tv U.S. Farm Report ABC December 4, 2016 3:30am-4:30am CST
nanal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report.> welcome to this special edition of u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and we're on the road this week at the executuve women in ag conferene from chicago illinois. here's what's in store over the next 60 minutes. it's been chaos in the cattle market, but some analysts think we've finally found a bottom. the pasture may be greener in 2017, but 2018 could be another rough ride for cattle producers. soybean prices changed course this week. it's an all-female panel to disect the direction of these markets. as wild fires raged, ravishing parts of tennessee this week, drought stricken southeast is finally saw much needed relief.
report - brought to you by the dependable, long lasting, chevy silverado.> now for the market related news, usda revising its net farm income projections for the year. and with struggling commodity prices, it's a third straight year of falling proifts on the farm. 2016 net farm income is forecast at nearly 67 billion dollars. (66.9), the lowest since 2009. that's down more than 17 percent from a year ago, and a 30 percent drop in the last two years. cash receipts expected to fall 23 point 4 billion dollars, mainly due to a drop in the livestock sector. usda expects a 19 percent increase in direct government farm program payments, to nearly 13 billion dollars in 2016 avian flu is spreading rapidly across europe
with the largest a-i outbreak in nearly two years. and thousands of birds also being culled in europe, as highly pathogenic h-5-n-8 avian influeza is spreading there. the world organization for animal health confirming a-i in 10 european countries, including croatia, germany, sweden and russia. an estimated 27 thousand birds in europe have died in just a few weeks from avian flu. hong kong and ukraine lauching bans on poultry and poultry products from those affected countries. cotton farmers in texas are still trying to play catch up after a late freeze. the latest usda report showing 77 percent of the country's cotton crop is out of the field, that trails average by 7 points. arkansas, lousiaina, mississippi and missouri have all wrapped up this year. but texas farmers are behind average by 14 points. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us from our studios with a look at weather. mike, the southeast getting a much needed drink this week. does that moisture pattern
another wet system moving through the southeast so the drought monitor from this past week does not really include the rain that you've seen over the last week or what's coming this week and so you can see it is still showing exceptional to extreme drought in most of the southeast hasn't really changed a whole lot the rest of the country in fact we go back a month you can say it wasn't nearly as bad in the southeast. it was getting there but it's gotten worse and worse and worse, but again as late as one does not include the rain we've already seen in those areas so i think it will improve at least some it'll take awhile but it will improve at least some when we look it next week so there's that storm system over texas as gonna move through the southeast spreading rain in most areas again just a bit of rain in the eastern portions of the great lakes here is a cold blast coming down the storm system was snow are right behind it throughout the in northern portions of the rockies as we head into wednesday then that
cold air coming in behind it is in the form of snow. now on our computer models faster than some of the other models with the cold but that's typically what happens so i'm going with a faster version of it just so you know another storm system out west bringing some rain and mountain snows in on wednesday by friday then we have the colder air in the northeast where we have a string of storms can come in through the middle of the country with snow to the north rain to the south in most locations now will be back in our next half hour with a longer range forecast up next, it's our annual all female panel from here at the executive women in agriculture conference. naomi blohm, julianne johnston and angie setzer join me from next.
behalf of america's farmers welcome back to u s farm report. as i promised that all female roundtable with us this week from the executive women in agriculture conference here in chicago illinois. we're going to jump right into things. the soybean market it's so volatile lately. we had a nice runup last week angie this week we did see some price pressure. why have we come down off those highs we saw last week ? i guess when it comes down to it, the further we move ahead, everyday that we go ay that we don't see a significant south american weather issue develop, and that's really where we're at right now is we need south america to kind of stumble again. most people don't realize that last year their production loss that we saw is significant. three hundred million bushel which was a huge difference if you look at where our carry out started to where it finished, was all based on south america is seeing a production cut. so right now south america's crop looks good. the brazilian and argentinian farmer right now are
but remember their crop problem came late in the season last year. that's going to be something to keep an eye on because la nina still is around. definitely. but they did have a problem last week. we saw pretty good run in soybeans. so what was that momentum lead by? that was commercial buying in china because of the soybean meal demand and the soybean oil demand because of the problems still in malaysia with palm oil production. so that demand is what is making a market move. and we saw that again today in the weekly sales report with huge number for this time of year for soybean oil exports. so it's that chinese demand. but when we look heading into january now, and we see some of the south american production come online, it seems like we're gonna have some intense competition where demand will not be able to continue at this pace. well because of planting beans so aggressive this year in montegroso, so they're gonna have about twenty five percent of the crop harvested earlier than normal. and that kind of
t of soybean export window here. let's keep in mind that brazil because their supplies were tight last year, may not be as willing and aggressively selling early in the marketing year like the market's anticipating . their pipeline's starting and more empty than what it has in the past. there is going to be some domestic suction that'll happen that'll keep them from hitting the global market, but with their pace of planning starting so quickly that will be something that could cause perhaps the the buying side of things. hard to get bullish news in that situation. so considering that considering all these and new crop beans of the something that we should be pricing right now? i've been doing small increments to get started because you're out a ten dollar level .and it's a great place to get started especially when last year at this time it was so gloom and doom. and if the weather in south america and something amazing and we have an amazing crop here again, prices absolutely could slide lower. at
happens in south america. so i would get started, but i would also be open to re owning it because if weather does become an issue, the market has the ability to keep moving higher, especially when you look at global stocks to usage ratios. it's not as bearish as the number on the stocks to use ratio, and the trend of days of supply globally, is actually trending lower. do you think soybeans are are fairly priced right now? because i'm amazed that they've been able to hold onto that $10 handle for so long. absolutely i do think they're fairly priced because china continues to buy beans aggressively. and we continue to export beans at a rapid pace. so i do think the price is fair and i think this recent correction that we see is a correction in a bull market unless that support is violated then turn the tide has changed. angie switching to corn, we pretty much know the story there. not as much old crop was sold not as much a new crop of course a soul because
those individuals that still have old crop corn in their possession what is your advice for them? it depends on if you're paying for a commercial storage or if you have it at home. i mean that's a huge difference. if you're paying the elevator to hold on and you're taking full cash price risk, you're putting yourself in a situation that could go from bad to worse. if the market doesn't move, and you continue to accumulate storage costs and the bases stays flat or its wider in significant amount of corn, you're really running the risk of of paying a lot of storage and selling your corn for at or below the cost at harvest time. so make surely you have commercial storage you're looking at alternative pricing at harvest time. at home you have to know what you're local supply and demand looks like with your basis and and get a feel for that. and make a determination from there it makes sense to sell or not and then hopefully will see some sort of price. but realistically, unless we see something happen in january with
"us farm report on the road at the executive women in agriculture conference is brought to you by monsanto, on behalf of america's farmers welcome back. naomi what else we need to happen in order to move this corn market higher? we need to see exports continue to stay strong. we also need to make sure that the corn-ethanol numbers continue to have the epa new mandates and blends that they're looking for. so that'll be good. and then we need a weather issue. that we're looking are ready to see corn acres about three to four
can happen, either in south america or here in the united states, corn has every reason to go back to test last summer's high near the four fifty level. but as angie was saying, were really just stuck trading sideways for maybe another month or so while we wait for some news. what scares me the most about exports julianne is a strong dollar. we just keep gaining strength. multi year -- is this the new normal when it comes to the dollar? are we going to be at these levels for quite some time? there's a risk of the dollar stayed elevated, fomc, the expectation in the middle of this month is for the fomc to increase interest rates, and the dollar has rallied in anticipation of that. maybe we'll see the fast reaction give some encouragement from foreign buyers come in and catch up on some of those corn purchases. but corn the biggest problem is wheat. there are competing supplies that are extremely large for corn and wheat and you need to use the opportunities when you get them to make those
ies. when we look at the transition into trump's new policy and we've seen the stock market to skyrocket on and so do you think that will continue for me and we may be overdone that side of things? to me i think we've all i mean at this point it's easy to think you're going to have one leader come in and make this sweeping change and see infrastructure spending increase and all these reasonsings behind why we've seen the stock market rally, but i really question what that does for the dollar. eventually because we're dollars in debt? where do we get that money? i jokingly told my husband over lunch maybe we introduce a soybean export tax. and he hit me. not in a bad way. those are things to be afraid when it comes down to it because we do not know what's going to happen with the new policies. we have the chinese issues. trump's already made it clear that the first one hundred days he wants to name china as a currency
ybean exports. are things you have to have in the back of your mind with the uncertainty going forward that that could really result in in some interesting developments in the market going forward. not to mention nafta pulling out of some of these trade deals, these trade deals that that that the dairy industry needs in order for for exports. but when we look at this very day the price lately, we've seen a nice run up here at the end of the year. can that continue in two twenty seventeen when we were still seen more milk production come online? i would say that this nice run up that we've had in milk has been more export demand related. our exports for all dairy is up three percent from a year ago. but the lead is from butter and whey. our actual cheese exports are down a little bit, but domestic cheese demand is solid. but you're right. the october production report was up two percent from the october prior. september production up two percent from the year prior. so
upper sixteens for a little while, but i don't think we have a reason to go to much higher than that. and don't be surprised we see the market and that trading between sixteen and seventeen as we finish out fourth quarter. the massive butter and cheese supplies, do you think that's kind of a wet blanket going into next year that we still have or does that situation change?what we've seen is domestic cheese's disappearance from past six weeks being strong, but yes overall with all of the supply of milk that's got to get turned ight we'll have a have the supplies and we just need that export market to continue. the cattle market? well this is interesting because it looks like we have a low in and there's some people there hoping that is the major low. because in years and six, we often get a cycle low. however cycle high came two years late, and beef production's going to be larger next year than it was this year. and a course like the corn market has wheat to deal with the cattle market has plentiful supplies of pork and poultry and they're going to
economy can get a light underneath it, we will see beef demand improve because the consumer confidence will improve. but you think short term we put a low in? i think we put in a low in that needs to be hedged soon. going into 2017, what do we need to happen higher ? we need the economy to engine to be strong because we need domestic demand to improve. export demands improved as we end this year and export demand should improve a little bit next year. the dollar is a wild card. but u s beef is gaining market share in some of those important markets. but domestic demand is key for me. and one thing that i think has happened is while boxed beef prices declined dramatically, dramatically retail prices have declined dramatically and we don't need to see bond prices decline the cash will decline very much more we need to see retail prices decline so that consumers feel confident making of beef purchases. that would make a big difference next year. and on the feeder side of things that i think we actually saw some green
thing is i get a lot of guys tell me they're talking about increasing soybean acres next year because of the revenue projections and having it make sense to add in extra acres they're going to do that make sure you're hedging your bets at that point. if the revenue numbers right now are telling taking care of them from contracting standpoint are the very least protect your downside risk don't go into springtime, plant extra beans and then figure out what to do later on. that does okay. naomi, make time for marketing this year more than ever you need to make time every day and when you're looking every day you need to be not only watching supply and demand here in the united states and around the world, you need to be watch the dollar you need to be watching what's happening in all the political mumbo jumbo that's going be going on this
to be coming up because any one of them any one of those things on any one day can make the whole marketplace go racing higher or lower and you have to be aware and get your scenario planning ready for any thing might happen. alright, thanks, naomi. and to quickly build on that it would be on since we saw a really tough year but we did have some working opportunities we could make a profit, we will have market opportunities again in two thousand seventeen to make a profit. be ready to make those opportunities and act fast. alright, thank you ladies. it was such a joy to have you guys phipps joins us next receive a free tiral of the daily market letter and gain knowledge abotu current market conditions from the professionals at bower trading. view the markets like never before. go to bower trading dot com
example, i have been diligently getting my books up to date. i'm almost through with february, so that puts me way ahead of schedule. but slaving away for minutes at a time at mundane bookkeeping can take a toll on even the most disciplined intellect, not to mention mine. so i have also been buckling down to other year- ending managerial decisions. none is there are many of you who keep several hats in play and trot each out for its unique purpose - a work hat, one for going to town, your funeral hat, and so on. i'm more of a one-hat guy, so at some point, i either have to change the oil or change the hat. i know all about those hat-cleaning tips, like putting it in the dishwasher, but if you think i'm going to let jan see
theory of household chores. that would be like her catching me sewing a button on. so it's time to rummage in the top shelf of the closet through my cache of free caps for my 2017 model. despite their one-size sorta fits all design, there is still a break- in period for new caps, which is one reason why parting with a greasy old one is painful. this faithful companion came from an equipment dealer in north dakota, so i was pretty sure it would stand out here in central illinois. and it has been a good one, saving my increasingly unprotected scalp from more than a few lacerations, as well as holding its share of bolts, o-rings and cheetos in the field. good times. but 2017 is going to be all about big changes, so fashionplates such as myself need to move with these
farm report. welcome back to this special edition of u-s farm report from teh executive women in ag conference in chicago illinois. we have much more ahead. it's been a cattle crunch for two years, but things are starting to look up. how long can better margins last? severe dryness in the southeast fueling massive wildfires this week. but did rains this week help? in customer support, we're switching gears and i am answering a viewer's question with a message from a mom. now for the headlines, as dry conditions in the southeast created a prime battle ground for raging wildfires, the devestating destruction leaving behind heartbreaking aftermath this week. just look at this footage of gatlinburg, tennesse. 70 mile per hour winds fueling wildfires so large, the smoke
flooding in states like alabama and tennessee, with more rain on the way. those rains not showing up on the drought monitor just yet. the latest drought monitor shows drought expanding in the southeast, with 36 pecent of the region seeing extreme conditions. drought still consuming nearly 88 percent of california. the rainy season is just getting underway in california. state water regulators are hopeful, as it announces water allocations for the coming year. .[take vo] the department of water resources says at this point in the season, it can fill 20-percent of requests from public water agencies that draw water from the state's spigot. the state water project is one of several sources of water for the public water agencies. the d-w-r says october storms helped push reservoirs higher, but the state could still end- up in a sixth year of drought. last year the initial allocation was just ten percent. but it's final allocation was 60- percent. just before the holiday weekend, a califorinia federal court ruled
iffs wanted epa to regulate treated seeds just like they do the pesticides themselves. the court disagreed saying that additional regulation would unnecessarily duplicate epa's existing science-based regulatory review. the executive women in agriculture conference kicking off with a discussion around policy. usda announcing this week an an additional 500 thousand acres can now be enrolled in grassland crp. usda calling it a working lands type concept for crp, designed to farm bill gave us a 2 million acre cap. and last year because we were so close to the overall 24 million acre cap, we were only able to enroll 100 thousand acres, but there was a lot of demand, over a million acres came in being offered to go itno teh grasslands program. so now this year we have a few acres coming out so we have some more flexibility. > taylor says usda is seeing more interest in c-r-p as farmers face tightening margins across the country.
today...ensuring a smooth transition to the new administration. cranberry growers are asking ag secretary tom vilsack for some help with their bumper crop this year. the congressional cranberry caucus, which is comprised of 17 members of congress, wrote a letter to the secretary asking him to make a large purchase of cranberries, just like he did for milk producers earlier this year. excess product is weighing on prices around the country. growers can manage oversupply by destroying or dumping the crop, but the caucus thinks the cranberries would be put to better use through delivering it to local food pantries. in 2013, usda made a large purchase of cranberries when growers faced another bumper crop. brought to you by vorvus pre emergence corn hebricide from bayer. the only herbicide to offer three levels of defense against weeds. burndown resideual and reactivation with rain. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman with a longer range look
stay? thanks tyne absolutely and in fact we're gonna see our first real blast of arctic air coming across a country. you're already starting to see in the far northwestern sections. you can see on the jet stream a watch what happens this whole thing digs into the west then the middle of the country by wednesday the cold air is already spreading into parts of the great lakes know how valley as we head through the day all the way down into the southeast and then as we head throughout the end of the week in in the next weekend the cold air is a especially new england but you'll notice it kind of flattens things out again so you stay mild in the southwestern it won't last long in the southeastern portions of the country as far as i called his concern but another shot probably coming later next weekend. so, my thirty dollars for chapters below normal for most of the lower forty eight haven't seen that in quite some time above normal north of the great lakes and from new england northward above normal precipitation for the great
the northwest.tyne thanks, mike. it's been a major financial crunch in cattle country the past two years. feedyard margins cut as deep as 500 dollars per head last year. while the situation has improved, some analysts say looking longer-term, we're not seeing greener pastures just yet. that's this week's farm journal report.
ers like foote tigthening their belts to survive another day. now that we're entering the final days of 2016, things are looking up. < we actually think that cattle feeders today that have a substancially improved profit opportunity in 2017 over what's transpiredin 2016> close says the number of feeder cattle imports from both canada and mexico declined this year, which is helping offset the increase in domestic production. the weekly sterling profit tracker has been mostly red this year, but the latest report for the week of november 25th showing green, with 52 dollar per head gains. that's quite the revesal from the 51 dollar per head losses feedyards saw last month, and the startling 486 dollar
that pushed feeder prices so far down in 2015. close says while average carcass weights are below year ago levels, it's still above the 5 year average. beyond supply, cattle producers know they need meat. we're starting to see some real intersest in buyers in middle meats going into the holiday uisage season. > that's why analysts like close and brugler think short-term, we've found a floor after being heavily oversold. while the bottom may be in for now, long-term, the picture is much more bleak.
that would be a huge benefit in getting this tonnage cleared in the market> while the outlook for 2017 is better, foote is taking in it in stride, hopeful the worst is behind him. and with three sons part of the family feedyard business, he has simple advice for young producers still trying to push through.
well, i'm not sure if john just wanted part of the week off for his birthday or what, but he punted this week's customer support to me, so i'm switching hats just for this week from host to commentator to share my opinion. we received this email of concern from a viewer and honestly, john thought it would be best if i answer, since i'm the one who decided to air it. jeanne of alton, iowa says "i'm writing this note due to a concern i have about some photos which were shared on sunday, november 20th's boradcast. there were some viewer photos that indicated an 8 year old was driving the tractor pulling a grain car alongside his father combining. i am a farm wife and nurse practioner and have a concern about any child youner than 12 driving that type of equipment. the reaction time and abstract thinking skills are not developed at that age. i don't apprecaite the assumed acceptance of this practice. please consider this in the future when sharing viewer photos. " i have your address, so we'll make sure a mug is on the way, jeanne. while i
ty on farms across this great country, i honestly didn't think twice about airing it. we aired a similar picture earlier this fall, and it was a family i personally know. i didn't think twice about airing the picture becase i viewed it as refreshing young kids are putting in such hard work. but the bottomline is, it's ultimately their parents' decisions on what they let their kids do on the farm. in two short years, i've quickly because someone is always going to view whatever you're doing as wrong. you know your decisions and how you raise your child will have life-long impacts, so you just pray the decisions you make will help mold your children into capable and driven individuals who will thrive in the world. you just do the best you can and hope that your children will be capable adults who add to society. that's why applaud all those moms out there encouraging their kdis to work at such a young age...now maybe driving a large piece of equipment is viewed as excessive
lessons that are becoming more and more rare. i constantly hear complaints both in and outside of ag about millenials and how it's a generation that doesn't want to work, has a hard time thinking on their own and are just plain lazy. while this is a huge generalization, some argue it's because of how the millenial generation, my generaion, is being riased. i applaud the fact that these kids want to work. while plenty of youth are sitting inside playing hours upon hours of video games ly are willing to work, but want to do so. so driving a combine or tractor at such a young age, is it right or wrong and by showing it am i promoting it? i don't have the answer. all i know is what work you let your kids do on the farm and how you parent is up to you. if you have questions or comments this week, you can send those to me via email at mailbag at u-s farm report dot com, or send a note on facebook and twitter. stay
cowboy poet, baxter black. timber and jesse agreed together from wild cattle or night graizin in a local farmers' cotton fields to complicate things the cows only came at night which eliminated using horses on their plan involved a tranquilizer gun our boys arrived loaded for bear jesse taped a flashlight to his dart gun and timbor carried a tie down a rope a flashlight and was wearing a miner's helmet complete with a headlamp well after two misses jesse fired it across red bull and hit him the bull began to wobble when he dropped to the groung timber was on him like a coon dog on a ham sandwich he rolled the ball sideways and hog tied him. well the bull began to struggle and pushed back and pushed back a
will soon take affect but the opposite seemed to be happening the bull was waking. timber was wacking him with his flashlight his miner's lamp bouncing crazily in the dark distance all jessie could see were two beams of light like obi won kenobi and slim skywalker going at with light sabres well the bull tumbled to his feet with timber still draped over his back again just from jesse's point of view they appeared to be inebriated friends who had lost their car keys in the middle of the night well timber fell off and hit the ground with a thud, the flashlight broke but he was still dragging along behind on that foot rope the bull finally stopped and then turned around he saw a wild predator beast with one bright shining cycloptic eye in the middle of his head and he did what any
he charged well jesse saw it all the one beam of light he danced and banged and flipped and flew in a firecracker ballet until it finally lay still shining askew a lone beacon in the night sky jesse ran to the light, over here, said timber, ten feet away. did you see where he went? south said jesse, towards mexico good said timber maybe i'll meet up with him again someday in a taco this is baxter black, from out there thanks, baxter. and if you'd like to see more of his commentary, just visit baxter black dot com. when we come back, machinery pete has this
classic farmall builit in 1940s this workhourse was built for farming and had an intersting feature. jim yur shares his story of this 1940 farmall bn this is a farm all bn and they started production on this in 1940 and its basically the same as a farmall b the accept the axles are shorter six inches shorter and they developed it because they needed a tractor in the vegetable areas of the country and so they can farm row crops were less than forty inches spacing and so that's why it was developed on this particular one is a nineteen forty seven it's got a single front wheel which is somewhat rare to find a but it made as you can see in the video it would turn around on itself which other tractors cant do
ship and had it for a few years and he had issues with his eyesight and he decided to sell its tractors because he couldn't see them and didn't want them. and so i put off for a while and finally we come to an agreement and i bought the tractor and i told him if he ever wanted the tractor back and sell back to him for the same price. i've taken it to canton texas which is about nine hundred fifty miles away from here and shown on down there taken to read power and the couple different last year we took it to missouri at red power up there how fast will it go? on probably in high gear about ten mile an hour i had to rework the front axle because it was built back when they used bushings instead of barings and had it take it to the front end a machine shop to have that redone in bushings put in that's the only thing that i've done to the tractor. thanks, greg. well, our thoughts
still dealing with the destruction from this week's wildfire. that includes the gatlinburg church of christ, destroyed by flames earlier this week. the good news is all their church members are safe. it's a fairly new congregation, getting its start in 1958. and in 1964, the first service was held in the church that burned down this week. again, we're thinking of all of you in gatlinburg this week. if you have a home church you would like to submit, salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us - from teh farm photos are next.
her he has a complete loss of this years cotton crop due to flooding. that storm came just as harvest was ramping-up. and cotton harvest is behind in texas, but look at the white blanket of cotton covering fields in the texas panhandle. barbara morgan snapped these pictures of 5 lock bolls. she tells us rain is setting back harvest a little, but cool spring weather meant the crop was delayed coming up. on top of that, many growers waited for a freeze, which arrived 2 weeks late this year, to harvest their mailbag-at-u-s-farm-report-dot- com or check us out on facebook and twitter. for all of us at u.s. farm report, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone. high strength steel for high strength durability.
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