leveling off, ben carson 13, carly fiorina 13, marco rubio, 9. >> we're here with michael steele, former rnc chairman and msnbc political analyst, also back with us, howard dean. so alex, when your one-word association? >> so good. >> leads with idiot, how far can you go? >> i just want the trucker hat that says idiot, dumb, buffoon, clown, whatever else. that needs to be the sort of answer to the make america great again trucker hat. what's weird is that there's overlap between people who say they want him to be the nominee and people who say he's a buffoon, clown, idiot. what's maybe terrifying about that poll is if you tally up ben carson support, carly fiorina support and donald trump support, that's 49% of the republican electorate. and you look at those numbers. you know, you have establishment candidates polling in the single digits. and no matter how badly the donor class and the establishment want marco rubio or john kasich or jeb bush to be their nominee, it is hard to imagine how they are going to draw double-digit strength in a field like that. >> the republican estab

. carson, carly fiorina at 13. if you are wondering who the group supports it's trump by a mile. the people who believe obama is a muslim like trump. we are back. moments ago trump took on his rivals as only he can. let's listen to him here. >> and they asked bush what do you think of rubio? rubio comes out and talking about bush. what do you think of rubio? he is my dear friend. he is so wonderful. i love him so much. then there is rubio who is running against bush and he probably shouldn't be from a loyalty standpoint. the veterans know what i mean about loyalty. so they ask rubio what do you think of bush? he is my dear friend. they hate each other. trust me, i know. they hate so much. they hate more than anybody in this room hates their neighbor. but it's political [ bleep ]. do you understand? >> that word he used is bs. it is mesmerizing if you don't get into the fine point. it seemed like he was saying the kind of thing that pat buchanan said about world war ii. let the russians fight the nazis and see who wins. he is saying like assad who we don't like fight isis who we fear

something. >> what did i say? i said those offensive muslim remarks were going to give carson a lift and they did. it's beyond gross but that will go down. you know, it's over for trump. seriously, how many times can people say this? >> they probably cycled the same comment after mccain made comments. >> we have a new national pole. showing new top tier solid identifying donald trump still on top with 23% and tied for second are ben carson and carly fiorina with 13 points each. marco rubio fourth. it is the third consecutive pole in which rubio has passed jeb bush that's dropped six points since july and carson the most favorable while donald trump is the least. donald trump used some colorful language when talking about two of his opponents. >> so they asked rubio what do you think of -- he's my dear friend. wonderful. they hate each other. trust me, i know. they hate so much, they hate more than anybody in this room hates their neighbor but it's political bull [ bleep ]. it's true. it's true. >> okay. he's ranting it up a little bit. as much as anybody hates their neighbor. i didn'

list at 25%. but senator marco rubio is on the rise. coming in at second at 16%. and ben carson is third at 15%. >>> well on a day that we could all use a little escape here's your daily dose of cuteness. don't you just want to pick that little thing up and hold it? all right so this video is of a two-legged kitten saved by the tiny kitten society. a canadian rescue group. it shows the little guy trying to get out his brand-new wheelchair that was reportedly donated by handycappedpets.com in canada. >>> directly ahead we pull back the curtain on what's really going on with america's debate on guns and freedom. when a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast. thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. and with greater financial clarity and a relationship built for the unexpected, she could control her cash flow, and keep the ranch running. chase for business. so you can own it. chase for

is, we were just showing the national poling numbers here 23% with a 10 point lead over ben carson. in new hampshire the cnn pole shows you're at 26% with a 10 point lead. in iowa the most resent shows that you're 27% with a six point lead over ben carson. >> and leading big with the evangelicals. >> and florida 27 point lead over marco rubio. >> you've been harsh with marco lately. you called him a light weight and say he's lazy. why do you say that? >> he doesn't show up for votes. he's got the worst voting record in the united states senate and you can't do that. other people are campaigning right now and they have much better records and you can't blame something on a campaign and again, you know, i was getting along very nicely with him and then about two weeks ago all of the sudden he starts hitting me, verbally, and i took it to him but i had no choice. again, it was so many people, beautiful, everything was great. the nice part is every single person so far that's hit me is either out of the campaign or has dropped so severely. i don't know what's going on but it's, i never

second amendment and guns. this is what ben carson and donald trump had to say from the republican perspective. >> obviously there are going to be those that are calling for gun control but, you know, that happens every time we have one of these incidents. obviously that's not the issue. the issue is the mentality of these people. >> donald, is it fair to say then your opinion is some people are going to slip through the tracks and there's not much you can do about it? >> well, you know, it is not politically correct to say that, but you're going to have difficulty and that will be for the next million years, you're going to have difficulty. people will slip through the cracks. even if you did great mental health programs, people will slip through the cracks. i'm sure it is going to be found this guy was probably, you know, they seem to be loners, they have all sorts of difficulties. they call people and nobody wants to go out with them. you know, it is the same old story. >> senator, what do you say to the candidates who say you can't do anything about this and it is a mental heal

, johnny carson who was very nonpolitical, never talked politics. he came out and said write your congressman after bobby was killed in los angeles. i did it. and there was tremendous emotion. imagine the emotion of a guy running for president who we all loved almost getting there and getting shot to death. and that was about the height of emotion train ride down to washington. it faded. and the president said become as nutty as the gun nuts. he said you have to think about this again and again. you have to vote against members of congress again and again and again. if you see them voting wrong or not voting to take action on gun safety. that is a hell of a mission to change people's emotions so they sustain and maintain the same level of heat that the gun people do. >> chris, you are talking about an era within a five-year span. we actually in that era passed federal gun control laws. as you recall ronald wilson reagan who was the governor of california who was alarmed by notion of open carrying by black panthers who supported the banning of open carry firearms. and the irony, of

that his choice for president this year is probably ben carson. apparently, these guys are still doing the event together tomorrow, but presumably it will be awkward. so it's tough times right now for rand paul. even if he were not trying to run for president and senate at the same time, he would be having a hard time with either of those races. at this point as we reported earlier this week, rand paul is on the bubble to potentially not even make it onto the main stage for the next republican debate later this month in colorado. but if you're looking for signs today about whether or not rand paul's going to be the next candidate out, whether he's going to be the next one to quit the presidency, there was one very specific smoke signal on that issue today. and granted, it's from people who are absolutely not allies of rand paul. it's from the leading democratic super pac american bridge. i think of american bridge as kind of an opposition research organization. but they're a super pac. they're very much in support of hillary clinton's presidential candidacy. so take it awith a gr

fiorina, ben carson and donald trump? >> sure. i think those are the outsiders, quote, ub quote, and we're still scratching that itch, at least on the republican side. i happen to believe once things calm down and republican voters take a good, hard look at who's left, they're going to choose a candidate that fits the bill, that can accept to believe moderates and i think there are many of them. >> we do see them running right now. you see john kasich and mark rubio fighting it out because there is this establishment fight going on at the same time where the outsiders are getting most of the attention. and so we are going to see this establishment coalesce and in the end republicans will do what they always do, they will pick an establishment candidate. >> not so sure about this time. we have to wrap it up here, but i think it's fascinating. we are still talking about new candidates at this stage. stay with us. >>> up next, russian air strikes continue to attack rebel forces fighting in syria. nbc news foreign correspondent aden is here to explain what's happening there. and later on

catching fire, not only trump but carson, fiorina. what does that say, jonathan? >> people are mad as hell at the political establishment. the problem is the outsiders are also, especially trump, being powered by their entertainment value and if he, you know, gets too nice and cuddly he'll get boring and lose whatever it is that people think is funny and amusing and fun about him, which is his insult humor. he's in a little bit of a find but gaffe proof for the 20%, 15%, whatever it is, they will never abandon him as long as he's in the race. he could say anything. he could hang his behind out macy's window and they'd still vote for him because he's their guy, so he's now at a point where he does have a solid base. the question is how big it is. >> at the same time, though, jeb bush is down in single digits, the polling is alarming. look at the polling. donald trump 23%. marco rubio 9%, jeb bush 8%. >> jeb bush is the republican establishment, that's why he's doing so poorly. it's not just entertainment value. donald trump stands for something, he touched that nerve from the beginning

is the front-runner, followed by carson and fiorina. of course we're left with one essential breathless question -- what does it all mean? since i don't know i'm hoping my panel does. the former south carolina gop chair joins us. direct he were of the mullenburg college and professor of political science and editor at large for "the new york times." chris, as a pollster at the table based on these numbers, who will be the next president of the united states? >> i knew this was coming. it's tough question. i'm going to be the political scientist and kind of a little bit of a weasel here. a lot has to be shaken out but i think what you see is that early signs or continued signs of some erosion for donald trump. those new hampshire numbers i think are very troubling for him. it puts him in a spot in a state like new hampshire that i think will be key to get a bigger picture of where the u.s. is headed. gives him some challenges and i think he's got troubles. >> who's gaining? >> it's fiorina. if there's one piece of numbers -- or piece of these numbers that strikes out, it is he

trump at 25%. fiorina second and jeb bush is third. in iowa, his closest competition is ben carson and fiorina is third with 8%. >>> bernie sanders maintains his lead by 13 points over hillary clinton. joe biden jumped to 18% now. in iowa, clinton's lead dipped by five points. bernie sanders is in second place. biden with 22%. joining me now, fred yang, a democrat democratic pollster. does this poll represent the definite ceiling for donald trump? does he have nowhere further to go up and only down? >> i'm not sure, alex, any of us really know what donald trump's ceiling is. i do think that these polls, the national poll we released earlier this week for nbc news/"wall street journal," they do suggest there's some leveling off of the trump dynamic. look, he had a really good summer. in some respects it was hard to sustain that. i think he's basically spent zero money on tv. a lot of this is just free press. and fiorina did well in the second debate. ben carson continues to hang around there. so i think what we're seeing is for donald trump is he's not the only story of the day. the

, donald trump. but his lead is down five points from the last time we tested a month ago. ben carson in second is down three. the movers here in iowa, carly fiorina, she jumped three points into third place, jeb bush in the high single digits there. let's look at the rest of this second tier. cruz, rubio, jindal, huckabee paul and christie. all of them bunched up between four and six. bobby jindal may feel good about this. above 5% somewhere. that's good news for him. if your candidate isn't on here, 245i didn't -- they didn't top 3% in this field. now let's look at the new hampshire primary here. donald trump still in the lead but look at this, his number has dropped a whopping seven points. carly fiorina first time she's in second place in any of the early states, she jumped a double digit. she's up to 16%. jeb bush, rubio, carson also in double digits. jeb bush may be benefitting from a multimillion dollar ad campaign he has in new hampshire. let's look at the second tier in new hampshire, christie, kasich, cruz and paul. all between 5% and 7%. the news here. look at this, john ka

. >> donald trump's lead is shrinking. ben carson has cut trump's lead. 24% to 19%. carly fiorina in third at 8%. jeb bush at 7% and ted cruz, marco rubio and bobby tied at 6%. when people's first and second choices are combined, trump and carson are tied. trump has dropped nearly seven points in new hampshire. jeb bush in third place with rubio and carson tied in fourth. let's go back to the previous pole before what donald said this weekend. mark, the screaming headline here in new hampshire where you are right now is carly fiorina who has went to event after event in new hampshire is showing signs she may be the one to take on donald trump there. let's talk next about chris christie at 7%. he's showing a sign of life as well. >> i think there's seven people at this point who could win the primary. we've never had a situation like that. let's remember there's lots of engagement to come. with the exception of donald trump, no other republican has gone after carly fiorina. we still need to see what she's like campaigning under more pressure than she's been under. you got people like rubio,

me would be dr. carson hanging in there because he has that spiritual draw, he's a nice fellow. and cruz coming on strong. without trump, cruz would take his place because he's been drafting him ever since. what do you think? can you survive without trump? >> i think we'll manage to do that. i don't think -- i don't think trump will be on the ballot in iowa. >> not in iowa? >> no he'll be out of the race by then. >> when is this going to happen? give me a date. >> you know, some time between now and january 10th. >> what will make him get out? >> his numbers are going to go down. >> he won't be in the top three? >> no. >> who will be ahead of him? you've got to make your predictions here. >> this is not the comeback kid. >> who will be ahead of him? >> carson. >> i said that, yeah. >> i think cruz. you have to go state by state. >> i'm saying carson and cruz end up being the race. >> no. you've got rubio. >> in iowa? >> not necessarily iowa. >> you can't talk about the presidential election as it really is between now and iowa. >> iowa never matters. come on, chris. you can win iowa

bevin days after bevin says he supports ben carson in the presidential race. >> it's immaterial to me. it's also something i understand. i mean, there are going to be people i know well who may not score me for the presidency. >> senator rand paul talking to local cbs affiliate wkyt. there is a lot going on right now, particularly today, that i think is fascinating on the democratic side, butten the orepublican side of the race, the continuing questions continue to be about the bottom of the field who is going to quit next. how the field is going to win down. rand paul is teetering on the brink of perceived viability. headlines about his campaign right now look like this. a political liar, palm says huls not quitting. the rand paul campaign insists he's not folding tent t. hometown paper, when they covered his sad trombone 50 person rally, rand paul had to patiently explain to the local reporters from that paper, no, no, he was not planning on dropping out of the race. there is a real question, know, as to whether or not he's going to make the main debate stage at the next republic

, donald trump dropped five points in the last month and still leads the field at 24% with ben carson five points behind him at 19%. yesterday on "meet the press" for reasons known only to him, donald trump announced to the world that he is not a masochist. >> i'm not a masochist. >> of course, that's not all he said. >> i'm not a masochist, and if i was dropping in the polls where i saw that i wasn't going to win, why would i continue? and it's funny, maybe it's, like, not like me because it's the power of positive thinking and i'm a very positive person, i'm a positive thinker, but the truth is, i'm a realist. if i were doing poorly, if i saw myself going down, if you would stop calling me because you no longer have any interest in trump because he has no chance, i'd go back to my business. i have no problem with that. >> that was not the first time donald trump said he would drop out if he was losing, but chuck todd smartly double underlined the point for anyone who hasn't noticed that trump has been saying this all along. here's trump back in june on "morning joe." >> i want to do

equals ben carson. there you go. larry david plus sticking your finger in electrical socket, bern sanders. >>> and gene robinson still with us. good to have you all on board this morning. >> it's great to have everybody here. let me start with a really quick question. al hunt wrote a column talking about the republican party and the poor state that the washington republican party is in right now. how bad are things for washington republicans? >> it's unprecedentedly bad. you have more than half of the republican electorate manifesting itself in primaries in open rebellion of the political establishment of the party. the leadership of congress. reviled not just by the american people but by republican voters in particular and we're at really an unprecedented moment in -- >> why is there such a divide between state and local republicans who are popular and doing great across the country, and washington republicans who are reviled? >> republicans governing states have actual responsibility. and they fulfill that responsibility on a daily basis. >> they pass a budget. >> they have to

senator marco rubio from florida. he's tied for third with carly fiorina and ben carson with the new-found popularity, you get a big target on your back. his rivals are hitting him on his experience and poor attendance of the senate. >> the majority of the job is not walking on the senate floor and lifting your finger on a noncontroversial issues. the majority is the committee and service work. when you run for president, there are times you're not going to be here. we have cancelled events and traveled across the country to make votes, especially if we can make a difference -- >> you don't think you're putting your ambitions before -- >> my ambitions aren't for me. they're for the country and florida. that's why i'm running for president. i believe we can fix some of these issues i've been so frustrated we been unable to address during my time in the senate. there's been headline after headline about marco rubio's moment. he's now tied third nationally. he does have these issues that people bring up. he's on the way up apparently. is it going to be easier or harder for your cand

ten times or ben carson anne ted cruz. the numbers are just through the summer, frances. they have spent more since then and raises a fundamental question and i'm reporting on and talking to republican sources. will he ever step up and spend the tens of millions of dollars of his own money as other expenses pile up? beyond free media when it's a delegate hunt, it an expensive. some folks questioning whether he'll do this. >> fascinating read. a former aide of ronald reagan said the media could have cost him $100 million easily and only spent 2 of those. ari, definitely fascinating on the msnbc.com article. thank you. >> thank you. >>> meantime, donald trump is taking a shot at marco rubio and infamous reach for the water episode. remember back in 2013? that awkward moment when rubio delivered the republican response and during that delivery, he was so thirsty and time after time reaching for his water. taking a big old gulp. donald trump delivered a care package of trump natural ice spring water and said since you're always sweating, we thought you could use some water. here's how

candidates. cruz, carson outspending him. hillary clinton outspending him almost 10-1, according to what his advisers told "the times." this undercuts one of the key assumptions of the trump campaign to date, that he will spend his way to victory and he'll never have to worry about something other candidates do, that he could be bought or pressured by donors. i spoke to gop sources who say this has worked so far. some estimate he's got $100 million of free media campaign value. but they say it as a time limit. with the romney campaign, they spent $50 million on staff and 100 million on internet operations. so if donald trump is serious, these going to have to tap into that money. i spoke with ronald reagan's former political director who worked for perot. he accounted how perot was rich but cheap and told me this. my sense is that perot, like trump, knew absolutely nothing about government or how it functions. i think trump ns the modern media. whether he's going to spend his own money or not, we will wait and see. and kate, a little update to this, just in the last hour, the trump campa

. >> and very quickly, how often do you hear him being the second or third choice at, say, a carson event, a fiorina event, a bush event, things like that? >> to be honest with you, it does come up now and then. i've heard voices not just in new hampshire, but elsewhere, that like the idea of a kasich/rubio ticket. so i think it's on the minds of some people. people here are excited to see him regardless. >> kyle any koenig, in new hampshire, thank you very much. >>> let's turn now to the latest from afghanistan, including the hospital bombing that took place there. doctors without borders has called it a war crime and is demanding an independent investigation. not one led by the united states, but one led by the u.n. in the shifting u.s. account of what occurred this weekend, when a u.s. air strike hit a hospital killing 22 civilians in afghanistan. what is not done much to clear up many of the questions so far. why did the air strike come in? who asked for it? was it a u.s. ask? was it an afghan ask? appearing today for the senate armed forces committee, the top commander of force

scorn upon the father of the gunman demanding he apologize for the shooting and ben carson accused liberals of using the shooting to vance a political agenda writing i never saw a body with more but the holes that was more devastating than taking the right to arm ourselves away. it gets worse. this morning he was asked about his religion as the oregon shooter is alleged to have done with some of his victims. >>> not only would i probably not cooperate with them, i would not just stand there and let him shoot me. i would say hey, guys, everybody attack him. he may shoot me but he can't get us all. >> as ben carson should know, people didn't simply "cooperate" with the shooter. a brave army veteran named chris mintz tried to stop him. he sustained multiple gunshot wounds but survived. the broader implication in carson's words is that the people who were murdered that day were somehow complicit in their own massacre. cooperating which is i must say, a truly odious thing to say. and while ben carson imagines that he somehow would have been able to stop the shooter had he been there, th

not be slipping so much and a whole lot more and ben carson's crazy comment. >> what was that? >> he accused the people gunned down and killed of being too passive. >> what was that? is there something missing? >> i don't know. >> i think there might be. okay. i'll be careful with what i say. when you see it, maybe you'll feel the same way. if not, let us know. here are the new focus groups mark and john conducted in iowa and new hampshire. john set down the iowa's democrats and mark talked the democrats in new hampshire getting their views toward hillary clinton, joe biden and bernie sanders. here's what the group said about hillary clinton. >> hillary clinton, three words. >> experience and knowledge. >> i would say experience and caring. >> still impressive. >> if you have a family situation and you could call any of those three democrats for help, which one would you call and why? >> hillary. she seems the most genuinely concerned. >> she's a mom. >> she's an acomp lished female leader who has continued to persevere. >> she's seen how the system worked. she may have a better chan

carson and trump. we have seen this almost for a month now. the shakeup is in this sort of mid-lower tier. the shakeup you have seen is a consistent move across the board for rubio. a consistent move up across the board for carly fiorina. and then you have sporadic places. you see some evidence of jeb bush's tv ad campaign, which is massive. the big news today actually is how much money jeb bush is spending right now on a weekly basis on television advertising. >> compared to other candidates. >> it's not even close. what will interesting, they are trying to buy poll numbers. when you're this far out, it's not about winning a campaign shs it's about buying poll numbers and getting him securely in that first tier. you see some evidence that it's working in new hampshire. we'll see if it has a trickle down effect. >> and meanwhile, trump, even though he's in first, does he show some vulnerability? >> in iowa and new hampshire, yes. but in other state polls, no. it's a real conundrum for party boths. hillary clinton and donald trump are leading matchups. you can say in iowa and new hamp

ben carson said he would have done if confronted by the oregon community college shooter. and you won't believe who is coming to his defense. >> i would not just stand there and let them shoot me. i would say, hey, guys, everybody attack him. he may shoot me, but he can't get us all. >>> plus, are you ready for biden? we'll talk to one reporter who says the hillary clinton campaign is ready and already armed with at least three tag lines. >>> first, the fbi foils a frightening plot but russian-linked smugglers to sell nuclear material. but was there really an isis connection? former nato commander wesley clark joins me coming up. i'm on the move all day long... and sometimes, i just don't eat the way i should. so i drink boost® to get the nutrition that i'm missing. boost complete nutritional drink has 26 essential vitamins and minerals, including calcium and vitamin d to support strong bones and 10 grams of protein to help maintain muscle. all with a great taste. i don't plan on slowing down any time soon. stay strong. stay active with boost®. at safelite, we know how busy life

this deal. donald trump and ben carson have come out firmly against the deal. jeb bush and marco rubio are firmly for it. fiorina, still on the fence. kristin welker has been with the clinton campaign all day. she's in mt. vernon, iowa. they've put out a long explanation on this, but no matter what, there are a lot of statements she's said over the years when it comes to being in favor of this deal, kristin. >> reporter: that's for sure, chuck. this underscores the fine line that secretary clinton is walking. at times embracing president obama's policies when it comes to gun control, for example. and in this case, this very thorny topic in democratic primary politics, she's distancing herself quite significantly from president obama. as you said, chuck, this was a deal that she told as secretary of state. today she said she's opposed to it. she said it doesn't meet her bar for creating jobs, protecting salaries or protecting national security. take a listen to a little bit more of what she had to say. >> i'm worried about currency manipulation not being part of the agreement. we've los

movement pushing forward with an emotional 90 second campaign ad. ben carson continuing with controversial comments on that mass shooting in oregon and breaking news on the historic flooding in south carolina. the weather is better but the state's governor still has a warning. we begin with that breaking news. hillary clinton just in the past few hours has come out against the tpp, the trans pacific trade agreement. she told -- >> what i know about it as of today i'm not in favor of what i have learned about it. there is one other element i want to make. trade agreements don't happen in a vacuum. in order to have a competitive economy there are things we 23450ed to do here at home that help raise wages and republicans have blocked everything president obama tried to do on that front. so for the larger issues and we don't have the details, i don't believe -- this move by clinton comes days after she came out against the keystone pipeline. those have been two main sticking points between clinton and senator bernie sanders. sanders responded. >> i'm glad that she reached that co

people's attentions. i did not expect to see ben carson up nine over hillary. >> a warning sign. >> appreciate you both joining us. thank you at home for joining us. i'm steve kornacki. and "hardball" starts right now. >>> hillary versus trump. could we be looking at the battle of the century? let's play "hardball." >>> good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. the time for great politics may be upon us. if the trends continue the idea of a 2016 general election that pits hillary clinton against republican donald trump may switch from plausible to probable. we may see a trump election as greatest choice for president in decades. battle between political maverick on the right as the dramatic test of the young 21st century. the second week in october, 2015. trump and hillary, the leaders of the pack. susan miller, political writer. howard fineman with the hu "huffington post." trump promising to flood the air waves with ads and built a national ground game and views the nomination is now within his reach. we're going to the convention. that's it. trump equally defiant. if i

. >> ben carson stands his ground. >> from the indications i got, they did not rush the shooter. >> and we have another admission on benghazi. >> i couldn't have been more clear. >>> and the canned hunting of lions in africa. >> got to money, there are people here who will take it. >>> tonight, the explosive new msnbc documentary, "bloodlines". >> i want to be able to tell the story. i want to be able to select them. >> "all in" starts right now. good evening from san francisco, i'm alex wagner in for chris hayes. less than a weeks before the first democratic debate of the 2016 cycle speculation about whether vice president joe biden may still join the race is shifting into overdrive. and hillary clinton is taking pre-emptive steps to position herself against her opponent. again, she came out against the trade deal just negotiated by the obama administration and now opposed by senator bernie sander s. it is a deal that the president would have no choice but to stand behind. and clinton's position draws a new battle line if he decides to run. according to a new quinnipiac poll, c

in ohio. he leads in pennsylvania by five over carson. here is how joe reacted. >> if any other candidate was doubling a sitting senator running for president and the most iconic governor of the past 50 years for the republican party that's it. >> race is over. >> hillary clinton has new momentum and leads have tightened. she has a 24-point lead in florida over sanders and biden. 19 point lead in introohio and 11 point lead in pennsylvania. i don't know. i think we have to trust polling for what it is. polling is polling. if jeb bush was leading by these numbers we would be working the cabinet. >> we would declare the race over. for obvious reasons people can't get their minds around the fact that donald trump is leading. if you look at history and look where he is now and down a little and coming back up a little, you have to say he is the favorite. >> i have to -- excuse me. it's also if you take the issues. he is more consistent with the republican party than any other candidates on immigration and everything. >> he started off by hitting that sensitive button on immigration

are a think trump can do it and carson because they're outsiders. they like what he can do. >> the last line i've always found in the american politics is the most important line. winner. they can say he's not a great christian, arrogant, bombastic, close minded. he says things they would never let their children get away with, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. winner. americans feel like they've been getting kicked around for the past 50 years and they want to start winning one. >> yeah, we talk a lot about people's disgust with washington. that's part of it. i think what you're talking about explains the durability and if you take it to foreign policy, there's a feeling we've been coming up on the short end against putin and afghanistan, it doesn't feel like we're winning anything. people don't feel like they're getting ahead. i think that to me explains, the outsider piece has made sense to me from the beginning. the notion we're going to restore the greatness is to me what buys him the latitude to be the lack over on the stump. people believe when he says he'll transfer some of

republican side, ben carson over there not backing away from comments he made in the wake of that deadly shooting out in oregon earlier this week. carson said he had never seen a body with bullet holes that was more devastating than taking away the right to own a gun. he also suggested that people should attack a shooter and he would sacrifice his life if he were face to face with a gunman. we have a new look into who been carson supporters are. bloomberg politics put together a focus group of republicans in iowa and new hampshire. they were asked their thoughts hon on the newcomer who has been surging in the poles. >> common sense. >> clearly one of the most intelligent people in the race right now. >> he has everything i'm looking for. think he true. >> who to himself. deep, thoughtful. seems generalon. >> i want to play one little clip right now. >> do you believe that islam is consistent with the constitution? >> no, i don't. i do not. i would not advocate that we put a muslim in charge of this nation. i absolutely would not agree with that. >> how many people agreed wi wi wha

night about ben carson and president obama. the tweet read, "ben and candy carson are terrific. what about a real black president who can properly address the racial divide? and much else." the 84-year-old media mogul whose companies include fox news and "wall street journal," this morning tweeted, quote, apologies! no offense meant. personally find both men charming." let me bring in political panel that we've assembled, "daily beast" senior politics editor jackie kucinich and conservative radio talk show host steve deace. steve, let me start with you. first -- okay. where do we start with this, steve deace? rupert murdoch, what -- what can one be thinking to tweet something like that, and what impact could this have not only on mr. carson but also just this odd relationship, i think it's fair to call that, between donald trump and fox and some of the other people running for president and fox? >> well, tamron, after the fox news debate, the first gop presidential debate, i wrote the analysis for "usa today." and one of the things i put in the "usa today" column is i had never seen

. none of them have any government experience, trump, dr. carson and carly fiorina. none of them ever elected or ran for anything before, killing anybody who has ever had elected office. today if you have a political resume, it's a rap sheet. the voters especially on the right wing side of the country, conservative grassroots side, are so turned off to government, period. look at the numbers on congress. the american people, something like 9 out of 10 do not approve of congress. well, that's reality. if you look at the grassroots meetings that these republican people, these members have to go home to, they call it town meeting, 200 people show up. the guy in the last row raises his hand and said you sold us out, you voted for this guy kevin mccarthy, a partner of john boehner, you sold us out. and everybody boos and cheers and the guy says wait a minute, i'm in trouble at home. so i think if you look at guys like chaffetz, who is fascinating because he's been dying to run against orrin hatch in the senate and mike lee pulled an upset by knocking off bob bennett in utah. grassroot

republican outsiders like donald trump, ben carson, carly fereena. and this instability we're seeing on capitol hill where all of a sudden the points of strength, you used to see whether it's the political parties or the leadership no longer can be able to contain the rank and file. political scientists say in these presidential nomination contests it's the party elites that end up deciding things. that might be the case if you get a jeb bush or marco rubio that becomes the republican nominee later next year. right now we're seeing something where the party hasn't been deciding. the difficulties that john boehner has had in herding cats. it would have been a difficulty kevin mccarthy would have had had he decided to stay in and won the position. if paul ryan decides to be able to get in it would be a difficulty he would have. it's become a very big challenge for the republican party. one other point about paul ryan, as steve was mentioning his conservatism is well known. over the past couple of years, he has been someone who has cut deals with democrats. notably, senator patty murray

and boastful about it. huckabee combative bush surprised graham fear and carson with the kudos. thanks very much. let's bring in joe scarborough to talk more about what donald trump called bedlam. i think that's a pretty good description right now, joe. it's pure bedlam. and this feels different. some people are going to say, oh, boehner is gingrich, mccarthy is livingston. they're searching for that back bencher, denny hastert who will suddenly come in and save the day. there's a missing ingredient. back thenen you had tom delay calling the shots. no one is calling the shots inside the gop. >> nobody is calling the shots inside the gop. it is chaos. lindsey graham and i were there when we were going through our newt problems from '96 to '98. in this case there is complete chaos. lindsey has a reason to be testified for the good of the republican party. the congressional ratings are lower. i remember karl rove telling me something in 2001. he said, if you guys hadn't have run newt gingrich out of town in 1998. we wouldn't have won in 2000. talking about george w. bush. it does