along the gloechblt ten euro is important because we're right now at about a 3 1/2, 3 5/8 retail level. that's near an all-time low. we're having a lot of distress and a lot of discussion about what's the fed going to do. the fed has been anti-data-dependent. they should raise rates because unemployment is low and it looks like there's growth. if you by policy, the fed should have raised rates because we've had such low rates and extraordinary monetary policy. we have to give ourselves room. we're going to be wanting to auctions. what was it that drove the market? that's what didn't happen. it's good news. >> we also had some head lines out of japan talk about pushing the yen lower and there were comments from bill dudley about the dollar. how are those kind of -- you know, playing into what we're seeing today? >> you know, central banking, of course, is key to this. what he said is pretty much right on. the central bank missed their mark, i guess, three or four years ago when they should have normalized. if we were in a normal environmental right now, most likely they'd be talking abo

basically back to where we were a year ago versus the euro. so a lot of the corporate numbers that have this headwind and foreign currency are going to start to have a tailwind. if that went the other way, i think that would be a problem for a lot of things, for oil, for commodities, and for the market as a whole. >> stocks may have been in the red today but gold and oil prices do keep moving higher. let's get to jackie deangelis with more on this. good afternoon, jackie. >> gold trading, getting a little bit of a bid, certainly looking like it's going to make a run for 1,300. it's a safe haven. as you see them rotating out of equities, they're buying into gold. the anticipation is the dollar will remain weak and the fed will stay dovish to keep gold prices supported. 1350 s it in the cards? consensus right now says yes, although, when we hit these key technical levels we see a little resistance and a slap back but oil could continue to move higher. meantime continuing in the after hours session. we haven't seen these prices since last october. it's a story of supply right now, but

. whether the euro experiment will be a long lasting, in ten years when i look back and see it all break up and if the uk leaves, we could say wow they were brilliant early. i just find it so fascinating, that if they think the uk is going to pull out, that is assumed by everybody to be bad news. and i have a problem with that. your thoughts? >> so rick -- >> but it is not just bad news. >> -- long term i don't think this is alarming issue. for two reasons. one it will be replaced by something else. britain will videoan association agreement with the eu. and second briden was trz a free trade zone. so there were different versions. short-term what will it be replaced by and how quick. you may see short-term disruptions but over the long-term i'm not an alarmist at all. >> and dorothy? >> yeah, so the issue really is uncertainty. that is what is the issue. and pushing it to june when you can come right back in right after it, no reason to jump the gun on it. because there were -- could be uncertainty following it. might as well get all the of the cards face up on the table before yo

euro will be enough to keep the deal thwarted. >> we're talking about megatie-ups, what might be next here? you've seen a number of industries go through here. who might be next? >> this industry is notorious for being a copy cat industry. a deal gets struck in one particular industry, you have others swooping around looking for other opportunities. in this kind of ag chemicals space there's yarra, sagenta. deals in the potash business whether you're talking potash, mosa mosaic. some of these global giants might be looking at them if valuations look particularly attractive and the cost of capitol given low financing costs stays as attractive as right now. >> sitting at 2050 on the s&p or 2051. what numbers do you think the kpurters, the algorithms look at? >> it's got to look at 2041 which is what we saw created last week, right? pierced 2041 which it had to do. now they'll see if they force it back down towards 2040. if they do, you have to be prepared for further down side. >> have to have volume to get the conviction. >> thank you very much. appreciate your thoughts on today's mark

shopping experience. that is very cool, euro, flowers layout. fresh and easy tried it. had some trouble. whole food is not fresh and easy. they know americans. i'm curious to see how it does. >> the flowers is interesting, carol. >> what's interesting is what this is going to the multiple on the stock. if you look at the trend here they have less employees because they cannot sustain the high priced employees. they have less organic. their multiple is giving them credit for that being their brand. at some point if they come closer to any sort of other super market chain then this multiple is going to be cut potentially in half or less. >> it is definitely a defensive strategic move by whole foods. i think it is interesting they still say they have a tremendous amount of running room to expand the core chain and they that remains to be seen if they are doing this at the same time. >> jane wells testing out the new 365 store. here sharon epperson. >> at this hour, 11 states are suing the federal government, arguing it had no authority to direct the nation's public school districts

u.s. dollars, especially after this decline. >> you know, you mentioned euro, brian. what's happening with these banks? they're still saddled with underperforming loans. look at the euro. you've got to imagine mario draghi's frustration here. >> absolutely. that's the trillion-dollar question for everybody. how can they do more. the european banks are unique in the sense they're financing major financiers of the commodity boom. most is coming from the european bank nchl the world they're a unique type of species. now, ubs in and of itself, you can refer to several other things. they're horn't. their wealth management was horrible and they didn't say it was getting better, so the operating environmental for financial firms is just terrible. there's no growth driver for them. so this is not surprising. and even if the ecb does something more, i'm not sure it's something that file turs like ubs. >> it comes back to the u.s. banks. so much of that was predicated operates going higher. now they're kind of casting around for direction. >> only predicated on that. i know everyone has another

left tail. you could get some very large moves including euro. that could translate into a dollar surge. you could potentially have difficulties with the global banks based in the uk. you could also see contagions start to express itself in terms of breakout risk in the eurozone. again, not in the base case but in the tail. back to the points, what i would say is the following. the only thing you give up if you wait to hike in july is a credible option to raise rates three times. so why, steve, would i not wait to delay in july if i wasn't sending some signal about the probably of perhaps having to go a third time? >> there is a matter of credibility here where the fed has signaled rate hikes. it's been six months. at the end of the day it doesn't matter a whole lot, but you get to crying wolf. you didn't do it in june. you may actually create more risk and more volatility by waiting than if you just went ahead and did the inevitable. >> i don't see that at all, steve. right now the market is priced. it's all set. the dollar isn't doing anything crazy. we're all nicely set for a j

like maybe it's found footing bhou is the euro going to be impacted down the road and a strength in the end is going to show us a few more negatives and continue to hear from bank of japan officials. saying we could do more. and makes everybody nervous and all of this is metastasizing. the lower revenue seems to be what most are talking about with regard to the stock market. and finally we had minus 1% on productivity. back to back negatives. first quarter this year and fourth last year. it was the same last year. first quarter of 15 and last of '14. those are two examples. i only have four examples of back-to-back going to '84 and the other two or 93 and 86. so not a good thing. low productivity is taking the toll. think japan. >> okay. brian jacobson. they are giving you litany of reasons not to invest in the u.s. and your investments you feel are outside of the u.s. right now. right? >> i do. i think if you look outside of the u.s., especially in the emerging markets those are one of my favorite areas. the biggest reason isn't necessarily because i this i the politics are good or

think you're supposed to own gold in euro terms, i think you're supposed to own gold in yen terms, and i actually think you're supposed to own gold in u.s. dollar terms at this point at any correction you can get. can you take it back to 1,275? you could do that tomorrow. but i think there will be strong support for it. i think the monetary authorities around the world with the exception of the united states are continuing to err on the side of monetary policies. even the japanese have no choice after the mistake they made last week to continue to do so. >> what happens, though, if stocks start to take a leg higher, as one of our guests suggested this evening, that they could? >> well, i've been around long enough to remember seeing bull markets in gold when there was a bull market in equities. i have seen bull markets in gold when there's been a bear market in equities. so normally, one must think that a bull market in equities gives way to weaker gold prices. that's not necessarily true. if the monetary authorities are in fact easing -- erring on the side of aggression, that could st

against most major currencies. the dollar index, also against the euro, the japanese yen, it's fallen very sharply. and with the nonfarm payrolls ahead on friday, we think that could be a very strong number. job creation above the 200,000 level. and we think that the fed should start to lift rates in the second half of this year. >> yep. brian kelly, up here on the desk, has a question for you. >> robin, i'm curious, in this dollar call, is this kind of a short-term ahead of the jobs number? or are you calling for something much larger, where let's call it, say the dollar index gets above 100 again? >> yes, that would be our expectation, that it's more of a medium to longer term move, given that we've seen quite a lot of weakness for good ropes in the dollar. so it's more than just looking beyond the friday's nonfarm payrolls through the end of 2016, and also through into 2017. >> the risk, though, is that the fed stays on hold longer than you expect. which has been the correct play, not relative to your outlook. but almost everybody else's in terms of thinking the fed was goin

something external. look at european equities. they still act like garbage. when you look at the euro stocks, it's still down 17%, 18% from the 52-week highs. don't just stare at the s&p 500. there's a lot of stuff that agents poorly, like the russell 2000. >> up next on the show, the one dollar stock that's now worth 30 in a matter of weeks. we'll give you the nasm and tell you if there is still more gains in store. financials clearly, one of the few sectors negative for the year. that's soon to change. why you should be banking on more gains ahead. later, commodities king dennis gartman isn't buying oil in the leadup to opec. he'll be here to tell us what has him staying away. , the mastf suspense and the macabre. i enjoy keeping people up at night. my analysis shows your stories are actually about human connection, even love. great storytelling needs drama and empathy. my cognitive apis can help any business better connect with its audience. you should try writing a book. find a remote hotel. bring the family. i do not think that is a good idea. it's more than a bnit's reliable upt

. maybe those stocks aren't u.s. stocks. here's the exact same index, denominating in euros. again, this is toying ominously with the prospects of ultimately breaking to new three and four-year lows. i also put it in yen to eliminate any currency effect. it's the same message. not good. we know that the stock market since this point has almost gotten all the way back to its highs, while the auto is not participating. a final chart. i think it's good optics. this, of course, is that index. again, the nasdaq global auto index juxtaposed against the s&p. not a good setup. a message for the consumer, and market in general. we're sellers of autos here. you can pick your pick. they all look terrible. >> for home builders, carter? >> equally squishy. it's just that there are a few individual names that are holding up better. but if you were to look at an aggregate of some of the big ones, whether it's tall, or nar, or little ones like polte, these are dragging. so what is the takeaway? hugely important areas that are rate sensitive and consumer sensitive, auto and housing are acting this

have to go on the euro, they will stay with their own currency in britain, and regardless, this is not going to change that. in other words, right now the fx concern because the pound is separate from the ur row, but if they were to leave, and then all of the sudden this softened up, it is very bad for travel and business in the uk. you can only imagine, judge. then you throw it into something like glaston bury which i mentioned a couple of times, the big music festival, and hundreds of thousandses of young people go there and they are the most like ly voters according to the polls to vote to remain, and if they can indeed not vote, because it runs from the 22nd of june to 26th, and that is bracketing around the time, and that wilfred is talking about and that close, it is going to make a difference. >> that is nice anecdote, and the issue that we are not addressing is the impact to global markets, and we know that the currency s wiies will be vo as a result, but the european markets and our own here at home, and how will the markets themselves take the news? >> well, the big facto

summer, greece is facing another round of billions of dollars, euros worth of debt payments. it is going to be another summer of trouble? joining us now to discuss is the greek minister state. minister papas, great to you have here. do you see any trouble making a payment? >> well, no. we're very close to concluding the agreement with our partners. this is our message that we keep getting from both sides of the atlantic. i think that we're at the stage where there is a need for very few steps of convergence between basically the imf and now european partners on the debt issue. i say that because you're giving me the opportunity to explain that we have achieved much more than what everybody was expecting. in july last year, when the agreement was reached, the estimation was that greece would have a recession of minus 2.3. however, gdp has only fallen by .2%. we pushed to parliament reforms that reduce red tape, create stability and make up a stable environment good for investment and business. >> we do manage to do. that now, it is the time, i think, that all sides take a few nor st

look at the same day for the euro versus the dollar. it looks like it is popping to the upside. that makes sense. it's part of the dollar index. look at gold. not exactly the same pattern. but it looks like it's about trod clear the zone towards the 20 yard line, doesn't it? and last chart, the dollar-yen. this is a bit different. this doesn't look like it has as much runway. the left side is flat. that might have run out of runway. let's see how it cross spreads trade later in the session. back to you. >> all right. rick, thank you very much. a bullish call on jcpenney sending that stock higher today. what is the call? how much higher could that stock go? the company once left almost for dead. that's ahead on "power lunch." atand that horrible smellstee are really good at hiding.vice, oh, boy. there it is. ♪ ohh. ooh. [ gags ] so when you need a house cleaner or an exterminator, we can help you get the job done right, guaranteed. get started today at angie's list, because your home is where our heart is. ♪ >>> hi, everybody. here is your cnbc news update. a special administrator

that could send some people away from the euro currency into the dollar which is a natural place to go and the problem and what we've seen in august and january is when the dollar strengthens the chinese go, hey, wait a minute, we don't want that so they loosen the beg and we get this nasty side effect of dollar strength. >> i don't want to call it a currency war but maybe a currency water fall. >> we which will is chexit, the chinese exit from the dollar and china is linked to the u.s. in the zone and trying to break that and it's very difficult in the market. for us the brexit trade triggers the risk of the chexit trade. >> could you see euro dollar parrot. >> i think we could and the question becomes what does the ecb do about it because it would like a weaker euro but they don't want to be seen as a manipulator and they don't want to do it and with a brexit they get a free right. the upside it brings a lot of financial instability and relive august and january and not very good. >> and that's the point, so if you're sitting at home watching cnbc, i don't care, own shares of ge b

points with the steepening of the euro curve. we're not seeing that. people are getting excited and you might see this rally here a little bit and just like, you know, when the banks rallied in december, they all traded off in january and february. >> do you expect the recent gains that we've seen and by the way, there's some gains a lot bigger than the ones i've mentioned along the smaller and regional banks are overcooked to the upside and are likely to reverse? >> one the things you're missing, really sold off in january and february and you're still trading where they were back in november and december so they are still below that level and they have come back, the first quarter this year, especially february, was pretty bad for the institutions, yet they have come back. people will get excited about the fed raising rates. they like it and want to hear the commentary. are they going to do it again before the election? do it one time after the election. that's what they want to hear and however they just want to think that the fed will get rates up at some point but it will take 12 t

ecb will stop issuing the 500 euro note in 2018. existing notes remain in circulation. so this is only stopping the printing of new notes. there is concerns about large notes making it easy for terrorists and money launderers in a world of negative interest rates, cash has real value. if you keep your money in a bank, they give you back less n fact, that's why the swiss central bank announced earlier this year that large denomination 1,000 frank bill is here to stay. despite international pressure to get rid of it. >> get back less if i leave money in a bank. >> with negative interest rates, right? >> so it's natural to take some out. that's why there is an increase in the number of safes sold around the world and think about it if, you have it 20s versus 500 notes, it takes up a lot more space. >> interesting story. there we're following also another developing story out of russia. hundreds of millions of e-mail addresses and pass words have been discovered by a russian teenager who lives in the middle of nowhere. >> this is a potentially scary e-mail hacking story of cybersecuri

. and the satellite companies took a hit after euro satellite came through with a profit warning. and then also, we have the vote of the june 23rd whether uk are will leave the european union. and today, christine lagarde said it is not a good idea overal overall, and you see that the sterling is in negative territory, and the big thing, and this is a message from the uk em bbassy in d.c., if you ara briton in the united states or elsewhere, you can still vote, and register by monday to vote in the mail vote for the brexit. it is a quick process online, and you can see the delated dead -- delated deadline for those who can vote for proxy. we think 800,000 britains in the united states, and many of those people will be eligible to vote, and they could actually swing this referendum, because the opinion polls are so huge. >> and yourself included, simon. >> i will be registered to vote, and you have to have been on the electoral register in the last 15 years. >> thank you, simon. it is a tough year for the companies to go public, but the next guest says it will turn around by next year

the rest of the euro zone. that's after the break. olay regenerist renews from within... plumping surface cells for a dramatic transformation without the need for fillers. your concert tee might show your age... your skin never will. olay regenerist, olay. ageless. and try the micro-sculpting cream you love now with lightweight spf 30. >>> coming up, markets might be higher but we will talk about the bearish call on stocks that has wall street buzzing today. plus, what berkshire's apple buy really means for that stock in the months ahead. and conflicting calls on lululemon today. we debate who got it right today. see you in ten minutes or so. >> sounds good. see you then. >>> we are close to session highs on the dow, up 145. rick santelli has the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> thank you, kayla. why the june 23rd exit vote? i'll tell you what. it's surprising to me that it isn't more overwhelming in one direction or another and i do think the direction i'm surprised isn't larger is the vote to leave. they say it's a close call but nobody knows for sure. things like this are diffe

crossed 100%. 100%, and 1.1 trillion euros or 1.2 trillion of debt. think china thinking spain. sometimes, the medicine that you take is going to make the certain symptoms is different than others. back to you, kayla. >> and rick santelli in chicago, thank you. now, the housing market is back and should continue to grow for the continuing year, and ceo and design company of "house" will tell us u why. you won't see these folks at the post office. they have businesses to run. they have passions to pursue. how do they avoid trips to the post office? stamps.com mail letters, ship packages, all the services of the post office right on your computer. get a 4 week trial, plus $100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again. narrator: sometimes it's the things that the rest of us don't see that can make all the difference in california's classrooms. it's part of my responsibility as someone who's experienced to allow the door to be open for younger teachers. the teamwork between the teachers is essential. when we collabor

pmis out of the euro zone this morning, weakest in 16 months. simon is here. >> some disappointment came through. this is the composite pmi so it services and manufacturing of 52.9. expectation was it would rise. maybe the underlying strength of the economy is 1.5% growth for the euro zone, not 2. relatively quiet start to the week other than that. it is very much the corporate stories that are dominating. the unicredit, one of the big italian banks, the ceo at a news conference in madrid suggesting there's nothing wrong, no dramatic changes are about to happen despite it being widely reported that he could be on his way out as the bank looks to become more profitable and potentially raise up to $10 billion in order to strengthen its balance sheet. another move, chrysler, a german magazine reporting that it -- alleging over the weekend that it too may have used illegal software on emissions. they are suggesting there's no problem with emissions, though the stock is down. the biggest faller is bayer as it prices the bid for monsanto at $62 billion in cash. it's a cash offer that they

the future, but not for you at home if your wi-fi connection is cutting out, and euro is hoping to the problem. the company is announcing additional $50 million funding round. and nick weaver is the founder and ceo of the company, and you are saying that people should buy three of these units across the home, and it is $500 where the standard wi-fi is between $100 and $200 and how do you convince people that they can spend $500 and solve the headaches that we have had with the home wi-fi? well, the big change that people are experiencing in the homes is that we are streaming video and connecting to devices more than ever in our homes, so when you are trying to get the perfect coverage, the only solution is going from the single router to multiple routers throughout the home. that is what we are delivering with eero wi-fi system. so instead of buying one device that you put in the corner of the home, you buy our system of three, and you plug these units in around the housement. so you will have perfect coverage whether or not in the kilt ch -- kitchen or the living room or up in the bed

index which is heavily eurocentric, and the level of the euro and how many handles it has move and the dollar yen, and even the australians and the central bank, and the cut rates was surprising to many, and face it the commodity economy, and don't confuse the economies bottoming with the fact that they don't have sell-offs, because bottoming means a lot of volatility, but you u won't revisit the lows burk maybe consolidation. and build a wooden base which is what the technicians say. and i believe that is what is happening. but the more traders i talk to, the more large bs institutional heads i talk to, when it comes to fx, it is better in confidence building. whether the central banks are playing with the currencies or actually trying to control the outcomes in the way they have historically, i can't tell you to answer, but what i can tell you is that it seems though as if you wonder what is happening on in the stocks or the dow or what is happening in japan although the markets are closed there today, and the more increased activity in fx, the more nervous it shows up on the inv

have adopted a little bit more of a euro viewpoint. we're not worried about necessarily the end customer as much as you are, you know, you're protecting industries at times. you're protecting employees. i don't know. >> but that's what's so interesting, right? saying, oh, we're doing this for the consumer. when you look around, is that who benefits the most? >> exactly. that's a deal. i guess people would say 20 years before that there was no antitrust. anyway, staples will pay a 25$2 million breakup fee to office depot. >>> in political news, bernie sand issers claiming victory in west virginia. in an interesting twist, 39% said they would volt for trump over sanders in the fall. let's bring in john harwood. sanders voters said they'd vovol vote -- what was that again? >> people talked about a cross-over appeal all primary long both dealing with a people disaffected by the system. west virginia is a very conservative state. it's just the kind of state that bernie sanders has done well in against hillary clinton because it's an almost all-white state. very rural state. he's done

pressure off emerging markets. now putting pressure on the euro and yen. commodities and oil prices coming back and settling the market down. china did a trillion dollars of monetary and fiscal stimulus in the first quarter, that lifted commodity prices. corporate earnings is the red flag. negative for the fourth quarter in a row for q 12016. that's what the fed are looking at. how come corporate earnings are so negative. i don't like that. >> how long has it been since we've had four quarters of corporate earnings do that? >> 2009. >> i don't think we should forget why we did have the drops in earnings, right? it was exactly the points you were mentioning about commodities and the dollar. we have had a lot of stability since then. we'll see we had a bottom -- >> why was the market so attached to oil? >> is that still the case? >> you are seeing the correlation come down to more normal levels between the market and oil. i think what we learned is that low oil is good until it gets too low, then we start having concerns -- >> $50? 60. >> more around that level. otherwise we start getting co

terms but primarily in yen and euro terms. now i'm turning fundamentally bullish of gold in dollar terms. i am not a gold bug. i don't think the world is coming to an end but i think inflation is picking up at the margins. you are starting to see strength in the grain markets and strength in the livestock markets on a consistent basis. you have the monetary authorities almost everywhere except for perhaps the united states saying that they're going to do what they can to expand reserves in the system. all those things being equal, all those things being summed up, have to argue for stronger gold prices. gold has been strong for the past several months. likely to continue. >> the move could actually be emboldened even more if the fed gets gu-- gundlach today sayinge thinks it's unlikely they'll raise. people are saying it won't happen at all. that would theoretically help out gold. >> it helps out gold if you see commodity prices in general continue to rally. thus far the problem has been that people, because we have negative interest rates, people have been taking currency out of t

at 1.705%. taking a look at currencies, the dollar is down against the euro trading at $1.13. the yen is at $108.87. and looking at gold prices this morning, you'll see they are up $11. 1,283.70 an ounce. >>> the markets are opening for a firmer week after three straight weeks of not so great action for the bulls. but the dow and the s&p was three in a row, but the s&p is doing better than the dow. here now with a look ahead, christina cooper from allianz gobl inve global investors. and the bow tie is back. remember last time he had on the -- >> he had on a straight tie and we thought something was terribly amiss. >> the market was toppy. >> was that strategic? >> strategic. >> if i was going to wear one, i want one to spin around. they don't make those, but that would be so great. talk about stocks and have it spinning around. that would be so -- it's monday. we have a 3:45 wake-up every morning. anyway, so hans, no recession. and a couple of numbers that came out, retail sales and -- both of those convince you this is pretty good where we are? >> yeah. if you look at the numbers

. >> home depot. >> that's right. home depot. a ten-year, 1.76. take a look at the dollar. the euro down to 1.13. against the yen, the yen has been down, 1.06. that doesn't look like brexit to me. but who nose. the gold treading water, had a great beginning to the year, that's for sure. up for one of the best performing asset classes for the year. the question now, is it headed back up to 1500, 1600? >> stocks kicking off the week strongly as joe mentioned with the broader markets each finishing about 1% higher yesterday. economic data changed this week's market course. joining us is alison dean she's a consultant at dean advisory. and karen kindrow. i think you're both more optimistic. karen, you say all. black swans we've been watching could be surprises? >> that's right. the sentiment is pretty bearish. i think we're coming down to where the positioning is shaking it out. i'm not saying i'm predicting that but i'm saying if i had to be surprised or the market had to be surprised it's more likely to the upside than the downside. >> meaning oil price either stabilize and continue to gro

. we'll debate this. the euro is at 1.1266. the yen at 109.41. >>> we've got top stories including political news, bernie sanders winning the oregon prime but nbc news is reporting that hillary clinton is the winner in kentucky. 99% tallied. she's now within 100 of the delegates needed to clinch the democratic nomination. >>> goldman sachs downgraded its equities in europe and japan. overall, goldman saying it prefers credit to equities, as valuation is not a stretch. the note citing that the fed's less aggressive tone is one of the reasons for upside in the u.s. and calls to offer a more upbeat view on commodities. saying that the fed southwest chinese data should support oil prices in the next three months. joseph. >> no, negative interest rates in a third. world, a flat yield curve here but credit is not stretched. what would constitute stretched valuations at that point? if you're actually negative -- i've been reading a lot of stuff on the effects of negative interest rates. it is say bizarre upside down situation. and it's hard for us to do the right things in this country wh

gain for the first time since all the way back to march of 2015. dollar is down against the euro and up against the yen. gold prices down 1.5% yesterday. right now up about 1$1.60. >>> some averages are down now for 2016, right? some are negative again. >> we were very close to the dow, yeah. >>> when we come back, retailers hit hard this week. find out if there are better days ahead for the sector and what names should be in your portfolio. "squawk box" after a quick break. we'll be right back. ♪ in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and new infrastructure for a new generation attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in rochester, with world-class botox. and in buffalo, where medicine meets the future. let us help grow your company's tomorrow - today - at business.ny.gov >>> kentucky derby winner nyquist will attempt to claim the second race in the triple crown tomorrow, the preakness. nyquist starts at post position 3. i think he was in lucky

the euro at 1.12. the pound is trading at 144.74. and gold prices are under pressure, 1251.80 an ounce. >> that's a big take in the journ journal. wait until june, we could be back to 108 on the euro. >> that's the big question. the currency issue, not the fed. the traders need to figure out up this, figure this out. >>> the dow coming off the first losing streak since 2014. joining me to talk about that and where the markets are headed from here, peter boomfar, chief market analyst and cnbc contributor. and peter, we'll start with you. the markets are ready for a fed rate hike. >> the skittishness in the markets that we topped out with a month ago is sending a signal maybe they are not. the markets won't be ready f for -- both bond and stock markets, we are seven year and is a bull market. that's elevated by fed -- >> do you any the markets will decline? >> i don't think the market is expensive, low rates, low growth, if rates back this up, then the market will be exposed as being somewhat expensive. i'm very skeptical that is going to happen. the. >> what kind of raan impact? >

billion euros in new funds for greece. in return for fiscal reforms the euro form offering athens debt rerelief. and put this altogether, once again joining the eurozone in the bail jouout of greece. it's a better buy at 60%, i think, but -- what's that? >> i can't believe a two-year note yielding 60%. >>> talking about the executive edge. fireworks expected on the hill this morning when the tsa administrator peter nevffenger takes the hot seat. after airports testing the new security system that will hope to move you through the line faster. phil lebeau joining us this morning. good morning. >> reporter: hi, we're going to get a look at the automated screening line opening up we have a sneak peek from tsa as it was open a few hours yesterday testing the system. essentially how it would instead of one person going up and unloading their belongings so it goes through the extra machine and they go through the screening process. five people will be able to do it at once. if you're already done, unloaded all the metal out of your pocket you can put your stuff in hop scotch the person in fr

board. euros trading 111.8 and the pound is 147.04. >> and i'll applies. brent crude prush pushing above $50 for the first time in several months. and were some people right just a couple months ago that made that trade. also shares of takata. kkr expressing interest in taking control of the japanese firm. this coming a it is air bag supplier facing billions in cost due to the recall of those faulty parts. and u.s. foods raising a billion dollars in its ipo making the second biggest of the year. shares are trade on the nyse today under usfd. >> stocks to watch this morning. hp, inc. reporting better than expected second quarter profit. cost cutting offset a drop in revenue. amid continued weak demand for pcs and printers. outlook is below and lower degree not much watch in that stock. and costco, a pull back in spending by high income consumers who make up cost key's business base led to weak sales in april. and pvh is raising guidance after posting better than expected first quarter results. phillips van huesen. >> strong results from tv operations including orange is the new blac

dollar let's check out currencies and you will see the dollars up against the euro. dollars down against the yen at 109.66 and gold prices down slightly by less than $2. >>> crude oil back below $50 a barrel this morning. we had another analyst on -- we don't go right to 60 at this point. do we think we test 40 and even below that. >> we're at the critical junction right now. the high back in october was 50 minneso 50.92. so if we get a failure here we would have a double top on the chart from a long distance. like i said we're at a critical juncture. so technically yeah i think we could go back down. >> cologne, sneezing -- >> i don't have any cologne. >> do you use soap? >> yeah. >> wait a minute. you're complaining he uses soap. >> no joe namath stuff. brut joemt so the funds have moved up with the move back to 50. >> the drop in u.s. production, we're down 800,000 barrels now from last year. it's been a heck of a fall and there's been heck of an aband abandonment of shale plays in the u.s. there were counts that have zero. and you have done good jobs f covering things that ha

rates and you had a short rally. and then draghi comes in with his bazooka, and lo and behold, the euro happens. the currency starts to go up dramatically right to the opposite of that you're having the exact same thing happen here. what we're doing we're actually immunizing ourselves from the global pressures and it's something that will continue on an ongoing basis. purchasing and currencies and devalues our currency and that just gives our environment where we get a little natural benefit from that, but we don't have strong enough global growth to correct everything. and we're not going to be the leader on the growth side either. >> you talked about how weak it looks in the united states. but where else in the world do you go? >> we've got a problem right now. >> i dmiernmean, do you go to f income? >> from an s and l global allocation point we're sitting at a bond rating of 60%. we've got a lot more cash and bonds than normal. joe opens this by saying phil's a lot more nervous than normal. he's absolutely right. we're still in the correction camp here and we could actually see stock

euro and yen. the euro is trading at 1.1146. the yen at 1.1105. gold prices look like down slightly. >>> the dow and s&p are coming off their best week since march. let's get more on this holiday-shortened week on wall street. julian emanuel joins us now director of u.s. equity and strategy at ubs. along with don sciutto. are either one of you june or july in terms of a next rate hike? >> more likely, july. >> if you're going to do it, you might as well do it in june. >> might as well and doing it are two different things, do you think they will? >> i think they will. they've laid the groundwork. i've on an advocate of they should be doing it. british is not going to affect the yen and euro as much as people think. it's going to affect the pound. i think holding monetary policy back because you convince xi to move rates -- >> we're talking about how sensitive the fed is to the notion that they surprised someone. what is that all from? are they -- generally, are they too worried about the slightest market tremors or whatever happens? do they watch it too closely? and then do they tak

dollar was once again i think the yen was back to 1.08 in euro below 1.14. now the latest concern in the wall street journal is the concern for the weak link in all the recent recoveries around the world, it's now a weak dollar. now we worry about the weak dollar. >> you've got to be kidding. >> no, i'm not. it's right there on the front page. >> the dollar is too strong, oh, my gosh. the dollar is too weak. >> investors are worried that a falling dollar could prove to be the weak link in the rally in stocks. >> make up our mind. what do we want? >> we are never happy. sounds like "seinfeld." we are never happy. weak, strong, we need a perfect dollar just like the perfect weather. >> 70, sunny. >> just right. >> 73 and -- >> i think we are going to hit that today. >> finally. >>> joining you to get you ready for the week, we have the chief u.s. equity strategist and deutsche bank's chief u.s. economist and cnbc contributor. guys, thank you for being here today. >> thank you. >> why don't we pick up where we just leftoff with john. he's concerned about demand and what is happening rig

things we handicap, some of the contracts, euro/dollar future, fed fund futures doesn't look like it's anywhere near a tightening. with regard to the rhetoric, with regard to certain voting numbers, you know, holding out or voting against the crowd, is this just theater, peter? i mean, at the end of the day i don't talk to any traders that i've seen historically do pretty well trading the short end, trading the fed, so they have a proven track record, they just don't think it's in the cards. >> well, first of all, it's what yellen wants is what yellen will get. irrespective of the opinions and thoughts and comments from all these fed presidents. the fed is in a major problem that the economic data on the growth side doesn't necessarily support more rate hikes. but the inflation data is becoming more sticky. so i think they should be raising interest rates, but there's pain to that. there's pain in terms of the market response. there's pain in terms of the economic response. but on the other hand sitting there doing nothing at near zero has created its own problem. so either way th

the dollar's also relatively weaker against the euro. things like that certainly help american exporters, companys that are looking to sell their goods overseas when you see a weaker dollar that's a much bigger gain for them. it's a tailwind versus the headwind that the stronger dollar had been for most of the last year or longer. now, buffett talked about berkshire's relationship with that too. and when it comes to berkshire, its relationship with currencies it's a little more complicated. >> we have exposure to -- we do business so much all over the world that i don't really know whether it's good or bad for us when a currency moves because we have lost reserves for insurance that are payable in euros, pounds, yen. and we have some foreign currency investments and then we own stock in companies like ibm or coke that do a lot of business abroad. so i've sort of given up in trying to figure out when you tell me what currencies have done whether i'm richer or poorer. >> that doesn't mean that he hasn't spent a lot of time thinking about some of those trends. berkshire does not h

exports as dollar is strengthening against the euro. take a look at the s&p 500. all the gyrations this year puts it pretty much unchanged, today though up just about 15 points thanks to a broad based rally all ten of the s&p 500 sectors that we watch are in the green in early trading. what we're watching today of course there's more fed speak. you heard carl mention it earlier, philadelphia's harker saying a rate hike in june is certainly a possibility, two to three rate hikes this year but of course focus will remain friday when fed chair janet yellen speaks. investors are watching that very closely. also today we have a two-year note auction, and traders are watching this again because that's the treasury that's rather sensitive to fed policy. so they want to see what demand is like for that. and then home builders are in focus as well today because we have new home sales that's due out at 10:00 eastern time today. and of course toll brothers came out and reported stronger than expected results, good margins, good sales and also high occupancy rates at some of its apartments. al

know, versus the euro 113, 114 range we'll be fine. >> back to the big deal itself of course positive reaction in the stock market both in your shares and cse shares, but some people saying how did you get to 8.5 billion? >> yeah. >> that's how you're valuing the enterprise services business. >> right. >> a lot of the old ede assets. >> well, it's a negotiation like any other deal, right? you know, how much is the e.s. asset worth inside hp? and how much would it trade for if it was a separately traded company? so you look at multiples of revenue, multiples of earnings, multiples of ebitda, and then you look at what you think the growth rate and earnings capability and margin expansion will be and it's a negotiation back and forth. >> of course. >> meg -- >> sorry, carl. >> i would like your opinion on brexit, election, what are you thinking? >> so brexit we hope britain will stay in the eu, it will be good for our business. in fact, i think it will be good for the eu. the fed hike, listen, you know, i don't know whether that will happen or not. obviously we have debt on a lot of our

u.s. what's bad for europe in terms of the euro is good for the u.s. and yet if you look at their markets, those markets trade down as they should because they're going to begin to lose share. benz is going to lose share, bmw, honda, toyota, that's really important for our economy. so what's bad for them, why their markets are going down is good for us. but these futures traders don't look at it like that. do you think they know companies? they say oh, down, down, down. they wouldn't know a company if it dropped on their head. so nissan, okay, they miss. so the japanese companies will miss. that's good for ford and gm. see, ford and gm are american companies. >> yep. >> europe in that obviously is a translation, so again they win. but we should stop looking at what's bad for the goose is bad for the gander. >> pfizer today, david, raises its guide for the full year in part on this lightning dollar burden. >> yeah, although the quarter itself was a decent quarter. yeah, we're going to see the stock up this morning. listen, they are still reeling as you know from the decision on the

, and grade on the curve just like we don the dollar index, and the dollar against the euro or the dollar against the yen, and look at the dollar on the stretch of 1913 to today, and in an isolated fashion and benchmark it against gold, and there, you will get the honest answers. simon, back the to you. >> well, gold did have a certainly good quarter. rick santelli in chicago. >>> as the summer movie is season kicks off, could disney be on track for four billion dollar blockbusters this year? we are talking to our next guest who says it could happen. and now, captain marvel's latest is going to hit the hit the theaters this weekend, and now joining us on the phone is the fund managerer erik davis. you saw this franchise coming again? >> yes, the marvel films are getting better and better and bigger and biggering and i spoke to a lot of the film analysts prior to the film coming out, and looking at the year that disney is lining up, it is adventu adventure-sized ensemble cast, and the avepger po i haves have crossed over $1 billion, and this is the potential, and if you are looking

the president of the euro group was talking about the short term, the medium term and the long term, about how the debt profile can be adjusted. and he wouldn't really decipher the short term or medium term or longer term. day greece gets under the program will be a miracle. >> i think if we go back to the markets on this, we've been here before, and as recently last summer, i think the key point to focus on here and what's interesting here the market has moved away from a concern, stressing greece is bearish. in fact, quite the opposite, remember, last summer when we had a potential greek exit, the euro rallied. i think the reason for this is the euro has seen as risk on currency. on bad news, the euro actually rallies. >> what's the target? >> a high of 1.16. >> steven, thank you for now. more to come from steven from bnp paribas. >> julia, thank you. >>> coming up, isolation means trouble for the uk? from the former ceo there, we'll tell you more of what he has to say coming up after the short break. >>> good morning, and welcome back to "street signs." i'm nancy hulgrave. >> hi,

fewer capital gains. the company's biggest insurer also saw net profits dip to 588 million euros. at aegon is company posted worst than expected first quarter profit. and other insurers this morning. [ slow down ] sees softness across the board there. prudential off about 2% there in the uk. similar story for -- and similar moves at direct line. >> not bad moves for all of them though. because bucking the trend. -- insurance which returned to profit is seeing strength in zurich's general insurance business boosting earnings. speaking earlier here on cnbc. the cfo explained why he's confident that the upward trend will continue. >> the nature of the business we do. we write contracts. with write them for 12 months. so the challenges were bound to have impact in q1. and the impact of the new steps will progress through the year and you should see more and more impact as the year moves on. >> let's get a check on ubs and credit suisse. both companies are under pressure after the swiss government agreed that strict too big to fail banking rules. and the more stuff. switzerland will now h

the weakness is. in our view the resilience of the euro that's causing this problem. >> i was going to say that. when you talk about the euro level, of course the dollar has seen a winning streak here. do you think we're still going to see this resilience in the euro? >> the does tend to sell off after if first rate hike. and it is doing that. we believe they should hike in june but probably won't. they will probably wait till september and that will lead to further weakness in the dollar and strength, unwanted strength in fact. cpi data in germany has been weak. they are importing deflation to some extent. >> domestic car makers. still valuations you could argue are cheap for some firms. some concerns other stuff. questions over whether we should see more consolidation in the sector. what is your view? >> properly, with the exception of other retail sectors. there was some pent up demand from emerging market countries. where the weaknessness of the dollar has let to some --. there really are the exception to the rule in terms of -- the rest of the retail sector being fairly weak. >

volkswagen set aside, 16 billion euros, that's everything they can estimate as the time. so that's huge when you talk to the u.s. claims. when i talked to the ceo, he said this is everything we know today. that doesn't necessarily take into account something like this, a shareholder lawsuit of this magnitude. >> we'll continue to watch it. you might have to go out and cover a couple more press conferences. yeah. >>> and telecom italia shares are trading higher after tripling the cost-cutting targets to $1.6 billion euros. this after the telecom giant reported weaker than expected first quarter earnings. >>> and shell is considering a $40 billion spinoff of its non-core assets according to th telegraph. the firm's cfo simon henry said last week, the float is very much on the agenda. the oil major is trying to reduce the $70 billion debt pile following the takeover of bg group earlier this year. we'll talk oil later this year. >>> and philips is looking to sell a 20% stake of their lighting division in an ipo of shares. finally, we have been expecting this. the company said they were sell

wants currency weakness.dollar is weak, the euro is getting stronger. so increasingly, we're in a world of more and morme and mormon tear policy. >> as we get closer to the g-7, you can bet that's a topic of discussion. you made the point that ecb wants the corporates to level out and spend. in we get there how do you think it manifests itself? are we talking organic growth, m and a? >> i think the greatest success has to be an m and a cycle in europe. in monsanto, it's a great test case for how this may play out. if that deal transpires from a german company potentially that debt will be eligible and buyable by the ecb. we could have the first ecb helping us and taking over the world. >> barnaby, you're staying with us. by all means get involved. it's fantastic to get more people on this table. e-mail us @streetsigns cnbc. that's the address. >> i'm directly @nancy at cnbc. >>> now, i always thought i'd marry prince? >> did you? >> yes. i always thought -- there are so many of us massive prince fans. the types, the jackets, the cds. >> did you ever write him a letter? >> i didn't

lagarde, they're in the euro. when we were contemplating the euro a dozen years ago. it was the same call. the department of ministry was in favor. the financial times completely in favor. most economists completely in favor. the prime minister, in favor. it was the same thing, the euro doesn't work. but so cost sophisticated, people couldn't see for a currency, you need a government. and look what's happening now. real trouble. so, this group think amongst and the great and the good is very dangerous. democracy works. what mark carney thinks, he thought that when unemployment in britain got down to 7%, interest rates go up. it's 5% and they still haven't gone up. he won't get a job as a clairvoyant. >> what better place to discuss the brexit today than at the bar there. that was louisa talking getting another view on brexit. but we are serving on one more pint today. you can head to our website to find out if craft beer has lost its flavor to globalization. that's on our website on cnbc.com. >>> taking a look at global activity, volume at its lowest year-to-date level since 2009. th