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Search Results 0 to 49 of about 259 (some duplicates have been removed)
CNBC
Jun 22, 2013 6:00am EDT
, on an expiration friday. and china, brazil, india, or russia, all in the midst of a sell-off. that is helping the dollar have its best week in 18 months. that could be a problem for stocks right here. let's get in the money right now and find out why we saw the pain in commodities. so, of course, the logical question is, could multi-nationals start feeling the pain next? dan, what do you say? >> listen, to me, i think it's very simple. i think, like i've said it a few times on this desk, the s&p has been a safe haven. we're starting to see treasuries with this safe haven. the dollar has come back in vogue this week. the fed told us the outlook was a little better, economic outlook, than a lot of people had thought they would. but the rest of the world is melting down. i think people come back to treasuries and they'll come back to the dollar. for me, does this create potential headwinds for u.s. multi-nationals that get a good bit of their sales from overseas? i think that's going to be the story of this summer. >> we've already seen that a little bit in the last earnings season, w
CNBC
Aug 19, 2012 6:00am EDT
, here is a number we haven't mentioned yet. china yum gets 43% of growth from china. the chinese market is telling us something. shanghai, three-year lows, data doesn't get better out of china i want to focus this name in the near term. >> dan is bearish. we use this strategy a lot. on hiatus two weeks. good to open the playbook, see how this works. how do you make money? you want the stock to fall to the short put strike. that's where you make the most money. that's also where your profits are capped. dan, walk us thought trade. >> i want to buy a put spread in october, and it will catch q 3 earnings. much more expensive than mcdonald's, mcdonald's can't get out of its own way on a technical basis. i bought the october 62 half, 55 put spread for $1.10. one of the october 62 half puts for $1.40. i sold one on the october 55 puts and max risk is $110 i make money between 61.40 and 55 my max gain, 55 or lower, and i can lose up to 1.10, between 61.40 and 62 half and above 62 half, i lose the entire $1.10. >> do you buy the notion that the shanghai composite is telling us something about t
CNBC
Nov 1, 2014 6:00am EDT
. so here's the deal. this company, they have 80% of the e-commerce market in china. that's a $450 billion market that's growing at 40%. they have 50% ebitda. sound fantastic, right? the thing is working, so why would you get out of it? one thought. know what i mean? mike probably has issues with valuation here but i'm going to say. as a lot of you just said, google has not performed well since september 19th or ipo. amazon has not. netflix, hasn't. a lot of money moved into the stock. a crowded trade. >> i'm not concerned about valuation except extremely concerned about the stock. the reason i'm not concerned about valuation is, trading probably 35 times next month 12 month earnings top line growth rate 50%. if that's real, phenomenal. my question is -- you have a funky ownership structure. that's the first thing that concerns me. secondly, china doesn't have the best possible record of protecting the interests of ownership outside of the chinese. that's just a fact. we've seen it with danon and other companies that invested there. that is a big concern. you know, so when i look a
CNBC
Sep 6, 2013 5:30pm EDT
anticipation there was going to be a china mobile deal him with edid get that report from dow jones. right. >> let me make a real strong case here. apple is losing in china. within they reported in july, their market share year over year in their fiscal q 2 or excuse me q 3 was down 4 percentage points, from 9 to 5%. it's a critical sort of thing. >> you add china mobile, mike, thattiaed the carrier the size of at&t or verizon in terms of volume of phones. >> well, you certainly have the potential for volume. you don't necessarily have the potential for margin. that's certainly one of the issues. one of the things that's true, though the valuation compared to the broad market was looking keep. >> that creates a backstop, as you pointed out, have you the share repurchase going on. you have investors deciding. there is a money flow backstop that's helped out a little bit. it's hard for me to get enthusiastic about it at this point. handset makers, let's be frank, these things should not trade, they're here today, they're gone tomorrow. we have seen it again and again, you may not beli
CNBC
Sep 29, 2012 6:00am EDT
to be bearish. >> it is interesting the impact that nike's results had on a china. mcdonald's was downgraded and the nike news to contend with. >> the growth is coming from china. 45% of the sales come from china. to me we put a trade on the show about a month ago. i bought an october 62.5. the stock is at 66. to me the company reports. this is something i want to stick with. nike had been battered on this news. they missed last quarter here. i'm interested to hear what they have to say here. that stock closed worse today. >> on the trade, i think the nike trade the interesting thing here is the nature changes fundamentally. people love to trade because it is so tied to china. that is good and bad. china can be opaque and the bad is what we have seen in yum lately. >> if you want updates on our trades because things happen real time mike updated his trade this morning be sure to follow us on twitter and dan posts updates of his trades on twitter. if you are on facebook stay posted throughout the week at facebook.com/optionsaction. got the final call from the options pits next. and
CNBC
Nov 11, 2012 6:00am EST
about china? these were all the problems going into the election, same ones coming out of it. >> we don't normally see the market react like this when the president that we expect to see elected ends up being elected. i think dana is right. when he talks about today being disappointing. the s&p closed on the effective low of the day, the last half of the day. the price action was horrible. the vix ended up closing on the high of the day effectively in the high of the last half of the day. and i really think the vix was telling this week on thursday when the s&p had a horrible time the vix was actually lower. and i think people felt like they had seen the worst of the stock market. but then today on a friday with the s&p higher you would have expected the vix to sell off a little bit and close on the high of the day, a little higher which is disappointing. >> we want to talk about these two camps and walk through what we mean. take a look at the earnings specific stories. you saw these names today. really steep declines here. groupon hitting a fresh record low. jcp ditto. disney down
CNBC
Mar 5, 2016 6:00am EST
, right? we've had had a huge rally in this thing and here's the copper. the copper stocks in china are up 11%. you're starting to see potentially there's some manipulation there and nothing has changed on the supply, so why -- why should freeport-mcmoran go up, it shouldn't, so i'll be very careful getting into that one. >> any of these things worth a buy? >> regular viewers will know the last couple of weeks, transports with one sector and materials two weeks ago, clearly i'm wrong. but, you know, back to b.k.'s point, thanks for being here, buddy. >> thanks for having me. >> you take shots and define risk to a certain point and i've been wrong. these things have a tendency to go longer than you think that they will. but i'm not a buyer of them here because freeport is a great example. this was a stock trading at $3.5 and now it's above 10 and that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. can you say, well, it didn't deserve to be down 80%. well, it kind of did for a whole host of reasons. >> there's a lot of reasons why the stock deserved to be down there, but the hard thing is how can
CNBC
Feb 6, 2010 6:00am EST
really china, dan, you're looking at here. >> yeah, we talked about this. these guys win and las vegas sands very exposed to their operations. and a disproportionate amount of growth going forward. one of the things that got me looking at las vegas sands is it's a very levered company on the balance sheet. but if china starts to put the brakes on in a very meaningful way on their economy, with fears of creating new bubbles and inflation that sort of thing, it's going to be a really dangerous time to be a long holder of, you know, las vegas sands, that sort of thing. they're supposed to report las vegas sands earnings in a week or so. the quarter's going to be good. numbers out of mccall last week that were very, very good. the stock's stuck in the mud at 15. so if i own this stock or believe that china could affect the growth over the next six months or something like that. i may look to put on a put spread. one of the things i was looking at was a march 14 12 put spread. i was looking at it earlier today. the stock closed much higher. you may want to look at different strike. bu
CNBC
Dec 20, 2013 5:30pm EST
, straight up. gained $50 billion in market cap in a matter of weeks. that had to do with china mobile. kpeem pekted when they rolled out their 4-g, that iphone would be sold there. it wasn't. the stock has consolidated here. to me, i actually think it could be setting up. i think these guys have opinions on that. >> what's the next catalyst? we would need to get the quarter results and to see holiday sales were good. >> yeah. in the absence of a story on china, obviously we have to be focused on holiday sales. typically when you see a lot of this. they still sell arguably the best products. there hasn't been anything new on the horizon. so i think we're sort of holding our breath right now. i think that's what -- we thinks that china could be a very bullish event. but that won't happen right now. >> domestically the only big thing that can happen is the new ipad celerily well for the holidays, interestingly, almost every stock you look at is near all time highs, apple not so much. well below 705, it's even well below the 571, 52 week high. look at the chart. it looks like from that 57
CNBC
Dec 13, 2009 6:00am EST
or so because they just launched this agreement with china mobile, okay, who actually sells to two-thirds of the mobile subscribers in china, okay? so there is a little china excitement. so investors are keyed on this call, they want to know what's going on. i want to play the volatility. i think the move is priced cheap. i want to buy the december 65 strangle. i want to pay 340 for that. what am i doing here? i'm buying the december 60 put for 130, and i'm buying the december 65 call for 210. for me to make money, okay, next friday on december expiration, i need the stock 68.40 or higher about 7.5% higher or 68 or lower. i am playing for that big move. no doubt about it, this is a low probability trade. i want to say that. you are about to bite my head off. >> i was going to say that because that is very important to note, because in options action, we're always trying to put the odds in your favor. this time the odds are not in dan's favor. mike how do you like this? >> i'll say this, taking a look at how the stock has behaved in the last few earnings, there may have been no stoc
CNBC
Sep 23, 2012 6:00am EDT
ipad. something else about the iphone. china particularly important here. there will be a volume bump with the launch in north america. longer term for the numbers to go up, we need to see china mobile or some other move to keep momentum going because percentagewise china is where the volumes have to be for growth going forward. >> jon, a quick question. it seems like analysts are more and more optimistic. you mentioned 49 million units. they can keep bumping it higher but they will be constrained by the supply of the component and most notably, the new lcds which they're using on this new phone. >> i don't know. i think part of what happened is months ago in june they started getting parts ready for this. this is when we started to see the parts leak. that is earlier than apple has parts coming out. something tells me they started manufacturing on this earlier than usual. maybe a little bit of tim cook's logistics mind happening here. they knew the volumes are going to be huge. a couple of things coming up after the holiday quarter. one is verizon. the verizon changeover date. p
CNBC
Jun 16, 2012 6:00am EDT
a name. nike is exposed to a slowdown in china or in europe. >> here's a company that gets 50% of their sales from overseas and they get a lot of their growth going forward. this has been a teflon stock until just a couple of months ago and it's started to make, you know, a top in formation here and all of a sudden there was a research during the week from a kpaul called otr global. they were commenting on weakening shoe sales or trends in china and the u.s. and weakening apparel trends in western europe. you know, that's all it took to kind of get this thing going lower here, and so when we think about the big growth names, starbucks and lulus, some haven't recovered. >> you're bearish. you're buying a put spread tonight. it's always good to review that playbook and review that strategy again. this is a bearish bet where you buy one put and sell it at a lower rate to reduce your cost how do you make money? you want it to fall to the short put strike. that's where you make the most money. that's also where your markets are kept. dan, walk us through the trade. >> just real quickly
CNBC
Jan 19, 2014 6:00am EST
can argue all night. let's talk about a market mystery. china's stock market is in the gutter. gaining stocks is one of the surprise winners. don chu is back at cnbc. >> melissa, you want to talk about hitting a hot streak. if you look at some of america's biggest gaming companies and casino operators. on a down day for the markets in some way or show, names like wyn, las vegas sands are heading to the up side. the rest of the broader market is trying to keep above water for the year. these stocks have been on fire. las vegas sands is up 4% year to date. wyn is up and mgm is up around 12. this isn't a vegas story. like you said, it's a china one. these companies all operate asia gaming hubs to operations in macau as well. last year wynn generated 70% from macau. macau hit a gaming record in 2013. the bullish story is there if the macau story. >> thank you, don chu. the question, will the gaming streak continue. let's go to carter. hi, carter? >> i think the exposure and if you're a short seller, get in motion. two charts. first you have something that's basically gone from 80,
CNBC
May 7, 2017 6:00am EDT
interesting is the weakness in the dollar. all of a sudden now we're seeing weakness in china. dollars not rounding and rates kind of stuck and not really signaling anything, not signaling that the stock market is about to make an all time high. >> what they're signaling is economic weakness. what we're interested in is the dollar strong, is it inflationary or non-inflationary. we saw the demand in china. that doesn't bode very well if we're going to depend on that. we hear about the inflation trade, where will it come from if the economic growth in the markets is slowing. >> we have lost demand of key items. industrial. not the softs, it's zinc and nickel and if you look at the bloomberg index, new port and nippon, it's all rolled over and copper as well. oil has been in a funk forever. the issue, is it really important for idiosyncratic stocks like amazon that keep going on their business, the message that is right. while the shanghai is in trouble the kospi has all time highs. the two that's tied to are semiconductors, an economic indicator and shipping. there's a lot of cross currents.
CNBC
Jul 15, 2012 6:00am EDT
that matters. one thing i'm going to look at is yum! for china, it's considering to be not that great. one finally thing, vix got killed today. you know, last july the vix was in the low 15s. so don't think it can't go lower. that doesn't mean you can't sell it but you can't go back. >> i understand what you're saying and i don't want to be poly annaish. those were positive on the broader economy. at the same time we got a china gdp number which was in line and sets up for a possible next round of stimulus there. >> okay. starting with the last part first, i don't buy what's going on in china. that economy to me seems like a tremendously risky situation there. there's a house of cards going on there. do you have a point on the loan growth. the home builders have obviously been on an absolute tearer. you're talking about stocks that have been up. they're coming from all but left for dead schl that a positive sign? that's a positive sign, but it's like someone fluttering their eyelashes and out cold on the sidewalk. >> what's interesting the wells fargo report, i view as genuine.
CNBC
Jun 15, 2012 5:00pm EDT
as a potential short. nike is exposed globally to a slow down potentially in china or in europe. >> no doubt about it. this is a company with 50% of sales from overseas. they get a lot of growth going forward. in the last year this has been a teflon stock until a couple months ago. it just started to make a topping formation here. all of the sudden there was a research report earlier in the week by otr global. they have a following there. they were commenting on weakening shoe sales or trends in china and the u.s. weakening apparel trends in western europe. that's all it took to get this thing going lower here. when we think about some of the big growth names like starbucks and lulu, they have not recovered. this is the first kink in the armor with nike. >> this is a common way to make a bearish trade but it's good to review the strat by the. this is a bearish bet where you buy a put and sell a lower strike to reduce your cost. you want the stock to fall to the short put strike. that's where you make the money and where your profits are kept. walk us through the trade, dan. >> w
CNBC
Jul 13, 2012 5:00pm EDT
probably a better barometer of the financial sector. that's considered a proxy year for china. for china it's considered to be not that great. one final thing, vix got killed today as you would expect when the s&p is up 22 on a friday. don't think it can't go lower. >> what they said about commercial loan growth and mortgage origination. sets up for a ponl next round of stimulus there. >> i don't really buy a lot of what is going on in china, either. that economy seems like a tremendously risky situation. i think there is a lot of house of cards stuff going on there. on the loan growth mortgage origination, home builders have been on an absolute terror. we're talking stocks up two or three hundred%. so, is that a positive sign. it's a positive sign. someone fluttering an eyelash. >> to mike's point. i think what's is interesting is the wells fargo report i view as genuine. the j.p. morgan report, i don't view as genuine. making a strong earnings beat on an investment bank. i agree wholeheartedly. i think the commercial banking side is very strong. investment banking business is half of t
CNBC
Mar 15, 2015 6:00am EDT
apple's growth is going to come from overseas, china, and so to me i have a hard times squaring the circle here, that if much of the growth will come in the back half of the year right, from like emerging markets with china, how do they withstand the price increases? who knows where china's currency is going to grow? if the peg is broken again. given the next six months so i'm hard pressed. tim cook's answer was very nonchalant in my opinion. i know they have very sophisticated hedging programs. let's remember, this is kind of a luxury product that we're dealing with in the iphone. >> well, i mean it is. here's the way you need to think about it, i think. is the amount of people that upgraded last quarter, i believe they said in the u.s., in terms of the installed base was low key. that's a very, very small number. so i completely agree with this you that international growth you have to be worried about. they talked about on the call how they repriced products in russia. but they still put up good numbers. the good news is there's so many more people left in the u.s. to upgrade. an
CNBC
Sep 6, 2015 6:00am EDT
in china. >> you know what that femt like to me? >> what? >> subprime's contained. i'm just saying. >> i didn't like that e-mail at all. >> coming up next, your tweets and the final call from the options pits. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. y
CNBC
Jan 23, 2016 6:00am EST
. we're opening 500 new stores a year in china. >> yeah, well, despite the bullish comments and an earnings report, the starbucks stock was flat today. you've been bearish the name. you've been short. >> well, we put on a put spread ahead of earnings because we thought if there was any risk, it would be to the downside. a lot of people pointed to china but i think actually regardless of whether the economy is strong there, it is migrating in the direction of a more mature sort of service-based economy. that's obviously helpful for starbucks. it is not helpful for a bearish bet to have them come in and say we're going to start buying back even more shares. this has been a very tough name to short. i tried it once or twice before. >> at your peril, right. >> at your peril. and spilled the coffee in my lap, i've got to say. >> it is a managed story. if you look 12 quarters, three years, they beat by a penny or matched the earnings. it is what citibank used to do. it is not bad or good but there is not going to be any surprises here. they know what their guiding on the street and it wi
CNBC
Jan 8, 2016 5:30pm EST
what to expect in the week ahead. >> melissa, after the most volatile week in china market, investors are focusing on data that could move markets even more. starting with inflation prices tonight, marking the 45th consecutive decline in prices. deflationary fears are rising as manufacturing activity continues to decline. keep in mind cpi prices are expected to rise by 1.6% year-over-year. this weekend we'll get a look at china loan growth. any signs of life from long-term corporate loans that has been weak for the last few months would indicate renewed private sector confidence in the economy. and lastly, trade data on tuesday, melissa, this will be crucial. investors are expecting a decline in exports but the question is by how much. if it is a big drop, that may encourage the central bank to continue devaluing the yuan even more. >> thank you, seema. >>> so the chart master is take a look at a name that could suffer from more volatile. >> we're looking at caterpillar. it is tied to oil, to everything that is bad, if you will and it looks like there is a final down leg to go. to cru
CNBC
Oct 6, 2012 6:00am EDT
of the factories in china where they make the iphone 5, the stock took a leg down. i mean maybe half a percent, three quarters of a percent. it was weak all day. >> right. >> but here's the thing. i think it feels like the momentum has kind of come out of the thing right here. we had this buildup into the iphone 5 release, and then obviously the units were a little disappointing. so here you have the thing on a technical basis, 650 is this huge, huge level here. it was prior resistance. and so, you know, remember here, this thing makes up a disproportionate amount of the major indices here, and it's making up a lot of performance for a lot of portfolio managers or individual investors. so at the end of the day, this thing has worked really well. it's up 60%. so you have a lot of people just taking some profits here into what is likely going to be a disappointing fiscal q4. >> mike khouw, you know, the apple bulls out there -- and there are plenty of them -- will point to, of course, the sellout demand for iphone 5s, but at the same time, they'll also point to the historical pattern t
CNBC
Oct 4, 2015 6:00am EDT
how. >>> plus -- because something just happened in china that put casino investors hitting the jackpot and we'll tell you what that is when "options action" returns. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. suffering from ringing in their ears, there's no such thing as quiet time. but you can quiet the ringing with lipo-flavonoid, the number-one doctor-recommended brand. relieve the ringing with lipo-flavonoid. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool.
CNBC
Jan 24, 2010 6:00am EST
. >> they had a huge ramp about those comments about google leaving china. that would have been a great opportunity to do that. i think you want to be a bit careful here. the dynamics in china are different than the dynamics here. one of the disappointing things in google's earnings, at least their outlook or earnings was some of the international growth was weaker than expected. that may be because of bydu and china are taking shares. >> all right. got a question, send us an e-mail, we'll answer it in our options action 101. we've got a special edition tonight. we'll update dan's apple trade heading into earnings. and scott, we'll give you his next buy right for next week. go to our website. that is right after the show. traders at td ameritrade are a demanding bunch. in fact, they want it all. you know, when i place an order, don't just fill it. get me the best available price. a better price means more money in my pocket. that's why td ameritrade's proprietary order routing technology consistently seeks the best available price. i've got quotes, charts, watch lists. just the wa
CNBC
Sep 20, 2015 6:00am EDT
wassing if to be coming in china which is an area where we know there's going to be problems. we were talking about 5,000 orders. with the nippon 747 cancellation, boeing has no net new orders for 2015. they're basically telling us. we don't need to wait and find out to figure out whether there is any growth there. they're telling us there isn't. >> in term of performance of individual securities here, more of it's driven by a sector issues than it is. so it's not just industrials. of course, it's materials. it's energy. it's anything that's signalable. you take a decision post-fed whether you want to favor growth or value, whether you want to go cyclical or defensive, industrials, energy and materials, i put them all in the same bucket. these are places to be avoid, to sell it if you have it, to short it if you don't. >> if the fed hiked interest rates and was dovish, would your views on industrials be different? >> no, and the reason it wouldn't be different is because, again, i think the -- look, the fed is acting on the same cues we are. we're all looking at the same set of i
CNBC
Sep 18, 2015 5:30pm EDT
airlines is coming from china where there are problem. 5,000 orders for aircraft and with the nippon airways cargo cancelation, boeing has no net new orders for 2015. so they are basically telling us what is going on. we don't need to wait and find out and look at the names to see if there is any growth. there isn't. >> the boeing setup is great and you'll look at the chart. and in terms of individual securities here, more is driven by a sector issue than it is -- it is not just industrials. it is materials, energy, an anything that is cyclical. you make a decision post fed whether you want to favor growth or value, or go cyclical or defensive. and industrials energy and materials, i put them all in the same bucket. these are places to be away from, and so sell it if you have it and shore it if you don't. >> and the fed was dovish. would your views on industrials be different? >> no it wouldn't. and the reason is i think the cues -- the fed is acting on the same cues we are. they are looking at the same information, digesting it the same way we are digesting it. and if i was looking
CNBC
Apr 18, 2015 6:00am EDT
send us down 5%. it could be the start of it, the volatility in china and maybe some weakness in europe but at some point i think investors are once again going to focus on the economic data here. >> you have two sets, two forces doing battle with each other. for one thing you still have massive buybacks going on at the corporate level. we still are in a low rate environment. that supports stocks. but we have elevated valuations. that pressures them and then essentially what will happen at some point investors get scared just enough by one of the bad bits of data coming out. obviously, we have some concern what's going on in china and europe. if we see bad economic data in the united states, that will be where it actually rolls over. >> it felt bad, carter but technically was it that bad? >> market has a fatigue to it. we just have stalled as dan is talking about. it's one month. a third. then a fourth. we have had a breath issue for the better part of a year. it remains a moment of asymmetry. can you eke out gains? sure. you trade at great risk with a drawdown. >> so you think a
CNBC
Jan 10, 2015 6:00am EST
, it's not just the dollar that's been an issue. i mean, china has been an issue for this company which does so much business in china. >> well, i think that's definitely true. i mean, that's certainly a cause for concern. and it's priced in when you look at it fundamentally. this a company trading at less than 14 times next 12 months earning. and it has been a cash generating powerhouse for some time. when you take a look at the share price, about 30% is net cash. itis got over $30 billion of net cash. on a fundamental basis, basically what the market is telling us is there must be some other trouble. you would never be trading at this cheap level otherwise. so i'm taking a look at this and clearly the technicals are basically telling us, price is truth. i would normally be a buyer but i can't reach out and try to catch a falling knife on this one. >> what's the trade? >> very simply, i'm looking to february to cash that earnings result. the february 67.5 put spread, you can pay $1.25 for that. two bucks against it. part of that is implied volatility is higher than normal. and re
CNBC
Jan 16, 2016 6:00am EST
. 13.3% last quarter came from china. we could get a really great number from them in that area. honestly upside risk. >> what's the trade there? >> very simply looking at february. you can look at 55, stock around 57, might be a little less now when lou at this on monday. you can spend $1 for that $5 spread. really you're going to get the opportunity to number one, play earnings next week. number two, if we continue to see weakness. dan alluded to the fact we could see a lift in the market but then see it lower. >> managed there perfectly. last 12 quarters matched or beat. literally there's not going to be a big surprise. the question is how does the stock reachblgt the stock is a winner. the question is this is where there's risk in the market, these high flyers that haven't had an adjustment to their multiple. the put-back is minor just as disney and nike got worse. >> you haven't mentioned this. this is a mania stock up 50% last year. when they reported last quarter late october they talked about weak margins in china and the stock was down a few percent and then we bought i
CNBC
Jul 6, 2012 5:00pm EDT
, skip, and a jump away, one athlete is unlikely to make china's squad. after missing the first two, the man blasted through the remaining hurdles chest first. he still managed to take home an impressive sixth place finish and that is what we call optional viewing. >> time now for the final call. scott? >> i'm not as protective as some people. >> don't be complacent. recession fears, once everyone knows about them, lit be too late. >> i like the dba put buy but selling a longer dated. >> and mike? >> bear protection. you got to buy some here. >> our time has expired. stay tuned for "money in motion." [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by t
CNBC
Apr 9, 2010 5:30pm EDT
people don't recognize. the other thing, of course, is what's going on in china. 34% growth in their revenues outside the united states. that's basically the biggest area of growth. and if you cut china out of the picture, you obviously have to be a little bit concerned about that fundamental story. the thing is that obviously because there is so much risk in this you can't really short the stock. that's one quick point i would make. if you want to play it, the only way to do it is with options. so what i'm taking a look at doing here is actually looking at the june 5.60, 5.10 put spread. i'm going to spend $15 to put this on and the way i'm going to do that i'm going o'spend $21 to buy the june 560 puts. i'm going to collect 6 selling the 510 puts against it as a bearish play as a way to mitigate the risk. net net i'm going to spend $15 on this thing. that works out to 1500 bucks per each spread on this thing. so this is going to be kind of an expensive spread. but let's pay attention. this is a $560 stock, folks, so this is really on a relative basis not that much. this is the time
CNBC
Jan 9, 2016 6:00am EST
continue devaluing the wuan even more. >> what are you watching? >> caterpillar tied to china, tied to oil and everything that's sort of bad if you will and looks like there's a final downleg to go. so crude oil, caterpillar. crude oil, caterpillar. so we have obviously this huge mean reversion back to the range that crude oil is basically lived in its entire career, 10 to 40 and does cat have to get back in this range down to 40? no. but it closed today at 63 and we're thinking at least closer to its long-term trend line. so take a look at the comparative chart, crude oil. crude oil, cat, cat, we're going to play for some more of this, we're going to play for cat coming back down in towards the range. so here's the daily setup. here's what we started with a head and shoulders top, a neckline, it broke hard. here's the trend line, we put our head and shoulders top back in. the neckline. and now we're hovering ominously having failed at this trend right at these prior lows. here's the absolute chart so right here we close within pennies of the prior low. we have a nice established setup
CNBC
Oct 24, 2015 6:00am EDT
way i would short stocks here. with china coming out and saying whatever it takes an the ecb saying whatever it takes. but i think you can make a bet to the down side usinghe q's and i was looking at the december 12, 106 put spread. so you are spending 1% of the index to make a bearish bet that could pay you two to one if the mark pulls back. and we've been long to make up the indices. so if you see a pull back, this is an in expensive way to make that bet. >> and i think mike prefaced it well. with the momentum we've seen well, do you want to make short bets all over the place. think about a trade like this in the qqq, if you are not ready and think there is potential for them to continue to go. but you want to use hedged tactically at inflection points and you may want to wait until apple reports and you may get a better entry. i'm just saying. >> and let's say apple is bad. then that puts the top in. >> well that is one of the reasons why you would put on a hedge like this. because for most people -- look, it is one of the largely held stocks. and a huge component in the index. i
CNBC
Jan 15, 2016 5:30pm EST
quarter came from china and we could get a great number from them, in that area. but the upside risk is fairly limited. >> so what is the trade there. >> i'm looking out to february. look at the 5550 put spread. it might be less now when you look at this on monday. could you spend $1 for the $5 spread. it goes out to february expiration. so you will get the opportunity to number one, play earnings, which is coming next week. and number two, if we continue to see weakness, dan alluded to the fact to a lift in the marketba it could proceed -- but it could proceed lower -- >> and that manages the earnings perfectly. the last quarters they matched or beat by a penny. there is not going to be a big -- the question is how does the stock react? it is obviously a winner. but this is where there is risk in the market, the high fliers that hasn't had adjustment to the multiple. to the pullback is minor. it could get worse just as disney and nike have gotten worse. >> you have not mentioned this. this was a mania stock. up 50% last year. and when they reported in last year they talked about wea
CNBC
Oct 7, 2016 5:30pm EDT
some construction spending seemingly in china has stabilized somewhat for caterpillar. >> right. in fact, carter, you're taking a look at caterpillar here? >> yeah. obviously, that's a big industrial name. it's tied to things that are sort of global, as we know. and materials-based, energies-based. the best performing dow stock in sometimes you can say too much of a good thing. up 35% total return year-to-date. if you look at the correlation, this stock versus its sector, versus materials in general, resources. but copper in particular. they have a relationship. and the relationship is quite divergent. so two lines, you can see them quite clearly. cat is here in blue and then we've got copper. of this is a two-year chart. take a look at the same relationship going back three or four years. this is the same problem. at least one could say, maybe it's not a problem. it says that cat suggests that copper is bottoming. but that's not what the long-term chart suggests. so here we have now a ten-year chart. and what's so important is this huge ricochet. and if you look at what bk was doin
CNBC
Jun 2, 2012 6:00am EDT
the trade in freeport mcmoran. when china coming in weak with a doomsday tone that the markets took over all mcmoran wouldn't catch this cube short covering, not a rally but in a down take this is outperformance by fcx. it did raise eyebrows. >> we see this type of economic data and people think there's some currency debase as a result of another round of qe. we see this between commodity prices that are hinged to global macro economic concerns like oil and people concerned about the currency issue which is why they rush into things like gold. when you look at something like copper which has been hit hard for a long time it doesn't surprise me that there might be confusion there. what do we do? copper might be a safe haven because it's a commodity but it could be hit because of macro concerns. i think this is a little bit of short covering and people are still trying to figure out how to deal with it. >> other bright spots the miners, up by 6.5%. gold of course had a nice bounce. the question here is do you buy this bounce. is gold a safe haven? let's see if we can find the answer.
CNBC
Nov 16, 2014 6:00am EST
increased deliveries to places with high populations like china and india. >> you don't agree with carter? this is a bullish case. >> we saw stocks rally because of the secular tail winds for transports. take a look at valuations. they are about average. that tells us we've seen the companies growing. that said, i'm still inclined to make a bearish bet. almost out of gas on this -- >> gave us 20 positive reasons anyway. >> do you mind? what i'm going to do, and i'll do it because we've had such a run u because options prices are setting up favorably. the january 160, 150 put spread, spend $2.50 for that, one quarter distance between the strikes. that's math we like. risking a very small amount of the current price of the transports to get into the bearish bet. it actually is really good way, i think, to hit the pause bet ton even if you stay long the stocks, which most will. >> those positive things, all of which are true, that's the principle of markets, discounting them. they are well-known. markets look forward. can it out perform again in 2015? odds are low. >> so priced in. >>
CNBC
Apr 28, 2012 6:00am EDT
results and see that china sales are not good. could cracks emerge? all it takes is a notch in the faith everybody has for the multiple. if you do see any disappointing result, that is a situation that can compound itself not to mention that people have a tendance to want to sell stocks that had a great run like this one. >> you are bearish along with carter. let's break open the playbook. mike is using a put spread. it may sound complicated and we used this many times before. let's review it one more time. this is a bear strategy where you buy one put and decrease the cost. you sell a lower with the same expiration. you want it to fall to the put you sold where you make the most money. walk us through the trade. >> i am looking at the june put spread. $38 for the 750s and sell the 700s for a net debit of $18, 36 of the difference between the strikes. you will notice oftentimes we try to focus on minimizing the price you pay. even though this is a $50 spread, we are talking about a $760 stock. this is a tight spread to where the stock is trading. the idea here is if the stock pulls
CNBC
Jan 17, 2015 6:00am EST
%. this after ceo elon musk has concerns about shares in china and profitability. that made him a friend of dan nathan and that's why. >> on "options action," it's the rule of the road. risk less and you can make more and that's what dan did with his bearish bet on tesla. dan thought the stock was going down. >> the 50 day moving average is about to cross below the 200 day moving average. that's what some technicians call the death cross. >> no! >> but just going short, that could be even scarier. after all any stock can technically rise forever meaning unlimited losses. so to define his risk dan instead bought the february 210 point for $11. but hold had on paying 11 bucks just to bet against tesla -- so to cut costs dan then sold not one but two february 180 strike puts for a total of $7. now between the $11 he's paying and the $7 he's taking in dan is paying $4 for the trade. that means that he only needs tesla shares to fall $4 below the higher strike put to make money or below 206 by february expiration. but we have a problem. you see because dan sold more puts than he bought
CNBC
Oct 19, 2012 5:00pm EDT
me. i feel like i'm healthy. i feel like i contribute more than a team will allow me to. >> is china the next frontier for nba stars. tracy mcgrady shows how big name players can extend their career and check in, too. that and more on cnbc sports biz tonight. >>> you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. use the news links breaking stories with possible breakout stocks, options with potential opportunity, futures and forex with in-depth analysis. it's an all-you-can-eat buffet for all things trading. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. it doesn't just deliver news. it's making news. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. >>> three stories that can make you money next week. first up doll
CNBC
Jan 21, 2017 6:00am EST
from multiple sides. probably a wage increase but also higher goods costs from china. so as an investor, that's what you're looking for. to me it is unclear whether that will be a positive or negative. i can make the argument for both sides. and all day long i wanted to see if could i get an edge on it. i didn't get anything out of the speech. maybe out of executive orders that come out of the 24 hours. >> it was interesting, the ceo of nissan was quoted saying, we're businessmen, very practical. if the u.s. president will say, hire people in the united states. that's what we're going to do. we're in business to make money. so this pragmatism that's hitting the sweep. this is the new reality of things. >> and i think once again, he is talking to his base. he is talking to middle america. this is what resonates, other than people who live on coastal cities. he is talking on middle america. this is what resonates with that population. i think where the rubber meets the road. when you look at the emerging market. i think his rhetoric will be a lot worse than the reality of it all.
CNBC
Aug 7, 2016 6:00am EDT
fiscal q4 in the end of unijune. it was a good report. in the biggest growth market in china put up really big numbers. it's down 10% on the year here. listen, i've been very skeptical about the market rally. i'm not trying to buy breakouts here. nike could set up as an interesting trade over the next month and half. >> the stock is trading cheap to its group. they're going to get some new management. light going into it. getting out of the equipment business which is a good move. representing only 5% of their total revenue. the opportunity to buy a stock blow historical average and growing. bottom line and at a discount to the group, i think it's a good name. >> you sort of inferred this when you started talking. it's not just this. we've seen in in disney. starbucks. a lot of the strength of the market has value coming up and even the old sort of names like microsoft are value. meaning the growth names, the starbuc starbucks, the nikes, so forth have stalled. these are ones that would start toll participate. >> the value names rnlt really values anymore. this thing is trading four
CNBC
Nov 3, 2012 6:00am EDT
times forward earnings, the ones probably more resilient to the china story and did get good chinese pmi data. you look at those and say, okay, you'll see people rotate into the things that aren't working because they've become so cheap. >> scott, do you buy into that strategy? >> i don't. i think business to business is still problematic. if somebody is selling to consumers, i think they're likely to do better. starbucks did well. still ten bucks from their 52-week high but the stock seems to have gotten footing and even names that have done worse, r.i.m. has found its footing and i think that consumers are actually the place to be right now. we've seen young do well. i don't like commons, i don't like a name like caterpillar because they have to do business largely overseas and that's not the place to be right now. >> so, dan, let's go to you. you're looking at facebook as one of the names that might get a second look at this point. why now? >> yeah, well, i think that's a good point you made about some of those other names. a couple others, nike had a good week after being down an
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