we may get another trump in europe. matt: this period of uncertainty is probably an exciting and interesting one. is it scary? among the worst times that you have seen since 2008 and 2009? >> it is a good time for economists. i love it. matt: expect for the fact that -- except for the fact that the outlook could be so negative. are you worried it could go a brexit trump populist direction? >> that is very difficult to make a call on this. we already saw in the presidential election and the brexit referendum that you should not pay too much attention on the polls. currently the polls suggest it is a neck-to-neck race and i think it is absolutely possible that the italians may vote against the senate referendum and that may get he said ions because he could step down if he does ot get through this forum. it will implement a division of later between the two chambers of parliament and only then the parliament may work efficiently which is a precondition of the economic reform. therefore this reform is key. matt: all right.

the united states relies on europe. it is not only our biggest economic and trade relationship, our most interconnected defense relationship through nato, our intelligence sharing, our political cooperation. if you take almost any area of government activity, we work closely and often most closely with our european friends and allies. but now we're in a situation where european unity is under pressure from several different directions. unless you're an advocate of american unilateralism, which generally doesn't work out particularly well for the united states, we need to find a way to recognize and to address the way that affects our interests. now, the european reaction to the somewhat centrifugal tendencies has also not been monolithic. you have on the one hand brexit, and at the same time you have the european union producing a global strategy which is a good document that outlines a number of areas where the european union plays and important role and can play an even more important role in the future. so you have b

or less europe? it's an important question. and there are lots of different responses. the french government in particular has taken a very interesting position, i think, when it cops to everything from military bases and military solidarity to rethinking the economic bases of regulatory agendas. if you had any comments or thoughts on that. >> when you ask the question to a french diplomat, immediately the answer is better. so i have done my job. so better europe. again, the problem that we have been facing is obviously the fact that a lot of our citizens and not only in the uk, a lot of our citizens are disenchanted versus europe or are considering that europe -- as i think david was, was only the front line of globalization. for my generation, europe was something which really -- we couldn't even question. you know? it was the way of avoiding war. the war which have devastated the continent. it was also prosperity and security from the soviet union. it was all these elements. but obviously, for a l

, of britain of course, that of the rest of europe as well so that europe can be both defended and restored, and that is the focus of these two speeches. one other thing about putting those in context. there is sometimes a tendency, understandable perhaps, but i think ultimately wrong, to see churchill's career as a kind of gradually downward trajectory, but the high peak is clearly may 1940. he stands alone against adolph hitler. then so the argument would go, by 1943, certainly by '44, he is no longer the senior leader within the alliance against the third reich. his place of power has been taken by fdr and by joseph stalin, and then he does indeed gets to potsdam for the closing conference of the european war. that actually he is only there for a few days and then has to go back to britain and face an election which he is pretty sure he will lose. he does lose it, not on the margin but substantially. , and he doesn't much enjoy being leader of his majesty's opposition. in fact he is very depressed by all of that. and so the story would go he finally gets back to number 10, 1951, but mayb

we need a more political europe, a more efficient europe, a europe more focused on strategic prioriti that will give back everything else to state authorities. manus: caroline has more for us from paris. manage this quite spectacular comeback? musketeers. and i you have the brexit teer. >> absolutely. assistantstory of the becoming the new chief. sarkozy called him his assistant and now it looks like he has just alienated his former boss. for months and months, we saw francois fillon being the favorite. a lot has changed in the last two weeks. you had the election of donald trump in the u.s., the candidacy, and fillon dominated the last debate on television last week. so, this is how we saw this impressive comeback of francois fillon. last night, nicolas sarkozy got two votes from his former prime minister. >> i have high regards for j upe, but the political choices of francois hollande are closer to mine. voters neverhe to take the road of extremism. france deserves so much better. reporter: as we have seen with brexit, and the election of donald trump, you can also go wrong. this is

even churchill argued that if the unified europe he advocated was forced britain to choose between europe or the open sea, it would choose the latter. heath rejected the inevitability of such a choice. he was ever mindful of the fate of harold macmillan whose entry to the common market, and had branded it an anglo-saxon trojan horse. he managed britain's entry into europe in a way that combined a dramatic adaptation of traditional british politics with determination to preserve britain's national interests. his successor, harold wilson, anchored the outcome among the public by a referendum that indicated its approval. in 1975. heath welcomed this event with the following statement, "i have worked for this for 25 years. i was the prime minister who let britain into the community. so, i'm naturally delighted that the referendum is working out as it is." over the succeeding decades, a political european union was built. and the essence of both the atlantic relationship and the special relationships were preserved. but now, four decades later, the global context has changed. profoundly. facin

europe free, that's been our focus, but today, europe is fractured and anxious. and unless we sort of get that discussion going again about how we work on these things together, not just how governments do it, but how populations think we're working on it together, that's probably the more important job, as public diplomacy part of this, getting government i think is going to be very hard. >> i agree with what dan and kurt said. having a strong political declaration at the outset of the next u.s. administration is extremely important. not least because of what dan noted about the burden sharing debate and the extreme criticism of nato at some points in this presidential campaign. so i think, you know, addressing the way forward with our nato allies is extremely important. and keeping up the momentum on resources which has been built up so effectively over the last couple of years. and is, you know, bearing fruit perhaps slower than some would like, but is moving in the right direction. keeping that moving, it would be important as well. >> i agree with the good i

europe has been issues of human rights. it's not going to be as forceful [inaudible] elements of the first question. this is a global problem. it's very simple they rape as aa result of the activities in ireland then they said that the home office pretending that was the source of all the prophets of apple. when irelan ireland joint europd was to. they kept it secret until the new deal to pay 2.5%. they didn't say whether they were there. if they publicizethey publicizey operating in europe that would be a political scandal. when we bring the profits back to the united states pay should be taxed. he said if a tax that we can't. there is a fundamental flaw in the tax. but you have the taxation based on the economic opportunity products generated. it wasn't his home office with employees that generate a prof profit. they try to b tried to be shockt what happened. their celebratory and most people would argue that it was politically driven. can you speculate on what he would think would hav happen ine uk? >> the problem is the

migration crisis russian activities, you're facing europe -- i'm saddened to say this, europe is going to be much more fluid, much more uncertain, much less capable, much less credible. only the u.s. presence and continued activity engagement in europe, as a european power, will maintain that affirmation of our assurance to our european allies about what this is all about. i think we're dealing with fundamentally important new issue, which eats away at our ability to do what the other wants unless we get ahold of that. if you come to the next first 100 days or come to the next agenda, the most important -- and i agree with curt on that, simply a political affirmation, we are in this together. we agree on the broad nature of the threat facing us and we will stand and face them together. the credibility of article 5 and article 4 and all the other articles, in fact, are still with us and we affirm that to each other. that means the next president really has to take the lead immediately, not projecting to summit and bureaucratic schedule but make a political summit perhaps right away to m

europe i is still l reeling froe shock. as a candidate, donald trump b ashed nato and criticized europe and angela merkel. what can be expected now? what is next? in his victory speech, donald trump'p's tone was more conciliatory. he pledged to be a president for all americans, and told the world community he plans to seek common ground with all countries, saying he wants partnership, not conflict. is this a new trump? that's what we want to talk about with three people who follow transatlantic relations very closely and have been watching this election and its aftermath. a pleasure to welcome susan neiman, the u.s. american philosopher and head of the einstein form in pottstown. she says, i am reluctant to make fascist comparisons, but trump's victory is extreme the frightening. europe must now take on the responsibility for democratic and social values. stefan prystawik is a lawyer and a german-american political consultant who was a member of the republican party. he has left it. he says, an evil, aging clown and yellow

yes, this is also a trend in europe. we also have a german-american publicist, a member of the republican party in the united states. he says presidential election times have been rough throughout history, but we are witnessing a candidate who have hijacked an entire political movement to his own end. a few years ago, our guest was a correspondent in washington dc. she says german politics are not nearly as dirty as they are in the u.s., yet, but we are definitely on a worrying downward trajectory. alan, if we could start with you. is this really as bad as we are saying it is? are these the worst elections in tone and content in american history? >> i do not know about that. there have been some pretty bad elections. think of the populist movement in the 1920's. with- but it has to do issues. the point is, here is a guy who delegitimize the political class, wants to delegitimize free trade, and if you will, the liberal order, which up until the end of obama'ss presidency seemed set in stone. it is not gratuitous. it is n

president is that we need more europe. we need a europe that knows where it wants to go. and one thing that is clear to me is that we need a eurozone that is stronger. we have planned how we want to do that, and we want to be united in order to be heard. francine: are you concerned that a trump presidency means that europe will be heard less? you have four and porous the -- you have foreign policy where the u.s. is stronger with russia, china and the u.k. and you guys suffer in the middle? well, the european union is 500 million people, even after the brexit, 440 million people it is the most important single market in the world. the closest business partner of the united states. i'm not worried about that. we have to continue working together on that. , we have to do the negotiation which hasn't even started yet. so he must not put the cart in front of the horse. for the time k, the u.k. is part of the european union. francine: you will be in the negotiating room. what redlines are you setting in the negotiations with the u.k.? yes, definitely. we will be in that room. w

>> one thing is clear, the timing for europe is unfortunate. brussels is still recovering from britains's brexit vote. europeans are now asking themselves whether a president trump might end up being just like the candidate trump. >> brussels was not prepared for this scenario so the list of questions that need to be answered as long. almost everything is a big unknown. >> some consequences are already clear. talks between the e.u. and u.s. about a free trade deal between them are now in a deep freeze. >> now of course with the new president-elect we don't really know what will happen. there is strong reason to believe that there will be a pause, that this might not be the biggest priority for the new administration. >> so what about trump's comments to tear up the paris accord for cutting greenhouse gas emissions? or his statement that nato is obsolete? let's turn again to the expert. >> i think he is well aware that he can not break all international agreements. he can not cancel everything that's in the pipeline at the same time. america nee

you can see stoxx europe flat. pound, dollar, significant euro-dollar, talk about parity for a while, will it happen? will goause of time we to the guest but i love what you did with the fed ramifications, almost certitude. francine: when we were speaking earlier -- 10 days ago, they set of donald trump wins, no fat hike. -- fed hike. victory triggered a selloff in global bonds and emerging-market assets while the dollar rose and we are seeing some of those postelection moves back as investors assess whether they are overreacting to the victory. please to welcome the former first minister of scotland. let me start with you here what is a donald trump victory mean to you? the end of austerity? inequality? how can you explain it, if you can come it means he has a clear mandate to do what? >> nobody knows, the campaign rhetoric employed by the donald is frightening to a lot of people, to mexicans, muslims, perhaps to gays and minorities. you see some of that reaction, not just disappointed, fear in that reaction. on i

doesn't europe want to do that anyway? election of donald trump should not be the only catalyst that they need to defend themselves rather than relying on allies. >> to a certain extent that since world war ii, nato has been the main defense umbrella for europe and they have really looked towards that end done their operations in coordination with that. but donald trump shook them up and now they think they cannot rely totally on that. they are thinking in other ways. they have decided to move forward with more coordination. you can bet that it is one of the things they will be talking to obama about a lot will he is here. guy: the brits are making a lot of the fact that we have one of the core militaries in europe and as a result that will change the brexit negotiations. how seriously are others taking that? >> i think they are taking it very seriously. with brexit, everything is still wide open. there are not any certainties at this point even in terms of exactly when the negotiations are going to start. about there unce

self-interest to make sure that you have a peaceful and friendly europe and not a hostile europe. and that is exactly the lesson the second world war. the american leadership realized that it is not in america's interest to have a hostile europe. you need friends on the eastern shores of the atlantic ocean. that's also the case today, in my opinion. this is the reason why it is in interest tolf uphold and develop nato. host: the book is called "the world elite." and came out in september. anders rasmussen is the author. just a few minutes left. houston, texas. russell is up, a democrat. >> hello. host: go ahead. anders is,ion for nato protects the atlantic. is there any chance of a merger with the pacific fleet to form a global group? thank you. >> first of all, nato is a regional organization. according to the treaty, you can only accept european countries as members of nato, except of course, for the u.s. and canada in north america. when it comes to the pacific region, i think we should go in the other direction and in my book, i suggest that the u.s. president uses his conveni

europe is different. >> for the u.s. at least another answer entrenchment when it comes to globalization you think the lights avenue? that will allay fears of the white populist voters. >> there will be a lot of symbolism. if trump says okay i threatened whatever the mexicans or chinese and therefore they came to me and made a compromise, look i have protected you against global san diego that might be enough because we know that really it's not about global san diego it's much more. >> the problem with these parties the populace parties especially here in europe the leftist parties if you look at syria for example he hasn't delivered. trailing in the polls. spain never made it into the government. actually enacting a populist message is a lot more difficult than containing. >> economic populist message it's very difficult. it doesn't work in the past. overspending, retrenching towards one country does not work. they need to deliver the symbolism without damaging the economy. >> is there a sense that donald trump will ro

dominance was not good for europe. we are now talking about the threat of rising populism you mentioned it in france and other places. we also need to say that in the years between the banking crises from 2010 to 2015 it was quickly matched to german dominance. saying that merkel is only is wrong.leader also the refugee crisis, there was a huge amount of refugees, i was in favor of this. but it was also a german decision to take the refugees. on thenot consulted european the level, we made that is a german decision. and now we wonder why the other countries are not egalitarian and follow populism against the refugees. there are also consequences and causes. make it feelauses like merkel is the remaining leader, germany takes full responsibility. melinda: restraint and modesty are all very well. but the fact is, in the face of rising right-wing nationalist truly not think your country needs to get out for thed stand up values of your constitution and your rule of law represent? i hear all three of you saying, no. notdri

europe? 11 years in, german chancellor angela merkel is seen as a beacon of stability for the continent. we consider what might be on merkel's mind, should she run again. if she does not, where will that leave europe is to mark meanwhile, theresa may says u.k. companies have a responsibility to show how capitalism -- how capitalism can work for everyone and soften the troubles of those left behind by globalization. how britain's will navigate the world as they exit the european union. investors see a 50/50 chance of the euro falling to parity with the u.s. dollar in the next year. we bring you an analysis of what donald trump means for the market. first, we have a great interview for you this morning with has a mental lavrov so -- with jose manuel barosso. he is with manus cranny. manus: you are right. i have a former president of the e.u. welcome to bloomberg. and he for taking the time. taking theu for time. populism is on the rise. trump is set for the white house. we have had brexit. how

. >> and were in europe at the end of world war i. but just the logistics of that are astounding, realize in world war i erupted, the ka b-- and yt today we think of american indisspenceble in politics, but the beginning of world war i, and it was wood rrow wilson who achieved that transition. i heard in my lifetime that the united states doesn't go to war, basically develop a empire or to acquire territory that he go to war for principal for right. it was wood row wilson who was the first american president to enunciate that proposition. he had gone back 20 years earlier to the beginning, which was about taking over the colonies of dwindlings of spanish empire. wilson thought that going to war was about securing and enduring piece. and so this artillery showcasings here on the mantle, where he had it. i think it's fair to say that it was not a triumphant trophy. it was more reminder to him as the work yet undone. the creation of the league of nations had occurred. he was there nobel peace prize for 1919 it was established as a league

now, the politics of this are difficult in europe. and i think in fairness to some of the governments up north that i know are not always popular here in greece, it's important to recognize that they have their own politics and their populations and their institutions often are resistant to some of these debt relief formulas. but i think that having seen greece begin many of these difficult steps towards structural reform, having shown a commitment to change with the the greek people having endured some significant hardships for many years now, there should be an opportunity, i think, for both sides to recognize that if we can come up with a durable solution as opposed to each year or every six months having a new negotiation that that could potentially be good for everyone and now that the greek economy is growing again, the timing may be right. >> first question from white house reporter. anthony jerome. >> thank you, mr. president. a lot of people in europe are still struggling to understand what happened on november 8 in the unite

restored deterrence to europe. restored deterrence to europe. i think i see a strategic gap in europe between the limited steps that nato has taken so far and the more robust measures that need to be taken to restore security in europe. the source of this strategic app r -- g-- gap -- gap f--o mamanr many nap manymao understaunderstan understand t thr that hathat havp rt europep europeeuropean sec. to put it simply, nato's response so far has been too slow.pnato leadena ther them, wathem, wath pas if this iras if f facing in 2016. these new threats come in three different shapes and changes. these are changes in nato's geography, changes in technol>> littlittle time and understand we will sp we will see ww aggressive response and this is the map that most leaders are used to. we used to call the layered cake. you saw large deployment of nato troops from the united states and other nations in west germany. what you saw here is sort of the geographic temperament and view that nato leaders are trying to avoid. they do

this is the equity story across europe. the selloff in cities carries on and on as we head toward the tuesday poll in the united states. could be a fascinating day. equities continue to sell off. plenty of stories in the market this morning. let's delve into the details with nejra cehic. for stocks day overall, but a good day for the luxury sector. richemont 6% at the moment. although it has been struggling with plunging sales of watches and other goods, it has unveiled a sweeping overhaul of top management. the owner of cartier's to lose its ceo, cfo, and eight board members next year. the heads of another brand are going to get new board seats as well. one analyst called it a generational change. l'oreal also up 3.3%. shares soaring the most in almost seven months after revenue beat analyst estimates on rising demand for high-end brands in north america. l'oreal maintained its outlook for a stronger second half. one of the worst performers today is jc did go. this is partly on it having third-quarter adjusted organic reve

we need a more political europe, a more efficient europe, a europe more focused on strategic priorities that will give back everything else to state authorities. francine: this was an unexpected strong winds. how did he manage this come back when everyone was expecting it to be a sarkozy race? caroline: just like brexit, just like donald trump, european bowls have failed to predict this outcome. they have failed to anticipate that the french voters want a fresh face, a different personality than nicolas sarkozy. four months, the moderate has been the front-runner. a lot has changed. donald trump was elected. you have the candidacy of emmanuel macron. he will continue the fight. >> i have decided to continue the fight. for all those who believe in me, in my beliefs and the idea i have a france. i believe more than ever the people of france need to turn the page of a disastrous five years of presidency that has taken our country down, and to set up a roadblock to the national front, who want to sound us -- send us down the worst adventure. sarkozy -- [indiscernible] juppe ares of alain no

lead to a more fractured will thislead to a more fractured europe? >> the exit is the worst possible scenario. i believe honestly much worse for the u.k. than for the european union. >> is this the beginning of the end of the e.u.? >> there's no doubt, i have been warning about this many years the european union is in a state of disintegration. >> it is a monumental event in u.k. history breaking 40 years of integration into the e.u. project. >> this will not change fundamentally the special relationship between the united states and britain. >> it is a terrible outcome in all respects. it did not have to happen. francine: that was just the initial moment of europe's new reality. later in the program we will look at how the brexit story has played out since both economically and politically. in the year when uncertainty was the dominant theme we will retrace the roller coaster fortunes of oil market and look at volatility and instability in turkey. but coming up next, 2016 battered many european banks. our review continues. this is bloomberg. francin

i'll site your words, europe citizens want to know if europe's elites are capable of taking control of events and that go beyond them and terrify them. a few days later, in your state of the union address, you said you wanted a europe that protects european way of life and a europe that gives power to citizens. well, sir, let's measure your worth by your act. here, the french speaking belg belgians are trying to remove the course of removing rights from our citizens. there needs to be a clear decision about which services are public and which ought to be private. now, i think it's very important, also, to refer to conflicts between the treaty and european justice. will this take time? yes, it will take time. democracy takes time. we have traded with canada for centuries without satyr, so i don't think a few extra months will be so decisive. the rejection should not put an end to europe's trade policy. rather rather, it should give us a way to look at it. we need to ensure it's not just a question of maximizing the flows because that's not necessarily compatible with the environment. it

and the basis of that has been peace in europe. the two greatest world's that the wars in world history began in europe. and establishing nato shortly after world war ii provided the basis for building a global stability system, and that was a path to global prosperity. i'm telling you this because our interests are in maintaining that. that is the vital interest of every american. and right now we have the world's second greatest military power with one of the world's largest economies changing borders in europe by force. explicitly saying he wants to upend that security order. that is a vital threat to our interests. and part of the confusion in washington and globally on this is because we have a president who claimed that the crisis in europe was a regional crisis. he just didn't get it. now, one of the reasons he didn't get it is because his predecessor had us engaging in the middle east in ways were beyond our capacity. in that way i'm sympathetic, that we can do everything we might want to do. but we have a vital interest in

damien: hello, and welcome to "focus on europe." i'm damien mcguinness. great you could join us today, in a week when europe is nervous about so many issues including growing tensions between the west and russia. in kaliningrad, russia is showing off its power. more war ships are being moored here. but russians themselves are thrilled. this woman says it's important that other countries see our strength. building up arms is important, so that people are afraid of us. but more of that later. at the moment in europe we hear a lot in the news about anti-migrant protestors who don't want their countries to take in asylum seekers. but we hear a lot less about the people who are helping. people like jorgos maniatis. he decided he couldn't stand by any longer and watch as refugees arrived in his home country of greece, only to find themselves on the streets, with nowhere to live. the problem for greece of course is that it's still trying to recover from the financial crisis. so the authorities there are finding it hard enough to help greek people, let alone supp

a more stable europe. and for this woodrow wilson came in for much of the blame. the russians tended to argue that the problem with the paris peace conference was that all of these countries on the board got to have their say. so what ended up happening was a conference of compromises. as stalin himself said at potsdam, states are not virtuous merely because they are small. so at potsdam none of these states will be represented. much to france's chagrin, italy's chagrin. the polls will be allowed to send two delegations, they argue with each other, nobody particularly listens to them, winston churchill in fact says i don't want to talk to the polls. i'm sick of the polls, he says. the same issues as i noted remained. if woodrow wilson, david louis george they would have recognized everything with one exception, and i'll come to that exception in just a bit. the exact same issues are under debate. one, what to do with germany. two, what to do about reparations, which is a very tricky subject. somebody has t

president obama has said elwell to europe after his final tour of the continent. before saying goodbye to his post, chancellor merkel, and the human, he made europeans anxious. meanwhile, washington is bracing for some bruising presidential battles. the president-elect has picked a number of republican hardliners for the top jobs. now back to business news. a huge story in germany, those of us who thought the dieselgate scandal was over, we were wrong. >> is not over and still has consequences for employees. everyone knew it was coming. it was just a matter of time. volkswagen just announced it would cut up to 30,000 jobs. a move of this scale is unprecedented. the savings plan is a desperate attempt to recover from the famous dieselgate scandal. >> a great step forward is how volkswagen management described its plans for the future. it was negotiated within the german carmaker for months. now the direction is clear -- vw workers will bear the burden of the plans which will cost jobs. the pact for the future is the biggest reform program in our company's history.

europe's focus turns to a series . whereot a charge tracking the next populist breakthrough might be. this is bloomberg. vonnie: it is time now for our global battle of the charts. we are taking a look at some of the most telling charts of the day. you can run the function featured at the bottom of your screen. kicking these off is bloomberg stoxx reporter, dani burger. >> i have been looking at one group of investors that does not like the rally, that is the bears. they have the most people experience in the most four years -- in the last four years. i have the goldman sachs basket and look what happened over this past week during this postelection rally. on the bottom i have the one week rate of change. at the bottom, this is a 10% increase. these heavily shorted stocks fall -- saw that last week. too happy,ot although other investors might be happy about this rally. #bcb.n look at that at g, vonnie: mark barton, beat that. if you want simplicity, i like to go for multi-lines and multi-colors, but i am keeping it sim

we already employ 3000 people in europe and have 100 aircrafts in europe. this will be a technical airline operations it to forget. we will have an operating company in the eu, but as i said, no change to our headquarters in luton. no change to those we employ in the u.k., in fact we are growing. yousef: we understood you met with david davis. could you give us a sense of what was discussed, and whether any promises were made along the lines of the promises that were made to nissan? >> well, it was a private meeting which i attended, as did many of my peers in the aviation industry. it was cross sector, not just airlines. and we were able to represent the issues but also the opportunities for aviation going forward in our relationship with europe. it was a very positive meeting, and i think david davis was very much in listening and i think david davis was very much in listening mode. anna: what sense did you get reachwhat is within his to deliver? to say it was a private meeting, but we did get a press release saying that market access remains a top priori

we've never had an army in europe. at the beginning of world war i, united states was tied for the 13th largest military in the world, tied with serbia and greece. by the end of world war i, we had 4 million men in uniform, having gone from 200,000 to 4 million and fully half of them, 2 million service personnel were in europe at the end of world war i. so just the logistics of that are astounding. realize that when world war i erupted, the combatants weren't even concerned about america's role. yet today we think of america as an indispensable power in world politics. at the beginning of world war i, we really were an afterthought and it was woodrow wilson who achieved that transition. i've heard presidents of both political parties say in my lifetime that the united states doesn't go to war basically to build an empire or acquire territory, we go to war for principle, for right. it was really woodrow wilson who was the first american president to enunciate that proposition. i need only guide you back 20 years earlier

>> europe and middle east to that also. i think what he's looking for is saying if we're going to be allies, he's saying in public what was traditionally not said is stop of fact he elevated that burden sharing argument, that if you're not paying your fair share we're not going help you. that's his basic argument. i think europeans also have to assume more responsibility. when you have less than a handful of countries in nato actually spending their generally 2% of their budget on defense that's a big problem. he's elevating that to the next level. in terms of russia if we look at the middle east, obama's inaction in syria has created a void that russia is filling. what will he do in the middle east? he's not given up on the middle east but in terms of syria he says for the most part -- it's as if there's a victory for russia and the syrian regime. >> it was a 2.5 minute youtube video. the press was not invited. i had team put it out. and besides trade he made some calls for action on immigration, energy, national security

the -- europe just to blame for the slowdown of the academy? -- economy? >> so far it is driven by fiscal policy and it is urgently needed that the state reform economies so they become more effective and efficient and competitive. heather: this comes into the firing line, why is the bond buying program no longer justified in your opinion? it has an effect on the whole eurozone. >> with medicine, the dosage is key. we think that looking at inflation broadly and modern policies, it brings risks. risks for the banking system and financial stability, because there are more risks building up in the banks, given the long term. and the other issues governments are getting used to getting cheap funding. the ecb is buying government bonds so they do not reform or consolidate. in the long run you need to bring down debt in order to get sustainable growth. heather: let's look domestically. you have called for economic reform in germany. and the chancellor has said, there is always time for reform. what do you want to see the government do? >> germany sho

over one million fleeing war and poverty for europe. many never made it, and the deaths mounted and fences went up. the eu was plunged into crisis. this was a fix of sorts, a deal with turkey last march to deport some back here. mainly pakistanis have been sent back so far. along with border closures in the balkans, it stemmed the flow. but now turkey's president has hit out at europe, threatening to undo the deal and send migrants back. president erdogan: you have said in the past, what will we do if turkey opens the borders? well, if you go any further, those border gates will be open. mark: the parliament vote was nonbinding and eu leaders are unlikely to heed it. fearful of alienating a vital ally. but there is anger in brussels over what some see as blackmail by mr. erdogan. freedom, no democracy. should the eu negotiate with countries that are not democracies anymore? my answer is no. mark: turkey hosts 3 million migrants, but many are integrated and will stay for others, the dream of europe is still there. >> if the borders are o

plans for missile defense in europe. the -- it was previously stated that this was to protect europe from an iranian nuclear missile. as that potentiality seems increasingly unlikely and as tensions with russia continue to escalate, there are some murm plerrings these sites should be reconfigured to make them applicable to a russian missile strike. however, the current plans wouldn't be able to protect from an intermediate continental ballistic missile, only an intermediate range missile. we have plans we're saying are to protect against iran from a varnishing iranian threat. we have a russian threat. are we not acknowledging that it's to protect russia for diplomatic reasons or is this is basically a solve to our european nato partners? if it's a solve, could there be a better way to reassure them than these missile defense sites that haven't yet proven their capability? >> i'll let the general respond to those three questions about the level and degree of response, perhaps military response, the role of china and the l

and in europe. yield up in the u.s., down in europe. this is bloomberg. ♪ . . live from london and new york, this is the european close. stocks finishing the day in european trading. let's take you through all of the market action today. i have to say there has been less action than normal with volume down below the 30-the average. we have still seen some movement on the left. on the left, i had across dr. western europe. smi up 1.1%. gains in denmark, belgium, luxembourg as well. it is a weaker dollar story. the index falling from a decade-high, meaning we are seeing a stronger euro .4%. the swiss franc pushing higher. sterling pretty much unchanged today. in fixed income space, a different picture. we are seeing the 10-year yield in the u.s. move higher. in europe, we are seeing most of the yields move lower. germany down two basis points. we have seen the 10-year go down. portugal down six basis points. we are seeing moves lower elsewhere in the periphery. focusmodities, a lot of on oil with more doubt about the opec deal being reached on november 30. 47.e d

forecast. >> in europe, i agree. europe is still much further behind in the business cycle and upside into 2017. so, i think there, your comment is correct. in the u.s., we will see this continuing pressure. >> bob, thanks so much for coming in. global chief from the conference board could look at the french pmi and services pmi, 51.4. the forecast was 52.1. it's easier than the market was looking for. >> the october final services, pmi 54.2. the september final 50.9. gerrje is europe back and have the european central bank spotted it? >> we have to wrap up the program. michael, a pleasure having you on. michael brown, thank you for tuning into the "squawk box" this week. stay with the programming, it continues. >>> good morning. it's jobs friday. we'll talk expectations and what the number could mean for the markets, the fed and even the presidential election. >>> earnings central, starbucks shares rising on better than expected quarterly results. >>> a move to hollywood. dalian is buying dick clark productions. the

you had a lot of trade, especially in europe. he would a lot of people traveling around without passports. this is the kind of situation we could theoretically get into some clash on that side. the first step would be a trade war, which we really do not want. matt: so, simon, howard traders prepared for this? are they hedged for this kind of action? >> i don't think you can head yourself for this kind of action. -- i don't think you can hedge yourself for this kind of action. we saw german exporters to russia taking the first brunt of the spillover from the depreciation affect. they have to take the brunt. it is very difficult to hedge yourself in the fx universe. matt: aside from a survey, you cannot see anybody putting their money where their mouth is to say, we think donald trump will slap tarrifs on, resulting in a depreciation, you can't measure that by market action? >> i think as we go forward, we will see more and more leaks out of the trump team. we had this talk about the 100 day, 200 day plan. at the end of that, mr. t

and vladimir's dividing europe because -- and vladimir is dividing europe. is dividingputin europe. needs -- it needs the certainty of support from the united states both militarily and politically. there is a question whether donald trump will supply that given what he said on the campaign trail. jon: that is nicholas burns of the kennedy school of harvard. hows another example of difficult it is to get a read on european politics. it was meant to be a la japan -- alan juppe all along. they got it dead wrong. david: the one thing you can predict is the polls are wrong. but angela merkel is trying to be the ballast, the study one, as she has been throughout her career. vote againstis a the establishment, she is very much the establishment in germany. school -- aess columbia business school professor joins us next. in the markets, about two hours and four minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm alix steel. here's what you need to know. the dollar weakens. commodities get a boost. opec will agree to cut output. political risk in europe. the former

of growth and inflation could increase also in europe. that case, it would be a normal thing to happen. matt: one of the results of the u.s. election has been a strong dollar. the euro last week had 10 consecutive days of declined and jean-claude trichet a mentioned he did not to bed -- did not like to see these violent moves. and does therned strength of the dollar handle your ability to be accommodated? central bankers in general don't like and that is still true today, abrupt movements. the exchange rate is not a target of our policies, so it is the market. it has consequences, of course, but it is not our target. i would be more concerned of the development in emerging countries and deceleration of growth they're which will affect world trade. mark: that was the ecb vice president. we are headed to the close, four minutes from the end of this thursday equity session. stocks are up today. have a look at the currency orders. it is a quiet day. the thanksgiving holiday, sterling is up against the dollar and the euro is up against the pou