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tv   Full Measure With Sharyl Attkisson  CW  October 9, 2016 11:00am-11:31am EDT

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sharyl: a little more than three weeks from election day, americans are glued to the polls. maybe they shouldn't be. >> a cnn poll showed people trust trump more on confronting terrorism, but they trust clinton more on foreign policy. sharyl: when you read it reported in the media that poll says x is ahead by x points, what's the first thing you think of? john johnson: i question it. [laughter] lisa: don faul's leadership was forged on the battlefields of america's post-9/11 wars and returned home to find that the gratitude of a nation didn't translate to a job offer. i would think people would be knocking down your door. don: i found really universally that there was this deep respect for what i had done, they just didn't think that the skills translated. >> how are you doing over here? sharyl: another busy night along the waterfront in boothbay harbor, maine. tourists and locals flock here for some of maine's famous seafood. most don't know it, but there's
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quietly enjoys some special political pull. >> and she said, "well, who are you married to?" and i said, "the governor." she says, "what governor?" i said, "the governor of maine." [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] ? sharyl: welcome to "full measure." i'm sharyl attkisson. prepare yourself. these last weeks of the campaign will feature a rush of polls, each attempting to handicap the horse race and predict the presidency. more than ever before, companies, campaigns, and news outlets are seeking your opinion. there are landline polls, cellphone polls, internet polls, and push polls. in this recent average by real clear politics combines several polls, indicating hillary clinton is taking a slight lead
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the margin of error puts them pretty close. but as much as americans love to hear the latest predictions, we inherently question them. today, we ask how honest and accurate the numbers are as we dig into the weird science of polling. >> you say it's not a shakeup , but you guys are down and it makes sense. >> says who? >> polls. >> says who? >> most of them. all of them? sharyl: sparring over election polls is an american pastime. >> says who? >> polls. i just told you. i answered your question. >> ok. sharyl: are we being fooled by polls? john johnson: there are people that are trying to purposefully mislead us, then there are times where people just don't know better when they read part of the story. sharyl: john johnson has a phd in data from mit. you could say he's an authority on the weird science of polling. and he says there's good reason to be skeptical. sharyl: so someone like you, when you read it reported in the media that a poll says x is ahead by x points. what's the
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john: i question it. [laughter] john: i look to see what the sample size was, how many people? i look to see who they questioned and i look to see if we -- actually if there's a track record for that poll. those are the three things i think about first. sharyl: tell us about the polls that intentionally mislead. how do they do that and what is their aim? john: the broad category of polls are called push polls and so what a push poll is literally where you're masquerading as a pollster from an independent organization, but you actually represent a party or political interest and you're going to shape questions that are meant to influence the results. ? john there was allegations of : push polling in nevada, where, right before the primary, calls to bernie sanders supporters sort of framed in terms of, "well, do you realize that bernie sanders doesn't actually support obamacare," or this -- or these kind of hot button issues, and then asking "so now, would you still support hillary
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>> hillary clinton says bernie sanders is making big campaign promises that will cost up to $20 trillion and as the "washington post" says, "realistically, his plans are dead on arrival in congress." john: now, both parties are equally guilty and there's allegations of this, but that's what a push poll is. so that's just unethical. sharyl: sanders accused clinton of being behind the nevada phone campaign, but her defenders denied it met the true definition of a "push poll." another nonscientific poll that's popular is the online instant poll that lets anyone donald trump cited his "victories" in a number of those polls following his first debate with hillary clinton. when we see what we think are the reputable national polls, you say there are issues with those too? john: yeah, there definitely can be. so first, i always think about are they asking questions in a way that might be misleading or might be shaping the debate? sharyl: what are some examples? john: and so for example, if you have a very long and complicated set-up question, you know,
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for vladimir putin" dot, dot, dot. and then you ask a question about foreign policy and trump, you're kinda guiding it. or, "hillary clinton's email scandal continues to probe her or to haunt her. how do you think about that?" either of those type of things could guide the answer. >> the latest nbc news/survey monkey online poll shows hillary clinton improving her lead on donald trump nationwide. she now leads 50%-45%. >> she's up 5 points. sharyl: i looked at a poll recently that had hillary clinton up by a couple of points, but when i looked at the sample, they interviewed 50% more democrats, so suddenly, it didn't look all that positive for her to have interviewed 50% more democrats and she really wasn't winning by very much. john: at the end of the day, every poll you see has some underlying model of turnout, and when you described, well, clinton's up by six, but there's a lot more democrats in that poll, or you might see a different poll where trump's up by one, but there's a lot more republicans in that poll or they're weighted more, that's
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sharyl: for people who think that maybe a pollster gathers a hundred opinions and randomly publishes the results, there's a lot more to it. john: it is not the case that we simply go and pick a hundred people at random and they all answer the question and we tell you, "oh, out of the 100, 50 voted this way, 45 voted this way, 5 voted this way, 5 are undecided." sharyl: historically, is there a poll or an average that's been right more often than the others? john: well, 538 has sort of credit for sort of being the one that's called most of the states correctly. >> a cnn poll showed that people trust trump more on terrorism, but that they trust clinton more on foreign policy. john: but 538 does something completely different. again, they're an aggregator, they're not a pollster. so, they take all the polls and, based on those statistical precision, makes some predictions. >> people whose top issue is terrorism tend to prefer trump. john: reality is you and i could sit here and go through the 50 states, and we probably together, not knowing a lot, could tell you how 40 of the 50 are gonna work out, right? at the end of the day, the election is going to hinge at
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so, then it's, are there certain polls within those states that are particularly useful? monmouth has a very good reputation, for example, that's one. now there's this advent of a lot more internet polling -- reuters ipsos, yougov, "the economist" are doing some more daily internet polls. so there's different choices at least, and i always say, let's look at it as totality, but at the end of the day, i'm telling you it's a handful of states where it's gonna matter -- ohio, pennsylvania, florida. those are the first polls i look at. >> the leave vote leading the remain vote in the u.k. we are getting a brexit and financial markets around the globe are in panic mode. sharyl: do any polling disasters stick out in your mind in recent times? john: brexit is a great example because that was really driven in part by difference between internet results and phone results and averaging polls together. >> the total number of votes cast in favor of leave was 82,000.
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line? john: they weren't representative enough of what the voters were thinking and also, they were too confident that people wouldn't change their mind because a lot of people made a decision at the last minute. nigel farage: dawn is breaking on an independent united kingdom. >> the u.k. has voted to leave the european union. john: the great example, and this is not recent, is always truman, but that was sort of a situation where they stopped polling three weeks before the and that showed truman did sort of a bunch of whistle stop tours and really built up support. sharyl: are there any best polls and worst polls or organizations that have proven their accuracy or lack thereof over time? john: abc news/"washington post" has done well historically, although this year there has been sort of a democratic lean to those. usually, the ones that do poorly don't survive. there are, as i said, some notable examples of pollsters that have been a little bit dishonest and usually get out of the way. there was one story i had read about 30% of republican voters are in favor of bombing agrabah.
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from "aladdin." >> public policy polling found 30% of 532 people who identified as republican would bomb agrabah and only 13% say nope, let's not bomb the cartoon city. sharyl: a comment on the "l.a. times" polling unique way where they're conducting the -- by interviewing the same people. what are they doing that's different and what does that tell you? john: they literally take a same set of people, it's called a panel, the exact same people and they interview them every day to try to measure the trends. who's changing, who's changing their mind or not? the issue has been in part when they started, their poll sample, that integral group skewed a little bit more towards trump. so, frequently, well once you've said that you're gonna interview the same people, that's going to be inherent in every single poll. the day that that poll came out that clinton was ahead, i said, "wow, that's a really interesting data point," because there's a group that has been predetermined sort of seems to be skewing republican, now it's sort of shifted back with the tightening of the race again and now trump tends to be up.
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the national polls are relatively meaningless without that extra data? john: it's an inherently complicated thing we're trying to do. the ultimate poll is the election. so, i've got a hundred people i'm gonna survey, i've got a thousand people, it's actually remarkable that statistics can even get it close. but as a result, that's a pretty hard problem to solve. you've gotta treat it as what it is, it's a pretty nuanced problem. think hard about the polls. sharyl: gallup, one of the nation's most respected polling organization for decades, isn't polling the presidential race this year. its final 2012 poll had mitt romney beating barrack obama by one point and gallup promised to fix what went wrong. instead, gallup decided to drop presidential polling for the first time since its founding in 1935. still ahead on "full measure" -- it's a tough transition from the battlefield to the workplace. lisa fletcher takes a look at some business sectors that are
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sharyl: the u.s. military spends up to $70,000 to put each soldier through basic training. for special operations, our military elite, their training runs into hundreds of thousands of dollars. when that soldier or seal leaves duty, it's a walkaway investment, lost money for uncle sam. but some sectors, like wall street and silicon valley, are finding that combat skills, honed on the battlefield, may be a perfect fit for their hard knocks world. lisa fletcher found a west coast company that's helping bring
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don faul: we learn leadership under some of the most trying conditions. there's just not that many places in the world where as a 21 or 22-year-old you have the opportunity to lead a big team under incredibly stressful and trying circumstances. lisa: don faul's leadership was forged on the battlefields of america's post-9/11 wars. a marine infantry officer, he was part of the first troops in afghanistan in early 2002. faul then served two tours in iraq as a platoon commander, but returned home to find that the gratitude of a nation didn't translate to a job offer. i would think people would be knocking down your door? don: i found really universally that there was this deep respect for what i had done, but i think for the average hiring manager or recruiter, they just didn't think that the skills translated. kymberly penson: the transition can be daunting in that, as you leave the military, you don't have those robust networks in place. lisa: a former army intelligence officer, kymberly penson had also deployed to iraq, where she
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like faul, penson excelled at war, but entered the job market a soldier in a strange new world. bethany coates: the veterans and military community is only about 1% of our population now. it's really uncommon actually for recruiters and hiring managers to have a good understanding of what veterans are bringing to the table. lisa: bethany coates is a former assistant dean at stanford university's business school. she founded breakline in 2015 to tech table. bethany: intellect, leadership, problem solving ability, grit, collaboration. those are strengths that veterans bring in spades. there's so much talent there and there's so much need in industry. i wanted to help it, build a bridge. lisa: through one-month-long "embed" programs, breakline helps veterans translate their skill sets to employers and introduces silicon valley's top
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we were with don faul. we were with kymberly penson. and they are such incredibly talented and confident individuals, but both of them told us they were nervous. they didn't necessarily believe in themselves at the beginning, which, looking at them now, is a little hard to imagine. is that fairly common? bethany: that is really common and i think it's actually to be expected. but i think that the silver lining there is that they can move past this moment of vulnerability and sort of return to that place of competence and performance that has served them so well in the military. don: all of the hardware innovation and design for the apparel happens here. lisa: and don faul is a perfect example. after grad school and a lucky break by a navy man who got him a summer internship at google 11 years ago, today, faul is the chief operating officer of
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company. >> we are measuring three muscles within the lower body. lisa: making clothes that help people maximize their workouts. one of faul's early hires was gabriel rangel, a fellow marine who also struggled with his job search. gabriel: you are kind of intimidated because i came from the enlisted side of the world, where i had no college background, i had nothing coming out. lisa: it's such a contrast to hear the word intimidating and marine in the same sentence. kitchen, i'm going to be very intimidated, it's a very scary thing, it's a super scary thing. that's why you unfortunately hear about a lot of veterans having to struggle and a tough time, but it's a network and a brotherhood. you gotta pick somebody up, that's why you have a guy like don, who's had so much success in the tech world, he picks a guy like me up and carries me along. lisa: as for kymberly penson, after going through breakline's embedded program, she landed a job at box, a cloud storage company. she is one of a handful of
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kymberly: to be able to leverage an opportunity and program like breakline was pivotal because it absolutely granted me access into this new world that i'd never been exposed to before. specifically, it got me in touch with the right people at different companies to pursue my transition and my future career. lisa: is there something about tech that makes vets uniquely qualified to be in that field? bethany: oh definitely, so tech as an industry is dynamic, it's fast-paced, it's intense , it's competitive. there are a lot of situations that are ambiguous and require inventive thinking. i mean, these are people who were making life or death decisions on very tight timelines and they had to do it with integrity. and so there is literally nothing that the industry could throw at them that would be difficult for them to handle. they are uniquely capable of
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are there other companies and industries that are especially good at hiring vets? lisa: a group called the veterans job's mission started five years ago. 11 leading u.s. companies with the goal to hire 100,000 vets by 2020. there are now 200 30 companies involved like cisco, jpmorgan, starbucks, verizon. they have upped their goal to one million veterans by 2020. sharyl: thanks, lisa. next on "full measure" -- vets aren't the only ones looking for jobs.
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sharyl: on our recent trip to maine to look at the state's welfare reform efforts, we heard a rumor that the governor's wife was waiting tables at a local seafood restaurant. so we went to see how the first lady is serving maine. ann lepage: hey folks, how you doing over here?
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waterfront in boothbay harbor, maine. tourists and locals flock here for some of maine's famous seafood -- lobster, haddock, scallops. ann: how about carrot sticks? sharyl: most don't know it, but there's one member of the wait staff who quietly enjoys some special political pull. ann: two tv stations had me hooked up and i was going around and they were following me around. and one of the gals that i work with said, "why are they here?" and basically, it was the same thing i said to that table. i said, "it's because of who i'm and she said, "well, who are you married to?" and i said, "the governor." she says, "what governor?" i said, "the governor of maine" sharyl: but the governor's wife, ann lepage, isn't working just for the fun of it. are you saving for a car? ann: i'm saving for a car, yeah. sharyl: oh, what kind of car? ann: i want a rav-4. toyota rav-4. sharyl: besides saving for her dream ride, lepage says waitressing is connecting her to her neighbors. do you think you get bigger tips because of this or smaller tips?
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on and told me to put it towards my car fund. i had a little lady from california send me a check for my car fund and i sent her a nice little note back and thanked her. but i said, "i couldn't possibly accept your check." sharyl: the extra family income doesn't hurt. as it happens, maine's governor lepage earns the lowest salary of any governor in the 50 states -- $70,000 a year. next lowest is arkansas, which pays governor asa hutchinson just under $87,000. on the other side of the earning spectrum, pennsylvania's governor tom wolf pulls in the most, just under $188,000. governor bill haslam of tennessee makes nearly $182,000. but he's the wealthiest elected official in the country, worth $2 billion from his time as a business executive and turns down his whole public salary. new york governor andrew cuomo earns $179,000 a year. so what does the governor with the smallest paycheck in the
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table? gov. lepage: she said, "i have an opportunity to go to work at the restaurant, i'd like to go." and we have a home there, so she could stay right at home. and i said, "you know how that's gonna look? i am gonna get crucified. so, let me say how this turned out. teddy roosevelt said about his daughter, i could be president of the united states and run the country or i can control my daughter, but i can't do both. and the same goes for my wife. i love her dearly, but i can't tell her what to do." sharyl: don't expect lepage her -- lepage to stop waiting tables anytime soon. ann: so i told my husband, "this year, it's a car. next year, it's a boat." gov. lepage: she's a pistol. she's absolutely wonderful. sharyl: of course, working at a seafood restaurant, right on the waterfront, lepage has some heartfelt advice for patrons. what do you recommend on the menu here? ann: well, that was, that was a challenge for me, because i eat
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sharyl: what? ann: i've lived in maine my entire life, we're known for our seafood, and i don't touch seafood. so, but, of course the lobster. everybody's got to have the lobster. sharyl: what, so, what do you got against seafood? just not your cup of tea? ann: it's just not my cup of tea. sharyl: the story goes that after lepage worked at the restaurant for a few days, she decided she needed some of her own cleaning supplies, so she showed up at work with her own bucket and her name written on it. none of this any surprise to the governor, who's been her husband for 32 years. ahead on "full measure" -- we "follow the money" into the high-flying pentagon budget and a new bomber that has a soaring
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sharyl: this week's "follow the money" takes us to the skies and a new air force bomber with a cost estimated at $23.5 billion for 100 planes. designed as an evolution to this, the b-2, the new plane is already hitting turbulence over on capitol hill. ti chiefs have refused to say exactly how much the new b-21 will cost. that prompted this reaction from senator john mccain. sen. mccain: i'm having a difficult time understanding how the public disclosure of a single contract award value funded from an unclassified budget request is going to give the enemy more information on the capabilities of a new bomber, than what the air force has already disclosed. sharyl: for its "stealthy" price tag, the b-21 wins the golden
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and they have a point. for the b-2 bomber, the air force underestimated costs by a staggering 465%. next week on "full measure" -- hurricane matthew brings back the issue of hurricanes, coastal communities, and the cost of recovery. this used to be land? >> this used to be land -- all along here. sharyl: in louisiana, an indian tribe is facing high water and a threat to their very existence. they're also on the receiving end of millions of your tax dollars to move their entire town to higher ground. so-called climate refugees and who's really to blame for the community's flooding problems-- next week on "full measure." that's all for this week. thank you for watching. i'm sharyl attkisson. until next time, we'll be
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you for watching community matters. we hope you'll continue to watch as we discuss issues facing our community and provide you with the resources and information needed to find solutions. ?? this week, the triangle is traveling the world from october 14-16. the 31st annual international festival will be held in raleigh. and joining us today are festival chair, bearta alchacar, and joe walton, a local brewer participating in the festival's newly expanded beer garden. thanks for joining us, guys. appreciate it. thanks for having us. 31 years the festival's been taking place. tell us about this year's festival. ok. this year marks our 31st year. we have about 50 cultures that participate in

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