janet yellen continues her testimony. we will follow that throughout the next few hours. ♪ betty: live from bloomberg headquarters in manhattan, you are watching glimmer television. i'm betty liu. e: we start with election day results. in kentucky, voters elected the second gop governor in four decades. have dominated federal elections in the bluegrass state but democrats have maintained control of state government. in mississippi, phil bryant easily defeating two challengers who ran low-budget campaign's s. a daunting task ahead for terry mcauliffe. the state republicans beat democrat backed challengers to maintain a firm grip on the lower chamber. on is therats focused gop was successful, holding onto a 29-19 majority. ohio voters decided not to legalize marijuana. neither for medicinal norv for recreational use. some backers opposed the plan because the plan to grow it imposed a monopoly. a quarrel between china and taiwan. investors had a six-month peak today -- taiwan's exchange closed at its highs level since late

in washington, janet yellen says a hike is on the cards. the incoming if information supports that expectation, then our statement indicates december would be a hostility. -- possibility. compositethe shanghai close to 20% above the august low. it is on the rebound from the $5 trillion stock. >> stockton reports an increase in profits, but says thousands of jobs will go. >> there will be cut. it is too early to show that. >> do you think it would be more in the range of hundreds or thousands? >> i would say more like a thousand. ♪ guy: welcome to countdown. and i'm: -- anna: it is just past 6:00 here in london. mark carney is here later on in the press conference. everyone waiting to see if he will change market expectations for where rates are in the u.k. and when they will get hikes. anna: 1% or 2%. that is how i like to phrase it. are loudas if there voices saying there could be more, maybe another joining the ranks of those trying to get an interest rate hike. more broadly, it is clues. guy: i think it is 1%. i think the fed story is

. >> janet yellen says there's a live possibility of a december rate hike as the french bank has offset volatility around central bank policy. >> based on the monetary policies regarding the fed, ecb i remain overall positive for 2016 in particular for the europe and equity asset class and especially if, as we think, we see a further improvement of the economy. >> british oil and gas services firm amec loses a fifth of its value after slashing it's dividend and increasing it's cost cutting. >> good to have you with us today. let's kick off the program on break news on monetary policy since we have been listening in closely to janet yellen and her testimony on capitol hill yesterday. norway which surprised holding steady. so the norwegian central banks and key policy rate is unchanged or holding at three quarters of 1%. last time around they surprised the market by cutting interest rates. what are we looking at? strengthening back on the back of this and the central bank continues to say that their inflation expectations are in line with what they projected. all right. let's move on and

you're looking at live picture of janet yellen get that is not janet yellen, but she is on capitol hill testifying and her comments have made the decemberove, saying at rate hike is a "live possibility." we are now off the session highs of the yield as well as the s&p slid on the news off of the lows of the session. definitely a reversal in the markets. ecco aarks largely dig statement after a meeting last week that said be central-bank will act if the market and the economies continue to improve. it was that live december possibility that got market to shake out. scarlet fu is back. you can watch what janet yellen testified at her live event channel on bloomberg.com/live. it's a lifestream. alix: scarlet is back. i missed you for the first half hour. it's not the same without my book. scarlet: let's get things started with our bloomberg first word news. remy has more from our news desk. with the latest with the downed russian passenger plane. and egyptian islamic state group affiliate claimed it down the plane, killing all 224 people on board. in an audio recording, the speaker said th

in some ways, i wonder if janet yellen, is this too much talking? how are we going to raise right now? canada is a mess. new york is a mess. we are barely growing. we have no inflation. >> you are in the 5050 category. >> they do talk a lot. i noticed that. i thought he had mastered that. the chairman. the champion of all time. trish: janet yellen. she learned her lesson. she said a little too much. not a lot of points. >> the fed is dominated by academics and government bureaucrats. janet yellen is the art type of that. he these are not folks that ran banks. unfortunately because of that, not a lot of action. >> i also worry that a lot of academics think that they can tinker with the economy. they can manipulate the economy. i think that this fed that has become increased and powerless. >> i concur. central banks are actually making it worse. they are creating global deflation. you talk about the u.s. not having an inflation problem, i think that that is certainly true of the rest of the world. central blank controlling the economy. we need to brea

janet yellen is beginning to speak. we did promise viewers we would take them to her live. >> i appreciate the opportunity to testify on the federal reserve's regulation and supervision of financial institutions. one of our most fundamental goals is to promote a financial system that is strong, resilient, able to selfrve a healthy and growing economy. we work to ensure the safety and soundness of the firms we supervise and to ensure they comply with the applicable consumer protection laws so that they may, even when faced with stressful financial conditions, continue serving customers, businesses and communities. this morning i'd like to discuss how we have transformed our regulatory and supervisory approach in the wake of the financial crisis. before the crisis, our primary goal was to ensure the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions. a key shortcoming of that approach was that we did not focus sufficiently on shared vulnerabilities across firms, where the systemic consequences of the distress or fa

his target is fed chair janet yellen. mr. trump: in my opinion, janet anden is highly political not raising rates for a specific reason. obama told her not to because he wants to be out playing golf in the year from now and doing other things and he does not want to see a big bubble burst during his administration. janet yellen should have raised the rates and she is not doing it because the obama administration and the president does not want her to. david: john joins me now. saying again what he said before. he has made this accusation before. hypocriticaleems of donald trump. yes, donald trump is not a big fan of janet yellen. it is interesting. he questions the political motives of the fed chair. whethert clear to me the rational or policy driven underpinnings those rp or it is he actually and inflation hawk? that no other economist or forecaster can see? there is a debate about race and when we can start to tighten. because of the way it comes out, we never get to come out and drill down. to what his theory of the case i

also, janet yellen wasn't supposed to testify today. the head of supervision was supposed to testify. but it's a post that was supposed to find an appointeeing and the president has that role. five years we're waiting. five years. so i found that fascinating. as far as will janet yellen do it, you have six words. i have three. just do it! i'm sick of all the verbiage. either you do it or you don't do it. it's probably a bad time to raise rates. i don't think the economy is better now than it was before the september meeting. but rates aren't at the right place. so you have to wait. rates shouldn't be at zero, but it's the wrong time to raise them. janet, you're going to have to figure that one out on your own. >> it wasn't just gellen's team, by the way. what do you do with energy here? >> with energy, you need to see the read-through. that's showing that global growth is slowing down. some of the other interesting data that came out today was european pmi numbers. they're growing at the fastest rate they have in six months, going back

>> there's a possibility. >> you sound like janet yellen. >> i sound like a central banker. all i'm saying is if interest rates come it won't be perceived badly i believe over the longer term in the market because if interest rates are rising, you have to have a normalize interest rate environment. people have to earn a descent amount of money on their savings. companies can still borrow at a practical level but the key i think, the worry about the misconception is that it will hurt the market but no time since 1970, i look this morning and i looked on bloomburg this morning and they actually hadn't seen, there was no market correction from the first rate hike since 1970. >> right. >> so a rate hike i don't think will actually hurt the market. lit bring back capex and it will actually sort of normalize people's expectations and the economy can continue to grow nicely. >> historically where the rate cycle begins is good for equities. >> patrick spencer. now before we go, what's a day without something from the donald? donald trump. nbc by the way has pulled three promos for h

janet yellen has financed that failure. and now she's in a corone corner because she's let the failure continue and the money printing doesn't work any longer. donald trump got it right. janet gel enthe democrat from berkeley got it right. and you understand what donald trump is saying. his statements are short and to the point. he doesn't use jargon. you think he's going to drone on about qe or -- that's laughable. of course he's not. he goes right at it. he's not raising rates because obama told her to not. everybody understands that. i'm not endorsing trump, but i like to watch the guy. he says stuff that other candidates avoid. and he says it in a way that is entertaining. i don't know whether he wins the nomination, i don't know if he'll be the president, but i do know this. he's right about the fed, he's right about obama's failed economic policies, and he's brought direct engagement to american politics and that is a very good thing. thank you. stuart: you know, if you had money in an oil stock, and you held that sto

janet yellen suggest a 2015 rate hike -- rate rise is still on the table. then from bowl to bear, the shanghai composite" it percent -- including the six rate cut in the year. governor, mark carney used super thursday. he warned it would continue to push down inflation. that was the week that was. it is job stay in the usa. 185,000.ons are the details will be out at 1:30 u.k. time. --omberg first word status first word strategists. and manus cranny. round of applause for you. questionble today, the , does it need to be good enough to give them conviction to hike in december? >> this is the most important jobs number since the last one. there is an element of truth to that. 50%, the stronger number could get us up to 70%. if we get a weaker number, we could be down into the 30% -- the 30's and 40's again. they need to have the market buying into this before they actually lift off. yellenn: manus, if janet that there would have a running mate for a rate hike next year, -- didn't he?y mantle as he spoke to us, yes. i think you put it quite nicely -- manus: as

janet yellen says that the door is open for a december rate hike . volatility matter more than the data? volatility is a proxy. janet yellen and the fed seem to be reacting to market conditions than data. joe: how do you quantify that? >> the fed should be following , and here is the bond market volatility index. this is a rolling regression of their coefficient, how they react overtime. it is more and more negative. they ease in the face of on market volatility. push you the market around. thatosses violating cardinal rule that every young economist has learned. that makes it more disturbing that the boss, ultimate insider, is violating these rules. bankste shouldn't central be influenced by markets? companies are influenced by it. they delay mergers, don't hire workers. so, because the markets finance what goes on within the corporate. it is the market that looks to the fed as an anchor to where monetary policy is going. feeding backot be onto policy itself. that is what we are seeing. joe: was there a moment that the fed switched? yellen said we w

accusing head chief janet yellen of risking the economy to save president obama. mike, right or wrong? >> trump is spot on with his comments about the fed. the fed's policies by keeping industry rates so long enabled obama to borrow unprecedented amount of money to redistribute it with his entitlement programs. it really hurt the economy. this is the worst recovery since the 1930s. we have the lowest percent of the labor force participating in the labor market that we have ever had. >> well, bruce, we have seen in history other fed chairs trying to help out the guy that appointed. i'm thinking of president nixon who hired arthur burns. he was alleged to have done that. is it happening now? >> no. i don't think so. this ranks up there with trump's birth certificate comments on the president. this is ridiculous. she's not raising rates because the economy is softer than people would like and inflation is low. now with the jobs report out this week, i think she'll probably raise rates through december just a little bit. trump will go back to whatever he's questioning

and i listen to the clip, i heard what janet yellen said today. and i also find it almost laughable that people pay attention any more. like why is she even on tv and who is listening to her. the fed has been wrong -- no one has ever been this wrong. it is like a football team going 0 for 16. and so with fed projections about everything, from gdp to what rates would be, they have been consistently wrong, like a winless team in the nfl. and i think that, you know, the proclamation that anything is possible but we haven't made a decision is more no news. and for markets to move on that, it is irresponsible for her to say anything, right. so i think that investors today, from my perspective, when i look at it, for myself, i need to make investments rather than bets. like i don't want to bet on whether she will move rates or not. i want to win either way. i want my retirement savings to do well either way and i think investors need to think about protecting themselves from both the possibility that we're in a japan style economy for 30 years where rat

we had janet yellen on capital hill. give us the latest metrics, productivity out today, we're looking forward to jobs tomorrow, the economy doing well? >> doing ok. the u.s. economy and the global economy got rattled by the market turmoil of late august and early september. the question of how long does it take for that negative impulse to fully percolate through the economy, i don't think it has fully percolated through the labor market yet. if you think about it, the september jobs report, the last one we saw, that was tallied as of september 12. that did not give hiring managers a whole lot of time to process what was happening and to understand that this was just a fleeting shock to the financial system and therefore they could respond accordingly. i think instead that had a bigger impact on the october numbers which is what we get tomorrow morning and so the last two months we have averaged roughly 140,000 jobs per month. i think that potentially it's going to get worse before it gets batter, so the good news is it

donald trump is calling out janet yellen to be in cahoots with president obama. >> in my opinion janet yellen is highly political and not raising rates because obama told her not to. can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks. active management can seek to outperform. because active investment management isn't reactive. it's active. that's the power of active management. the has unlimited access is thatto information,tion no matter where they are. the microsoft cloud gives our team the power to instantly deliver critical information to people, whenever they need it. here at accuweather, we get up to 10 billion data requests every day. the cloud allows us to scale up so we can handle that volume. we can help keep people safe; and to us that feels really good. ardo you have there? coverage you need? open enrollment ends december 7th. don't put it off 'til later. now's the time to get on a path that could be right for you... with unitedhealthcare medicare solutions. call today to learn about the kinds of coverage w

carney or janet yellen's actions with the real economy? what will they do to the real economy with any policy shift that they might make? mr. magnus: my hunch is that actually the initial move from not have awill genetic effect on the real economy. giganticot have a effect on the real economy. the start of an interest rate rising or interest rates cycle, which go substantially further than anyone thinks at this point in time. would becase, that rapidly discounted into bond yields, credit spreads, and so on. that could be damaging. i do not think that will happen, particularly given the inflation environment for now looks to be so well contained. i do not think it is a restraint on the beginning of the rising interest rate cycle. we will see. i actually believed over the next couple of years we may be surprised by inflation -- not hyperinflation, but on the upside. at the time being it is contained. george magness with us for the hour. next we look at the equity markets. the vix 15. we need wisdom from brian belski. stay with us. francine l

gary: the stock market was lobbying janet yellen very hard to raise interest rates. you were very vocal that you thought the fed should not raise the fed listened to you, so are you happy with what the result was? not in the sense that you wish they would have to be dealing with this, but did the fed did the right thing? sec. summers: i don' t know whether the fed listened to my advice or not, i certainly thought that it would be a mistake to raise interest rates in september. the fed did not raise interest rate in september, and i think the global health economy as a whole is healthier because the fed did not raise interest rates. i think you tap the break, or his brakes, when one of a couple of things is happening. when there are signs that inflation is really rising and getting out of control, i cannot see any of that in the data. when there is a sense of financial euphoria breaking out, perhaps you could make that argument last spring, but you can' a sense that the economy is overheating, and businesses can fall -- fill all their order books. that is not the sens

janet yellen controls that. she is the central banker of the world. was that true in 1998? willem: yes, it was as well. that is not different, but there is a significant brazilian contribution to their decline as well. rate andu.s. interest from china and commodities. vonnie: i think janet yellen would probably reject a little bit the claim. it is true that u.s. interest rate policy affects countries everywhere, and in eastern europe as well. we have the norwegian central-bank just this week needing to do something. willem: somewhat hope so because pangs are dangerous features -- pegs are dangerous features. manynk we are going to see -- at what: when you look christine lagarde has to say, going back to tom's point about the new mediocre, saying there is no room for policy mistake, if we do not raise rates very soon in a country that can afford an interest rate hike, how do they deal with the next downturn? willem: you are going to have a problem because it is almost certain that even if we raise december,he u.s. in and in britain in february, which seems early to me, then

it has a lot to do with changing the world for janet yellen. some say this is too much focus for janet yellen. tweedy enough? i wore this for you, francine. francine: it is very 1930's. i like it. i hope the data is better than that. brendan: a crucial reading --vonnie: a crucial reading on the u.s. economy. the unemployment rate is expected to inch downward to 5%. janet said improving economic data would be a live possibility. u.s. is expected to announce tighter security steps for international flights in reaction to the russian airliner that went down in the egyptian desert. tourists of british were stranded in egypt after flights were suspended in the area. awarentelligence has been for some time about the security issues in the region. was issuedce 2 earlier this year that raised the floor on u.s. aircraft that are operating over the sinai peninsula. u.s. security officials have and have beenare taking steps all along to address it. francine: the russian airbus crashed after taking off, killing all 224 people on board. at least 15 people a

there she is, janet yellen. key fed officials speaking today , ahead of friday's pivotal jobs report. manus: welcome back. this is "the pulse." we are live on bloomberg tv, radio, streaming on bloomberg.com. japan post jumped at their debut in tokyo after investors flocked to the group's $12 billion ipo. the flotation is the biggest in the world this year, the largest in japan since 1987. for more, let's head over to tokyo where bloomberg's japan and korea managing editor is standing by. stockare quite phenomenal price moves. oversubscribed, but even oversubscribed, this is stellar performance today. >> exactly right. we knew that all three units were oversubscribed by between five and 15 times. we saw those prices rising in the market all last week. to see the kind of rises we saw today, we didn't even have trading for the first 30 minutes of the day because the offers were so lopsided. if you take all three market caps combined, ¥17.5 trillion, it would be worth about the same as cisco systems. this is a huge

this is such interesting nomenclature the way janet yellen put this. she is causing quite a stir today in washington after federal reserve choir testified that a december rate hike is a live possibility. we have a love one. her comments caused markets to initially sink. look at intraday chart. at one point the dow industrials were down 8 the points. acyclia back in the hour. do you own these? merck, goldman sachs, biggest percentage gainers. we're looking at yields on two-year treasury note. they hit the highest level in four years as people left bonds and fear of worrying that they somehow wouldn't get their returns back and are going into stocks at the moment. traders are pricing in the possibility of a december rate hike at 58%. this is according to the fed funds futures pits. they sit around and they guess what the chances are. it was just yesterday we were in the 40s, 40%. right now we're at 58% chance. suddenly that has moved higher. now we look at individual names are rocking and rolling here. the behavior of tesla's stock at this hour is an epi

>>. >> we've been in the 98 range, and we have a new soundbyte from janet yellen. this live possibility that they could raise rates, but there's a lot of skepticism here in chicago and right now the markets are quite biforcated. i think the one thing yellen can control, she cannot allow it to get stronger. we saw ram ficks specific in earnings season. look at caterpillar here in illinois. those ramifications stronger dollar will hurt the u.s. economy. i think janet yellen does not move rates in december, and there's a lot of emotion here going into this meeting. >> okay. level that is we're watching before friday on the dollar, what direction do you think we're going? >> jackie, right now 98.30 is the next level of resistance. after that 98 perfo.70, and the there's a clear path. this could be a classic example of buy the rumor, sell the fact. in other words, traders are pushing up right now in anticipation of a rate hike. once one happens, it could be sell the dollar at that point. >> gentlemen, thank you. in the meantime, we will see you on the show. live shows c

i want to do asset classed for p are we heard from janet yellen today. she was testifying before congress and she once again theerated december is on table. she called this a live possibility in terms of an interest rate increase depending on data. we are seeing stocks closed near the lows of the session but not a declines across the board. we see the expectations for the rate increase in december go up. look at my bloomberg terminal. probability. 58% chance of being priced into the futures of an increase in the december meeting. we can see the trajectory, the dip and then they increase following the fed statement last week and that her commentary today. this morning, the probability was at 52%. picking up by six percentage points. we see significant movement in the bond markets today. the biggest yield since 2011, .81% today. sheng a clear uptick as made those comments. similar movement in the 10-year note. huge movement but enough to put 3%, the highest and seven weeks time. the dollar also gaining on the day, along with rates touching their highest si

we hear today from mario draghi and janet yellen. >> figures smash estimates. the nation had to the best yearly job creation since 2010. alibaba double dribble and is of nearly $14 billion. investors, unprocessed. unin and pressed -- mpressed. guy: welcome to "countdown." anna: we have yearnings -- earnings to get through. guy: this is not sexist. let me make that crystal-clear. anna: it is a music reference. guy: the australian dollar, absolutely searching. -- surging. men at work, this is a reference to the numbers that came out from employment. anna: questions being raised, particularly in the last two months how we can rely on that data. let's get to the breaking news of germany. monthe the giants, as the , 2.4 6 billionns euros is the fourth quarter industrial business profit. the estimate was just 2.3 billion. , up to 3 big headline billion euro share buyback over the next 36 months. that was something analysts were looking for going into this. lets get to hans nichols. he has more of the back story. pathway -- ns: the last buyback was about 4 billion. di

it is opposite message from what janet yellen is sending now. she is saying we are ready to raise rates. markets should begin to price that in. the bank of england does not want the markets to get too far ahead of them in placing -- in pricing rates and he is pushing back suggesting it will be to the 16. they are sending a similar message. betty: who was a more effective communicator? mike: it looks like both have had about the same success because we have seen the dollar and u.s. bonds repriced after the yellen, fisher, and dudley comments. the bank of england had a major impact on the currency today and that is one of their focuses. they said in their statement if the pound gets too strong it not only imports inflation but hurts growth prospects. they managed to knock it down significantly against the euro and major trading partners across the english channel. betty: what goes into their monetary policy decisions? mike: they are tied to a single mandate unlike the dual mandate with the fed. focused on prices. they have a target of 2%. that is

look a littlend bit and went janet yellen is saying. stephanie: there is only one plucky little canadian, and his name is erik schatzker. david: thank you very much for joining us this morning to catch up on your special interview. we will have a special of a different sort tonight. mark carney, and if was a conversation, airing at 8:00 p.m. on bloomberg tv. we will be right back on "bloomberg ." ♪ stephanie: you are watching "bloomberg ." we have so much more to cover. tom keene will be joining us with his morning must reads. in one hour and four minutes, we will have the jobs numbers. coming up next on "bloomberg ." stephanie: welcome back. you are watching "bloomberg ." jeff solomon, the president is here and tom keene in some jacket has just joined us. tom: i am wearing it in honor of "spectre." i read an article on how to be cold. stephanie: it is working. david: first word to vonnie quinn. vonnie: everybody grabs onto that as a character. not the slow man running sequence but the actual running sequence. we are

she said janet yellen expect interest rates to rise this year. she's going to deliver a speech on wednesday and congressional testimony coming up thursday. the rates, ebb, have been at near zero since the 2008 financial crisis. that might be changing soon. >> nicole: let's take a look at the headlines of wall street journal. plans to sell beer brands. also streaming battle over tv rights, and ims move would pressure china on management and widely expected to say that it would add onto currencies. >> cheryl: coming up we have a -- had a big weekend from the box office. >> one shot. let's make it count. >> cheryl: hunger games came out on top. we are going to have the numbers. plus, in sports -- >> finally i just had to accept the fact that i don't want to do this anymore. [laughter] >> you know, and i'm okay with that. >> cheryl: pretty honest there. the end of an era, kobe bryant announces retirement and in football the new england patriots finally fall to the denver broncos. we will have the highlights. checking index stocks, kind of a flat open

janet yellen and william dougly said this week that the u.s. was ready for high raise if the economic data justify them. we will see. they are expect today rise by 180,000 compared with september's sluggish number. you may remember that. 142,000. unemployment is expect today remain unchanged at 5.1%. make sure to tune in to mornings with maria at 8:00 a.m. eastern time for maria's jobs in america special job's report. >> cheryl: there we go. shanghai gaining almost 2%. high performance from shanghai. nikkei almost up 1%, kospi and korea down .41%. >> nicole: cac pulling back but the ftse squeezes a slight gain, up two and a half points. >> cheryl: mix bag this morning. not a lot of movement. nasdaq higher by 3. >> nicole: check out of key commodities. gold has been somewhat of a bear lately. >> cheryl: here is how the dollar is trading against key u.s. currencies, global currencies. mexican peso, that would be canada, of course, all of those down. >> nicole: there it it is 2.3%. >> cheryl: investor are looking results for med accompany, walt di

david: let's turn to janet yellen's latest remarks. the december rate hike is still on the table, but only if the economy stays on track. >> what the committee has been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market and to return inflation toward our 2% target over the medium-term. if the incoming information supports that expectation, then our statement indicates that december would be a life possibility. we have made no decision about it. david: investors were paying attention to two other fed officials today. bill dudley holding a press briefing in half an hour and sam fisher speaks in washington later tonight joining me is the ceo of one of the world's largest global asset managers, joe sullivan of legg mason. use at a rate hike will not be the main event. just you said a rate hike will not be the main event. e: we look forward to a rate hike, look forward to getting back to normalized rates. it will be good for our business come introduce some r

janet yellen does not agree. she said she could see it being raised modestly but not by enough to get cit over the hump. the house itself controlled by the republican party feels differently and has a bill that wants to get rid of the $50 billion threshold altogether. alix: what did he feel was the disadvantage to these banks going forward? the issue to him is size. $100 billion is not big enough to propose a risk to the financial system. cit went bankrupt and had more than $59 of assets when it went bankrupt and it was a ripple in the financial system? no. causing no trouble to anybody but bondholders and shareholders and employees. for 10 firms, the 10 largest firms in america, or perhaps the 10 largest firms in the world, those kinds of restrictions make sense. risk properlyage below who knows where the level is, $500 billion, $300 billion, it does not close enough of a risk to the financial system to warrant the county it places and the degree to which it limits the ability to do business and serve customers.

but janet yellen did crushing today, too. one of my favorite stock guys is coming out and we'll hash it out for you next. excellent looking below the surface, researching a hunch... and making a decision you are type e*. time for a change of menu. research and invest from any website. with e*trade's browser trading. e*trade. opportunity is everywhere. put under a microscopee , we can see all the bacteria that still exists. polident's unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99.99% of odor causing bacteria. for a cleaner, fresher, brighter denture every day. . charles: welcome back, we've got important earnings alerts for you. first, facebook beating on the top and bottom line for the third quarter, absolutely blowing it away. you can see the stock much higher in the after-hours session. but unfortunately, whole foods is not so lucky. the health food grocer pioneer has missed again, really big, the stock down in the after-market, trying to explain it away, it's not going away. but tesla came into today soari

erik: a big week for mario janet yellen. expectations of further stimulus from the ecb are high. the ecb moves on thursday. the same day janet yellen will testify in front of congress ahead of the meeting two weeks later. one of italy's biggest banks placed his bets on the fed's next move. >> in the usa, the fed could increase in which it is necessary to increase. year wehe end of the could see the rate increase in interest rates. here interest-rate futures show a 74% probability of a rate hike in december. the focus on your side of the pond is when the bank of england will follow suit. mark: it is a big question. earlier, governor carney said a low rate environment remains. the top growth data was released in the u.k.. us the top u.k. economist at deutsche bank. the low the previous quarters. it is an unbalanced economy. the domestic economy is strong, but the net trade drag was nothing to shout about, was it? >> i'm not sure you can read too much into the future. it was exceptionally negative from trade. i would say that consumer spending is hardly surprising it is growing so w

back then, janet yellen was teaching at university. mario draghi was a senior civil servant in the italian finance ministry. europe's benchmark break was set by germany. that months, the fed boosted benchmark rates to 3.5%. the buddhist bank cut its discount rate by half a percentage point. cut itsundesbank discount rate by half a percentage point to it who better to discuss these issues then my guest. the founder and managing director. richard jones is in the house, from the bloomberg "first word" team. we heraard from you before. you are listening to draghi. nothing new but dovish. that is what we wanted. >> completely in line with what -- the next 12-18 months. we have seen signs of revival in europe. if you look at credit cycles and headwinds from fiscal policies waning, all of this is quite positive. yet, at the same time, the global environment is not very supportive. china, e.m., look at the impact china in europe. all of this put together means that if we have a rate rise in the u.s. in december, will it be a little bit too lat

a big week, janet yellen speaking, cop21, hard to keep up. eu leaders agreed on a deal to stem the flow of refugees. they're keeping refugees in the country and bolstering border controls. meanwhile, russia has announced measures against turkey in response to the downing of one of its jets. down after stepped he was jailed indefinitely. amidst the country's largest corruption probe and renounced his post. estevez has denied the accusations made against him. jpmorgan will leave its bonus pool roughly unchanged since 2014. the buck the trend with european competitors such as deutsche bank which is preparing to cut. for more on that story, mark barton joins us now. look at what jpmorgan is doing and deutsche bank. if you're in the business of needing a job guess where the cv is going? on them.s put pressure this is not confirmed. leaving itschase is bonus pool roughly unchanged from 2014. it is telling the top managers about the big decision. month,m earlier this desks are preparing. the plan could change depending on their training performance

the wrist-based becomes for the likes of you and janet yellen too expensive? erikjohn: institutions that areo big to fail, there are probably ten. we can argue if it's eight or 12. that is the order of magnitude of institutions that are really too big to fail. at $100he set the level billion or $200 billion or some other number, dan cirillo mentioned $100 billion. that's a better level and $50 billion but the real way to deal with it is a risk-based test. erik: going back to janet yellen's testimony, she said at the savior not been regulating yet. john: that's a fair interpretation. david: how do you regulate to get your people to not commit crimes? you can do that and local banks. you can collect the competitor and agree to what rate for going to charge. john: it's very hard to regulate and really how the institutions are run. it's the tone at the top of the institutions. it's how they enforce how their employees behave. i think it has to be a change in attitude at the biggest financial institutions that you can't do these kinds of things. it's detrimental to

you heard janet yellen talking about the u.s. economy. she says it may be strong, others tend to disagree. still, the u.s. economy will be a huge focus and the relative strength. then the ipo market. a lot of larger ipos are now trading at or below their initial offering price. perhaps signs of weakness there. and then transportation stocks as well. people are moving stuff around but maybe not as much and not as robust as some would like. transports a leading indicator, and, of course, mandy, we just talked about the u.s. dollar and what's happening with currencies. if the dollar strengthens appreciably from here you could see more headwinds for the large multinational u.s. companies, mandy. back over to you. >> thank you very much for the new bricks there. do you buy this market or sell it? joining us are ben willis of princeton securities group and matt tuttle. thank you for joining us. ben, we're in spitting distance of those record highs. do you think we're looking a little overstretched, at least near term. >> for near term, yes, it'

>> he got in the name obama right after he said janet yellen. david: true. >> there is the association there. strategy worked well for donald trump for way longer than any of us thought. just bash, bash, bash. when janet yellen, especially with anxieties about the economy are so strong right now, why not -- david: fret, talk about the charge that donald trump charged. we know you and i the fed has been involved in years past with supporting particular presidents. we know it's happened. they never admit it. >> right. david: is it happening now? >> i don't think she is supporting obama. this comes naturally to her. you know, she likes, pumping money into the stock market and not raising interest rates. she is quite comfortable doing that. david: she seems to like democrats more than republicans right. >> who wouldn't? >> of course she does. of course she does. fed chairman no who appointed them and who reappoints them as well. i don't know whether that will happen with obama. i forget how long her term lasts. she may have filled in part of unfille

the fed chair janet yellen's remarks on wednesday may come close. reporter: although markets have been given a very hefty hints, the federal reserve says a funds rate hike is in the cards. giving testimony to a congressional committee, then chair janet yellen has given a signal to the fate of the rate. ms. yellen: what they have been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further it movements in the labor market and to return inflation to our 2% target over the medium-term, and if the incoming information supports that expectation, then our statement indicates that december would be a possibility, but importantly, that we have made no decision about it. reporter: although the hike is expected to be no more than a cautious hike, it would be the first of a series of raises, affecting markets the world over. the fed says it will continue analyzing data until its next policy meeting, from december 15 to december 16, which could end with a historic announcement. ben: and here is something that will no

press conferences for janet yellen every quarter. that's four times a year. to five withd up the conditions you mentioned. to go slower is not likely. you mentioned the calmness with which the bond market has been absorbing jobs data. when you make of that? tony: there will be a gradual to monetary policy. there are worries about china, global markets, etc. that has commenced markets that it will be gradual. looking at a contract three years out, it's confusing to the average person. the contract says the bank rate will be low. the libor rate is close to where the fed's policy rate is. it has 80 basis points this year. over two points in two years. the markets of pulled back -- have pulled back what they thought might be the amount of rate hike. i suggested earlier that's what janet yellen wants us to focus on. she has succeeded. betty: but it's called her in the bond market than the equity market. tony: that depends on what you call calm. this is garden-variety at this point. levels are still relatively high , especially if you want to compare to two years a

people are now more certain that janet yellen will. it is time for the five stories that matter to markets now. number 1 -- yet heard about it this morning -- the deepening scandal at volkswagen. they say it is not just diesel engines caught up in the problem. found eightreview hundred thousand gasoline cars popped out more carbon dioxide than the company ever reported to regulators. vw shares dropped as much as 11% fatefulry, since that day when the emissions scandal just broke. mike buchanan from winco. mike: here's the thing. people have compared this to the bp scandal. at some point, there is value here, isn't there? mike: i think that is definitely the case with the wp it is hard to quantify what that liability is going to be. it is certainly going to be significant. if you look at where bonds are trading right now, they're the ratings,uble the high shall on a junk. that's an interesting point where you may want to consider entering. erik: matt, mike is talking about yields on the vw bonds. is there a way that you can feel straigh

janet yellen speaks. ahead of the tail end of the week, with jobs day and the all-important fed decision. than the commodity story -- opec's meeting in vienna. all of these stores are heavily late, with massive market applications. let's kick this around -- jon ferro joins me, patrick armstrong still with us. jonathan: it's a big week when the fed chair slips under the radar. she seeks this week -- put that in the diary. almostlar is at 100, everyone you speak to is short euro-dollar coming into december. the have to pronounce moves lower. i wonder what is the upside. one,how do you trade this given the fact that you are he had the christmas present? >> a preannounced surprise. [laughter] >> it is going to be a slower, more gradual -- it will be a steady appreciation of the dollar versus the euro. significants tromp positioning on institutional and retail sides. the billions of dollars they are throwing around -- guy: the margin for error here has got to be tiny. >> you have to have no faith in the centra

fed chair janet yellen still speaking on capitol hill. we'll get more highlights of what she's saying about december and a live meeting when "squawk on the street" continues. dow down 32. sure, tv has evolved over the years. it's gotten squarer. brighter. bigger. thinner. even curvier. but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. >> janet yellen testified on capitol hill. the house financial services committee. steve liesman has been watching that on hq. steve. s. >> hey, thanks very much. she's taking a question about some of the documents. you may want to listen in in just a bit. it's a hearing about financial regulation and banking regulation, but all the news, carl, as you said, is about monetary policy. she was asked a direct question about raising rates and whether december was a possibility and let's listen to what she said. >> what the company has been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow to generate further improvements in the labor mark

carney, like janet yellen, had to blink. francine: this again throws up what we've been discussing, tom, which is communication if the bank of england is indeed a little bit more dovish than the markets are expecting, how does it get transposed to the real economy without actually hurting the pound? the pound is a problem. jake: there's a fascinating interplay with them. i think theren is an expectation you would expect a easier bank of england with a tougher government and we don't have a particularly tough vernment as someone missed mr. osborne's proposals on supporting incomes and that would encourage mr. carney to think he needs to tighten earlier as otherwise would have been the case. francine: if we look at the pound/dollar, 1.5477. at what point does it start biting? we have guests coming on the program saying it's not great, "not great. but there must be a level where exporters really start squealing. james: i certainly still believe the dollar will strengthen against the pound on a trend basis. when i look at the fu

if janet yellen is right, what does that mean for his business? himquestion i wanted to ask , i would love to have gotten his reaction. >> the nervousness around the sector is still there. the stock is still lower. >> there is a push and a pull. overlay is quite difficult as well. that is partly affecting the rand gold story as well. the earnings season out of the states, and you look at why, it is energy stocks that are suffering. today is another case. >> guy johnson, good to have you with us. q i for joining us. -- thank you for joining us. carney shows us his cards. >> good morning. welcome back to "on the move." here is the data to watch. the rate decision and inflation report, u.s. initial jobless claims, more details on the u.s. labor market. federal reserve bank of atlanta president speaks in switzerland at 6:30 p.m. discuss the bank of england's super thursday, but decision, the minutes, richard jones and manus cranny. curve.ssively dovish if you go after one, do you get bitten by the other? >> the curve is dovish, not nearly as dovish as

. >> janet yellen said yesterday there is a possibility the federal reserve will raise rates. what is your personal guess about when they will raise rates? what assumption are you going on? >> our expectations are the fed will do what is necessary to achieve their dual mandate. >> that is very brave. >> it is brave. it is also well-grounded. >> you must have some basics and aria about when you expect the fed to raise rates progress our expectation is we look at it that they will pursue a path of interest rate adjustments that are consistent with keeping price stability and the economy growing relative to employment. the u.s. economy is performing well in a new normal sense. this is on the u.s. economy precrisis years. that economy was ultimately unsustainable. it is performing reasonably well. we see them growing in the high twos over our forecast horizon. that is one of the reasons we see our economy continuing to progress. i am quite confident they will make the right decision at the right time. i made a point in the press conference today. i think the fed has been as transp

. >> janet yellen said yesterday there is a possibility the federal reserve will raise rates. what is your personal guess about when they will raise rates? what assumption are you going on? are the fedtations will do what is necessary to achieve their dual mandate. >> that is very brave. >> it is brave. is also well grounded. >> you must have some basics and aria about when you expect the fed to raise rates progress our expectation is we look at it that they will pursue a path of interest rate adjustments that are consistent with keeping price stability and the economy growing relative to employment. the u.s. economy is performing well in a new normal sense. this is on the u.s. economy precrisis years. that economy was ultimately unsustainable. is performing reasonably well. we see them growing in the high twos over our forecast horizon. that is one of the reasons we see our economy continuing to progress. i am quite confident they will make the right decision at the right time. i made a point in the press conference today. i think the fed has been as transparent as they can b

facebook and the non-pharm payrolls and janet yellen on capitol hill. >> it will be busy. facebook expecting big numbers. back over 100. little bit of a selloff on friday. you have the non-pharm payrolls coming out. we're going to see probably more of the same lousy numbers. the bond market itself is saying there's going to be an interest rate increase in december. i really don't see that going to happen. i doubt -- it's hard for me to imagine that the fed would actually raise and bring coal to the christmas stockings of the investors by raising in december. the bond market in gold is telling us that they believe that there is definitely going to be a rate increase this year. i don't see it. that's what the markets are showing us. >> okay. great stuff, todd. thank you so much for joining us today. much appreciated. todd horowitz from the cme in chicago. right. that's it for us here. the debut in europe. stay tuned. we'll be back after the break with an exclusive interview with the cfo of the german commerzbank. >> viewers state side as usual, u.s. "squawk box" is coming yo