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it's 8:a.m. on the east coast. nearly 5:00 a.m. out west. 7:00 a.m. in the state of iowa. that was important last week but it's still 8:00 a.m. in the granite state. we've got our times. i am alex whit, the place for politics. within this last hour new poll numbers from new hampshire ahead of tuesday's primary, a daily tracking poll by u mass lowell in boston shows bernie sanders at 55%. that is unchanged from yesterday. he leads hillary clinton by 14 points. she, however, has gained a point. on the republican side, donald trump leading the field by 21. marco rubio dropped a point. jeb bush, john kasich each picking up two points apiece. trump will return to the debate stage in new hampshire tonight as republicans duke it out one final time before the primary. unlike his rivals on beth sides, trump is taking a break from campaigning today after speaking at a rally in south carolina last night. he did not flaunt his polling numbers like he usually does. but he still thinks he came out on top in iowa. >> trump didn't do so well, what? isn't it funny. i came in a strong, strong first, okay? but honestly, it doesn't matter. got a lot of delegates. and it really doesn't matter because my total focus now is on new hampshire. and then next week my total focus is going to be right here in south carolina. >> let's check in with msnbc's halle jackson in manchester for us. what do we expect from tonight's debate, halle? >> good morning, alex. there is a ton of interest in this race. you can see it with election officials predicting a record turnout as we look ahead to new hampshire's primary on tuesday. but first, we're looking ahead to tonight's debate where donald trump will be on the stage this time. after raising eyebrows with his snow day yesterday. donald trump a no-show blaming snow in new hampshire for skipping straight to south carolina. but promising he's not leaving the granite state in the cold. >> my total focus now is on new hampshire. and then next week my total focus is going to be right here in south carolina. >> reporter: trump pulling big crowds in sunny florence but, back in new hampshire, jeb bush threw some shade. tweeting at trump, my 90-year-old mother made it out to calm ina during the storm. trump, bashing bush right back. >> i mean, jeb bush has spent $112 million and nobody shows up. what the hell? >> reporter: while trump's still leading in new hampshire, it's marco rubio rising to second now. explaining why to nbc's gabe gutierrez. >> it's not enough to just be angry. you have to tell people what it is to do. the cumulative effect for having done that now for months, especially now that voters are tuning is going to help us. >> reporter: rubio at tonight's debate sits in the line of fire as the other establishment candidates look to make their mark. this state for some, a must win. even as rubio picks up an endorsement from a former rival, bobby jindal, and takes aim at a current one, ted cruz. >> by the way if you get a call on tuesday night saying i dropped out, it isn't true. it's a lie. keep voting. >> reporter: that's a dig at the texas senator whose campaign has been accused of playing dirty against ben carson in iowa. cruz looking ahead and looking confident though he's slipping slightly in new hampshire polls still in the top tier nationally. >> the two big legislative initiatives that i'm running on are appealing every word of obamacare and adopting a simple flat tax so you can fill your taxes out on a postcard and we can abolish the irs. >> reporter: it was cruz in the crosshairs during the last debate. this time it will probably be marco rubio and expect to see immigration as a major topic. it's something that's important to new hampshire republicans. and it's also one of rubio's potential vulnerabilities, his rivals know it. don't be surprised to see them pounce. alex? >> thank you so much, halle jackson. >>> the democratic race, hillary clinton has added new events in new hampshire today. all in an effort to narrow her rival sizable lead. nbc's kristen welker has more for us from manchester, the. >> alex, good morning to you. it is a sizable lead, double digits. but secretary clinton has added it and calling in hundreds of volunteers from all across the country and she has a message to her supporters, don't give up. with the democratic race growing more combative, hillary clinton and bernie sanders faced off at a party dinner saturday. >> the only way we create the change that we need is through a political revolution. >> i will spend all my tomorrows doing everything i can to make your tomorrows better. >> reporter: following a day filled with fireworks. >> i want to say a word to the extraordinary people, particularly young people who are supporting senator sanders. i know you may not be for me now, but i am for you. >> reporter: meanwhile, bernie sanders rallied his faithful, again painting clinton as a part of the establishment. >> in this campaign we're not just talking the talk, we are walking the walk. >> reporter: he's been hitting clinton for being too entrenched with wall street. pointing to lucrative fee she's raked in giving speech toes companies like goldman sachs, clinton responding to andrea mitchell. >> are you sorry you did it? >> no, i'm not. because i thought that it was a good way to communicate what i was seeing in the world. >> reporter: accusing sanders of smearing her. >> i think his campaign which he claims to be a positive campaign has engaged in artful smear, innuendo, and insinuation. >> reporter: with just days until voters have their say, sanders has a double digit lead in most polls. supporters ready to put a wynton board. >> we as a generation, i think, are kind of tired of playing the big game and we just want to see things happen. >> reporter: but clinton is calling in her re-enforcements who are hoping history will repeat itself. in 2008 she was trailing barack obama here but came back to beat him. >> can she come back? she's behind 20 points. >> oh, yes. the comeback grandma, i say. >> reporter: now during this week's msnbc debate in response to a question from chuck todd secretary clinton said she would look into the possibility of releasing the transcripts of those paid speeches. so far her campaign hasn't released anything. alex, i've been talking to her campaign officials. they say they're still looking into that possibility. meanwhile, secretary clinton, bernie sanders will be criss-crossing the state late into the night. alex? >> they sure will. okay. thank you so much from manchester. >>> let's get more now on today's top political stories. bring in alease jordan, msnbc political analyst and former senior adviser to the rand paul campaign, and selena maxwell, contributor to "essence" magazine. nice to see you. let's get right to this. we start with the latest new hampshire poll results released just in the last hour by u mass and they show trump still ahead by a sizable margin. okay. it's been that way for some time. elise, is the real story here the two-point bump up for bush and kasich or too little too late? >> i do think it's interesting especially in the case of john kasich because john kasich is known to have the best ground game in new hampshire and he's been retail politicking up there. he's done at least 100 events. he's put in the time. he's put in the money. is it going to make a difference at the polls? that to me is interesting. also the fact that kasich only has 2.5 million. this is really make or break. jeb, however, will still have about $7 million cash on hand, so it's not as important but he does need to show come kind of boost with the voters. >> but he goes on, you think no matter what? >> i think so. i wonder if there's any historical precedent for a candidate to have that much of a war chest with disproportionate results. >> citizens united world for sure. >> i do want to ask you about sanders who still leads clinton by a significant margin here. is there any chance that she can over take him and all this talk of sanders engaging in a smear against her, it's an an artful smear as she points to that phrase, does that line have any chance of backfiring on her? >> well, i think that, look, in 2008 she went into new hampshire behind. and i think -- excuse me, barack obama went into new hampshire way ahead. and so clinton surprised everyone, you know, she had the sort of crying moment, emotional appeal. i think that she's trying to recreate some of that magic she had in 2008. but i also think that she's looking beyond new hampshire and unof the things i'm looking closely at is her visit tomorrow to flint because one of the things that m thes are looking at, because, you know, bernie sanders and hillary clinton voted 93% of the time the same on the issues. so what are they going to do as president? how are they responding to an actual crisis in realtime? are they just simply calling for the governor to resign or are they actually going to flint and doing real things to help the people there? i think that's something the democrats are looking closely at. >> a look at presidential, i guess, appeal and how they would handle something but the difference between the last go round in new hampshire and this one, barack obama versus bernie sanders. which is a household name. separated by a river there, those two states. >> he definitely has a home field advantage, name recognition that he doesn't have in a place like new hampshire, nevada, the states coming up. i think that he's going -- i mean, all the polls are showing he's going to win. we don't know by how much. hillary clinton certainly sending staffer there's to, you know, stop some of that bleeding so that it's closer than a double digit loss for her. but i think she's looking forward. i think that they learned a lot of lessons from 2008 that the delegate math actually matters and they wanted -- they have been hiring and organizing since the summer in those super tuesday states to ensure that they have that minority vote, those people of color that helped barack obama get elected two times. >> yeah. elise, donald trump has a double-digit lead in most of these polls in the state of new hampshire. which has, we should remind viewer, correctly picked the republican nominee in the last two elections. if he wins new hampshire, is it over? >> i don't think it's over just because i do think his stumble in iowa did hurt him. i think nonparticipating in the fox debate really hurt him. i think donald trump's performance tonight is really going to be critical for him to show up and to not have a blustering, bumbling performance. that's going to be interesting to see how he handles that. i wonder how the donald trump ego though is going to handle if he doesn't do as well as he expects because that you see just how he loses, it's really the only time in the campaign that he's been able to -- he's lost his grit. ted cruz has attacked him effectively which hasn't happened before. is trump going to be able to handle going forward not being a winner because we all know he hates losers. >> right. >> but there's something to be said for the new hampshireites who say this, iowians pick corn. new hampshireites, we pick presidents. >> we'll have to say, but he certainly this i do think that trump is going to win it. i think that voting in a primary, that makes it much easier for new people who aren't usually going to go out and spend time caucusing the iowa. i think truch hasmp has a good . is rubio going to see a bump from third place finish. it's been interesting, cruz hasn't seen a bump and i think that he's even been hurt with the carson narrative of the dirty campaigning, of the -- his organizers saying that carson was going to drop. and that just adds to the narrative of a, quote, falseness as senator rand paul put it. >> what about hillary clinton who has been reported that she has made hundreds of thousands of dollars from wall street, certainly with these speaking engagements, accepted a fair amount of campaign money as well. how much does that hurt her when you put it up against bernie sanders who gets mostly small donations from obviously thousands and thousands and thousands of people? >> i think when you compare to bernie sanders it's certainly something that he can take that message to the democratic base. but when you put it up against the republican field, there's plenty of them that have relationships with wall street and so i think that for a general election it's not necessarily handicap for her. she simply has to come up with a perhaps better answer to make sure that the democratic primary base understands that taking money for a speech doesn't necessarily translate into deals or, you know, it's not a handshake deal for policy in the future for wall street. >> okay. thank you so much, ladies. appreciate your insights. >>> jeb bush is certainly stepping up his attacks on marco rubio by claiming he has not accomplished a ling on capitol hill but why does bush say rubio has divided the country? that's next. our next item is a genuine "name your price" tool. this highly sought-after device from progressive can be yours for... twenty grand? -no! we are giving it away for just 3 easy payments of $4.99 plus tax! the lines are blowing up! we've got deborah from poughkeepsie. flo: yeah, no, it's flo. you guys realize anyone can use the "name your price" tool for free on progressive.com, right? 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>> reporter: this is really about demonstrating if he has viability in an election year when you look back and remember the start of this season he was the prohibitive favorite among the establishment with enormous resources and early support among many office holders i would talk to. in the early days when we diplomat know what the field would look like, pre-donald trump time, i would talk to officers and shea they've would say, it seems like it's going to be jeb bush's year. fast forward and voters are deciding and we've seen jeb bush really struggle in terms of connecting with voters and getting their support. when i talk to them on the trail i do hear a mix of people who say they can appreciate jeb bush, they might like him individually but wanting something different, something fresh, sort of the baggage of being part of a political family. at the same time, i was also struck by attending some of this events this week and seeing voters who were there in realtime, they come in with their impressions and then they leave after seeing him answer questions or talk to voters and there were some really favorable comments which jeb bush would say is what he needs to do, to make those connections and to grind it out. part of that, of course, is to try to blunt other candidates who have been out performing him. and one hits close to home. his former protege marco rubio who has seen that bump, that momentum, the rise of endorsements. things coming out of iowa where there are some in the party who say he's the one people should coalesce around, a younger figure, perhaps the face of the future of the party. so i asked jeb bush on his campaign bus about marco rubio and he had a very tough assessment. >> every candidate has to have their record examined. every candidate has to earn it. there should be no coronations here. marco rubio is a gifted politician but his whole life has been around his own ambitions. he's gifted. he can turn a phrase really well but what has he done? we've had seven years with a guy who was gifted, could give a great speech but he's divided the country. >> one of the things when you're at these events, especially with the governors, bush, kasich, christie, they talk a lot abili about specific issues and records in their home states, things they have done. those often don't make these sound bites that are most interesting when we talk about it in a conversation like this. but they really work through specifics about times they were tested, issues that came up, how they had to work with the other party in their state legislatures. things like that. so when he's talking about marco rubio and hit that record, part of what voters in new hampshire are hearing are things that jeb bush says he's accomplished as a way to audition for the nomination in the party. alex? g governors are the ones trying to tout that kind of experience for presidential politics. thank you so much from the white house. >>> let's turn to the trump campaign. ali vitale has been following his every move. you've got marco rubio rising to second place. what kind of an effect is this having on trump's strategy? >> well, so you've seen this time again with donald trump is whenever someone gets close to him in the polls he begins hitting them. and what's interesting about it is he waits for a chance to hit back. he likes to be able to brand himself as a counter puncher. that's something his supporters like about him, especially when a lot of the people that he's hitting out against are people that they're also considering for president. when he was going up against ben carson, when those poll numbers in iowa started showing them neck and neck, they said they didn't love that he was hitting ben carson but they understood why he had to do it because they felt that, you know, carson being close to him in the polls was an excuse enough for him to start counter punching. for ted cruz, someone they like, talk about trump will make him a vp and so they understood why those attacks had to start happening. what's interesting with marco rubio is he's a different lane as so many people see it. as far as trump supporters tell me it's not someone they're usually considering. when i ask them who else are you thinking at as president if trump were not your first pick, ben carson, ted cruz. marco rubio is not a usual name. in this instance if and when trump starts going after marco rubio a again it's going to have less of a backlash effect with his supporters because that's not someone that they had a particular level of affection for previously. so if and when he does start that you could see it tonight at the debate, could start seeing it on the stump here in new hampshire and in south carolina. where we see marco rubio becoming a little bit more competitive with trump in the polls, and that's something that it's going to be interesting to watch and see because immigration is going to be front and center in trump's attack on marco rubio i think, alex. >> very interesting assessment you bring to us. thank you so much. >> thank you. >>> how much of an impact tonight's debate affect the vote and what are the winning issues for bernie sanders in new hampshire that could win him votes across the country? 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[siri:] message. you decide. they're your kids. why are you guys texting grandma? it was him. it was him. keep your family connected. app-connect. on the newly redesigned passat. from volkswagen. but zzzquil is different have pain medicine because why would you take a pain medicine when all you want is good sleep? zzzquil: a non-habit forming sleep-aid that's not for pain, just for sleep. legalzoom has your back. for your business, our trusted network of attorneys has provided guidance to over 100,000 people just like you. visit legalzoom today. the legal help you can count on. legalzoom. legal help is here. >>> hillary clinton is among the candidates making a final push in november today a day after she was flinked by a number of prominent women senators as well as the president of emily's list at a get out the vote event in manchester. while polls show she is gaining traction in that state she is still behind 20 points with bernie sanders and all the democratic voters there. andrew smith, he is the director of the university of new hampshire survey center and fred yang, a democratic pollster. fred, i'm going to reach out to you first. we're going to talk about the gender gap in a moment. but first, overall picture of new hampshire. how concerned do you think the clinton campaign is about trailing sand erers by 20 point today? >> i think they would be concerned by that but other polls that show the race could be closer. and, look, i think what tuesday's about, of course, is about the outcome but also the expectation. and there was some expectation that hillary clinton would do well in iowa and bernie sanders out perform those expectations. i think in some respects they're in the opposite position for new hampshire and great thing about bill and hillary clinton is they tend to run better when they're the perceived underdog. look, the expectation is is that she'll lose new hampshire. i think it will be closer than 20 points. and then they go to nevada and south carolina. >> okay. a point to make though here is that hillary clinton won the new hampshire primary back in '08 beating barack obama by almost four points. so, andrew, why do you think democrats are not warming up to her in that state this time around or are these polls a poor reflection of what you think is really going on there? >> i think there are a couple of things going on. first of all, there's a shelf life for any politician. typically eight to ten years, 12 years at most, between the time you first hit the national political scene and the time you win the presidency. clinton has been on the political scene since 1992. secondly, the democratic electorate has changed pretty dramatically since 2008. it's much younger here than it was then. the older coalition she was able to put together with more blue collar workers and women has been reduced. democratic party here is largely a very liberal upscale party and the younger part of that party especially is seeing clinton as pretty much yesterday's news and they're going heavily, heavily for bernie sanders. >> yeah. so, fred, given the big pop plarity there for bernie sanders if he wins new hampshire, where else throughout the country do you think he can pick up a significant number of delegates? >> well, this is the -- this is the billion dollar question. you know, there is something in politics called momentum. and you know, we've seen some national polls. democrats and republicans nominate their candidates by who wins and does well in primaries and caucuses so the national preference doesn't matter as much. but i think it is significant, alex, in the last couple days in iowa some of the national polls have shown bernie sanders closing the gap with hillary clinton. look, i think monday was important. tuesday's important. february 20th is important. i think these things build on each other. i don't think it's clear yet where he will or cannot do unwell. i think a lot of it depends on tuesday. look, the one thing we do know though is that mrs. clinton tends to do better with minority voters. we're coming on some states in south carolina, other states where there is significant populations of african-americans, latinos. i think that will be actually the real test for bernie sanders. not states like new hampshire. >> yeah. point well taken. andrew, i do want to play for you what a young woman told my colleague tamron hall during a debate watch party on thursday night. here's that. >> she brings up the topic of her being a woman, i also am a woman. i also face discrimination as being a woman. her feminism does not represent my feminism. >> andrew, the daily tracking poll by u mass lowell and boston 7 news found that hillary clinton is starting to gain support among women. what are you hearing from women voter there's about where their loyalty lies between clinton and sanders? >> you can't think of women as a single block. among older women clinton is doing better. trailing but it's pretty close among older women, 65 and older. she's doing okay not as good as she would hope among those women between say 35 and 65. but among younger women, she's getting killed like she is among younger men almost. she's losing -- she's only getting -- sanders is getting close to 70% of the vote by -- from women under the age of 35. >> andrew, what what about republicans? i want to talk about that with you because the latest nbc/"wall street journal" poll shows rubio in second place. when they don't match the polls leading up to the caucuses there, how do you think new hampshire will be different? >> well, the thing to remember about new hampshire is we have really high turnout here. it was 54% in 2000. that means it's not political activists dominating the electorate. regular people who for the most part don't have much invested in any of these candidates. they can switch around very quickly at the end. we've seen this happen time after time after time that polls and voters shift around at the end of the campaign and polls are usually not that predictive because of this. rubio is moving up into second place. john kasich is another person i would pay attention to. both of them because they don't have a lot of downside among most of the parts of the republican. kasich is one big weakness is among people who listen to talk radio. but rubio is a guy to watch simply because he's like everybody's second choice here. >> fred, when you look through all the different polls coming out of new hampshire on the republican side how do you read into them, particularly when it comes to the establishment lane, talking about those two andrew was just mentioning and add bush to that and christie? >> i cannot agree more first, alex, with andrew's overall point which is polls and polls for primaries are volatile. think about it. for most americans their expose shu sure to the campaign will be limited. most new hampshireites are living and breathing this campaign probably on a personal visceral basis every day. i think in terms of the republican primary, i think one of the most important turnout issues will be what% of the republican primary electorate on tuesday are actual republican voters. new hampshire has an open primary system, independents can vote in the republican or democratic primary. marco rubio, ted cruz, john kasich, they tend to do better with republicans. and so i think one of the x factors for both the democrats and republicans will be who actually shows up on tuesday. >> andrew, i'm out of time but how much do you think the independent factor is going to be the it factor? i'm looking at the registered voters. 14,000. difference gop leading the democrats in the state of new hampshire. >> the independents or undeclared make up 44% of the registered voters. but when you get down to the people who are actually able or in a position to choose either the republican or the democratic ballot that gets down to low single digits. 3% or 7%. the idea of people moving from the republican primary to the democratic primary is a small, potentially important, more so important on the republican side simply because there are so many candidates and the race could be very close at the end. kasich is doing much better among the undeclared voters in our polling. but again, that can vary, turnouts can make a difference, too. >> we have three days for things to change, which they could. thank you, guys. good to see you. >>> the republicans gearing up for the last debate before the primary. what's going to be different this time around? 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>> you know, tonight we actually have winners and losers. we have people who scored well in iowa. we have those top three candidates, trump, cruz, and carson. sorry, not carson. marco rubio. we also have dr. ben carson. i think this is sort of his last shot. downsizing his staff. we're going the see if he's really on the stage as number four as someone who can stay in this race or if one of the governors take that area. the governors, this is do or die for them here in new hampshire. this is the right area for them to emerge as a viable candidate. and they need to have a really good night so that they can get their voters out, get their base to to go out on what could be a very snowy primary day here. i think you're going to see those top three candidates sort of duke it out as if there's no one else on the stage and see everyone else trying to get in that top tier. >> speaking of the snow, donald trump missed a campaign day in new hampshire yesterday due to the weather. is that going to have any impact with the voter there's? >> you know, a lot of voters want to see the people on the ground. we see donald trump adding a lot of events, not taking anything for granted or running these sort of big rallies he's so used to running. doing a lot more retail politicking. that's important to new hampshire voters. i was talking to one couple who was supporting kasich and they said, i didn't see donald trump here today so maybe his supporters are going to take that the wrong way. maybe our guy can emerge as a strong candidate and get some votes on primary day. >> how about the solid number two in the polls for new hampshire, that being marco rubio. certainly popularity has risen since iowa. but in the university of massachusetts lowell, the 7 news daily tracking poll released this morning the numbers don't necessarily tell that story as rubio dropped a point to 14%. trump up a point to 35%. what are the campaigns making out of this? >> you know, this close in the game i hear a lot of campaigns and a lot of voters say they're just polls. that drop still probably within the margin of error. this is a very, very tight race. a lot of voter s do decide at the last moment. new hampshire is known for breaking lane. i think we can see a lot of movement in this race. all the polls say a lot of people can change their minds in the final days. people are going to get out to the candidates one last time or maybe a first time to make their final call. >> particularly in new hampshire if you're independent. thank you so much. >>> let's go to the democrats now. bernie sanders still has a sizable lead over hillary clinton in new hampshire. in the just released university of massachusetts lowell 7 news daily tracking poll sanders is leading hillary clinton by 14 points so his lead has dropped one point since yesterday's poll. let's bring in annie carney for plit a ko and david corn, washington bureau chief for mother jones and msnbc political analyst. with a welcome to you both. david, first, as you wrote about why bernie sanders is so popular in new hampshire, what did you learn? >> well, you know, people think that it's because he's from next door in vermont and that because new hampshire voters like to be contrary and independent minded and so they often go with the mavericks. but on the democratic side that's not the history. and to begin with, vermont is a lovely place. new hampshire is a lovely place. if you talk to people in new hampshire, they don't really have a special bond or fondness with vermont. and hillary clinton is as well-known here as bernie sanders. so there really is no home field advantage, especially given that in 2008 this state, the democrats, went for hillary. and that earlier in the campaign she was beating bernie by 20 to 30 points. if you go back to the history issue again, you find that over the last couple of decades, new hampshire democratic voters in the primary have almost always chosen the more establishment candidate. hillary in 2008 over barack obama who is the maverick. so why is bernie doing so well, it can only be one thing, that his message is resonating because of the nature of the message and it's really hitting hard with white working class male voters here who used to be, you know, hillary's base but now they're going towards bernie. >> on the heels of that that, annie, to ask you about what you wrote about the clinton staffers. they're already down playing the importance of new hampshire. the polls showing sanders with a wide lead. how is this staff rationalizing mrs. clinton's position with the state? >> for weeks now they've been down playing new hampshire. they want -- like david said, they're playing up this home state advantage, acting like it's just an asterisk when it's not. doesn't matter. it's a nothing win. if bernie wins it. at the same time, so that's -- but she has a big advantage here, too. first of all, the statistics about neighboring state mattering here, they don't have -- she won in 2008, so what about someone who has already won this primary. she's been playing up the gender card here a lot because this is a state that loves electing women. they have the first all female congressional delegation. they were the first state to vote most -- bigger percentage of women than men in the state legislature. jeanne shaheen made history as the first governor and senator. this state loves electing women. that's a huge advantage here. they're playing that out. in terms of staff, they kind of want bernie to come out of this looking like a one-trick pony who won baseically his home state, moving to nevada, south carolina, where hilly will win. the race in iowa is tight but they say a win is a win, claiming it as a win. they hope they can just dismiss bernie sanders as a guy who won his home state when david said is not his home state. >> as you put that as an asterisk lead. david, the national poll, the new one, shows these two candidates pretty much in a tie. clinton has 44%. sanders has 42%. are these numbers energizing the campaign? >> stick with new hampshire for one more moment. i do think that if bernie does very well here and hillary doesn't cut his lead to below ten, it does show that his message can resonate with the certain type of voter that she's not reaching that she will need to reach, particularly also in the general election. but if you look at that new national poll that came out, one of bernie sanders' big endorsers, i was talking to him last night right here, they said, what do you think of this poll? this is amazing. this is great. it shows we have movement. i said, well, perhaps. i want to see one or two more national polls that show it this close. but if they trend in that direction and bernie sanders gets a big win here, that obviously is not good news for the hillary campaign which needs to push this challenge back in the next couple of weeks. >> but does that put confidence in the sanders campaign that it can maintain the momentum, david? >> sure. >> if he wins big in new hampshire. >> yes. >> as annie suggested, the clinton campaign saying this is an asterisk state? >> they're trying to spin it their way. if he gets a big win here and you have a series of polls that show it that close, i mean, that really changes the field a bit. >> it's also great for his money. hess just going to continue fund-raising. he's going to have enough money to stay in this thing into the spring, maybe into the convention. one bad thing for the clinton campaign is after new hampshire which they're going to lose they're going to tighten the race and try and call it a win potentially. but they go to nevada which is not as a sure thing for them as south carolina would be. so bernie has a new hampshire situation in nevada. she'll win. but if he can show he actually put up a pretty good fight and attracted a diverse group of voters the first kind of actually diverse state we go to, that could make him look alive. mostly like the he does well here and he did well in iowa, he's got money to keep this thing going for a really long time which is not what the clinton campaign was preparing for. >> you bring up nevada, two weeks frommed to, february 20th, clinton is campaigning there today. good to see you both. thank you so much, david and annie. >>> bernie sanders taking a quick detour from the new hampshire campaign trail today. vermont senator is heading to new york to appear on tonight saturday night live with guest host larry david. if you recall, david does a spot-on impersonation of sanders. it is rich. >>> coming up next, it is of the fuel on the campaign road. that is pizza and politics. which campaign spends the most on pizza? 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>> good morning, alex. well, first, he's appearing in the state. he has not been in new hampshire very much comparatively speaking. he just held his first public event on friday. so compared to iowa or south carolina this is not a state where his campaign expects him to do very well. dr. carson was speaking with chuck todd yesterday and said he will shift his focus to south carolina very quickly because that's a state that works much better for him with christian evangelical conservatives and with minorities, african-american voters. in the latest u mass poll carson polled 3% here in new hampshire, so there's not a lot of stake that he has here. not a lot of investment that he has here in south carolina. but here in new hampshire. but he is showing up. >> but you know, there are a few weeks to go before south carolina and, as you know, he cuts several campaign staff earlier this week. conventional wisdom out there, shaquille is not just a matter of when he drops out -- isn't a matter of when, not if. >> well, i can tell you in conversations i've had with campaign aides, that whole iowa caucus night incident with the cruz campaign -- with them alleging the cruz campaign sent out rumors about them dropping out caucus night that really helped him -- helped extend that win portion on your question. he wants to stay in this. he wants to show that he can get momentum back again. he wants to go against what they're calling dirty tricks of the cruz campaign so he and his aides and staff are committed to staying in this as long as possible. like i said, they're pointing to south carolina. super pac has 1700 volunteers that are out identifying voters, passing out fliers and booklets. i was just in south carolina a couple days ago and you saw the win ben, win -- lawn signs all over. it's a state that he wants to do well in. he thinks he can do well in. i can tell you that after that incident on the caucus night, his campaign tells me that he raised over a million dollars. that's a 300% increase in fund-raising. so he has money now to play around with and money that can extend him further than many people expect. >> okay. shaquille brewster. >>> politics, popularity and pizza. first up, president obama's approval rating. gallup says it averaged 46% for all of last year, up four percentage points from 201 but where did he fair best? the place where he was born, hawaii where he garnered a 58% approval rating. worst showing, west virginia, 24% gave the president a thumbs up. >>> you know these politicians are brutal. they're brutal. >> that is what this campaign is all about. >> and that's what america has to do again. >> thank you all very much. >> and amid the flurry of the campaign season gal lum's new analysis of paesht affiliation shows the number of so-called red states now out number blue states. 20 states are either solidly republican or lean republican while 14 are solidly or leaning democratic. more conservatives out number liberals in all but three states, most conservative states are alabama, idaho, and arkansas. most liberal, vermont, mass marks and rhode island. >>> the most popular food on the campaign trail, pizza. gawker.com analyzed the spin reports of the campaigns over the past nine months to see who bought the most pizza. the clinton campaign takes the cake, or in this case, the pie, sending $9,000 on pizza. 60% more than the second biggest spender, carson campaign. bush campaign spending the third most, $3600. on the other hand, the fiorina campaign spent zero on pizza. and over the past three months the fiorina folks only went to one restaurant with pizza on the menu. ♪ [screaming] ♪ ♪ the bold nissan rogue, with intuitive all wheel drive. because winter needs a hero. now get a $199 per month lease on the 2016 nissan rogue. nissan. innovation that excites. as we age, certain nutrients longer than ever. become especially important. from the makers of one a day fifty-plus. one a day proactive sixty-five plus. with high potency vitamin b12 and more vitamin d. incredible bladder prthat lets from always diyou move like you mean it now comes with an incredible promise. the always discreet double your money back guarantee. always discreet is for bladder leaks and it's drier than poise. try it. we're so confident you'll love it, we'll give you double your money back if you don't. incredible bladder protection. double your money back guarantee. that's always discreet. >>> at 56 past, brand new poll out of new hampshire shows donald trump holding his lead there and ted cruz losing a point. nbc's vaughn hillard is joining the campaign for us. vaughn, with a good morning. do you think any of the lingering issues from iowa like what we'll characterized as dirty tricks had an affect on this? >> i've been to about 11 of his rallies here so far in the last couple of days and i haven't heard it come up. i think a lot of people are looking at it as political shenanigans. the facts is that people in new hampshire have been look at these candidates for just as long as iowans are looking. very much independent. they don't like to pick the guy that comes out of iowa. john kasich, chris christie, she's guys have been here for months. to see ted cruz lower in the polls is not a surprise. the problem is in iowa leading up to the caucus he said he wanted to come out of this place as two-man race. but what happened left is iowa left with a surge in marco rubio. marco rubio is in second only several points behind donald trump. so really the question is going to south carolina, to the extent that he can keep himself as the pro-life, pro-marriage between a man and woman, keeping his message because a lot of they talk with would he change? message of moderate himself coming to new hampshire. and so far he hasn't done that one bit because he thinks he can win with this strong right wing conservatism talk across the country when all is said and done. if he goes into south carolina with that same message it will give him a boost where he thinks it's a place he can win. >> okay. vaughn hillard, thank you from manchester -- appreciate that. >>> the battle of the airwaves, how much the candidates are shelling out to get the word out. a heart attack can happen without warning. if you've had a heart attack, a bayer aspirin regimen can help prevent another one. be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. bayer aspirin. the access informationlows us to from anywhere. the microsoft cloud allows us to scale up. microsoft cloud changes our world dramatically. it wasn't too long ago it would take two weeks to sequence and analyze a genome. now, we can do a hundred per day. with the microsoft cloud we don't have to build server rooms. we have instant scale. the microsoft cloud is helping us to re-build and re-interpret our business. this cloud helps transform business. this is the microsoft cloud. then smash it into a tree.ch on a perfect car, your insurance company raises your rates... maybe you should've done more research on them. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. liberty mutual insurance. could protect you from diabetes? 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