing season that really gave us a bump particularly in the soybean and soybean meal market. so no we can't bank on it. i think we have to respect the fact it has the potential be quite large. one thing i'd share with your viewers though is that if all the beans are planted in a fairly narrow window, which they have been, there also mature in a fairly narrow window. which means if there were something like a wet harvest in january for example in brazil, that could take the top end off that yield in and give the market opportunity. so be flexible on your marketing. get a floor in place but give yourself an opportunity in case a weather issue does arise. we talked little bit about interest rates a little earlier on a what a trump administration would mean for interest rates. were hearing yellen saying that that an interest rate hike is coming soon. i know a rate hike in december was kind banked in. but now some analysts are saying hold on her verbiage was it strong enough. that maybe a rate hike is not coming in december. what do you think is going to happen? what does she want her
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. the markets thinks that the present time they were gonna have higher interest rates down the road. may be higher than you think. you know i've i've heard of that dollar sharply higher than where it is that the current price. it had a devastating affect upon exports. it was tough in agriculture when the dollar got up more than one twenty. it was a brutal scene. we're hoping things are more tapered. more quieter. degree of promoting the u s internally more so than they have in the past. tax structure may change here now. that will encourage corporations to be a little bit more aggressive. so i think it's a combination of the matchign the global situation of the domestic situation. but overall the market says higher inflation higher interest rates and a stronger dollar. brian this week we saw some decent corn export sales compared to last week compared to the four week average decent by a friday morning for soybeans. but as long as we have the strength in this u s dollar, do these weekly export sales in the strength
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competition available. i don't want to discount the dollar for example. it's a very important factor. but what we discovered is this more of a secondary factor. so when you don't have the competition available for example from brazil this year, that we did last year in corn, we're seeing the world come to the u s for the moment, for the corn exports regardless of the strength of our dollar. but down the road if you get a rger a big rebound in brazilian production and a stronger u s dollar, that's not a good combination for exports down the road. with oil prices was all a little life earlier this week on talks that opec may cut production but in the big scheme of things, does opec even matter anymore jim? well their influence seems to be more diverse than what it has been in the past. but the question is what he'd do with them are the way that large in this chaos that in between lie four dollars per barrel to around fifty. so
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bauer trading is as we were looking for opportunities on these major setbacks, gasoline and fuel prices, the lock in long term usage factors for these large scale farm ranch operations from the protections from a hedge standpoint. . all right real quick switching gears cattle prices heading into this holiday season what are you expecting to close out twenty sixteen. well it's going to be a choppy road i'm afraid. of cattle is still ample supply of red meat out there. a competition strong. so the best case scenario is i think we're starting to see placements back off a bit. but i think first of maybe a choppy road for cattle in and we'll see if it holds on the day's low hundred dollar level. all right thank you both for gonna get their closing thoughts when we come back on u
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welcome back time now for closing thoughts. jim bower. let's start with you. most certainly is an interesting time with what all is going on from the political stand point,
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your enthusiasm because there's some issues out there that we gotta be careful. as far as producers moving grain, which a lot of them they're going need to do for cash for a reason for tax reasons, bower trading likes the approach of repositioning some of those sales to spread relationships--long term, bull spreads where the time value doesn't take as much as they do not fit there also seems that we review underwritten options strategies that as we did on a customized base and risk tolerance of the client. between those two strategies what we live on my plate instead went out ahead brian. i think with it the crops tucked away here tremendous amount of a bushels out there. whether it's corn or soybeans. what we're encouraging producers to think about now is defending their balance sheets most importantly getting control those bushels. by that mean we mean a tremendous amount of equity tied up in those bushels establish a price floor for those bushels be a different
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to participate if there is an issue in south american weather. but that control those bushel get control. thank you both stay with us john phipps joins us next to receive a free trial of the daily market letter and gain knowledge about current market conditions from the professionals at bauer trading view the markets like never
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on results from last
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several cities last week - a pretty surprising development given the anti-tax mood. the taxes are on soda or pop or whatever your word for sugar- sweetened-beverages - ssb's. varying from 1 to 1? cents per ounce, it doesn't seem like a big deal, but it might be, in two ways. first, as was emphasized in the philadelphia example, it is a relatively inoffensive source of revenue for hard-pressed city budgets. after all is you don't drink many ssbs, it's an easy tax to support. for that city, annual revenue of about 90 million dollars is expected. tying that revenue to schools or other popular uses helped get it passed as well. secondly, we have all been hearing for years about sugar consumption, and one of the largest sources of unneeded sugar is soda and similar drinks. they contain astonishing amounts. one can of
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much sugar in a cup just to get the idea. ssbs also include sports and fruit drinks with added sugar. there is some evidence that such taxes work. mexico instituted a fairly modest tax - 8 cents per liter - and saw ssb consumption drop about 6%. mexico has been struggling with obesity and diabetes epidemics for years. such taxes are not without after hitting a peak of about 1.3 cans per person per day in the 90's. like cigarette and alcohol taxes, many citizens are automatically exempt due to their consumption preferences. adding those folks to people worried about the health issues of added sugar, and the politics of soda taxes seem to be feasible. i suspect we will see more government bodies eye this
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ends meet... pork producers are strugglign right now to find profits. we'll look at why some are starting compare it to the 1998 pork crisis. that's our farm journal report after the break.
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from the studios of farm
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farm report. we have much mroe ahead over the next half hour. pork pressure hits producers-- but is it another crisis? that's our farm journal report. is cannabis the new cash crop for farmers? john weighs in. and if you're int he market to buy equipment, now may be the time/ now for the headlines, the latest ag barometer showing 1 in farmers are facing negative cash flows this year. but to lenders' surprise, deliquencies on loans aren't as severe as forecast. midwestern ag bankers continue to share concerns about the state of the farm economy. the rural mainstreet index dropped below growth neutral for 15 th straight month. 70 percent of bank ceo's indicate their bank is now increasing collateral requirements as result of falling farm income. bankers expect loan default rates to be
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the agricultural banekrs association conference in indianapolis this week. farmermac, a group that parnters with rural lenders, says while it's not a time of prosperity, we're aren't see a complete collapse of the ag economy like the 1970s or 80s. they compare today's tightness in income levels to the early 2000s.
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lion dollars is a steep climb although the company is confident. bayer says it expects to close the deal in 2017. its planning to submit applications to regulatory authorities very soon. the november election is having a major impact on agriculture, with california voters deciding to make the largest gmo free county in the nation. on tuesday, sonoma county california is hte latest county to ban farmers from planting genetically modfied crops. the county is 13 thosuand 734 square miles, but has a thriving ag economy. any acres already planted are grandfathered in, as are farmers who already purchased seed for next year. but after that, everyoen will have to abide by the enw rule. the legal battle may not be over. sonoma county farm bureau says the measure is vaguely worded adn would prohibit farmers from using technology that's necesssary to fight pests and diseases. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the national forecast. mike, some of
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officially break the warm snap we've been seeing? thanks tyne while i would say we're going into one of those patterns where we can go back and forth for a while eventually though i think it does turn cold in the east it's cold there now but its not going to stay there even sale a jet stream will warm things up again with the ridge coming into the northeast by wednesday another ridge out west but each of these little ripples as a storm system with it that will be bringing some moisture to many parts of the country by friday another one into the middle of the country and that will continue to move eastward there with time as well some more cold air above the arctic air still can a bottled up to the north here is my 30 day out look for temperatures going below normal from the year when atlantic states all the way through the great lakes near normal in the in the southeast and central plains adn then from texas through most of the west warmer than normal over the next thirty days for the 30 day outlook for precipitation alerts above normal most of the great lakes into the northeast below normal and forcefully in the southeast where that drought is
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mike. pork producers are facing tight margins right now. the latest sterling profit tracker showing farrow to finish producers lost 42 dollars per head last week, which is a dollar worse than the week before. at the same time, packers are seeing better margins at 46 dollars per head. that imbalance is weighing on prices across the board. so is this a repeat of 1998? that's our farm journal report the road this year, as both livestock and grains are feeling the pinch. but it's reminding some of the 1998 pork price collapse, fearing the inudstry is on the brink of another historic time.
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much strong equity position on the producer side. while the situation is different today, the fear is still there.
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months, espcially during hte summer that would indiciate some positive margins are coming> it's a strong risk management plan helping the maschhoffs soften the blow.
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egration of the hog indsutry.
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some difficult economic times, we remain optimisit analysts say we need demand to pick up both at home and around the world. but right now china is seeing impressive growth within their own hog industry, except producers there are seeing 70 to 80 dollar per marijuana marijuana
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you? well, it's a topic we haven't covered a lot on our show, but it's making headlines across the country. and it's thiss week's customer support. bob dillard noticed something important i think that also happened on november 8: "at what point do we begin recognizing the tremendous number of our fellow citizens who now can use a cash crop that is transforming the economies of colorado, oregon, washington and now over 12 percent of the population in
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ustry with a giant upside that will only continue to grow." bob, you make a great point. recreational and medical marijuana measures passed in numerous and varied states, but i do not think this is going to become a big money maker for farmers. i may be one of the few of my generation who did no experiment with marijuana in the 60's and 70's or since, believe it or not. so i'm relying on excellent information from michael pollan's book, the botany of desire. his explanation of marijuana breeding and production soon dispels any dream a lucrative cash crop for ordinary farmers. high quality marijuana production is almost entirely done in greenhouses with intensive lights, just like most profitable vegetables are grown
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the lower electricity costs are offset by higher security expenses. the breeding is highly sophisticated and as scientific as corn hybrids. production is also labor intensive, and highly regulated - aspects most farmers dislike. but most of all, big companies including tobacco giants have been poised for legalization for years and will bring enormous financial and technical assets to dominate the market. it only takes relatively local marijuana wiull still be grown, like backyard gardens, the big market will be served by bigger players. there is simply too much money to be made to be ignored by big business. states will likely encourage this industrialization to simplify regulation and maximize tax revenue. i support legalization but don't expect it to save many
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comments for john, which i imagine this is a topic we will hear about, , email us at mailbag at u-s farm report dot com, or send us a note on faceook or twitter. up next, better than expected yields could help balance sheets. and if you're in the market to buy equipment, now could be the
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hoppers are running full from such a large crop this year. this is the first year brent schipper is running this pair of combines. after leasing in the past, their previous provider upped the prices. and he says in 2016, it just made sense to buy. but buying this pair of combines wasn't an easy decision he was able to negotiate things like machinery size and tire size but overall, he says he's happy with the one year old machines featuring low hours and the preowned, and extended warranty.
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have to have that number down becauswe it's affecting ht ebottomline."> leasing didn't make financial sense for schipper, but for other farmers in the area, it's a reliable option during low commodity prices. schipper says inventory levels played into his advantage in a good deal machinery pete says inventory is what pressured prices to close out 2015. he says that's the first time in 12
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re more aggressive in moving equipment throughout the year.
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immediate impact on dealers. whiel that was short lived, it's also a golden crop in the field moving moods. , van wall is not only focused on today, but tomorrow... while tomorrow is uknown for schipper, it's tightening margins today forcing him to look at the necessities on the farm. next month we'll visit sloan implement in
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every year has become a popular option for farmers. when we come
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welcome back to tractor tales folks. this week were in southern georgia and in all when it comes to these anti classic tractors whether they need a little work or they've been professionally restored there's always a story about it and this week we're gonna learn about a
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roy carroll he's a pastor he was our interim paster at one time he gave me this tractor and it didn't look like this i think it was his uncle's tractor and he had had several years up there at his house and he just told me one day say they can get it if you want so i went and got it and we had a redo the motor and a head was cracked and got it back and painted it like you see it now and so about three years ago i recon it was what i called him i asked him would you come in drive in the parade for me and he did. and so i called him the next year that was asa do you want drive your tractor again he said no but i got a nephew that wants drive it and he came out of florida some were took him three four hours to get here and he came in drove it and
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t can make tears come in your eyes, he was talking about that i wouldn't know what can a memmories this kind of tractor brought back to him it was his granddaddies tractor and he said i can remember when i was just a little younger set in his lap and driving it i can to get tired and wore out some time working on them and i'll back off a little bit and i'll have to turn that channel on and see all them pretty new tractors coming through there that are painted next morning i'm going at it again you know, thanks, greg. well, we dont' have a country churchto share this week. so i wanted to take the time to remind you, that if you have a hometown church you'd like featured on our program, we'd love to hear from you. just sumbit it either by mail or email to the addresses on our screen, and we'll get it on our
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we have some farm photos to share this week. robert says his 8 year old son grayson was helping dad harvest this year running the grain cart. farm de in pennsylvania , 100 to 214 bushels per acre on corn and 30 to 74 on beans. by the way, grayson just turned 8, so a very happy birthday to him. some michigan farmers are wrapping up corn harest. eric is in the west central portion of the state. he says yields were better than expected adn they had good test weight. eric minks found not
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harvest 2016 is in the books. mitch larsen sent us this photo of the last rows of harvet 2016 which is now in the books. he says they have so much to be thankful for this thanksgiving. it was at ought july, but teh rains in august helped save the corn and bump up beans. he says they were expecting snow later this week, so rushing to finish fall field work before the snow hit. a lot of places including you going to get a little white stuff some places get a lot buy mayne not a white thanksigivng? it's always nice for hte kids to play outside. i see a big storm coming for thingsl ike that it's always good to play outside. we want to hear from you. seend pricurtres or videoes to us to dothat by email or facebook or twitter. for all us us at us farm report, thank you so much fo watching. be sure to join us again next week as we haev our annual harvest of thanks special it's a show you won't want to miss have a great weekend
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