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tv   Mad Money  NBC  March 30, 2012 3:00am-4:00am EDT

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>> we'd like to get in on this. >> tammy, we love you so much. >> we'll miss you. we'll see you tomorrow. >> we'll miss you. we'll see you tomorrow. clear clear -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com >> i'm jim cramer and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. >> firms are going to go out of business and he's nuts. they're nuts. they know nothing. >> i always like to say, there's a bull market somewhere. >> "mad money", you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to tertain you, but to educate you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. ooh, is spain suddenly back on our radar screen? was the stunning decline in italian banks responsible for almost the entire morning's weakness? until late afternoon when the market mounted a nice rebound. dow closing up 20 points.
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but s&p didn't get in black. nasdaq down .31%. was it the weaker than expected jobless claims this morning? is that what made us concerned when we have that dive? is the economy slowing, or perhaps the speech the president gave where he absolutely blasted the oil companies for making so much money? while at the same time of course, in this time of economic weakness, the price of oil keeps falling. or maybe, just maybe, the phenomena we experienced before the end of the day rally, was the dreaded lock-in. never heard of the lock-in? that's okay. you got work in a hedge fund business to know what the lock-in is. even then, it's been so long, that you might not have figured it out. okay, i want you to go back with me. way back. 19 years back. in the beginning of 1991, a hedge fund, staring right at the start of the first gulf war in this country.
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ever since august of the previous year our nation and u.n. had been negotiating back and forth with saddam hussein. we had been patient with the dictator. but after months and months of stalling, president george bush the first decided no more. no more making peace. it was time it make war. now the government pretty much told everyone who would listen that this war was going to start the third week of january. at my hedge fund we come in with a pretty decent year of 1990. when many other funds put up sub par numbers. we were confident that we have leeway in how we would play the game going forward. we didn't have any kids back then. so karen cramer, also my partner at the firm, some say my boss, said let's skip the beginning of the year entirely. let's go to the islands. let's go to st. johns until the war starts. all she wanted to know was how quickly we would win. some thought it would take months to win. others said a year.
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bogged down because of the strength of the iraqi republican guard. i said soften them up with an aerial bombardment that would make lbj's attempt to break the backs of the north vietnam liberation army look like child's play. then we put boots on the ground and we bought back the iraqis, i would say in maybe a couple of days. she told me, get your stocks together that you like. we will buy the heck out of them. buy the heck out of them. lever up, get in a ton of call options. margin the most we can. the moment our soldiers see the whites of the iraqi's eyes, that's when we're going to do it, and that's exactly what we did. on february 23, 1991, we sauntered into the office and used every bit of our buying power to put as much of our capital and goldman sachs's capital to work as we could. ladies and gentlemen, do not try this at home. five days later the war was over. when the smoke cleared, cramer partners, up 28%.
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she said, all right, we're done. time it take out the catalogs, go to the movies, take long lunches. i said how long. now to the moral of the story. how long are we doing this? until the end of december, idiot. we're locking it in. but i liked work. we just day-traded. took the summer off. fourth quarter. did some good buying so we were in shape for 1992. funny thing, i tell you because here we are in 2012. rally, 20%. nasdaq is even better. stunning 18%, people. i cannot stress to you enough just how amazing these numbers are. that's why i come out here every night and say, look, man, this is the real deal. i cannot stress to you how great they are. especially after the market's hideous performance. that's why i want to put new the shoes of all of the money managers who want to lock in their gains so they can read catalogs, take the summer off,
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spend more time with theids or binge view great cable shows. the performance for many hedge funds this year is superb. i think what we saw for most of the day was this exact phenomenon. why? because most of the profit taking was concentrated in huge winners. the banks, retailers, plus nobody seemed to want the oils to do any damage to portfolios. they are kicking them out. of course, it is awfully tough to keep a fabulous market down. after the lock-in was completed, you saw an explosion in buying across the board. particularly china. china on plays. china on. remember, we don't believe in that risk on/risk off, some sort of yesteryear hedge fund gibberish, except when people came on tv. at least interest rate cuts, in china, clearly somebody smells the chinese rate cut. maybe as soon as sunday night. take joy global, one of my favorite companies, the acknowledged leader in mining
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equipment. today, cut numbers, joy, as we put it in the trade. of course cuts came from weakness. horrendous 20% decline. incredibly cheap natural gas prices. prices we're enjoying. i mean, unless you're ultra pete or in which case you aren't enjoying it. it initially fell almost a dollar. then stabilized, then flew up and rallied $1.60. along with jjc, simple for etf that tracks copper, yeah, that's china. all to the green. green early for the rest of the market. stock is heading down. only the oil and oil-related plays stayed on the canvas from another two buck decline and crude off the petroleum over obscene tax breaks although they don't seen all that pornographic to me.
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it is mystified. but it all makes sense when you look at the through the lens of the money-management business. mechanics of the business that many are in. just like i told that you monday was the day when underperforming hedge fund managers took stocks up to increase their performance and bought outperforming equities to show clients how smart they are. i owned apple. today was lock-in day for the winners. the master. bottom line, winning portfolio managers particularly hedge fund managers know when to quit when they're ahead. don't think the cramers are the only one to figure that out. the only one this morning is register ringing followed by catalog thumping. they could absorb this kind of selling and rebound from it. don't worry, winners aren't done with their lock-in. they have all day tomorrow to finish selling and i'll bet they'll take it. i'm going to tom in florida. tom? >> caller: tom from the florida panhandle.
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>> oh man, are you near the 98? are you going to red neck riviera panama city with me? >> oh, i don't know. a couple weeks ago we had rate change thrown out in ohio. 64% coal generation. are these too much head winds? time to ring the register or we have more room to grow? >> i'm always looking for 4.5 to 5% yield. i still believe that american electric power fixed that. i think they are descent guys and they will get through this and continue to pay a really good dividend. now let's go to eric in north carolina. eric? >> caller: hey, jim. i'm a quadruplet. so everything is a competition, including our portfolios. i made a large bet on mosaic and potash, i'm wondering why they are black. is mosaic a buy?
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>> i read notes today that were so positive on mosaic saying don't listen to their guidance. it was the guidance that drove things down. i think mosaic is a buy. i do prefer potash. i think that's mistaken. i think have you a good point with mosaic. although again, i have to tell you, higher qualities remain the p-o-t. the power of quitting while you're ahead. i got to tell you, if people are locking it in today. hedge funds know it too well. you know what? they're not done. they will do some locking in tomorrow. we'll be right back. >> coming up, data gold mine? facebook, shopping, twitter, banking. most things you do in your daily live are now digital. as more of the world communicates, a deluge of data is created. all this week, cramer is putting your tweets on the air. tonight, jim's hitting the high
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seas to see if one stock could begin a new voyage. plus, you're hired. is the recovery as strong as it's seen this quarter? tonight, cramer is getting the real unemployment picture in his earnings exclusive with the ceo of paychex. all coming up on "mad money." miss out on some "mad money"? get your "mad money" text alert today. text mm to 26221 to get cramer right on your phone. for more info, visit madmoney.cnbc.com or call us at 800-743-cnbc. having one of those days? tired. groggy. can't seem to get anything done.
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i know these soggy openings, they can be a little discouraging. but when we get this action with price breaks in the morning, i like it pull back on my favorite big picture themes and do some buy, buy, buy, buying. these are longer term trends that don't rise or fall with every tick of the s&p or dow. exactly the sort of thing you want to circle the wagons around, on what looks to be a so-so day, but there's some selling. sure enough, i open the paper this morning. what do i see? there's this article. page b2 of the new york times. new u.s. research will aim at flood of digital data. holy cow. that one of the hottest themes around.
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big data. >> what's big data? let me refer you to the story in the times. as good a definition as i have seen on wall street, quote. big data refers to the rising flood of digital data from many sources. including biological and industrial sensors. video, e-mail and network communications, end quote. combine all of this information from high computing tools that opens the door to all new possibilities. now, the new york times piece was centered about how the government is spending about $2.5 billion on big data. they even know the term big data -- it's the third line. big data. of course, a host of different federal agencies. there's been a huge deal in the private sector for a while now too. even though we talked about this trend before, i'm seeing ipos connected to it and tonight i ought to tip my hat to the times
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for calling attention once again to this terrific money-making theme. remind you that big data is still on fire. it is especially important when the day-to-day action in morning is getting real ugly and in italy, italian banks, spanish, the usual. now when we talk about big data here on money, we mean the company with with the technology to analyze and store this stuff. we are trying to make money off the concept. everything helps companies deal with and profit from data overload. we have additional information that it is still growing strong when cramer fave red hat -- whoa, just a second. i always feel like sinatra here. the chairman. never mind. anyway, favored red hat. leading provider of open source software and services to the enterprise reported a spectacular quarter last night. sent the stock soaring $10.04. from 19.5% today.
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red hat knocked it out of park. it was incredible. delivering 31% billings growth, a staggering figure that even i wasn't expecting. i was so bullish on this one, i told to you buy it ahead of the earnings report. said it was the pick of the week. of course red hat is far from the daily. they have a strong business courtesy of the acquisition. mostly an enterprise software player on the periphery of big data. however, if red hat customers are spending that much, that means they are buying tech to handle the data explosion. my big favorite data theme, remains emc. we own it for my charitable trust which you can follow on the league, won twice today. fabulous. also a cnbc contributor. whether data protection security, emc, the place to be.
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plus, also owns 80% of vm ware, smoking hot virtualization software play. that's the place for the data store server. rather than buy egg and operating nonvirtual machines. it saves corporations a bundle on hardware. not to mention real estate and cooling expenses. that's very important. since these servers take up a lot of space and run real hot. now the emc has been on an acquisition spree. an acquisition spree. they picked up pivotal labs, a tool company whose products are used in big data applications. don't be daunted by the fact that emc is less than a point off. the stock is trading at a ridiculously low 14.7 times earnings. even though it's got a long-term growth rate and i think it has more room to run. especially from red hat, which
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suggests the enterprise market is booming. seems like the docket that comes down with groucho. what else works? you can buy ibm. sirius, big data exposure. even though ibm is diversified technology and consulting business, they have been moving into big data pretty aggressively. ibm is where you go to analyze it. that's why ibm is so strong. i think it understands the enterprise market better than anyone else. they were pioneered twice in this world. i realize the $208 share price in this one can be alarming. remember ibm plans to earn $20 a share by 2015. that's their 2015. and they are ahead of schedule on the plan. remember i tell to you divide by ten. even though ibm is flirting with highs, it remains cheap. actually, it's cheaper.
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but it does have a 10.8% growth rate, not 15%. that's a small price to pay if ibm can generate the level of growth. i bet they can. finally if you are looking for a big data play, more focused than these two. i'm willing to endorse tdc. terra data. okay? terra data is a pure data warehousing outfit. warehousing lets companies quickly and efficiently analyze data stored on different systems. a retailer could combine information about sales and find out what kind of incentives work for that customer. multiply that by the whole customer base and you can see the potential. best of all, the company has arg, which is not a pirate term but which is accelerated revenue growth. which i respect and many on wall street salivate for it. as the wp was smoking hot,
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fundamentals is too cheap to stay independent. the stock has given us 84% gain since then. hey, better than a sharp stick in the eye. there is 15% long-term growth rate. that's not too expensive when you consider the terrific quarter the company reported last month or the potential for more accelerating revenue growth. there are other ways, all right. cloud data based software, that has been acting well. we know sap made a move into the memory data business. when the paper of record tells us that big data is the future of technology, you better pay attention. emc, ibc, terra data. my favorite ways to play it. sap, i know oracle will say, why didn't you mention oracle. so oracle. oh, and thanks again to the paper that has all of the news that is fit to print. because a lot of it is fit to
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make money too. after the break, i will try to make you more money. >> coming up, calmer waters. all this week, cramer is putting your tweets on the air. @jimcramer #madtweets. see if one stock will make a new voyage. are we already feeling the facebook effect? take a look at the real reason behind the success of a few recent ipos. the answer might surprise you. coming up "mad money." oh. let's go. from the crack, off the backboard. [ laughs ] dad! [ laughs ] whoo! oh! you're up! oh! oh! so close! now where were we? ok, this one's good for two. score! [ male announcer ] share what you love
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every day this week is special. why? because i'm reading your tweets. looking for the best questions and answering them on air. sorry, i got up at 5:00 this morning, that wasn't early. not just to prove that i'm hip and know how to use the newfangled social media sites that the kids can't get enough of, exact target, zynga, good secondary. we are doing this because, believe it or not, many of the questions that come on twitter are incredibly insightful. they really give me a sense of where i should be going. plus, give me a feel of what you, the home gamer, are looking at. and it gives people like you the tools you need to be better investors.
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let me know if you are able to get in on any of these hot deals. it is vital for me for what i'm working on. this question is hey@jimcramer. i think this that is a great, albeit grammatically incorrect, query. both cruise companies have been under pressure since january when a carnival ship ran aground off the coast of italy's island in the mediterranean. tragic accident. 30 people died. nothing is more disastrous than the loss of life. from a business perspective carnival also lost a ship and its reputation suffered a black eye. this period is known as wave season. a time when a large number of travelers book cruisers for a year. you bet this scared off a lot of potential customers.
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carnival was hit hard losing 14% of its value on the news since it was their ship. both cruise stocks have been rallying, which leaves me and now doubt, rick, my tweeter, is it okay to look at these companies here? can we buy a stock like carnival cruise less than three months after the disaster? i think we can. i think we can buy it. that's why tonight's i'm taking the cruise lines out of the cell block and telling you that carnival, the one that had the accident, is the one to buy. the reason, as you are dealing with this incident, as tragic as it is for families and friends who lost their lives, the truth is that accidents fade away from consumers' minds and eventually things revert to normal. remember how people were afraid to fly after 9/11? eventually consumers got over their fear and took to the skies again.
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when it comes to the cruise business, you know i think we have already reached the point where the worst may be over. when things get back to normal, since it is a two-horse race, a slap happy duopoly, when it is dominated by carnival and royal which control nearly three quarters of the market. the barrier to entry is high because it is expensive to build ships and that allows carnival and royal caribbean keep prices more elevated than you would have thought. secondly, carnival reported on march 9, it beats the streets estimates. even as they slash guidance because of the tragedy as well as the rapidly escalating price of fuel. these floating cities use a ton of oil. even though carnival is experiencing lower demand, they're not cutting prices. they are holding the line. that makes me think they know business is already coming back. they want to make as much money as possible in the throng of returns. carnival is bigger, down 2% year to date. royal caribbean is up 17%.
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most of all, carnival pays you to wait for a turnaround with a yield. you know how much i like dividends. that's much higher than royal caribbean's 3.1%. the future will only get brighter from here on out. however, when you are trying to call a bottom, look at fundamentals, after severe decline based on bad news, it is not enough in this particular case and in every case like that, to just think about fundamentals. when i see something like this which seems like it is dangerous, i also need to integrate charts. in this kind of situation, you're basically trying to figure out if you're bottom fishing or trying to catch a falling knife. i love the fish. bought myself a boat this winter. but i hate to catch knives. though i did split my finger if half once, when i was whittling as a kid. i tried to hide it from from my parents because i was worried they were going to yell at me. so we talked to two different
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good chartists. they both confirm the down side seems pretty limited. first, check out this daily chart of carnival cruise from dan fitzpatrick. frequently on cnbc. fitzpatrick isn't in love with carnival, to be honest. but there are definitely elements to the chart he likes. carnival has been building a base for the last eight months. here's our base, okay? even after the concordia disaster the stock held at 29, that's pretty amazing, when you think about it. the concordia accident reinforced stock support trend, made the base stronger. it was a high volume washout that got rid of most of the weak cans. which has been acting as a ceiling of resistance above the stock. i don't like to wait, you know that, i like to get in ahead. but a chart is talking.
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once carnival closes above this, now at 33 is where the average is, more than a dollar above where the stock went out today. and he thinks the base building will be complete and he will be a buyer. now he prefers royal caribbean. but as suggested, we are fishing for a bottom. look at this chart of carnival. different thought pattern. talking about carolyn, she runs the web site fibonacci queen, and she has a unique method. she likes the carnival, has been making higher highs and higher lows for the last month. that's what she's keying on. when she sees this pat pattern, she likes to buy on the next pull back. remember, we have talked about leonardo fibonacci before. the medieval mathematician who discovered ratios that repeat endlessly in nature and in the market. at least accord. we are not talking about nonmathematician, leonardo decaprio, even though "titanic" is about to come back out again in 3-d.
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the first zone is between $30.59 and $31.06. right in here. second one is from $29.81 to $29.96. if the stock tests and holds either of these two levels, consider being a buyer. in other words, fits wants it to go up to be a buyer. fitz wants to go above that line. and carolyn want it to go below to be a buyer. that's interesting. we're splitting the difference here. my take, you can start buying now, as it goes lower, you can get more aggressive. here is the bottom line. this is hit with horrible news. technicals as interpreted by fitzpatrick indicate the down side for the cruise lines is limited here. while our two chartists prefer royal caribbean, i think carnival is the better buy, based on the fundamentals. really good management and juicy yield.
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you can take your time with this one, nibble on any pull back just like the one we got today. let's take calls, not just tweets, but some calls. let's go to charles in texas. charles? >> jim, this is charles in fort worth, texas. i want to say you inspired me to invest disney in the mid 20s. recently you said there is no catalyst for the stock to go higher. a few months ago, disney released the european cruise ship cabin and hotels in 2013. there are pretty dramatic price raises. is this a tribute to the ben bernanke, is the glass half full or half empty for disney? >> that's exactly what happened. and they can afford to do that. they have plenty of demand. second of all, when i said no catalyst, i was thinking of "john carter." and secondarily, rates may be
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plateauing for cable ads. but disney is okay. so i think you're okay. i think that disney is a decent stock. but it did run off a 52-week high after that bomb of a movie. how about we go to mae in california? >> caller: hi, this is mae. i'm calling about -- i focus on trying to -- what do you think about it is time to buy? >> i got to tell you, mae. i prefer, if you want chinese travel and my trust sold too early. rode it down, bought more, bought more. but the stock is the best. they're building a hundred hotels in china. all right, thank you for your tweets. keep them coming. cruise lines have been hit hard. but it looks like it's time to start with carnival. please, remember, everyone, go to @jimcramer. tell me if you were able to get into any of these. were you able to get into demand
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ware, mm, millennial? let me no. give me the news. stay with cramer.
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it is time, it is time for the lightning round. rapid fire calls. and then, the lightning round is over. are you ready skeedaddy? lightning round, start with larry in south carolina. larry? >> caller: jim, this is big syracuse university, boo-yah. >> i'm liking that boo-yah, what's up? listening to judge wapner, i'm with him. let's go to debbie in new york. debbie? >> caller: hey, boo-yah to you
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from new york. >> holy cow, i used to go there a lot. what's up? >> caller: how do you feel about ebix? >> good. enterprise software company. i'll see you and raise you with guide wire. gwre. which i think actually is even better. new software company just came public recently. now to ron in illinois. ron? >> caller: american realty capital trust. arct. >> you know what? i know you're not going to want to hear this. i know a lot of people are bummed out. look at that dividend and pull the trigger. now to matt in new york. matt? >> caller: boo-yah from brooklyn, how are you? >> good. how are you? >> caller: i want your take on yum. >> i like that, charitable trust. i think it is terrific. to greg in texas. greg? >> caller: yeah. electronics ticker. >> i think you ought to. i don't think there is that much there to recommend.
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may i suggest you should by allergan. >> caller: venice beach boo-yah there. >> nice, used to live in my car there. it's beautiful. what's up? >> caller: nova gold is spinning off nova copper. splitting off their copper asset. any catalyst to get back in? >> i think that will create value but no one seems to like the stock. that's okay. no one likes gold miners to begin with. let's keep that in check. and now, up to greenberg calling in the show. to herb in new york. herb? >> caller: yes, jim. >> herb, you'll do anything to get on tv. >> caller: twx? >> that's a housing play, and i like it very much. people don't realize it is housing, but it does well and makes a lot of money. i think it is the single best work. see how the journal picked it up today? herb broke that story.
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robert in indiana. >> caller: boo-yah, jim, how you doing? >> not bad. how are you, hoosier? >> caller: good. csx railroad beefing up intermodal service? >> i think is a slow road. i don't like the coal stocks and they ship a lot of coal. ladies and gentlemen, that's the conclusion of the lightning round. save them. presenting woolite complete. it cleans your jeans, and won't torture your tanks. so your clothes stay looking and fitting like new. woolite. long live your wardrobe.
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you want to get a good read on the employment situation? forget about the jobs numbers this morning. we have another data point that
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sometimes i think is more important. paychex. second largest payroll company in america. it reported this morning, and you can take your cue from these guys, especially from small business, which is their bread and butter. it has a bountiful 4% yield. prefer to pick up in hiring and small business formation or rate hike from feds sometimes down the road. any of these things can be fantastic for paychex. plus, while i think it is foolish to bet on the outcome of a supreme court decision, paychex will be a definite winner if they end up overturning obamacare. it would spur higher rates in small businesses. inline quarter this morning and reaffirm the guidance the rest of the year. more important the key metric checks per payroll improved for the eighth straight quarter. i seem more upbeat about the company's prospects than the company itself. so let's check in with marty mucci, the ceo of paychex, to
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find out more about the quarter and where his company is headed. welcome back it "mad money." >> thanks, jim. great to be here. >> all right, sir. i feel like many of the analysts missed the conference call. we got excited because we see a lot of things that we like. we see that selling season looks pretty good. business retention is getting better. yet i felt like almost all of the questions wanted you to be positive. you, caveat the thing, and you said, listen, not yet, not yet, not yet. is that a fair characterization? >> i think we are trying to be conservative. but with service revenue up 8%. sales up in the third quarter, first time in two years in mid single digits. and the checks per payroll as you said, were flat really were up. but up the same as second quarter and we thought that was going to moderate. so maybe we're a little conservative on the call but we feel good about it. >> the reason i say that is you used the analogy that i hate to hear.
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companies that are not the biggest in the world. you said, it's a battle ship that turned them around. i think if you were a cruiser or destroyer, it is going to take a lot of time, won't it? >> you know, the battleship moves pretty quickly. this is an important quarter for our selling but we want to be sure that you know, we're continuing to see those sales go up. remember that the new business starts are still pretty flat, jim, and i know that concerns you. but they are still pretty flat but we have made up for it by finding other channels that will pick up, including against our competition, our cpa referrals, you know, we have been able to make up for the new businesses being flat. >> do you think that cpa referral business which was mentioned several times, is that working only during tax time? or can that be a full year business? >> that's a full year for us. it's very important from the
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beginning of paychex. we made a good relationship with our cpas, with our sales folks. we get referrals from the cpas and they close very well. we close those at a very high rate and we make sure we take care of the cpa's client. >> morgan stanley does not like their stock. i want to quote, first sentence here. following another inline quarter, weakness suggests recent underperformances will continue. and they add without material improvement interest rates or business formation, we see few catalyst for estimates to move higher as third quarter results were largely inline with consensus. i think you gave us plenty of reason it will go higher, away from interest rates and new business formation on this conference call. >> well, i think so too. we're high on the stock obviously. proud of the employees. we got great service results. sales picking up in this quarter. and it's our important selling season. we've got new product rolling out. we've had a single sign on for clients to reach all our
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products and we have android and a smart phone app coming out. i feel very good about it. it is a tough environment but i think we are finding ways around it to grow the revenue. >> in one of the questions that, talking about the $800 million on the balance sheet, might be close to a billion dollars. then you talk about, well, you a capital allocation here. you have a lot of money in cash. it seems like you could return more of that to the shareholders than you already have. >> we could. we like to stay very flexible on acquisitions. we have been pretty active in the last year and half for us. more payroll got us into the market for do it yourself payroll providers. e-plan which helps in the 401(k) business. which we are number one in already. and we acquired a small time and attendance company in the last quarter. we will obviously discuss it with the board. whether there is buy backs in our future. but certainly we like to keep very flexible on acquisitions to grow the business.
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>> my friend, larry kudlow, i know would he would ask, why didn't you ask, are regulations preventing start-ups, which is a big driver for small businesses? >> i don't think it helped any. consumer confidence is the number one thing, you know. until people start buying more goods and services and get more confident, businesses won't start up or expand. but i do think regulations are hurting them a little bit. on the other hand, i would say in this business, regulations sometimes help more people to decide to outsource their payroll to an expert like paychex. so i think it does go a little both ways to be honest. >> one last question. as someone, as you know, a client of your firm, i worry about the supreme court. if they say it's fine to obamacare, i have to figure out how many people on my payroll i can continue to have because this will be a step-up. this must be very important to you as sometime you got to be monitoring pretty closely, aren't you? >> yes, we are.
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our health and benefit revenue is up 25% over last year. this is a great business for us. we also got back up plans that if something continues with the health reform, if it continues on the path it's on, we'll have another plan. we are the expert and have the payroll data to help people make the right choice in health care. i think we will see 20% growth continue in that insurance business, that's for sure. >> that would be terrific. marty mucci, thank you so much for coming on the show. >> okay, jim, thanks for having me. >> i disagree with morgan stanley. i think there are many moving parts going for you. but i do agree if interest rates go up and we get some formation this stock will yield 3% or maybe 2%. that's not because they cut the dividend, it is because of stock appreciation. stay with paychex. stay with cramer.
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when you look at the ipo market, are we witnessing the big institutions trying to pave the way to get shares for the launch of facebook? when i see the strong demand for the deals we have seen this week, it makes me wonder if mutual funds aren't saying okay, i will play with all of the ipos, like cafe press, hardly a tech company, if you just give me a chance to get some facebook down the road. put in for demand ware or exact target with money media and hold on to it.
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you're earning your ticket for the main event. the facebook ipo now on track for may. to me, at least the fact that mutual funds are most certainly not flipping any of these deals, because they go up so much, represent the effort that these concerns are holders and investors, not traders and flippers. [ gunshot ] so maybe it'll do the same thing for facebook. it worked for big kahuna deals. book runners for facebook want it placed well. these totally hot deals that give these investors a leg up on others in the facebook lottery. oh, i was going to show you my mega millions ticket but then you would know what number i'm playing. why does this matter to you? one of the side benefits of the whole process is that the ipos
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themselves perform much better than you or anyone would expect because the usual flippers are absent. they don't want to flip because they want some facebook. everyone is on their best behavior to get a piece of the hugely profitable pie that might be the largest deal of all time. i think it makes it imperative for you to get in on the deals. especially because many of them are not thought to be that hot, at least going in. take a look at annie's. the chatter wasn't ahead of the ipo. stock was available for home gamers and for mutual funds. meaning you would have gotten in on a deal that almost doubled right out of the gate. the fact of the cafe press, cyclical, uneven growth, tells me that facebook is most certainly game on. other words i wouldn't have expected a pop on this one. priced above the expected range and still jumping 14% at the opening. if people are willing to buy and hold nontech somewhat non proprietary like cafe express.
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the earnings aren't making that stock red-hot. consider this your green light, at least until facebook comes public in may. numerous institutions on their their best buy and hold behavior to impress the book runners in the upcoming facebook deal. i say enjoy it while it lasts. let me know if you are able to get in on these deals right now. give me the personal skinny of your attempts to get your share of the great wall street giveaway. stick with cramer. this is lois. the day starts with arthritis pain... a load of new listings... and two pills. after a morning of walk-ups, it's back to more pain, back to more pills. the evening showings bring more pain and more pills. sealing the deal... when, hang on... her doctor recommended aleve. it can relieve pain all day with fewer pills than tylenol. this is lois...
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who chose two aleve and fewer pills for a day free of pain. [ female announcer ] try aleve d for strong all day sinus and headache relief. a, the appearance. amber. [ jim ] b, balance. sam adams has malt sweetness, hoppy bitterness. [ jim ] c, complexity. pine notes, grapefruit notes. only believe your own pallet. go taste them. do your lashes want volume or length? how about both? with covergirl lashblast fusion our biggest brush meets our fiberstretch formula for a blast of volume and length. lashblast fusion. from easy, breezy, beautiful covergirl.
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a lot of fishersrying to call it just like we had this morning in best buy, trying to call it. so many good stocks. why are you messing with that? are you getting around the hot ipos? let me know if you get shares.

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