your bloomberg treasury. back to 1988. that is the bottom panel. great to have you back on the program. >> if philosophical debate about whether we're seeing equities into bonds or where they are line to go, 3% as the last of this thing. >> i have been hearing a lot of this. we have not seen a lot of that. about the 2.6%lk yield. wheneverdefinitely there is uncertainty people would like to go to the bond. i think what people are saying is people are uncertain about where the future is going and in the u.s. economy. i think a lot of this has been going into those kind of bonds to protect. there is also we are seeing the market and equity market getting profits off the table. will discontinue i am not sure. sincek the trend now is 2008 and 2009 i don't think that is going to stop. what is going to change is the pricing of those order to justifying the risk and reward. >> most people would say 2-3 hikes suggest the same thing. where do you stand? >> we believe three is most probable at the moment. administration are not comfortable in paying that u.s. debt. they hinted before when

bottom panel, that is your crude price. i want to point out that libya is exempt from this agreement. the thinking was that the two countries are facing unrest and as a result they don't have to take part in the production cut. if the libyan rebound continues it could possibly derail the ambitious plans g opec and non-opec have. oil, we haveout bets from traders thinking that in new york and london it would converge at some point in december of 2018. 'sw with this talk of trump border tax that could diverge. take a look. those bets are falling. the end of this year. given that we have a republican congress that could move in favor of u.s. produced taxes, gaining over a brand when it comes to prices because of tariffs. atare seeing the trading three dollars a barrel. interesting tois keep an eye on, will prices converge or will they not? we are two hours away from the opening of trade. yousef: we will have plenty to look forward to and reflect on in this part of the world. it has been a fascinating trading day. the oil price playing into sentiment. the dow was up 1%. you have telcos,

gets sector energy to bes. exxon, chevron, halliburton, the whole thing. the bottom panel's relative performance to the s&p 500 which it as part. the energy stocks have continued higher almost for the past 12 months. and even as they're making new highs here at the end of last year, their relative performance peaked in april. so that despite being the best-performing sector on the year, all those results were generated january, february, march, april. if you weren't in early, you didn't outperform the market, having picked energy as a bet. okay, etf xle. you can draw this any way you want. some would say it's a head and shoulders bottom, surely is. something on the shoulder here, you might call that a neckline. what we know is those are very precise lines. the level from which it broke out -- what we're thinking is at a minimum it's going to check back to the apex here. and/or just continue to do this. that there's no great life. so we're going to bet this is going nowhere. right call, sell puts, do something. if you're long, don't expect much. >> mike's got a trade. >> that's right.

return and the s&p 500 total return index all the way back to 1988. that is the bottom panel. that is your positive and negative correlation. great to have you back on the program. debate a philosophical over whether we are seeing a great rotation out of equities and into bonds. they're saying 3% is the last line in the sand. what is your view on this? >> i've been hearing a lot of this. we have not seen that. they are talking about international markets. there talking about the 2.6% yield. what we should see is that whenever there is uncertainty, people want to go to more secure. that'sople are saying what this is saying to me is that people are uncertain about where the future is going. especially in the u.s. economy. a lot of this has been going into those kind of funds in order to protect. you have to remember, we are talking about record markets and equity markets. will discontinue, i am not sure at the moment because the trains 2009, thate 2008 and is not going to stop. what is going to change is the for those in order to justify the kind of risk and reward that will happen.

in momentum recently. this is the top panel with the price action. the bottom panel shows momentum and there is certainly momentum burning -- building up, but it is not as robust as it was in 2001, coming here to when the dollar index also moved up or back in the 80's, when the dollar index was about 150 and the momentum was really robust. we have not gotten there yet. you want totimes see momentum measures, sometimes , but it may show that animal spirit looking back at these other peaks here. i'm look at where and -- looking at her animal spirits are starting to build up. this is capex for the s&p 500 companies with showing what has been doing and what has already looking at what analysts are expecting for those companies going forward. they believed to see the peak that they hit in 2015. the first one is a yes, it has come down a little bit, but the relative history is still high with companies not spending on expenditures and that's not really accurate. what happens is it has slowed down. here it is showing that there is a pickup that is a big deal. companies do feel better abou

to the downside has been. the bottom panel, no surprise that the limited decline of that side is meant that the vix has held a near 2.5 year low. he does not show any kind of stress that you might anticipate given all the uncertainty. joe: it really is unbelievable. it is surprising enough that everybody got it wrong that the market has done this well since the election. but the fact that is not been one day of any real selloff. given all the things that could have come up, that not a single day. lots of singles stocks, lots of sectors have done poorly. what is extraordinary how stable the headline numbers have become. back in 2008 -- easy to forget how wild that time was. i am looking at emerging markets. we have another chart. this is eem. , since theer here election it took a really big tumble. there was a strong dollar concern about global trade. it tumbled hard that it bounced back. it is been on a nice rally but there is a cross forming with the 50 day mike ross below the 200. something that the people might want to keep an eye on. theoretically that could be good for em. a

bottom panel is a spread between the two. it is the widest in 15 years. we have seen wild swings, relentless pressure, unexpected moves in the offshore yen, equities is yawn. why so much complacency? >> you do not have to worry about any of the fundamentals. everything has risen in the u.s.. if you look at what has happened, a lot of fun -- volatility is going on. have worries next year about half oftion in france the emerging markets are still coming out of the recession. a lot of volatility. >> trump takes care of u.s. equities but nothing else falls under that umbrella. everything else is a world of chaos. >> to some extent, i think that is definitely true. >> the correlation between treasuries and financials and right after the election, we saw financial stocks shoot up because of course, when rates go up, the banks are expected to make more money. there is the expectation banks will do well under trump, but as you can see, and that does not show up for a well, you can see they have diverse lately. interest rates have pulled it back to levels we have not since his november. f

bottom panel. it has worked like clockwork in the last couple of years. joe: something to keep an eye on in case that goes red. scarlet: i'm looking at a chart about china. the first one was sent to me at the spokes investment group. it looks at year-over-year .hange commodity prices have a big influence on total dollar volumes of imports. china a big consumer of commodities and when consumer numbers go up so will chinese import numbers. they can also work in the other direction. finally, i want to look at one aboutchart sent to us macro risk solutions. the fuchsia line is an inversion chinesehina-you on -- yuan weakens and the chinese economy picks up and when the you want strengthens -- yuan weakens the economy goes down. he really does have an effect -- currencyreally affects -- the economy. scarlet: wells fargo plans to close over 400 branches in the next four years as it tries to trim costs. chiefg us is the financial officer. i look to get straight to the impact from the fraudulent account problems. much of a fallout from the fraudulent account opening. how far out will we see t

being the red line. it's made its way back. the bottom panel shows the valuations of it. analysts heaper, as revised up their earnings expectations for the next four quarters. that's because of a weaker currency. do you touch mexican equities right now? guest: we do. this patent is actually very similar to the u.k. -- pattern is very similar to the u.k. if you deval enough, yurek which es go up in local currency terms and go down in dollar terms. it's just an impact to the devaluation. the fact that they're cheaper on p.e., that's the thing to take away. scarlet: it's cheaper on p.e. and the currency helps it. but is that reason to be more enthusiastic about the company? whether you're buying debt or equity, do you -- has your outlooked improved? guest: not if you're spending dollars. it's the value of the dividends they pay. it's the value what have you sell it for in dollars that's going to matter. it's the only reason the price is high, because the peso is cheap. that's not a reason for a dollar-based investor to buy mexican or british stocks. joe: i want to talk about europe q

we go on to college enrollment. the left hand panel is enrollment by family income on the bottom and the highest to the right, the right hand panel's enrollment, the left hand panel is completion. the dark dashed line is essentially the behavior of those students who are making college going choices in the '80s. the lighter blue line is the students making college choices at the beginning of the 21st century. the takeaways from these, if you're in the back, first off there's a positive gradient and second the gaps have widened and they have widened quite markedly over time. we have about a 30 percentage point difference in enrollment rates. there's not much you're going to push up that enrollment rate. a 10% increase at the bottom which is the increase at the top of this distribution between the top and the bottom. one might rightly note these are not adjusted for differences in achievement on entry. again, if you do this additional calculation, you'd still see very large gaps and they've increased over time. on the order of about 16 percentage points in college completion. that's th

quartile on the bottom, the highest quartile to the right, the right-hand panel is enrollment, the left-hand panel is completion, the dark dashed line is essentially the behavior of those students who were making college going choices in the '80s. the lighter blue line is students making college choices at the beginning of the 21st century. and the takeaway is from these, even if you're in the back, are, first off, there is a positive gradient. second, the gaps have widened and they widen really quite markedly over time. so we have got about a 30 percentage point difference in enrollment rates, not much more you're going to push up that enrollment rate in the top quarter quartile. and an increase at the bottom, about the increase at the top of this distribution between the top and the bottom. now, one might rightly note these are not adjusted for differences in achievement on entry. again, if you do this additional calculation, you still see very large gaps and they have increased over time. so on the order of about 16 percentage points in college completion. okay, that's the preliminar

australia. libertarians scored just higher than a baboon's bottom. rich you are the conservative on the panel. they say if you are good looking, you perceive yourself as such and you are stingy with your money. >> it seems a stretch. you are good looking, there are you are more successful and you don't care about quality. and because you are so good look you get elected. this didn't work for mitt romney i'll point out. but we do elect by and large good-looking presidents. our colleague bret baier just wrote a book about dwight eisenhower. could he win in this day and age? probably not. kennedy: i was joking about libertarians, but where do they fall on the scale? gary johnson -- >> i feel like america's view of libertarian is shaped by the freedom dog strap that happened at the crucial moment of the libertarian convention. kennedy: kept off the presidential debate stage. >> it would confound the finding that republicanness and wealthiness and attractiveness are so closely intertwined. they just say correlation. it's correlation, not causation. you are super hot. >> i think john thune is

going to discuss and get to the bottom of it with our panel next. hey, ready for the big meeting? yeah. >>uh, hello!? a meeting? it's a big one. too bad. we are double booked: diarrhea and abdominal pain. why don't you start without me? oh. yeah. if you're living with frequent, unpredictable diarrhea and abdominal pain, you may have irritable bowel syndrome with diarrhea, or ibs-d. a condition that can be really frustrating. talk to your doctor about viberzi, a different way to treat ibs-d. viberzi is a prescription medication you take every day that helps proactively manage both diarrhea and abdominal pain at the same time. so you stay ahead of your symptoms. viberzi can cause new or worsening abdominal pain. do not take viberzi if you have or may have had: pancreas or severe liver problems, problems with alcohol abuse, long-lasting or severe constipation, or a blockage of your bowel or gallbladder. if you are taking viberzi, you should not take medicines that cause constipation. the most common side effects of viberzi include constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain. stay ahead

have two lefties claiming to reopen. we are going to get to the bottom of this. joined by our bay area insider panel, legal analyst and former san francisco chronical columnist, let's start with the legal side of this. michael, what does either one of these sides have to prove that they own lefties and the name and everything that goes with it. >> before we get there, i think you should know they have hired a pr firm to put information out. when i read that, i read it with a grain of salt. the other side, the tenants also are putting p r releases out. >> you got to watch both sides. the issue, like you say, is who owns the name lefty. who owns the memorabilia. they say they leased to lefty gomez not just the property, but the bar and the restaurant. now, i can tell you in san francisco that's not how it's done usually. you are a landlord. you rent space to somebody. i went space to him, he puts his bar in. so i'm a little suspect of that. legally the contract, the lease will control in the end. >> reporter: jeff, just yesterday, these two sides, oh, this is going to be an easy bre

panel here with the histogram, you can see that is the pattern of passengers every month. at the bottom, the chart is the year on year changes. the growthte see how is not quite as aggressive as it used to be. what helps you to unlock that to make that next job to get back to the kind of ambitious numbers that you have been keen on sticking with? mostly, it will be expansion of facilities, increase in passenger flows, and increase of service. something like 48% of our traffic could use an alternate hub. we are investing very heavily not just in capacity expansion but in the quality of service that our customers receive when they come through dubai international. long-term, investment in airport expansion will be a big factor. this year, by the end of q3, we will have expended the capacity -- expanded the capacity to something around the 26 million mark. there is major headroom for expansion there, and that is of course before we get to stage two, which is essential by the next decade. can you give us a break down of the spending. how much will be debt and how much will be funded

. >> to put this in context, our viewers and clients can pull this up under bloomberg. on the top panel here, you can see those are the passenger figures as they come in every month. at the bottom, that chart is urine year. you can quite see how the growth is not as aggressive as it used to be. what is going to help you unlock that to make that next jump to get back to the china kinds of and vicious -- kinds of ambitious numbers you are keen on sticking with? >> mostly it will be improvement of facilities improvement of us and your flow and improvement in level of service. like 48% of our traffic could use an alternate have. we are investing very heavily not just in capacity expansion but in the quality of service that our customers receive when they come through divine international but investments in airport expansion will be a major factor. by the end of q3, we will have extended the capacity at dubai world central from the 7 million passengers to something around the 26 million mark. there is major headroom for expansion which is before we get to stage two. >> can you give us a brea

mentioned in the report. i haven't heard any democrats mention that, if you get this panel, should she be subpoenaed on that question? >> is a bipartisan effort. republicans and democrats want to get the bottom of the truth. this is about making sure our elections belong to us. the committee should have a wide scope and looking at what russia did to try and undermined our election. i'm not going to prejudge the results. >> tucker: two points. you say replicants have signed on to this? >> i continue to reach out to republicans. the commission would be a bipartisan appointed. it would be republican and democrat appointed. i still believe that republicans accept that we were hacked. john mccain held a hearing yesterday accepting that. i would like to take this out of congress, have members fully devote themselves to finding out once and for what happened because after all, the president-elect doesn't even accept that russia attacked our elections. this gun can i you there? there's something very disingenuous about you continuing to say you want to take this out of the political world.

congress kept ethics panel in place. there's many time it can be effective and we're use it in that way. >> it comes back to having impact. bottom line continue to tweet. we we'll see where it goes interest there. how long are you with staffing the white house? >> i think we're in place right now to -- we're moving at lightening pace. the staffing and wlohite house moving along. we have diagnose going to have place all the operation, inner government affairs, sean spicer is the press secretary people are going to be amaze by home people will be hired. we'll have a couple more waves coming yet before the 20th and those are not going to be rolled out in sequence very soon. >>> are you going to dallas next sunday or not? >> i doubt it. i know how things are going to be and i'll be somewhere in washington working if i can turn the sound on the tv and watch the game that would be great. otherwise i'll be at my office. >> nice to see you, hope you come back. >> i will. by the way congratulations on your first day on msnbc. >> thank you. >> many glblessing to us. >>> president obama prepar

the bottom of my heart, thank you. so which we say thank you, michelle. >>> still another year, another record high for temperatures on earth. >>> former texas governor rick perry goes before a senate panel today and he has to explain how he plans to run an agency that he once wanted to get rid of. we'll have a preview. the lexus rx, rx hybrid and rx f sport. this is the rx...elevated. get up to $5,000 customer cash on select 2016 models. see your lexus dealer. >>> all right. bill karins, take it away with the weather report. what's out there? >> we'll start with the climate news yesterday. noaa came out said 2016 edged out 2015 for the warmest global average temperature. this is the map that they included with that. the key here is when you get the ample temperatures it's in the gray. the warmer than average shows you the tannish color and the reddish color and you notice how much of the globe, this includes the land and ocean temperatures average compared to the baseline, and notice the continents, just north of australia was exceptionally warm and we were warmer than average

. >> reporter: retired neurosurgeon and former presidential can tait ben carson made case before senate panel yes should be the next, housing and urban development. >> i have been very fortunate to be able to move from the bottom rung of the social economic level to the top rung >> reporter: carson testified that growing up poor he necessary how housing and security firsthand. if confirmed ben carson would oversee an agency that not only helps poor but underwrites mortgage loans for hid will class. >>> today president-elect trump hired former new york city mayor rudy julian toy lead a cyber security commit thee for the new administration. trump says it is a top priority following russia's interference in the the 2016 election. yesterday, trump accused u.s. intelligence agencies of leaking unverified reports that claim russia had compromising information on him. james clapper, director of the that the intelligence vested regret, but insisted that the leak to not come there the intelligence community. >>> just eight days away from inauguration day when donald trump will take oath of office keep

terminal, the top panel to speak to that relationship, the top panel looks at the correlation between high yield, t.f.'s here, bottom is the l.t.d., investment fwrade versus s&p. they've both come town here a little bit in terms of how strongly correlated they are to the s&p 500. that's in part because of the trade and also because of the higher rate narrative for next year has been the core of the investment thesis. so how do we expect to see this play out as people start to, i guess, kind of regear and find out what policies are going to bring the inflation? nicholas: it's been the theme not only on income but equities. the market wants to see an acceleration of news flow about infrastructure spend, those tax cults we're expecting, we haven't had much of that this year. that's why we've seen this pullback in yields and equity levels from a couple of days ago. this is the missing piece of this puzzle. the 10-year is a keystone asset behind this entire market. >> what's the risk we go back to risk on, risk off again? nicholas. for the near term, not very high. we have new fundamentals shap

are, quote, a lot of bad dudes out there, end quote. lots to discuss with the panel. david french, let me start with you. you think the executive actions were reasonable though poorly implemented and the media and others are being hysterical. >> what we're looking at, bottom line, is three-month delay in processing entries from seven countries that the obama had identified as particularly problematic. a four-month pause in refugee admissions. then returning those numbers to roughly slightly more than the average bush era admission levels. and then providing some privileges to members of religious minorities in the refugee resettlement process. all of that is not all that radical. and in fact, given the rise in the number of islamic terrorist pilots and the problems we've seen in europe, pushing the pause button for a little while makes a lot of sense. what did not make sense was applying this to green card holders. translators and interpreters who sacrificed for americans overseas and applying it to people already in transit who had already jumped through the lawful hoops. that's

a smart panel today. i appreciate both of -- >> jeremy is smart. >> we're smart across the board. andrea, let me start quickly, nbc news obtained a draft of this dissent right now. the bottom line is that hundreds of foreign service officers say the ban is in their words quote, it will increase anti-american sentiment. broadly speaking, what are you hearing right now and the uniqueness of this moment is within this administration already there's a big outcry taking place. >> there is. and this is a procedure, a practice, at the state department. it is to protect people who want to speak out. it is normalized process once used against hillary clinton in fact. very striking. it's like a slap in the face of a secretary of state, but the this is a dissent memo that is being circulated and signed by many foreign service officers against the executive order, against the refugee ban. and sean spicer, i think not understanding the weight of this as it is incapsulated among foreign service officers. it's part of their legal right. >> get with the program or you can go. >> in a very dramat

universities. president david duley of the university of rhode island had invited me to join a panel that he moderated with, among others, dr. john nielson gammutt, texas' state climatologist and also a professor at texas a&m university. the bottom line was simple -- climate change is real, and the scientists at our universities will be increasingly forced to defend good science, academic freedom and climate action. university leadership will have to defend their scientists against the onsalute of foia requests and personal attacks that are the modus operandi of phony science fronts propped up by the fossil fuel science fuel industry to spread calculated misinformation. the american scientific community faces a real threat from that operation. on to pennsylvania, i had the opportunity to spend a day traveling with my friend and colleague, bob casey, around southeastern pennsylvania, getting a firsthand look at the effects of climate change and hearing about the work pennsylvanians are doing to address it. at university of pennsylvania's morris ash read up, leaders from the moms clean air for

investigation. a panel which will have the power to compel witnesses and documents and they can choose to hold some of their proceedings, maybe all of their proceedings in public, if they like. sinn fein‘s bottom line remains this. arlene foster must temporarily stand—down as first minister while this investigation takes place police for a few weeks until there has been a report. that is the crux of this crisis. 0ne report. that is the crux of this crisis. one half of this sinn fein say that arlene foster should stand aside. arlene foster‘s party say she has no intention to develop. it is ha rd to has no intention to develop. it is hard to see how will be resolved. there been various crisis points in this relationship. how biggest this one? well, there have been numerous crisis throughout nine or ten years of devolved government where the two party took been power—sharing is. what makes this different is it is all about arlene foster‘s position at first minister. parties talk tough, maximising the political benefits they get, but they still give themselves enough wiggl

less systemic issues like the justice with the blue ribbon panel tsf appoint this but as supervisor cowen mentioned it is the strangle 40e8d of the pee pee on 3r67b9 reform how - i know explicit bias is one thing from top level top to bottom how do we crack this as our intern toney chaplin has had that position how would you as a police commissioner to mayor ed lee er toney chaplin 0 whoever is addressing that as a systemic and not addressing the systemic problems. >> i did a panel let me not tribute him before i get myself in trouble there's been a bad other than that of policing and everything something goes wrong oh, he's a bad apple but people will acknowledge it is usual not a bad apple by the a but a bad barrel of the culture of the department always be rogue officers but a culture within the department one of the things commissioner president commissioner president loftus sighting to the president 21st century policing report that said you can have the best policies in the world but culture policies need to be launched everyday that is summarizes the ideas of culture if we're

focused on less systemic issues like the justice with the blue ribbon panel tsf appoint this but as supervisor cowen mentioned it is the strangle 40e8d of the pee pee on 3r67b9 reform how - i know explicit bias is one thing from top level top to bottom how do we crack this as our intern toney chaplin has had that position how would you as a police commissioner to mayor ed lee er toney chaplin 0 whoever is addressing that as a systemic and not addressing the systemic problems. >> i did a panel let me not tribute him before i get myself in trouble there's been a bad other than that of policing and everything something goes wrong oh, he's a bad apple but people will acknowledge it is usual not a bad apple by the a but a bad barrel of the culture of the department always be rogue officers but a culture within the department one of the things commissioner president commissioner president loftus sighting to the president 21st century policing report that said you can have the best policies in the world but culture policies need to be launched everyday that is summarizes the ideas of cultu