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tv   U.S. Farm Report  ABC  December 11, 2016 3:30am-4:30am CST

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from the studios of farm journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report.> welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you over the next 60 minutes. soybean exports are strong, but how big of a bite is demand taking out of soybean stocks? we have the latest usda diplomacy in china teh aftermath of floods and heartbreaking weather in south carolina taking its toll on faremrs' crops
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that moved the markets this week...usda rolling out it's december supply demand report, giving us an updated look at soybean stocks. usda considered a yawner with the big story is cotton. usda upping it's production forecast to 16 point 5 million 480-pound bales. thats 2 percent above last month and up 28 percent from last year. and look at u.s. carryover. corn, soybeans and wheat unchanged from lat month. but usda bumping up cotton to 4.8 million bales. commodity prices facing mixed messages during week. soybeans seeing a bump early on exports numbers. so i mean espeically moving higher on news that china by 462,000 tons of soybeans from the united states over the week and that's big news becaues that has meant a lot of talk that the demand from china is stripping down to
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strong days early, beans pulling back later in the week...with january contracts hovering around the 10-20 to 10-30 range. commodity markets part of the ride this week across all financials. u.s. stocks and the dow jones industrial average and the s&p trading at fresh all time highs. the dow now on its way to 20-thousand. in the heart of drying season, natural gas prices have jumped more than 34 percent over the past month. they're now neaer their highest levels in two years. the momentum is on frigid ront, brent crude climbing above 55 dollars per barrel earlier in the week before pulling back to the 50 dollar range. the increase due to expected tightening supplies following opec's decision to cut production...however analysts now wonder if the proposed cut is enough to soften supplies longer term. in livestock, a new profit tracker showing positive gains for a second consecutive week. average feedyard margins
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eeders were losing nearly 500 dollars per head. however, the folks with sterling marketing say cow-calf guys need to start planning for a rough 2017. they're predicting loses of 24 dollars per head. december lean hog futures are up 16 dollars since october 19th. fighting their way back above 55 dollars per hundred...and now at their highest point since september. it is beyond me that's been gonmg on here there is no selling come here at any point i think they did not react more shored up here at upper end of the lovielier i think thtere may be some news that we have not heard of yet. that's g goign to come out that keeping these marktinsg grinding higher because a really has been no sell of has really came down to the bottom the latest meat export numbers showing october was a good month for pork and beef shipments. the u-s meat export federation says both saw double-digit increases from a year ago. in pork - exports are up 14-percent from last october. that's the largest monthly
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are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather... mike it's felt more like winter this week. well tyne across most of the country you are absolutely right except some of this far southern areas not show you that there's more coming in in the weather maps in the meantime some good news in the drought monitor this is what it looks like right now are still bad extreme to exceptional drought in many parts of alabama and georgia but let's go back a month and see it was about the happened over the at the past four weeks of his just expanding and expanding then just in the last week because of two good soaking rains it's begun to shrink so we've got it a start here to getting rid of that drought its getting a little dryer though i noticed in some of south central plains states as well all right as we head through this week on monday pretty good storm system snow in the great lakes parts of the
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colder than what we've seen so far coming into the northern rockies with the system riding along that and a little bit of snow that system is already into the great lakes by wednesday as the cold air just plunges south or not does start to stall out in the far southern tier states but this is extremely cold directs shot of arctic air and you can see multiple areas getting snow by friday then that the cold air settled in the most of the eastern two thirds of the country some are more like snow developing with that western system this could be producing some heavy snows and rains in the valleys in the western states as we head through the end of next week back in our next half hour with our longer range forecast thanks, mike. we'll get our analysts thoughts on the latest usda report this week. bob utterback and chip nellinger join me next. u.s. farm report rbought to you by farmer's edge. for the latest in
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com making sense of your data-- visit growyourreturns.com
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ome back. here now with chip nellinger and bob utterback. bob, this usda report came out friday.we didn't expect a lot of changes but boy was in a boring report. it was really the bulls were looking for something to grab on to to ignite the market. especially in corn word on cottons on consolidation range. there that thing was the report increased the world stocks in corn beans and we and so we're going to drift lower in some markets can quickly turn now the weather in we gotta move from cornyn and the farmers are not want to see what they like you know wolf former sun general former law clerk next on the only won the debate our stocks right now what is what the usda tell us about our domestic stocks on intel's near earnings unchanged two point four billion bushel corn carry out four hundred eight million bushel bean carry out so that the market's comfortable those numbers i agree bob i
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argentina the bulk of brazil looks to be really good shape so far but it's pretty early on his kinda like you know like a late may timeframe their mid to late may most those areas so they need to get some rain eventually but it's not affecting yields yet but you know that's kind of the hope of the market and it will build some weather premium i think starting next week if they don't get some rain and that extended forecasts so in this report if we didn't see much impact on on on party you because it was notthing bullish in the market psychology so much on market psychology but now the problem is is that south america is going to start havesting some beans right around the corner here first of january and that would allow them the plant double crop corn in the northern brazil two to three weeks earlier so they're gonna have a bigger corn second crop now one of the debates no trades on have is with a brazilian crop be
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once again the benefit of doubt that it'll be bullish but it's gonna be a limited bullish, we're not talking fifty cent moves were talking dime fifteen cent moves the play with basis of the cash prize the farmers on a c after storage costs is probably a wash and he's not gonna move on let's go right back up inventory in to next spring so if we don't have a summer weather scare a man were building to some not desirable price action later as we in the fall time period next year so we need either a weather issue here or whether issue in south america so what say we do or we don't get it what could be our price range here offer for soybeans offer soybeans i think it could be pretty wildly volatile actually on average of the last ten years from low to high during the marketing year of almost four dollars that's even including the last couple years with that range is narrow so i think if we get a weather
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january crop report are carry out bumps up this a little more on increasing yields and get the market thinking that went more bean a cursor this spring there's i think you know not a sense but dollars' worth of downside risk longer term and in beings so we had an opportunity a new crop of beans were the only thing author of its profitable right now so i think it really bears close watching swing in prices today did you do you think it's doing its job is it buying soybean acres yes i have from all my reports and getting across the country guys i don't see corn dealers talking farmers i think we're minimally up three million to four and a wild card is will we go to five how many we'd acres on a shift over to the means especially in kansas and missouri, iowa, north dakota south dakota minnesota ohio i've picked up everywhere their corn acreage there's bean acres of bright the questions nobody can wait this is how
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most bullish investments so we get four million we got two million acres of production that we don't need , now how's that going to impact price. four or five million more acres do you think that's possible chip i think it's possible also in the south cotton is going to be in the mix as well way more cotton acres is what i'm thinking with other people work with in the mid south area of five million might be a stretch but i i think it could be three plus and that means corn acreage going to be down a little bit. the thing is we're sitting here mid december so a lot can change between now and march april but you know some of those decisions are the already made and guys like bob said talking to seed corn dealers get their seal act and some decisions as far as acreage goes and i heard some reports in an oklahoma and some of those areas were some of these farmer saw five bale cotton this year just amazing so we could see the highest cotton acreage in some of those areas that we've seen
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think as i don't want to go too far and i think when you we talked kansas will when you get into missouri. oklahoma is where ht eporoblem is , now we got a wild card with oklahoma north carolina south carolina georgia that's dry now that dryness moves north as that's the wild card place corn acreage lost i think corn could be the sleeper believe it or not i think going to be the sleeper in june july that's where i would beat on feed guys and he buys oldcorn off combine if you want a tree on a ship you gotta be done by mid february donna way to june july to mrket in jan feb if you get that decent correction alright, it's pretty much know now that wheat acreas is down this year, but how much, we'll et their thoughts when we come
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welcome back. well just before the break i mentioned a wheat
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of a reduction do you think we're seeing this year? i think it could mean a couple million easily. the eastern corn belt that was way way down. you know like bob mentioned before the break--oklahoma, kansas that's harder to get a get a feel for. talked a couple of producers in kansas and at least in their area, central to western kansas they think locally that wheat acres could be down about ten percent on normal. a lot that's going to go to full season beans. if there is a lot of acres shifting, and that's going to lead to a lot of differing opinions, we'll get that obviously that planted acreage report not until the march. but there's a lot of acres at playing here. shifting. chip mentioned kansas wheat and we have been hearing about this wide basis in kansas. is that a signal of anything? i think it's the beginning of the end of the bear market for a wheat. hallelujah. if we can get wheat to bottom, get acres reduced, now the question is we don't
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they switch to beans, by all means, if you're going to shift your wheat acres to beans and you're encouraged by bean price, don't shift and not price it. if it's good enough to shift its good enough the price. and then defend against if you would defend against the summer weather. i think the corn has got the potential to exceed my, i'm going to selling corn between four ten and a four thirty base in the dec's but i'm going to defend against some type of june july whether scare. i have to. i'm hopeful of that. how is corn demand chip? we've heard with this cheap wheat we may be feeding more wheat but i know that's a little bit of a process of corn demand hasn't held up fairly well. it really has. our exports are cranking along. ethanol demand is really pushing high here. and now are bumping up against the wall there. but it seems like maybe they can even raise eventually ethanol demand, good profitability, crude oil back above fifty dollars. i think
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is good. and i think that's a bright spotlight bob mentioned a shame these acres back a little weather scare next summer. the demand base we have could be a nice spark longer term and in corn. can the ethanol side last? because we talk about the possible new e p a administrator of the oklahoma attorney general we know he has been really pro ethanol in the past so does that policy changes there does that scare you a little bit bob? i'm moving outside my area of expertise i'll freely give that liked the way he wants crude oil. they're going to be pushing that and at the push oil prices down, but the increase usage, so gallons each goes up, i've see that with the higher mandates me in a constructive figure for corn. is usage of that corn ethanol demand will increase. now the question is is if the economy starts to take off in interest rates take off, are we
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over into the equities and we're gonna have a deficiency of people really excited about being for monies initially it was their view welfare the jump back. and but i don't think people don't buy commodities as the inflationary hedge at this point. and so i thing it off said it's probably a positive but don't you can go too far with it. it even it's pretty much certain that that we see an increase in interest rates? already have this month a year i think it is whether it's fed because of the expectations of what a president trump is going to do. think we've already seen that. that probably continues you know the next twelve eighteen months. 30 seconds, twenty seventeen to your care for cattle producers? i think it's it's got a mixed thing back in and more terrain germany one forty on the high side a buck on the low side i think these big swings may be your coming the one hand but it's not easy
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season features clothes and feed yards? yeah it's it's been rough unfortunately i think in the in the western corn belt nebraska kansas and you're gonna see some of that very scene some some of the bigger ones and i think or
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markets now is spnosred by yamaha's full line of real world tough atv'ss and side by side vehicles time now for closing thoughts bob utterback, let's start with two thousand seventeen bearish beans, bullish corn as a spread trader. i think you january febrauary you get your call protection so you can sell the summer rally i would sell beans about ten thirty plus and and be conservative in my cash flow out ways for next year. next year prepare for adversity but if that we get a weather scare take advantage of
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some work this one and figure out really what your true costs are not just seed fertilizer nitrogen, cash rent, chemicals, all your costs: labor interest, machinery right down the line and that gives you power to then plan for the volatility we'll probably see. like bob said beans are the only thing with profits right now let's lock that in. whether that's puts, whether that's sales with calls attached, there's ways to kind thank you both for being here this week we appreciate it john
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ohn's phipps gifts is woodworking.. he makes some remarkable things. but it's not as easy as it looks, as he shows us in this
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and birthday gifts. this year, for example, i'm giving folks some kitchen utensils i turned from scrap wood on my small lathe. i hope they are not watching, or i've dampened the surprise. i probably should explain something to non-woodworkers out there. there are three distinct phases of woodworking. the first is the tool phase, wherein the purchase and deployment of new power or hand tools captures our entire attention. as some of you have pointed out, i've never really left that phase behind even as i moved on the second stage of this hobby: the wood stage. i've also shown you previously how i have accumulated enough rough lumber to fill a barn and shed
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perhaps most tragic stage is turning. once a woodworker gets his hands on a lathe, there is seldom any turning back. lathes are unique tools because with a lathe, the workpiece moves and the tool is held still, instead of all other operations where the tool is moved over or through the wood. it would be like farming where the tractor stayed stationary and the field moved under it. maybe it is this sharp drop in effort, or just being able to do something circular, which is always hard with wood, but turning can become a major time-absorbing exercise. most frequently we begin with pens. but soon we are moving on to larger projects and lusting for larger tools. science has yet to find a cure for stage three woodworking, and frankly most of us wouldn't embrace it anyway. so, to all my
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your christmas gift manufacturing. thanks, john. farmers in south carolina are still dealing with the aftermath after hurricane matthew tore through their state, devestating hteir crop two years in a row. so, how are farmers rebuilding?
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m journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report. welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead. hurricane destruction devestating south carolina. we have boots on the ground in our farm journal report. if you're in the mood for a holiday pie, andrew mccrea will fix your craving. and one viewer thinks john had an agenda with a recent customer support. now for the headlines...the trump transition team names two key players to the next adminstration that seem to garner support from agriculture. donald trump nominating oklahoma attorney general scott pruitt to be head of the environmental protection agency. pruitt has been a vocal critic of e-p-a during the obama years. he filed suit against the agency for its 'waters of the u-s rule'. environmentalist groups are objecting. but
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ys it's aware of pruitts stance...but remain hopeful. score says dialogue is key to make sure the right policies are implemented for rural america. the trump team also filling the role of u-s ambassador to china. current iowa governor terry branstad met with the president elect earlier in the week at trump tower. political observers say the decision is seen as a win in the ag world.
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will be a calming force especially if the president elect continues with some of that antagonistic rhetoric."> pfingsten believes branstad could bridge the gap between china and trump's tough talk on trade, and currency manipulation. fellow iowan and current usda chief tom vilsack says don't dismiss branstad from the world stage because he comes from a rural state. "he's tenacious, and he's going to . he's tireless, he's going to have to be and he understands and appreciates the importance of trade and he will have to."> branstad is the longest serving governor in u-s history and has known chinese president xi jinping for more than 30 years. farmers are feeling a little better about the future, at least according to one new survey. the latest purdue ag economy barometer reached an index point of 116
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of 92. a rating below 100 is negative, while a rating above 100 indicates positive sentiment. organizers say the improved rating can be attributed to an improvement in farmers' perspective about the future... motivated in part by better corn and soybean prices. however, organizers also note the jump in producer sentiment also reflected fewer respondents with a negative outlook, rather than a notable shift toward a positive outlook on the agricultural economy. soybean seed from bayer. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the long range forecast...mike is this pattern here to stay? thanks tyne absolutely this pattern is here to stay for at least the next week to ten days and perhaps longer watch what happens with the jet stream another direct shot of arctic air coming into the west then it
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ays north of the border by the way but it does send some colder air southward as by the middle of the week that cold air shift to the east and a lot another shot coming by friday into the western parts of the country and that of course will come east as well as we head through next week and then in early the following week this is a very cold pattern for the northern half of the country and folks in the south just get touches of that cold air so my thirty day outlook for temperatures have very it below normal for most of the lower forty eight only above normal for south florida in the far southwest precipitation over the next thirty days southern mississippi valley much of the east and the northwest expected to be above normal tyne thanks, mike. it's been a challenging year for growers in the southeast. farmers in marion county, south carolina, have seen extreme heat, tropical storms and a hurricane in one
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mers remain thankful they got any crop at all following multiple years of tough times. a walk and set of words bankers and growers know all too well in northeast south carolina. "in our area, you're going to see a lot of cotton and peanut farmers who will have a loss on their crop ing expenses. but that's about as far as it will go.49"> northeast south carolina experienced extreme heat this summer. then hurricane matthew hit in october... just in time for harvest. while cotton harvest is now almost complete in the state, some fields in marion county are unharvested and full of hardlock cotton...
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get about half of what we expect. we normally figure on a 900 pound dryland crop and we probably won't even get that,"> he says soybeans, corn and tobacco weren't impacted as much in his area. however, cotton and peanuts took a hit. .baxley is expecting yields to be half of his normal virgina peanut crop. buying stations are seeing it too. small yields across all types of peanuts. 2015 brought a frost, freeze, drought and flood.
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drought, it was wiped out by the flood,"> some pockets received roughly 20 inches of rain. other area got roughly 40. those rains didn't shut off until well into december of 2015. growers say this year the rains stopped after the hurricane- creating a better year with less unharvested acres. but the two years combined are putting a strain on growers. that's why farmers say next year needs to be a profitable one.
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plan of action will be sell assets in an effort to continue farming or payout and go forward,"> regardless of the challenges, farmers here are pressing forward.... stepping ever closer to a new season and a fresh start. reporting in marion county, south carolina, i'm betsy jibben. thanks betsy. atkinson the peanut buying station is experiencing roughly eanut volume this year from expected yield. it was roughly 20 percent loss of volume last year. up next, john phipps u.s. farm report is brough to you by kibota's m7 series. learn more about the larvest tractor in kubota
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john's commentary about leds struck a chord with one viewer. he has more in customer support. robert alexander from elbert county, colorado was upset by my excitement over led's - light-emitting-diodes: "my favorite liberal elitist strikes again! what would we do without you pointing out our deplorable ignorance and stupidly? your condescending lecture informing us of the benefits of led brought your arrogance to a whole new level. fyi, people in agriculture are, for the most part, educated, hard working, ethical, logical and tend to lean away from idealism. just because we might disagree with your predictable rhetoric, don't think we're stupid. in fact, i believe that most of us who, unlike you, don't simply regurgitate the liberal
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thought." thanks for your feedback, robert and if you want a mug, send me an address. it's been nearly fifty years since i graduated, but this is the first time my degree in chemical engineering from rose-hulman institute in terre haute, indiana has been described as liberal and elitist. but that term has become kind of a codeword, more than a literal description. i do understand how my enthusiasm over new technologies can get on people's nerves - my friends frequently roll their eyes as i blither on about new inventions or discoveries. my point was that new technologies like led's, regardless of how much they advance our lives, usually go through a controversial adoption phase, but perhaps that was old news to most of you. by odd coincidence, your email arrived
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engineer son and engineer daughter-in-law got me. ta-daa! a remote-controlled led light bulb. not only can you turn it on and off, and dim it from with the remote - you can change the colors. how cool is that? technology. amazin. if you have questions or comments, just email those to us or post it on quite the response from viewers. i'll read some of those next week. next up, tis the season for pie. next, andrew mccrea
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as the old adage goes - 'when life gives you lemons, make lemonade.' mary hostetter took the message to heart...but with apples. andrew mccrea is touring the american countryside and has the story. ( 1983 was a difficult year for mary hostetter. she went through a sudden divorce and found herself needing to provide for her two very young daughters. she hoped to find a way to work from home. (i thought if i could just stay at home and bake cookies and bake pies and things like that for people i maybe i could make enough money to stay in our house on screen: "mary hostetter, ownder blue owl restaurant and bakery, kimmswick, missouri" she began to go to craft shows and sell her cookies, pastries and pies. people could buy items on the spot but also place orders for future events and the holidays. (by the cristmas of 1984 i had orders for over 30,00 christmas cookies that had to made in my home :08) 3:38 #8933 after the christmas of 1984 she found a location in kimmswick, mo, along
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amazing pies. we need to put in one of the "action" shots of her showing us the pecan pie here and telling us what's in it and how many pounds of pecans. the showcase of pies was bringing in quite a crowd. but then in the summer of 1993, rains turned into a deluge here, and throughout the midwest. the blue on along the river was suddenly in the path of a 500-year flood. show the raindrops and puddle we shot ? do we also have a river shot? (we had time to build a levee. the levee was built to withstand a 50 foot crest. it took weeks to build that levee and make it strong enough the water rose to 49.9 feet. the 50 foot levee held and the town and blue owl was saved. she wanted to do something to say thanks to those who had volunteered to save the town's homes and businesses. (we
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d the town of kimmswick, maybe that would be something really positive for people to enjoy 34 the levee high applie pie as it became known really stood out in the display case and cuased some confusioin as well people thought they were pumping air into the crusts, or perhaps just stacking whole apples inside. it was actually a marvel of dessert architecture. (the apples for the big pie, 18 apples, were hand peeled and sliced at that time. they were each hand placed hat's right, 18 full apples sliced and hand placed into one tall quite impressive and then a carmel topping was added to the outside to resemble the rocks and sanbbags that topped the levee. this pie is so famous, people come here first to photograph it then to eat it and study and try a multitude of other choices. between thanksgiving and christmas people come here to enjoy a dessert and then buy pies to send to others. be sure to use the footage of someone taking a phot with their phone (we ship so many apple pies all over the united states and we
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ts that we've gotten and they've seen us on a lot of different shows and they come from all over the world which amazed me they say that every levee high apple pie has 18 apples.that means that this piece has over 2 apples. so instead of desert this is probable just a good healthy meal. traveling the countryside in kimmswick missouri im andrew mccrea. that made me hungry. you can hear more of andrew's stories by downloading the farm journal tv app. when we journal tv is the go-to app for american agriculture. the best news, market analysis and stories from rural america is now in your hands. watch it on your phone, tablet or desktop.
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s brought to you by machinery pete, the most trusted name in farm equipment. welcome back to tractor tales folks! this week we've got a 4010 wheatland that does just about
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of the fields in north dakota to help out this farmer in south central michigan. he says once they got this on his farm, it went right to work. today, it needs a little tlc, but still gets the job done. they came from north dakota and neighbor bought it and then he didn't need it so he sold it to me and my dad retired that old b retired that real good because we'd rather drive this forty ten than that d a lot more power and it was the first six cyclinder that we ever owned on this farm we were using it to haul manuar pick corn plant corn plow fit the fields and it was doing about everything it was kind of my tractor then i got older i had the takeover plan and dad had to go to fittin fields because of the handle all the
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you come get me and i know i come get you and you stop in help me fill up and i said no i'll you this i i've i run the corn planter you fit the fields earn at the time i thought it was a crime would that would always tell me go to the headlands and go around outside the field a few times then i come out and do it i thought that was bad but once once dad was gone i'd give anything for him to do that again got a real get the engine redone that's the main thing so start better than we always called them but they're more comfortable to sit on than the other ones the only draw back with the wheat land was is that they have no three point hitch is just go just got a draw barand pto and thats it that that hurt us a little bit when we wanted to cultivate corn then we had to use the other tractor but after awhile you get over that thanks, greg. today's country church salute goes to saint mary's church in
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been a staple in the community for 170 years. if you're ever in fredricksburg, stop by for a tour, as its been on the national register of historic places since 1983. as always we want to learn about your home church as well... salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us - from the farm is next. enter for your chance to win two registrations to the top producer seminar-- january 24th through the 27th in plus a two
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some of our viewers saw snow, even a blizzard this week. take a look at this photo from kidder county, north dakota. it may be difficult to see but that's the head of a simmental cross sticking out of the snow. farmer david
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eight foot drifts to rescue the animal. that part of the state has recived two feet of snow over the past two weeks. they tell us this cow is 10 years old and thankfully, the cow is fine after he dug it out with a payloader. check out this picture heath captured in chesapeake virginia. it's an f18 fighter jet and a cae combine, harvest soybeans last month. jacob says welcome to michigan. he was doing field work this week, and apparently mother nature is getting him in the mood for christmas. as always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag-at-u-s-farm-report-dot- com or check us out on facebook and twitter. for all of us at u.s. farm report, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone. high strength steel for high strengh dependability. the chevy silverado is the official news-gathering vehicle
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