still reporting that with 99% of the vote in, the race for first between rick santorum and mitt romney is still at this late hour too close to call. congressman ron paul will come in third. our panel for this portion of our coverage includes msnbc contributor melissa harris perry, professor of political science at tulane. rachel maddow is here, you may remember her from live coverage in the last seven hours. michele goldberg and ranesh. glad to have you here. first let's go -- i believe we have chuck todd is in iowa at the moment. he has been tracking very closely which counties are counted and which are uncounted in this nail biter of an election. what is the latest? >> we have a handful of votes left at this point and so there's various reports out there the google site helping iowa run its -- run that counting process claims everything has been counted and still santorum is ahead. that doesn't matter. it's about what's happening over the next week and the santorum momentum. what to watch for, we had newt gingrich who gave a concession speech that promised to go after mitt rom

mitt romney's winning margin over rick santorum in iowa. the winner wasn't there until three hours ago. the iowa caucuses much about expectations and momentum. who was the winner? good morning. i'm willy geist. this is a special edition of "way too early" live at the 2012 iowa caucuses. we're here again this morning at java joe's. let's get to the results live at 4. in des moines. no one could have imagined just eight votes would separate the top two contenders in iowa's republican caucuses. in a nail biting count that lasted into the early hoursst morning, today mitt romney can claim victory at least by the numbers in the first big test of the 2012 presidential election. the win may be his but all signs now point to a tough fight with a late surging rick santorum at the top of the pack. romney and santorum claimed 25% of the vote. ron paul in third place in the caucuses followed by newt gingrich. after a disappointing fifth place finish, rick perry said he's going back home to texas to "reassess his campaign." michelle bachmann finished behind perry in sixth place but remains a ca

santorum. now there is a four-vote difference. we are waiting on one precinct in clinton county, we believe -- >> we believe it's about 75 votes. just getting word that karl rove has some big news to report out of new york, ahead to chris wallace. >> thanks so much. karl, have you gotten word from a source in the republican national committee. tell us what it is? >> first, they made the correction in story county, which moved it from an 18-point margin for santorum to a four-vote margin for santorum and the keokuk county precinct, the romny and santorum people have agreed what the count was and -- >> this is in clinton -- >> this is clinton county. the one outstanding precinct in the state and tell show an 18-vote victory in that precinct for mitt romney which will give him a statewide victory of 14 votes over rick santorum. >> i don't understand. you are saying that they have come to an agreement -- >> the official-- the person who got the official piece of paper is missing. but the romney and santorum people who are monitoring it agree on what the number is. so they're going to --

much in terms of middle class wage supports or job programs. >> the microscope is on rick santorum. ezra klein. that's "the ed show." i'm ed schultz. listen to my radio show on sirius xm 127. follow me on twitter @edshow and @wegoted. you did a great job last night quarterbacking this whole thing. >> sitting next to you and thinking ahead this was going to the first night of the caucus fights the rest of the year, i had a great time. this is fun. >> we have a lot more entertainment on the way. >>> thanks to you at home for sticking with us the next hour. remember the john ensign sex scandal? every once in a while in the news business it pays to be a total dork and unabashedly obsessed with the story nobody else is talking about at the time. for example, the john ensign sex scandal. i confess, i found the john ensign sex scandal obsessively fascinating for a really long time even though it basically never made front page national news, at least until he resigned. sometimes, though, this i think is true in life as much as it is in the news. sometimes months and years later after you'

endorsement of john mccain and the slimmest iowaca cuss win ever over dark horse rick santorum. >> what a squeaker, but it's nice to have a win. the question i have for you can we do better in new hampshire? >> reporter: new hampshire is a state that will catapult him on to victory in a short period of time. that is why i'm here. it was a small subdued crowd compared to new hampshire welcome rallies for past victors. tough audience question created tense atmosphere. >> you had your turn. now it's my turn. >> reporter: iowa's strategy from the start to spend as little money as possible and still win. new hampshire, he has huge lead in polls and way more money. the man from pennsylvania is man of the hour. >> game on! >> reporter: in a two-week surge from counted out to second by eight votes in contest of 122,000 iowa republicans, santorum set a new standard for grinding out a come-from-behind triumph. now he will take it to romney and try to unite the g.o.p. ardent conservatives. this tonight we have come out of an election that we are essentially three winners. three top vote-getters. >

. right now, 34 votes separate former senator rick santorum and former governor mitt romney. we are still waiting to hear why we don't have the end result. we had the associated press report this story early on -- that -- >> twice. >> that there was a truck driving from story county, and that is where iowa state university is located. i said university of iowa earlier -- >> wow. >> i got 50 emails. >> you are still not over that. >> i'm not. there was a truck, he was driving, g.o.p. officials right now are saying they don't think that's true. but they are going to come out soon and tell us what the deal is. >> that's the problem. they haven't said anything. just to give you a frame of reference, four years ago, it took them -- well, the caucuses began at 8:00 eastern time and we had a winner, barack obama declared by 9:25 on the democratic side. we are an hour 5, just for those of you counting at home and no winner and no explanation for why there isn't a winner. it's a matter of doing the math, says one of the anchors who couldn't do the math all night i. i got there. >> i don't ha

. mitt romney screaks past rick santorum with a mere eight votes. the closest finish in the history of iowa caucuses. santorum was barely a blip on the political radar just a couple weeks ago and today he's the latest contender to challenge romney. >> game on. >> and we're covering all the angles of the game. john king has the big picture and dana bash and joe johns look at the winners and losers and dan lothian and david mattingly looking ahead to the battlegrounds that are now more important than ever. all right, let's start with dana bash. dana? >> well, we have some potential news this morning about what this caucus has did to the field on the republican side. michele bachmann who, of course, came in a disappointing sixth, effectively dead last here in iowa is going to hold a news conference in a few hours. her campaign is not saying what it is about, but it is hastily arranged news conference. it is hard to imagine that she's going to have something and not give us news about the future or maybe lack there of of her campaign. so, kyra, we're waiting to see exactly what she says

paul in a statistical tie. rick santorum close behind. newt gingrich fourth and fading. rick perry fifth and climbing slowly. michele bachmann in single digits. that poll came out over the weekend. arg showed romney in front. paul, santorum and gingrich essentially tied for second. it won't be dull and every move matters. >> reporter: at this stage in the race, there's no room for error. >> it's a wide open race. people have been watching the debates. and they're looking for the perfect candidate. >> reporter: mitt romney leading ]÷ mitt romney has been in the state the least. santorum has visited all 99 counties. which will emerge tomorrow night, old fashioned or mitt romney relying on support. one last thing i would like to show you is tv ad count. governor perry, struggling right now, has up to today, his color the orange, bought the most ads in iowa. will that work for him? you see romney and gingrich roughly in second there. anderson, the key question i want to go back to that initial graphic we had, the key question is this. can the evangelical voters come together, will the

18 to 4 votes between mitt romney and rick santorum. now there is a four-vote difference. we are waiting on one precinct in clinton county, we believe -- >> we believe it's about 75 votes. just getting word that karl rove has some big news to report out of new york, ahead to chris wallace. >> thanks so much. karl, have you gotten word from a source in the republican national committee. tell us what it is? >> first, they made the correction in story county, which moved it from an 18-point margin for santorum to a four-vote margin for santorum and the keokuk county precinct, the romny and santorum people have agreed what the count was and -- >> this is in clinton -- >> this is clinton county. the one outstanding precinct in the state and tell show an 18-vote victory in that precinct for mitt romney which will give him a statewide victory of 14 votes over rick santorum. >> i don't understand. you are saying that they have come to an agreement -- >> the official-- the person who got the official piece of paper is missing. but the romney and santorum people who are monitoring it agree

hampton sent this e-mail to senator ensign's friend. senator ensign's friend named rick santorum. the letter said, "i am reaching out to you because i would like your help. i do know about you and your relationship with john ensign. i'm also aware of the man you profess to be and the positions you have taken publicly with regards to family, integrity and ethics. i am sending this note along to you because of your affiliation with fox news. what i have put in motion with the letter i have sent megyn kelly and fox news. i've tried for one year with john and others to resolve an unbelievable set of actions john initiated and perpetuated bringing great destruction to me and my family." doug hampton attached to the e-mail to rick santorum a letter he had sent to fox news to a host named megyn kelly at fox news. the letter explained senator ensign's affair. his pursuit of doug's wife, his affair with doug's wife, and it explained how senator ensign subsequently fired both doug and his wife. so all that is explained in this letter. and that letter is sent to rick santorum. rick santorum is n

santorum are competing to win in iowa tonight. chris matthews is at the convention center in des moines, iowa and joins us now. how quickly do you expect the caucuses to move from this point? at this point too early to call but those three bunched at the top? >> i'm hearing it's going to take a while tonight, rachel. i think that's a statement in itself. too early to call can be misinterpreted to meaning it's going to be a close race. i'm taking it that way because romney is not racing above this pack or out in front of this pack. the fact that he's being challenged by someone so limited in their political appeal as rick santorum who was defeated in pennsylvania by 17% for re-election shall the fact that ron paul is able to challenge him in a serious race for president, with all his baggage, tells you that the republicans are not lining up behind mitt romney yet. now maybe late tonight i'll change that view but i've watched this thing and watched this polling now for weeks and what you see is a romney problem. although he's defeated his main opponent tonight as we see newt gingri

his son the senator. they say rick santorum is too liberal. we'll ask franklin graham about his father's help and who evangelical supporters should support. also a possible break in the hunt for the arsonist who set 53 fires over the last few days. we begin with rick santorum. momentum is with the pennsylvania senator and he is sticking to his conservative guns. candidate santorum this afternoon. >> i would suggest if you look at the history of republican nominees, that moderate voters, moderate candidates who were there to appeal to more moderates ended up losing. >> but is that tough enough? listen to what congressman ron paul had to say about santorum earlier to cnn's dana bash. >> why would not he be a good republican nominee? >> he is very liberal. >> santorum is liberal? >> have you looked at his record? >> uh-huh. >> go look at his record. >> cnn political correspondent jim acosta is in boone, iowa. he spent the day with jim santorum. i understand he got some interesting last-minute help. >> reporter: that's right. don't tell jim bob dug per rick santorum is too liberal.

latest from the "des moines register," mitt romney and ron paul in a statistical tie. rick santorum close behind. newt gingrich fourth and fading. rick perry fifth and climbing slowly. michele bachmann in single digits. that poll came out over the weekend. arg showed romney in front. paul, santorum and gingrich essentially tied for second. it won't be dull and every move matters. >> reporter: at this stage in the race, there's no room for error. >> it's a wide open race. people have been watching the debates. and they're looking for the perfect candidate. >> reporter: mitt romney leading in the national polls, all but ignoring iowa until the last few weeks. his late focus might be paying off. keeping expectations low, but a win now a very real possibility. >> this president's failed. he went on the "today" show shortly after being inaugurated and he said if,fy can't get this as a one-term proposition. i'm here to collect. >> reporter: ron paul spent the past ten days fighting back against questions of controversial newsletters with his name on them. still, mr. paul supporters among

conservative counties of santorum and paul. so we'll see how this plays out. but all of the campaigns are y saying, well, we see in this in that county, this in that county. they're in the same boat we are. >> and for the perry campaign, for the bachmann campaign, do you have to have soul searching tonight? >> oh, absolutely. i think you have some soul searching -- >> you stay in? >> for michele bachmann, i think she's the one we really ought to be talking about here. because she's not going to have the money to continue. she won the straw poll in ames in august. she's doing -- >> that was a lifetime ago. >> that was a lifetime ago. but, you know, she made a big point, if she was born in iowa, this was going to be her state. this was going to be -- >> so you think she might drop out or, given her money situation? >> soul searching is what you -- i think, yes. >> and if you're rick perry, what justification do you have for going forward? just because you've got money in the bank? >> the justification of going forward, i talked to rick perry today. he said he's the only conservative who can m

caucuss. at this point it is still too close to call between mitt romney and rick santorum. right now at this hour with 96% of the vote in, there is only a 113-vote difference between rick santorum and mitt romney. that's just incredible. here's the six-way result. rick santorum, 25%. mitt romney, 25%. ron paul, 21%, newt gingrich, 13%, rick perry at 10% who again we just heard is reassessing his campaign and heading home to texas and michele bachmann placing sixth at 5%, michele bachmann not announcing tonight that she would be suspending or reassessing or doing anything else with her campaign except heading on to the next contest. listening to rick perry there tonight, i'm not sure 50s a foregone conclusion that he would be reassessing his campaign and heading back to texas if he -- if he placed at this -- placed this far down in the standings, but it was not a surprise. the question is what the implications are of this with rick perry out does anything else move. >> well, something has to move. he has votes that have to move but i think more interestingly, the money, there is a lot

santorum came in second. it was a photo finish. romney beat santorum by 8 votes, or 1/100 of 1% of votes cast. but a win is a win. santorum thanked the caucus- goers and saluted them after the votes were counted tuesday night. >> game on! [cheering] you, you, by standing up and not compromising, by standing up and being bold and leading, leading with that burden and responsibility you have to be first, you have taken the first step of taking back this country! [cheering] >> question, what makes iowa a surprising win for romney? pat buchanan. >> originally romney appeared to write a off because he was fareful of the social conservatives who killed him in 2008 and given the victory to the fellow from our -- arkansas. and i think what happened here was romney decided to go back in and he did well, and he won iowa, and if you win the first two states there's no candidate who has won both iowa and new hampshire who has gone on to lose the nomination. secondly, his challenger is rick santorum, who ran a great campaign in iowa and who came up to tie him, but santorum does not appear to be

after what was a great night for rick santorum in iowa. but the romney campaign had this ready to go, grabbed the news cycle. rick santorum, who has a thread bear campaign wasn't on tv. he was kind of a ghost for a while until later that evening. it was great stage managing except when he got to new hampshire, kind of lackluster event. nevertheless, mccain has now gone out with him and he's helping romney attack santorum on the question of earmarks, which is helpful. so former enemies but now an ally who's by his side. >> julianna, seriously, the two things mitt romney has going for him right now are the idea of -- or aura of inevitability and aura of electability. is that something that counts in new hampshire? is he laying the groundwork for other places? >> new hampshire is known for surprises and not wanting to follow in the footsteps of iowa. he's got electability. what he doesn't necessarily have is relateability. when you talk to voters here over the past several days, i have been at a number of rick santorum events, an unemployed carpenter said look, rick santorum, he knows w

parenthood in romneycare. as governor, romney has tax paid abortions. >> rick santorum as a mere foot soldier in the g.o.p. led revolution. >> in his experience he has been the junior partner. >> he is slapping gingrich and romney backing the healthcare mandate. >> i like the other two folks running here. who supported the individual mandates and supported the top down government healthcare. i have been the leader of the opposite. >> santorum camped out in new hampshire more than anyone and said it will surprise more than iowa. >> he proved the world wrong and the same thing will happen here. >> huntsman is running third in polls. anything less than the primary could end his campaign. ron paul held no campaign events today and returns to the trail on friday. romney left new hampshire to campaign in south carolina. an expression of his confidence and his granite state support and shadowing the importance of the battle in the south where john mccain slapped santorum on romney's behalf. >> senator santorum and i had strong differences on the issue of earmark and pork barrel spending

santorum? is he the guy conservatives can rally around to defeat mitt romney, who again last night was rejected by three quarters of iowa republicans or a one-hit wonder, you see this year's mike huckabee? romney has money, the organization and the patience to outrun santorum, but does his side have the passion? also, the right-wing empire is about to strike back. michele bachmann dropped out today. her voters are a lot more likely to stick a santorum sign on their yards than a romney one. jon huntsman is all about knocking off romney personally, and for newt gingrich, it's not business, it's strictly personal. get ready, mitt. the right's coming at you. plus, will the republicans sign an abm treaty, anybody but mitt? can a coalition of santorum, gingrich and perry voters be formed to stop romney? and is team obama happy right now? not as happy as you would think. they love that romney didn't win big out there in iowa, but worry that santorum will be just the latest anti-romney whose bubble is going to burst. and let me finish tonight with the importance and big importance of new hamps

washington," mitt romney squeaks' out a win in iowa. >> thank you so much, iowa. >> rick santorum's campaign pace up with a strong second place finish. >> this momentum is going to continue. >> ron paul scorza respectable third, and in fourth place, and not happy newt gingrich gunning for mitt romney. >> find it amazing that the news media continues to say he is the most electable republican. >> we are headed to new hampshire and then south carolina. captioned by the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org-- >> not since jimmy carter finished second to uncommitted in 1976 has there been this much excitement in the iowa caucuses. rick santorum had every right to take a victory lap tuesday night. nobody has ever worked harder. two weeks ago, he was a long shot. ron paul -- hats off to him for bringing in young voters. gingrich's fuming and perry has decided that south carolina is nice this time of year. is rick santorum good for the long haul? >> i think he could be. we have had a lot of pretenders who crashed and burned. he is articulate, experienced, knowledgeable. he had bee

turned out to be a two-man race between former pennsylvania senator rick santorum and former massachusetts governor mitt romney with 8% 8% of the vote reporting. mitt romney and rick santorum have 50% of the vote. ron paul projected by nbc news to be finishing in third place, he is at 21% of the vote. newt gingrich, 13%, rick perry, 10% and michele bachmann at 5%. let's go to chris matthews at the polk county convention center in des moines. >> rach, it looks like something could be developing which would be fascinating for the obama people and interesting for the republicans. the normal course of events is when you go on the attack against another opponent, for example, if gingrich is still part of this race coming in fourth tonight at a decent 13% after all that's happened, he goes out with a knife against romney this saturday night on the abc debate again and then on sunday morning with david gregory on "meet the press" in that debate and go after hammer and tongue all the issues of abortion, rip the scab off issue, if he does that who is the beneficiary? not newt. the ben

romney and ron paul in a statistical tie. rick santorum close behind. michele bachmann in single digits tonight. this one showing romney out in front. paul, santorum and gingrich essentially tied for second place. it won't be dull and every move matters. at this stage in the race there's no room for error. >> a wide open race. people have been watching the debates, and they're looking for the perfect candidate. >> mitt romney leading in the national polls all but ignoring iowa, though, until the last few weeks. his late focus might be paying off. keeping expectations low but a win a real possibility. >> this president's failed. he went on the "today" show shortly after being inaugurated. he said if i can't get this economy turned around in three years i'll be looking at a one-term proposition. i'm here to collect. we're going to take it back. >> ron paul is hoping to hold on to the momentum he's built here. the texas congressman spent the last ten days fighting back against questions about controversial newsletters with his name on them. mr. paul's supporters are among the most dedicate

from one efef r efeferal front-runner to the next, he didn't make the cut. >> rick santorum's political career will be ending soon. he will go to the republican convention next year not as a candidate but as a fox news contributor again. >> santorum has traveled all of iowa, and he's still gaining no traction. there's a reason for that. >> then of course, santorum finished in a virtual tie in the iowa caucuses. how could news outlets make this mistake again and fail to scrutinize santorum's record in the process? mitt romney faces skeptical questioning despite winning iowa because his margin was a measly eight votes. >> what does did say about your candidacy that you actually won fewer votes than but in 2008, and you fought rick santorum to a draw? >> perhaps the press is just trying to keep this race alive? >>> plus, we'll talk to the political director of the dominant tv station, wmur, about covering the nation's first primary as a local story. >>> i'm howard kurtz and this is the new hampshire edition of "reliable sources." >>> the media narrative here in new hampshire is s

and rick santorum still attract big crowds. >> this idea of the inevitability of mitt romney as the candidate is going to look so inevitable. >> the campaign has been doing very well but that doesn't mean things can't change. gwen: forcing frontrunner mitt romney to fight to hold on to his lead. >> this campaign is about taking back america and restoring american values and i'll do that. gwen: it may all end here or it may not. covering the week in south carolina, charts charles babington of the associated press, karen tumulty of the "washington post," sam youngman of reuters and jeff zeleny of "the new york times." >> award winning reporting and analysis, covering history at it happens. this is a special campaign 2012 edition of "washington week with gwen ifill & national journal". corporate funding for "washington week" is provided by -- >> we know why we're here. to connect our forces to what they need when they need it. >> to help troops see danger before it sees them. >> to answer the call of the brave and bring them safely home. >> around the globe, the people of boeing are wo