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tv   U.S. Farm Report  ABC  November 27, 2016 3:30am-4:31am CST

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welcome to this special edition of u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you this holiday weekend. the stock market races to new highs. how long can it last? i personally believe i think it's trump continues his hard stance on trade...
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brought to you by the dependable, long lasting, chevy silverado.> now for the news that moved the markets this week, the dow , nasdaq and s&p 500 hitting new highs this week, an encore to an impressive performance the week prior. the stock market kicking the week off with a bang as the s and p climbed to all time highs monday. that marks the first reord close since august. the rally fueled by optimism over what a trump administration will mean for fiscal policy, which could reverse president obama's plan of raising taxes and increasing regulation. president elect donald trump continuing his hard stance on trade. he wasted no time in putting togehter a plan that he says is based on one simple core principle...putting america first in a video statement this week, trump says from day one,
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restore laws and bring back jobs, end quote. and number one on that list? trade.
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pulling back from its bullish run earlier this week. that broke a 10 day winning streak, whch is the longest in nearly 3 years. that helped soybeans rally more than 26 cents on monday, march contract reaching a 4 month high tuesday. meanwhile the latest cattle on feed report showing a one percent drop at the nation's largest feedlots from a year ago. the inventory sits at ten-point-seven million head. placements dropped five percent from october 2015, now sitting at two-point-one million head. marketings of fed cattle shooting up 5 percent, now at one-point-seven million those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather. with the weak la nina, how's your 90 day forecast shaping up? that's right tyne were take us through the winter basically over the next ninety days was starting off a lower starting to see is a fun atmosphere in fluxs were starting to go into a more
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the jet stream again saying things just kind of moving from west to east as we head through this week of a big storm system there over the middle of the country and that's going to be producing a lot of rain and snow especially farther north obviously on the snow part still a good trough by the middle of the week in and as we head through the week another one digging in and out west to leave some shots of colder air i don't see any true arctic air coming in quite yet but none the less winter starting to come on in parts of the country there's a a december outlook for temperatures on going below ains much of montana and southeastward into the central mississippi valley and into the ohio valley above normal for the far northeastern eastern canada and the far southern states especially into the southwest above normal temperatures are expected then we'd get in all more general cool down in the great lakes and northeast i think that for winter really starts to hit in january and again the plane state you'll go back in forth here will be below
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normal then for the southwest in many parts of the west and i don't really change that a whole lot on in the february below normal for much of the midwest ohio valley great lakes above normal then in the a southwest as far as precipitation above normal great lakes in the northeast the northwest and northern rockies below normal through much of the southern tier of states tyne thanks, mike. stock market reaching all time highs, a nice run in the soybean market. is this a tahnksgiving gift? we'll discuss next with john payne and dan hueber.
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welcome back this thanksgiving a weekend here on u s farm report. our market roundtable with john payne of daniels trading and dan huebert of the hubert report. what a crazy week again when we look at the stock market on monday hitting new all time highs, is it still the post trump election that's driving the stock market right now john? certainly look at the way the price of change since the night
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arkets. i think that's where you have to start it. essentially look it is like a new game. the game is essentially started from that point. we've seen some follow through. now i think it probably looks to follow through the election at that point, the kind of honeymoon period would end for mister trump and then we'll look at the policies he'll set and how the market will react to it. but shorter term here will have the bond markets first and foremost. they're telling us that things are different right now. so you have to expect the commodity markets will change in that fact. what do the bond possible rate hike is that pretty much expected at this point? i believe so. you know we really think the bond market headed lower for the last couple months now. so they very much have been setting the stage for the fed to kick up a raid here in december. i don't really think anybody thought they were going to have a pre election but now that we're beyond the election, there could be no accusations that it was trying to favor one candidate over another. so i think in december
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point bump, which is realistically not very much but it hasn't changed nonetheless. so in the markets tend to try to anticipate those kind of changes. at the same time, u s dollar we had seen a pretty good run on the u s dollar i think the longest bullish run in three years. where do we sit on the dollar index? we saw it dropped a little bit. what happened? what stopped ? well have a couple of things. i'll first start say the dollar index is essentially a basket of currencies with the yen, the euro, and british pound. so when those currencies are operating in the same policies that the u s government is, weak rates, you have the dollar which looks like it's diverting here. it's going to show that spike. but we look at the markets and for the dollar versus say the russian ruble or even the brazilian ria the last year. so we look for a little bit of volatility here is that the president takes over but those currencies rally could be beneficial for the commodity markets. the u.s. dollar index rallying, you would say counter
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e the other markets rallying that could be a good thing long term. then do you think the dollar has more room to the upside? ipersonally believe it's probably exhausting itself with the current move we've seen. i think it was already kind of on pins and needles coming into the election. markets again don't enjoy shock, they received a kind of a shock. of course the day of or the evening of the election, just a huge volatility in the first swung lower then swung back higher. but i think now we've had this kind of trump-flation idea, but it's all self perpetuating. here we have the idea that we're going to see interest rate hikes, possibly because the drop administration may be a little more positive towards the gdp growth. which course means we're going to try to push interest rates higher, which in turn mean could it track more buyers into the dollar. it would really seem like we have put the cart way ahead of the horse at this point time. so it might have to rebalance a little bit just find out when reality does happen
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thankful for john, but a sweeping rally on monday is another thing that we could be thankful for. what drove that impressive bull run on monday? we're continuing to see shipments at record levels and were well above the pace from last year. a lot of folks are pointing toward some slowing that will happen in a in the new year with exports, but we haven't seen that yet. and right now with the dollar doing what it's doing , and the three markets that are tied in the chinese markets right now to be copper, cotton, and soybeans ery well post election. i look for beans to run out of steam as we get into the end of the year. as far as how much we're going to grow next year, that's still up in the air. we know the acreage story will be big, but yields are still uncertain in south america and in the u.s. until those are figured out, i think we're probably on trend. soybeans have been so resilient. you know when we look at this record crop out there, it is impressive that that's where these are at the level we see today. but also it
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little bit. so can that last? the palm oil market really has been stagnating here the last few weeks. we continue to hear stories about it. and really the issues with palm oil really go back to el nino and the drought they suffered in malaysia and indonesia earlier this year. we're probably beyond that to a certain extent. of course on a worldwide basis, there is been pushes to move further away from palm oil, which i guess is not necessarily bad for soybean oil to begin with, but absolutely. this this bean market is impressive in the respect that crop by a large margin following a record crop in south america and here we continue to hold beans at the 10 dollar plus area, so i mean everybody is for probably two years now, has second guessed when is this chinese demand a stop and it just does not stop. so i think there on a program to rebuild inventories. they're probably trying to increase or improve their protein diets a little
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on cotton and will look a little bit more in china and south
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welcome back. well john mentioned cotton before the break. let's dive into that a little bit more. john cotton harvest is running behind in texas right now. what kind of uncertainty is that creating in that's coming down the pipe. so the folks who've been essentially bet on the harvest coming out of the the ground here and meeting that december contract, we essentially came to the realization last week that that wasn't going happen. so we saw the front months of cotton, march and december of this year, really really jump this week. and then the deferred contracts kind of stay stagnant. the story going forward here i think, is not going to be about production it's just going to be about
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that cotton was continuing to be slow. high winds in west texas to keep him out of the fields. but i will say we mentioned in the segment before, soybeans, cotton and copper have really performed on the stage post-trump. so the idea for a sell-off here would be i think a little bit premature, but we're looking in acreage for next year along with a pretty substantial carry out. for where we sit, loking at the other row crop markets might be beneficial to do some hedging here looking to jump in the markets and protect the price, profit margins. but betting on harvest is always a difficult thing because you're betting on mother nature. what's the story for corn moving forward? corn is coat tailing with the soybean market that's kept helping support it. all that said, by no means is it the demand we continue to see in soybeans, but the demand has been relatively solid. we saw the usda boost of the export numbers on the last report and again i think you have to say similar to beans, it has, for months, been bombarded with
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i you look at commodities on historical basis, that's traditionally how they'll bottom. then they get into periods of long base building, but they ignore the really negative news. a lot of people would not have been shocked to see a corn thirty forty cents lower than we got back in the fall time. and it didn'.t and we're really at that stage of moving from the supply mentality to more of a demand mentality. in the course then thinking about what could happen for next year. so i think we have the worst of it behind us. but probably limited upside potential at that point as well. as the conversation does move to demand is the demand there? the demand for the physical supply is there, but i like to look more like a speculative demand. and we've seen and soybeans may seen in cotton where you've seen seen speculative buyers come in and push the price , but in corn and wheat, we still have a stagnant picture with the shorts are in the market and has have really been difficult to broken out. so we kind of look at what's going to make a change. is it going to be u s acreage? is it going to be a south
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right now to the better made in the short side and if those folks will come out that could be some additional demand on top of the physical supply. so should we be taking advantage of some these twenty seventeen prices or do you think it's it's too early at this point? i guess personally, i look at the swinging market say certainly when you have a new crop soybeans above the ten dollar mark, probably not a bad time to take advantage. i think a lot of people can make money at that point. corn, at four dollars boy that really touch and go for a december corn the last two years a stop between four twenty four fifty. anytime you're in that realm certainly take some take advantage of it. but you know right now you've got eleven months of risk ahead. so it's a lot of uncertainty out there just yet. and entering into this holiday season, looking at the funds specifically, do you think we'll see more volatility come into play over the next few weeks? sometimes we don't look at these. we're busy over the holidays, don't really turn up
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but is that something may be that we do need to keep in tune with that as we move through this holiday season? the volatility will come from the up side. because i think in the case of corn like dan mentioned, a lot of folks are looking prices here saying right on the edge of profitability. so if if they put on hedges are the markets would run on a south american weather scare, we could see some of the shorts bailout. and that's what you want take advantage of marketing side. talking about south america, you know we're seeing some planting, some wet weather, some planting delays in argentina, but it's been really good down there. so does that minor news story does that matter at this point? you know probably much too early to build a lot. granted brazil as whole army , the people we listen to that they're down on the ground down there say you know as in every year, there's some trouble spots here and there, but as a whole it looks like a pretty solid crop. argentina, we were looking at losing some soybean production there anyway as they try to shift a little bit back more toward corn. two, three million metric tons off the high end of the crop. you know certainly not a disaster by any stretch of imagination. we're gonna have to see something a little more
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thoughts of stay with us will do that when we come back on u s
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we have on the upside.i guess i refer to it as we're going to spend some more time in the desert. we probably don't have a lot of risk to the downside but without a stimulus to drive us higher, it's hard to get a big challenge going to the upside as well there's an old adage in the commodity markets and if the bulls get turkey for thanksgiving, the bears are going to get it for granted this turkey might be a little small, but it still had been rallying at this point, so i tend to think we're goign to be in for an extended period of sideways kind of stagnant markets so take advantage of hte rallying being being here i appreciate it. stay with us, john phipps has some thanksgiving commentary when we come back
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has some thanksgiving commentary when we come back
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some of you are probably still recovering from devouring a big meal this week. for john, it marks a special season... i'll let him explain from teh farm. ven by the most traditional rules, the celebration of thanksgiving marks the beginning of the christmas season. which
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evolving position on what the proper amount of illumination is for this season, but this year, my focus is going to be on the led - light-emitting diode. led's are rapidly replacing incandescent bulbs just about everywhere, and the fact they are so much more efficient, using a fraction of electricity and generating far less useless heat, has a huge impact on our entire electric consumption pattern. our power consumption per capita has been essentially flat for twenty years, for example. many of you remember the dissatisfaction with mandates to switch to more efficient lighting devices, and to be fair, one solution - compact fluorescent lights (cfls) - were poor substitutes. by we've worked through that transition period and the price of led's has plummeted to switching is a real no brainer. not only do they take much less
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longer. this means the flashlight you depend on once every decade or so during a power emergency not only works, but is far brighter than the old versions. it means you can have more light available is compact form and use triple-a instead of d-cells. they've even started getting the colors a little warmer and closer to what christmas lights should look devices, you can get a lot more stings to drape over landscape without spinning up your electric meter or busting your budget. sometimes we have to go through a grumpy transition phase to help new technologies break into mature marketplaces. from catalytic converters to low flush toilets to leds, that's something to remember when confronted with change in the way we do everyday things. you'll forget about the
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when we come back, it's a tribute to all the men and women who weave this great industry together. 2016 proved to be another challenging year. but that's not stopping farmers from counting their many blessings this year. harvest of thanks is
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welcome to harvest of thanks [music] [music] wonderful time of the year as the frantic pace of harvest winds down and we can reflect on another season of abundant effort. the important work of farmers and ranchers is not always easy. but as we get to witness every day - it is fulfilling as farm families help put nourishment on our tables....and optimism in our souls. now, nearly 400 years later, we still celebrate the strength of pioneers who faced
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call america. andrew mccrea begins our harvest of thanks. america's farmers and ranchers dedicate their lives to feeding and clothing our country and millions of others across the globe. before the trip it was just an ordinary ship. sixty-six days later, she would go into the history books as on of the most famous vessels to cross the atlantic whit perry, director of maritime operations at plymouth plantation this was a ship that was available. it was a very common merchant ship that would have been available for hire. the passengers were considered cargo, and the sailors favorite kind of cargo because it was self-loading cargo. this was the u-haul of its day. for the sailors on the mayflower, this was a long run, but not uncommon. it was a different story for the pilgrims. for the passengers this would be like you and i going to the moon. they had no idea what to expect. incredibly courageous. this wasn't something that was done very day. worse than that, the 102 passengers probably spent most of their time down on the
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sional fresh air. their charter said they were to go to new york. conditions altered that plan. the captain did attempt to go down the coast toward the intended landing spot, but poor weather and treacherous shoals sent the mayflower to a landing spot at today's plymouth, ma. captain christopher jones didn't just dump the pilgrims out and leave though. he was very patient they had to anchor quite far out. they kept using the ship to live on while they everyday rode in on their shallop and ships boat to build homes on land. the mayflower did remain off shore for about four months. only 53 of the 102 passengers died plus have the crew perished before the mayflower left for home. today you can come to plymouth, ma and see a full size replica called mayflower ii. the brightly colored ship resembles, as best as is known, the original. mayflower ii if a awesome example of a early 17th century
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blueprints of mayflower ii. what did have in documentation we knew the ship was 180 tons burdened which means it could carry one hundred and eighty one ton barrels and knowing that figure, and using plans from ships of that day, they could recreate what they believe the original mayflower looked like. the reason that some of the merchant ships were decorated with different colors and things up high, what we call the bright work, is so that they were easily identifiable by merchant captains from far away. so they wouldn't normally have the name of the vessel on them, because the master could read, but a lot of the sailors couldn't read. although it's been nearly 400 years since the first mayflower sailed into this harbor, it's a story of courage and cooperation that still captivates americans. a story that we especially remember each thanksgiving. traveling the countryside, in plymouth
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f farming. but for many soybean growers in the midwest, weather was nearly ideal. next, we'll meet an illinois farmer who is harvesting the crop of his life with his family by his side. later, you'll meet a farmer who knows what it's like to run a team of horses to bring in the crop. but he'd rather do it from the cab of his new combine. we'll share the wisdom of a 90 year old farmer that you don't want to miss. and through-out this show, you'll hear from farmers through-out the country who share their blessings....like keith sch-raider of defiance, ohio.
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there's no such thing as a perfect year. and 2016 produced it's fair share of challenges
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battled flooding in texas and louisiana. late summer and early fall more than a foot of rain dumped on farmers in missouri and iowa. the aftermath? this shocking footage and damage to a crop that was planted in record time. let's not forget hurricane matthew that raged along hte atlantic coastline. farmers in north carolina saw 30 inches of rain in only three weeks. it destroyed the cotton crop in areas of the state. peanuts ss. todd boyd says farmers were banking on a good crop this year just to survive and now many are left with question marks as to where they go from here. but it was drought that left scars in the northeast. farmers from pennsylvania to maine grappling with the most extreme drought they'd seen in over a decade. feed for the dairy industry became scarce, and this fall, it forced some cranberry growers to harvest their crop by hand. dry harvest
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for some, they didn't have enough water to flood bogs.. and picking by hand requires much more labor and takes a lot more time. despite all those challenges, if farmers prove one thing year after year, it's they know how to prevail. mother nature seemed to shine in august, bringing some much needed rains to areas, just when the soybeans needed it most. and the result? a record crop with many veteran farmers telling us they harvested the best crop of their careers. even having to outrageous numbers, the yield monitors couldn't be right. in roseville, illinois. incoming american soybean association president ron moore was just as shocked with the bumper crop in 2016... the best crop of his life. but to bring in such a bountiful harvest with family by his side, made harvest of 2016 one to remember. with 39 harvests under his belt, ron
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now quite common. the western illinois farmer and vice president of the american soybean association isn't alone.. he's one farmer of many, seeing a record soybean crop this year... what he says is a testament to good growing conditions and good varieties. but yields aren't the only thing that's evolved over the years on the moore's operation. there's probably 100 pods on this plant, that's just amazing."> ron and his wife deb work on the farm.. and after a move to chicago, michael, one of ron's sons came back to the operation
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i thought what do i want to do? and started thinking about farming."> while farming is this family's full-time job, ron has another responsibility- representing soybean growers across the u.s. he says asa is putting attention on policy and legislative. now we're ramping up the people we have working in regulatory arena in washington d.c."> policy is one thing, demand is another at home and overseas... he believes china
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tinues to buy soybeans at a very fast pace."> while moore fights for farmer's in washington... he's thankful for his family back home and a bountiful crop they get to harvest together. thanks, tyne. when we come back we head to texas - a state known more for its cotton than corn. but that's where we meet a corn grower who's thankful for the work he loves. and later, we'll meet a 90 year old farmer who's gift wasn't just a record crop this year, but a shiny new machine to make one of the best times of the year even more enjoyable. but first, bryon chvatal pronounced woddle of prague, nebraska is thankful for more than a bountiful crop this fall.
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it was records for many bean growers. but corn farmers also look to be setting a new historical high in 2016. even with prices being down, bountiful bushels are helping to keep families in the game. for national corn grower president wesley spurlock, of stratford texas-- harvest is always the first step in preserving the family legacy the unconfined roads, and endless horizon's of the texas panhandle continue to congregate amid the foundation of the spurlock chapel. my great
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nto the texas panhandle one of the first things they did was start a church. first built in 1903, it's been a place of hope and new beginnings more than a century... that sentiment continues to drive the spurlock family farm. we're thankful that we're a multigenerational family. we've got the 5th sixth and 7th generations out here on the farm working and in ownership. my grandfather in 1898. so we've been in since the late 1800's early 1900's and harvest in "2016" will cut it's own path in that family legacy. we're looking at 230-240 bushel corn right now and we're tickled with what we've got and/// from the ground... and from the air...its clear, this year's crop found a way to hold on. the rain kind of
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or about 2.5 weeks were at about 100 degrees during the day. it may not be the biggest yields we've ever seen but anytime we get these types of yields it's a great harvest. with family by his side, this president of the national corn growers association is already looking at the next horizon. testing new technology, watching prices and preparing to take on the 2017 farm bill. we just really want to work hard to make sure some of the problems in localized areas can be cleaned up corrected so that everybody in the us in all farms across are getting a fair shake out of the arc and plc payments. regardless of how those battles go.. it's here.. we don't get a check monthly or weekly our check comes when that harvest shows
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raise families and to live and enjoy life. his family has stood, tall, steadfast, and believing in the promise of a better future. thanks, clinton. and next we'll meet a 90 year old farmer who waited his whole life for one special gift. but first, fred pond of scott ohio is thankful for nice harvest weather, despite a challenging growing season. always thankful just to get out on a beautiful day like this and enjoy the for family, thankful for blessings that
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harvest is more than just another year's crop. oftentimes, the memories cherished are with family members moving in and out of the field. we have a story of an unspeakable bond between a father and son as they harvest another year together. betsy
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northern illinois farmers know the crop brings a good crop. "this is probably ten to fifteen percent above average, but the memories in the field may be sweeter than what ends up in the cab, especially true for father-son duo don and john kennay. "i was born in 1926," "i've probably harvested seventy years or something like that." "i'm at forty years of farming. i don't know if i will make it to six years, but i'll try," said john kennay. major milestones they're making try," major milestones they're making is special, marking don's ninetieth birthday. "i used to do a lot of bailing hay and when you get that aroma in the hay, you just get that feeling it's time to go," don had that feeling for well over seventy harvests, with a
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you shove it off and go back again by hand," the man who remembers farming with horses got an updated 'horse-power' of his own this year. that's a new combine. don 'horse-power' of his own this year. that's a new combine. don "it has a lot of bells and whistles to it!" "i never see him making mistakes. he's running all the bells, whistles and toys on it as well as anybody can," some of it i don't know if you need or not, but that's the way it goes nowadays," but don's fancy new equipment doesn't make him forgetful of the past. he keeps
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th horseshoes, instead of big rubber tires, it's a reminder of harder times, when harvesting over an acre was a big day. "it's probably good luck. i don't know. we are having good luck today," there may not be many farmers don's age left working in the fields, but he's not planning on handing over the reins anytime soon. if i can wake up, i'm going to pick corn!" "i'm just awful proud of him. he's put his think don couldn't get even more impressive, he says at night, he'll climb up and down the steps on his equipment... just for a little exercise. maybe that's the key to staying young? still to come, john phipps joins us for his annual harvest of thanks message. and if you're trying to guess what he's
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after a long and mostly unpleasant election year, you may be able to guess what john phipps is thankful for. and you probably would be wrong. john joins us from his illinois farm to explain why...in his annual thanksgiving message. suppose someone close to you - a friend, a child or grandchild, or even your spouse - came to you and said, "i'm thinking about running for a public office". it could be anything from township clerk to state legislator or president. what would your initial reaction be? i'm guessing it would be something like mine: "are you out of your mind?" public office holders - politicians - are held in near contempt by the vast majority of americans. they rank near or at the bottom of respected professions. there is an entire industry devoted to scrutinizing every aspect of their conduct
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faults and failures. as we have just seen, the process of choosing who will hold public office is brutal - even at the lowest levels. and once in office, it seems most rules of respect and courtesy are no longer applicable. we grant them few boundaries of privacy and automatically suspect every motive. i think we have worked into a vicious cycle. the cynical expectations of the american public, and the enthusiasm we pour into finding personal and ideological flaws in our candidates has made public service an almost unthinkable choice for our best and brightest. as a result, we should not be surprised by the personality types that will choose to endure this process and seek such careers. so this thanksgiving, i'm reminding myself to be thankful anyone
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rest of us would not. and i will be thinking about what i can do to weaken this corrosive feedback loop so that my answer to my friend considering public office can be, "great, you are just the person we need. how can i help?" well put, john. thank you. as we close out this thanksgiving salute, it can be difficult to put into words how we feel about this business we way to persevere... and 2016 is proof of that. . may your harvest be full of thanks-and your blessing's bountiful. the hard work, dedication and passion are appreciated by all of us on this program and across the farm journal family. thank you for all that you do to ensure our tables are full and our thanksgiving's a special time with family. god bless.
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