across europe if we're going to get the economic growth we're all looking for. >> ubs has beat expectations. carolyn is in zurich. at the same time being penalized if you're holding cash. it's a problem. >> reporter: it is a huge problem, julia. it's a problem that's not going to go away very soon. ubs sounds like a broken record and that's no criticism of him. every quarter he speaks about a very difficult environment. he saying 2014, 2015 was tough for the world's biggest wealth manager and then they got into 2016 and that seems to be even tougher it seems because clients are still not active when it comes to buying products. ubs doesn't want to push them into products either. they want to keep the profitability high. volatility when we see for example after brexit it also detear s clients from tradin the gross margin even though the company doesn't want to look at it, it has also declined somewhat. despite that inflows have held up. 2.4 in wealth management americas, but coming back to the future, tells me it's not looking too rose si. >> the reality is the future and the fr

, financials. ubs in switzerland higher to the tune of 1.4%. same for credit suisse group. once again, it's also the insurers which are benefitting from this boost in sentiment, primarily because people say the boj has been targeting the banks, trying to help them out through the steepening of the yield curve. there are two stocks not benefiting, one is deutsche bank down 0.2%. completely different issues. that's all about litigation. but once again, it seems as though, as jpmorgan and many other banks pointed out in a note on the back of the boj this is about the banks. this is about improving profit margins, net interest margins, because they suffered so much from the negative interest rate scenario and low interest rates overall. this is not about the yen necessarily, it's about profits at the banks. i don't know if you agree with that. >> in part. but i also think it has to do with the yen and whether or not these measures will help to drive yen depreciation or drive a strong yen. there's a piece talking about how the new normal has changed. they argue that ten years ago it would

that doesn't suit me at all. carolin is at the ubs conference in london. a lot of people are to concussion on italy and what happens if it's a no vote. >> reporter: yeah. a lot of people say this is the big next risk event for europe. we're joined by cod vislorenzaoo visiting professve -- professor. >>> the immediate reaction that we have seen is that in northern italy the far right movement is actually taking a stance and some local alliances with the italian communist party collapsed. and that could be the only thing is who is the underdog. the prime minister is isolated. he looks like he's fighting this battle alone and he might be perceived as the kind of the anti-establishment person oddly enough and so you never know. i think it's very difficult to predict the outcome. >> reporter: that's a real interesting point who is the establishment or who is anti-establishment at this point. we've seen widening in bond spread they wideened to 180 basis points because there's so much nervousness around this italian referendum. it could be considered as the next shoe to drop after brex

housing market is overheating so says ubs. find out which city topped it's bubble risk list. i got a feeling we live in a bubble city. >> i know that feeling. see you in a second. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your business to sprint and save 50% on most current verizon, at&t and t-mobile rates. don't let a 1% difference cost you twice as much. whoooo! for people with hearing loss, visit sprintrelay.com. >>> welcome back to the show. saudi arabia's oil minister says the algeria producer meeting is consultative. he said although the recovery was slower than expected he remained optimistic on the oil market. let's go back out to hadley who is standing by in algeria. optimism means we'll get a deal out of algeria? >> caller: . >> reporter: we've heard speculation over the last couple

and the nikkei hits a seven-week low. >>> shares in peugeot in reverse. ubs calling the margin guidance conservative. >>> and more than $20 billion wiped off the value of allergan on fears that new tax inversion rules could scuffle the tie-up with pfizer. >>> hi, everybody. welcome to the show. we've got some data hitting our wires here at the top of the hour. eurozone business growth barely seeing any acceleration for the month of march. we're just looking at the time services pmi, 53.1 for the eurozone according to market. the flash estimate was for 54. so that's coming through a bit lower than that. the final reading in february, 53.3. again, the reading we're getting now, 53.1. so we're at a 14-month low in essence. final services new business pmi for march, 52.7. also at a 14-month low. so contraction seen there, which is also a little bit weaker than what had been seen previously. so that's data just hitting our wires right now. important to mention as well, as we head into this next hour, christine lagarde still is speaking in frankfurt. the head of the imf essentially s

live from the ubs conference to talk credit strategy after this short break. >>> bank of england governor mark carney says central banks are not to blame for rising income and inequality. he hit back at politicians who attacked central bank policies accusing them of massive blame defection exercise. the governor went on to warn a hard brexit was still a real threat to the city and could push banks to move operations abroad. >>> the fed vice chair, stanley fischer admitted he was surprised by the outcome of the presidential elections. he said the world now was not where he thought it would have been last wednesday. as for implications the monetary policymaker said it was too early to assess the market impact of a trump presidency. >>> st. louis' fed president, james bullard what been speaking in the last hour. he's been saying one interest rate increase possibly in december could be sufficient to bring u.s. monetary policy to a neutral setting. he went on to say the u.s. monetary policy outlook has not changed after the election. and that from the fed's point of view, a rise in in

tight than that 6% rate over at ubs. 62 being the broader perimeters there. it's not just a uk phenomenon, lowering the s&p 500 and euro stoxx as well. if the uk votes to leave the eu. >> let's talk about the ubs position, the banks see significant room for downside if the uk votes to leave, significant moves for uk and eu equities. while the banks see sterling, quote, face significant pressure, they do see the euro as more stable. ubs also expects substantial declines in uk and euro area call yields. ken costa has joined us here. ken is a city veteran for the chairman of lazar and ken costa strugglic? an an m & a house. to share your view, what do you think should happen? >> well, i'm an in. one has doubts and skeptical thoughts about how it's all evolved. but the fact of the matter is, is this a decisive decision that's got to be made. actually, it's not just you and me, steve, that makes up his mind vote, every capital market has got his eyes fixed on you and me as we vote. if the weather is not great, how many people will turn out. it is important. it's once and for all the

i'm nancy hulgrave. these are your headlines. >> well, outflows on outflows. ubs plunges as investors focus on wealth management withdrawals instead of the bank's best profits since 2010. the ceo says the markets are to blame. >> it's not the kind of good volatility for us. it paralyzes our investors, being institutional or private. >> and bp shares suffering a similar fate, falling nearly 7% after the oil producer posts its worst annual loss in 20 years amid the collapse in crude prices. >> a digital deal. a 1.3 billion pound offer for home retail, hoping the owner of argos will boost its online business. >> and a dose of midwestern drama for you. hillary clinton squeaks by bernie sanders while ted cruz defies the polls to trump trump and take the top spot in iowa. >> tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. >>> good morning, everybody. i like that one, trump trump. >> too easy, isn't it? >> i think cruz might be using that one today. >> cruising to victory. >> the puns are all over. more on that later. we'll be talking

corporate moves this morning. ubs and dvs are under investigation by a singapore bank over potential money laundering. ubs declined cnbc's request for a comment. >>> and moody's has downgraded a bank's ratings due to an increasing likelihood of state intervention. shares at the italian bank have fallen to 4%. down 35% in the last 30 days. we have the take a quick break. but take a look. keeping abreast of all the top stories. stay with us. we're back in just a few minutes. they told me a bottle couldn't dream. that i would never become a superhero. [singing indistinctly] but i learned how to fly. just to come back in a new disguise, and be the hero i've always wanted to be. and i'm julia chairsly. there was a failed coup over the weekend. secretary of state john kerry rejects the idea of u.s. involvement in the turkey coup saying the accusations are irresponse. >>> president obama condemns the killings of three police officers in louisiana, calling for a measured response ahead of the party conventions. >> we don't need inflammatory rhettry. we don't need careless accusations thrown around

ubs as market volatility bites. >> in this environment, zero or negative rates, you make no money. or you lose your money. and in addition to that, with new regulations, you have used capital requirements. so it's a double whammy. >> but hsbc and "b" bnp-paribas. >> particularly domestic markets and international financial services have held up well. >>> pricing pressures, ground shares have lufthansa and the german airline reporting at lowest capacity for the year. >>> this right here, that's the moment leicester city players become champions for the first time in the club's 132-year history. what a celebration, against all odds. what a celebration. incidentally, our.com team has written up great stuff on that victory. if you're interested on the football details head online and take a look at the piece by our cnbc.com team. an hour of trade. we've got a lot going on. our stocks lower by 6 percentage points at the moment. we're trailing a little bit. we're being led down by basic resources stocks down. after the likes of lufthansa pulling lower. our main european markets down by some

. >> pleasure to have you. that's nick nelson. head of european strategy at ubs. >>> shifting now to global auto sector now looking at mazda recalling 2.3 million cars globally due to issues with diesel engines. japanese auto maker set to recall around 390,000 cars in japan to fix an issue with their rear gates. >>> meantime the collapse of south korea ships has rocked the global trade market. rehabilitation proceedings could start as early as this week, according to south korean judge. a court decision would allow legal actions to prvnt the seizing of ships, however a report suggests ten vessels have been held at a chinese port. >>> ryan air shares falling 1% in yesterday's trading session after the low cost carrier slashed customer forecast. the airline says it expects to fly five million fewer passengers to and from the uk in 2017 than it previously forecasted. you see them recovering some losses. up now almost 1%. >>> shares of commerzbank are still leading higher. reported deutsche bank had considered merger with the bank. deutsche bank ceo poured water on the rumor yet suggeste

, washington. >>> we are now joined by nick nelson, head of european strategy at ubs. nick, you're about to talk about the earnings, but we can't ignore the u.s. elections. how are your clients feeling about this? because there are so many twists and turns, are you telling them to steer clear of the risky assets because you don't know what is around the corner? or are you telling them to take on any positions? >> look, the difficulty is, once we get past this risk event, which is a large one, then we have three or four more between now and the end of the year. once we navigate the u.s. election, we have on december 4th here in europe the italian referendum important for italy and ren zee. we have december 8th, the ecb meeting to talk about extending qe or tight anything. and we have the expected federate hike. even once we are past the election, in a way, yes, on the actual day maybe investors don't want to have a large risk position going into it. but you have to invest over a one-year or 18-month view. and people have to have a position of sorts. >> a lot of investors are more cautious ab

headlines. >>> europe stocks flat to slightly higher with some doubting a summer fed hike. ubs telling cnbc it is the right decision. >> in my view, it's likely going to happen reflect be a stronger u.s. economy. and in that case, i don't think it's a mistake. >>> shares in seb met a record high by german rival wmf. >>> deutsche bank has been downgraded over its massive strategic overhaul. >>> and oil refineries shut down across france as protesters protest overall labor reform sparking widespread fuel shortages. >>> hi, good morning, everybody. welcome to "street signs." very glad that you're with us. we've got an hour together. packed show, jam-packed show this morning. >> that's right. >> we're trading a little bit higher on european equity markets as seen here. a little bit of a half a hump this morning. >> we did open in the red after the softness on the asia markets. about 30 minutes in, we got positive territory. >> asia, we'll have that report in a minute. here in europe, hanging on to that little bit of green. let me just show you some of the european equity markets. cac 40 up

. >> cnbc also spoke to the chairman of ubs who said european banks have a problem balancing probability while dealing with settlements from the past. >> so first what i usually say when i'm asked about the european banks is we at ubs are not a european bank. we are a swiss bank. switzerland is not part of the eu. you don't see that switzerland is part of the union. we have a totally different relationship. here we have 20,000 out of our 60,000 workforce in the u.s. so we look at ourself as a swiss bank with a big home market, 20,000 people, but also as a u.s. bank. we have a large u.s. footprint. we are in 300 cities across the u.s. for us the issue of home versus foreign and u.s. is never there. you need to focus your presence in the u.s. market as if you are a u.s. bank. you need to behave and have people run this that understand u.s. clients, that understand your legislation and you need to run thbank like that. we have not always been good and perfect on that in the past, but we are really focusing on doing things right here in the u.s. according to u.s. rules and basically playing

investors. >> you were at the ubs conference, i know a lot of heavy weighted people in the industry were there. i spoke to somebody from the emerging markets yesterday, from brazil, who was talking about how the danger is that everybody piles into the same trade. everybody goes long u.s., it's great until it isn't. he was saying it's important to diversify. >> timing is absolutely key. let's see what some other huge investors are saying out there. carl icahn has praised president-elect trump as a consensus builder saying he will help to heal the divide between american business and government. speaking at the global investment outlook summit, he also said that he believes the post-trump market rally may be overdone. he confirmed that upon leaving trump's victory party early on november 9th he bet about $1 billion on u.s. stocks. >> only a billion? >> only a billion. but has done well on that. what did bill gross say? >> taking a slightly different line. he is saying there's no trump bull market adding that the president-elect's victory signals the american economy is heading the wrong wa

to stay until the board finds a replacement. potential candidates including ub boss, and aitaly's head marco morelli. joining us to talk about this is a senior analyst. good morning, welcome back. >> good morning. >> why have things taken this thing for the worse with unicredit? that's the way it feels it's been a long way coming. >> yes, indeed, it seems that investors have lost patience in the way that the previous management was actually dealing with a number of challenges. >> and now we hear there are possibly three people who could be in for the top job. what's going make the decision for them? is it going to be based on nationality? is it going to be based on potential m & a activity, in which case the ubs executive might be the one? >> it's difficult to speculate. a discussion process has started. and we'll know by the 9th of june, we'll be taking over. it comes down to this strategic plan that unicredit will put in place after that. typically, investors are looking at the amount of potential issues. 5 to 9, 5 to 10 is the rough record of the new money that could come into

. >> it could. carlin, you're staying with us. caroline simmons is deputy head at ubs and is with us in the studio. good morning. >> good morning. >> what do you think it means? what do you think it means for markets in the short-term and longer term? >> we were risk on any way going into the election. a lot of the fundamentals are still there. clearly the focus now has returned to inflation, fiscal stimulus and what that does. the initial reaction is clearly positive towards growth and inflation, we've seen that yield curve steepening and those value stocks performing into that. there were sectors we liked any way. on financials, they do well. not only from the old curve steepening but also the potential that the fed does still hike rates in december, and that could be supportive as well for the u.s. financials. then there's also smaller element of how this infrastructure gets funded, and whether any of it is funded through the banking sector. >> on the yield curve steepening, we've gone from 1.8%, initially we saw a drop. by then from1.8% to just above 2%. at what point does this -

us from ubs. justin, the tltr rrktltros. we've got more movement with that coming up in june. >> yes we do. we have the tltro 2 take up. not easy to say but it is happening on the 24th of june. that will be the announcement how much banks will taking up at this new --. i think more importantly it will be the repayments of the first tltro. the first voluntary repayment date has been brought forward by the ecb to the 29th of june and we'll get an announcement on the 10th of june as to how much they are repaying. i remember the first tltro took place before qe. so before the ecb started injecting huge deposits into the system. and therefore what it means is banks are awash with cash we think and they will be wanting to repay that. because they can't lend that cash at positive rates. at least on a risk-free basis. but they still have to pay zero percent on deposits. so we think the net effect will be a repayment, in other words a involuntary drain of funds, reduction of the ecb's balance sheet. >> is it too toerl say whether or not the tltro experiment, is it too early to say whether or

at $49 billion. so just slightly less than that of ubs. but postal savings bank of china opening flat and closing virtually flat. seeing for the whole day, seeing the market price action of 0.1 cents. this because of the state-run -- because it's a state-run bank, there's an unwritten rule in china that prevents a state asset being sold on the cheap. so basically there's a high premium for this bank for investors to trade in. that's one of the reasons why it was so hard to float this ipo for international investors. so in order to make this ipo a success, the bank brought in six cornerstone investors, which already bought 75% or so of its shares pre-ipo. there's that lock-up period of six months. for this company and for this stock, we'll get to see the real market action six months from now. we should revisit this issue. and get this, all the cornerstone ambassadors, six of them, are chinese companies. so we basically see chinese money, beijing's pocketbook, written all over this ipo. back to you. >> thank you very much. >>> just want to get you a couple of flashes coming throug

is here from ubs, you have been on a couple times together. david, we'll start with you and just start with whether or not we're going to see any changes to global intervention given the warnings out of g7. >> i don't really think so. as we have argued, the one that could break ranks is japan because obviously they are up happy with the yen. the forecast is still 115, but it's not a popularity contest here, it's a battle. and the japanese authorities are battling against the market. so it's been well behaved. and we've given peace a chance. and i don't see that changing for a while. >> your research note, david, is full of the risk on, rest oisk . tech last week as an example, strong retail sales in the u.s. yet we risk off the dollar is stronger, the yield is lower and equities are lower. that's the risk off world. and in the risk off world, everything is correlated or equities and bonds are inversely correlated. and you look at the local stories and as endless as important as they are, there's a big local picture are. you risk on or risk off? that's the first question to ask yo

call for more direct capital sends ubs to the bottom. after they might need to raise an additional 10 billion francs. >>> hi everybody. welcome to the show. a lot lined up for you. i will be heading back out to russia eminently. here in europe, shares trading lower across the board. a handful of stocks hanging on to gains there. stoxx europe 600 down just over a percent. we're all watching the brexit vote, the days ahead of the vote next week. main european equity markets lower in the region of a percent. a little less in the ftsi. ftsi mib off 1.5%. a lot to digest in terms of what the central bankers are saying and not just the central bankers but it the fed or the ecb but the bank of japan also failing to introduce fresh stimulus, sending the yen let's not forget a 22 month high against the dollar and the nikkei to a 4 month low. these where big moves. sri is in singapore. and this important because as i was tweeting it does seem as the bank of japan is caught between a rock and a hard place at this stage. >> you nailed it. and all central banks in the run up to the brexit are b

european equity strategy from ubs nick nelson. thank you for joining us. we've been through fixed income, looking at the dollar, of course we want your view on equities. what is your reaction to the fed decision? i think it was clearly a move that was fully priced by looking at the futures markets. the move on the dots that people seem to focus on dramatically from two to three hikes next year may have unnerved some people. we're still thinking we'll get two hikes next year rather than three. there's a risk that it's quicker. from this level, i think it's okay. we're starting from very, very low interest rates, even bond yields, despite the back up to 250 on the ten-year and u.s. treasury, these are low level of yields. for the time being i don't think they worry equities. that could change if it tightens more. >> you're sticking to your forecast of two hikes next year. >> yes. >> how does that play out for european equities? until the pare back on equity last night. many have been stunned. europe seems to be missing out on the party a bit. how does that change in 2017? >> it has. you co

friday, have a nice day. enjoy your weekend. co-head of financial sponsors at ubs. >> shifting focus here. watching developments around swift. a second bank now has become the victim of a malware attack. similar to february's heist which saw $81 million stolen. they did not reveal the exact amount effected or the name of the target but did say it was a commercial bank. >> we have to say no safe harbor anywhere. this from u.s. secretary of state john kerry speaking at yesterday's anti-corruption summit in london. delegates suppressed importance of combatting illegal activities to boost global growth and fight extremism. david cameron announced a series of initiatives including that all companies holding uk property have to revul their ultimate owners. asked about the count rice contribution to anti-corruption efforts. >> i think we have some of the standards that we have developed for the oil and gas business, for the work we are doing on oil for development. programs in our development, have the focus on working how can we get the resources -- natural resources how can we get that in

time. what i want to draw your attention to, though, in stark contrast to what we heard from ubs this week as well is they did see net new money of 4.4 billion swiss coming into their asia-pacific business. he pointed out, this is an example of why our strategy is going to work. when i challenged him and said, ub said to me, we're not going to pay up for unprofitable business, he said, look, this is profitable business and this is going to be the strategy going forward and this will work. guys, investors very cautious and concerned about what they're hearing today. back to you. >> julia, good to see you this morning. thank you very much. interesting comments from the ceo there. let's look at oil, since they were talking about oil and the impact on the general markets. oil having had a real whip saw past 24 hours. we're now up towards $34 a barrel again on brent. wti crude, 32.50. talking an "squawk box" earlier, the ceo pledged to up the company's investme mtments and maintain a stable dividend. >> we will invest. that's a very important part of our message today. we're preparing ours

. meanwhile ubs has been ordered to hand over tax information for a number of current and former french clients. order made by the french administration at the question of french authorities. taking legal steps to assess the valuety of the order as it seeks to clarify on the issue. >>> goldman sacks upgraded uncredit to buy. meanwhile shares in bmps continue to fall. however after the ecb yesterday told is to slash its loans. the question is how. claudia is here with all the details. >> reporter: yes, good morning. as you can see we're getting banks moving in two directions. one bank in specific, continues to suffer on the heels of the letter that did come for the need for italy's third largest bank so shed another 10 billion in bad loans, and, of course, the possibility of a capital hike at this point being absolutely needed. the stock is trading at a all time low. worth about 1 billion after this point. this comes after the last three or four years the bank has gone through a ballout. also gone through four different capital hikes worth about 9 billion euros. continuing to be d

pockets of problems elsewhere. >> we've got deutsche bank, ubs all trading at record lows here. are they priced for what is out there, i guess is the question. >> i think we're seeing they are getting there in their pricing. i think some of it may be overdone in some examples, but broadly speaking and may believe not those big banks, but others do need to look at capitalization levels. >> more work to be done there. let's bring it back to the uk. poll sigss have to decide whether they want britain to stay in the market. made it abundantly clear that unfeu unvetted means ago access. >> the british have to make a decision what they want. the uk has voted on the referendum. there are different announcements. nobody can force the uk to make a motion. that is a decision that kl only be made in the uk. the european commission and european counsel have rightly said we will talk about the conditions when this motion is made. we won't talk about that as long as the motion hasn't been made. there have been intense negotiations before that referendum between the uk and eu to agree upon certain adju

ubs and it's underperformed the kwurpurn markets as a whole. so the shareholders hear want to hear about performance and what to do to get the price moving again and also what he has to say about the pay and compensation agreements for 2015 and the pay for the outgoing ceo because probation groups in the united states have raised their concerns about the opacity in this package. and earlier we spoke with robert mccormick. he's advising shareholders to vote no. let's hear. >> the disclosure is quite limited. they held themselves to a standard of global investment banks. and big investments being paid. they lost a considerable amount of money. and you really don't know how they got to some of these decisions. in terms of the design of the awards going forward they look good. but in terms of the amounts they grant in performance at 2015 seems quited a odds with the full performance of the company and you don't know how they got there? >> this lump sum of over $21 million which is going to be paid to 5 managers. now the frustration i think here is not only that the share price is under

ubs investment offers. >>> hillary clinton has rewritten her schedule to focus on the must win state not before she and her husband bill march in a parade in new york. meanwhile, an attempt to rush the stage at a bernie sanders stage. at least one protester faced a police baton. >>> meanwhile, donald trump has already mathematically clinched the republican nomination but still faces the possibility of an independent challenge. nbc's tracie potts is in washington and has all the details. what's the latest story here, tracie? good morning. >> good morning. well, let's start with trump and that independent challenge where one prominent republican is saying he's going to put somebody out there with a strong team and strong background to try to siphon support away from donald trump. trump doesn't seem too worried about it. he's name-calling the people behind this on twitter. but we're waiting to see who that person might be. a lot of names being thrown around, including mitt romney. the other things that you mentioned the democrats, hillary clinton is going into california earlier than he

banks. ubs sticking to the banks, it's now set to free salaries for its investment bankers in the at least mid year amid ongoing market turbulence and a steep fall that's been seen from within its share price, this according to reuters. ubs has declined to comment. shares having shed around 30% of their value so far this year. and let's talk about unicredit. the numbers helping its board to confirm support for their ceo in the face of mounting shareholder doubts of whether he should remain at the top. italy's biggest banks notching profits, flying past expectations for a loss of 140 million euros. the lender also improving its core capital ratio. our colleagues asked the ceo what he saw as the key takeaways from the results. >> what is important is the appreciation has been visible. we got some positive feedback. there's also better than expected in terms of profits and capital creation. we are massively surprised with the growth in just one quarter. so all in all, we're very happy with what we've done. clearly this is a big commitment to continue. >> so a relatively optimistic no

important operations in asia pacific and u.s. then we have sort of ubs in switzerland, which is obviously going ahead of the path for the financial crisis, and the two large french global investment banks, bmps paribas and socgen. >> what do you make of them joining on the late against the ecb? some say when you talk about the cdc, it doesn't affect them as much as other french lenders? are they trying to send a message to the ecb or is it bigger than that? >> we are following, but we can see both sides of the story. it's not for us to express judgment as to how certain exposures would be treated. we observe our credit developments evolving and reflecting in the ratings. >> what will it take in order for your outlook to go from stable to improved to strong? >> the key weakness for the global investment banks is the profitability. we think many of them will not be able to deliver profitability below cost of capital in 2017. so improvement in profitabilities on a sustainable basis. stronger controls of risk management, allowing them to control the risk management banking part of the busines

bullish on the fed and when they'll be hiking. >> now, back to the brexit story, ubs putting out a couple lines saying that sterling could fall to parity if a vote. to parity against the euro. they say they could reverse if they have a 40% chance of brexit. we'll be right back here at "street signs." keep your comments coming at louisa bojesen. >>> hi, everybody. welcome back. you're still watching "street signs." i'm louisa bojesen. it's monday. these are your monday headlines. european shares following the red with markets on course for the 30 straight month of losses. can warren buffett lift the mood? he's on "squawk box" later on. >>> and tesco shares sinking as the british supermarket tries to distance aitself from a leaked document revealing plans to ax 39,000 jobs over the next three years. >>> and banks are the biggest drag on the european markets as bernstein slashes its price target for hsbc and standard chartered sending both of those shares into the red. well, let's take a look at the u.s. futures, why don't we, here on february 29th. it's leap. it's leap year. it's lea

. we have the global ahead of emerging markets from ubs. good morning, banu. the emerging market index may have fallen for four days, but interim emerging market funds, $24 billion over the past 10 weeks, which is the highest on record. money is still flowing into emerging markets regardless at the moment. >> it's been a strong ride for em equities this year, and about time. it's been four years of dismal performance. what's interesting is the bumming bu bummibulk of the money is coming from passive funds. some people think i will get exposed to em because i've never been exposed, and i don't care about individual shares which is a pity because the large cap don't compare well with developed markets. there's not a case for passive outperformance of em. this year it's been an equity ride. it has been because the fixed income markets have been on a tear. there's some good companies in em but the question is can we extrapolate and expect the same performance from em in the next 6 to 12 months? that's a real struggle. >> you're saying don't be a passive investor for the next six mont

investment strategy at ubs wealth management. >>> a new nbc news/wall street journal poll shows that donald trump is closing the gap on hillary clinton. nbc's jennifer johnson reports. >> good evening. >> reporter: a hillary clinton/donald trump match-up in november would be a tight race according to a new nbc news/wall street journal poll showing 46% of voters supporting clinton and 43% backing trump. a big drop from a month ago when clinton held an 11% lead. >> polls this far out mean nothing. they certainly mean nothing to me. >> reporter: that same poll shows bernie sanders beating trump decisively 54% to 39%. >> i am the stronger candidate because we appeal to independents, people who are not in love with either the democratic or the republican party. >> reporter: trump is now hunting for a running mate meeting monday with tennessee senator bob corcoran. >> donald trump said many times he would like a republican insider, someone with congressional experience to help him on the republican ticket. $another brash billionaire says he would consider being trump or clinton's running m

euro dollar now at 1.14. 1.14. jeffrey is with us, ultra high investment strategist at ubs. pleasure to have you with us. 1.14 we were just looking at on the euro dollar. a couple days, 1.11, 1.13. how do you read what yellen's message was. >> i think you mentioned earlier, trying to balance things out a bit. she didn't place too much emphasis on one data point and does not make a trend. that's absolutely right. i thinks the justify of every central bank to stress that things are back on track. on the other hand, she's to be wary of the wider risks as well. upcoming political events. emerging markets fx, and a taller climate in may that's on the agenda and will be for some time. it's all about balance. what interests me is 1.14, that's right where the ecb pron projections were. >> do you think they'll change their thinking based on this? >> well, there is some tolerance in the stock projections. you know, it's not like a golden rule, if it goes above where the projections are, we'll have to be dovish. on the other hand, 1.14 anchors a 1.6% forecast. the euro is slightly higher from t

workers in six plants have been affected by the disruptions. according to ubs analyst if vw shuts down it's main mant for a week it will cost 100 million euros in gross profit. as you can see volkswagen higher by 1.3%. nonetheless a difficult situation on this one as vaccine wagon continues to deal with legal implications for the u.s. from diesel gate scandal. look, cutting back on scandal may not be the worst when you look at summer demand when it comes to car sales. let us know what you think. get in touch on e-mail. you can always get in touch with us directly on twitter. >> @"street signs." >> coming up on the show, a $4 billion bet on when palace opens its doors today, a continued slump in gaming, are they stacked in the house. join us, we're back in two. >>> good morning. welcome back to "street signs." the prime minister on medical leave until 29th of august. this comes according to his office this. after he fapted whiinted while delivering a speech sunday. he returned to the stage after a rest. he was unsteady because of the long-standing and dehydration. his heart is fine

deutsche bank, credit swiss, ubs trading at or around record lows. what does this say for the banking sector. and the big question is the italian banks. real hit once again to confidence in those. we keep hearing all sorts of rumors about potential bailouts being organized, being discussed. i've not yet heard anything credible. question is what is mario draghi thinking. he's probably going to avoid answering on that one too. so i'm not quite sure what we get, but he's going to spend 30 minutes answering questions. >> it will be interesting. one of these days where the press conference becomes the focus here. stay with us we are joined by barn bi marten. thank you for joining us this morning. i want to pick up first with somebody julia is talking about. that is the scarsty problem when we talk about bonds. >> i think it's inevitable they have to do something to give themselves more access to government debt going forward. there's no hope of euro zone inflammation getting back to 2% which is draghi's definition. he has trick up his sleeve to alleviate that in the short-term so h

. >> let's get a check on ubs and credit suisse. both companies are under pressure after the swiss government agreed that strict too big to fail banking rules. and the more stuff. switzerland will now have one of the highest capital requirements in the world. meanwhile today is dividend date and neftly adding to pressurine pressure. >> 71% fall in first quarter net income. as restructuring of their shareholding ties with their parent group continue. the french bank said that its restructuring of these ties as well as weakness in retail and investment banking weighed on these earnings. i'm kind of liking our black and white theme today. >> -- [inaudible]. >> as long as it's not krewella devil. >> speaking of retail. adidas and chelsea have now blown the whistle on their kits partnership. kit means gear in english. >> sports stuff. >> agreed to end their 30 million pound a year deal at the end of next season instead of 2023. chelsea society set to pay around 4 million pound for this termination fee. adidas shares have risen by more than 50% over the last 12 months. >> louiza this mig

work to do is the chairman of ubs that told cnbc that europe needs a fresh direction. and that it's, quote, backward looking leaders are losing support. let's listen to him. >> european leadership should give european people an idea that europe is worth having and fighting for. what unfortunately has happened over the recent years is that in some of these crises firefighting modes, european populations have lost their confidence. divisions are what used to be positive about europe. europe needs to take their own people on board again and give them a view of europe that is a positive one where europe for its own benefit can be much more influential and much more powerful where it's just not seeing that happen. they need a new agenda and vision for europe. unfortunately what we're seeing is more isolist behavior. instead of ratcheting in the integration they have achieved, there's a setback with more in-looking policies and more divisive policies and people are trying to re-erect fences and borders, which i think is the wrong direction. >> are we being led in the wrong direction by bu

the european banks trading off by around 10 to almost 20%. unicredit. soc gen. ubs off 8%. mark carney has said this morning t governor of the bank of england, talking about this 200 billion pound currency reserve. and also saying they have stress tested the banks further. and the auto sector. indiscriminate selling taking place as well. with these stocks off in the region of 6 to 13%. and sterling. massive moves in sterling overnight. 15 cent range. never seen that. wild swings between around 134 to 150. we're currently 139. so we've come back from that 134 level earlier. sterling against the euro off just over 4%. 124 and sterling against the yen, 143. so there you have a safe haven trade against a very volatile trade one could argue with regards to the safe haven yen moves. but the final declaration has been made. as we've been saying. the leave camp emerging victorious with 51.9% of the vote. remain trails with 48.1%. in terms of the regional breakdown it is interesting because london and scotland stand out as the only regions that voted to stay in the eu. northern, central, easter

h some of that. >> nick nelson from ubs, great to talk to you. >>> sterling is under pressure as the whole brexit campaign is making ground. coming up, boris johnson tells us why he's not that worried. >> this value will be determined according to the strength of the uk economy. and i have every reason to think that the uk economy would prosper mightily outside the european union which is currently democratically and economically, i believe, holding us back. >>> welcome back to "street signs." accor is attempting to thwart jin jiang's stake in the economy from 29% to trigger a public offering. >>> china's fosun group is in advanced talks to take a 15% stake in the company des alpes. they specialize in ski resorts and parks. back in march the minister said cbc would retake stake in the economy. >>> and china's suning is looking to buy 68.55% stake in intermilan's club. how is it going there? >> reporter: yes, there's talk of the indonesian tycoon buying this up. it has not been a strong couple of years for the football team, so it is perceived as a positive outcome in the sense that t

extending losses. the alliance could see the brazilian miner take up to 15% stake. however, ubs is just among some analysts casting doubt, saying they didn't believe vale would be able to buy the shares up. off almost 3%. let's get another look at the ftse 350 mining index. we had seen quite a strong relief rally here when we look back to the january 20th lows. a big progression upwards of around 70% before yesterday's movement. overall, this index is off about 46% as you can see there. nevertheless, we're getting a pop today with miners up about 1% so far in the session. well, joining us now for more on the sector is a mining analyst at invest tech. we've heard so many mixed messages when it comes to miners. we continue to watch the volatility in the commodity space when it comes to metal prices. there was some optimism we had seen iron ore in particular hit a bottom here. then we got a note from goldman sachs, other analysts suggesting fundamentals have not changed. do you agree? >> precisely. we were saying the same thing ourselves. we put out a note earlier this year suggesting that

. its mercger is on track. it announced a 3% dividend. ubs has raise the its price target on the stock as well. >> have you ever bet on anything? >> i have to admit, identi've d few horse betting. just when you're actually at the event. >> how do you choose what to bet on? >> the name. a few football matches here and there. but that's because my better half is into it. >> intercontinental shares trading higher after profits hit $680 million, beating forecasts. the company saw its highest room openings since 2009. the luxury resorts company also surprised investors by raising its dividend from 77 to 85 cents. we spoke to the ceo in a first on cnbc interview. we asked him what impact a potential brexit would have on his business. >> we operate in 100 countries. the u.k. is about 5% of our business. continental europe, about 10%. the impact i think will be manageable. i think we'll have to listen to the arguments as the discussion continues. >> meanwhile, shares in united technologies rose more than 4.5% in yesterday's trade after it confirmed honeywell had approached the company about a

the europeans because there's still a lot of work to do at barclays, deutsche and ubs. >> why hasn't this happened earlier? we are ten years on from the financial crisis beginning, almost ten years? >> i'm older than anybody sitting here. and what i have seen is a lot of down sense in the banking sector. the oil crisis collapse in the early '80s. you came out of it quite sharply. same after tnt. we have not seen that revenue boost. in fact, big chunks of the investment market just went away and disappeared into the ether after the subprime situation. so we have not had the lovely strong revenues to allow banks to restructure, sort themselves out, while they are still general generally generating decent returns. >> i think that has been the problem for companies globally. you were talking earlier about deflation, we are in such a low inflation environment that revenue growth can't support the bottom line. with margins basically tapped out, particularly in the u.s., i think the question is how do the banks remain somewhat profitable while they get their house in order. to me that's the

like barclays, ubs and morgan stanley. this goes ahead, if it goes ahead, this would be the biggest group in years. >>> tesco is one of the biggest pension schemes in britain with around 350,000 members. this comes after the retailer is looking to recover from the accounting scandal from two years ago. >>> coming up, today is the day of the announcement of the dates. stay tuned, we'll hear more about renzi's referendum as the italian prime minister finally gets set to tell us when that vote is going to happen. >>> and we are going to go for a quick break, but do keep in mind that you can check out world markets live on our blog that runs throughout the european trading day. we'll be back in two, don't go away. >>> welcome, you're watching "street signs." i'm caroline roth. >> and i'm louisa bojesen. >> deutsche bank has hit a new low after angela merkel ruled out any stake in the lender. >>> and crude output fades despite tough talk from host algeria. >>> rubber making lanxess bounces to the top of the stoxx 600 after going after chemtura to buy them in $2.1 billion in cash. >>> and

investment strategy at ubs wealth management. >> thank you. >> so january is coming to a close, nancy. can you believe it? >> a month to forget, really, when you think about it. >> i'll kick it off with an obvious one. an oil price chart. the price of oil hasn't been able to be ignored over the course of this past month. there's been such a massive correlation between what we're seeing in oil and what we're seeing in other asset class, especially equities. we don't usually see that. remembering we hit these highs of some 50, 60 back in november. there have been these reports about whether or not opec could be working together with russia or saudi to try to decrease production, although we've also been hearing those reports aren't true. we heard that from an opec official. those are not confirmed comments at this point in time. definitely oil is going to continue to be one to watch heading into the year. >> definitely a factor, louisa, as we talk about the correlation with equities prices. i want to take the lead with the dow transports. when we talk about the relationship between that dram

or ubs and deutsche over here, we're still looking at going through further restructuring in terms of head count because that's such a big part of the cost-income ratio. >> what are your thoughts on exposure to emerging markets, specifically when we talk about the larger em exposed banks, that being hsbc, standard chartered among them. will that turn into good news for the banks as we get into quarter two? >> standard charter is the big play in that regard. it has been -- stock price has more than halved since last summer. >> all right. well, simon, thank you very much for your perspective. well, get in touch with us early here. we want to get your questions into the guests. we want to know what you think about the quarter that's about to pass and what you expect for the second quarter. the various sectors you're investing in. we'll be talking more about metals coming up, especially on the gold price, which is now set for an extremely long record when we talk about its biggest rally in nearly 30 years. get in touch on twitter. @nancycnbc. still to come here on "street signs," national