employment, in housing. so things are kind of soft out there discounting the whole mess in washington. >> so for the gdp number, nariman, what are you looking for? >> we're saying 1.8 for the third quarter. and we think it might get softer for the fourth quarter. so the second half of the year we're barely over 1.5%. so, again, not good in terms of -- >> but we have a bunch of excuses for that. >> sure, of course. but still, it's not good. >> and what's the real back -- factoring all that stuff out or can we not factor it out on? maybe it did affect us. >> it's what i called inside the beltway versus outside the beltway. outside the beltway, the economy is growing 2.5%. but when you factor in the inside the beltway mess, 1.5%, basically. >> nariman, what do you think for the first quarter of next year? is this a continued slump or do you think there's a quick rebound? >> i think we will see a rebound for two reasons. one, there's a bit of a bounceback and we'll start to see that underlying strength. we could easily see between 2.5% and 3% in the first quarter. >> all right.
definitely building up some momentum. but that is a little bit of a stretch. >> so nariman, you're not in the camp with the people saying, we're now experiencing the height of the economic recovery, it's going to trail down from there? >> i think so. housing still hasn't recovered. it's still bumping along the bottom. once that recovery kicks in, which we think will probably be towards tend of this career, you can start to see more strength there. no, our view is at least through next year, we'll see this recovery gain something steam before it sort of tails off a little bit. >> nariman, before i get back to rob, the consumer -- and i've now learned that when you talk to the consumer, you say she. that's what terry -- all these guys that sell into the biggest retailers call it she. and i knew this rawle long base odd my household. >> consumers -- >> no, because we don't consume anything, beer and doe in us nuts. but women buy everything, at least around where i am. but the consumer, is she back, nariman? >> she is back in the sense that growth and consumer spending in the first qua
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