tv Defense News With Vago Muradian ABC December 6, 2015 11:00am-11:31am EST
tokyo to renew its pososture, ad welcome vietnam forces back to its basis. as these nations draw closer, joining us to discuss the strategy are some of ourur top asia experts. the strategic and international studies c cente and the center for a new american security, a retired naval aviator manolo global strategies and transformation and michael pillsbury, a chinese specialists at the hudson's to and the author of the washington post bestseller the 100 year verizon marathon. that will be out in paperback in march. welcome to the program. i nt to start with you. ina's strategy has been very sophisticated. many pieces.
what is china's ultimate aim? whatat is the rush? its actions have galvanized to the region. what is the ultimate aim, what is the rush, and is trying to tear with the international community thinks about what it is doing? home.na's goal begins at it is rejuvenating the chinese nation. this is the chinese presidents investigated chinese -- enunciated chinese dream. he wants to restore china to greatness. not only making china the biggest economy in the world and having a robust military , but asserting chinese claim in maritime capabilities. it means dividing the u.s. and its allies. reducing american influence inch asia and around ina's periphery is a critically important part of that strategy. vago: that is part of the hundred year marathon that he
wrote about. >> if you look at china's own words and their own writings like the papers that cannot this year in may, their goal seems to have changed if you look 10 years ago or even 20 years ago. it was much more modest. but this year the really talked about protecting china's around the world. they havtalked abo the need for a global presence. 35re is a far outlook by chinese generals that came out chinese having a glob network of military bases. some of this is new. some of this is very lg-term, 20 y years or 30 years to go. >> watch of the things i want to ask you is do you think that beijing cares at all about what the international community thinks? costshave tried to impose on their behavior the south china sea by creating solitary --hin south asian countries
solidarity within south asian countries. i think china has had to look for softer diplomacy in a more outreach to the region. but they have not stopped being assertive or looking for opportunistic gains in east asia. >> i thinkt is important to remember that the fundamental point, as far as i am concerned, is that china has militarized. this will cause real problems. we have seen this before, since 1800. five or six times, emerging cataclysm.r, global china cannot help itself. alwaysrominent analysts like to forecast that the end of the communist party is .ear how stable is the government? and what are the next ringngs tt we have to be ready that china will do to unsteady the system?
there is no consensus about the long-term future for the communist party. there is a division of the isms. in the short term there is no doubt that there is a focus on major reforms to from the military command, where he is id ofed to get r regional commands. the military on his side is something he n needs. to be assertive internationally, he is going to probably give in to some nationalistic fervor in issues of sovereignty,. but at the same time he needs econonomic reform. he needs to make sure ththat the economic economy will continue to grow so that the communist party still has the congres in 2017. in aaffirms him, but some strong positioion for the last half of his tenure. vavago: what yoyou think will be next surprise? island bases were something that surprised the international
community. the massiveness and the scale of conruction was a surprise. ashton carter saying it was a great risk associatated with us. what you think is the next surprise they will unveil? >> they have sought to o surprie the international community, that is part of their strategy. using ping said -- xi jinping sandusky begin neighbors off-balance as part of the strate of advancining chinese interests. we saw the establishment of the east china sea air defenense identification zone. we could see similar steps taken in the south china sea. they have not established baselines in this part. i have done so in the northern china secret we could see and hear defense identification zone asserted in the other areas as well. we have seen me establishment of a first chinese base
instability. -- in djibouti. vago: i want to go to you about advancing their interest in the region. artificial our lives are military bes, ultimately. risisk ofised the international conflict, obviously. how w serious a threat are these military bases and how serious is the risk of a conflict? >> i think that the bases themselves are quite serious. they expand the military footprint with a militarized the political claim and legal claim and make it much more difficult to deal with them. the chinese may nd our response is overbearing. we have to respond this way in
quantico now, the immortalized airfield t. toy were more quiet about some degree. respondedrse has quite dramatically an change national secucurity as a result. vago: the chinese have been investinin a lot of anti-axis areas, and he island bases are a push chines, to power as far out to keep america and d its i lies out of the island chain. what are some chinese fears that the united date of its allies can utilize to put pssure on china to maybe change its victory little bit a stay within the international order than outside of it? being of china's fears is
boxed in by the fortification of the chain of islands that runs from japan even as far as innesia. these recent stories out of japan, including this month that they are going to fortify three of theslands between japan and taiwan, this is touching on one of china's major fears. they also have a concern, they express a lot about their border with iia. the indianans continue to incree ththe number of nuclear weapons and deployments forward toward china. this is a n neurotic area for te chinese. i think there are 16 of these have written y lot about favorite whether we m is a push on the question of whether we are counterproductive. we increased level of chinesee military effort rather than shaping it. there is a level of effort that is not quite clear but if it is bit less than ours.
they are between 1.5% and 2%. we are at 5%. if we crowd them too much and have a really robust reaction that china is a threat to introduce serious thgs, we take the chance that title -- china will double their military .udget anti-satellite weapons could be much to run than they are today. vago: we will we're family. we'd do anything for each other. but this time... those bonds were definitely tested. frog leg, for my baby brother don't frogs have like, two legs? so they should have two of these? since i'm active duty and she's family, i was able to set my sister up with a sweet membership from navy federal. if you hold it closer, it looks bigger. eat your food my big sis likes to make tiny food. and i'm okay with that. open to the armed forces, the dod and their families. navy federal credit union.
china is getting bottled up inside the island chain. and the forging of a coalition around the world that countries will begin to bind together to push back against china, the challenge there is the this is something that the united states does not control. even the countries in southeast asia are very unwilling to unite shd work together to pu back against the pressure that they field. ell. vago: and this is all based on trade. >> very few want to challelenge china economically but they'll want to rely on united dates for security. -- united states f security. >> i do not think that the chinese are very fearful they are proceeding without being deterred.
--ould like to note it mention that talking about m ike's comments, tt is where our military strategy is. integrate wh japan and defended place. we'll turn it to that, if we cannot pull it off your we decided just to costly, is t pull back to an offshore defense strategy. but right now our strategy but right against their fears. vago: let me go to the p pavemet and get your view on this. patrick, the obama administration has been executing a pivot part of it is diplomatic, part of it is economics. th imf picking the currency as a reserve currency. administration is always saying we are not containing, we are not boxing chinana in, we're just trying to ensure regional
stability and pull the country into the i international order. what is the verdict on the pivot? what is good about it, what is not good about it and what has to change to be better? at theway to look rebalance policy,s it having a desired strategic effect. we do not know yet.. theris evidence to show that china is not much deterred from surge in these areas. we have to do more to dissuade china for being overly assertive and changing the status quo. another way to look at the rebalance is to look at our we reassuring friends and allies? i just came from vietnam, and the first question they ask is where is the pivot? maritimeok at u.s. capacity, one of thehe lines of
effort of this administration, there is a renewed push for putting money behind ts idea. they have spspent clclose to $20 million. only a little bit is going to indonesia or asia. our words have tstrped our actions when it comes to balance. vago: do you agree with that, that it is more lip service than on the ground change? >> i would not agree with that. the rebalance should be thought of as being in its first stage. if i'm right, will be a 30 year rebalance. we are just saying the first for five years. we have se several significant steps. the first is increasing military exercises with our partners brady second is the speeches. there is a lot oweight behind them. the u.s. pentagon needs to refocus science and technology on the indo pacific area. that is a big new instruction to
our science and technology community. the third area is strengthening our allies in many ways. step,ee it as a first somewhat scary, but it depends on what happens in the next five years. i think they are right. >> on the one hand i agree with mike. i think the defense department is doing a lot tangibly to build up its capabilities. but on the other hand i think there is an interesting way to calculate level of effort that might be required. a friend of mine from japan is a retired vice on role. admiral. commandingished operations in the east china secret he lost 30 pounds in the two years he was workrking, that is how difficult the work was. i dodo not think we have
roundtable. bonnie of the center for strategic and international 90's, patrick of the center for new american security, paul with global technology,y, and michael pillsbury, the author the washington post btseller the 100 year caree marathon. bonniei want to start with you. to contest the territorial claims, the obama administration has been doing some overflights of some of those artificial islands. they did a drive-by, the destroyeyer with past. there has in some criticism of the e on messaging or the substance of that. was it useful? bonnie: the united states started bating this in late 2013 when the chinese started building the artificial islands. it has beeeen a lot of intense discussion in the administration between how we respond.
interview long time, and finally the u.s. sendsds destroyer withn 12 nautical miles of one of these fereefs. they did this in a very public way because there were so many challenges to freedom of navigation on a very quiet part. thisis is a problem and they hae 70's.ince 199 taking so long to start addressing these challenges is the negative side of the strategy, but fortunately we now do have a strategy in place. i think we will be seeing challenges to many of the artificial islands. the challenge in legal terms, each one is different. it is located within 12 nautical mileles of another feature.. the united states rightly is staying on the side of international law. this is where we have an
advantage as the chise are consistent with international law. are one of the people who didisagreed with the idea of doing thiss an innocent paage but more broadly tell usus how this was received in japan. what the totality of japanese changes mean. chinese have labeled him as a threat to security. think the administration made a fundamental mistake byy choosing to conduct a freedom of navigation administration. ofs required an assertion power, which is a completely different thing. that is not what happened. there are all sorts of different ways to do it, it isot miss her to speculate on how that can be done. this is not an asstion of power. that is what is going on in the sea.hina
china's assertiveness power, not standing on law. vago: what do these changes mean for japan? >> it underscores the challenge that japan is already feeling .he realressure i have told yoyou how hardhey are working to keep the lid on that and shooting back. but when you are in tokyo, my experience, patrick k and i i we together, he will have a different view, is that we did this up because w were embarrassed about it, frankly. >> we are having communications problem. up japan with the south tnessee conference. including our mix never stanng sof me of what the u.s. is up to. vago: let me go to the great accompanied the
army elements, regional interests to build that they the regional australian government basically outsources to the a the company that owns the people's liberation army. can the united states be mor interested in the security of our allies than n they are? to the lasth question. but to your first question, the signature element of this is eliminating the marines near australia. australia marines, in with our allies. it is a great initiative too train and shshow results and readiness. a chinese privately owned takes a 99 ar lease out on the commercial port of darwin. this announcement came one day after the high level b
bilateral l negotiations between the u.s. and australia. it was never communicated, this is the problblem that allies ha. they want economic growth and ties with china and the s security insurance and ties with the united states. dual is a gray zonone use. china is doubling down on this. building a base in djibouti is not >>o hay. hard. we have only about 45 seconds left. some of our strategic understandings have been so wrong and how can get better at this. of theoriesa lot about why intelligence failure happens. two of the main points are
american analysts have a hard time understanding that they do not like us. the rise of anti-americanism we arare particularly blind to. why should they not like u us? in china, the rise of the hawk over the past 10 years was a rise of anti-americanism. very wa suspicion of what american is doing -- america is doing. we are blind to that. there is a second study collecting raw i information. vago thank you for joining us. we appreciate it. using up, jeanette tells whether a line of credit or a credit card is better for a business. running ag and successful small business takes a lot of effort and commitment. not so different from serving in the military. having quick access to cash is a crucial moment in securing the success of your businesss. if you entered civilian life, a
business credit card for a business line of credit are two viable options. line is attractive but you must have collateral to back it up. a credit card is faster and easier to obtain. make payments on the portion you use. but a credit line is better for seasonal highs and lows. deciding what is best for your business comes down to the type of business you're running. if you have an extensive payroll or operate seasonally a line of credit would be best. if you operate independently and need funds from time to time, a business credit card is just as good. vago: thank you so much. good. vago: thank you so much. we w i knew it could rough in there, but how rough? there was no way to know for sure.
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vago: air force secretary debra james last week said that her service needs at least 100 new style dollars to support future needs. when the bomber program was launched, a sign that the new fleet was kept at 100 planes was due to operational demands. the dod showed that if they cut costthey c could get more plans but we have this under 160 bombers, of which only 20 or stealth jets, able to penetrate heavily defended targets. force is so small they are
constantly overstresess request announceces show they need at least 174 bombers to field 120 ready erikombat kratz. aircraft. one b-1er syria, bomber canemain aloft or hours. sff tellschief of us that the demand for air power is only increasing. it is important to gethe best value. but it is equally critical of thair force has a long range bobomber to give the massive puh to the most avily demanded -- defendant enemies. thank you for watching. if you have any comments about this show or suggestions f future coverage please-mail me.
we will be back next week at the same time. until then, have a great and a very happy [music] >> dr. charles stanley: our peace is based on a relationship, a relationship to one person and that's jesus christ. and when he said, my peace i give unto you; and in me you have peace, that's what he's talking about. it's a relationship with him. >> mal mannouncer: today on n